Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Walmart's Q2 US comparable sales (ex-fuel) growth to be 4.5%-6%, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market shows a clear downward trend, with the probability of Walmart hitting its Q2 US comparable sales growth target declining from 50.0% on August 4 to a current price of 21.5%. The period was marked by extreme volatility, with the price trading in a wide range between 8.0% and 52.0%. Several large daily price moves occurred. A 25.5 percentage point drop was recorded on August 9, for which no specific cause was identified. This was followed by sharp reversals, including an 8.0 point spike on August 10 and a 19.5 point spike on August 11.
The drivers cited for the price spikes are counterintuitive. The increases on August 10 and 11 are attributed to analyst downgrades, including one from Oppenheimer. Typically, downgrades would pressure a market like this downward, not cause a price spike. This suggests the price may be reacting illogically or that the provided context is misaligned with the price action. The 13.0 point drop on August 12 also lacks a clear catalyst according to the available information.
Crucially, the market has zero traded volume. All price movements appear to be the result of automated or manual adjustments, not organic trading activity. This lack of participation means conventional technical analysis concepts like support and resistance are not applicable, as no levels have been tested by actual trades. The downward trend suggests a deteriorating outlook on Walmart's sales figures, but without any capital committed, this signal lacks conviction. The price reflects a modeled probability rather than a true, traded market consensus.
  • 4.5%-6% comparable sales growth is probable, aligning with prediction markets and company guidance.
  • Analyst consensus centers near 4.0%, consistent with Walmart's 4.1% Q1 growth.

Current Context

Walmart (WMT) will release its fiscal Q2 2027 earnings on August 20, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. As of August 13, 2026, Walmart had not yet released its Q2 FY2027 U.S. comparable sales growth, excluding fuel [5]. Analysts, including Bank of America, project this figure at approximately 3.5% [5]. Prediction markets, such as those on Kalshi, show implied probabilities favoring growth exceeding 4% [6][7].
Analyst projections anticipate moderation from the prior year's growth. Walmart U.S. comparable sales (excluding fuel) grew 4.6% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, which ended August 1, 2025 [8]. This prior growth was driven by a 1.5% increase in transactions and a 3.1% increase in average ticket [8]. Bank of America’s forecast for FY2027 attributes moderation to the conclusion of tax-refund benefits and reduced impacts from general merchandise pricing [5]. Walmart's focus on high-margin advertising and marketplace growth is expected to support profitability, even if comparable sales growth moderates [9][5]. A potential major tariff refund is also a secondary financial development [9][5].
Sources (9)
  1. 1FY2027 Q2 Earnings Releasecorporate.walmart.com
  2. 2Calendar Walmart Inc. - WMT - MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  3. 3Walmart (WMT) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
  4. 4Walmart (WMT) Earnings Dates, Call Summary & Reportstipranks.com
  5. 5Walmart Q2 Results: BofA forecasts $0.74 EPS, 4.6% sales growthscanx.trade
  6. 6Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 — Kalshi Odds & Insights | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  7. 7Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2coinbase.com
  8. 8Walmart reports second quarter resultssec.gov
  9. 9How Investors Are Reacting To Walmart (WMT) Tariff Refund Prospects And Expanding Health Partnerships - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: 3%-4.5%

📈 August 13, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 60.0% to 70.0%

What happened: The provided research does not identify a primary driver for a 10.0 percentage point spike in the Walmart (WMT) Q2 US comparable sales (ex-fuel) prediction market on August 13, 2026. On this date, Walmart's Q2 fiscal year 2027 results, which ended July 31, 2026, had not yet been officially released [1][2][3]. No specific social media activity or traditional news announcements related to Q2 FY27 comparable sales, that could account for such a market movement, are present in the given sources [4][5][6][7][8][9]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a primary or contributing driver based on the available information.

