Short Answer

Toast's total locations in Q1 2027 are not expected to exceed 196 thousand. Sequential deceleration in net location adds, a significant FTC lawsuit, and a CFO transition are likely to temper sales momentum and net additions through Q1 2027.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Total locations likely fall below 196 thousand, driven by sequential net addition deceleration.
  • October 2026 FTC lawsuit and CFO transition create dual risks for sales momentum.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 196 thousand 0.0% 0.0% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 200 thousand 0.0% 0.0% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 202 thousand 0.0% 0.0% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 204 thousand 0.0% 0.0% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 206 thousand 0.0% 0.0% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.

Current Context

Toast reported 189,000 locations in Q3 2026, with decelerating net additions. The company's total locations as of September 30, 2026, reached approximately 189,000, marking a 21% year-over-year increase [1][2][3][4]. Net new locations added in Q3 2026 totaled 8,500, a decline from the 9,500 net additions in Q2 2026, which was a record for that quarter [4][5][6][7]. For earlier periods in 2026, Toast reported approximately 171,000 locations in Q1 (22% YoY growth) and 180,000 in Q2 (22% YoY growth) [8][9][5]. Baird analysts project Toast's total base could grow from 134,000 locations at year-end 2024 to 244,000 by year-end 2028, implying 30,000-35,000 net additions annually [10][11]. Separately, Toast's total monetization take rate reached 104 basis points in Q3 2026, up 6 bps year-over-year, having crossed the 1% threshold in Q1 2026 [2][9]. SaaS gross margin exceeded 80% for the first time in Q1 2026, reaching 81% [2][9].
Q4 2026 guidance suggested slower growth, impacting market sentiment for 2027. Toast's Q4 2026 guidance projected recurring gross profit growth of 22-24%, a decrease from 27% in Q3, and adjusted EBITDA of $200-210M, lower than Q3's $240M [4][6][7]. Management attributed these projections to seasonality and deliberate investment [4][6][7]. Following the Q3 2026 earnings report on November 3, 2026, Toast's stock fell approximately 5-6% after hours [6][7][12]. This decline occurred despite a revenue beat and raised full-year guidance, driven instead by an EPS miss ($0.29 versus $0.37 expected), the sequential Q4 guide-down, slowing net location additions, the departure of CFO Elena Gomez effective year-end 2026, and an FTC lawsuit filed October 29, 2026 [6][7][12]. Michael Senno, SVP Finance, will assume the CFO role at the start of 2027 [1][13][12][14]. Formal guidance for 2027 is expected on the February 2027 earnings call, with management indicating 2027 will remain within a "20%-plus" recurring gross profit growth framework alongside "modest" margin progression [1][13][12][14]. MarketWatch anticipates the Q4 2026/FY2026 earnings report around February 18, 2027, and Q1 2027 earnings around May 2027 [15][16][17].
Sources (17)
  1. 1Toast Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
  2. 2Toast Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptbenzinga.com
  3. 3Toast Inc. (via Public) / Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending September 30, 2026 (Form 10-Q)ebs.publicnow.com
  4. 4Documentsec.gov
  5. 5Toast (TOST) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  6. 6Toast (TOST) — Earnings Reaction & Valuation | Sikuli Researchsikuliresearch.com
  7. 7Toast Raises Its Profit Outlook and Names a New CFO, and TOST Slips After Hours Anywayoptionspilot.app
  8. 8Toast (TOST) Has Restaurant Scale. Can It Defend the...finance.yahoo.com
  9. 9Toast (TOST) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  10. 10Toast, Clover battle for small eateriesfinance.yahoo.com
  11. 11Toast, Clover battle for small eateries | Restaurant Diverestaurantdive.com
  12. 12Earnings call transcript: Toast Q3 2026 profit miss sparks after-hours drop By Investing.cominvesting.com
  13. 13Piper Sandler reiterates Toast stock rating on Q3 beat By Investing.cominvesting.com
  14. 14TOST Q3 FY2026 earnings callfinance.biggo.com
  15. 15TOST | Toast Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatchmarketwatch.com
  16. 16Toast Inc (71Y) Q1 2026 Earnings Reporttipranks.com
  17. 17Toast (TOST) Earnings Date, Estimates & Call Transcriptsmarketbeat.com

2. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A 'Yes' resolution occurs if Toast's total locations for Q3 2026 are above the specified threshold (e.g., above 196,000), while a 'No' resolution occurs if they are at or below that threshold. Trading for this market ends on May 6, 4:00 PM EDT, and it is currently listed as "Launching soon," meaning trading has not yet commenced.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 196 thousand $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 200 thousand $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 202 thousand $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 204 thousand $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 206 thousand $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 208 thousand $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 210 thousand $0.00 $1.00 0%

Market Discussion

Toast announced approximately 189,000 total locations as of September 30, 2026, after adding around 8,500 net new locations during Q3 2026 [1][2]. Based on its recent quarterly growth trajectory (7,000-9,500 net new locations), total locations for Q1 2027 are likely to fall within the 195,000-205,000 range [1][3][4][5]. A prediction market for 'Toast total locations in 2026' reflects high confidence for 'Above 189 thousand' (93-99% probability) and moderate confidence for 'Above 195 thousand' (65%), despite limited liquidity and low overall market quality [6][7].

