Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market (85.0% vs 51.0%) for Futu's Q2 2026 total funded accounts to be above 3.7 million. While regulatory restrictions on mainland Chinese accounts effective June 12, 2026, pose a significant headwind to growth, the model assesses that additions are unlikely to fall below this threshold given the Q1 2026 starting point.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has exhibited no price movement since its inception. The probability has remained static at 51.0%, establishing a completely flat, sideways trend. There have been no price spikes or drops to analyze, as the market has not reacted to any external information or news flow. The price point of 51.0% serves as the only data point, with no established support or resistance levels.
The most notable feature of this market is the total trading volume of zero contracts. This complete lack of activity indicates that the current 51.0% price is merely an initial quote and does not reflect any market consensus or conviction. No capital has been committed to either side of the proposition.
Given the zero volume, the chart provides no insight into active market sentiment regarding Futu's Q2 2026 funded accounts. The market is pricing a marginal probability that the company will exceed the 3,700,000 threshold, based on the last reported figure of 3,590,325 for Q1 2026. However, this price is untested and should not be interpreted as a reflection of collective market expectation. The market is entirely illiquid.
  • Since last update (~10h): Model-led probability for "Above 3.8 million" dropped 20.2pp to 45.0%, widening its edge.
  • For "Above 3.7 million", the model's probability decreased 7.0pp, compressing its edge to 34.0pp.
  • The model also lowered probabilities for most other higher outcomes, further widening existing edges.
  • Futu likely surpasses 3.75 million funded accounts, building from 3.59 million in Q1 2026.
  • Regulatory restrictions on mainland accounts from June 12 challenge exceeding 3.8 million.
  • Surpassing 3.9 million accounts is highly improbable given significant regulatory pressures.

Current Context

Futu's Q2 2026 funded account figures are not yet public. As of March 31, 2026, the end of Q1, Futu Holdings Limited reported 3,590,325 total funded accounts [1][2][3]. The company has not yet released its Q2 2026 financial results as of August 4, 2026 [1][2][4]. Futu historically reports quarterly metrics on a lagging schedule, with Q1 results typically announced in late May [1][2][4].
Futu faces an ongoing securities class action lawsuit. Investors filed the suit regarding disclosures on regulatory compliance in mainland China, specifically referencing a proposed RMB 1.85 billion penalty from the CSRC [5][6][7]. The lead plaintiff deadline for this class action is August 25, 2026 [5][6][7][8].
Hong Kong regulators approved Futu's expanded digital asset services. In June 2026, Futu secured approval from the SFC in Hong Kong to expand its Type 1 licensed activities [9]. This approval permits eligible clients to use securities-backed financing for digital asset trading [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754581/000110465926067159/tm2615605d1_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
  2. 2Futu Announces Q1 2026 Results: Robust Global Growth Sustained, With Revenues Up 25% YoYfutuhk.com
  3. 3Moomoo's Parent Company Futu Releases Q1 2026 Resultsprnewswire.com
  4. 4Futu Announces First Quarter 2026 Unaudited Financial Resultsca.finance.yahoo.com
  5. 5Futu Holdings (FUTU) Is Up 5.1% After Class Action Highlights Alleged CSRC Licensing Lapses - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
  6. 6Portnoy Law Firm Announces Class Action on Behalf of Futuglobenewswire.com
  7. 7Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman LLC Urges Futu Holdingsglobenewswire.com
  8. 8SueWallSt Reminds Shareholders of a Lead Plaintiff...globenewswire.com
  9. 9Futu not under investigation as Hong Kong SFC freezes HK$125M client assetsdigitalcryptohub.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if Futu's total funded accounts for Q2 2026 are above 3.8 million. Conversely, it resolves NO if the total funded accounts are 3.8 million or less. The market closes on August 19, 4:00 AM EDT, with the relevant data for Q2 2026 expected to be announced during Futu's Q2 2026 Earnings Call on August 20, 12:30 PM ET.

Market Discussion

Futu Holdings reported 3.59 million total funded accounts as of March 31, 2026, with Q2 2026 results not yet released [1][2][3]. Management announced expectations for Q2 net new funded accounts to remain stable relative to the 225,000 added in Q1 [4][5]. While analysts maintain a strong consensus buy rating, social media and crowd sentiment is mixed, with recent retail commentary reflecting a bearish outlook partly driven by regulatory concerns and downward revisions in earnings estimates [6][7].

