Zoom customers with over $100k in TTM revenue in Q2
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing for Zoom customers with over $100k in TTM revenue in Q2 2027 above 4575, with model probability at 12.0% versus market probability at 0.0%. This divergence is driven by consistent quarter-over-quarter growth, strategic product expansion, and increased enterprise sales focus.
1. Executive Verdict
- Counts above 4575 appear likely from consistent quarterly customer base expansion.
- Non-core products and enterprise sales focus likely drive high-value acquisitions.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4575 | 0.0% | 12.0% | Consistent quarter-over-quarter growth and strategic expansion suggest a continued upward trend for Q2 FY2027. |
| Above 4600 | 0.0% | 12.0% | Consistent quarter-over-quarter growth and strategic expansion suggest a continued upward trend for Q2 FY2027. |
| Above 4625 | 0.0% | 12.0% | Consistent quarter-over-quarter growth and strategic expansion suggest a continued upward trend for Q2 FY2027. |
| Above 4650 | 0.0% | 5.0% | Consistent quarter-over-quarter growth and strategic expansion suggest a continued upward trend for Q2 FY2027. |
| Above 4675 | 0.0% | 2.0% | Consistent quarter-over-quarter growth and strategic expansion suggest a continued upward trend for Q2 FY2027. |
Current Context
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price action consists of a single, sharp upward movement. The contract opened at a 1.0% probability and spiked 83 percentage points to its current level of 84.0% on August 7, 2026. This move constitutes the entire trading history, establishing a clear but untested upward trend. The provided context does not specify a direct news catalyst for the timing of this particular spike.
The 84.0% price implies high market confidence that Zoom will report more than 4,575 customers with over $100k in trailing 12-month revenue. This sentiment is anchored by fundamental data; Zoom reported 4,534 such customers at the end of Q1 FY2027, a figure just 0.9% below the resolution threshold. The key technical factor, however, is volume. The market has registered zero traded contracts. This indicates the price move was not the result of buying and selling activity forming a consensus. Instead, it likely reflects an initial pricing adjustment by a market maker based on the available fundamental data.
Given the complete absence of trading volume and only two data points, no meaningful support or resistance levels can be identified. The current price of 84.0% represents a high quoted probability, but it is not a level validated by market participation. The lack of volume suggests conviction is untested and liquidity is non-existent. The price reflects an estimate based on prior earnings reports, not a collectively held market view. The next major catalyst will be the Q2 FY2027 results, scheduled for release on August 25, 2026.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 07, 2026: 83.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 84.0%
Outcome: Above 4575
What happened: The provided web research does not indicate any social media activity from key figures or viral narratives as a primary driver for the prediction market spike on August 7, 2026. Zoom Video Communications reported 4,274 customers with over $100k in TTM revenue for Q2 FY2026 [^], which is below the "Above 4575" market threshold [^]. Given the lack of external news or social media catalysts and the reported financial data, the 83.0 percentage point spike, described as an "often unexplained shift" in algorithmic prediction market reports [^], appears to be primarily driven by market structure factors or automated trading. Social media was irrelevant in this instance.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market concerns the number of Zoom customers with over $100k in TTM revenue for their Q2 fiscal year. For a contract like "Above 4575", a "YES" resolution occurs if the reported number of such customers is greater than 4575, and a "NO" resolution occurs if it is 4575 or less. Trading for this market ends on August 25 at 4:00 PM EDT, with a maximum payout date of December 22, 2026, based on the relevant Q2 results.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4575 | $0.92 | $0.16 | 0% |
| Above 4600 | $0.61 | $0.46 | 0% |
| Above 4625 | $0.26 | $0.82 | 0% |
| Above 4650 | $0.10 | $0.98 | 0% |
| Above 4675 | $0.05 | $0.99 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Zoom reported 4,534 customers contributing over $100,000 in trailing 12-month (TTM) revenue as of the end of Q1 Fiscal Year 2027 (ended April 30, 2026), marking an 8.2% year-over-year increase [^][^][^][^][^]. However, actual Q2 Fiscal Year 2027 financial results, including specific customer cohort data, were not yet available as of August 8, 2026, although Zoom provided Q2 revenue guidance between $1.265 billion and $1.270 billion [^][^][^]. For historical context, in Q2 FY2026, enterprise customers with over $100,000 in TTM revenue grew approximately 9.00% year-over-year and accounted for 32.00% of Zoom's total revenue [^][^][^][^][^].
