Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for Venture Global LNG volumes above 1780 tbtu (model 20.0% vs market 0.0%), driven by updated cargo guidance and the Q4 2026 commercialization of Plaquemines Phase 1.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market for Venture Global's fiscal 2026 LNG volumes shows a sharp, one-day repricing. On August 13, the probability moved from a low of 1.0% to 25.0%, before jumping to 95.0% on August 14, where it has remained. This rapid upward revision reflects the market's absorption of the company's strong performance and guidance. Venture Global reported exporting 257 LNG cargos in the first half of 2026 and issued full-year guidance of 500–518 cargos. The price action indicates a high degree of confidence that the company will meet the underlying volume target for the contract.
The price chart shows clear support at 1.0% and immediate, strong resistance at 95.0%. The entire move occurred without establishing any intermediate technical levels. Despite the decisive price movement, the total volume traded is zero contracts. This lack of liquidity suggests the price changes are not the result of active, two-sided trading. The current 95.0% probability may reflect the initial pricing from the market maker or a single participant's orders rather than broad market consensus or conviction.
The current price implies that the resolution event is almost certain. However, the absence of trading volume means this sentiment is untested. The market is effectively dormant, with the price reflecting published corporate guidance but lacking confirmation from actual trading activity. Without volume, the price level's predictive value is limited, serving more as a marker based on public data than a reflection of aggregated market opinion.
  • Plaquemines Phase 1's Q4 2026 commercialization likely drives volumes above 1900 TBtu.
  • Strong global demand and raised full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance support volumes exceeding 1948 TBtu.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 1860 tbtu 66.0% 20.0% Market higher by 46.0pp
Above 1780 tbtu 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp
Above 1820 tbtu 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp
Above 1900 tbtu 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp
Above 1940 tbtu 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp

Current Context

Venture Global projects total cargo exports of 500–518 for 2026. This comprises 149–154 cargos from the Calcasieu Pass facility and 351–364 from Plaquemines [1][2]. For the first half of 2026, the company reported 257 cargos exported and 947.2 TBtu of LNG sold [1][2]. These operations generated $9.177 billion in revenue and $3.863 billion in Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA during the period [1][2].
Management raised 2026 EBITDA guidance citing higher liquefaction fees. The full-year Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 increased to $8.7–$9.1 billion, up from the prior $8.2–$8.5 billion range [3][2][4]. This upward revision reflects higher liquefaction fees on remaining unsold cargos [3][2][4]. Management and expert outlooks indicate that ongoing Middle East conflict and global LNG market tightness, including supply issues, have strengthened pricing power, leading to adjusted assumptions of $12.50–$13.50/MMBtu for remaining 2026 liquefaction fees [4][5].
Capital expenditures for 2026 are forecasted at $13 billion. This figure is slightly above previous guidance [5]. The company continues to scale capacity at its Plaquemines and CP2 projects [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Venture Global Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.ventureglobal.com
  2. 2Venture Global posts strong Q2 2026 LNG results | VG 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  3. 3Venture Global Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  4. 4Venture Global (VG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  5. 5Venture Global sees shift coming in ratio of capex to cash flows | Oil & Gas Journalogj.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 13, 2026: 85.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 86.0%

Outcome: Above 1820 tbtu

What happened: The available research indicates no evidence of an "85.0 percentage point spike" or related news for Venture Global LNG volumes on August 13, 2026 [1]. Instead, significant market activity, including a 7.29% decline in Venture Global shares due to a revenue miss despite beating earnings-per-share, occurred on August 11, 2026, following the company's Q2 earnings release [1]. While Venture Global announced raised full fiscal year 2026 guidance on August 11, 2026 [2][3], this traditional news event does not align with the reported price spike on August 13. Therefore, based on the provided information, social media activity was irrelevant as no such price movement is evidenced on the specified date.
Sources (3)
  1. 1Venture Global Surges to Top Spot in Daily Turnover as Earnings Beat Mask Revenue Missainvest.com
  2. 2Venture Global Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  3. 3VG Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Higher LNG Volumes, Outlook Raised — TradingView Newstradingview.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market asks if Venture Global's LNG volumes in fiscal 2026 will be above 1860 TBtu. A "Yes" resolution is triggered if the total LNG volumes are greater than 1860 TBtu, while a "No" resolution occurs if they are 1860 TBtu or less. Trading for this market concludes on February 5, 4:00 PM EST, and the maximum payout date is May 6, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 1860 tbtu $0.67 $0.42 66%
Above 1780 tbtu $0.99 $0.06 0%
Above 1820 tbtu $0.95 $0.14 0%
Above 1900 tbtu $0.31 $0.78 0%
Above 1940 tbtu $0.11 $0.98 0%

Market Discussion

Venture Global expects to export 500 - 518 total LNG cargos in 2026, comprising 149 - 154 from Calcasieu Pass and 351 - 364 from Plaquemines [1][2]. Market participants view the company's high ratio of uncontracted spot volumes as a key driver of potential upside, benefiting from structural LNG market tightness [3][4][5]. However, there is debate on whether current valuation premiums are temporary, with risks noted for operational execution and demand substitution [3][4][6][5].

