Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Costco's monthly foot traffic in August 2026 to be Above 93, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The prediction market for Costco's August 2026 foot traffic shows a sharp upward trend. The price initiated at 0.0% on August 3, 2026, and jumped to 49.0% the following day, currently trading at 54.0%. This significant price movement is directly attributable to news coverage on August 3rd announcing a new Costco warehouse opening in the Capital Region on August 4th. This news appears to have prompted a rapid upward revision of expectations for foot traffic. The price currently sits at its peak, with no established support or resistance levels given the market's recent inception and vertical price action.
Total traded volume is zero contracts. This indicates the price movement is not supported by significant capital deployment and may reflect market maker adjustments to new information rather than broad participant conviction. Market sentiment, as reflected by the price, is positive, driven by the expansion news. However, the market is also awaiting Costco's July 2026 sales results, due August 5th. This report is a key data point for traders assessing whether a deceleration in sales growth seen in June 2026 will persist, which could influence future price discovery in this market.
  • Foot traffic "Above 93" appears unlikely, with 1% model probability. This low likelihood reflects June 2026 comparable sales growth deceleration. * Historical August seasonal demand suggests a generally positive foot traffic outcome.

Current Context

August 2026 foot traffic data is not yet available, but July sales are imminent. As of August 4, 2026, Costco's monthly foot traffic for August 2026 is unavailable. The company will report July 2026 sales results on Wednesday, August 5, 2026 [1][2][3]. Analysts are monitoring Costco's sales growth trends due to a deceleration in comparable sales growth in June 2026. The July sales report is a key indicator for whether this slowdown is temporary or a broader trend [1][2][4].
Costco's Q3 2026 showed strong sales, income, and increased foot traffic. In its fiscal third quarter, which ended May 10, 2026, Costco reported net sales of $69.15 billion, an 11.6% year-over-year increase [5][6][7][8]. Net income was $2.19 billion [5][6][9]. Worldwide shopping traffic (frequency) increased 2.4% during this period [5][8]. Costco is scheduled to report its fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results on September 24, 2026, with Wall Street anticipating EPS of approximately $6.50 [10].
Pop culture relevance of the "Costco Guys" continues through 2026. While not a financial metric, the "Costco Guys" (Andrew Befumo and Big Justice) achieved viral social media success and collaborated with AEW in 2024, maintaining pop culture media relevance through 2026 [11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Costco Stock Is 13% Off Its High. Here’s What’s Behind the Pullback | TIKR.comtikr.com
  2. 2Costco Stock (NASDAQ:COST) Must Sustain Its 48x Earnings Valuation for $1 Trillion Markts2.tech
  3. 3Costco's Path to $1 Trillion Hinges on Sustaining Premium Valuation | StockTistockti.com
  4. 4Costco Shares Drop 13% From High Amid Slowing Sales Growthfakta.co
  5. 5Costco Wholesale Corporation - Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports Third Quarter and Year-To-Date Operating Results For Fiscal 2026investor.costco.com
  6. 6Documentsec.gov
  7. 7Costco Wholesale Corp New (COST) 10-Q Quarterly Report June 2026last10k.com
  8. 8Costco Wholesale: Q3-FY26 | MarketScreener Canadaca.marketscreener.com
  9. 9Usfijitimes | Costco (COST) Q3 2026 Earnings Transcriptusfijitimes.org
  10. 10A Lawsuit Is Fighting Over Costco’s Tariff Refund. Here’s What It Means for the Stock | TIKR.comtikr.com
  11. 11AEW Full Gear: Big Boom AJ, Big Justice and The Rizzler defeat Q.T. Marshall - ESPNespn.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 03, 2026: 49.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 49.0%

Outcome: Above 93

What happened: The primary driver for the prediction market price spike was the traditional news of a significant Costco expansion. News coverage on August 3, 2026, announced the imminent opening of a new Costco warehouse in the Capital Region on August 4, 2026 [1]. This event likely increased the perceived probability that overall August foot traffic would exceed "93," a threshold closely associated with Costco's high membership renewal rates, often cited around 92-93% [2][1]. Social media, in terms of influential posts or viral narratives, was not a primary driver based on the available information.
Sources (2)
  1. 1THE FINAL COUNTDOWN: After years of discussion, the...facebook.com
  2. 2The Kirkland Hedge: Costco’s Ascent to $1,000 Signals a Resilient but Anxious US Consumer | The Porterville Recorderrecorderonline.marketminute.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if Costco's monthly foot traffic for August is above 98, and to NO if it is 98 or below. The market closes for trading on September 7, 12:00 am EDT, with a maximum payout date specified as September 6, 2026, indicating a potentially long settlement period.

