Toast total locations in 2026
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Toast total locations in 2026 will be above 189 thousand, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~24h): Model for 'Above 195 thousand' increased +13.7pp (model_led), flipping the edge as market held steady.
- Headline model probability rose +0.4pp, improving its edge against the market by +0.4pp.
- Model for 'Above 198 thousand' rose +10.0pp (model_led), compressing the edge as market held steady.
- Model for 'Above 192 thousand' decreased -6.5pp (model_led), compressing the edge as market held steady.
- Above 189 thousand locations appears highly likely given Q1 2026 net additions.
- Increased sales and marketing spend makes 195,000 total locations plausible.
- Continued investment and positive guidance support growth towards 198,000 locations.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 198 thousand | 30.0% | 28.5% | Market higher by 1.5pp |
| Above 189 thousand | 99.0% | 98.8% | Market higher by 0.2pp |
| Above 204 thousand | 12.0% | 8.1% | Market higher by 3.9pp |
| Above 195 thousand | 62.0% | 65.7% | Model higher by 3.7pp |
| Above 207 thousand | 7.0% | 7.1% | Model higher by 0.1pp |
Current Context
Toast expanded its location count and recurring revenue in Q1 2026. As of March 31, 2026, the company served approximately 171,000 locations, marking a 22% year-over-year increase [^][^][^][^][^]. Annualized Recurring Run-Rate (ARR) reached $2.2 billion in Q1 2026, a 26% increase from the prior year [^][^][^]. The GAAP operating income margin exceeded 20% for the first time during this quarter [^][^].
Toast's outlook for 2026 shows increased guidance and new AI offerings. For the full fiscal year 2026, Toast raised its guidance, projecting recurring gross profit growth of 21%–23% and Adjusted EBITDA between $790 million and $810 million [^][^][^][^]. Recent developments include the launch of Toast IQ Grow, which integrates AI agents [^][^]. Wall Street sentiment is generally positive, with a consensus buy rating and a mean price target of $34 as of July 2026, with models indicating long-term potential from platform scale and AI integration [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This contract, which appears to resolve based on whether Toast's total location count exceeds 189,000 in 2026, has shown a decisive, early move to near-certainty. The market opened on July 1 at a high probability of 93.0% and shifted to 99.0% by July 10. It has remained static at that level since. The initial high probability reflects that traders were already incorporating publicly available data from Toast's Q1 2026 financial results.
The key driver for this price action is Toast's reported location count of approximately 171,000 as of March 31, 2026, representing a 22% year-over-year increase. The market's rapid repricing from 93.0% to 99.0% indicates that early participants calculated that the company's established growth trajectory made surpassing the 189,000 location threshold within the year a near certainty. No subsequent news was required; the price jump was simply the market digesting the implications of the most recent quarterly report.
Total volume is extremely light at just 12 contracts, suggesting very limited participation and low liquidity. Despite the thin trading, the price stability at 99.0% points to a firm consensus among the few active traders. The chart shows no meaningful resistance, having moved directly to its effective ceiling early in the period. Overall market sentiment reflects overwhelming confidence that Toast will meet the condition for a YES resolution.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the "Above 195 thousand" market, a YES resolution occurs if Toast Inc. reports over 195,000 total locations in 2026; a NO resolution occurs if they report 195,000 or fewer. The outcome is verified by Fiscal.ai. This market, which opened on June 23, 2026, will close after the outcome occurs (or by March 31, 2028, at 1:00 AM EDT if not earlier) with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 189 thousand | $0.99 | $0.07 | 99% |
| Above 195 thousand | $0.69 | $0.37 | 62% |
| Above 198 thousand | $0.35 | $0.70 | 30% |
| Above 201 thousand | $0.22 | $0.83 | 19% |
| Above 204 thousand | $0.12 | $0.94 | 12% |
| Above 207 thousand | $0.10 | $0.96 | 7% |
| Above 210 thousand | $0.08 | $0.98 | 6% |
| Above 192 thousand | $0.90 | $0.16 | 0% |
Market Discussion
As of March 31, 2026, Toast, Inc. served approximately 171,000 restaurant locations, representing a 22% year-over-year increase [^][^][^][^][^]. For the full year 2026, Toast announced guidance for non-GAAP subscription services and financial technology solutions gross profit between $2,290 million and $2,320 million, and Adjusted EBITDA between $790 million and $810 million [^][^][^][^]. Social media commentary in July 2026 showed generally bullish sentiment toward Toast (TOST) [^][^][^].
