Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for Evolv Technologies to add Above 40 new customers in Q3 2026 (20.0% model vs 0.0% market). This assessment stems from strong Q2 2026 customer additions, raised full-year guidance, and favorable Q3 seasonal trends in the education and live-event sectors.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price action is defined by a single, sharp upward movement. The contract began trading at a 1.0% probability before spiking 90.0 percentage points on August 12, 2026, to 91.0%. It has since settled slightly higher at a current price of 93.0%. The price chart essentially shows a step function from a near-zero probability to a near-certainty, with minimal fluctuation since the initial repricing.
The catalyst for this move was Evolv Technologies' Q2 2026 earnings report, released on August 11. The company announced the addition of 70 new customers in the second quarter, its strongest performance in two years. This positive data on customer acquisition directly informed expectations for the subsequent quarter, causing the market's implied probability for Q3 customer growth to surge.
Critically, the entire price move occurred on zero traded volume. The chart shows no contracts have changed hands. This indicates the price shift is not the result of participant trading activity but likely an automated market maker repricing the contract based on the new fundamental data from the earnings report. While the 93.0% price level suggests high confidence in the outcome, the lack of volume means there is no market conviction or capital behind this probability. The price reflects a theoretical sentiment rather than one tested by active trading.
  • Above 50 new customers appears likely following Q2's 70 customer additions.
  • Favorable Q3 seasonal trends and raised guidance support continued customer growth.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 60 69.0% 18.0% Market higher by 51.0pp
Above 70 38.0% 10.0% Market higher by 28.0pp
Above 40 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp
Above 50 0.0% 19.0% Model higher by 19.0pp
Above 80 0.0% 5.0% Model higher by 5.0pp

Current Context

Evolv Technologies has not yet reported new customer figures for Q3 2026. The third quarter concludes on September 30, 2026, and financial results were not available as of August 13, 2026 [1], [2], [3], [4]. The most recent customer-addition data comes from Q2 2026, when the company announced 70 new customers, its strongest performance in two years [1], [5], [6], [2], [3], [4]. For comparison, Evolv reported 62 new customers in Q3 2025 [1], [2], [3], [4].
Evolv's Q2 2026 results included strong customer additions and raised guidance. The company reported its Q2 2026 financial results on August 11, 2026. In addition to the 70 new customers, Q2 saw approximately 9,200 units deployed, net revenue retention above 100%, and the addition of two new Fortune 500 customers and 23 education customers [6], [2], [3], [4]. Evolv also raised its 2026 full-year revenue guidance to $180 million–$185 million, with ending Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) projected at $148 million–$150 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $15 million–$16 million [6], [7].
Recent corporate announcements include a legal settlement and a new stadium partnership. On August 5, 2026, Evolv announced a global settlement of multiple stockholder derivative lawsuits, which mandates corporate governance reforms but no direct monetary payment from the company [8]. A final settlement hearing for the settlement is scheduled for October 21, 2026 [8]. Also on August 5, Evolv confirmed that its Evolv Express screening technology was selected for the new Ryan Field at Northwestern University [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Evolv Technology Reports Second Quarter Financial Resultsir.evolvtechnology.com
  2. 2seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  3. 3www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  4. 4www.marketbeat.comOctagon Agentmarketbeat.com
  5. 5Evolv Expands Weapons Detection Footprint as Customers Embrace Broader Security Platform | Security Info Watchsecurityinfowatch.com
  6. 6Evolv Technology posts Q2 growth and higher outlookstocktitan.net
  7. 7Evolv expects $180M-$185M 2026 revenue as it targets...seekingalpha.com
  8. 8Evolv Technologies settles derivative suits with reforms | EVLV 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  9. 9New Ryan Field Selects Evolv Express® as Official Fan Screening Provider to Help Create “Best Place to Watch Football in America”investor.wedbush.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 12, 2026: 90.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 91.0%