Sources (7)
  1. 1Toast Q3 Earnings Call Highlights AI Growth and 2027 Outlookau.finance.yahoo.com
  2. 2Toast Misses The EPS Bar But Raises Guidance A Third Time As Slowing Payments Growth And A 'Very Modest' 2027 Margin Signal Complicate The Storyfinviz.com
  3. 3Toast Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Bakersfield.combakersfield.marketminute.com
  4. 4Toast Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
  5. 5Toast Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
  6. 6Toast total locations in 2026 Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  7. 7Toast total locations in Q2 - Result: above 176 thousand | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

3. What net location growth guidance for FY2027, provided in the Q4 2026 earnings call, would confirm or contradict current analyst expectations?

FY2027 Revenue Analyst Consensus$8.85-8.86 billion [1][2][3]
FY2027 EPS Analyst Estimates$1.70-1.77 [1][2][3]
Q3 2026 Net New Locations8,500 [4][5][6]
Specific analyst expectations for net location growth remain unavailable. The provided research does not contain sufficient information to determine what net location growth guidance for FY2027, given in the Q4 2026 earnings call, would confirm or contradict current analyst expectations. While analyst expectations for FY2027 revenue and earnings per share (EPS) are available, specific projections for FY2027 net location growth are not included in the given facts [1][2][3].
Financial estimates provide context for overall company growth projections. Analyst consensus for FY2027 revenue ranges from approximately $8.85 billion to $8.86 billion, with EPS estimates averaging $1.70 to $1.77 [1][2][3]. This implies roughly 18-19% revenue growth in FY2027, based on an estimated FY2026 revenue of approximately $7.47 billion [1][2][3]. On the Q3 2026 earnings call, management expressed confidence in a '20% plus framework' for 2027 recurring gross profit growth, with formal FY2027 guidance anticipated on the February 2027 earnings call, scheduled for February 18, 2027 [4][5][7].
Current analyst expectations for location growth are not explicitly stated. Explicit current analyst expectations for FY2027 net location growth or for total locations in Q1 2027 that could be confirmed or contradicted by management's guidance are not included in the provided facts. For context, Toast concluded Q3 2026 with approximately 189,000 total locations, adding 8,500 net new locations during that specific quarter [4][5][6].
Sources (7)
  1. 1TOST Stock — Toast, Inc.: Analyst Estimates - Equiblesequibles.com
  2. 2Toast Inc (TOST) Outlook: What's Priced In | QuarterlyIQquarterlyiq.com
  3. 3Toast Inc (TOST) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and Analyst Predictionsadvfn.com
  4. 4Toast (TOST) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  5. 5Toast (TOST) — Earnings Reaction & Valuation | Sikuli Researchsikuliresearch.com
  6. 6Toast (TOST) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  7. 7Toast Inc. Analyst Estimates - TOSTmarketwatch.com

4. What do recent analyst reports from firms like Baird forecast for Toast's net location additions in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027?

Total Locations Q3 2026189,000 [1][2]
Forecasted Locations by EOY 2028244,000 [3]
Projected Total Locations Q1 2027195,000-200,000 [4]
Baird's long-term projections suggest consistent annual net location growth. Baird's January 2026 Equity Research projected Toast to grow from 134,000 locations at the end of 2024 to 244,000 by the end of 2028, implying approximately 30,000 net additions annually over that period [3]. However, neither the Baird report nor Toast management provided specific guidance for net location additions for Q4 2026 or Q1 2027 [3][1]. Toast management stated on the Q3 2026 earnings call that formal 2027 guidance would be provided in February 2027, with the RGP growth algorithm for 2027 expected to mirror 2026's performance with '20%-plus' growth [1].
External analyses provide insights into Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 location additions. Toast reported 189,000 total locations as of September 30, 2026 (Q3 2026) [1][2]. Sikuli Research noted approximately 8,500 net additions in Q3 2026, which represented an 18% annualized unit growth before churn, and Q4 2026 was guided to 22-24% RGP growth [5]. For Q1 2027, one analyst modeled net location additions in the range of 7,700-8,250, surpassing the consensus of 7,000-7,500 for seasonal Q1 additions [6]. The Kalshi prediction market projects the total for Q1 2027 to be around 195,000-200,000, centering between 195,000-198,000, based on Q3 2026 trends and historical Q1 patterns, where Q1 2026 saw 7,000 net locations added [4].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Toast (TOST) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  2. 2Toast Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
  3. 3Toast on Sale?newsletter.stablebread.com
  4. 4Toast total locations next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  5. 5Toast (TOST) — Earnings Reaction & Valuation | Sikuli Researchsikuliresearch.com
  6. 6TOST - Toast, Inc. Stock Priceperplexity.ai

