Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Clear+ members to be Above 8.4 million in Q3 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market repriced sharply upward on a single event. The probability of CLEAR+ members exceeding 8.4 million in Q3 2026 jumped 62 percentage points on August 07, 2026, moving from 1.0% to 63.0%. This spike was a direct reaction to Clear Secure's Q2 2026 financial results, which were announced on or around August 5. The company reported 8.3 million active CLEAR+ members for the quarter ending June 30, positioning the 8.4 million Q3 target as highly achievable with minimal sequential growth.
The current price of 63.0% indicates that the market now views the outcome as more likely than not. However, with zero contracts traded, this price reflects an initial pricing adjustment rather than a consensus forged by active participants. The lack of volume means market conviction is untested and no technical support or resistance levels have been established. The chart simply shows a binary shift in sentiment based on the new fundamental data from the Q2 earnings report.
  • CLEAR+ members likely grow above 8.4 million, following 8.329 million active members in Q2 2026.
  • Growth above 8.6 million is less probable; Q3 typically has slower sequential additions.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 8.45 million 50.0% 0.9% Market higher by 49.1pp
Above 8.5 million 32.0% 0.8% Market higher by 31.2pp
Above 8.7 million 6.0% 0.2% Market higher by 5.8pp
Above 8.4 million 0.0% 1.0% Model higher by 1.0pp
Above 8.55 million 0.0% 0.7% Model higher by 0.7pp

Current Context

Clear Secure reported strong Q2 2026 membership growth and profitability. The company reported 8.3 million active CLEAR+ members and 43.5 million total CLEAR members as of June 30, 2026, the close of Q2 2026 [1][2][3]. Clear Secure's Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 36.4% in Q2 2026, surpassing its long-term IPO target of 35% for the first time [3][4].
Clear Secure provided Q3 2026 revenue and bookings guidance. For Q3 2026, the company issued guidance forecasting revenue of $284 million to $287 million, with total bookings projected between $311 million and $316 million [1][3][4]. Clear Secure expects negative free cash flow in Q3 2026 due to the settlement of an accrued partnership liability with its card partner [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1CLEAR Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsir.clearme.com
  2. 2Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU) 10-Q Quarterly Report August 2026last10k.com
  3. 3Clear Secure Inc (YOU) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlightsfinance.yahoo.com
  4. 4Clear Secure (YOU) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 07, 2026: 62.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 63.0%

Outcome: Above 8.4 million

What happened: The 62.0 percentage point spike in the "Clear+ members in Q3" market for "Above 8.4 million" on August 07, 2026, was primarily driven by the traditional news announcement of Clear Secure's Q2 2026 financial results. Announced on or around August 5, 2026, the report revealed 8.329 million active CLEAR+ members for Q2 [1][2][3][4]. Although this was slightly below 8.4 million for Q2, the company also reported record Free Cash Flow of $189 million for Q2 2026, a 60% year-over-year increase [4], indicating strong underlying financial health and likely signaling robust growth potential for Q3. This positive outlook, emerging from the earnings call, led market participants to significantly raise their probability for Q3 members exceeding 8.4 million. Social media activity appears to be irrelevant, as no specific posts from influential figures or viral narratives were identified in the provided sources to explain the movement.
Sources (4)
  1. 1CLEAR Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results:: Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU)ir.clearme.com
  2. 2Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU) 10-Q Quarterly Report August 2026last10k.com
  3. 3CLEAR Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsprnewswire.com
  4. 4Clear Secure Inc (YOU) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlightsfinance.yahoo.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market concerns the total number of Clear+ members in Q3. For the "Above 8.4 million" contract, a "Yes" resolution is triggered if the number of Clear+ members in Q3 exceeds 8.4 million; otherwise, a "No" resolution is triggered (meaning the count is 8.4 million or below). The market ends on November 5, 6:00 am EST, with a maximum payout date of March 5, 2027. The provided content does not specify the exact data source for settlement.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 8.45 million $0.50 $0.59 50%
Above 8.5 million $0.30 $0.79 32%
Above 8.7 million $0.07 $0.98 6%
Above 8.4 million $0.72 $0.37 0%
Above 8.55 million $0.20 $0.89 0%
Above 8.6 million $0.10 $0.98 0%
Above 8.65 million $0.08 $0.98 0%

Market Discussion

Clear Secure, Inc. announced 8.329 million active CLEAR+ members as of June 30, 2026, as part of its Q2 2026 financial results [1][2]. This prior quarter's member count was a subject of prediction markets, with platforms offering various thresholds for the Q2 2026 active CLEAR+ member count, such as 8.2 million, 8.3 million, and 8.4 million [3][4][5].