Sources (7)
  1. 1https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754581/000110465926067159/tm2615605d1_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
  2. 2Futu Announces Q1 2026 Results: Robust Global Growth Sustained, With Revenues Up 25% YoYfutuhk.com
  3. 3Moomoo's Parent Company Futu Releases Q1 2026 Resultsprnewswire.com
  4. 4Futu's Account Push: Can It Reach 800,000 New Funded Clients? — TradingView Newstradingview.com
  5. 5Futu's Account Push: Can It Reach 800,000 New Funded Clients?sharewise.com
  6. 6Futu Holdings (FUTU) Reddit Mentions & Stock Sentimentadanos.org
  7. 7https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/fututipranks.com

4. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Aug 4, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 4, 2026

5. Based on historical data from 2023-2025, what is Futu's typical quarter-over-quarter growth trend for funded accounts from Q1 to Q2?

Q1-Q2 2025 Funded Account GrowthApproximately 7.6% (from 2.67 million to 2.88 million) [1][2]
Funded Accounts Q1 20263.59 million [3][4]
Projected Funded Accounts Q2 2026Approximately 3.815 million [3][4]
Futu's funded accounts showed strong Q1 to Q2 growth in 2025. In 2025, the company's funded accounts increased by approximately 7.6% quarter-over-quarter, growing from 2.67 million in Q1 to 2.88 million in Q2 [1][2]. The available information does not provide specific quarter-over-quarter growth trends for 2023 or 2024.
Futu anticipates stable Q2 funded account additions in 2026. Management has guided for net new funded account additions to remain stable sequentially in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026. In Q1 2026, Futu added 225,000 net new accounts, resulting in a total of 3.59 million funded accounts. Based on this guidance, the projected total funded accounts for Q2 2026 is approximately 3.815 million [3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1https://ir.futuholdings.com/static-files/de1f417b-f9b5-4b4d-98e4-7153d28b526fir.futuholdings.com
  2. 2Futu Announces Second Quarter 2025 Unaudited Financialglobenewswire.com
  3. 3FUTU Q1-2026 Earnings Call - Alpha Spreadalphaspread.com
  4. 4Futu (FUTU) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com

6. How might the ongoing US class-action lawsuit concerning CSRC compliance disclosures impact Futu's client acquisition in Q2 2026?

Proposed CSRC PenaltyRMB 1.85 billion (May 2026) [1][2][3][4]
Restrictions Effective DateJune 12, 2026 [5][6][7][8][9][10][11]
Full-Year 2026 Guidance800,000 net new funded accounts [5][6][12]
Futu faces a class-action lawsuit following a significant regulatory penalty. This ongoing U.S. lawsuit against Futu stems directly from a proposed RMB 1.85 billion penalty announced by the CSRC in May 2026 [1][2][3][4]. The penalty addresses Futu's unlicensed cross-border securities business in mainland China [1][2][3][4]. The lawsuit alleges that Futu provided misleading information to investors regarding regulatory risks and misrepresented its financial performance [1][2][3][4].
Regulatory actions directly impact Futu's mainland China client acquisition. These regulatory challenges led to a mandate for Futu to stop accepting new deposits and buy trades for mainland Chinese accounts, effective June 12, 2026 [5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. This measure marks a critical step in the required two-year wind-down of these specific operations [5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. The consequences are expected to influence client acquisition and will likely be evident in the company's Q2 2026 financial results [5][6][7][8][9][10][11].
Mainland China accounts comprise a notable portion of Futu's client base. As of the first quarter of 2026, accounts from mainland China represented approximately 13% of Futu's total 3.59 million funded accounts [5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. Despite these operational hurdles and the impending Q2 2026 results, which are anticipated in August, Futu's management has affirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, targeting 800,000 net new funded accounts [5][6][12]. The company anticipates achieving this growth through expansion in international markets such as Hong Kong, Malaysia, Canada, and Japan [5][6][12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1united states district courtcourthousenews.com
  2. 2Futu Holdings (FUTU) Is Up 5.1% After Class Action Highlights Alleged CSRC Licensing Lapses - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
  3. 3Futu Holdings Limited Class Action Lawsuitzlk.com
  4. 4How Regulatory Sanctions And Fraud Lawsuits At Futu Holdings (FUTU) Have Changed Its Investment Story - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
  5. 5Futu (FUTU) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
  6. 6Futu Holdings stock business: Mainland account share drops to 13%, Q1 net profit declines 61% | Gate Newsgate.com
  7. 7Tiger Brokers, Futu Securities & Longbridge to Stop Deposits & Buy Trades (Effective 12/6/26) for China Mainland Accounts, Only Allow Withdrawals, Sell Trades & Account Closures, 2-Year Grace Period Given to Allow Sell Trades & Outgoing Transfers for 3 Brokerages in China Mainland (Tiger Brokers, Futu Securities & Longbridge) | Caproasiacaproasia.com
  8. 8Futu Announces Q1 2026 Results: Robust Global Growth Sustained, With Revenues Up 25% YoYfutuhk.com
  9. 9https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754581/000110465926067159/tm2615605d1_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
  10. 10Futu Announces First Quarter 2026 Unaudited Financial Resultsca.finance.yahoo.com
  11. 11Moomoo's Parent Company Futu Releases Q1 2026 Results: Revenues up 25% YoY to US$746.9 millionprnewswire.com
  12. 12Futu 1Q Non-GAAP Adj. Profit Slumps 58.5% on CSRC Fineaastock.com