Market Discussion

Costco sustains strong foot traffic and membership loyalty as of August 2026, supported by a broadening shopper base and consistent demand for fuel centers, despite recent policy changes [1][2][3]. The company announced robust Q3 fiscal year 2026 results, with net sales increasing by 11.6% for the period ending May 10, 2026, and is scheduled to report its July sales figures on Wednesday, August 5, 2026 [4][5][6][7]. However, as of August 4, 2026, major prediction markets do not appear to offer trading specifically on Costco monthly foot traffic [8][9][10][11][12][13].

Sources (13)
  1. 1Retail Trends 2026: Walmart, Target, Costco & Dollar General Performance Insights - Placer.aiplacer.ai
  2. 2Costco Broadens Audience While Tightening Membership – Placer.ai Blogplacer.ai
  3. 3Placer.ai: Costco Foot Traffic Points to Increased Loyalty | NACSconvenience.org
  4. 4Costco Wholesale Corporation - Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports Third Quarter and Year-To-Date Operating Results For Fiscal 2026investor.costco.com
  5. 5Costco Stock (NASDAQ:COST) Must Sustain Its 48x Earnings Valuation for $1 Trillion Markts2.tech
  6. 6Costco Wholesale (COST) Stock Price Prediction 2026–2050pricepredictions.ai
  7. 7COSTCO STOCK PRICE PREDICTION 2026, 2027, 2028-2030 - Long Forecastlongforecast.com
  8. 8Super Bowl LX betting buzz: Was Mark Wahlberg at the game? A $23 million question - ESPNespn.com
  9. 9World Cup betting numbers could eclipse Super Bowl, March Madness - ESPNespn.com
  10. 10First week of World Cup betting brings record action at U.S. sportsbooks - ESPNespn.com
  11. 11How Kalshi and prediction markets are disrupting sports bettingafrica.espn.com
  12. 12Future is unpredictable for prediction markets as courts add to confusion - ESPNespn.com
  13. 13Prediction markets create new leak temptations for NFL draft - ESPNafrica.espn.com

5. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Aug 4, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 4, 2026

6. How will Costco's July 2026 sales report, scheduled for August 5, likely influence analyst expectations for August foot traffic?

July 2026 Sales Report ReleaseAugust 5, 2026 [1][2][3]
July 2026 Sales Report PeriodJuly 6 through August 2, 2026 [1][2][3]
H1 2026 TrendStore visits increased, but basket size and spending growth slowed [4]
Costco's July sales report is key for August foot traffic analysis. Scheduled for release on August 5, 2026, this report will be crucial for analysts in assessing subsequent August foot traffic [1][2][3][5][6]. Covering the four-week period from July 6 through August 2, 2026, the report provides indications of traffic resilience against potential e-commerce weakness or softening average ticket values [1][2][3][5][6]. Analysts specifically use these findings to determine if foot traffic is robust enough to offset other potential weaknesses, with August foot traffic often influenced by seasonal back-to-school demand [5][6].
Analyst expectations face challenges from shifting spending patterns. Expectations for foot traffic are highly sensitive to year-over-year (YoY) comparison metrics, which have become increasingly challenging throughout summer 2026 [7]. Recent H1 2026 data reveals a divergence where Costco is experiencing increased store visits but a slowdown in basket size and overall spending growth [4]. This trend is notably influenced by Gen Z, who contribute to traffic but exhibit lower spending per trip compared to older demographics [4].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Costco Wholesale Corporation - Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports June Sales Results and Announces Quarterly Cash Dividendinvestor.costco.com
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3Costco (COST) Transcript: Monthly Sales Update June 2026stockanalysis.com
  4. 4Retail Foot Traffic vs. Real-World Sales: What the Data Revealsfacteus.com
  5. 5https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/costcos-total-sss-in-august-were-stable-says-da-davidson-theflytipranks.com
  6. 6Is Costco’s Momentum Built to Last? – Placer.ai Blogplacer.ai
  7. 7Costco (COST) Stock: Wall Street Maintains Confidence Despite June Sales Slowdown | MEXC Newsmexc.com

7. What historical seasonal trends in Costco's Q4 performance (July-September) support the current market pricing for August 2026 foot traffic?

