SoFi members in Q3
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- SoFi members likely surpass 16.7 million, driven by accelerating net additions.
- Q2 2026 additions suggest total members may reach or exceed 17.0 million.
- Total members expected to exceed 16.9 million, aligning with 30% YOY guidance.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 16.9 million | 46.0% | 56.4% | Model higher by 10.4pp |
| Above 17 million | 27.0% | 34.4% | Model higher by 7.4pp |
| Above 16.8 million | 65.0% | 62.9% | Market higher by 2.1pp |
| Above 17.2 million | 9.0% | 5.4% | Market higher by 3.6pp |
| Above 16.7 million | 82.0% | 76.8% | Market higher by 5.2pp |
Current Context
Sources (15)
- 1SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings...public.com
- 2SoFi Earnings Date & Event Calendarwallstreethorizon.com
- 3SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Investor Relations, Earnings Summary & Outlookquartr.com
- 42026 Q2 Earnings Releaseinvestors.sofi.com
- 5SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) - SoFi Reports Second Quarter 2026 with Record Net Revenue of $1.2 Billion, Record Member and Product Growth, Net Income of $157 Millioninvestors.sofi.com
- 6Total Loan Originations at a record $14.8 billionsec.gov
- 7SoFi's unchanged profit forecast tempers record quarter...reuters.com
- 8SoFi Reports Second Quarter 2026 with Record Net Revenue of $1.2 Billion, Record Member and Product Growth, Net Income of $157 Millions27.q4cdn.com
- 9SoFi Technologies Q2 2026 results and new initiativesstocktitan.net
- 10Sources: Notre Dame passes Ohio State for richest patch deal - ESPNespn.com
- 112026-27 National Football League important datesnfl.com
- 12Packers 2026 Training Camp Dope Sheetstatic.clubs.nfl.com
- 13SoFi Stadium approved to host Super Bowl LXI in 2027nfl.com
- 14TGL playoffs: What to watch in the semifinals - ESPNespn.com
- 15ESPN.com - How to watch the 2026 TGL playoffs, championship on ESPNespn.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 16.9 million
📈 August 13, 2026: 20.0pp spike
Price increased from 33.0% to 53.0%
Outcome: Above 16.8 million
📈 August 12, 2026: 48.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 49.0%
Sources (10)
- 1SoFi Shares Rise 8% as Softer Inflation Alters Market Profit Testts2.tech
- 2SOFI Stock Grinds Higher As Earnings Beat Fuels Bull–Bear Battletimothysykes.com
- 3SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ: SOFI) Posts 40% Revenue Surge As Member Growth Hits Record Paceforeignpolicyjournal.com
- 4The 5 Most Interesting Analyst Questions From SoFi’s Q2 Earnings Call - StockStorystockstory.org
- 5SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) - SoFi Reports Second Quarter 2026 with Record Net Revenue of $1.2 Billion, Record Member and Product Growth, Net Income of $157 Millioninvestors.sofi.com
- 62026 Q2 Earnings Releaseinvestors.sofi.com
- 7SoFi Q2 revenue jumps 43% as lending business hits new high -区块周刊BlockWeeksblockweeks.com
- 8SoFi members in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 9SoFi (SOFI) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 10SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the "Above 16.9 million" contract, a "YES" resolution occurs if SoFi's Q3 member count is greater than 16.9 million. Conversely, a "NO" resolution triggers if the Q3 member count is 16.9 million or less. Trading for this market ends on October 30, 4:00 PM EDT, and the maximum payout date is stated as February 26, 2027; no other special settlement conditions are specified.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 16.7 million | $0.88 | $0.21 | 82% |
| Above 16.8 million | $0.65 | $0.39 | 65% |
| Above 16.9 million | $0.50 | $0.55 | 46% |
| Above 17 million | $0.27 | $0.76 | 27% |
| Above 17.1 million | $0.20 | $0.90 | 10% |
| Above 17.2 million | $0.08 | $0.99 | 9% |
| Above 17.3 million | $0.08 | $0.99 | 4% |
Market Discussion
SoFi reported 15.8 million total members as of Q2 2026, representing 35% year-over-year growth, and management has maintained its full-year 2026 guidance for at least 30% total member growth [1][2]. Prior to the July 29, 2026, earnings release, prediction market participants indicated a high probability of a Q2 2026 earnings beat [3][4][5]. Social media sentiment in August 2026 was mixed, with bearish tendencies on platforms like Reddit (31% bullish) but higher bullishness reported on prediction markets (57%) and aggregate sentiment indices (score 78/100) [3][6].
