Natera tests processed in Q1 2027
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Above 1.2 million test volume is projected from Q1 2025-2026 year-over-year growth.
- Signatera's strong oncology growth and potential Japan launch may drive higher volumes.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.05 million | 0.0% | 20.0% | Natera's consistent growth, oncology momentum, Japan launch, and analyst forecasts suggest higher Q1 2027 test volumes. |
| Above 1.2 million | 0.0% | 20.0% | Natera's consistent growth, oncology momentum, Japan launch, and analyst forecasts suggest higher Q1 2027 test volumes. |
| Above 1.25 million | 0.0% | 20.0% | Natera's consistent growth, oncology momentum, Japan launch, and analyst forecasts suggest higher Q1 2027 test volumes. |
| Above 1.3 million | 0.0% | 15.0% | Natera's consistent growth, oncology momentum, Japan launch, and analyst forecasts suggest higher Q1 2027 test volumes. |
| Above 1.35 million | 0.0% | 10.0% | Natera's consistent growth, oncology momentum, Japan launch, and analyst forecasts suggest higher Q1 2027 test volumes. |
Current Context
Sources (20)
- 1Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
- 2Natera (NTRA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 3Natera Misses On The Bottom Line, But A 13% Revenue Beat, Third Guidance Raise And $6B 2029 Target Dominate The Quarterfinviz.com
- 4Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
- 5Natera Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 6Natera Q1 2026 slides: revenue jumps 39%, guidance raised By Investing.comau.investing.com
- 7Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
- 8Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsfinance.yahoo.com
- 9Natera (NTRA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 10Natera (NTRA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 11Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
- 12Natera, Inc.: Company Events Publications and Financial Calendar | NTRA | US6323071042 | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 13NTRA Earnings Estimates for Natera Stock - Barchart.combarchart.com
- 14Natera tests processed next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 15Natera tests processed in Q3 Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 16Natera (NasdaqGS:NTRA) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions - Simply Wall Stsimplywall.st
- 17NTRA | Natera Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatchmarketwatch.com
- 18Natera, Inc. (NTRA) - Earnings Historyalphaquery.com
- 19Natera, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summaryfinance.yahoo.com
- 20NTRA - Natera Inc Earnings Reports, Summaries & Call Transcripts | Morningstarkessler-prod.reta52d8.eas.morningstar.com
2. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market series concerns the total number of Natera tests processed in the next quarter, with specific sub-markets such as "Above 1.05 million." For a market like "Above 1.05 million," a 'Yes' resolution would be triggered if Natera processes over 1.05 million tests, while a 'No' resolution occurs if 1.05 million or fewer tests are processed. The market is scheduled to end on May 6, 4:00 PM EDT, but the specific "Above 1.05 million" market is currently "Launching soon," meaning trading has not yet commenced.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.05 million | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 1.2 million | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 1.25 million | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 1.3 million | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 1.35 million | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 1.4 million | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Natera processed a record ~1,093,100 tests in Q3 2026, marking a 22.3% year-over-year increase, and raised its FY2026 revenue guidance while targeting $6 billion in revenue by 2029 [1]. For Q1 2027, a prediction market assigns less than 1% probability to test volumes exceeding 1.05 million [2], despite Natera's Clinical MRD units reaching 316,000 (+56% YoY) in Q3 2026 and Wall Street analysts projecting full-year 2027 revenue around $3.3 billion [1].
3. How might the late-2026 commercial launch of Signatera in Japan influence Natera's total processed test volume in Q1 2027?
| Signatera Japan CRC Approval | June 24, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 Total Tests Processed | 1,093,100 [2][3][4][5] |
| Japan Annual CRC Incidence | ~150,000 cases/year [6][7][8] |
Sources (14)
- 1Signatera™ Receives Regulatory Approval in Japan for Colorectal Cancer | Nateranatera.com
- 2Natera (NTRA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 3Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
- 4Natera Q1 2026 slides: revenue jumps 39%, guidance raised By Investing.comau.investing.com
- 5Natera, Inc. (NTRA) jumps 15% on strong Q2 results | TickerSparktickerspark.ai
- 6Natera (NTRA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 7NTRA Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary | Stock Taperstocktaper.com
- 8Natera earnings in focus as Japan expansion looms By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 9Natera tests processed in Q3 Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 10Natera Says Signatera Commercial Launch In Japan Expected In 1H 2027 — TradingView Newstradingview.com
- 11Signatera™ Receives Regulatory Approval in Japan as a Companion Diagnostic in Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer | MarketMinute1kttc.marketminute.com
- 12Why Is Natera (NTRA) Stock Soaring Todaybusiness.theeveningleader.com
- 13Natera Q1 Earnings Call Highlights — TradingView Newstradingview.com
- 14Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
4. What test volume for Q1 2027 is suggested by extrapolating Natera's year-over-year growth from Q1 2025 to Q1 2026?
| Estimated Q1 2027 Test Volume | 1,201,116 tests [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Test Volume | 1,013,600 tests [1][2][3] |
| Projected Full-Year 2027 Revenue | $3.3 billion to $3.64 billion [4][5] |
Sources (10)
- 1Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
- 2Natera Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 3Q1'2026 Earnings Presentations201.q4cdn.com
- 4Druckenmiller’s $613 Million Silent Bet Is Crushing Nvidia — and It’s Not a Tech Stock | NAI 500nai500.com
- 5Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
- 6Natera Reports First Quarter 2025 Financial Results | Nateranatera.com
- 7Natera, Inc._March 31, 2025sec.gov
- 8Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
- 9Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
- 10Natera CEO Says Company Is 'Clearly on a Roll' After Record Test Volumes, Raises Outlook — TradingView Newstradingview.com
5. How do the projected Q1 2027 growth rates for Natera's high-growth oncology segment (Signatera) compare to its more mature women's health segment?
