Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing for Natera processing "Above 4.2 million" tests in fiscal 2026, with a 20.0% model probability versus 0.0% market probability. This suggests the market may not fully account for the company's strong Q1 and Q2 2026 test volumes totaling over 2.05 million tests, an upward trend that led to raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This contract's price action is defined by a single, sharp upward movement on August 13, 2026. The probability gapped from a starting price of 1.0% to 15.0% in one day, where it has remained. This 14-point repricing was a direct reaction to Natera's Q2 2026 earnings report, released on August 6. The company announced record test volumes of approximately 1.04 million for the quarter, bringing its first-half total to over two million tests processed. Natera also raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance, providing a clear fundamental catalyst for the price increase.
The most critical technical feature is the complete absence of trading volume. With zero contracts traded, the price movement does not reflect active, two-sided market flow. It is more likely the result of a market maker repricing the contract based on the new fundamental data from the earnings release. The lack of participation means there is no demonstrated market conviction behind the 15.0% price level.
As a result, there are no technically validated support or resistance levels. The 1.0% opening price serves as an initial floor, and the current 15.0% level is the effective ceiling, but neither has been tested by trading activity. While the price jump indicates a significantly higher perceived probability of the outcome following the strong Q2 report, the zero-volume condition shows this sentiment has not yet been confirmed by actual market consensus or capital allocation.
  • Natera likely processed above 4.2 million tests, given over 2.05 million in H1 2026.
  • Exceeding 4.2 million is supported by consistent test volume growth through Q2 2026.
  • Expected moderate international volume growth from recent approvals aids above 4.2 million.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 4.2 million 79.0% 20.0% Market higher by 59.0pp
Above 4.25 million 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp
Above 4.3 million 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp
Above 4.35 million 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp
Above 4.4 million 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp

Current Context

Natera processed over two million tests in the first half of 2026. The company processed approximately 2,057,500 tests across Q1 (1,013,600) and Q2 (1,043,900) of fiscal 2026 [1][2][3]. Natera reported Q2 2026 total revenue of $752.8 million, representing a 37.7% increase year-over-year [1][3][4]. The firm also raised its 2026 annual revenue guidance by $100 million at the midpoint, now targeting $2.85 billion to $2.91 billion for the year [1][3][4].
Natera projects strong 2026 gross margins alongside R&D and SG&A. For 2026, Natera forecasts gross margins between 64% and 66% and maintains a positive cash flow outlook [4][5][6]. Estimated SG&A expenses range from $1.125 billion to $1.225 billion, with R&D costs projected at $800 million to $900 million [4][5][6]. Recent operational milestones include July 2026 IVDR certification for Signatera in Europe, June 2026 PMDA approval of Signatera for colorectal cancer in Japan, and a Medicare local coverage determination for transplant surveillance effective August 30, 2026 [7][8][9]. Natera expects to complete enrollment in its pivotal FIND study in Q3 2026, with results anticipated in 2027 [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
  2. 2Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
  3. 3Natera posts $753M Q2 2026 revenue, narrows lossstocktitan.net
  4. 4Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Nateranatera.com
  5. 5https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-8-7-natera-inc-stock/marketbeat.com
  6. 6Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.wedbush.com
  7. 7Natera to Support New Clinical Trial Assessing ctDNA Dynamics with Latitude™ in Advanced Skin Cancers | Nateranatera.com
  8. 8Natera Submits Signatera™ to Japan’s PMDA for Approval as a Companion Diagnostic in Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer - BioSpacebiospace.com
  9. 9Natera Q2 Earnings Call Highlights - BBNSbaseballnewssource.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 13, 2026: 14.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 15.0%

