Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for Evolv Technologies' new customers in fiscal 2026 being Above 220 (20.0% model vs 0.0% market), driven by reported H1 2026 additions and projected H2 deployments.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market, which resolves based on whether Evolv Technologies adds more than 220 new customers in fiscal 2026, experienced a dramatic repricing event. The contract traded at a 1.0% probability on August 12, 2026, before spiking 85 percentage points to 86.0% on the same day. It has since traded in a narrow range between 86.0% and 88.0%, with a current price of 87.0%. The chart shows a single, decisive upward move that has established a new, high-probability trading range.
The catalyst for the spike was Evolv's Q2 2026 earnings report. Released on August 12, the report announced the addition of 70 new customers in the second quarter alone. This single-quarter result represents nearly a third of the full-year target of 220, fundamentally altering the market's expectation for the annual outcome. The price jump from near-zero to over 85% reflects a swift reassessment of the probability that the company will reach its full-year customer acquisition goal.
The price action has occurred on zero traded volume. This indicates that the price movement reflects adjustments in the bid-ask spread by market makers or a small number of participants, rather than transactions between buyers and sellers. While the current price level suggests high confidence in the outcome, the lack of volume means this sentiment has not been validated by significant capital flows. The market remains illiquid, and the price represents a theoretical clearing level, not one established by active trading.
  • New customers above 220 expected; H2 deployments will exceed H1's 118.
  • Q2 2026 added 70 new customers, its best performance in two years.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 265 46.0% 20.0% Market higher by 26.0pp
Above 220 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp
Above 235 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp
Above 250 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp
Above 280 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp

Current Context

Evolv Technologies secured 70 new customers in Q2 2026, its strongest new-customer performance in two years [1][2][3]. Prediction markets are tracking whether Evolv Technologies will exceed 220 new customers in fiscal 2026 [4].
Fiscal 2026 guidance projects revenue growth and positive EBITDA. Evolv expects total revenue of $180 million–$185 million for fiscal year 2026, with ending Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $148 million–$150 million, and Adjusted EBITDA of $15 million–$16 million [3][5][6]. As of June 30, 2026, the company complied with all financial covenants, including a minimum ARR requirement of $108.7 million [7]. A federal court granted preliminary approval on August 6, 2026, to a settlement resolving shareholder derivative actions, with a final approval hearing scheduled for October 21, 2026 [8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Evolv Technology Reports Second Quarter Financial Results:: Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)ir.evolvtechnology.com
  2. 2Evolv Expands Weapons Detection Footprint as Customers Embrace Broader Security Platform | Security Info Watchsecurityinfowatch.com
  3. 3Evolv Technology posts Q2 growth and higher outlook | EVLV 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  4. 4Evolv Technologies new customers in fiscal 2026kalshi.com
  5. 5FinancialContent - Evolv Technology Reports Second Quarter Financial Resultsmarkets.financialcontent.com
  6. 6Evolv Technologies Q2 Earnings Call Highlights - Transcript Dailytranscriptdaily.com
  7. 7Evolv Technologies grows revenue and narrows lossstocktitan.net
  8. 8evolv-wins-preliminary-approval-for-derivative-case-settlementtipranks.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 265

📈 August 13, 2026: 18.0pp spike

Price increased from 19.0% to 37.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 18.0 percentage point spike in the "Evolv Technologies new customers in fiscal 2026" market on August 13, 2026, was the company's official Q2 2026 earnings report. Announced on August 11, 2026, the report highlighted Evolv adding 70 new customers in Q2, its strongest new-customer performance in two years, and an increase in full-year 2026 revenue guidance [1][2][3]. This direct financial and operational news, closely preceding the market movement, significantly influenced expectations for fiscal 2026 customer growth [1][2]. Based on the provided research, social media activity was not a primary driver, nor does it appear to have been a contributing accelerant.