5. How does Toast's rate of new location acquisition in 2026 compare to that of key competitors like Block (Square) and Lightspeed?

Toast Total Locations Q3 2026Approximately 189,000 [1][2]
Lightspeed Total Locations Q1 FY2027Approximately 146,000 [3][4][5][6][7]
Toast Record Net New Locations Q2 20269,500 [1][8][9][2]
Toast significantly expanded its location base throughout 2026. The company added approximately 7,000 net new locations in Q1, followed by a record 9,500 in Q2, and around 8,500 in Q3 [1][8][9][2]. This robust growth trajectory increased Toast's total locations from approximately 164,000 at the end of 2025 to roughly 189,000 by September 30, 2026, marking a substantial 21-22% year-over-year expansion [1][2]. The company's strategic expansion efforts extended beyond core restaurant markets into new sectors such as enterprise, international, and retail [10].
Lightspeed demonstrated more modest location growth compared to Toast. As of the end of Q1 FY2027 (June 2026), Lightspeed reported approximately 146,000 total customer locations, having added about 1,300 net new locations in that quarter [3][4][5][6][7]. The company's primary growth engines, encompassing North American retail and European hospitality, collectively accounted for approximately 99,000 locations and achieved a 10% year-over-year increase [3][4][5][6][7]. For the full fiscal year 2026, these growth engines collectively added about 9,400 net customer locations, with Lightspeed targeting a 10-15% three-year compound annual growth rate in customer locations [7][11][12].
Direct comparison with Block's Square platform remains challenging due to reporting differences. Block does not publicly disclose restaurant-specific location counts, instead reporting a broader figure of 'more than 4.5 million sellers' across all its diverse verticals [13][10][14][15][16]. Despite this lack of direct comparison data, Square's food and beverage Gross Payment Volume (GPV) showed strong performance, growing 20% in Q2 2026 [16][17]. Furthermore, mid-market sellers continued to be Square's fastest-growing segment, which indicates significant momentum within its restaurant vertical [16][17].
Sources (17)
  1. 1Documentsec.gov
  2. 2Toast Inc. (via Public) / Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending September 30, 2026 (Form 10-Q)ebs.publicnow.com
  3. 3Is Lightspeed (TSX:LSPD) undervalued?cantechletter.com
  4. 4https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/lightspeed-commerce-q1-earnings-call-highlights-2026-07-31/marketbeat.com
  5. 5Lightspeed Commerce Inc (LSPD) (Q1 2027) Earnings Call Highlights: Revenue Surges 17%, AI...sg.finance.yahoo.com
  6. 6Lightspeed Commerce Q1 Earnings Call Highlightsfinance.yahoo.com
  7. 7Lightspeed Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2026 Financial Results and Provides Outlook for Fiscal 2027br.advfn.com
  8. 8Documentsec.gov
  9. 9Documentsec.gov
  10. 10Toast vs Square vs Clover (2026): POS Costs Compared · Hyperresearchhyperresearch.ai
  11. 11Lightspeed Commerce Q4 Earnings Call Highlights — Noticias de TradingViewes.tradingview.com
  12. 12LSPD Transcript - FY2026Q2 AI Summary - Intellectia AI™intellectia.ai
  13. 13Toast, Square jockey on POS discountspaymentsdive.com
  14. 14Block's Square Expands OpenTable Tie-Up: Can Restaurant Adoption Grow? — TradingView Newstradingview.com
  15. 15Point of Sale Statistics 2026: Vendor Scale and Payment Mix • CoinLawcoinlaw.io
  16. 16Square Statistics 2026: GPV, Sellers, Take Rate, and the Yield Gap Closing Behind It - Axis Intelligenceaxis-intelligence.com
  17. 17Block Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Raised Outlook and AI Push - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com

6. Based on Toast's historical reporting patterns, what is the expected release date for the official Q1 2027 total location count?