7. How does Futu's user growth in H1 2026 compare to its primary competitor, UP Fintech Holding (Tiger Brokers)?

Futu Q1 2026 Net New Funded Accounts225,000 [1][2][3][4][5]
UP Fintech Q1 2026 Net New Funded Accounts28,900 [6][7][8][9][10]
Futu Q1 2026 Funded Accounts YoY Growth34.3% [1][6]
Futu significantly outpaced Tiger Brokers in Q1 2026 user growth. In the first quarter of 2026, Futu Holdings Limited reported adding a substantially higher number of net new funded accounts compared to its primary competitor, UP Fintech Holding Limited (Tiger Brokers). Futu recorded 225,000 new funded accounts, bringing its total funded accounts to 3.59 million as of March 31, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. In contrast, UP Fintech added 28,900 new funded accounts during the same period, resulting in a total of 1.28 million funded accounts [6][7][8][9][10].
Futu also demonstrated stronger year-over-year growth in funded accounts. Futu Holdings Limited further showcased superior performance in year-over-year growth, with its funded accounts expanding by 34.3% in Q1 2026 [1][6]. Conversely, UP Fintech's funded accounts grew by 11.3% year-over-year during the first quarter of 2026 [1][6].
Full H1 2026 user growth data is not yet available. A complete comparative analysis of user growth for the entire first half of 2026 is currently not feasible for both companies. As of August 4, 2026, the financial results for the second quarter of 2026 have not yet been released, which prevents a comprehensive assessment of user growth for the full first half of 2026 [4][7].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Futu Announces Q1 2026 Results: Robust Global Growth Sustained, With Revenues Up 25% YoYfutuhk.com
  2. 2https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754581/000110465926067159/tm2615605d1_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
  3. 3Moomoo's Parent Company Futu Releases Q1 2026 Results: Revenues up 25% YoY to US$746.9 millionprnewswire.com
  4. 4Futu (FUTU) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
  5. 5Futu Announces First Quarter 2026 Unaudited Financial Resultsca.finance.yahoo.com
  6. 6UP Fintech Holding Limited Reports Unaudited First Quarter 2026 Financial Results - Tiger Brokersitiger.com
  7. 7UP Fintech Holding Ltd. Sponsored ADR Class A (TIGR) Q1 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - June 2, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
  8. 8UP Fintech Holding Limited Reports Unaudited First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.wedbush.com
  9. 9UP Fintech: Q1 Revenue and Client Assets Grow Steadily, Total Revenue Up 26.3% YoY | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  10. 10Tiger Brokers Parent Swings to Loss as China Penalty Wipes Out Its Profitfinancemagnates.com

8. What is the potential upside for Futu's Q2 funded accounts from the June 2026 SFC approval for expanded digital asset trading services in Hong Kong?

SFC Approval DateJune 11, 2026 [1][2][3][4]
Total Funded Accounts (Q1 2026)3.59 million [5][6][7]
Net New Funded Accounts (Q1 2026)225,000 [5][6][7]
Futu received approval for crypto financing, but Q2 impact will be limited. Futu Securities secured approval from the Hong Kong SFC on June 11, 2026, to upgrade its Type 1 license [1][2][3][4]. This upgrade enables eligible clients to use traditional securities as collateral for virtual asset (cryptocurrency) trading financing [1]. Despite this strategic expansion of digital asset services in Hong Kong, the immediate effect on new funded accounts in Q2 2026 is anticipated to be constrained due to the late timing of the approval within the quarter and the conservative nature of virtual asset collateral requirements [1][4].
Futu's Q1 saw growth in funded accounts despite Hong Kong's subdued performance. As of March 31, 2026 (Q1 2026), Futu reported a total of 3.59 million funded accounts, having added 225,000 net new funded accounts during that quarter [5][6][7]. While Hong Kong's client acquisition in Q1 2026 was described as 'subdued,' it remained the company's second-largest contributor of new funded accounts [5][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Futu Securities becomes the first approved virtual asset trading financing brokerage in Hong Kong: Type 1 license service upgraded, traditional securities collateral can be used for cryptocurrency trading - Aiying License & Compliancelicense.aiying.cc
  2. 2Futu First in Hong Kong to Secure SFC Approval for Crypto Margin Trading - Regulation Asiaregulationasia.com
  3. 3Futu wins SFC approval for securities backed...crypto.news
  4. 4Futu Secures Approval to Offer Virtual Asset Margin Trading in Hong Kong | KuCoinkucoin.com
  5. 5Futu Announces Q1 2026 Results: Robust Global Growth Sustained, With Revenues Up 25% YoYfutuhk.com
  6. 6https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754581/000110465926067159/tm2615605d1_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
  7. 7Moomoo's Parent Company Futu Releases Q1 2026 Results: Revenues up 25% YoY to US$746.9 millionprnewswire.com
  8. 8Futu Hldgs Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - Futu Holdings (NASDAQ:FUTU) - Benzingabenzinga.com

9. What do alternative data sources, such as Moomoo app downloads and web traffic, indicate about new user acquisition trends during Q2 2026?