Outcome: Above 40

What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was Evolv Technologies' Q2 2026 earnings report, released on August 11, 2026 [1][2][3]. The company announced adding 70 new customers in Q2, its strongest performance in two years, which would logically increase confidence in the Q3 outcome "Above 40" new customers for the prediction market [1][2][3][4]. Despite prioritizing social media, no evidence of posts from key figures or viral narratives directly causing the 90 percentage point spike on August 12, 2026, was found in the provided research [4][5][6][7][8][9]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this specific prediction market price movement.
Sources (9)
  1. 1Evolv Expands Weapons Detection Footprint as Customers Embrace Broader Security Platform | Security Info Watchsecurityinfowatch.com
  2. 2Evolv Technology Reports Second Quarter Financial Results:: Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)ir.evolvtechnology.com
  3. 3Evolv Technologies Holdings Q2 2026: Revenue $43.8M, ARR $132.7M, Adjusted EBITDA $4.4M — TradingView Newstradingview.com
  4. 4EVLV_Q22026, Page: 2Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  5. 5EVLV_Q22026, Page: 8Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  6. 6EVLV_Q22026, Page: 1Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  7. 7Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (10-Q) - 2024-Q3, Page: 47Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  8. 8Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (10-Q) - 2024-Q3, Page: 52Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  9. 9Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (10-Q) - 2024-Q3, Page: 27Octagon Agentoctagonai.co

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For this Kalshi prediction market, a "YES" contract resolves if Evolv Technologies acquires more than the specified number of new customers in Q3 (e.g., above 70 for the "Above 70" market). Conversely, a "NO" contract resolves if the new customer count for Q3 is at or below that specified number. Trading for this market ends on November 13, 4:00 PM EST, and no specific special settlement conditions are detailed in the provided content.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 60 $0.69 $0.41 69%
Above 70 $0.47 $0.63 38%
Above 40 $0.99 $0.10 0%
Above 50 $0.90 $0.20 0%
Above 80 $0.22 $0.88 0%

Market Discussion

As of August 13, 2026, Evolv Technology has not yet reported its Q3 2026 financial results [1][2][3]. In Q2 2026, the company added 70 new customers, which was its strongest quarterly performance in two years, bringing its total customer base to approximately 1,800 schools and 800 hospitals [1][2][4]. Following the Q2 results, Evolv raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance, and market sentiment remained generally positive as of August 2026 [2][5][3][4][6].

Sources (6)
  1. 1Evolv Expands Weapons Detection Footprint as Customers Embrace Broader Security Platform | Security Info Watchsecurityinfowatch.com
  2. 2FinancialContent - Evolv Technology Reports Second Quarter Financial Resultsmarkets.financialcontent.com
  3. 3Evolv Technology Q2 Earnings: $43.8M, Outlook Raised | EVLV Stock Newsstocktitan.net
  4. 4Evolv Technologies Holdings reports strong Q2 results as stock falls 1.6%tradersunion.com
  5. 5(EVLV) Evolv Technologies Expects Full Year 2026 Revenue Range $180M - $185M, vs. FactSet Est of $177.2M | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  6. 6Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call...finance.yahoo.com

5. What seasonal trends in the education and live-event sectors could influence sales cycles and new customer signings for Evolv in Q3 2026?

Education Sector InfluenceSeasonal strength during summer months [1]
Q3 Event Calendar ActivityBusy with industry conferences in August and September [1][2]
Key Q3 ConferencesGSX 2026 (September) and IAVM VenueConnect (August) [2]
The education sector significantly impacts Evolv's Q3 sales cycles. This sector consistently demonstrates strength during the summer months, as schools typically undertake facility upgrades and security enhancements in anticipation of the upcoming academic year. This cyclical activity is a key factor in Q3 sales and new customer acquisition, with education being one of several diverse verticals influencing Evolv's sales performance [1][3].
Strategic engagement at industry events drives new customer acquisition. Evolv actively leverages a busy Q3 event calendar, including significant industry conferences held in August and September. Events like IAVM VenueConnect in August and GSX 2026 in September provide crucial platforms for Evolv to showcase its AI-powered security products and engage directly with potential customers. Live entertainment is another vertical influencing Evolv's sales cycles, and these scheduled events in Q3 2026 are expected to contribute positively to new customer signings by facilitating direct customer interaction and product demonstrations across various sectors [2][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Evolv Technologies Holdings (EVLV) FY 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  2. 2Evolv Live Events | Evolv Technologyevolv.com
  3. 3Evolv Technologies Q2 Earnings Call Highlights - The Lincolnian Onlinethelincolnianonline.com

6. Based on Evolv's updated full-year 2026 guidance, what quarterly new customer run-rate is implied for the second half of the year to meet revenue and ARR targets?