📈 August 12, 2026: 15.5pp spike

Price increased from 43.5% to 59.0%

What happened: The provided web research indicates no evidence of a 15.5 percentage point spike in the prediction market for Walmart's Q2 US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) on August 12, 2026. On that date, Walmart's (WMT) shares experienced a modest increase of approximately 1.9% to 2.4%, with sources explicitly stating no 15.5% spike occurred [10][11][12][13]. Walmart's Q2 fiscal 2027 results were also not scheduled for release until August 20, 2026, meaning no official data was available to cause such a movement [14][15][16]. Without evidence of the reported price movement, it is not possible to identify a primary driver, and no significant social media activity or traditional news corresponding to such a drastic shift was found within the research.

📉 August 11, 2026: 37.5pp drop

Price decreased from 78.5% to 41.0%

What happened: No social media activity was identified as a primary driver for the prediction market's 37.5 percentage point drop concerning Walmart's Q2 comparable sales (ex-fuel) growth on August 11, 2026. The movement appears to have stemmed from traditional market factors, specifically analyst downgrades and investor disappointment regarding conservative guidance following Q1 earnings [17][18]. This sentiment likely shifted market expectations for Q2 comparable sales growth, decreasing the perceived probability of the "3%-4.5%" outcome [17][18]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this specific price movement.

📈 August 09, 2026: 39.5pp spike

Price increased from 37.0% to 76.5%

What happened: The provided research does not indicate a specific social media post, traditional news announcement, or market structure event that directly caused a 39.5 percentage point spike in the prediction market for Walmart's Q2 US comparable sales (ex-fuel) growth on August 9, 2026. Walmart's Q2 FY27 earnings were not yet released on this date, scheduled for August 20, 2026 [19]. While Walmart's stock experienced general volatility due to analyst downgrades and valuation concerns around this period, no specific catalyst for such a sharp prediction market movement is evident in the available data [20][3]. Therefore, social media activity cannot be identified as a primary driver, and its role appears irrelevant based on the provided information.

Outcome: <3%

📈 August 10, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 9.0% to 17.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market spike was the traditional financial news regarding an analyst downgrade. On August 4, 2026, Oppenheimer downgraded Walmart stock to "perform" from "outperform," citing elevated valuations and the risk that actual earnings might fall short of Wall Street consensus expectations ahead of the August 20 Q2 earnings release [21]. This downgrade, reported on August 10 as causing Walmart shares to slip [22], likely intensified investor concerns that comparable sales growth would fall below existing analyst projections, which were already trending below 4.0% [23]. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver or contributing accelerant in the available information.
Sources (23)
  1. 1earningspresentationfy26sec.gov
  2. 2earningspresentationfy27sec.gov
  3. 3Walmart reports first quarter resultssec.gov
  4. 4Pinduoduo (PDD): Is PDD the Best Buy in China?youtube.com
  5. 5Barry Ritholtz: How Not to Invest | Rational Reminder 421youtube.com
  6. 6The Everything Pill | Barron's Streetwiseyoutube.com
  7. 7A War-Sized AI Bet. The Fed Goes Dark. Is One More Hike the Death Shot? | The Weekly Wrapyoutube.com
  8. 8Rupert Mitchell Called It the Worst Chart Imaginable — Then He Bought It: Inside His Anti-Nasdaq Betyoutube.com
  9. 9He Modeled Every Regime Since 1965 | Aahan Menon on What Wins from Hereyoutube.com
  10. 10Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT) Shares Up 2.4% – Still a Buy? - Watch List Newswatchlistnews.com
  11. 11https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/walmart-nasdaqwmt-trading-up-24-heres-why-2026-08-12/marketbeat.com
  12. 12Walmart Q2 Results: BofA forecasts $0.74 EPS, 4.6% sales growthscanx.trade
  13. 13Walmart Could Return to Its Beat-And-Raise Playbook This Quarter, Analyst Says - Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT) - Benzingabenzinga.com
  14. 14FY2027 Q2 Earnings Releasecorporate.walmart.com
  15. 15Walmart (WMT) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
  16. 16Walmart (WMT) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings Call...public.com
  17. 17[Click eStock] Why Did Walmart's Stock Fall Despite Strong Earnings? - The Asia Business Dailyasiae.co.kr
  18. 18Walmart Stock Slides After Analyst Downgrade: Time To Buy Or Stay Away? | Longbridgelongbridge.com
  19. 19WMT · Q2 2027 earnings · Walmart · Happeninghappening.etoro.app
  20. 208-K - 05/21/2026stock.walmart.com
  21. 21Walmart Margin Outlook in Focus Before Aug. 20 Resultsts2.tech
  22. 22Walmart Shares Slip After Oppenheimer Downgradebeijingtimes.com
  23. 23Walmart shares: $59 fire-pit promotion spotlights Marketplace growth, fire ban concernsts2.tech

