ServiceTitan gross transaction volume in Q2
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect ServiceTitan's Q2 gross transaction volume to be Above $26.5 billion, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Market probabilities for ServiceTitan GTV above $26.5 billion are currently 0%.
- ServiceTitan Q2 GTV historically grows from Q1, further boosted by an extra business day.
- Q1 2027 GTV reached $21.7 billion, with 30-50% year-over-year growth sustained.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $26.5 billion | 0.0% | 0.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $27 billion | 0.0% | 0.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $27.5 billion | 0.0% | 0.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $28 billion | 0.0% | 0.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $28.5 billion | 0.0% | 0.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
Current Context
ServiceTitan will report fiscal second quarter 2027 results on September 8, 2026 [^] [^] . 8 Fiscal Q2 Earnings Date | TTAN Stock News" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^]. The reporting period concludes on July 31, 2026. For the fiscal first quarter of 2027, ServiceTitan recorded a Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) of $21.7 billion, a 23% year-over-year increase [^][^][^][^].
ServiceTitan provided Q2 2027 revenue guidance and operational notes. The company projects total revenue for fiscal second quarter 2027 to be in the range of $284 million to $286 million [^][^]. ServiceTitan also indicated a non-GAAP tax rate of 18% for fiscal years 2027 through 2030 [^][^]. The fiscal second quarter 2027 is expected to benefit from one additional business day compared to the prior year due to seasonality [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market is effectively untraded, with zero contract volume since inception. The price has moved from an initial 1.0% to a current 4.0% probability, but this reflects theoretical price adjustments rather than transactional activity. A peak of 49.0% is noted in the historical range, though this appears to be an anomalous, non-traded level. The absence of any trading volume indicates a complete lack of participation and conviction from market participants.
With no executed trades, it is impossible to attribute price changes to specific news, such as the reported Q1 GTV of $21.7 billion or the announcement of the Q2 earnings date. Technically significant support and resistance levels have not been established. The current 4.0% price implies low market confidence in ServiceTitan's Q2 gross transaction volume reaching the contract's target. However, this sentiment is purely notional, as it has not been validated by any capital allocation.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 13, 2026: 14.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 15.0%
Outcome: Above $27.5 billion
What happened: Web research did not identify any social media activity or traditional news announcements causing a 14.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for ServiceTitan's Q2 2026 gross transaction volume (GTV) to be above $27.5 billion [^]. ServiceTitan's reported GTV for the fiscal second quarter of 2026 was $22.9 billion, falling below the $27.5 billion threshold [^]. Therefore, social media was not a primary driver, nor were other factors, as no evidence was found to support the occurrence or cause of the described price movement [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the "Above $27.5 billion" contract, a YES resolution is triggered if ServiceTitan's gross transaction volume in Q2 exceeds $27.5 billion. A NO resolution occurs if the gross transaction volume is $27.5 billion or less. Trading for this market ends on September 8 at 4:00 PM EDT, with a maximum payout date of January 5, 2027. No specific special settlement conditions are detailed in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $26.5 billion | $0.98 | $0.96 | 0% |
| Above $27 billion | $0.98 | $0.96 | 0% |
| Above $27.5 billion | $0.97 | $0.85 | 0% |
| Above $28 billion | $0.96 | $0.97 | 0% |
| Above $28.5 billion | $0.96 | $0.98 | 0% |
Market Discussion
ServiceTitan announced its fiscal second quarter (Q2) 2026 Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) at $22.9 billion, representing a 19% year-over-year increase [^][^][^]. This growth was reportedly driven by strong performance in commercial and non-HVAC residential sectors, even as residential HVAC growth moderated [^][^]. Market commentary highlighted an increasing investor focus throughout 2026 on the company's ability to maintain durable growth and achieve GAAP profitability amidst broader vertical B2B software valuation compression [^][^].
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Above $26.5 billionPrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Above $27 billionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Above $27.5 billionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Above $28 billionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Above $28.5 billionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 13, 2026
6. Based on ServiceTitan's Q2 2027 revenue guidance of $284-$286 million, what is the implied range for Gross Transaction Volume?
| Q2 2027 Revenue Guidance | $284-$286 million [^] |
|---|---|
| GTV Guidance for Q2 2027 | Not provided [^] |
| Q2 2027 GTV/Usage Revenue Factor | Benefit from one additional business day compared to prior year [^] |
ServiceTitan did not provide specific Gross Transaction Volume guidance for Q2 2027. The company’s Q1 2027 earnings report and related disclosures did not include specific numerical guidance for Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) for the upcoming fiscal Q2 2027 [^][^][^]. While ServiceTitan did issue revenue guidance for Q2 2027 in the range of $284 million to $286 million, there is no implied GTV range that can be calculated directly from this revenue information based on the available facts [^][^][^].