Moomoo App DownloadsOngoing in 2026 [1][2][3]
Futu Total Funded Accounts (Q1 2026)3.59 million [4][5][6][7][8]
Futu Net New Funded Accounts (Q1 2026)225,000 [4][5][6][7][8]
Moomoo app downloads suggest sustained user interest and market focus. Alternative data sources indicate ongoing downloads of the Moomoo app across various platforms throughout 2026 [1][2][3]. This trend aligns with the company's strategic emphasis on retaining its strong market position in key international regions, specifically Singapore, Malaysia, and Australia.
Futu's Q1 funded accounts grew, Q2 outlook stable. In Q1 2026, Futu reported a total of 3.59 million funded accounts, marking a net increase of 225,000 during that quarter [4][5][6][7][8]. While specific quantitative new user acquisition trends for Futu's funded accounts in Q2 2026 are not provided by alternative data, management guidance projected that net new funded account growth for Q2 2026 would remain stable sequentially compared to Q1 [7]. Prediction markets are currently assessing whether Futu's total funded accounts in Q2 2026 will surpass levels such as 3.7 million or 3.8 million [9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1moomoo - Invest & Trade App Trends 2026 moomoo - Invest & Trade Revenue, Downloads and Ratings Statistics - AppstoreSpyappstorespy.com
  2. 2moomoo - Trading & Investing Free APK Downloadappbrain.com
  3. 3moomoo: stocks & trading - Free APK Download for Androidappbrain.com
  4. 4Futu Announces Q1 2026 Results: Robust Global Growth Sustained, With Revenues Up 25% YoYfutuhk.com
  5. 5https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754581/000110465926067159/tm2615605d1_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
  6. 6Futu (FUTU) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
  7. 7FUTU Q1-2026 Earnings Call - Alpha Spreadalphaspread.com
  8. 8Futu (FUTU) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
  9. 9Futu total funded accounts in Q2 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  10. 10Futu total funded accounts in Q2 | Prediction Marketscoinbase.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Futu reported 3,590,325 funded accounts as of March 31, 2026, reflecting 34.3% year-over-year growth [1][2][3][4][5]. Bullish catalysts include international expansion into markets such as Singapore and Japan, diversified revenue streams from corporate services and ECM, and strong normalized growth [6][7].
Bearish catalysts are primarily driven by ongoing regulatory scrutiny from the CSRC [6][7]. This scrutiny involves a proposed RMB 1.85 billion fine and a related securities class action lawsuit [6][7]. The market remains sensitive to account retention, with one expert expressing a need for stability over a six-month period [8].
Futu's Q2 2026 earnings release is estimated for August 19, 2026 [9][10].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: December 17, 2026
  • Closes: December 17, 2026
Sources (10)
  1. 1https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754581/000110465926067159/tm2615605d1_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
  2. 2Futu Announces Q1 2026 Results: Robust Global Growth Sustained, With Revenues Up 25% YoYfutuhk.com
  3. 3Moomoo's Parent Company Futu Releases Q1 2026 Resultsprnewswire.com
  4. 4Moomoo's Parent Company Futu Releases Q1 2026 Results: Revenues up 25% YoY to US$746.9 millionprnewswire.com
  5. 5Futu Announces First Quarter 2026 Unaudited Financial Resultsca.finance.yahoo.com
  6. 6Futu Holdings (FUTU) Is Up 5.1% After Class Action Highlights Alleged CSRC Licensing Lapses - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
  7. 7Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) Stock Research Report | Flashflash.stocksentinel.ai
  8. 8Alex Hormozi’s Warning: Stop Chasing AI, Build This Instead!youtube.com
  9. 9Futu (FUTU) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
  10. 10Futu Holdings Earnings Estimates, EPS & Revenue | NASDAQ:FUTU | Benzingabenzinga.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 7 markets in this series

Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 5 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXFUTU-26MAYFUNDED-3625000: NO (May 28, 2026)
  • KXFUTU-26MAYFUNDED-P3750000: NO (May 28, 2026)
  • KXFUTU-26MAYFUNDED-P3700000: NO (May 28, 2026)
  • KXFUTU-26MAYFUNDED-P3650000: NO (May 28, 2026)
  • KXFUTU-26MAYFUNDED-P3600000: NO (May 28, 2026)