5. What has been the quarter-over-quarter growth rate for Zoom's customers with over $100k in TTM revenue over the past eight fiscal quarters?
| Customers >$100k TTM (Q1 FY25) | 3,883 [^] |
|---|---|
| Customers >$100k TTM (Q1 FY27) | 4,534 [^] |
| Highest QoQ Growth Rate | 2.54% (Q1 FY26) [^] |
Zoom's high-value customer base expanded significantly over eight quarters. The company observed a consistent increase in its customer base contributing over $100,000 in trailing 12-month (TTM) revenue. This segment grew from 3,883 customers in Q1 FY25 to 4,534 customers by Q1 FY27 [^].
Quarter-over-quarter growth rates varied, showing fluctuations and trends. The quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) expansion for these high-value customers fluctuated between 1.29% and 2.54%. Specific growth rates included 1.29% in Q2 FY25, 2.33% in Q4 FY25, and a peak of 2.54% in Q1 FY26, before moderating to 1.48% in Q1 FY27 [^].
6. How does Zoom's enterprise suite offering and pricing for its current fiscal year compare against primary competitors like Microsoft Teams and Cisco Webex?
| Zoom Workplace contracts | Separate, negotiated enterprise contracts (current fiscal year) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Microsoft Teams pricing | Frequently bundled with Microsoft 365 (E3/E5), potentially lower cost [^][^][^] |
| Zoom Fiscal Year 2027 End | January 31, 2027 [^][^] |
Zoom's enterprise offerings differ significantly from bundled competitor solutions. Its enterprise suite, including Zoom Workplace for the current fiscal year, typically necessitates separate, negotiated enterprise contracts. In contrast, Microsoft Teams is often bundled with Microsoft 365 (E3/E5) subscriptions, which can result in a functionally lower cost for enterprises already operating within the Microsoft ecosystem [^][^][^].
Specialized organizational needs benefit from Zoom and Webex's distinct features. Despite the bundling advantage for Microsoft Teams, Zoom Workplace and Webex Suite maintain a competitive edge for organizations with specialized requirements. These include specific needs such as contact centers, robust external collaboration capabilities, and advanced telephony features [^]. Zoom's current fiscal year, referred to as fiscal year 2027, is scheduled to conclude on January 31, 2027 [^][^].
7. What impact is Zoom's expansion into non-core products like Zoom Phone and Contact Center expected to have on new >$100k customer acquisitions in H1 2026?
| ZCC $100k+ ARR Customer Growth | 94% year-over-year (Q2 FY2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Total $100k+ TTM Customers (Q2 FY2026) | 4,274 [^][^] |
| Total $100k+ TTM Customers (Q1 FY2027) | 4,534 [^][^] |
Zoom's non-core products significantly drive high-value customer acquisitions. The company's strategy to acquire new customers with over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR) is substantially fueled by its expansion into offerings such as Zoom Phone and Contact Center. These products are strategically positioned to attract high-value enterprise accounts and compete directly with legacy systems. A key aspect of this approach is bundling these "better together" products, including Workplace, Phone, and Contact Center, which is crucial for securing large deals and transforming enterprise engagement with Zoom's services [^][^][^][^][^].
Zoom Contact Center demonstrates strong growth in high-value customer contributions. Zoom Contact Center (ZCC) has shown robust performance, with the number of customers contributing more than $100,000 in ARR increasing by 94% year-over-year as of Q2 FY2026. This growth highlights the effectiveness of Zoom's expanded product portfolio in capturing significant enterprise value. While the total number of customers generating over $100,000 in trailing 12-month (TTM) revenue steadily increased from 4,274 in Q2 FY2026 to 4,534 by Q1 FY2027, specific data regarding the number of new >$100k customer acquisitions exclusively for H1 2026 is not explicitly available in the provided research [^][^][^][^][^].