Full-year 2026 Revenue Guidance$180–$185 million (August 11, 2026 [1][2][3])
Year-end 2026 ARR Guidance$148–$150 million (August 11, 2026 [1][2][3])
Q2 2026 New Customer Additions70 customers [2][3]
Insufficient information exists to determine Evolv's implied quarterly new customer run-rate. The available research does not specify a clear relationship between revenue, annual recurring revenue (ARR), unit deployments, and new customer additions. This relationship is crucial for calculating or inferring the required quarterly run-rate for the second half of 2026. Evolv Technologies did, however, raise its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $180–$185 million and its year-end ARR guidance to $148–$150 million on August 11, 2026 [1][2][3].
Evolv reported strong Q2 customer growth and anticipates higher second-half deployments of its units. In Q2 2026, the company added 70 new customers, marking its strongest quarter for new customer additions in two years, and concluded the quarter with approximately 9,200 total units deployed [2][3]. Looking ahead, Evolv Technologies expects second-half 2026 unit deployments to surpass first-half deployments, targeting comfortably more than 10,000 units by the end of the year [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Evolv Technology Reports Second Quarter Financial Results:: Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)ir.evolvtechnology.com
  2. 2Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV) (Q2 2026)...finance.yahoo.com
  3. 3Evolv Technologies Q2 Earnings Call Highlights - The Lincolnian Onlinethelincolnianonline.com

7. How did Evolv's Q2 2026 performance of 70 new customers compare to its results in the preceding four quarters (Q2 2025 - Q1 2026)?

New Customers Q2 202670 [1][2][3]
Q2 2026 PerformanceStrongest quarterly new customer additions in two years [1][2][3]
New Customers Q2 202563 [2][4][3]
Evolv Technology significantly increased new customer additions in Q2 2026. The company reported adding 70 new customers during this quarter, a performance that represents its strongest for new customer additions in two years [1][2][3].
Q2 2026 performance surpassed the previous four quarters. The 70 new customer additions in Q2 2026 exceeded the numbers reported in each of the four preceding quarters. These prior quarter figures include 63 new customer additions in Q2 2025, 62 in Q3 2025, 64 in Q4 2025, and 48 in Q1 2026 [2][4][3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Evolv Technology Reports Second Quarter Financial Resultsir.evolvtechnology.com
  2. 2Evolv Technology posts Q2 growth and higher outlook | EVLV 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  3. 3Evolv Technology Reports Second Quarter Financial Results - Storytelling Co - Lifestylelifestyle.storytellingco.com
  4. 4Evolv Technology Reports First Quarter Financial Results:: Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)ir.evolvtechnology.com

8. When is Evolv Technologies expected to release its official Q3 2026 financial results, and what is the historical range of new customers reported in past Q3 announcements?

Q3 2026 Results Expected Releasemid-November 2026 [1]
Q3 2022 New Customer Additions92 [2]
Historical Quarterly Customer Additions Range50 to 100 per quarter [2]
Evolv Technologies expects to release Q3 2026 results in mid-November. The company is anticipated to release its Q3 2026 financial results in mid-November 2026. This timeframe aligns with Evolv Technologies' established practice of announcing third-quarter results during the same period in previous years [1].
Historically, Evolv Technologies reported 50-100 new customers in Q3. The company's historical Q3 announcements consistently provide updates on new customer acquisitions. Evolv Technologies reported 92 new customers in Q3 2022 and approximately 70 in Q3 2023, with significant customer growth noted in Q3 2024 and 2025. Across all quarters, the typical range for new customer additions has generally been between 50 and 100. These figures, while variable, are consistent with past Q3 announcements [2][3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Evolv Technologies (EVLV) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
  2. 2Evolv Technology Reports Record Third Quarter Financial Results:: Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)ir.evolvtechnology.com
  3. 3Evolv Technology Provides Business Update:: Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)ir.evolvtechnology.com
  4. 4Evolv Technology Reports Third Quarter Financial Resultsir.evolvtechnology.com