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves based on Walmart's Q2 U.S. comparable sales (ex-fuel) growth, year-over-year, as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Resolution occurs for the bracket corresponding to the reported growth figure, utilizing the midpoint if a range is given, or the higher bracket if the value falls exactly between two.

If the metric is not included in the official materials or if quarterly earnings are not released by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Subsequent revisions to the reported metric will not be considered.

Market Discussion

The market for Walmart's Q2 US comparable sales (ex-fuel) growth currently shows a strong consensus on the 3%-4.5% range, reflecting Walmart's guidance and analyst projections for steady grocery, health-and-wellness, and e-commerce contributions. A significant portion of traders, however, anticipate growth below 3%, driven by concerns over tempered consumer spending and tariff-related cost pressures. There is limited conviction for sales growth to exceed 4.5%, despite a 4.6% growth in the prior-year period.

5. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Aug 13, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality3
Poor
Liquidity
3

5 contracts · worst first

3%-4.5%3
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

4.5%-6%—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

<3%—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

6%-7.5%—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

7.5%+—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

Move quality
—

No reading right now

5 contracts · worst first

4.5%-6%—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

3%-4.5%—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.17 log-odds, 3.5c, vol 0

<3%—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.20 log-odds, 3.5c, vol 0

6%-7.5%—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

7.5%+—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

5 contracts · worst first

4.5%-6%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
3%-4.5%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
<3%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
6%-7.5%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
7.5%+100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 13, 2026

6. What is the consensus among financial analysts for Walmart's Q2 FY2027 U.S. comparable sales growth?

Consensus Q2 FY2027 US Comparable Sales Growth (ex-fuel)4.0% [1]
Bank of America Q2 FY2027 US Comparable Sales Growth Projection (ex-fuel)3.5% [2]
Q2 FY2027 Earnings Report DateAugust 20, 2026 [3]
Financial analysts project 4.0% comparable sales growth for Walmart. The consensus among financial analysts for Walmart's Q2 FY2027 U.S. comparable sales growth, excluding fuel, is approximately 4.0% [1]. This figure reflects the market's general expectation for the company's performance in the upcoming quarter.
Individual analyst forecasts show some variation around the consensus. Despite this consensus, individual analyst forecasts reveal some variation. Bank of America, for example, has adjusted its projection for Q2 FY2027 U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) to 3.5%. Other analysts' projections for this metric generally range from 3.5% to 4.5% [2][4], indicating a slight divergence in expectations across financial institutions.
Walmart will report Q2 FY2027 earnings on August 20, 2026. Walmart is scheduled to report its Q2 FY2027 earnings on Thursday, August 20, 2026 [3][5][6]. This official release will provide the actual results and further insights into the company's performance.
Sources (6)
  1. 1Walmart (WMT) Q2 Earnings on the Horizon: Analysts' Insights on Key Performance Measuresfinviz.com
  2. 2Walmart Could Return to Its Beat-And-Raise Playbook This Quarter, Analyst Says - Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT) - Benzingabenzinga.com
  3. 3FY2027 Q2 Earnings Releasecorporate.walmart.com
  4. 4Walmart WMT Q2 FY27 Earnings Preview — US Comp, E-Commerce Growth, Advertising, Vizio - alphagridhubalphagridhub.com
  5. 5WMT Earnings August 2026: Date, Time & What to Expect | Finance Calendarfinancecalendar.com
  6. 6Walmart earnings preview: what to watch on the Aug 20 callnews.ifyouspent.com

7. Which product categories—groceries or general merchandise—are expected to be the primary drivers of Walmart's Q2 FY2027 comparable sales results?