Sources (5)
  1. 1CLEAR Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results:: Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU)ir.clearme.com
  2. 2Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU) 10-Q Quarterly Report August 2026last10k.com
  3. 3Clear+ members in Q2 | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
  4. 4Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.2 million active… — 83% · Kalshi | SimpleFunctionssimplefunctions.dev
  5. 5Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.4 million active clear plus members in Q2 2026? Odds: 40% | Kalshi | Sep 3, 2026simplefunctions.dev

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 51 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score68Caution
Trade quality20% of score0Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score51Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Market integrity95
Structural prior — no screens applyStrong
Info fairness40
High Risk
Trade quality0
Order book is critically thinAvoid
Market integrity
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Trade quality
0Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 4.5c slippage (~10% of a 45.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 38.6c slippage (~85% of a 45.5c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Above 8.45 million–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 4d

No trades in the last 4d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 8.5 million–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 3d

No trades in the last 3d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 21, 2026

6. What potential partnership announcements or airport expansions in Q3 2026 could significantly accelerate CLEAR+'s member growth?

CLEAR+ Airport Availability62 airports (as of Q2 2026) [1][2]
eGates Presence50 airports (as of June 30, 2026) [3][1][2]
New Q2 2026 LocationsNorthwest Arkansas (Bentonville) and Indianapolis [1][2]
CLEAR+ significantly expanded its operational footprint and technological infrastructure. In Q2 2026, new locations at Northwest Arkansas (Bentonville) and Indianapolis brought the total number of airports where CLEAR+ is available to 62 [1][2]. A key strategic initiative throughout 2026 is the network-wide rollout of eGates, with 50 airports currently operational as of June 30, 2026 [3][1][2].
Corporate partnerships and existing momentum drive expected growth. To foster member growth, CLEAR+ utilizes partnerships with corporate travel platforms, such as Perk (formerly TravelPerk), offering preferred rates to corporate clients and integrating enrollment into existing travel workflows [4]. Management anticipates the strong active member growth observed in Q2 2026 will continue into Q3 2026 [3]. However, based on available information, no specific new partnership announcements or airport expansions planned for Q3 2026 have been identified that would significantly accelerate this anticipated growth [3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1CLEAR Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsir.clearme.com
  2. 2CLEAR Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsprnewswire.com
  3. 3CLEAR beats Q2 2026 forecasts, shares jump 15% - Investing.com ZAza.investing.com
  4. 4How Perk and CLEAR Are Rewriting the Business Airport Experiencethetraveler.org

7. How does the value proposition and recent enrollment growth of CLEAR+ compare to its primary competitor, TSA PreCheck?

CLEAR+ Annual Cost$209 per year [1][2][3]
TSA PreCheck Annual Cost (Avg.)$16 per year for five years [1][2][3]
CLEAR+ Active Members (Q2 2026)8.329 million [4][5]
CLEAR+ and TSA PreCheck offer complementary, distinct airport security benefits. CLEAR+ is a private, biometric-based service that enables travelers to bypass the document and ID check line at security [1][2][6][7][3]. In contrast, TSA PreCheck is a government program offering expedited physical screening, which allows travelers to keep on shoes and laptops through security at over 200 airports [1][2][6][7][3]. These services are complementary rather than directly competitive [1][2][3]. CLEAR+ is positioned as a premium option due to its higher annual cost of approximately $209, compared to TSA PreCheck's more cost-effective rate of about $16 per year for a five-year membership [1][2][3]. The premium expense of CLEAR+ is often justified by frequent travel or credit card reimbursements [1][2][3].
CLEAR+ shows consistent membership growth, reaching over 8 million active members. As of June 30, 2026, CLEAR reported 8.329 million active CLEAR+ members [4][5]. This figure demonstrates steady sequential and year-over-year growth from 8.167 million in the first quarter of 2026 and 7.399 million in the third quarter of 2025 [4][5]. The exact number of active CLEAR+ members for the third quarter of 2026 is currently unavailable, as CLEAR had not released its Q3 2026 financial results as of August 8, 2026 [5]. The provided information does not include recent enrollment growth or membership numbers for TSA PreCheck.
Sources (7)
  1. 1TSA PreCheck vs. CLEAR+: What to know - NerdWalletnerdwallet.com
  2. 2CLEAR vs. TSA PreCheck in 2026: Which One Do You Actually Need?withautopilot.com
  3. 3TSA PreCheck vs CLEAR 2026: Complete Guide + $15 Family Dealtraveltourister.com
  4. 4CLEAR Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results:: Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU)ir.clearme.com
  5. 5CLEAR Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsprnewswire.com
  6. 6CLEAR vs. TSA PreCheck®: What Are the Differences?clearme.com
  7. 7CLEAR vs. TSA PreCheck®: What to Know | Chasechase.com

