BP Monthly Credit Card Spend in September
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Since last update (~21d): The model's probability for spend Above 105.5 rose +22.5pp, flipping the edge as the model led.
- Market-led movement saw Above 111.5 probability rise +94.0pp, compressing the edge significantly.
- Headline model probability surged +11.3pp while the market gained +5.0pp, widening the overall edge.
- Spend index above 107.5 is likely given record September 2026 gasoline prices.
- Spend index above 111.5 appears supported by resilient September 2026 consumer spending.
- Thresholds above 114 have elevated probability due to substantial gasoline price increases.
Current Context
Sources (9)
- 1BP Monthly Credit Card Spend in Septemberkalshi.com
- 2BP Monthly Credit Card Spend in September - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3Will BP Monthly Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4Second quarter 2026 resultsbp.com
- 5Stronger earnings; setting priorities to accelerate deliverybp.com
- 6a0879psec.gov
- 7bp 2Q 2026 results presentation slidesstaging-bp.navitas.bpglobal.com
- 8BP PLC Share News, Key Dates and Documentsfidelity.co.uk
- 9BP Share Price Target of 770p Tests Credibility After Bumerangue Find | ABC Moneyabcmoney.co.uk
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 109.5
📈 October 04, 2026: 84.0pp spike
Price increased from 10.0% to 94.0%
📉 September 28, 2026: 35.0pp drop
Price decreased from 52.0% to 17.0%
📈 September 27, 2026: 20.0pp spike
Price increased from 32.0% to 52.0%
Outcome: Above 107.5
📈 October 03, 2026: 21.0pp spike
Price increased from 71.0% to 92.0%
📈 October 02, 2026: 17.0pp spike
Price increased from 54.0% to 71.0%
Sources (13)
- 1BP Monthly Credit Card Spend in September - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2BP Monthly Credit Card Spend in September — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 3BP (BP) Reddit Mentions & Sentiment: Trending Stocks Tracker | AltIndexaltindex.com
- 4Will BP Monthly Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 5Overseas spending rises as Brits prioritise travel - Business Moneybusiness-money.com
- 6Barclays 5x Spend Bonuses Run Through Oct 31, 2026joinkudos.com
- 7BP Share Price Target of 770p Tests Credibility After Bumerangue Find | ABC Moneyabcmoney.co.uk
- 8BP: Wall Street's Most Boring Oil Major Just Found 8 Billion Barrelsinvestingwithcolby.substack.com
- 9BP Shares Dip 1.2% Amid Energy Sell‑Off: Market Sentiment, Not Company Stress:: AktienSensoraktiensensor.com
- 10UBS warns BP’s US shale ambitions may be premature | LSE:BP.proactiveinvestors.com
- 11Will BP Monthly Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 12BP (LSE: BP) Shares Surged 10% In September — Here Is Whether The Rally Can Continuelondoninsider.co.uk
- 13BP Monthly Credit Card Spend in September - Kalshi noteringen | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the "Above 114" contract on BP Monthly Credit Card Spend in September, a YES resolution occurs if BP's monthly credit card spend for September is above 114. A NO resolution occurs if the spend value is 114 or less. The market is scheduled for a maximum payout by October 6, 2026, with no special settlement conditions explicitly mentioned.
Market Discussion
The prediction market for BP's September 2026 credit card spend shows a strong consensus for year-over-year growth, with probabilities around 98-99% for values above 105.5, and active trading concentrated on the upper tail where 114 serves as a key uncertainty boundary [1]. However, as of October 5, 2026, no official or published BP monthly credit card spend figure for September 2026 could be located in public sources or company filings, indicating that market activity appears to be driven by interpretation rather than disclosed data [1].
