Walmart (WMT) Q2 US comparable sales (ex-fuel) growth?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Walmart's Q2 US comparable sales (ex-fuel) growth to be 4.5%-6%, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- 4.5%-6% comparable sales growth is probable, aligning with prediction markets and company guidance.
- Analyst consensus centers near 4.0%, consistent with Walmart's 4.1% Q1 growth.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| <3% | 19.0% | 7.0% | Analyst consensus and Q1 comparable sales both exceeded 3.0%, suggesting growth above this bracket. |
| 3%-4.5% | 63.0% | 51.0% | Analyst consensus for Q2 comparable sales growth is around 4.0%, aligning with Q1's 4.1% performance. |
| 6%-7.5% | 11.0% | 0.2% | Analyst consensus and Q2 net sales guidance are well below this high growth range. |
| 7.5%+ | — | 7.0% | No completed trade yet. |
| 4.5%-6% | 76.0% | 69.0% | Walmart's Q2 net sales guidance of 4.0% to 5.0% indicates growth within or above this range. |
Current Context
Walmart (WMT) will release its fiscal Q2 2027 earnings on August 20, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . - WMT - MarketScreener" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^][^]. As of August 13, 2026, Walmart had not yet released its Q2 FY2027 U.S. comparable sales growth, excluding fuel [^]. Analysts, including Bank of America, project this figure at approximately 3.5% [^]. Prediction markets, such as those on Kalshi, show implied probabilities favoring growth exceeding 4% [^][^].
Analyst projections anticipate moderation from the prior year's growth. Walmart U.S. comparable sales (excluding fuel) grew 4.6% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, which ended August 1, 2025 [^]. This prior growth was driven by a 1.5% increase in transactions and a 3.1% increase in average ticket [^]. Bank of America’s forecast for FY2027 attributes moderation to the conclusion of tax-refund benefits and reduced impacts from general merchandise pricing [^]. Walmart's focus on high-margin advertising and marketplace growth is expected to support profitability, even if comparable sales growth moderates [^][^]. A potential major tariff refund is also a secondary financial development [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market shows a clear downward trend, with the probability of Walmart hitting its Q2 US comparable sales growth target declining from 50.0% on August 4 to a current price of 21.5%. The period was marked by extreme volatility, with the price trading in a wide range between 8.0% and 52.0%. Several large daily price moves occurred. A 25.5 percentage point drop was recorded on August 9, for which no specific cause was identified. This was followed by sharp reversals, including an 8.0 point spike on August 10 and a 19.5 point spike on August 11.
The drivers cited for the price spikes are counterintuitive. The increases on August 10 and 11 are attributed to analyst downgrades, including one from Oppenheimer. Typically, downgrades would pressure a market like this downward, not cause a price spike. This suggests the price may be reacting illogically or that the provided context is misaligned with the price action. The 13.0 point drop on August 12 also lacks a clear catalyst according to the available information.
Crucially, the market has zero traded volume. All price movements appear to be the result of automated or manual adjustments, not organic trading activity. This lack of participation means conventional technical analysis concepts like support and resistance are not applicable, as no levels have been tested by actual trades. The downward trend suggests a deteriorating outlook on Walmart's sales figures, but without any capital committed, this signal lacks conviction. The price reflects a modeled probability rather than a true, traded market consensus.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 3%-4.5%
📈 August 13, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 60.0% to 70.0%
What happened: The provided research does not identify a primary driver for a 10.0 percentage point spike in the Walmart (WMT) Q2 US comparable sales (ex-fuel) prediction market on August 13, 2026. On this date, Walmart's Q2 fiscal year 2027 results, which ended July 31, 2026, had not yet been officially released [^][^][^]. No specific social media activity or traditional news announcements related to Q2 FY27 comparable sales, that could account for such a market movement, are present in the given sources [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a primary or contributing driver based on the available information.
📈 August 12, 2026: 15.5pp spike
Price increased from 43.5% to 59.0%
What happened: The provided web research indicates no evidence of a 15.5 percentage point spike in the prediction market for Walmart's Q2 US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) on August 12, 2026. On that date, Walmart's (WMT) shares experienced a modest increase of approximately 1.9% to 2.4%, with sources explicitly stating no 15.5% spike occurred [^][^][^][^]. Walmart's Q2 fiscal 2027 results were also not scheduled for release until August 20, 2026, meaning no official data was available to cause such a movement [^][^][^]. Without evidence of the reported price movement, it is not possible to identify a primary driver, and no significant social media activity or traditional news corresponding to such a drastic shift was found within the research.
📉 August 11, 2026: 37.5pp drop
Price decreased from 78.5% to 41.0%
What happened: No social media activity was identified as a primary driver for the prediction market's 37.5 percentage point drop concerning Walmart's Q2 comparable sales (ex-fuel) growth on August 11, 2026. The movement appears to have stemmed from traditional market factors, specifically analyst downgrades and investor disappointment regarding conservative guidance following Q1 earnings [^][^]. This sentiment likely shifted market expectations for Q2 comparable sales growth, decreasing the perceived probability of the "3%-4.5%" outcome [^][^]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this specific price movement.