Outcome: Above 4.2 million

What happened: The primary driver for the 14.0 percentage point spike on August 13, 2026, was Natera's Q2 2026 earnings report on August 6, 2026 [1][2][3]. The company announced record test volumes, processing approximately 1.04 million tests in Q2, and raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance [1][4][5]. This positive news, preceding the prediction market spike by several days, increased confidence in Natera reaching "Above 4.2 million" tests in fiscal 2026 [1][4][5]. No relevant social media activity from key figures or viral narratives was identified that would have directly caused this specific market movement on August 13, indicating social media was largely irrelevant in this instance.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
  2. 2Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Nateranatera.com
  3. 3https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-8-7-natera-inc-stock/marketbeat.com
  4. 4Natera (NTRA) Is Up 20.3% After Shelf Filing And Higher 2026 Guidance Has The Bull Case Changed?finance.yahoo.com
  5. 5Natera (NTRA) Is Up 20.3% After Raising 2026 Guidance And Expanding Signatera’s Oncology Reach - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A "YES" resolution for a contract (e.g., "Above 4.2 million") is triggered if the total number of Natera tests processed in fiscal year 2026 exceeds the specified numerical threshold. Conversely, a "NO" resolution is triggered if the total number of Natera tests processed is at or below that threshold. Trading for this market ends on February 26, 4:00 PM EST, with the maximum payout date set for May 27, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 4.2 million $0.80 $0.29 79%
Above 4.25 million $0.55 $0.54 0%
Above 4.3 million $0.30 $0.79 0%
Above 4.35 million $0.14 $0.95 0%
Above 4.4 million $0.07 $0.98 0%

Market Discussion

Natera processed approximately 1,043,900 tests in the second quarter of 2026, marking a 22.4% increase from 853,100 tests in the second quarter of 2025 [1][2][3]. The company raised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $2.85 billion to $2.91 billion, with market sentiment reportedly bullish due to revenue beats and record oncology test volumes [4][5][6][7][8][9][10].

Sources (10)
  1. 1Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
  2. 2Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Nateranatera.com
  3. 3Natera posts $753M Q2 2026 revenue, narrows lossstocktitan.net
  4. 499.1sec.gov
  5. 5Natera Stock Hits 52-Week High - Here's Why - Natera (NASDAQ:NTRA) - Benzingabenzinga.com
  6. 6Natera (NTRA) Earnings Report Q2 2026 | Beat, EPS & Revenue | 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
  7. 7NTRA Stock Surges After Big Earnings Beat And Guidance Hike - StocksToTradestockstotrade.com
  8. 8Natera Stock Jumps as Q2 Beat Triggers Major Target Hikestimothysykes.com
  9. 9NTRA Soars As Natera Beats Q2 And Lifts 2026 Outlooktimothysykes.com
  10. 10Natera Stock Surges After Q2 Earnings Beat And Guidance Hike - StocksToTradestockstotrade.com

5. Based on Natera's performance in the first half of 2026, what quarterly growth rate is required in H2 to exceed 4.3 million total tests?

Tests processed in H1 20262,057,500 tests [1][2]
Additional tests needed in H2 20262,242,500 tests [1]
Required quarterly growth rate7.4% over Q2 2026 volume [1]
Natera's H1 2026 test volume was 2.06 million. In the first half of 2026, Natera processed a total of 2,057,500 tests [1]. This volume comprised 1,013,600 tests in the first quarter and 1,043,900 tests in the second quarter of 2026 [1][2]. To achieve its full-year objective of 4.3 million total tests in 2026, the company must process an additional 2,242,500 tests during the second half of the year [1].
Meeting H2 targets requires significant quarterly growth. To meet the goal of 2,242,500 tests in the second half of 2026, Natera needs to process an average of 1,121,250 tests per quarter in Q3 and Q4 [1]. This target necessitates a quarterly growth rate of approximately 7.4% when compared to the Q2 2026 test volume [1].
Sources (2)
  1. 1Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
  2. 2Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com

6. What impact will recent regulatory approvals in Europe (IVDR) and Japan (PMDA) have on Natera's international test volumes in H2 2026?