Management discussed GTV factors but withheld specific calculation metrics. Although management noted that both GTV and usage revenue for Q2 2027 are expected to benefit from one additional business day compared to the previous year, they did not quantify an implied GTV range [^][^]. Furthermore, the company did not provide essential metrics, such as a specific take rate, which would be necessary to derive an implied Gross Transaction Volume range from the provided revenue guidance [^][^].
7. What macroeconomic factors, such as contractor spending and housing market trends, are most likely to influence ServiceTitan's GTV in Q2 2027?
| Key Macro Factors Q2 2027 | Contractor demand tied to housing-market activity, renovation/remodeling spend, and broader construction/service spending [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Primary GTV Drivers | Total dollars invoiced by customers on the platform, contractor activity levels, average job ticket sizes, and overall industry demand [^][^] |
| Q2 2027 GTV Outlook Direction | Benefits if housing turnover and contractor order volumes stay healthy; slows if housing activity softens or contractors cut discretionary spend [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
ServiceTitan's Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) in Q2 2027 is primarily influenced by contractor demand. This metric, driven by the total dollars invoiced by ServiceTitan's customers, is highly sensitive to contractor activity levels, average job ticket sizes, and overall industry demand [^][^]. Contractor demand itself is closely tied to housing market activity, renovation and remodeling expenditures, and broader construction and service spending [^][^][^][^][^][^]. An increase in home sales, remodeling projects, and maintenance activities typically correlates with higher contractor work volumes, directly benefiting ServiceTitan's GTV [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Macroeconomic factors present both tailwinds and headwinds for the home services market. Despite broader economic caution and high interest rates, the home services market is experiencing a "mortgage rate lock-in" effect, which encourages homeowners to invest in renovations and repairs of their current homes, creating a crucial tailwind [^][^][^][^]. However, ongoing macroeconomic headwinds like elevated inflation, increased input costs, and consumer caution have led to project delays and cancellations, a trend that is expected to continue influencing the market into 2027 [^][^][^][^].
Commercial activity and broader market trends will shape ServiceTitan's Q2 2027 GTV. Additionally, commercial activity, local economic strength, and seasonal weather patterns can also affect service calls, installations, and maintenance work [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. The commercial trades segment has been identified as a strategic area for future GTV growth [^][^]. ServiceTitan did not provide a specific Q2 2027 GTV outlook; however, an evidence-based view suggests that GTV will likely benefit if housing turnover and contractor order volumes remain healthy, but would slow if housing activity softens or contractors reduce discretionary spending [^][^][^][^][^][^].
8. How does ServiceTitan's historical GTV growth compare to other vertical SaaS peers with integrated payments, like Toast or Block?
| ServiceTitan GTV Growth | 16-26% year-over-year [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| ServiceTitan GTV Q1 FY27 | $21.7 billion [^][^][^][^] |
| ServiceTitan Blended Take Rate | 1.1–1.2% [^][^][^][^][^] |
ServiceTitan's Gross Transaction Volume has demonstrated consistent growth trends. The company has sustained year-over-year GTV growth rates between 16% and 26% in recent quarters [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Notably, ServiceTitan's GTV reached $19.8 billion in Q4 FY26, subsequently increasing to $21.7 billion in Q1 FY27 [^][^][^][^].
ServiceTitan employs a vertical SaaS and integrated payments strategy. This approach draws parallels to other vertical SaaS companies like Toast, where the company owns the system of record and monetizes through integrated payments [^][^][^][^][^]. ServiceTitan's blended take rate is approximately 1.1–1.2%, which is lower than Toast's reported rate of over 2%, indicating significant potential for expansion through increased payments attach [^][^][^][^][^]. In the quarter ending mid-2026, ServiceTitan's fintech/usage revenue grew 29% year-over-year, surpassing its subscription revenue growth of 24% and aligning with successful monetization strategies observed in other peers [^][^]. However, a direct comparative analysis of historical GTV growth rates for competitors such as Toast or Block cannot be performed due to the absence of specific data in the provided research [^][^][^][^][^].
