Verizon postpaid phone net additions in Q3
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Verizon postpaid net additions appear above 175 thousand, driven by reaffirming full-year guidance.
- Q2 performance of 184,000 additions supports a positive Q3 trend.
- T-Mobile's Q3 price increases may benefit Verizon's competitive position.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 325 thousand | 21.0% | 7.4% | Market higher by 13.6pp |
| Above 175 thousand | 80.0% | 83.0% | Model higher by 3.0pp |
| Above 200 thousand | 68.0% | 60.1% | Market higher by 7.9pp |
| Above 375 thousand | 5.0% | 4.3% | Market higher by 0.7pp |
| Above 400 thousand | 6.0% | 3.2% | Market higher by 2.8pp |
Current Context
Sources (6)
- 1Investor Calendar Events | About Verizonverizon.com
- 2Verizon Delivers Record 2Q26 Results as Strategic Transformation Ignitesverizon.com
- 3Verizon (VZ) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 4Verizon reports Q2 total postpaid phone net additions of 184,000 | Markets Insidermarkets.businessinsider.com
- 5Verizon (VZ) Earnings Date & Reportinvesting.com
- 6https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/mx:vz/earnings/q2-2026-reporttipranks.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 175 thousand
📈 July 29, 2026: 34.0pp spike
Price increased from 51.0% to 85.0%
Outcome: Above 225 thousand
📈 July 28, 2026: 63.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 63.0%
Sources (7)
- 1Verizon Q2 2026 earnings: subscriber growth beats estimatesqz.com
- 2Verizon Q2 2026 earnings: subscriber growth beats...finance.yahoo.com
- 3Verizon reports Q2 total postpaid phone net additions of 184,000 | Markets Insidermarkets.businessinsider.com
- 4Verizon Delivers Record 2Q26 Results as Strategic Transformation Ignitesverizon.com
- 5Verizon Q2 2026: Fiber Broadband Reaches 10.9 mn as Broadband Adds Hit 348,000, Mobility Revenue Grows - TelecomLeadtelecomlead.com
- 6Verizon Stock Pulls Back: Record Margins and Google Dark Fiber Deal Signal New Eratechtimes.com
- 7Documentsec.gov
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For a "YES" resolution, Verizon's Q3 postpaid phone net additions must be greater than the specified threshold (e.g., above 200,000). A "NO" resolution occurs if the net additions are at or below the specified threshold. The market for this contract ends on October 20 at 4:00 PM EDT.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 150 thousand | $0.99 | $0.07 | 97% |
| Above 175 thousand | $0.91 | $0.17 | 80% |
| Above 200 thousand | $0.82 | $0.25 | 68% |
| Above 225 thousand | $0.69 | $0.37 | 54% |
| Above 250 thousand | $0.55 | $0.50 | 44% |
| Above 275 thousand | $0.43 | $0.60 | 32% |
| Above 300 thousand | $0.32 | $0.70 | 25% |
| Above 325 thousand | $0.89 | $0.78 | 21% |
| Above 400 thousand | $0.09 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Above 375 thousand | $0.11 | $0.94 | 5% |
| Above 350 thousand | $0.16 | $0.87 | 3% |
Market Discussion
Verizon announced 184,000 postpaid phone net additions for Q2 2026, surpassing analyst expectations, and maintains its fiscal year 2026 outlook for total retail postpaid phone net additions in the upper half of the 750,000 to 1.0 million range [1][2][3]. While specific Q3 2026 postpaid phone net additions are not detailed, the company forecasts Q3 2026 mobility and broadband service revenue growth to approach 3.0% [1][2][4], attributing subscriber growth to operational discipline and lower customer churn [5][6].
Sources (6)
- 1Documentsec.gov
- 2Verizon Delivers Record 2Q26 Results as Strategic Transformation Ignitesverizon.com
- 3Verizon (VZ) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 4https://finance.biggo.com/quote/VZ/earnings-call/US_VZ_2026-07-24finance.biggo.com
- 5VZ Q2 Earnings Call Signals Faster Growth From Churn Gains — TradingView Newstradingview.com
- 6Verizon Q2 2026 earnings: subscriber growth beats estimatesqz.com
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. Based on network performance reports from Q2 and Q3 2026, how does Verizon's 5G network quality stack up against T-Mobile and AT&T?
| T-Mobile Median 5G Download Speed (H1 2026) | 314.38 Mbps [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Verizon 5G Network Speed Ranking (H1 2026) | Second [1][2][3][4][5] |
| Verizon Lead (H1 2026) | Mobile coverage and consistency [1][2] |
Sources (5)
- 1United States Speedtest Connectivity Report H1 2026 | Ookla®ookla.com
- 2RootMetrics® US State of the Mobile Union report 1H 2026ookla.com
- 3United States, July 2026, Mobile Network Experience Report | Opensignalinsights.opensignal.com
- 4T-Mobile vs Verizon vs AT&T: Millions of speed and availability tests yield one big H1 2026 winner - PhoneArenaphonearena.com
- 5T-Mobile, Verizon or AT&T? New study reveals best mobile carrier - ranks internet providers, too | ZDNETzdnet.com
7. What major promotional offers or pricing strategy changes have Verizon and its key competitors, AT&T and T-Mobile, implemented during Q3 2026?
