Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Sea Garena paying users in Q2 2026 to be Above 60 million, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. This consensus is supported by Garena's Q1 2026 paying users of 72.6 million and Free Fire topping global mobile game downloads in June 2026.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price has been completely static since its launch, opening and holding at a 96.0% probability for a "Yes" resolution. With only a single data point recorded, there is no price history, trend, or significant movement to analyze. The chart is a flat line, reflecting a total lack of trading activity.
Zero contract volume indicates the market has seen no participation. As a result, the 96.0% price is not a reflection of trader consensus or conviction, but simply the initial price set for the market. Without trading, no support or resistance levels have been established.
The high opening price suggests a strong initial expectation that Garena's paying users will exceed the contract's threshold. This sentiment is grounded in the company's Q1 2026 results, which reported 72.6 million paying users. That figure is well above the level required for the contract to resolve to "Yes," and the market has priced in a very low probability of a significant decline in users for the second quarter.
  • Since last update (~24h): Model probability for 'Above 72 million' dropped 7.9pp, with the edge flipping, market-led.
  • Headline model probability rose 2.9pp, while the market held flat, widening the edge to 2.8.
  • Model for 'Above 70 million' (-3.5pp) and 'Above 74 million' (-3.7pp) experienced market-led edge flips.
  • Model-led increases for 'Above 64 million' (+5.7pp) and 'Above 66 million' (+5.2pp) compressed edges.
  • Garena paying users likely exceed 60 million, driven by Q1 2026's 72.6 million.
  • Sustaining over 68 million users appears probable, anchored by Q1's 72.6 million.
  • Strong Q2 Free Fire downloads and events make 70 million+ users appear plausible.

Current Context

Sea Limited's Q2 2026 results are pending, expected mid-August. As of July 14, 2026, Sea Limited has not yet released its second quarter 2026 financial results. Market estimates project an earnings announcement around August 11, 2026 [1][2][3].
Garena reported 72.6 million paying users in Q1 2026. For the first quarter of 2026, Garena recorded 72.6 million quarterly paying users, an increase of 12.4% year-on-year. This represented a paying user ratio of 10.9% [1][2][3].
Garena's Q1 2026 bookings and GAAP revenue grew significantly. Other key performance indicators for Garena in Q1 2026 included 666.5 million quarterly active users. Bookings reached US$931.4 million, a 20.1% year-on-year increase. GAAP revenue grew 40.6% year-on-year to US$696.6 million. This performance was primarily driven by Free Fire and record contributions from Arena of Valor [4][2][3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Sea Limited Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
  2. 2Sea Limited Reports First Quarter 2026 Results – Company Announcement - FT.commarkets-data-api-proxy.ft.com
  3. 3Sea Limited Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Nasdaqnasdaq.com
  4. 4Sea Limited FY2026 Q1 Earnings Release - InvestGame.netinvestgame.net

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 July 13, 2026: 13.0pp drop

Price decreased from 24.0% to 11.0%

Outcome: Above 72 million

What happened: The provided web research does not identify a primary driver for the 13.0 percentage point drop in the "Sea Garena paying users in Q2" prediction market on July 13, 2026. No social media activity from key figures or influential narratives regarding Garena's Q2 user performance was found to precede or coincide with this movement [1][2][3][4][5]. Official Q2 2026 financial results, which would detail Garena's paying users, had not been released as of July 14, 2026 [6][7][8]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a primary or contributing driver for this specific prediction market movement.
Sources (8)
  1. 1How Grab Beat Uber: Inside the Rise of Southeast Asia’s Super App w/Grab's CFO Peter Oeyyoutube.com
  2. 2The Rise and Fall of the Roman Empire and the Byzantine Empire | Lex Fridman Podcast #498youtube.com
  3. 3Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading & AOC Might Win It All in 2028youtube.com
  4. 4Trump Heads to NATO Summit; Oil Swings as Hormuz Flows Persist | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
  5. 5One Big Blob of Elon | Money Stuff: The Podcastyoutube.com
  6. 6Sea Limited Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Nasdaqnasdaq.com
  7. 7Free Fire grows 40% and brings Garena to its best results since 2021freefiremania.com.br
  8. 8Garena Melejit! Pendapatan Naik 40,6% di Kuartal I/2026 - AlongWalkerid.alongwalker.co

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if Sea Ltd reports above 70,000,000 Garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026, and NO if this condition is not met. The outcome is verified by Fiscal.ai. The market will close early if the event occurs, or otherwise by September 10, 2026, at 6:00 am EDT, with a projected payout 30 minutes after closing.