Sources (6)
- 12026 Q2 Earnings Releaseinvestors.sofi.com
- 2SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) - SoFi Reports Second Quarter 2026 with Record Net Revenue of $1.2 Billion, Record Member and Product Growth, Net Income of $157 Millioninvestors.sofi.com
- 3SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Reddit Mentions & Stock Sentimentadanos.org
- 4Will SoFi (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 5veykos · Terminalveykos.com
- 6SoFi (SOFI) Sentiment Analysis: Bullish or Bearish? Score 78/100 | AltIndexaltindex.com
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. What are Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates for SoFi's total members at the end of Q3 2026?
| Target Members (End of 2026) | Approximately 17.2 million [1] |
|---|---|
| Total Members (Q2 2026) | 15.8 million [2] |
| Expected Member Growth (Full Year 2026) | At least 30% year-over-year [2][3][4] |
7. How did SoFi's member growth rate in H1 2026 compare to key fintech competitors like Robinhood and Block Inc.?
| SoFi H1 2026 Member Growth | 35% year-over-year [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Robinhood H1 2026 Funded Customer Growth | Approximately 6% to 7% year-over-year [3] |
| SoFi Total Members Q2 2026 | 15.8 million [1] |
Sources (5)
- 1Adjusted Net Revenue up 41% to a record $1.1 billionsec.gov
- 2Sofi Technologies, Inc. quarterly report, Q2 FY2026 (NASDAQ:SOFI) | MetaTradermetatrader.com
- 3Q2 2026 Earnings Presentationinvestors.robinhood.com
- 4SoFi Stock Forecast 2026: Latest News, Earnings, Risks and SOFI Price Prediction - zinpediazinpedia.co.uk
- 5Robinhood vs Fidelity Statistics 2026: Comparison • CoinLawcoinlaw.io
8. How might the recent acquisitions of Peach Finance and Composer Securities influence SoFi's product adoption and member growth in Q3 2026?
| SoFi Total Members Q2 2026 | 15.8 million (Q2 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| SoFi Total Products Q2 2026 | 24.4 million (Q2 2026) [1][2] |
| Expected Members Q3 2026 | Exceeding 16.9 million [3][4][5] |
Sources (7)
- 1Sofi Technologies, Inc. quarterly report, Q2 FY2026 (NASDAQ:SOFI) | MetaTradermetatrader.com
- 2Sofi Technologies, Inc. quarterly report, Q2 FY2026 (NASDAQ:SOFI) | MetaTradermetatrader.com
- 32026 Q2 Earnings Releaseinvestors.sofi.com
- 4SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Investor Relations, Earnings Summary & Outlookquartr.com
- 5SoFi Stock Forecast 2026: Latest News, Earnings, Risks and SOFI Price Prediction - zinpediazinpedia.co.uk
- 6SoFi Ventures Into AI Investing With Composer Acquisitionpymnts.com
- 7SOFI Stock Trades Below Its Highs. Here’s What the Composer Acquisition Means for the Growth Story | TIKR.comtikr.com
9. What has been SoFi's historical quarter-over-quarter net member addition trend from Q3 2024 through Q2 2026?
| Total Members Q2 2026 | 15.814 million [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Net Member Additions Q2 2026 | 1,120,000 [2] |
| Net Member Additions Q3 2024 | 756,000 [2] |
10. What level of member growth is implied by SoFi management's full-year 2026 revenue and EPS guidance?
| 2026 Member Growth Guidance | At least 30% year-over-year [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Adjusted Net Revenue Guidance | $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion (32% to 35% growth) [5][1][2][6] |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS Target | Approximately $0.60 per share [5][1][2][6] |
Sources (6)
- 1SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Earnings Report Q1 2026 | Beat, EPS & Revenue | 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
- 2SoFi CEO Anthony Noto Calls 2026 A 'Defining Year' Amid...finance.yahoo.com
- 3SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFIW) Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call Transcript - January 30, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
- 4Adjusted Net Revenue up 41% to a record $1.1 billionsec.gov
- 5SoFi's unchanged profit forecast tempers record quarter...reuters.com
- 6SoFi Technologies (SOFI) investor relations materialquartr.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: February 27, 2027
- Closes: February 27, 2027
Sources (15)
- 1SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings...public.com
- 2SoFi Earnings Date & Event Calendarwallstreethorizon.com
- 3SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Investor Relations, Earnings Summary & Outlookquartr.com
- 4SoFi members in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 5SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) - SoFi Reports Second Quarter 2026 with Record Net Revenue of $1.2 Billion, Record Member and Product Growth, Net Income of $157 Millioninvestors.sofi.com
- 6Adjusted Net Revenue up 40% to a record $1.2 billioninvestors.sofi.com
- 7SoFi (SOFI) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfinance.yahoo.com
- 8SOFI Stock Grinds Higher As Earnings Beat Fuels Bull–Bear Battletimothysykes.com
- 9SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) climbs 13%, but tougher margin outlook sets higher bar for second halfts2.tech
- 10Prediction: SOFI’s Next Chapter Could Be Its Most Important Yet - 24/7 Wall St.Octagon Agent247wallst.com
- 11SoFi shares recover initial drop after earnings, with outlook calling for 26% EBITDA increase in second halfts2.tech
- 12Sources: Notre Dame passes Ohio State for richest patch deal - ESPNespn.com
- 13SoFi Stadium workers' union reaches deal to avoid strike during World Cup - ESPNespn.com
- 142026 NFL Schedule Release | NFL.comnfl.com
- 152026 NFL schedule release: Rams to host Packers in inaugural Thanksgiving Eve game on Netflixnfl.com