Clear+ members in Q3
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Clear+ members to be Above 8.4 million in Q3 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- CLEAR+ members likely grow above 8.4 million, following 8.329 million active members in Q2 2026.
- Growth above 8.6 million is less probable; Q3 typically has slower sequential additions.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 8.4 million | 0.0% | 1.0% | Clear Secure expects continued member growth in Q3 2026 from 8.329 million, supported by historical trends. |
| Above 8.45 million | 0.0% | 0.9% | Clear Secure expects continued member growth in Q3 2026 from 8.329 million, supported by historical trends. |
| Above 8.5 million | 0.0% | 0.8% | Clear Secure expects continued member growth in Q3 2026 from 8.329 million, supported by historical trends. |
| Above 8.55 million | 0.0% | 0.7% | Clear Secure expects continued member growth in Q3 2026 from 8.329 million, supported by historical trends. |
| Above 8.6 million | 0.0% | 0.5% | Growth beyond Q3 2025 rate is less probable; Q3 is historically slower for net additions. |
Current Context
Clear Secure reported strong Q2 2026 membership growth and profitability. The company reported 8.3 million active CLEAR+ members and 43.5 million total CLEAR members as of June 30, 2026, the close of Q2 2026 [^][^][^]. Clear Secure's Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 36.4% in Q2 2026, surpassing its long-term IPO target of 35% for the first time [^][^].
Clear Secure provided Q3 2026 revenue and bookings guidance. For Q3 2026, the company issued guidance forecasting revenue of $284 million to $287 million, with total bookings projected between $311 million and $316 million [^][^][^]. Clear Secure expects negative free cash flow in Q3 2026 due to the settlement of an accrued partnership liability with its card partner [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market repriced sharply upward on a single event. The probability of CLEAR+ members exceeding 8.4 million in Q3 2026 jumped 62 percentage points on August 07, 2026, moving from 1.0% to 63.0%. This spike was a direct reaction to Clear Secure's Q2 2026 financial results, which were announced on or around August 5. The company reported 8.3 million active CLEAR+ members for the quarter ending June 30, positioning the 8.4 million Q3 target as highly achievable with minimal sequential growth.
The current price of 63.0% indicates that the market now views the outcome as more likely than not. However, with zero contracts traded, this price reflects an initial pricing adjustment rather than a consensus forged by active participants. The lack of volume means market conviction is untested and no technical support or resistance levels have been established. The chart simply shows a binary shift in sentiment based on the new fundamental data from the Q2 earnings report.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 07, 2026: 62.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 63.0%
Outcome: Above 8.4 million
What happened: The 62.0 percentage point spike in the "Clear+ members in Q3" market for "Above 8.4 million" on August 07, 2026, was primarily driven by the traditional news announcement of Clear Secure's Q2 2026 financial results. Announced on or around August 5, 2026, the report revealed 8.329 million active CLEAR+ members for Q2 [^][^][^][^]. Although this was slightly below 8.4 million for Q2, the company also reported record Free Cash Flow of $189 million for Q2 2026, a 60% year-over-year increase [^], indicating strong underlying financial health and likely signaling robust growth potential for Q3. This positive outlook, emerging from the earnings call, led market participants to significantly raise their probability for Q3 members exceeding 8.4 million. Social media activity appears to be irrelevant, as no specific posts from influential figures or viral narratives were identified in the provided sources to explain the movement.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market concerns the total number of Clear+ members in Q3. For the "Above 8.4 million" contract, a "Yes" resolution is triggered if the number of Clear+ members in Q3 exceeds 8.4 million; otherwise, a "No" resolution is triggered (meaning the count is 8.4 million or below). The market ends on November 5, 6:00 am EST, with a maximum payout date of March 5, 2027. The provided content does not specify the exact data source for settlement.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 8.4 million | $0.71 | $0.37 | 0% |
| Above 8.45 million | $0.49 | $0.59 | 0% |
| Above 8.5 million | $0.29 | $0.79 | 0% |
| Above 8.55 million | $0.19 | $0.89 | 0% |
| Above 8.6 million | $0.09 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Above 8.65 million | $0.07 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Above 8.7 million | $0.06 | $0.99 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Clear Secure, Inc. announced 8.329 million active CLEAR+ members as of June 30, 2026, as part of its Q2 2026 financial results [^][^]. This prior quarter's member count was a subject of prediction markets, with platforms offering various thresholds for the Q2 2026 active CLEAR+ member count, such as 8.2 million, 8.3 million, and 8.4 million [^][^][^].