8. Based on Clear Secure's historical performance, what is the typical quarter-over-quarter growth for CLEAR+ members in Q3?

Active CLEAR+ Members (June 30, 2026)8.3 million [1][2][3]
Active CLEAR+ Members (Q3 2025)7.399 million [1][2][3]
Q3 2025 Sequential Change2.3% increase (approx) [1][2][4]
Active CLEAR+ members increased by 2.3% in Q3 2025. This growth represents an increase from 7.227 million active members in Q2 2025 to 7.399 million active members by the end of Q3 2025 [1][2][4][3]. This specific quarter-over-quarter increase is derived from the available reported figures for that period [1][2][4].
Current data is insufficient to establish a typical Q3 growth rate. While the total number of Active CLEAR+ Members reached 8.3 million as of June 30, 2026 [1][2][3], the available information only provides a single instance of quarter-over-quarter growth for Q3 [1][2][4]. Therefore, it is not possible to determine a general or typical Q3 growth trend based on the supplied data.
Sources (4)
  1. 1CLEAR Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsir.clearme.com
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3Clear Secure (NYSE: YOU) lifts Q2 revenue, margins and free cash...stocktitan.net
  4. 4Documentir.clearme.com

9. What is the historical correlation between Clear Secure's 'Total Bookings' guidance and its actual net additions of CLEAR+ members?

Q1 2026 Total Bookings$291.7 million [1][2]
Q1 2026 Member Net Additions551,000 [1][2]
Q3 2026 Member Net Additions151,000 [3][4][5][6][7][8]
A direct historical correlation between bookings guidance and member additions is unestablished. A direct historical correlation between Clear Secure's Total Bookings guidance and actual net additions of CLEAR+ members could not be established from the available evidence, primarily due to the absence of a consistent historical dataset providing both Total Bookings guidance and realized net additions [3][4][5][6][7][8]. This specific data combination is essential for computing a meaningful correlation.
Total Bookings is a leading indicator, not a direct member proxy. Clear Secure defines Total Bookings as total revenue plus the change in deferred revenue, viewing it as a leading indicator of company health, growth, and future revenue, rather than a direct, concurrent proxy for immediate CLEAR+ member net additions [1][2]. Historical data from Q1 2025 to Q2 2026 indicates a non-linear relationship between quarterly Total Bookings and Active CLEAR+ member net additions [1][2]. For example, Q1 2026 recorded $291.7 million in Total Bookings alongside an increase of 551,000 Active CLEAR+ members, whereas Q4 2025 showed $287.1 million in Total Bookings with an increase of 217,000 members [1][2]. Management also acknowledges seasonality in CLEAR+ member net additions, with Q2 and Q4 typically seeing higher additions compared to Q1 and Q3 [9].
Limited data exists for concurrent bookings guidance and member growth. For recent periods, the Q2 2026 earnings transcript is the sole source explicitly detailing both Q3 2026 bookings guidance and CLEAR+ member growth [3][4][5][6][7][8]. This transcript revealed a Q3 2026 Total Bookings guidance range of $311.00 million to $316.00 million and reported 151,000 CLEAR+ net additions for the quarter [3][4][5][6][7][8]. While the Q1 2026 earnings release confirmed 8.167 million active CLEAR+ members in Q1 2026 and provided Q2 2026 Total Bookings guidance of $280 million to $285 million, it did not offer a Q3 2026 net-additions guidance metric [3][4][5][6][7][8].
Sources (9)
  1. 1CLEAR Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsir.clearme.com
  2. 2CLEAR Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsprnewswire.com
  3. 3YOU_Q22026, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  4. 4YOU_Q22026, Page: 2Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  5. 5YOU_Q22026, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  6. 6YOU_Q22026, Page: 2Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  7. 7YOU_Q22026, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  8. 8YOU_Q22026, Page: 2Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  9. 9Clear Secure (YOU) Q1 2025 Earnings Transcript - AOLaol.com