Market Discussion

Sea Limited's Garena segment reported 72.6 million quarterly paying users in Q1 2026, representing a 12.4% year-on-year increase and a paying user ratio of 10.9% [1][2][3]. Public discussion regarding this Q1 performance debates whether the user growth and monetization deepening signal a durable comeback for its key titles or a temporary boost from relaunch campaigns, which may impact expectations for Q2 paying users [4].

Sources (4)
  1. 1Sea Limited Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
  2. 2Sea Limited Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Nasdaqnasdaq.com
  3. 3Sea Limited Reports First Quarter 2026 Results – Company Announcement - FT.commarkets-data-api-proxy.ft.com
  4. 4Sea Limited Q1 2026: The Convergence Quarter All Three Engines Fire at Oncelongyield.substack.com

5. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Jul 14, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality1
Poor
Liquidity
1

10 contracts · worst first

Above 62 million1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 64 million1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 66 million1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 68 million1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 70 million1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 72 million1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 74 million1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 60 million—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 69 million—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 69 million—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

Move quality
—

No reading right now

10 contracts · worst first

Above 62 million—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 1.12 log-odds, 2.0c, vol 10

Above 64 million—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 1.14 log-odds, 4.0c, vol 13

Above 60 million—
Only 1 candle closes

Only 1 candle closes

Above 66 million—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.45 log-odds, 4.0c, vol 9

Above 68 million—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.10 log-odds, 1.0c, vol 11

Above 69 million—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Above 70 million—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.32 log-odds, 8.0c, vol 12

Above 72 million—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Above 74 million—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Above 69 million—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

10 contracts · worst first

Above 62 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 64 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 60 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 66 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 68 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 69 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 70 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 72 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 74 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 69 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Jul 14, 2026

6. What is the consensus among financial analysts for Garena's Q2 2026 quarterly paying users, and how have estimates trended since the Q1 report?

Q2 2026 Analyst Estimate60 million [1]
Q1 2026 Reported Paying Users72.6 million [2][3][4]
Q2 2025 Paying Users53 million [1]
Financial analysts anticipate 60 million Garena quarterly paying users for Q2 2026. The current consensus among financial analysts projects 60 million quarterly paying users for Garena in the second quarter of 2026 [1]. This estimate compares to 53 million paying users reported for the same quarter in the previous year, Q2 2025 [1].
Garena reported 72.6 million paying users in Q1 2026. In the first quarter of 2026, Garena recorded 72.6 million quarterly paying users, which represented a 12.4% increase year-over-year [2][3][4]. However, the available research does not explicitly detail how financial analyst estimates for Q2 2026 have trended or changed since the Q1 report was released.
Sources (4)
  1. 1Stay Ahead of the Game With Sea Limited (SE) Q2 Earnings: Wall Street's Insights on Key Metricsfinviz.com
  2. 2Sea Limited Q1 2026 Earnings Review - GabGrowthgabgrowth.com
  3. 3Sea Limited Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
  4. 4EXHIBIT 99.1sec.gov

7. What major updates, eSports events, or marketing campaigns for *Free Fire* were launched in Q2 2026 that could influence user monetization?

