Ferrari shipments in Q1 2027
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Shipments are likely above 3300 units, with Ferrari's 2027 order book fully covered.
- Exceeding 3450 units is probable, driven by Luce EV production starting in Q1.
- Above 3600 units appears more probable given strong demand and new models.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3300 | 99.0% | 99.0% | Ferrari's fully allocated 2027 order book and robust demand indicate strong Q1 2027 shipments. |
| Above 3200 | 0.0% | 99.0% | Ferrari's fully allocated 2027 order book and robust demand indicate strong Q1 2027 shipments. |
| Above 3350 | 0.0% | 12.0% | Ferrari's fully allocated 2027 order book and robust demand indicate strong Q1 2027 shipments. |
| Above 3400 | 0.0% | 12.0% | Q1 2027 shipments are likely to meet or exceed Q1 2026 levels due to fully covered 2027 orders. |
| Above 3450 | 0.0% | 12.0% | Strong demand and new model launches like the 12Cilindri Manuale are likely to exceed Q1 2026 baseline. |
Current Context
Sources (28)
- 1Ferrari shipments next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 2Ferrari shipments in Q1 2027 Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 3When will Ferrari deliver the Ferrari Luce: Odds & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com
- 4Documentsec.gov
- 5Documentsec.gov
- 6Ferrari is sold out through 2027, because it decided to beautonext.co
- 7Ferrari's Order Book Is Full Through 2027 — and Business Has Never Been Better Despite Luca Difficulty - MotorBiscuitmotorbiscuit.com
- 8Ferrari Sold Out Through 2027 on Record Demand & Profitsthedailyupdate.co
- 9EarningsCall · RACE Q2 2026earningscall.biz
- 10Ferrari Q2 Earnings Call Highlights | Longbridgelongbridge.com
- 11Ferrari N.V. Reports Q2 2026 Earnings, Beats Estimates, Raises Full‑Year Guidance - RACE News - EveryTickereveryticker.com
- 12Ferrari is sold out through 2027recombu.com
- 13Ferrari's Luce EV Sold Out for 2027 as Q3 Profit Rises — Ava Advisorava.fund
- 14Ferrari Says 2027 Luce EV Output Fully Allocated, First Cars Due This Yeareletric-vehicles.com
- 15Ferrari's New Luce Is Already Sold Out for 2027 — Before Customer Test Drives Beginbenzinga.com
- 16Ferrari Sold Zero More Cars. So Why Is EMEA Up €178M?internpierre.substack.com
- 17Ferrari Luce EV sells out as brand confirms Australian orders, arrival timing | CarExpertcarexpert.com.au
- 18Ferrari Luce EV Set for Australian Deliveries in Late 2027 - WhoWatchWearwhowatchwear.com
- 19Ferrari Luce Allocated for 2027: What Q3 Results Really Show — CARINDUSTcarindust.com
- 20Ferrari NV (RACE) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and Analyst Predictionsadvfn.com
- 21RACE | Ferrari N.V. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatchmarketwatch.com
- 22Ferrari N.V. (RACE) analyst ratings, estimates and forecasts – Yahoo Financeau.finance.yahoo.com
- 23Ferrari N.V. (RACE) analyst ratings, estimates and forecasts – Yahoo Financeuk.finance.yahoo.com
- 24Ferrari lifts profit outlook as AI wealth boosts demandcnaluxury.channelnewsasia.com
- 25Ferrari (RACE) Q3 2026 Earnings Report - Results, Call &...tipranks.com
- 262026 Corporate Calendarferrari.com
- 27FERRARI TO ANNOUNCE FIRST QUARTER 2026 FINANCIAL RESULTS ONglobenewswire.com
- 28Ferrari N.V.: Company Events Publications and Financial Calendar | RACE | NL0011585146 | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if Ferrari's total shipments for the next quarter exceed the specific numerical threshold indicated for a given contract, and NO if they do not. Trading for this market concludes on May 4, 6:00 AM EDT, with maximum payouts scheduled for September 1, 2027. Note that weekly exchange maintenance pauses trading from 3-5 AM ET.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3300 | $0.99 | $0.91 | 99% |
| Above 3200 | $0.99 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Above 3350 | $0.99 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Above 3400 | $0.99 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Above 3450 | $0.99 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Above 3500 | $0.99 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Above 3600 | $0.99 | $0.99 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Ferrari's order book is confirmed to cover all of 2027, with annual production capped at approximately 14,000 cars, and the new Luce EV's entire 2027 production run (approximately 500 units) is already sold out [1][2][3]. While some analysts forecast above-consensus revenue acceleration for 2027 driven by new model launches [4], others anticipate that average selling prices will rise due to a richer model lineup even if deliveries dip from tough comparisons [5]; prediction markets currently price Q1 2027 shipments with a 50% probability of exceeding 3,200 units and 54% for exceeding 3,300 units, compared to Q1 2026 actual shipments of 3,436 units [6][7][8].
