Starbucks Monthly Credit Card Spend in August
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Spend above 100 appears likely, driven by strong Q3 2026 results and raised guidance.
- Above 106 spend is also considered, supported by historical August seasonality and PSL.
Current Context
Sources (20)
- 1Starbucks Coffee Company - Starbucks Reports Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 Resultsinvestor.starbucks.com
- 2Documentsec.gov
- 3Starbucks (SBUX) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 42026-07-29 | Starbucks Reports Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 Results | TSX:SBUX | Press Releasestockhouse.com
- 5Starbucks (SBUX) Q3 2026 earningscnbc.com
- 6SBUX Q3 Earnings Call Highlights Durable Traffic Recoveryau.finance.yahoo.com
- 7Can Starbucks' Raised 2026 Outlook Drive a Durable Earnings Recovery?finance.yahoo.com
- 8Starbucks Korea Payments Drop 20.8 Billion Won After 'Tank Day' Backlash - Seoul Economic Dailyen.sedaily.com
- 9Starbucks Korea June card sales drop over 20 billion won as app users fall 1.1 million - Koreaeuropesays.com
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- 2045 Million Rich Households | AS 475youtube.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 04, 2026: 56.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 56.0%
Outcome: Above 100
Sources (7)
- 1Twosome Place outpaces Starbucks in payments for 3rd straight month amid 'Tank Day' fallout - The Herald Businessbiz.heraldcorp.com
- 2Starbucks dethroned in card spending after 'Tank Day' campaign - THE INVESTORtheinvestor.co.kr
- 3Starbucks Corp (SBUX) 10-Q Quarterly Report July 2026last10k.com
- 4Starbucks Coffee Company - Starbucks Reports Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 Resultsinvestor.starbucks.com
- 5Documentsec.gov
- 6Is The New Starbucks Blending Powder Safe For You?themarysue.com
- 7Starbucks Card Payments Drop by 13.1 Billion Won in a Month Amid "Tank Day" Controversy - The Asia Business Dailyasiae.co.kr
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market concerns Starbucks Monthly Credit Card Spend in August. A YES resolution occurs if the specified August credit card spend is above the contract's threshold (e.g., above 103.5), while a NO resolution occurs if it is at or below the threshold. Trading for this market ends on September 7, 12:00 am EDT, with the maximum payout date set for September 6, 2026. No special settlement conditions regarding data sources or methodologies are detailed in the provided content.
Market Discussion
Starbucks announced strong Q3 fiscal 2026 results, reporting a 7.9% increase in global comparable store sales and raising its full-year outlook, with U.S. comparable sales projected slightly above 6% [1][2][3]. Prediction markets leading up to the Q3 earnings (late July/early August) showed high confidence in positive comparable transactions and sales growth for the company [4][5][6]. However, Starbucks lost its market lead in monthly credit card spending in South Korea for three consecutive months as of August 2026, following a controversial promotion [7].
Sources (7)
- 1Starbucks Q3 2026 Earnings Report: Key Highlights & Financial Analysis (2026)reelyorbit.com
- 2Can Starbucks' Raised 2026 Outlook Drive a Durable Earnings Recovery?finance.yahoo.com
- 3Starbucks Coffee Company - Starbucks Reports Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 Resultsinvestor.starbucks.com
- 4Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 2% company comp… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 5Starbucks comparable transactions growth in Q3… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 6Starbucks (SBUX) Q3 global comparable store sales growth? | Polymarket Event | FrenFlowfrenflow.com
- 7Starbucks dethroned in card spending after 'Tank Day' campaign - The Korea Heraldkoreaherald.com
5. Trader Dashboard
6. What specific forward-looking statements from Starbucks' Q3 2026 earnings call support its raised guidance for U.S. sales growth?
| 2026 US Comparable Sales Guidance | Raised, supported by company confidence [1] |
|---|---|
| Confidence Driver | Continued momentum in sales leverage [2] |
| Guidance Underpinnings | Anticipated disciplined cost initiatives and normalizing margin comparisons [2] |
7. How might back-to-school consumer spending trends in August 2026 influence Starbucks' performance compared to its Q3 2026 results?