OB54 Update LaunchJune 24, 2026 [1][2][3][4]
9th Anniversary EventJune 24 to July 26, 2026 [2][4][5]
Garena Q1 2026 Paying Users72.6 million (+12.4% YoY) [6][7]
Free Fire launched a major update and anniversary event in Q2 2026. On June 24, the OB54 update introduced significant gameplay enhancements, including Weapon Awakening and an improved Skill Boost system [1][2][3][4]. Concurrently, the 9th Anniversary celebrations commenced on June 24 and extended through July 26, 2026 [2][4][5]. This anniversary event featured themed rewards, map transformations like the Factory makeover, and co-op challenges, all strategically designed to boost user engagement, retention, and spending throughout Q2 and into Q3 [2][4][5].
Esports events and strong Q1 monetization supported Q2 activities. During Q2 2026, Free Fire hosted significant eSports tournaments, notably the Free Fire MAX Asia Invitational (FFMAI) Summer 2026, which took place from June 12–21 with a $50,000 prize pool, and the conclusion of the Free Fire World Series (FFWS) Asia Summer 2026 [8][9][10][11]. These events were preceded by strong monetization trends, as reported in Garena's Q1 2026 financial report—the most recent available in July 2026 [6]. The report indicated quarterly paying users had reached 72.6 million, marking a 12.4% year-over-year increase, and a paying user ratio of 10.9% [6][7].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Free Fire OB54 Update: Full Patch Notes, New Features & Meta Changes - GamingNewsLabgamingnewslab.com
  2. 2Free Fire celebrates its 9th anniversary with a new 3D Party Lobby, gameplay systems, events, free rewards, and more - GamingonPhonegamingonphone.com
  3. 3Free Fire OB54 Update Download: Download Link, Release Notes & Moresportsdunia.com
  4. 49 Years of Booyah! Free Fire OB54 and 9th Anniversary Update — Major Highlights | BlueStacksbluestacks.com
  5. 5Free Fire at Esports World Cup 2026 - Liquipedia Free Fire Wikiliquipedia.net
  6. 6Sea Limited Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
  7. 7Sea Limited Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Nasdaqnasdaq.com
  8. 8Free Fire MAX Asia Invitational 2026 Summer - Liquipedia Free Fire Wikiliquipedia.net
  9. 9FFMAI 2026 Summer: Dates, teams, prize pool distribution, and formatsportskeeda.com
  10. 10Bigetron by Vitality Win FFWS Asia Summer 2026 Championship, Team Apex Gaming Finishes in Top 3 - Free Fire Keedafreefirekeeda.in
  11. 11FFMAI 2026 Summer Main Event Groups Announced: Full Group Stage Draw Revealedinsidesport.in

8. How did Garena's paying user ratio and average bookings per user in Q1 2026 compare to mobile gaming peers like Tencent and NetEase?

Garena Quarterly Paying Users72.6 million (Q1 2026) [1][2][3]
Garena Paying User Ratio10.9% (Q1 2026) [1][2][3]
Garena Average Bookings Per User (ARPPU)US$12.80 (Q1 2026) [1][2][3]
Garena reported key user monetization metrics for Q1 2026. In the first quarter of 2026, Garena disclosed 72.6 million quarterly paying users. The company further reported a paying user ratio of 10.9% and an average bookings per user (ARPPU) of US$12.80 for this period [1][2][3]. These figures offer insights into Garena's user monetization performance.
Directly comparing Garena's metrics to competitors is challenging. A direct comparison of Garena's paying user ratio and ARPPU with major mobile gaming competitors like Tencent and NetEase is not feasible due to a lack of publicly available, comparable data. Tencent's financial disclosures do not include specific "paying user ratio" or "ARPPU" metrics for its overall gaming operations, instead concentrating on aggregate revenues from its domestic and international games [4][5]. Similarly, NetEase's quarterly reports omit specific mobile gaming paying user ratios or ARPPU figures. While NetEase provides net revenues from games and related value-added services, the detailed data necessary for a direct comparison of these precise metrics with Garena remains undisclosed [6][7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Sea Limited Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Nasdaqnasdaq.com
  2. 2Sea Limited Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  3. 3Sea Limited FY2026 Q1 Earnings Release - InvestGame.netinvestgame.net
  4. 4PowerPoint 演示文稿static.www.tencent.com
  5. 5Tencent FY2026 Q1 Earnings Release - InvestGame.netinvestgame.net
  6. 6NetEase Announces First Quarter 2026 Unaudited Financial Results | NetEase, Inc.ir.netease.com
  7. 74913-1575-5693_v1_NetEase - 2026Q1 ER Cover (EN)hkexnews.hk
  8. 8NetEase FY2026 Q1 Earnings Release - InvestGame.netinvestgame.net

9. What do third-party app intelligence platforms like Sensor Tower and data.ai indicate about *Free Fire*'s download and revenue trends throughout Q2 2026?