Sources (8)
- 1Ferrari is sold out through 2027, because it decided to beautonext.co
- 2Ferrari's Jony Ive-designed model was mocked by the web, but it's selling like hotcakes | DN - DAILY NEWSdailynews.us
- 3Ferrari’s controversial Luce EV is sold out for 2027 | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com
- 4Wolfe Research starts Ferrari at Outperform, sees ’solid upside potential’ By Investing.comuk.investing.com
- 5Wall Street Thinks Ferrari’s 2027 Setup Still Looks Strong - Finimizefinimize.com
- 6Ferrari shipments in Q1 2027 Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 7Ferrari shipments next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 8Ferrari (RACE) Stock Slides After Q1 Earnings Beat as Middle East War Hits Shipmentscoincentral.com
4. What are the current Q1 2027 shipment forecasts for Ferrari from leading automotive analysts at firms like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America?
| Q1 2027 Shipment Prediction | 3,300-3,500 units (Kalshi, Nov 4, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| 2027 Order Book Status | Fully allocated through all of 2027 (CEO, Q2 2026) [2] |
| Q1 2026 Shipments | 3,436 units [3] |
Sources (5)
- 1Ferrari shipments in Q1 2027 Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 2Ferrari is sold out through 2027, because it decided to beautonext.co
- 3Ferrari beats Q1 earnings expectations ahead of EV debutcbtnews.com
- 4Ferrari lifts forecasts after outperformance, Luce EV...reuters.com
- 5Ferrari Shares Rally After Morgan Stanley Upgrade on...investorshub.advfn.com
5. How will the initial production ramp-up of the Ferrari Luce EV, with first deliveries expected in late 2026, impact the total shipment volume in Q1 2027?
| Luce EV Production Ramp-up | Q1 2027 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| 2027 Luce Units Allocation | Fully allocated as of Q3 2026 earnings call [1][3] |
| Q1 2027 Total Shipment Forecast | Low-to-mid 3,300s (Kalshi prediction as of November 4, 2026) [4][5][6] |
Sources (8)
- 1Ferrari Sold Zero More Cars. So Why Is EMEA Up €178M?internpierre.substack.com
- 2Earnings call transcript: Ferrari beats Q2 2026 forecasts...investing.com
- 3Ferrari NV (RACE) Earnings Call Transcriptsroic.ai
- 4Ferrari shipments in Q1 2027 Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 5Ferrari shares fall as it sticks to guidance ahead of first EV...auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com
- 6Ferrari beats Q1 earnings expectations ahead of EV debutcbtnews.com
- 7Ferrari (RACE) Defends 39.1% EBITDA Margin and Confirms...news.alphastreet.com
- 8Why Ferrari's First Electric Car Sold For Forty Million Dollarsgadgetsnow.indiatimes.com
6. How does Ferrari's planned product mix for Q1 2027, especially the allocation for special series models, compare to the actual mix shipped in Q1 2026?