| T-Mobile Voice Line Price Increase | $6/month (July 13, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Verizon Simplicity Plan Price | $45/month, or $30/month for switchers (June 2026) [1][2] |
| AT&T Legacy Plan Price Increase | $10-$20/month (starting April 2026) [3][1] |
Sources (9)
- 1T-Mobile Abandoned Written Rate Promises for Millions: What Customers Can Dotechtimes.com
- 2Verizon Launches Simplicity: Here's How to Get Its Best 5G Network for $30/Month | WhistleOutwhistleout.com
- 3AT&T's Unlimited Phone Plans Changed in 2026. Here's What You Get for Your Money - CNETcnet.com
- 4www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 5www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
- 6www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 7www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
- 8www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
- 9www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
8. What has been Verizon's historical trend for postpaid phone net additions in the third quarter over the past five years (2021-2025)?
| 2021 Postpaid Phone Net Additions | 429,000 [1] |
|---|---|
| 2022 Postpaid Phone Net Additions | 8,000 [2][3][4] |
| 2025 Postpaid Phone Net Additions | 44,000 [5][6][7] |
Sources (7)
- 1Documentsec.gov
- 2https://www.verizon.com/about/file/73261/download?token=M7EGzvuMverizon.com
- 3https://www.verizon.com/about/file/68517/download?token=OvH6rGKxverizon.com
- 4Verizon reports 3Q results marked by revenue growth momentumnewswire.telecomramblings.com
- 5Verizon Reports Q3 2025 Growth in Revenue, Subscribers, and Broadband; Focuses on Strategic Transformation and Cost Efficiency - TelecomLeadtelecomlead.com
- 6Verizon Reports 3Q 2025 Earnings; Reiterates Full-Year...verizon.com
- 7Verizon 3Q 2025 Press Releaseverizon.com
9. What is the Wall Street consensus estimate for Verizon's postpaid phone net additions for Q3 2026?
| Verizon Q3 2026 Postpaid Phone Net Additions Estimate | No specific Wall Street consensus estimate (As of July 29, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Verizon Full-Year 2026 Guidance (Retail Postpaid Phone Net Additions) | Upper half of 750,000 to 1 million [1][2][3] |
| Verizon Q2 2026 Postpaid Phone Net Additions | 184,000 (Reported July 24, 2026) [1][2][3] |
Sources (4)
- 1Verizon Delivers Record 2Q26 Results as Strategic Transformation Ignitesverizon.com
- 2Verizon (VZ) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 3Verizon Communications Inc. (BAC.DE) Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - July 24, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
- 4Will Verizon Communications (VZ) beat quarterly earnings? Trading Odds & Predictions (Jul. 24, 2026) | Polymarketpolymarket.copilot.markets
10. How did Verizon's postpaid phone net additions in Q2 2026 compare to those of AT&T and T-Mobile, and what does this suggest for their competitive positioning entering Q3?
| Verizon Postpaid Phone Net Adds (Q2 2026) | 184,000 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| AT&T Postpaid Phone Net Adds (Q2 2026) | 432,000 [4][5][6] |
| T-Mobile Postpaid Account Net Adds (Q2 2026) | 277,000 [7][8] |
Sources (14)
- 1Verizon Delivers Record 2Q26 Results as Strategic...verizon.com
- 22026 Q2 Financial & Operating Informationverizon.com
- 3Documentsec.gov
- 4AT&T Delivers Strong Second-Quarter Resultsabout.att.com
- 52Q2026investors.att.com
- 6AT&T beats Q2 expectations with 432K phone net addsfierce-network.com
- 7T-Mobile touts hot growth runway as Q2 account additions...fierce-network.com
- 8T-Mobile Delivers Continued Strong Account Growth, Translating into Industry-Leading Service Revenue Growth Driven by Widening Differentiationbarchart.com
- 9www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
- 10www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
- 11seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
- 12www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 13www.marketbeat.comOctagon Agentmarketbeat.com
- 14nypost.comOctagon Agent
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: February 17, 2027
- Closes: February 17, 2027
Sources (8)
- 1https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/mx:vz/earnings/q2-2026-reporttipranks.com
- 2Verizon Communications earnings dates,Verizon Communications earnings estimates – RTTNews.comrttnews.com
- 32026-27 National Football League important datesnfl.com
- 4Verizon Delivers Record 2Q26 Results as Strategic Transformation Ignitesverizon.com
- 5Verizon lifts guidance after Q2 2026 profit beatinvesting.com
- 6VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS (VZ.MX) Q2 FY2026...finance.yahoo.com
- 7Documentsec.gov
- 8https://finance.biggo.com/quote/VZ/earnings-call/US_VZ_2026-07-24finance.biggo.com