Implied probability for U.S. comparable sales growth ex-fuel above 4.0%As of August 2026 [1]
Walmart Q2 FY2027 Net Sales Growth Guidance4.0% to 5.0% [2]
Walmart Q2 FY2027 Adjusted EPS Guidance$0.72 to $0.74 [2]
Specific product categories driving Walmart's Q2 FY2027 comparable sales are not detailed. The available research does not explicitly specify whether groceries or general merchandise are expected to be the primary drivers of Walmart's Q2 FY2027 comparable sales results. However, prediction markets as of August 2026 indicate an implied probability for U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) to exceed 4.0% [1]. While "grocery" is mentioned in a general context regarding inflation [3], the provided facts do not explicitly link it as a primary driver for Walmart's Q2 FY2027 comparable sales.
Walmart projects specific net sales and EPS growth for Q2 FY2027. For this quarter, Walmart's guidance forecasts net sales growth between 4.0% and 5.0%, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $0.72 to $0.74 [2]. Management and analysts are closely monitoring the effects of ongoing fuel cost pressures on consumer spending [2].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 — Kalshi Odds & Insights | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2May 21, 2026 - EX-99.2 - 8-K: Current report | Walmart Inc. (WMT)stock.walmart.com
  3. 3Is Inflation Manipulated? What You Can Do About Ityoutube.com

8. How does Walmart's projected Q2 FY2027 comparable sales growth compare to the recent performance of key competitors like Target and Costco?

Target Q2 FY2026 Comparable Sales Growth Consensus0.9% [1][2]
Costco US Comparable Sales Growth (June 2026)7.6% [3][4][5]
Costco US Comparable Sales Growth (July 2026)6.9% [3][4][5]
Target's Q2 FY2026 comparable sales growth is a key investor focus. Wall Street consensus estimates for Target's growth are approximately 0.9%, though some analysts are anticipating a higher growth of 3% or more. Such a performance would indicate a continued recovery for the retailer [1][2].
Costco recently showed strong U.S. comparable sales growth, excluding gas. The company demonstrated robust performance in recent months, with U.S. comparable sales growth reported at 7.6% in June 2026 and 6.9% in July 2026. These figures exclude the impacts of gas and foreign exchange [3][4][5].
Walmart's projected Q2 FY2027 comparable sales data is unavailable. The provided information does not contain details regarding Walmart's projected Q2 FY2027 comparable sales growth. Therefore, a direct comparison of Walmart's Q2 FY2027 performance against its key competitors, Target and Costco, is not possible based solely on these facts.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Target TGT Q2 2026 Earnings Preview — Comp Trajectory, Gross Margin, Digital, Circle 360 - alphagridhubalphagridhub.com
  2. 2Target Q2 results to offer key test of recovery, says UBSproactiveinvestors.com.au
  3. 3Costco Wholesale Corporation - Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports July Sales Resultsinvestor.costco.com
  4. 4Costco Wholesale Corporation - Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports June Sales Results and Announces Quarterly Cash Dividendinvestor.costco.com
  5. 5Costco (COST) Transcript: Monthly Sales Update July 2026stockanalysis.com

9. What do high-frequency data sources indicate about Walmart's store traffic and average ticket size for the fiscal quarter ending July 2026?

Walmart US Comparable Sales Growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 FY27 (Prediction Market Implied Probability >4.0%)62% [1][2][3]
Walmart Q2 FY27 Net Sales Growth Guidance (constant currency)4.0% to 5.0% [4][5][6][7]
Walmart US Comparable Sales Growth (ex-fuel) in Q1 FY274.1% [4][5][6][7]
Official data regarding Walmart's store traffic and average ticket size for the fiscal quarter ending July 2026 is not yet available, with the Q2 fiscal year 2027 earnings release scheduled for August 20, 2026 [4][5][7]. Despite the absence of official figures, high-frequency data sources, such as prediction markets, generally indicate expectations of strong comparable sales growth for the quarter [1][2][3]. Specifically, prediction markets on platforms like Kalshi show an implied probability of approximately 62% for Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 FY27 to be above 4.0% [1][2][3]. Overall market sentiment anticipates growth exceeding 3.0% to 3.5% [1][2][3].
Walmart's guidance and Q1 results suggest sustained strong sales performance. The company has provided guidance for Q2 FY27 net sales growth of 4.0% to 5.0% (constant currency) [4][5][6][7]. This follows the company's performance in Q1 FY27, where it reported US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) of 4.1% [4][5][6][7]. While these projections and prior quarter results offer insight into sales trends, specific details on store traffic or average ticket size for the quarter ending July 2026 are not available within the provided high-frequency data sources.
Sources (7)
  1. 1Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2kalshi.com
  2. 2Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 — Kalshi Odds & Insights | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3Will Walmart Inc. report Above 4% walmart us comparable… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  4. 4Walmart Q1 FY27 results and FY27 outlook held steady | WMT 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  5. 5Walmart (WMT) earnings Q1 2027cnbc.com
  6. 6Earnings call transcript: Walmart Q1 2027 shows strong...investing.com
  7. 7WMT · Q1 2027 earnings · Walmart · Happeninghappening.etoro.app

