Neptune Insurance policies in force in Q1 2027
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Policies above 361,000 are favored by historical quarterly growth rates.
- Model projects 380,000 policies in force for Q1 2027.
- Atlas+ platform growth and distribution expansion support higher policy counts.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 367000 | 66.0% | 74.0% | Historical growth rates project approximately 380,000 policies in force for Q1 2027. |
| Above 361000 | 83.0% | 88.0% | Historical growth rates project approximately 380,000 policies in force for Q1 2027. |
| Above 364000 | 0.0% | 75.4% | Historical growth rates project approximately 380,000 policies in force for Q1 2027. |
| Above 370000 | 0.0% | 20.0% | Historical growth rates project approximately 380,000 policies in force for Q1 2027. |
| Above 373000 | 0.0% | 20.0% | Historical growth rates project approximately 380,000 policies in force for Q1 2027. |
Current Context
Sources (11)
- 1Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. - Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.neptuneflood.com
- 2q32026-earningspresentatsec.gov
- 3Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (via Public) / Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending September 30, 2026 (Form 10-Q)pubt.io
- 4Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Form 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2026sec.gov
- 5Neptune Insurance policies in force next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 6Neptune Insurance raises 2026 revenue outlook to $204Mstocktitan.net
- 7Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc (NP) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and Analyst Predictionsadvfn.com
- 8NP Forecast, Price Target & Analyst Ratings | ChartMill.comchartmill.com
- 9Neptune (NP) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 10Neptune posts flood records as NFIP uncertainty drives agents private | Insurance Businessinsurancebusinessmag.com
- 11Neptune projects about $238M of 2027 revenue with about 61% adjusted EBITDA margin as Atlas+ adoption expands (NYSE:NP) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 October 26, 2026: 72.0pp spike
Price increased from 7.0% to 79.0%
Outcome: Above 361000
Sources (6)
- 1q32026-earningspresentatsec.gov
- 2Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. - Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.neptuneflood.com
- 3Neptune posts flood records as NFIP uncertainty drives agents private | Insurance Businessinsurancebusinessmag.com
- 4Neptune Insurance Q3 net income jumps 50% on strong premium growth — TradingView Newstradingview.com
- 5Neptune Insurance (NRP) Stock Price Slips As Q3 Earnings Flex Marginsfinance.yahoo.com
- 6Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if Neptune Insurance's policies in force for Q3 2026 are above the specified threshold for the contract (e.g., 373,000 for "Above 373000"). A NO resolution occurs if the policies in force are at or below this threshold. Trading for this market concludes on April 21, 4:00 PM EDT, with the maximum payout date set for August 19, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 361000 | $0.83 | $0.18 | 83% |
| Above 367000 | $0.67 | $0.34 | 66% |
| Above 364000 | $0.74 | $0.27 | 0% |
| Above 370000 | $0.61 | $0.40 | 0% |
| Above 373000 | $0.53 | $0.48 | 0% |
| Above 376000 | $0.46 | $0.55 | 0% |
| Above 379000 | $0.38 | $0.63 | 0% |
| Above 382000 | $0.25 | $0.76 | 0% |
| Above 385000 | $0.14 | $0.87 | 0% |
| Above 388000 | $0.10 | $0.91 | 0% |
| Above 391000 | $0.08 | $0.93 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Neptune reported 336,257 policies in force as of Q3 2026, representing a 29.3% year-over-year increase, alongside 84.1% policy retention [1][2]. Public sentiment appears bullish, with social mentions up significantly, and momentum is noted from a Q4 earnings beat, further supported by Neptune's leading position in private residential flood insurance [3][4][5][6]. A prediction market for Q1 2027 policies in force currently indicates a 64% chance of exceeding 370,000, suggesting expectations of continued growth [7].
Sources (7)
- 1q32026-earningspresentatsec.gov
- 2Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Form 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2026sec.gov
- 3Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Stock Forum (NYSE:NP) – TradingView Mindstradingview.com
- 4Topic $np | LunarCrush for AIlunarcrush.ai
- 5Neptune Insurance $NP — Q4 beat; gap +11.47%linkedin.com
- 6"Neptune Flood is by far the largest net winner," with about half of the residential market share in private flood," said Tommy McJoynt, an analyst at KBW. | Loren Pomerantzlinkedin.com
- 7Neptune Insurance policies in force next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
5. What is the data-driven forecast for Neptune’s Policies in Force for Q1 2027 based on its historical quarterly growth rates through Q3 2026?