| Signatera Q1 2027 Growth Rate | 50-60% YoY [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Women's Health Q1 2027 Growth Rate | 5-9% YoY [1][2][3][4][5] |
| Signatera Q1 2027 Projected Volumes | 350,000-370,000 units [1][2][6][7][8][9] |
Sources (13)
- 1Natera (NTRA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 2Natera (NTRA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 3Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Presents at Canaccord Genuity's 46th Annual Growth Conference Transcript | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
- 4Evercore Initiates Coverage of Natera With Outperform Rating | GenomeWebgenomeweb.com
- 5Natera (NTRA) FY 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 6Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
- 7Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsfinance.yahoo.com
- 8Natera: Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 9Natera, Inc.roic.ai
- 10Natera, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summaryfinance.yahoo.com
- 11Natera (NTRA) 2026 年第二季度财报电话会议实录|长桥证券longbridge.com
- 12Natera CEO Says Company Is 'Clearly on a Roll' After Record Test Volumes, Raises Outlook — TradingView Newstradingview.com
- 13Natera tests processed next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
6. What are the specific Q1 2027 test volume forecasts for Natera from key equity research firms like William Blair or those aggregated by Yahoo Finance?
| William Blair 2027 Revenue Estimate | $3,171 million [1] |
|---|---|
| Analyst Consensus 2027 Revenue | $3.33 billion [2][3] |
| Kalshi Q1 2027 Test Volume Expectation | Expected well above 1.05 million [4] |
Sources (17)
- 1Natera Inc Research Initiation | William Blairwilliamblair.com
- 2Natera Inc (NTRA) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and Analyst Predictionsadvfn.com
- 3Natera, Inc. (NTRA) analyst ratings, estimates and forecasts – Yahoo Financenz.finance.yahoo.com
- 4Natera tests processed next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 5Druckenmiller’s $613 Million Silent Bet Is Crushing Nvidia — and It’s Not a Tech Stock | NAI 500nai500.com
- 6Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
- 7Natera Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 8Natera (NTRA) Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Recap: A Record Quarter in Genetic Testingtickeron.com
- 9Natera NTRA Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 10Natera Spotlights Record Signatera Volumes, Raises Outlook at Canaccord Conferencesharewise.com
- 11Natera (NTRA) 2026 年第二季度财报电话会议实录|长桥证券longbridge.com
- 12Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Stock Research Report | Flashflash.stocksentinel.ai
- 13Natera Raises 2026 Outlook as Q1 Revenue Spikes 39 Percent | GenomeWebgenomeweb.com
- 14Natera, Inc.roic.ai
- 15Natera outlines $2.85B-$2.91B 2026 revenue outlook...seekingalpha.com
- 16[NTRA] Natera: Q3 2026 earnings test Signatera volume, margin and cash flow | drillrdrillr.ai
- 17Natera (NTRA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
7. To justify Wall Street's consensus revenue forecast of ~$840M for Q1 2027, what combination of test volume and average selling price (ASP) is implied?
| Wall Street Q1 2027 Revenue Forecast | $840.49 million to $840.61 million [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Tests Processed for Q1 2027 Forecast | Approximately 1.10-1.15 million tests [3][1][2][4][5][6][7] |
| Blended ASP for Q1 2027 Forecast | $730-$765 per test [3][1][2][4][5][6][7] |
Sources (9)
- 1Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
- 2Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Analyst Estimates - Revenue & EPSbusinessquant.com
- 3Natera (NTRA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 4Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
- 5Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsfinance.yahoo.com
- 6Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Nateranatera.com
- 7Natera (NTRA) Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Recap: A Record Quarter in Genetic Testingtickeron.com
- 8Natera Raises 2026 Outlook as Q1 Revenue Spikes 39 Percent | GenomeWebgenomeweb.com
- 9Natera NTRA Q1 2026 Earnings Callfinance.biggo.com
8. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 03, 2027
- Closes: September 03, 2027
Sources (21)
- 1Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
- 2Natera Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 3Natera, Inc. (NTRA) 10-Q Quarterly Report May 2026last10k.com
- 4Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.natera.com
- 5Natera: Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending September 30, 2026 (Form 10-Q) | MarketScreener Indiain.marketscreener.com
- 6Natera (NTRA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 7Natera Misses On The Bottom Line, But A 13% Revenue Beat, Third Guidance Raise And $6B 2029 Target Dominate The Quarterfinviz.com
- 8Natera Inc. Earnings Call Highlights Rapid Growth - TipRanks.comtipranks.com
- 9Natera NTRA Q1 2026 Earnings Callfinance.biggo.com
- 10Natera Spotlights Record Signatera Volumes, Raises Outlook at Canaccord Conferencesharewise.com
- 11Natera (NTRA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 12Natera (NTRA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 13Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
- 14Natera (NasdaqGS:NTRA) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictionssimplywall.st
- 15Natera, Inc. (NTRA) jumps 15% after-hours on earnings buzz | TickerSparktickerspark.ai
- 16Natera Inc Splits, Dividends and Corporate Actionsus.trendlyne.com
- 17Natera (NTRA) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings Call & Financialspublic.com
- 18Natera (NTRA) Q3 2024 Earnings Report - Results, Call & Slides - TipRanks.comtipranks.com
- 19Natera, Inc. | Natera to Report its First Quarter Results on May 7, 2026investor.natera.com
- 20Natera tests processed next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 21Natera tests processed in Q3 Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com