August 2025 Overall Visits Increase5.5% [1][2][3]
August 2025 Same-Store Visits Increase4.0% [1][2][3]
August 2025 Net Sales Increase8.7% [4]
Costco's August foot traffic consistently grows, driven by back-to-school shopping. Research indicates that Costco's Q4 performance, particularly during the August period, has demonstrated consistent multi-year year-over-year growth in foot traffic [1][2][3]. This sustained trend provides support for current market pricing projections for August 2026 foot traffic. A primary driver for this consistency is the back-to-school shopping season, which enables Costco to frequently outperform broader brick-and-mortar retail trends during the late summer months [1][2].
Historical data confirms August foot traffic increases and strong sales. The consistent growth in August foot traffic is clearly demonstrated by historical data, including a reported 5.5% increase in overall visits and a 4.0% rise in same-store visits during August 2025 [1][2][3]. This elevated foot traffic aligns directly with robust sales performance, which was evidenced by an 8.7% net sales increase and 6.3% total company comparable sales growth for August 2025 [4].
Operational changes have smoothed traffic, sustaining higher visitation volumes. Costco's introduction of early morning shopping hours for Executive Members in mid-2025 has effectively influenced daily traffic patterns [5][6][7]. This strategic initiative has successfully reduced peak-hour congestion while simultaneously encouraging more efficient, frequent, and shorter shopping trips among its members, thereby contributing to sustained higher overall visitation volumes [5][6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Is Costco’s Momentum Built to Last? – Placer.ai Blogplacer.ai
  2. 2Costco defies retail slowdown with August traffic growthmassmarketretailers.com
  3. 3Costco Reports Increase in Visits | NACSconvenience.org
  4. 4Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports August Sales Resultsglobenewswire.com
  5. 5Superstores and Warehouse Clubs Find Early Holiday Momentum – Placer.ai Blogplacer.ai
  6. 6Costco Early Openings Reshape Store Traffic Patterns – Placer.ai Blogplacer.ai
  7. 7Costco Sees Higher Traffic From New Executive Member...businessinsider.com

8. How did Costco's most recent quarterly shopping frequency growth compare to that of key competitors like Walmart and Sam's Club?

Costco recent shopping frequency increase2.40% [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Sam's Club transaction growth6.2% [7][8]
Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth4.60% [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Costco saw modest shopping frequency growth with lower average order values. In its most recent quarterly report, Costco's shopping frequency increased by 2.40% [1][2][3][4][5][6], with a 2% increase also noted in fiscal Q3 2026 [9]. Management described this growth as healthy but at a more normalized pace. Despite maintaining positive traffic and transaction growth, data suggests that members are visiting stores more frequently but purchasing less per basket, contributing to a decline in average order value [10].
Costco's frequency growth lagged behind key competitors. Sam's Club reported a transaction growth of 6.2% in its most recent quarter [7][8], significantly exceeding Costco's shopping frequency growth during a comparable period. Walmart U.S. also reported 4.60% comparable sales growth, which management attributed to stronger customer activity and transactions [1][2][3][4][5][6]. It is important to note that neither Sam's Club nor Walmart published a standalone shopping-frequency growth rate, making Walmart's comparable sales growth a proxy rather than a direct metric for comparison [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Sources (10)
  1. 1COST_Q32026, Page: 2Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  2. 2COST_Q32026, Page: 8Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  3. 3WMT_Q22026, Page: 1Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  4. 4WMT_Q22026, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  5. 5WMT_Q22026, Page: 6Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  6. 6WMT_Q22026, Page: 10Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  7. 7Walmart quarterly net income up almost 19%, revenue rises 7.3% - Talk Business & Politicstalkbusiness.net
  8. 8Walmart 1Q FY27 Earnings Update: The flywheel is spinning, same as the fuel bill | FSM Globalsecure.fundsupermart.com
  9. 9Costco Q3 2026 revenue up 12% with EPS growthstocktitan.net
  10. 10Retail Foot Traffic vs. Real-World Sales: What the Data Revealsfacteus.com

9. What alternative data sources, such as Placer.ai or SafeGraph, are available to track Costco's foot traffic in near-real-time through August 2026?