Outcome: Above 220

📈 August 12, 2026: 85.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 86.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 85.0 percentage point spike in the "Evolv Technologies new customers in fiscal 2026" prediction market on August 12, 2026, was the company's Q2 earnings report released on that same date [1]. Evolv Technologies announced it added 70 new customers in Q2 2026, marking its strongest quarterly new-customer performance in two years [1][4][5]. This significant customer acquisition performance directly increased the perceived likelihood of the company surpassing 220 new customers for the full fiscal year, causing the prediction market's price to surge. No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives were found to lead or coincide with this specific prediction market movement, indicating social media was irrelevant as a primary driver.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Evolv Technology Reports Second Quarter Financial Results:: Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)ir.evolvtechnology.com
  2. 2https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/evolv-technologies-q2-earnings-call-highlights-2026-08-11/Octagon Agentmarketbeat.com
  3. 3seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  4. 4Evolv Expands Weapons Detection Footprint as Customers Embrace Broader Security Platform | Security Info Watchsecurityinfowatch.com
  5. 5Evolv Technologies (NASDAQ:EVLV) Posts Quarterly Earnings Results, Misses Expectations By $0.02 EPS - Markets Dailythemarketsdaily.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For each contract within this market, a YES resolution occurs if Evolv Technologies' new customers in fiscal 2026 are above the specified numerical threshold for that contract. A NO resolution occurs if the new customer count is at or below that threshold. Trading for the market concludes on February 26 at 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of May 27, 2027. No special settlement conditions beyond the numerical threshold are specified.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 265 $0.46 $0.64 46%
Above 220 $0.95 $0.15 0%
Above 235 $0.83 $0.27 0%
Above 250 $0.66 $0.44 0%
Above 280 $0.28 $0.82 0%

Market Discussion

The prediction market is tracking whether Evolv Technologies will exceed 220 new customers in fiscal 2026 [1]. Evolv Technologies added 70 new customers in Q2 2026, which was its strongest new-customer performance in two years [2][3][4][5]. Following the Q2 2026 earnings release on August 11, 2026, financial commentary highlighted the company's raised fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance to $180 million–$185 million and strong customer momentum, despite a reported $0.02 earnings per share miss [5][6][7].

Sources (7)
  1. 1Evolv Technologies new customers in fiscal 2026kalshi.com
  2. 2Evolv Technology Reports Second Quarter Financial Results:: Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)ir.evolvtechnology.com
  3. 3Evolv Expands Weapons Detection Footprint as Customers Embrace Broader Security Platform | Security Info Watchsecurityinfowatch.com
  4. 4Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV) (Q2 2026)...finance.yahoo.com
  5. 5https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/evolv-technologies-q2-earnings-call-highlights-2026-08-11/marketbeat.com
  6. 6Evolv Technologies (NASDAQ:EVLV) Posts Quarterly Earnings Results, Misses Expectations By $0.02 EPS - Markets Dailythemarketsdaily.com
  7. 7(EVLV) Evolv Technologies Expects Full Year 2026 Revenue Range $180M - $185M, vs. FactSet Est of $177.2M | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com

5. What are the current fiscal 2026 new customer estimates for Evolv from key equity research analysts, and how have they been revised since the Q2 earnings report?

Analyst Consensus for 2026 New CustomersNot explicitly detailed [1]
New Customers Added in Q2 202670 [2]
Evolv's 2026 Revenue Guidance$180M-$185M [1]
Equity research analysts do not explicitly detail Evolv's fiscal 2026 new customer estimates. Instead, analysts primarily focus on other key financial metrics for Evolv Technologies, such as revenue, annual recurring revenue (ARR), and EBITDA [1].
Evolv reported a strong Q2, adding 70 new customers during the quarter. This represented Evolv Technologies' strongest quarterly addition of new customers in two years [2]. Following its Q2 earnings report, Evolv itself subsequently raised its 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $180 million-$185 million and increased its unit deployment outlook to over 10,000 units [1].
A prediction market tracks Evolv Technologies' fiscal 2026 new customer numbers independently. Specifically, this market sets an "Above 220" threshold for a "Yes" resolution on Evolv's new customers in fiscal 2026 [3]. However, this prediction market activity operates separately from formal equity research analyst consensus estimates [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1(EVLV) Evolv Technologies Expects Full Year 2026 Revenue Range $180M - $185M, vs. FactSet Est of $177.2M | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  2. 2Evolv Technology posts Q2 growth and higher outlook | EVLV 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  3. 3Evolv Technologies new customers in fiscal 2026kalshi.com

6. Based on Evolv's official FY2026 guidance, what is the relationship between its new customer count and its goal of $148M-$150M in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR)?