EU IVDR Class C CertificationJuly 2026 [1][2][3]
Japan PMDA ApprovalJune 2026 [4][5][6]
Q2 2026 Tests Processed1,043,900 [7][8][9]
Natera expects moderate international volume growth from recent approvals. Natera’s recent regulatory approvals for Signatera in Europe and Japan are not anticipated to cause immediate, substantial increases in international test volumes during the second half of 2026. The company has explicitly conveyed expectations for moderate volume growth, rather than rapid boosts, from these international regulatory milestones [7][8][9].
Key approvals establish regulatory foundation and market entry for Signatera. In Europe, Natera secured EU IVDR Class C certification for its Signatera assay in July 2026, which is crucial for long-term regulatory compliance for clinical use and trial execution across the region [1][2][3]. This certification serves as essential infrastructure, not a significant short-term driver for volume surges in H2 2026 [1][2][3]. Concurrently, Japan granted PMDA approval for Signatera in colorectal cancer in June 2026, making it the nation's first PMDA-approved MRD test [4][5][6]. Natera plans a commercial launch in Japan by the end of 2026, pending final pricing and reimbursement agreements [4][5][6].
Overall strong performance stems from oncology, despite modest international outlook. Despite tempered expectations for international growth linked to these new approvals, Natera demonstrated robust overall performance in Q2 2026, processing 1,043,900 tests. The company also elevated its annual revenue guidance to a range of $2.85 billion to $2.91 billion, primarily attributing this increase to growth within its oncology segment, particularly clinical MRD [7][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Natera Announces IVDR Certification for Signatera™ Across Multiple Cancers | Nateranatera.com
  2. 2Natera Announces IVDR Certification for Signatera...investor.natera.com
  3. 3Natera Announces IVDR Certification for Signatera™ Across Multiple Cancers - BioSpacebiospace.com
  4. 4Natera Nabs Japanese Approval for Colorectal Cancer MRD Blood Test, Sets Sights on Other Indications | GenomeWebgenomeweb.com
  5. 5Signatera™ Receives Regulatory Approval in Japan for...natera.com
  6. 6First PMDA-approved molecular residual disease (MRD)...biospectrumasia.com
  7. 7Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
  8. 8Natera: Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  9. 9Natera posts $753M Q2 2026 revenue, narrows loss | NTRA 8-K Filingstocktitan.net

7. How does Natera's test volume growth in H1 2026 compare to that of its key competitors, such as Guardant Health and Invitae?

Natera H1 2026 Total Tests2,057,500 total tests (H1 2026) [1][2]
Invitae StatusAcquired by Labcorp (August 2024) [3][4][5]
Guardant Health Q2 2026 Oncology Test Growth63% year-over-year (Q2 2026) [6][7]
Natera demonstrated strong H1 2026 test volume growth, totaling over two million processed tests. The company processed approximately 2,057,500 total tests in the first half of 2026, comprising 1,013,600 in Q1 and 1,043,900 in Q2 [1][2]. This performance indicates strong year-over-year growth for Natera [1][2]. However, a direct and comprehensive comparison of Natera's H1 2026 total test volume growth against its key competitors is challenging due to the disparate reporting methods and company statuses [6][7].
Competitors present varied statuses, complicating direct comparison of test volumes. Invitae, previously considered a key competitor, is no longer a public or standalone entity, having been acquired by Labcorp in August 2024 following Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings [3][4][5]. Guardant Health reported significant growth in its oncology test volume, which increased by 63% year-over-year for Q2 2026, driven by its oncology and screening business [6][7]. Despite this strong performance, Guardant Health does not publicly provide a single total test volume figure that is directly comparable to Natera's processed tests, thus limiting a comprehensive comparison of total test volume growth [6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Nateranatera.com
  2. 2Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
  3. 3Invitae: NVTA Stock and $239M Labcorp Saleelevenflo.com
  4. 4Invitae 2026 Company Profile: Valuation, Investors...pitchbook.com
  5. 5Invitae (NVTAQ) Company Profile & Descriptionstockanalysis.com
  6. 6Guardant Health Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases 2026 Revenue Guidance | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  7. 7Guardant Health (Nasdaq: GH) boosts 2026 forecast after 44% Q2 revenue growthstocktitan.net