4. How might the adoption rate of Toast's new AI-powered tools, like Toast IQ Grow, in Q2 and Q3 2026 influence its total location count by year-end?
| Toast IQ weekly active locations | 40,000 weekly active locations (as of early July 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Total Toast locations | 171,000 total locations (as of March 31, 2026) [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Toast IQ Grow sales lift | Average 8% sales lift for pilot customers [^][^][^] |
Toast's AI tools primarily boost customer value, retention, and monetization. These new AI-powered tools, such as Toast IQ Grow, are expected to enhance customer value, retention, and monetization throughout Q2 and Q3 2026 [^][^][^]. They are considered a value-add for retaining existing customers and expanding Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), rather than a direct driver of new location acquisition [^][^][^].
Toast IQ sees substantial adoption, with Grow showing significant sales increases. As of early July 2026, Toast IQ, the AI analytics and agent platform, is actively utilized by 40,000 weekly locations, representing approximately one in four of Toast's 171,000 total locations [^][^][^]. A significant component, Toast IQ Grow, an AI-powered marketing agent, has demonstrated an average 8% sales increase for its pilot customers [^][^][^].
New location acquisition is driven by enterprise and international expansion. While management views the adoption of Toast IQ and other AI tools as a structural advantage that fosters customer value, retention, and monetization [^][^][^], new location acquisition continues to be primarily driven by broader enterprise and international expansion initiatives [^][^][^]. For example, Toast added 7,000 net new locations in Q1 2026, reaching a total of 171,000 live locations by March 31, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^].
5. How does Toast's customer acquisition cost (CAC) and new location growth rate compare to its primary POS competitors, Square and Clover, in H1 2026?
| Toast Total Live Locations Q1 2026 | Approximately 171,000 (as of Q1 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Toast YoY Location Increase Q1 2026 | 22% [^][^][^] |
| Toast Net Location Additions Q1 2026 | 7,000 [^][^][^] |
Toast significantly expanded its live locations during the first quarter of 2026. As of Q1 2026, Toast reported approximately 171,000 total live locations [^][^]. This represents a 22% year-over-year increase and a net addition of 7,000 locations during that quarter [^][^]. Industry forecasts project Toast's total locations to surpass 189,000 by the close of 2026 [^].
Direct comparison data for competitors' H1 2026 metrics is unavailable. Exact, standardized H1 2026 customer acquisition cost (CAC) figures for Toast, Square, and Clover are not explicitly disclosed in the available information [^][^][^][^]. Similarly, specific new location growth rates for competitors Square and Clover in H1 2026 are not provided [^][^][^][^]. This lack of data prevents a direct comparison with Toast's new location growth and CAC during this period [^][^][^][^].
6. Based on Toast's revised 2026 financial guidance, what is the implied budget for sales and marketing, and how does this investment level correlate with historical location acquisition rates?
| Q1 2026 Sales & Marketing (GAAP) | $156 million [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 S&M Expense Increase | 20% year-over-year [^][^] |
| Prediction Market 2026 Locations | 195,000 total locations [^][^] |
Toast's Q1 2026 sales and marketing expenses saw a significant increase. The company reported sales and marketing expenses of $156 million (GAAP) and $141 million (non-GAAP) for the first quarter of 2026 [^][^]. This figure represents a 20% year-over-year increase, aligning with management's stated priority of continued investment in go-to-market initiatives [^][^]. This elevated spending was intended to support location growth and market share expansion [^][^]. While a fixed annual budget for the full year 2026 has not been disclosed, management emphasized ongoing investment for growth [^][^].
Investment directly supports Toast's location acquisition strategy and growth targets. The increased Q1 2026 sales and marketing spending was specifically allocated to bolster "customer acquisition momentum" and "strong location growth," maintaining a consistent pattern where higher spending levels are linked to efforts to expand the company's restaurant platform footprint [^][^]. Prediction markets project that Toast will achieve 195,000 total locations in 2026 [^][^]. This forecast implies that Toast aims to add approximately 31,000 net new locations in 2026, exceeding its reported 164,000 locations as of December 31, 2025, to meet the market's target [^][^]. However, available information does not provide an implied annual sales and marketing budget for 2026 beyond the Q1 figures and the general emphasis on ongoing investment for growth [^][^].