FY2026 Ending ARR Guidance$148M-$150M (as of August 11, 2026) [1][2][3]
Purchase-Subscription Mix60% [1][3]
New Customers Added (Q2 2026)70 [1][3]
Evolv Technologies projects its fiscal year 2026 Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) to be between $148 million and $150 million, as of August 11, 2026 [1][2][3]. This revenue growth is fueled by new customer acquisitions, expanded deployments within existing customer bases, and strategic changes to its unit deployment model, notably a shift towards a 60% mix of purchase-subscription models [1][3]. These elements collectively drive the company's financial performance.
Evolv does not provide specific new customer count targets. While new customer acquisitions significantly contribute to Evolv’s overall ARR objectives, the company has not issued specific numerical guidance or a target for its 'new customer count' directly linked to its $148 million-$150 million FY2026 ARR goal [1][3]. Nevertheless, Evolv did report adding 70 new customers in the second quarter of 2026, which represented its strongest quarter for new customer acquisition in two years [1][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Evolv Technology Reports Second Quarter Financial Results:: Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)ir.evolvtechnology.com
  2. 2Evolv Technologies Q2 Earnings Call Highlights - Transcript Dailytranscriptdaily.com
  3. 3Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV) (Q2 2026)...finance.yahoo.com

7. How does Evolv's new customer acquisition rate and target market in H1 2026 compare to that of key competitor Xtract One Technologies?

Evolv New Customers H1 2026118 [1][2][3][4]
Evolv New Customers Q2 202670 [1][2][3][4]
Xtract One System Deliveries Q2 202616 to customers [5][6]
Evolv reported strong customer growth while Xtract One's H1 2026 data is limited. In the first half of 2026, Evolv Technologies acquired 118 new customers, with 70 of these additions occurring in Q2 2026. This performance represented Evolv's strongest quarterly customer acquisition in two years [1][2][3][4]. Conversely, Xtract One Technologies delivered systems to 16 customers during its fiscal quarter ending June 2026 [5][6]. The available information does not specify Xtract One's total new customer acquisition rate for the full first half of 2026.
Both companies target similar key markets, indicating direct competition. Evolv's market segments encompass education, healthcare, live entertainment, sports, and Fortune 500 enterprises [3][4][7][8]. Xtract One Technologies focuses on entertainment and healthcare, with an increasing emphasis on office buildings and schools [3][4][7][8]. The system deliveries by Xtract One in the quarter ending June 2026 specifically highlighted healthcare, entertainment, schools, and office buildings [5][6]. This demonstrates a clear competitive landscape across sectors like healthcare, entertainment, and schools [3][4][5][6][7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Evolv Technology Reports Second Quarter Financial Results:: Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)ir.evolvtechnology.com
  2. 2Evolv Technology posts Q2 growth and higher outlookstocktitan.net
  3. 3Evolv Expands Weapons Detection Footprint as Customers Embrace Broader Security Platform | Security Info Watchsecurityinfowatch.com
  4. 4https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/evolv-technologies-q2-earnings-call-highlights-2026-08-11/marketbeat.com
  5. 5https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/xtract-one-technologies-q3-earnings-call-highlights-2026-06-11/marketbeat.com
  6. 6https://longbridge.com/en/news/289484926longbridge.com
  7. 7Management's Discussion and Analysisinvestors.xtractone.com
  8. 8Management Discussion & Analysisinvestors.xtractone.com

8. What is the historical quarterly breakdown of Evolv's new customer additions since fiscal 2024, and what does this data suggest for H2 2026 projections?