📈 August 09, 2026: 39.5pp spike
Price increased from 37.0% to 76.5%
What happened: The provided research does not indicate a specific social media post, traditional news announcement, or market structure event that directly caused a 39.5 percentage point spike in the prediction market for Walmart's Q2 US comparable sales (ex-fuel) growth on August 9, 2026. Walmart's Q2 FY27 earnings were not yet released on this date, scheduled for August 20, 2026 [^]. While Walmart's stock experienced general volatility due to analyst downgrades and valuation concerns around this period, no specific catalyst for such a sharp prediction market movement is evident in the available data [^][^]. Therefore, social media activity cannot be identified as a primary driver, and its role appears irrelevant based on the provided information.
Outcome: <3%
📈 August 10, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 9.0% to 17.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market spike was the traditional financial news regarding an analyst downgrade. On August 4, 2026, Oppenheimer downgraded Walmart stock to "perform" from "outperform," citing elevated valuations and the risk that actual earnings might fall short of Wall Street consensus expectations ahead of the August 20 Q2 earnings release [^]. This downgrade, reported on August 10 as causing Walmart shares to slip [^], likely intensified investor concerns that comparable sales growth would fall below existing analyst projections, which were already trending below 4.0% [^]. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver or contributing accelerant in the available information.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves based on Walmart's Q2 U.S. comparable sales (ex-fuel) growth, year-over-year, as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Resolution occurs for the bracket corresponding to the reported growth figure, utilizing the midpoint if a range is given, or the higher bracket if the value falls exactly between two.
If the metric is not included in the official materials or if quarterly earnings are not released by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Subsequent revisions to the reported metric will not be considered.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5%-6% | $0.18 | $0.98 | 76% |
| 3%-4.5% | $0.72 | $0.32 | 63% |
| <3% | $0.42 | $0.98 | 19% |
| 6%-7.5% | $0.19 | $0.97 | 11% |
| 7.5%+ | $0.25 | $0.99 | — |
Market Discussion
The market for Walmart's Q2 US comparable sales (ex-fuel) growth currently shows a strong consensus on the 3%-4.5% range, reflecting Walmart's guidance and analyst projections for steady grocery, health-and-wellness, and e-commerce contributions. A significant portion of traders, however, anticipate growth below 3%, driven by concerns over tempered consumer spending and tariff-related cost pressures. There is limited conviction for sales growth to exceed 4.5%, despite a 4.6% growth in the prior-year period.
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
<3%PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
3%-4.5%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
4.5%-6%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
6%-7.5%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
7.5%+Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 13, 2026
6. What is the consensus among financial analysts for Walmart's Q2 FY2027 U.S. comparable sales growth?
| Consensus Q2 FY2027 US Comparable Sales Growth (ex-fuel) | 4.0% [^] |
|---|---|
| Bank of America Q2 FY2027 US Comparable Sales Growth Projection (ex-fuel) | 3.5% [^] |
| Q2 FY2027 Earnings Report Date | August 20, 2026 [^] |
Financial analysts project 4.0% comparable sales growth for Walmart. The consensus among financial analysts for Walmart's Q2 FY2027 U.S. comparable sales growth, excluding fuel, is approximately 4.0% [^]. This figure reflects the market's general expectation for the company's performance in the upcoming quarter.
Individual analyst forecasts show some variation around the consensus. Despite this consensus, individual analyst forecasts reveal some variation. Bank of America, for example, has adjusted its projection for Q2 FY2027 U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) to 3.5%. Other analysts' projections for this metric generally range from 3.5% to 4.5% [^][^], indicating a slight divergence in expectations across financial institutions.
7. Which product categories—groceries or general merchandise—are expected to be the primary drivers of Walmart's Q2 FY2027 comparable sales results?
| Implied probability for U.S. comparable sales growth ex-fuel above 4.0% | As of August 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Walmart Q2 FY2027 Net Sales Growth Guidance | 4.0% to 5.0% [^] |
| Walmart Q2 FY2027 Adjusted EPS Guidance | $0.72 to $0.74 [^] |
Specific product categories driving Walmart's Q2 FY2027 comparable sales are not detailed. The available research does not explicitly specify whether groceries or general merchandise are expected to be the primary drivers of Walmart's Q2 FY2027 comparable sales results. However, prediction markets as of August 2026 indicate an implied probability for U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) to exceed 4.0% [^]. While "grocery" is mentioned in a general context regarding inflation [^], the provided facts do not explicitly link it as a primary driver for Walmart's Q2 FY2027 comparable sales.
Walmart projects specific net sales and EPS growth for Q2 FY2027. For this quarter, Walmart's guidance forecasts net sales growth between 4.0% and 5.0%, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $0.72 to $0.74 [^]. Management and analysts are closely monitoring the effects of ongoing fuel cost pressures on consumer spending [^].