10. How might macroeconomic factors, such as consumer spending and the end of tax-refund benefits, impact Walmart's Q2 FY2027 sales performance?

Q2 FY2027 Sales Guidance4% to 5% higher year-over-year [1]
Consumer Spending Pressure FactorsRising energy/fuel costs, fading Q1 tax refunds [2]
Q2 2027 Comparable Sales Growth Expectation (ex-fuel)Often around or slightly above 4% [3][4]
Consumer spending faced pressure entering Q2 FY2027, impacting Walmart's outlook. Walmart management and analysts observed that rising energy and fuel costs, alongside the diminishing effect of Q1 tax refunds, weighed on consumer spending [2]. Despite these headwinds, Walmart had issued Q2 FY2027 guidance, projecting year-over-year sales growth of 4% to 5% [1].
Retailers face a cautious outlook amid global uncertainty and economic factors. The combination of pressured consumer spending and global uncertainty has fostered this cautious perspective for the retail sector [1]. Prediction markets for Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) in Q2 2027 reflected considerable uncertainty, with implied probabilities frequently suggesting growth expectations hovering around or slightly exceeding 4% [3][4]. Consumer spending is identified as a primary driver [5][6], and macroeconomic analyses highlighted a prospect of mediocre real income growth and an already low saving rate [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Walmart wins over broader swath of consumers, but global uncertainty clouds outlook for retailersclick2houston.com
  2. 2Walmart Q1 Sales Up 4.1% Amid Fuel Price Strain, Lower-Income Shoppers Cut Back - Time Newstime.news
  3. 3Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 — Kalshi Odds & Insights | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Will Walmart Inc. report Above 4% walmart us comparable… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  5. 5Instant Reaction: Employers Unexpectedly Shed Jobs; Unemployment Rate Falls | Bloomberg Surveillanceyoutube.com
  6. 6July Jobs Report | Bloomberg Surveillanceyoutube.com
  7. 7US Midyear Outlook: Geopolitical Shocks, the New Fed Era, and Growthyoutube.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Walmart is scheduled to report its fiscal 2027 second-quarter earnings results on August 20, 2026 [1]. The Q2 FY2027 period covers 13 weeks ended July 31, 2026, for which Q2 US comparable sales (ex-fuel) growth will be reported [2]. Analysts from Bank of America Securities project Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) for fiscal Q2 2027 at 3.5%, reflecting a moderation in consumer spending compared to previous periods [1]. Market expectations for fiscal Q2 2027 include constant-currency net sales growth of 4% to 5% [1][3], with some analysts specifically estimating 4.6% [1], and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $0.72 to $0.74 [1][3].
A primary catalyst for the upcoming earnings call involves whether Walmart will raise, hold, or trim its full-year fiscal 2027 outlook [3]. The current full-year fiscal 2027 outlook projects net sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5% and adjusted EPS of $2.75 to $2.85 [3].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: August 20, 2026
Sources (3)
  1. 1Walmart Q2 Results: BofA forecasts $0.74 EPS, 4.6% sales growthscanx.trade
  2. 2earningspresentationfy26sec.gov
  3. 3Walmart earnings preview: what to watch on the Aug 20 callnews.ifyouspent.com