10. How might Clear Secure's projected negative free cash flow in Q3 2026 impact its spending on marketing and member acquisition?

One-time settlement amount$315 million [1]
Cash and marketable securities$959 million as of Q2 2026 [2][3]
Active CLEAR+ members8.3 million in Q2 2026 [3][4]
Clear Secure's negative free cash flow stems from a one-time settlement. The anticipated negative free cash flow for Clear Secure in Q3 2026 is primarily attributed to a one-time settlement of an accrued partnership liability, amounting to $315 million [1]. This financial event is not indicative of a decline in the company's operational performance, suggesting that the impact on free cash flow is not a result of underlying business weakness [1].
Clear Secure will maintain investments despite one-time financial impact. Management intends to utilize its significant liquidity, which included $959 million in cash and marketable securities as of Q2 2026, to ensure strategic flexibility [2][3]. This approach allows the company to continue investing in its operating fundamentals, indicating that Clear Secure does not plan to reduce its spending on marketing or member acquisition despite the isolated free cash flow event [2][3].
Active member growth is projected to continue through Q3 2026. The company observed continued growth in its active CLEAR+ member base, reaching 8.3 million by Q2 2026 [3][4]. This positive trajectory in CLEAR+ member acquisition is expected by Clear Secure to extend into Q3 2026 [3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Q2 2026 Clear Secure Inc Earnings Call Transcript - GuruFocusgurufocus.com
  2. 2Clear Secure, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
  3. 3Clear Secure Inc (YOU) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlightsfinance.yahoo.com
  4. 4CLEAR Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsprnewswire.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

CLEAR Secure (YOU) announced Q3 2026 guidance for revenue between $284-287 million, representing 24.6% year-over-year growth, and Total Bookings of $311-316 million, indicating 20.5% year-over-year growth [1][2][3]. A significant catalyst for Q3 2026 is the standard price increase for CLEAR+ membership, which took effect on July 1, 2026, raising the price from $209 to $219 [3]. This adjustment is expected to support both revenue and ARPU growth [3]. As of June 30, 2026, Active CLEAR+ Members reached 8.329 million, marking a 15.2% year-over-year increase [1][2][3].
Further bullish drivers include network expansion, specifically into markets such as Indianapolis and Bentonville, and increased adoption of Concierge services [3][4]. Operating leverage derived from technology, including eGates and EnVe, is also anticipated to contribute positively [3].
Conversely, potential bearish risks involve a heavy reliance on CLEAR+ subscriptions and a concentrated presence within the U.S. consumer aviation market [3][4]. Slower growth in Active CLEAR+ members relative to Total CLEAR members also presents a risk [3][4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 05, 2027
  • Closes: March 05, 2027
Sources (4)
  1. 1CLEAR Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results:: Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU)ir.clearme.com
  2. 2Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU) 10-Q Quarterly Report August 2026last10k.com
  3. 3Clear Secure (YOU) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  4. 4CLEAR Secure: A Strong Business with Broader Identity Ambitionsmangrovecapitalresearch.substack.com

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 6 markets in this series

Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 4 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXYOU-26AUGMEM-8500000: NO (Aug 05, 2026)
  • KXYOU-26AUGMEM-8300000: YES (Aug 05, 2026)
  • KXYOU-26AUGMEM-8800000.0: NO (Aug 05, 2026)
  • KXYOU-26AUGMEM-8600000.0: NO (Aug 05, 2026)
  • KXYOU-26AUGMEM-8400000.0: NO (Aug 05, 2026)