Projected Q1 2027 Earnings Release DateMay 6, 2027 (Thursday) [1][2][3][4]
Expected Q1 2027 Total Location Count ReleaseMay 6, 2027 [5][6][7][8]
Q1 2027 SEC 10-Q Filing DeadlineMay 11, 2027 [9][10][11][12]
Toast is expected to release its Q1 2027 total location count on May 6, 2027. This projected release date, a Thursday, aligns with the company's historical practice of announcing Q1 results and the total location count in the first week of May, typically on a Thursday, after market close [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8].
Toast's historical data confirms its consistent early May Q1 reporting. For example, Q1 2026 results were released on May 7, 2026, and Q1 2025 on May 8, 2025 [3][13][14][15][6][7][16]. The official Q1 2027 total location count is anticipated to be detailed in both the earnings press release and the subsequent 10-Q filing [5][6][7][8]. Toast consistently files its 10-Q report around the earnings release date, well in advance of the SEC's deadline, which for Q1 2027 is May 11, 2027 [9][10][11][12].
Sources (16)
  1. 1Toast Stock Price | TOST Stock Quote, News, and Historymarkets.businessinsider.com
  2. 2Toast (TOST) earnings date and fiscal calendar 2027earnings.fru.dev
  3. 3Toast Termine | finanzen.atfinanzen.at
  4. 4Toast earnings (Q1 FY2027): May 6, 2027 | Calendarcalendar.fru.dev
  5. 5Toast, Inc. Form 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2026sec.gov
  6. 6Toast Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
  7. 7Documentsec.gov
  8. 8Toast Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
  9. 9SEC Filing Calendar: When Companies Report (2026) | AssetRoomassetroom.net
  10. 102026 EDGAR Filing Calendar | Broadridgebroadridge.com
  11. 11SEC Filing Deadlines 2026: Complete Calendar for All Formsedgarscout.com
  12. 122026 SEC Filing Deadlines and Staleness Dates for Public Companies | Publications | Kirkland & Ellis LLPkirkland.com
  13. 13TOST Historical Earningshistoricalearnings.com
  14. 14Toast Q1 2026 results due May 7 after close | TOST Stock Newsstocktitan.net
  15. 15Toast Announces Release Date Of First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Nasdaqnasdaq.com
  16. 16TOST Historical Earningshistoricalearnings.com

7. What is the potential impact of the October 2026 FTC lawsuit and the CFO transition on Toast's sales momentum through Q1 2027?

FTC Lawsuit Filing DateOctober 29, 2026 [1]
CFO Transition Effective DateDecember 31, 2026 [2][3][4][5][6]
Projected Q1 2027 LocationsApproximately 188,816 [7][8][9][10][11]
Toast faces dual risks impacting sales momentum through Q1 2027. An FTC lawsuit filed in October 2026 and a CFO transition could affect the company's sales momentum, customer retention, conversion, and execution during a period targeted for strategic growth investment [1][2][5][12][13]. While Toast reported strong Q3 2026 results and raised its full-year guidance, a deceleration in location acquisition velocity from Q2 to Q3 2026 suggests potential moderation in growth [2][5][7][8][9]. A Kalshi prediction market median projects approximately 188,816 total locations for Q1 2027 [10][11].
The FTC lawsuit poses material uncertainty for Toast's fintech segment. Initiated on October 29, 2026, the regulatory action accuses Toast of hidden fees, unauthorized $0.99 order processing fees, deceptive 'Pay-as-you-Go' pricing, and difficult cancellation processes that include undisclosed early termination fees of $150 per month per remaining contract month [1][14][15][16]. Toast had previously disclosed a draft of this complaint in June 2026 [12][17]. This lawsuit creates material uncertainty for its fintech segment, which accounts for 82% of quarterly revenue, as management cannot quantify the potential financial loss [12][13]. The legal action may also necessitate changes to Toast's commercial practices, potentially affecting customer retention and conversion rates [1][2][5][12][13].
The CFO transition introduces execution risk during planned growth investments. Effective December 31, 2026, Elena Gomez will step down as President and CFO, with Michael Senno assuming the CFO role on January 1, 2027 [2][3][4][5][6]. This leadership change carries execution risk, particularly as Toast plans investments in new growth areas such as enterprise, international, retail, and artificial intelligence [1][2][5][12][13]. Incoming CFO Michael Senno has indicated that Toast expects very modest margin progression in 2027, prioritizing flexibility for growth investments over immediate margin expansion [5]. In Q3 2026, Toast reported approximately 189,000 total locations, adding about 8,500 net new locations, following a record approximately 9,500 net additions in Q2 2026 which brought total locations to about 180,000 [2][5][7][9].
Sources (17)
  1. 1FTC and States Take Action Against Toast Inc. over Hidden and Unauthorized Fees, Deceptive Subscription and Cancellation Practices and Other Unlawful Conductftc.gov
  2. 2Toast Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Resultssec.gov
  3. 3FIS, Toast CFOs exit | Payments Divepaymentsdive.com
  4. 4Toast, Inc. CFO transition: Michael Senno to succeed Elena Gomez | CFO Tribunecfotribune.com
  5. 5Toast (TOST) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
  6. 6Toast (TOST) names Michael Senno its next CFO, succeeding Elena Gomeztheearningsmadness.com
  7. 7Toast (TOST) Q3 2026 Earnings: Results, Market Reaction & History | 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
  8. 8Toast Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Bakersfield.combakersfield.marketminute.com
  9. 9Documentsec.gov
  10. 10Toast total locations in 2026: Odds & Chart | 4Search Finance4search.com
  11. 11Toast total locations in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  12. 12Toast Q2 Earnings: 23% Revenue Growth Balanced by FTC Regulatory Riskspanabee.com
  13. 13Toast, Inc. (NYSE: TOST) — The Winner Proved the Moat; the Stock Collected the Proof | FactorsTodayfactorstoday.com
  14. 14https://coag.gov/app/uploads/2026/10/Toast-Redacted-Complaint-Filed.pdfcoag.gov
  15. 15Toast sued by FTC, states, accused of charging hidden feesbostonglobe.com
  16. 16FTC, states sue Toast over fees, deceptive subscription practices By Reutersinvesting.com
  17. 17Toast Expands Adyen Partnership to U.S., Strengthening Payment Backbone - TOST News - EveryTickereveryticker.com

8. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Toast guides Q4 2026 subscription and fintech gross profit growth at 22%-24% YoY and adjusted EBITDA at $200M-$210M [1][2]. Full-year 2026 recurring gross profit growth is projected at 26%, with adjusted EBITDA at $840M-$850M and an EBITDA margin of approximately 36% [1][2]. Management expressed confidence in over 20% recurring gross profit growth for 2027 and expects "very modest margin progression"; formal 2027 guidance will be provided on the February 2027 earnings call [3][1][2]. Additionally, the company announced a CFO transition, with Michael Senno taking over effective January 1, 2027, following Elena Gomez's departure after the Q3 2026 earnings report [4][3][2].
Operating models project year-end 2026 locations at 196,694 and year-end 2027 at 230,694, implying approximately 196,000-197,000 locations for Q1 2027 [5]. BofA Securities forecasts roughly 34,400 net additions in fiscal 2027 [6]. Bull case scenarios suggest 2027 recurring gross profit growth of 24%, re-accelerated net adds, EBITDA of approximately $1.12B with 150bp margin expansion, and a 24x EV/EBITDA multiple [3]. Bear case scenarios envision 2027 recurring gross profit growth of only 17%, EBITDA of approximately $950M with flat margin, and a stock de-rating to 14x EV/EBITDA [3]. Key risks for 2027 include hardware memory cost increases, the FTC case potentially changing contract terms, Toast Capital retained loan credit losses, and flat GPV per location [3][2][7][8]. The new TAM segments (enterprise, international, retail) are scaling, expected to reach $200M ARR in about 4 years and to double for the second straight year in 2026 [1][2][9]. The Kalshi prediction market for Toast total locations in Q1 2027 closes March 6, 2027 [10], with the Q1 2027 earnings report expected around May 2027 [10].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 03, 2027
  • Closes: September 03, 2027
Sources (10)
  1. 1Toast Inc (TOST) AI Stock Analysistipranks.com
  2. 2Toast (TOST) Expects 'Very Modest Margin Progression' In 2027, Choosing Investment Over Profit Gainsbullished.co
  3. 3Toast (TOST) — Earnings Reaction & Valuation | Sikuli Researchsikuliresearch.com
  4. 4Toast Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
  5. 5Toast operating model · Gary Wuguoweiwu.com
  6. 6Toast set to report earnings as software upsell strategy faces test By Investing.cominvesting.com
  7. 7Toast, Inc. (NYSE: TOST) — The Winner Proved the Moat; the Stock Collected the Proof | FactorsTodayfactorstoday.com
  8. 8Toast: The 9,500-Restaurant Quarter Didn't Print Cashainvest.com
  9. 9Toast Shares Dip Post-Market Despite Beating Revenue Estimates as Hardware Inventory Weighs on Cash Flowts2.tech
  10. 10Toast Q1 2026 results due May 7 after close | TOST Stock Newsstocktitan.net