5. What potential partnership announcements or airport expansions in Q3 2026 could significantly accelerate CLEAR+'s member growth?
| CLEAR+ Airport Availability | 62 airports (as of Q2 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| eGates Presence | 50 airports (as of June 30, 2026) [^][^][^] |
| New Q2 2026 Locations | Northwest Arkansas (Bentonville) and Indianapolis [^][^] |
CLEAR+ significantly expanded its operational footprint and technological infrastructure. In Q2 2026, new locations at Northwest Arkansas (Bentonville) and Indianapolis brought the total number of airports where CLEAR+ is available to 62 [^][^]. A key strategic initiative throughout 2026 is the network-wide rollout of eGates, with 50 airports currently operational as of June 30, 2026 [^][^][^].
Corporate partnerships and existing momentum drive expected growth. To foster member growth, CLEAR+ utilizes partnerships with corporate travel platforms, such as Perk (formerly TravelPerk), offering preferred rates to corporate clients and integrating enrollment into existing travel workflows [^]. Management anticipates the strong active member growth observed in Q2 2026 will continue into Q3 2026 [^]. However, based on available information, no specific new partnership announcements or airport expansions planned for Q3 2026 have been identified that would significantly accelerate this anticipated growth [^].
6. How does the value proposition and recent enrollment growth of CLEAR+ compare to its primary competitor, TSA PreCheck?
| CLEAR+ Annual Cost | $209 per year [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| TSA PreCheck Annual Cost (Avg.) | $16 per year for five years [^][^][^] |
| CLEAR+ Active Members (Q2 2026) | 8.329 million [^][^] |
CLEAR+ and TSA PreCheck offer complementary, distinct airport security benefits. CLEAR+ is a private, biometric-based service that enables travelers to bypass the document and ID check line at security [^][^][^][^][^]. In contrast, TSA PreCheck is a government program offering expedited physical screening, which allows travelers to keep on shoes and laptops through security at over 200 airports [^][^][^][^][^]. These services are complementary rather than directly competitive [^][^][^]. CLEAR+ is positioned as a premium option due to its higher annual cost of approximately $209, compared to TSA PreCheck's more cost-effective rate of about $16 per year for a five-year membership [^][^][^]. The premium expense of CLEAR+ is often justified by frequent travel or credit card reimbursements [^][^][^].
CLEAR+ shows consistent membership growth, reaching over 8 million active members. As of June 30, 2026, CLEAR reported 8.329 million active CLEAR+ members [^][^]. This figure demonstrates steady sequential and year-over-year growth from 8.167 million in the first quarter of 2026 and 7.399 million in the third quarter of 2025 [^][^]. The exact number of active CLEAR+ members for the third quarter of 2026 is currently unavailable, as CLEAR had not released its Q3 2026 financial results as of August 8, 2026 [^]. The provided information does not include recent enrollment growth or membership numbers for TSA PreCheck.
7. Based on Clear Secure's historical performance, what is the typical quarter-over-quarter growth for CLEAR+ members in Q3?
| Active CLEAR+ Members (June 30, 2026) | 8.3 million [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Active CLEAR+ Members (Q3 2025) | 7.399 million [^][^][^] |
| Q3 2025 Sequential Change | 2.3% increase (approx) [^][^][^] |
Active CLEAR+ members increased by 2.3% in Q3 2025. This growth represents an increase from 7.227 million active members in Q2 2025 to 7.399 million active members by the end of Q3 2025 [^][^][^][^]. This specific quarter-over-quarter increase is derived from the available reported figures for that period [^][^][^].
Current data is insufficient to establish a typical Q3 growth rate. While the total number of Active CLEAR+ Members reached 8.3 million as of June 30, 2026 [^][^][^], the available information only provides a single instance of quarter-over-quarter growth for Q3 [^][^][^]. Therefore, it is not possible to determine a general or typical Q3 growth trend based on the supplied data.
8. What is the historical correlation between Clear Secure's 'Total Bookings' guidance and its actual net additions of CLEAR+ members?
| Q1 2026 Total Bookings | $291.7 million [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Member Net Additions | 551,000 [^][^] |
| Q3 2026 Member Net Additions | 151,000 [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
A direct historical correlation between bookings guidance and member additions is unestablished. A direct historical correlation between Clear Secure's Total Bookings guidance and actual net additions of CLEAR+ members could not be established from the available evidence, primarily due to the absence of a consistent historical dataset providing both Total Bookings guidance and realized net additions [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This specific data combination is essential for computing a meaningful correlation.