9. What does historical data reveal about ServiceTitan's GTV seasonality, particularly the growth pattern from Q1 to Q2?
| Q1 FY2026 GTV | $17.7 billion [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q2 FY2026 GTV | $22.9 billion [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Q2 FY2027 GTV Benefit | One additional business day [^][^][^] |
ServiceTitan demonstrates strong seasonal GTV and revenue growth in Q2. ServiceTitan historically exhibits a strong seasonal pattern where Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) and revenue grow significantly from Q1 to Q2 of its fiscal year [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. This growth is primarily driven by heightened demand for its customers' trades services, such as HVAC, pool maintenance, and landscaping, during the hot summer months [^][^]. This Q2 seasonality directly impacts usage-based revenue, which is tied to GTV processed through the platform, and consequently improves platform gross and operating margins during this period [^].
GTV sharply increased from Q1 to Q2 FY2026 based on the latest available public financials. ServiceTitan’s GTV rose sharply from $17.7 billion in Q1 FY2026 to $22.9 billion in Q2 FY2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This represents an increase of $5.20 billion, or 29.38% quarter over quarter, indicating a strong seasonal lift from Q1 to Q2. The observed Q1 to Q2 jump suggests ServiceTitan’s GTV tends to accelerate into Q2, making Q2 materially stronger than Q1 in the available history [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Q2 FY2027 GTV forecast considers additional business days and weather. For the specific target quarter, Q2 FY2027, no actual GTV figure is available in the provided evidence because it is a future period [^][^][^][^][^][^]. However, ServiceTitan management explicitly noted that GTV and usage revenue for FY2027 are expected to benefit from one additional business day in Q2 compared to the prior year [^][^][^]. Management's expectation for Q2 GTV performance depends significantly on weather patterns; a hot summer is expected to yield a normal seasonal pattern, while a mild summer could potentially pull activity forward into Q1, masking the typical Q2 growth [^][^].
10. What are Wall Street's consensus estimates for ServiceTitan's Q2 2027 Gross Transaction Volume?
| Q1 2027 Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) | $21.7 billion (ended April 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2027 GTV Guidance | Not provided by ServiceTitan [^][^][^] |
| Q2 2027 Wall Street Consensus GTV | No publicized estimate [^][^][^] |
ServiceTitan reported $21.7 billion in Gross Transaction Volume for Q1 2027. The company's Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) reached $21.7 billion for its fiscal first quarter of 2027, a period that concluded in April 2026 [^][^][^]. ServiceTitan has indicated that its GTV and associated usage revenue are typically influenced by business day seasonality [^][^].
No official or consensus estimates exist for ServiceTitan's Q2 2027 GTV. For the upcoming fiscal second quarter of 2027, ServiceTitan has not issued official quarterly GTV guidance, and consequently, there is no publicized Wall Street consensus estimate available for this period [^][^][^]. Management did note that Q2 2027 includes one additional business day compared to the prior year period, a factor that could impact GTV and usage revenue [^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
ServiceTitan's estimated earnings release date for Q2 fiscal year 2027 is September 10, 2026 [^] . Fiscal Q2 2027 is expected to benefit from one additional business day compared to the prior-year period, which will impact Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) and usage revenue [^].
Bullish catalysts include the adoption of ServiceTitan's AI-driven "MAX" platform, targeting a doubling of per-customer subscription revenue, and the expansion of high-margin FinTech products [^] . Bearish risks involve potential challenges in maintaining margin discipline while scaling MAX, as well as broader economic sensitivities affecting trade-industry demand [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 06, 2027
- Closes: January 06, 2027
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: ServiceTitan's estimated earnings release date for Q2 fiscal year 2027 is September 10, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Fiscal Q2 2027 is expected to benefit from one additional business day compared to the prior-year period, which will impact Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) and usage revenue [^] .
- Trigger: Bullish catalysts include the adoption of ServiceTitan's AI-driven "MAX" platform, targeting a doubling of per-customer subscription revenue, and the expansion of high-margin FinTech products [^] .
- Trigger: Bearish risks involve potential challenges in maintaining margin discipline while scaling MAX, as well as broader economic sensitivities affecting trade-industry demand [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