8. What does public job posting data from Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 reveal about Zoom's hiring focus for enterprise sales roles compared to Microsoft?
| Zoom Enterprise Customers | 4,534 by end of Q1 fiscal year 2027 (ending April 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Zoom Enterprise Customer Growth | Approximately 8-9% year-over-year [^][^][^][^] |
| Microsoft Sales Hiring Freeze | March 2026 [^] |
Zoom aggressively expanded enterprise sales, particularly its Denver-based teams. During Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, Zoom actively accelerated its enterprise sales hiring efforts, specifically focusing on building out Denver-based sales development teams to support enterprise growth [^][^][^]. This strategic push aligned with the consistent expansion of Zoom’s enterprise customer base, defined as those generating over $100k in trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue. This segment reached 4,534 customers by the end of Q1 fiscal year 2027 (ending April 2026), reflecting an approximate 8-9% year-over-year growth trajectory [^][^][^][^].
Microsoft implemented hiring freezes and workforce reductions in sales. Conversely, Microsoft initiated a hiring freeze affecting its North American sales and cloud teams beginning in March 2026 [^]. The company further executed workforce reductions in July 2026, specifically impacting commercial sales, consulting, and Industry Solutions Delivery staff [^][^]. These actions signify a strategic shift by Microsoft, prioritizing the deployment of engineers directly into customer environments for AI support over expanding sales headcount [^][^].
9. How do analyst forecasts from firms like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs for Zoom's Q2 FY2027 enterprise customer count align with the market's implied expectations?
| MS/GS Q2 FY2027 Forecasts | Not available for Zoom's enterprise customer count (> $100k TTM revenue) [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Zoom Enterprise Metric Reporting | Standalone 'enterprise customer count' discontinued since Q1 FY2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Wall Street Q2 FY2027 Analyst Estimates | Approximately 4,233 for >$100k TTM revenue customers, contrasting with Q1 FY2027 figure of 4,534 [^] |
A direct comparison of analyst forecasts with market expectations is currently unfeasible. It is not possible to assess how analyst forecasts from firms like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs for Zoom's Q2 FY2027 enterprise customer count align with market-implied expectations. The available evidence does not contain confirmable forecast values from either Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs for Zoom’s Q2 FY2027 enterprise customer count, defined as customers contributing more than $100,000 in trailing 12-month revenue. Furthermore, a direct comparison is impossible because a market-implied consensus number for this specific key performance indicator cannot be derived from standard syndicated consensus datasets [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Zoom discontinued reporting its standalone enterprise customer metric in Q1 FY2026. This change reflects a shift in emphasis towards revenue and the customer-contribution benchmark instead of a specific customer count [^][^][^][^][^][^]. As a result, a widely published Q2 FY2027 “enterprise customer count consensus” is generally unavailable for comparison against individual analyst notes. While some Wall Street analyst estimates for Zoom's customers generating >$100k TTM revenue for Q2 FY2027 have been reported around 4,233, which is lower than the Q1 FY2027 figure of 4,534, these estimates are not specifically attributed to Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs, and a formal market-implied expectation for this exact KPI is not confirmed [^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Zoom is scheduled to release its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2027 on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, after market close [^] [^] [^] . As of Q1 fiscal year 2027, which ended April 30, 2026, Zoom reported 4,534 customers contributing more than $100,000 in trailing 12-month revenue. This represented an 8.2% year-over-year increase [^][^][^].
Bullish catalysts include enterprise AI agent adoption, expansion of the AI Companion suite, strong cash flow, and potential value realization from its Anthropic investment [^] [^] [^] . These factors may support future performance.
Conversely, bearish risks include competitive pressure from bundled rivals such as Microsoft Teams, stagnant top-line revenue growth observed near 5%, and rising Online segment churn [^] [^] [^] . (WAIT)" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^]. These elements present headwinds to growth.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: December 23, 2026
- Closes: December 23, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Zoom is scheduled to release its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2027 on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, after market close [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: As of Q1 fiscal year 2027, which ended April 30, 2026, Zoom reported 4,534 customers contributing more than $100,000 in trailing 12-month revenue.
- Trigger: This represented an 8.2% year-over-year increase [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Bullish catalysts include enterprise AI agent adoption, expansion of the AI Companion suite, strong cash flow, and potential value realization from its Anthropic investment [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