8. What is the historical trend of Natera's quarterly test processing volume from 2024 through Q2 2026?

Total Tests Processed FY 20243,064,600 tests (FY 2024) [1][2]
Total Tests Processed FY 20253,525,500 tests (FY 2025) [1][2]
Tests Processed Q2 20261,043,900 tests (Q2 2026) [3][2][1][4][5]
Natera's test processing volume grew consistently from 2024 to Q2 2026. The company demonstrated a consistent upward trajectory in its test processing volumes throughout this period. In fiscal year 2024, Natera processed a total of 3,064,600 tests, which subsequently rose to 3,525,500 tests in fiscal year 2025 [1][2].
Quarterly volumes in 2024 and 2025 showed steady increases. For 2024, test volumes increased from approximately 730,000 in the first quarter to 792,800 in the fourth quarter [3][2][1][4][5]. This growth extended into 2025, with first quarter volumes reaching 855,100 tests processed, and fourth quarter volumes climbing to 923,600 tests [3][2][1][4][5].
The upward trend extended into 2026 with continued growth. Natera's processing volume in the first quarter of 2026 reached 1,013,600 tests, further increasing to 1,043,900 tests in the second quarter of 2026 [3][2][1][4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Natera Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results | Nateranatera.com
  2. 2Natera Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results | Nateranatera.com
  3. 3Natera Reports Second Quarter 2024 Financial Resultsinvestor.wedbush.com
  4. 4Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
  5. 5Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Nateranatera.com

9. What do recent analyst estimates and Natera's own revised 2026 guidance imply for total annual test volume?

2026 Full-Year Revenue Guidance$2.85 billion to $2.91 billion (August 2026) [1][2][3]
Q2 2026 Tests ProcessedApproximately 1.044 million [1][4][5]
Q2 2026 Oncology Test Volume Growth57.2% year-over-year [4][5]
Natera raised its 2026 full-year revenue guidance significantly. As of August 2026, the company increased its forecast to a range of $2.85 billion to $2.91 billion [1][2][3]. This updated projection follows a robust second quarter in 2026, during which Natera processed approximately 1.044 million tests. This marked the second consecutive quarter the company surpassed 1 million tests processed [1][4][5].
Growth in revenue stems from increased volumes and pricing. The primary drivers for this expansion are a combination of higher total test volumes and improvements in average selling prices. A key contributor to this growth was Natera's oncology business, which experienced a substantial 57.2% year-over-year increase in test volumes during Q2 2026 [4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Nateranatera.com
  2. 2Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
  3. 3Natera posts $753M Q2 2026 revenue, narrows lossstocktitan.net
  4. 4Natera Q2 Earnings Call Highlights - The Cerbat Gemthecerbatgem.com
  5. 5Natera (NTRA) Earnings Report Q2 2026 | Beat, EPS & Revenue | 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Natera processed approximately 1,013,600 tests in Q1 2026 and approximately 985,500 total reported units in Q2 2026, contributing to about 1.999 million tests year-to-date through Q2 2026 [1][2]. The company increased its fiscal 2026 full-year revenue guidance to $2.85 billion –$2.91 billion, from an earlier range of $2.74 billion–$2.82 billion, while upholding expectations for 64%–66% gross margins and positive cash flow [3][4][5]. This growth was primarily driven by commercial expansion of Signatera, Panorama, and Horizon, with oncology test volume reaching approximately 296,700 units in Q2 2026, up from approximately 188,800 in the prior-year quarter [1][2].
Bullish catalysts include a NCCN Category 1 recommendation for Signatera in bladder cancer, expanded Medicare/MolDx coverage, and international expansion, particularly in Japan [6]. Improving operating leverage is also a potential positive driver [6]. Conversely, bearish risks involve sustained net losses, substantial fixed and research and development costs, and persistent regulatory and reimbursement pressures [6]. Full fiscal 2026 trend visibility is limited as Q3 and Q4 2026 data are not yet available [1][2].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 27, 2027
  • Closes: May 27, 2027
Sources (6)
  1. 1Natera, Inc. (10-Q) - 2026-Q2, Page: 40Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  2. 2Natera, Inc. (10-Q) - 2026-Q2, Page: 36Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  3. 3Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
  4. 4Natera posts $753M Q2 2026 revenue, narrows loss | NTRA 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  5. 5Natera Q2 Loss Narrows As Revenue Jumps; Raises FY26 Revenue Outlookrttnews.com
  6. 6Natera earnings on deck: Can reimbursement gains fuel growth? By Investing.comng.investing.com