| Global Comparable Store Sales Increase | 7.9% (Q3 2026) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| North America Same-Store Sales Growth | 8.1% (Q3 2026) [1][2][3][4] |
| Parents planning to dine out less | 48% (once school resumes) [5] |
Sources (10)
- 1Starbucks Coffee Company - Starbucks Reports Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 Resultsinvestor.starbucks.com
- 2Documentsec.gov
- 3Starbucks Reports Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 Resultsfinance.yahoo.com
- 4Starbucks Q3 2026 Earnings Report: Key Highlights & Financial Analysis (2026)reelyorbit.com
- 5Consumer Pulse Back-to-School 2026 Surveykpmg.com
- 6Starbucks (SBUX) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 7Back-to-school budgets up 11.7% in 2026jll.com
- 82026 Deloitte Back-to-School Surveydeloitte.com
- 9Inflation anxiety reshapes the back-to-school shopping seasonemarketer.com
- 10Starbucks dethroned in card spending after 'Tank Day' campaign - The Korea Heraldkoreaherald.com
8. How did consumer foot traffic and sentiment for Starbucks compare to Dunkin' during the July-August 2026 period?
| Starbucks Mental Market Share | 15.3% [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Dunkin' Mental Market Share | 11.0% [1][2] |
| Starbucks July 2026 Foot Traffic | 89% probability of exceeding 530 million [3] |
Sources (7)
- 1Why Dunkin’ Is So Efficient at Converting the Audience It Reachesmorningconsult.com
- 2Starbucks Is the Leader in the Coffee & Breakfast Restaurants Categorymorningconsult.com
- 3Starbucks Foot Traffic July 2026 Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 4Traffic Data Suggests Starbucks' Turnaround Is Gaining Traction – Placer.ai Blogplacer.ai
- 5Customers are Finding Worth and Value in Starbucks Again - QSR Magazineqsrmagazine.com
- 6Starbucks Coffee Company - Starbucks Reports Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 Resultsinvestor.starbucks.com
- 7How Starbucks refocused on the basics for profitable Q3 2026 resultsinsideretail.asia
9. What is the historical month-over-month trend and seasonality for the specific credit card spend index used by this market?
| August Sales Uptick | 6-12% weekly increase due to Pumpkin Spice Latte launch [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Thailand Campaign Period | July, August, and September 2026 [4] |
| Credit Card Spend Influencers | Average ticket growth, transaction volume, wallet share [5][6] |
Sources (12)
- 1Quantifying the Pumpkin Spice Latte (with real spend data)ramp.com
- 2Pumpkin spice and everything nice for Starbucks salessecondmeasure.com
- 3Starbucks sales shine during 2022 pumpkin spice latte launchsecondmeasure.com
- 4"Coffee is an essential item," JCB points out that in the first four months of 2026 alone, the value of beverage purchases surged 13% - Money & Banking Magazine.en.moneyandbanking.co.th
- 5Starbucks’ transactions, average ticket slowed from October to December 2023 - Earnest Analyticsearnestanalytics.com
- 6Restaurant Spending Underperforms in 2025: March Sees Slight Reboundearnestanalytics.com
- 7Bloomberg Money: SK hynix, Federal Reserve Trust, Prenups | Bloomberg Surveillanceyoutube.com
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- 11Markets Ready for Fed and Tech Earnings | Bloomberg Surveillanceyoutube.com
- 12Amazon Reports Fifth Straight Quarter of Cloud Sales Growth & Apple Sales Slow Down | Bloomberg...youtube.com
10. Do high-frequency third-party spending datasets corroborate Starbucks' optimistic internal forecasts for Q4 2026?
| Starbucks Q4 2026 US sales growth forecast | 6.5% or better [1] |
|---|---|
| Starbucks Q4 2026 operating margin forecast | Above 11% [1] |
| South Korea card payments performance (May–July 2026) | Starbucks underperformed rival Twosome Place [2][3] |
Sources (5)
- 1Starbucks Q3 Earnings: Margins Just Inflected for the First Time Since 2024 | TIKR.comtikr.com
- 2Twosome Place outpaces Starbucks in payments for 3rd straight month amid 'Tank Day' fallout - The Herald Businessbiz.heraldcorp.com
- 3Starbucks dethroned in card spending after 'Tank Day' campaign - THE INVESTORtheinvestor.co.kr
- 4Starbucks Foot Traffic July 2026 Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 5Starbucks Raises Its Full-Year Guidance as Comparable Store Sales Jump 7.9%. Here’s What Investors Need to Know. | The Motley Foolfool.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 14, 2026
- Closes: September 07, 2026
Sources (11)
- 1Starbucks Coffee Company - Starbucks Reports Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 Resultsinvestor.starbucks.com
- 2Starbucks Reports Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 Resultsfinance.yahoo.com
- 3Starbucks (SBUX) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 4Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - Alphastreetnews.alphastreet.com
- 5starbucks-stock-sbux-is-upgraded-why-its-still-not-a-buytipranks.com
- 6Recent Investment Analysts’ Ratings Updates for Starbucks (SBUX) - The Cerbat Gemthecerbatgem.com
- 7Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) Receives $109.42 Average PT from Analysts - The Cerbat Gemthecerbatgem.com
- 8Starbucks® Mobile Apps203.q4cdn.com
- 9Starbucks card reloads slow down in 2025 | Earnest Analyticsearnestanalytics.com
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