Key Foot Traffic ProvidersPlacer.ai, SafeGraph, Advan Research [1][2][3][4]
Data GranularityDaily or hourly data points [5][6][7][3]
Data Delivery MethodAPI or cloud-based data feeds [6]
Several alternative data providers offer near-real-time foot traffic data for retailers like Costco. Placer.ai, SafeGraph, and Advan Research are leading professional platforms providing insights for such analysis [1][2][3][4]. Placer.ai specializes in retail-specific visit trends and visualization, while SafeGraph is widely used for raw Point of Interest (POI) and hourly visit data, enabling custom modeling [1][2][3]. Advan Research provides specific 'Location Ticker' data for publicly traded entities such as Costco (COST), delivering granular foot traffic metrics useful for financial analysis and forecasting [4].
Professional-grade foot traffic data is typically delivered through APIs or cloud-based data feeds to facilitate near-real-time integration into analytical models [6]. These platforms offer varying degrees of real-time or near-real-time insights, with some providing daily or even hourly data points [3][5][6][7]. Access to the most granular and current data feeds usually necessitates enterprise subscriptions [3][5][6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Placer vs SafeGraph vs Unacast: Foot Traffic Data (2026) | GrowthFactorgrowthfactor.ai
  2. 2Placer.ai Alternatives for Site Selection (2026) | Geodgeod.app
  3. 3Foot traffic data providers: 9 foot traffic data sources + examplespassby.com
  4. 4Location Ticker Data For Costco Wholesale Corp | Advanadvanresearch.com
  5. 5What Are Real-Time Foot Traffic Metrics? Best Predictive Foot Traffic Datasets 2026 - PassBypassby.com
  6. 6Foot Traffic Data: The Complete Guide to Analytics...passby.com
  7. 7AI Foot Traffic Analytics Hit CRE Valuation 2026theaiconsultingnetwork.com

10. What impact are macroeconomic indicators from July and August 2026, such as the Consumer Confidence Index and retail sales data, expected to have on Costco's performance?

Consumer Confidence Index (July 2026)Fell by 1.4 points to 90.8 [1]
US retail and food services sales data releaseAugust 14, 2026 [2]
Costco comparable sales growth (June 2026)Slowdown due to persistent inflation [3]
Conflicting consumer confidence and spending trends anticipate a negative impact on Costco. In July 2026, U.S. consumer confidence presented conflicting signals, with some reports indicating a slight improvement in overall sentiment [4], even as the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped by 1.4 points to 90.8 [1]. Despite strong foot traffic, consumers are becoming more conservative with their disposable income, leading to downward pressure on basket sizes, which is expected to negatively impact Costco's performance and financial results [1][4][3][5].
Weak consumer sentiment and inflation are slowing Costco's sales growth. Despite Costco's historical resilience, consumers generally remain pessimistic about the economic outlook, and persistent inflation has already contributed to a slowdown in Costco's comparable sales growth in June 2026 [1][3]. Analysts are closely monitoring upcoming data releases for crucial insights into consumer spending. The July 2026 U.S. retail and food services sales data, set for release on August 14, 2026, is a key indicator [2]. Additionally, speculation surrounds August 2026 monthly foot traffic, as analysts evaluate the combined influence of back-to-school demand, broader economic cooling, and evolving consumer habits [3][5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1US Consumer Confidence Edged Down in Julyprnewswire.com
  2. 2US Retail Sales August 2026: Date, Time & What to Expect | Finance Calendarfinancecalendar.com
  3. 3What to Expect From Costco Wholesale's Q4 2026 Earnings Reportbarchart.com
  4. 4US consumer sentiment perks up in Julyreuters.com
  5. 5Retail Foot Traffic vs. Real-World Sales: What the Data Revealsfacteus.com
  6. 6Is Costco’s Momentum Built to Last? – Placer.ai Blogplacer.ai

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Costco's July sales report, scheduled for release on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, at 1:15 p.m. PT, represents the most immediate catalyst, with investors monitoring for persistence of June's growth deceleration [1][2][3][4]. The company's fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings report is confirmed for release on Thursday, September 24, 2026, after market close [1][2][5][6]. Additionally, a $1.47 cash dividend per share is payable on August 7, 2026, for shareholders of record as of the July 24, 2026, ex-dividend date [7].
Despite a recent deceleration in comparable sales growth in June 2026, Costco has demonstrated resilient foot traffic and membership loyalty throughout 2026 [3][4][6]. Bullish catalysts include sustained executive membership growth, with penetration near 75%, and robust digital/e-commerce sales, up over 21% last quarter [3][4][6][7]. Conversely, bearish concerns center on the company's premium valuation, with a forward P/E in the low-40s, coupled with slowing growth rates and macro risks such as inflation and commodity volatility [3][4][6][7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 14, 2026
  • Closes: September 07, 2026
Sources (7)
  1. 1Costco Earnings Date & Event Calendarwallstreethorizon.com
  2. 2Costco (COST) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings Call...public.com
  3. 3Costco Stock Is 13% Off Its High. Here’s What’s Behind the Pullback | TIKR.comtikr.com
  4. 4Costco's Path to $1 Trillion Hinges on Sustaining Premium Valuation | StockTistockti.com
  5. 5COST Q4 2026 earnings estimate — revenue & EPStickerleague.com
  6. 6Costco (COST) Stock Forecast: Cooling Sales Growth,...tradingkey.com
  7. 7Costco Stock Outlook: Stable Dividend, Strong Growth & Investor‑Focused Value:: Gevestorgevestor.com