New Customer Additions H1 2026124 [1][2]
FY 2026 Revenue Guidance$180M-$185M [3][4]
FY 2026 Projected Units DeployedSignificantly more than 10,000 [3][4]
Evolv reported robust new customer additions in recent quarters. In the first half of 2026, Evolv Technology added a total of 124 new customers, comprising 54 in Q1 2026 and 70 in Q2 2026 [1][2]. The Q2 2026 performance was particularly notable as it marked the company's strongest quarterly period in two years [5][1][2]. Looking back at fiscal year 2025, Evolv also recorded approximately 60 new customer additions in Q4 2024 [6][7].
Evolv anticipates strong performance for the second half of 2026. The company projects that deployments in the second half of 2026 will surpass those of the first half, a forecast supported by a healthy pipeline and consistent demand across key verticals such as education and healthcare [3][4]. Reflecting this positive outlook, Evolv has raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $180 million to $185 million, and expects to conclude 2026 with significantly more than 10,000 units deployed [3][4].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Evolv Technology Reports First Quarter Financial Results:: Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)ir.evolvtechnology.com
  2. 2Evolv Technology Reports Second Quarter Financial Results - Storytelling Co - Lifestylelifestyle.storytellingco.com
  3. 3https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/evolv-technologies-q2-earnings-call-highlights-2026-08-11/marketbeat.com
  4. 4Evolv Technologies Q2 Earnings Call Highlights - Transcript Dailytranscriptdaily.com
  5. 5Evolv Expands Weapons Detection Footprint as Customers Embrace Broader Security Platform | Security Info Watchsecurityinfowatch.com
  6. 6Evolv Technology Reports Fourth Quarter Financial Resultsevolv.com
  7. 7January 23, 2025 - EX-99.1 - 8-K: Current report filing | Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)ir.evolvtechnology.com

9. What are the key drivers behind Evolv's strong Q2 2026 new customer growth, and what evidence suggests these trends are sustainable through Q4 2026?

New Customers Q2 202670 [1][2][3]
2026 Revenue Guidance$180–$185 million [1][2][3]
Expected Deployed Units (End of 2026)Exceed 10,000 [3]
Evolv Technology achieved robust new customer growth in Q2 2026. The company added 70 new customers, marking its best performance in two years. This significant increase in customer acquisition was primarily fueled by widespread adoption across various sectors, particularly education, which contributed 23 new customers, and healthcare, with 8 new customers. Demand also remained strong from live entertainment, sports, and enterprise environments [1][2][3].
Evolv's growth trends are expected to persist through Q4 2026. This is supported by ongoing renewals and expansions, as approximately 60% of the unit bookings in Q2 originated from existing customers, indicating strong customer retention and expansion. Additionally, the Evolv eXpedite bag-screening solution has expanded its reach to over 100 users. These favorable trends led management to increase its 2026 revenue guidance to $180–$185 million [1][2][3].
Future adoption and unit deployment are projected to continue growing. Evolv reported approximately 9,200 deployed units at the end of Q2 2026 and anticipates this figure will exceed 10,000 units by the close of 2026, representing approximately 30% year-over-year growth. Future adoption is also expected to benefit from federal grant programs, school safety funding, and state-level legislative initiatives [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Evolv Technology Reports Second Quarter Financial Resultsir.evolvtechnology.com
  2. 2Evolv Expands Weapons Detection Footprint as Customers...securityinfowatch.com
  3. 3https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/evolv-technologies-q2-earnings-call-highlights-2026-08-11/marketbeat.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Evolv Technologies added 70 new customers in Q2 2026 and 48 in Q1 2026, totaling 118 new customers for the first half of fiscal 2026 [1]. As of August 2026, Evolv expects 2026 total revenue of $180 million to $185 million, year-end ARR of $148 million to $150 million, and full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $15 million to $16 million [1][2][3]. The company targets exceeding 10,000 total units deployed by the end of 2026, representing ~30% year-over-year unit growth, with 60% of new 2026 deployments expected via purchase-subscription models [2][3].
Bullish catalysts include strong demand for Evolv eXpedite, growing recurring revenue, and consistent unit deployment [4]. Bearish risks include ongoing GAAP unprofitability, valuation sensitivity, and regulatory/credibility concerns regarding AI weapon detection claims [4][5].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 27, 2027
  • Closes: May 27, 2027
Sources (5)
  1. 1Evolv Technology Reports Second Quarter Financial Results:: Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)ir.evolvtechnology.com
  2. 2https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/evolv-technologies-q2-earnings-call-highlights-2026-08-11/marketbeat.com
  3. 3Evolv Technology Q2 Earnings: $43.8M, Outlook Raised | EVLV Stock Newsstocktitan.net
  4. 4Evolv Technologies (EVLV): AI Security Growth Meets Valuation Risk | TickerSparktickerspark.ai
  5. 5Evolv's $180M-$185M 2026 Bet: 10,000-Unit Rollout or a Trust Trap?ainvest.com