Global Downloads (June 2026)Over 32.39 million (June 2026) [1][2]
Top Performance RegionSoutheast Asia [1][2]
Download Drivers9th Anniversary and mid-June tournaments [1][2]
Free Fire led global mobile game downloads in June 2026. The game achieved over 32.39 million downloads globally, marking a strong finish to the second quarter of 2026 [1][2]. This notable stability in Q2 2026 was further enhanced by significant player engagement across key Southeast Asian markets [1][2].
Anniversary celebrations and tournaments drove Free Fire's strong performance. The substantial increase in downloads during June 2026 was largely attributed to the game's 9th Anniversary celebration and a series of mid-June tournaments conducted in Asia [1][2]. Towards the end of Q2 2026, Free Fire continued its stable performance, bolstered by robust player involvement in countries including Indonesia, Vietnam, and Cambodia [1][2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1Sensor Tower Top 10 Worldwide Mobile Games - June 2026sensortower.com
  2. 2Top 20 Global Mobile Games by Downloads, Revenue, and Growth in June 2026-点点数据diandian.com

10. Based on Sea Limited's performance from 2023 to 2025, what is the typical seasonal trend for Garena's quarterly paying users between Q1 and Q2?

Q1 2025 Garena Paying Users66.4 million [1]
Q2 2025 Garena Paying Users61.8 million [2]
Q1 2024 Garena Paying Usersapproximately 44 million [3]
Garena's quarterly paying users did not show a consistent seasonal trend between Q1 and Q2 from 2023 to 2025. The available data presents differing patterns for these periods, indicating variability rather than a predictable seasonal movement in user numbers.
User figures for 2024 and 2025 reveal opposing Q1 to Q2 shifts. In 2025, Garena experienced a decrease in quarterly paying users, moving from 66.4 million in Q1 to 61.8 million in Q2 [1][2]. Conversely, 2024 exhibited an increase, with approximately 44 million quarterly paying users in Q1 rising to approximately 47 million in Q2 [3].
Missing 2023 data prevents a complete three-year comparison. A Q1 to Q2 comparison for 2023 cannot be established, as specific Q1 2023 data for Garena's paying users is not explicitly available [3]. Therefore, the findings underscore varied trends for Garena's quarterly paying users between the first and second quarters over the 2023-2025 period, rather than a single typical seasonal pattern.
Sources (3)
  1. 1Sea Limited FY2026 Q1 Earnings Release - InvestGame.netinvestgame.net
  2. 2Sea Limited Reports Second Quarter 2025 Resultsbusinesswire.com
  3. 3Sea Limited Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024...sec.gov

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Sea Limited's Q2 2026 earnings are expected in mid-August 2026, with estimates pointing to dates between August 11 and August 17, 2026 [1][2]. The company reported 72.6 million Garena quarterly paying users in Q1 2026, a 12.4% year-on-year increase [3][4][5][6]. Garena's quarterly paying user ratio reached 10.9% in Q1 2026 [3][4][5][6].
Bullish catalysts for Sea Limited in 2026 include continued strength in the Free Fire game, high EBITDA margins of 61.6% in Q1 2026, and growth in the SeaMoney digital financial services segment [4][7]. Bearish risks include reliance on Free Fire's long-term performance and potential market volatility [4][7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 10, 2026
  • Closes: September 10, 2026
Sources (7)
  1. 1Sea Ltd (SE) Earnings Dates, Call Summary & Reportstipranks.com
  2. 2SEA (SE) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
  3. 3Sea Limited Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
  4. 4Sea Limited Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Nasdaqnasdaq.com
  5. 5Sea Limited Q1 2026 Earnings Review - GabGrowthgabgrowth.com
  6. 6Sea Limited Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  7. 7Sea Q1 2026 Earnings Review -finsee.ai