| Q1 2026 Special Series Mix | 11% [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Total Shipments | 3,436 units [1][2][3][4] |
| Q1 2026 EBIT | €548 million (29.7% margin) [1][5][2][4] |
Sources (7)
- 1ANOTHER QUARTER OF STRONG MIX. 2026 GUIDANCE...ferrari.com
- 2Ferrari Q1 2026 presentation shows strong mix, guidance...investing.com
- 3Ferrari: The Scarcity Business = 3,436 Cars, €1.85... - LongYieldlongyield.substack.com
- 4ANOTHER QUARTER OF STRONG MIX 2026 GUIDANCE...ferrari.com
- 5Ferrari (RACE) Defends 39.1% EBITDA Margin and Confirms...news.alphastreet.com
- 6Ferrari confirms full-year guidance as order book extends...seekingalpha.com
- 7Ferrari's New Luce Is Already Sold Out for 2027finance.yahoo.com
7. What is the scheduled release date for Ferrari's Q4 2026 earnings report, and what type of forward-looking guidance on 2027 shipments is typically included?
| Earnings Report Date | February 9, 2027 [1] |
|---|---|
| Typical Guidance | Order book coverage, personalization rate, product mix, currency assumptions (does not include specific numerical shipment targets) [2][3][4] |
| 2027 Order Book Coverage | Entirely covers 2027 deliveries, all 2027 Luce allocations sold [2][3][4] |
Sources (5)
- 1Latest Report, Earnings Call & Financials - Ferraripublic.com
- 2Earnings call transcript: Ferrari tops Q3 2026 forecasts and...investing.com
- 3Ferrari Q2 2026 Results Press Releaseferrari.com
- 4Ferrari lifts earnings guidance, backs demand for debut EVreuters.com
- 5Ferrari 2026 earnings and AGM calendar | RACE Stock Newsstocktitan.net
8. What are the primary production or supply chain risks Ferrari has acknowledged for 2027 that could cause Q1 shipments to fall below the 3,300-3,400 unit range?
| Q1 2027 Shipment Risk | Potentially below 3,300-3,400 units [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| New Car Launches | Average of 4 per year (2026-2030) [6] |
| Ferrari Luce EV Delivery | Begins late 2026, sold out for 2027 [2][5][6] |
Sources (6)
- 1Investment analysis of Ferrari | Turlov Family Office Securitiestrade.tfos.com
- 2Ferrari (RACE) Shares Show +3.7% Gain in Recent Reboundtickeron.com
- 3Ferrari Sidesteps Middle East Turmoil With Smart Logistics, Posts...finance.biggo.com
- 4Ferrari's Order Book Is Full Through 2027 | Brian Pia posted on...linkedin.com
- 5Ferrari says Luce EV sold out for 2027, expects demand to...reuters.com
- 6Ferrari Capital Markets Day 2030 Strategic planferrari.com
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 01, 2027
- Closes: September 01, 2027
Sources (14)
- 1Ferrari is sold out through 2027, because it decided to beautonext.co
- 2Ferrari Q2 Earnings Call Highlights | Longbridgelongbridge.com
- 3UBS Upbeat on Ferrari Sales Growth in FY27 Amid Strong Momentumwebull.com
- 4BofA Confident in 'Strong FY27 for Ferrari; Price Objective, Estimates Revisedwebull.com
- 5Ferrari Q3 Earnings Call Highlights — RACE +1.00 · News Impact Screenernewsimpactscreener.com
- 6Bank of America raises Ferrari target on manual V12 launchscanx.trade
- 7Ferrari Hits Luce EV 2026 Sales Target Two Months After Launch: Reporteletric-vehicles.com
- 8Ferrari Can Sell Fewer Cars and Still Beat, Goldman Saysfinance.yahoo.com
- 9Ferrari earnings analysis: questions answered and next catalysts By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 10RACE | Ferrari N.V. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatchmarketwatch.com
- 11Ferrari N.V.: Company Events Publications and Financial Calendar | RACE | NL0011585146 | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 12Ferrari shipments in Q1 2027 Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 13Ferrari in the spotlight: Can pricing power offset volume slide? By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 14Ferrari's Luce Debut: A €500,000 Cash-Flow Problem at 35 Times Earningsainvest.com
11. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 16 markets in this series
Outcomes: 6 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXRACE-26NOVSHIP-3600: NO (Nov 03, 2026)
- KXRACE-26NOVSHIP-3575: NO (Nov 03, 2026)
- KXRACE-26NOVSHIP-3550: NO (Nov 03, 2026)
- KXRACE-26NOVSHIP-3525: NO (Nov 03, 2026)
- KXRACE-26NOVSHIP-3500: NO (Nov 03, 2026)