5. What Major Economic Reports or Gasoline Price Shifts in September 2026 Could Materially Impact BP's U.S. Consumer Spend Index?
| August Household Spending Growth | 6.1% year over year [1] |
|---|---|
| Federal Funds Target Rate | 3.75%–4.00% (effective Sep 16, 2026) [2] |
| EIA Regular Gasoline Price | $4.157 per gallon (Sep 7, 2026) [3][4] |
Sources (8)
- 1Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, Excluding...bea.gov
- 2Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementfederalreserve.gov
- 3US prices remain high as fuel costs squeeze household budgetsbbc.com
- 4Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update - U.S. Energy Information...eia.gov
- 5US second-quarter GDP revised higher amid robust consumer...reuters.com
- 6National Average Jumps 13 Cents in One Week - AAA Gas Pricesgasprices.aaa.com
- 7September gas prices on pace for record monthwnypapers.com
- 8U.S. Gas Prices | What the $4.46 Average Means | Finelofinelo.com
6. How Does Carbon Arc's Credit Card Panel Data Historically Correlate with BP's Official Reported Downstream Segment Financials?
| Carbon Arc Sept Index Median | around 114 (as of Oct 5, 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| BP Downstream Reporting | Quarterly/annual basis [3] |
| BP 4Q24 Convenience EBITDA | $1.2 billion (versus $1.4 billion in 3Q24) [4][5] |
Sources (7)
- 1BP Monthly Credit Card Spend in September - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2BP Monthly Credit Card Spend in September — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 3Annual Report 2025bp.com
- 44Q24 results presentation slides and scriptbp.com
- 5Fourth quarter 2024 trading statement | News and insights | Homebp.com
- 6Fourth quarter and full year 2025 resultsbp.com
- 7bp CMD 2025 customers and products presentation slides and scriptbp.com
7. How Have Year-Over-Year Consumer Spending Trends at BP Compared to Competitors like Shell and ExxonMobil Throughout 2026?
| BP Sept 2026 Implied Growth | 10%-14% (market pricing implied) [1] |
|---|---|
| BP Above 109.5 Probability | 97% likely (implied by market pricing) [1][2][3] |
| ExxonMobil Above 108 Probability | Roughly 93% (market-moves page) [4][5] |
Sources (5)
- 1BP Monthly Credit Card Spend in September - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2Will BP Monthly Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 3Will BP Monthly Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4Markets & Companies Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 5Prediction Market Moves Today - October 5, 2026 | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
8. What is the Precise Release Schedule for the Carbon Arc Data Used to Settle the Kalshi Market on October 7, 2026?
| Carbon Arc Data Release Schedule | No precise release schedule or guaranteed date and time for Carbon Arc data used to settle the Kalshi market on October 7, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Kalshi Market Scheduled Timestamp | 02:29 UTC (October 6, 10:29 PM EDT) is a market schedule/expiration indicator, not a guaranteed Carbon Arc publication time [3][4][1] |
| Carbon Arc Index Update Cadence | Daily, as new data arrives, with the first qualifying report available before settlement [3][4][1][2] |
Sources (4)
9. What Explains the Discrepancy in Implied Probabilities Between Kalshi's Market and Aggregators like CoinRithm for the September 2026 Outcome?
| CoinRithm 24-hour volume | $8.3K (on Above 111.5) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Kalshi Above 98 probability | 41% (snapshot) [1][2] |
| CoinRithm Above 114 probability | 92%+ (October 5 snapshot) [1][2] |
Sources (5)
- 1BP Monthly Credit Card Spend in Septemberkalshi.com
- 2BP Monthly Credit Card Spend in September - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3Prediction Market Moves Today - October 5, 2026 | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 4BP Monthly Credit Card Spend in September — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 5BP Monthly Credit Card Spend in September - Kalshi noteringen | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: October 14, 2026
- Closes: October 07, 2026
Sources (9)
- 1BP Monthly Credit Card Spend in September - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2Will BP Monthly Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 3Will BP Monthly Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4BP Monthly Credit Card Spend in Septemberkalshi.com
- 5Second quarter 2026 resultsbp.com
- 6BP Stock Rises 1.6%: Why LSE:BP Is in Focus as Oil Surges Above $100kalkine.co.uk
- 7JP Morgan upgrades BP, sees 25% upside on 'road to redemption' | LSE:BP.proactiveinvestors.com
- 8Why Dividend Cover Matters More Than Headline Yield for FTSE 100's BP (BP.)kalkine.co.uk
- 9HSBC Upgrades BP and TotalEnergies to Buy as Higher Oil Forecasts Drive Earnings Revisions — EnergyReader.ioenergyreader.io