7. What public datasets, such as restaurant opening/closing statistics, can serve as leading indicators for Toast's net location additions in Q2 and Q3 2026?
| Q1 2026 Net Location Adds | Approximately 7,000 [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Unprofitable Operators | 42% in prior year [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Restaurants at Risk of Closure | 10-15% in 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
Frequently updated restaurant opening and closing datasets are key leading indicators. These datasets, particularly those tracked geographically, serve as the most actionable public leading indicators for Toast’s net location additions in Q2 and Q3 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Restaurant openings provide a strong leading indicator for gross location additions, as Toast monetizes new deployments as they go live [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Conversely, closings help estimate net additions by offsetting openings, especially in markets experiencing high restaurant churn [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Specific, recently verified restaurant-focused sources include opening records for Jersey City [^], closure records for Los Angeles [^], and Florida closure tracking, updated in July 2026 [^]. These sources offer direct proxies for new merchant locations and aid in estimating churn or location losses [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Broader industry trends provide important context for restaurant unit dynamics. Macro insights into business formation and attrition can be derived from industry benchmarks such as ICSC [^] and Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) [^]. This context is crucial, given that Toast added approximately 7,000 net new locations in Q1 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. However, the restaurant industry faces significant challenges, with 42% of operators reporting unprofitability in the prior year, and an estimated 10-15% of restaurants are at risk of closure in 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Aggregating city and state-level datasets across major Toast markets allows for the development of a directional nowcast for Q2 and Q3 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^].
8. What do economic indicators for the U.S. restaurant industry, such as the Restaurant Performance Index, project for the second half of 2026, and how could this affect Toast's location churn rate?
| Restaurant Performance Index (April 2026) | 99.8 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Toast Live Locations (March 31, 2026) | Approximately 171,000 [^][^][^][^] |
| Toast Net New Locations (Q1 2026) | 7,000 [^][^][^][^] |
The U.S. restaurant industry faces a cautious outlook for the second half of 2026. The Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) stood near neutral at 99.8 in April 2026, with an Expectations Index of 100.4, despite ongoing soft traffic and only modest sales gains [^][^][^][^][^]. Macroeconomic conditions projected for July 2026, including higher inflation expectations and rising Treasury yields, are expected to increase operating costs for restaurants and potentially reduce consumer spending [^][^][^][^]. This could elevate the risk of location churn within the industry [^][^][^][^]. However, a complete industry forecast for the entire second half of 2026 is currently unavailable, making the overall projection incomplete [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Toast's location churn rate could modestly increase if restaurant demand softens. If demand remains resilient in the second half of 2026, Toast's churn rate would likely stay closer to recent levels, suggesting a cautious, slightly negative churn bias overall [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Toast management reported stable consumer trends and resilient customers during Q1 and Q2 2026, indicating that churn risk remains managed, despite a 1% decrease in Gross Payment Volume (GPV) per location in Q1 [^][^]. As of March 31, 2026, Toast had approximately 171,000 live locations, reflecting 22% year-over-year growth and the addition of 7,000 net new locations in Q1 2026 [^][^][^][^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Toast's growth trajectory includes serving approximately 171,000 locations as of March 31, 2026, reflecting a 22% year-over-year growth [^] [^] . The company projects 20-22% annual growth in recurring gross profit for 2026, alongside an Adjusted EBITDA guidance in the range of $775 million to $810 million [^][^]. Key bullish catalysts in 2026 include the scaling of the Toast IQ Grow AI platform, active in 40,000 locations [^][^], expansion into retail and international markets [^], and continued share buybacks [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 31, 2028
- Closes: March 31, 2028
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Toast's growth trajectory includes serving approximately 171,000 locations as of March 31, 2026, reflecting a 22% year-over-year growth [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The company projects 20-22% annual growth in recurring gross profit for 2026, alongside an Adjusted EBITDA guidance in the range of $775 million to $810 million [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Key bullish catalysts in 2026 include the scaling of the Toast IQ Grow AI platform, active in 40,000 locations [^] [^] , expansion into retail and international markets [^] , and continued share buybacks [^] .
- Trigger: However, several bearish risks persist.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