Total Bookings is a leading indicator, not a direct member proxy. Clear Secure defines Total Bookings as total revenue plus the change in deferred revenue, viewing it as a leading indicator of company health, growth, and future revenue, rather than a direct, concurrent proxy for immediate CLEAR+ member net additions [^][^]. Historical data from Q1 2025 to Q2 2026 indicates a non-linear relationship between quarterly Total Bookings and Active CLEAR+ member net additions [^][^]. For example, Q1 2026 recorded $291.7 million in Total Bookings alongside an increase of 551,000 Active CLEAR+ members, whereas Q4 2025 showed $287.1 million in Total Bookings with an increase of 217,000 members [^][^]. Management also acknowledges seasonality in CLEAR+ member net additions, with Q2 and Q4 typically seeing higher additions compared to Q1 and Q3 [^].
Limited data exists for concurrent bookings guidance and member growth. For recent periods, the Q2 2026 earnings transcript is the sole source explicitly detailing both Q3 2026 bookings guidance and CLEAR+ member growth [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This transcript revealed a Q3 2026 Total Bookings guidance range of $311.00 million to $316.00 million and reported 151,000 CLEAR+ net additions for the quarter [^][^][^][^][^][^]. While the Q1 2026 earnings release confirmed 8.167 million active CLEAR+ members in Q1 2026 and provided Q2 2026 Total Bookings guidance of $280 million to $285 million, it did not offer a Q3 2026 net-additions guidance metric [^][^][^][^][^][^].
9. How might Clear Secure's projected negative free cash flow in Q3 2026 impact its spending on marketing and member acquisition?
| One-time settlement amount | $315 million [^] |
|---|---|
| Cash and marketable securities | $959 million as of Q2 2026 [^][^] |
| Active CLEAR+ members | 8.3 million in Q2 2026 [^][^] |
Clear Secure's negative free cash flow stems from a one-time settlement. The anticipated negative free cash flow for Clear Secure in Q3 2026 is primarily attributed to a one-time settlement of an accrued partnership liability, amounting to $315 million [^]. This financial event is not indicative of a decline in the company's operational performance, suggesting that the impact on free cash flow is not a result of underlying business weakness [^].
Clear Secure will maintain investments despite one-time financial impact. Management intends to utilize its significant liquidity, which included $959 million in cash and marketable securities as of Q2 2026, to ensure strategic flexibility [^][^]. This approach allows the company to continue investing in its operating fundamentals, indicating that Clear Secure does not plan to reduce its spending on marketing or member acquisition despite the isolated free cash flow event [^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
CLEAR Secure (YOU) announced Q3 2026 guidance for revenue between $284-287 million, representing 24.6% year-over-year growth, and Total Bookings of $311-316 million, indicating 20.5% year-over-year growth [^] [^] [^] . (YOU)" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^]. A significant catalyst for Q3 2026 is the standard price increase for CLEAR+ membership, which took effect on July 1, 2026, raising the price from $209 to $219 [^]. This adjustment is expected to support both revenue and ARPU growth [^]. As of June 30, 2026, Active CLEAR+ Members reached 8.329 million, marking a 15.2% year-over-year increase [^][^][^].
Further bullish drivers include network expansion, specifically into markets such as Indianapolis and Bentonville, and increased adoption of Concierge services [^] [^] . Operating leverage derived from technology, including eGates and EnVe, is also anticipated to contribute positively [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 05, 2027
- Closes: March 05, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: CLEAR Secure (YOU) announced Q3 2026 guidance for revenue between $284-287 million, representing 24.6% year-over-year growth, and Total Bookings of $311-316 million, indicating 20.5% year-over-year growth [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: A significant catalyst for Q3 2026 is the standard price increase for CLEAR+ membership, which took effect on July 1, 2026, raising the price from $209 to $219 [^] .
- Trigger: This adjustment is expected to support both revenue and ARPU growth [^] .
- Trigger: As of June 30, 2026, Active CLEAR+ Members reached 8.329 million, marking a 15.2% year-over-year increase [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 6 markets in this series
Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 4 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXYOU-26AUGMEM-8500000: NO (Aug 05, 2026)
- KXYOU-26AUGMEM-8300000: YES (Aug 05, 2026)
- KXYOU-26AUGMEM-8800000.0: NO (Aug 05, 2026)
- KXYOU-26AUGMEM-8600000.0: NO (Aug 05, 2026)
- KXYOU-26AUGMEM-8400000.0: NO (Aug 05, 2026)