9. What were the primary allegations in the recently settled stockholder lawsuits, and could any reputational effects influence new customer acquisitions in Q3 2026?

Lawsuit Settlement$15 million (2026) [1][2][3]
New Customer Growth70 new customers (Q2 2026) [4][5]
Full-Year Revenue Guidance$180M–$185M (2026) [4][5]
Evolv Technologies settled a $15 million securities lawsuit over misleading statements. The company settled a securities class action lawsuit in 2026 for $15 million, addressing allegations of false and misleading statements. These allegations pertained to the effectiveness of its flagship 'Evolv Express' product, its financial metrics, use of extra-contractual terms, and compliance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) [1][2][3].
Reputational risks continue, yet Evolv achieved strong Q2 customer growth. Reputational risks, particularly concerning public trust and scrutiny from the FTC, remain a factor for Q3 2026, especially within the K-12 school market, which constitutes approximately half of Evolv's business [6][7]. Despite these ongoing reputational concerns, Evolv reported its strongest new-customer growth in two years during Q2 2026, adding 70 new customers [4]. Following this, the company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $180M–$185M [5]. The provided facts indicate that reputational effects remain a factor for Q3 2026; however, they do not specify how these effects will influence new customer acquisitions beyond noting their continued presence [6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Security Tech Firm Evolv Settles Investor Claims for $15...news.bloomberglaw.com
  2. 2Evolv Technologies $15M Securities Class Action Settlementclaimdepot.com
  3. 3AI Security Co. Investors Seek 1st OK For $15M Settlementlaw360.com
  4. 4Evolv Expands Weapons Detection Footprint as Customers Embrace Broader Security Platform | Security Info Watchsecurityinfowatch.com
  5. 5Evolv Technologies Q2 Earnings Call Highlights - The Lincolnian Onlinethelincolnianonline.com
  6. 6Evolv's $180M-$185M 2026 Bet: 10,000-Unit Rollout or a Trust Trap?ainvest.com
  7. 7Evolv Technologies: Great Access Control, Pending...seekingalpha.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

As of August 13, 2026, Evolv Technologies had not reported its Q3 2026 financial results; its most recent report was for Q2 2026, which noted 70 new customers [1]. For the full year 2026, Evolv Technologies provides revenue guidance of $180 million to $185 million, aiming for over 10,000 total deployed units [2][3].
Key market catalysts include the adoption of new platforms such as Gen2 and eXpedite, expansion into multi-year contracts, and the resolution of trust and regulatory issues, including FTC scrutiny [4][5][6].
Conversely, risks to Evolv Technologies' market position include margin pressure from direct sales, a potential growth slowdown in the education and healthcare sectors, and negative impacts from regulatory scrutiny [4][5][6].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 13, 2027
  • Closes: March 13, 2027
Sources (6)
  1. 1Evolv Technology Reports Second Quarter Financial Resultsir.evolvtechnology.com
  2. 2Evolv expects $180M-$185M 2026 revenue as it targets over 10,000 deployed units (NASDAQ:EVLV) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
  3. 3(EVLV) Evolv Technologies Expects Full Year 2026 Revenue Range $180M - $185M, vs. FactSet Est of $177.2M | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  4. 4EVLV Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions & Price Target 2026public.com
  5. 5Evolv Technologies Holdings (EVLV) Could Be 39% Undervalued As Stadium Deal Adds Traction - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
  6. 6Evolv's $180M-$185M 2026 Bet: 10,000-Unit Rollout or a Trust Trap?ainvest.com