| Q1 2027 Policies in Force Forecast | 380,000 policies [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Policies in Force Q3 2026 | 336,300 policies [1][3] |
| Arithmetic Mean Quarterly Growth Rate | 6.30% [1][2] |
6. What impact could the 2027 hurricane season outlook and potential NFIP reforms have on Neptune's policy growth leading into Q1 2027?
| Q3 2026 New-Business Premium Growth | 51% year over year [1][2] |
|---|---|
| NFIP Policyholders Below Full-Risk Pricing | 42% [3][4][5][6] |
| Annual NFIP Subsidies | $2.6 billion [3][4][5][6] |
Sources (11)
- 1q32026-earningspresentatsec.gov
- 2Neptune (NP) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 3Federal Register :: National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP); Assistance to Private Sector Property Insurers, Notice of FY 2027 Arrangementfederalregister.gov
- 4Observations on Flood Insurance Reform: A Response to the FEMA Review Council’s Recommendations - Neptune Floodneptuneflood.com
- 5Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. - Neptune Flood Prepared to Help Strengthen National Flood Resilience as FEMA Review Council Urges Growth of the Private Marketinvestors.neptuneflood.com
- 6Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. - $2.6 Billion in NFIP Subsidies Remain Five Years into Risk Rating 2.0, Neptune Flood Research Group Analysis of FEMA Data Showsinvestors.neptuneflood.com
- 72027 Atlantic Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 8Climate Prediction Center - Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Archivecpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 92027 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Names, Pronunciations and...htxelitebuild.com
- 10Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 11What a Quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season Might Mean for 2027 Weather - Newsweeknewsweek.com
7. How does the growth from Neptune's Atlas+ platform and distribution expansion compare against the negative pressure from its declining policy retention rates observed in 2026?
| Policies in Force | 336,257 as of Q3 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Policies in Force YoY Growth | 29.3% [1][2] |
| Q3 Eligible Policy Retention | 84.1% [3][1] |
Sources (6)
- 1Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Form 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2026sec.gov
- 2q32026-earningspresentatsec.gov
- 3q22026-earningspresentatsec.gov
- 4Earnings call transcript: Neptune Flood posts strong Q3 2026 growth By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 5Neptune (NP) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 6Q3 2026 - Earnings Presentationmms.businesswire.com
8. When will Neptune release its Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 results, and where in those filings will the official Policies in Force metric be located?
| Expected Q4 2026 Results Release | February 17, 2027 [1] |
|---|---|
| Expected Q1 2027 Results Release | April 28, 2027 (analyst estimate) [2] |
| Authoritative Policies in Force Location | SEC quarterly filing (Form 10-Q), Item 2, Key Performance Indicators subsection [3] |
Sources (4)
9. What range of Policies in Force for Q1 2027 is implied by Neptune's official 2027 revenue guidance and current analyst estimates?
| Practical Q1 2027 Policies | 312 thousand to 354 thousand [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Broader Q1 2027 Policies | 312 thousand to 360 thousand [1][2][3] |
| Q3 2026 Policies in Force | 336.3 thousand [1] |
Sources (6)
- 1Q3 2026 - Earnings Presentationmms.businesswire.com
- 2Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
- 3Neptune Insurance Holdings (NP) Business Metrics & Revenue Breakdownstockanalysis.com
- 4Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. - Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.neptuneflood.com
- 5np-2026q1earningspresentsec.gov
- 6Neptune Insurance Q1 results, $100M buyback OK | NP Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: August 19, 2027
- Closes: August 19, 2027
Sources (6)
- 1Neptune (NP) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 2Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (via Public) / Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending September 30, 2026 (Form 10-Q)pubt.io
- 3Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Form 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2026sec.gov
- 4Q3 2026 - Earnings Presentationmms.businesswire.com
- 5Neptune Beats And Raises Again, But A 17% Growth Outlook For 2027 Shifts The Debate To Durabilityfinviz.com
- 6Neptune Insurance policies in force next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 5 markets in this series
Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXNP-26OCTPIF-350000: NO (Oct 20, 2026)
- KXNP-26OCTPIF-345000: NO (Oct 20, 2026)
- KXNP-26OCTPIF-340000: NO (Oct 20, 2026)
- KXNP-26OCTPIF-335000: YES (Oct 20, 2026)
- KXNP-26OCTPIF-330000: YES (Oct 20, 2026)