8. How does Walmart's projected Q2 FY2027 comparable sales growth compare to the recent performance of key competitors like Target and Costco?
| Target Q2 FY2026 Comparable Sales Growth Consensus | 0.9% [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Costco US Comparable Sales Growth (June 2026) | 7.6% [^][^][^] |
| Costco US Comparable Sales Growth (July 2026) | 6.9% [^][^][^] |
Walmart's projected Q2 FY2027 comparable sales data is unavailable. The provided information does not contain details regarding Walmart's projected Q2 FY2027 comparable sales growth. Therefore, a direct comparison of Walmart's Q2 FY2027 performance against its key competitors, Target and Costco, is not possible based solely on these facts.
9. What do high-frequency data sources indicate about Walmart's store traffic and average ticket size for the fiscal quarter ending July 2026?
| Walmart US Comparable Sales Growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 FY27 (Prediction Market Implied Probability >4.0%) | 62% [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Walmart Q2 FY27 Net Sales Growth Guidance (constant currency) | 4.0% to 5.0% [^][^][^][^] |
| Walmart US Comparable Sales Growth (ex-fuel) in Q1 FY27 | 4.1% [^][^][^][^] |
Official data regarding Walmart's store traffic and average ticket size for the fiscal quarter ending July 2026 is not yet available, with the Q2 fiscal year 2027 earnings release scheduled for August 20, 2026 [^] [^] [^] . Despite the absence of official figures, high-frequency data sources, such as prediction markets, generally indicate expectations of strong comparable sales growth for the quarter [^][^][^]. Specifically, prediction markets on platforms like Kalshi show an implied probability of approximately 62% for Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 FY27 to be above 4.0% [^][^][^]. Overall market sentiment anticipates growth exceeding 3.0% to 3.5% [^][^][^].
Walmart's guidance and Q1 results suggest sustained strong sales performance. The company has provided guidance for Q2 FY27 net sales growth of 4.0% to 5.0% (constant currency) [^][^][^][^]. This follows the company's performance in Q1 FY27, where it reported US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) of 4.1% [^][^][^][^]. While these projections and prior quarter results offer insight into sales trends, specific details on store traffic or average ticket size for the quarter ending July 2026 are not available within the provided high-frequency data sources.
10. How might macroeconomic factors, such as consumer spending and the end of tax-refund benefits, impact Walmart's Q2 FY2027 sales performance?
| Q2 FY2027 Sales Guidance | 4% to 5% higher year-over-year [^] |
|---|---|
| Consumer Spending Pressure Factors | Rising energy/fuel costs, fading Q1 tax refunds [^] |
| Q2 2027 Comparable Sales Growth Expectation (ex-fuel) | Often around or slightly above 4% [^][^] |
Consumer spending faced pressure entering Q2 FY2027, impacting Walmart's outlook. Walmart management and analysts observed that rising energy and fuel costs, alongside the diminishing effect of Q1 tax refunds, weighed on consumer spending [^]. Despite these headwinds, Walmart had issued Q2 FY2027 guidance, projecting year-over-year sales growth of 4% to 5% [^].
Retailers face a cautious outlook amid global uncertainty and economic factors. The combination of pressured consumer spending and global uncertainty has fostered this cautious perspective for the retail sector [^]. Prediction markets for Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) in Q2 2027 reflected considerable uncertainty, with implied probabilities frequently suggesting growth expectations hovering around or slightly exceeding 4% [^][^]. Consumer spending is identified as a primary driver [^][^], and macroeconomic analyses highlighted a prospect of mediocre real income growth and an already low saving rate [^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Walmart is scheduled to report its fiscal 2027 second-quarter earnings results on August 20, 2026 [^] . The Q2 FY2027 period covers 13 weeks ended July 31, 2026, for which Q2 US comparable sales (ex-fuel) growth will be reported [^]. Analysts from Bank of America Securities project Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) for fiscal Q2 2027 at 3.5%, reflecting a moderation in consumer spending compared to previous periods [^]. Market expectations for fiscal Q2 2027 include constant-currency net sales growth of 4% to 5% [^][^], with some analysts specifically estimating 4.6% [^], and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $0.72 to $0.74 [^][^].
A primary catalyst for the upcoming earnings call involves whether Walmart will raise, hold, or trim its full-year fiscal 2027 outlook [^] . The current full-year fiscal 2027 outlook projects net sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5% and adjusted EPS of $2.75 to $2.85 [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: August 20, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Walmart is scheduled to report its fiscal 2027 second-quarter earnings results on August 20, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: The Q2 FY2027 period covers 13 weeks ended July 31, 2026, for which Q2 US comparable sales (ex-fuel) growth will be reported [^] .
- Trigger: Analysts from Bank of America Securities project Walmart U.S.
- Trigger: Comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) for fiscal Q2 2027 at 3.5%, reflecting a moderation in consumer spending compared to previous periods [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