Sources (6)
  1. 1Venture Global Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.ventureglobal.com
  2. 2Venture Global posts strong Q2 2026 LNG results | VG 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  3. 3Venture Global Stock (VG) Opinions on Qatar LNG Disruptions | Quiver Quantitativequiverquant.com
  4. 4Venture Global: Tight LNG Market Derisks Investment Case (NYSE:VG) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
  5. 5Venture Global sees shift coming in ratio of capex to cash flows | Oil & Gas Journalogj.com
  6. 6The market is pricing Venture Global LNG as a Hormuz trade. | Anthony Rosenthallinkedin.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 60 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score74Good

Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score5Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score60Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract · 4 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 1860 tbtu—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract · 4 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 1860 tbtu—
No trading in 5d

No trades in the last 5d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract · 4 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 1860 tbtu100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
5Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 5.0c slippage (~8% of a 62c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

4 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 1860 tbtu–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 5d

No trades in the last 5d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 27, 2026

6. What operational milestones or potential disruptions at the Plaquemines and Calcasieu Pass facilities could most significantly impact Venture Global's H2 2026 production volumes?

Plaquemines Phase 1 Target CODQ4 2026 [1][2][3]
Plaquemines Phase 1 Expected Cargoes (2026)351 GÇô364 cargoes [4]
Calcasieu Pass Expected Cargoes (2026)149 GÇô154 cargoes [4]
The Commercial Operations Date (COD) for Plaquemines Phase 1 is a critical H2 2026 milestone. The most significant operational milestone impacting Venture Global's H2 2026 production volumes is the target Commercial Operations Date (COD) for Plaquemines Phase 1 in Q4 2026. This target is contingent on final commissioning, assurance testing, and potential remediation work. Operational risks for this phase include the successful completion of commissioning and potential regulatory or construction delays. For 2026, Venture Global expects to export 351–364 cargoes from Plaquemines [1][2][3][5][4].
Calcasieu Pass operations show stability, with key issues resolved. Major scheduled turbine maintenance at Calcasieu Pass was completed in Q2 2026 without significant production curtailment. Additionally, major arbitration issues with customers, such as Edison, have been resolved [6]. Venture Global expects to export 149–154 cargoes from Calcasieu Pass for 2026 [5][7][4][6]. Other operational risks for H2 2026 include market-driven fluctuations in natural gas prices and LNG liquefaction fees [5][7][4][6].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Venture Global Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  2. 2Venture Global Reports $5.6 Billion in CP2 Capital Spending as Plaquemines Phase 1 Nears Commercial Operations - Midstream Calendarmidstreamcalendar.com
  3. 3Venture Global LNG exports rise 42% as Plaquemines, CP2 projects advancepgjonline.com
  4. 4Venture Global Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.ventureglobal.com
  5. 5Press release datedsec.gov
  6. 6Venture Global and Edison Announce Calcasieu Pass Arbitration Settlement | Venture Globalventureglobal.com
  7. 7Venture Global lifts 2026 core profit forecastbnnbloomberg.ca

7. How does the production ramp-up at Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG facility compare to the historical ramp-up of its Calcasieu Pass facility and Cheniere's Corpus Christi Stage III?

Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 CODQ4 2026 [1][2][3][4]
Venture Global 2026 Total Cargoes500–518 [2][4]
Calcasieu Pass Ramp-up DurationApproximately 3 years [5]
Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG anticipates a swift progression to commercial operation. Phase 1 is currently in its final commissioning and testing stages, with its commercial operation date (COD) reaffirmed for Q4 2026. Phase 2 is projected to achieve COD in mid-2027 [1][2][3][4]. The company expects Plaquemines to export between 351 and 364 cargoes in 2026, contributing to a total consolidated cargo guidance of 500–518 for the year [2][4].
Plaquemines shows a quicker operational timeline than Calcasieu Pass. This anticipated timeline for Plaquemines suggests a more rapid transition to commercial operations compared to Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass facility. Calcasieu Pass experienced a delay of approximately three years, from its initial LNG production in January 2022 to the commencement of long-term contracted cargo deliveries in April 2025. This delay was attributed to equipment-related challenges and a complex modular start-up process [5].
Cheniere's Corpus Christi Stage III offers a different ramp-up trajectory. This facility began producing its first LNG in late 2024. As of June 2026, six of its seven midscale trains were operational, with the seventh expected to produce first LNG imminently as of early August 2026 [6][7][8]. However, specific cargo export numbers for Corpus Christi Stage 3 in 2026 were not available, preventing a direct cargo-based comparison with Plaquemines [2][4].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Venture Global posts strong Q2 2026 LNG results | VG 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  2. 2Venture Global Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  3. 3Venture Global Reports $5.6 Billion in CP2 Capital Spending as Plaquemines Phase 1 Nears Commercial Operations - Midstream Calendarmidstreamcalendar.com
  4. 4Venture Global Q2 2026 earnings: Plaquemines lifts revenue and marginstradingkey.com
  5. 5VG begins contracted LNG deliveries at Calcasieu Pass | Latest Market Newsargusmedia.com
  6. 6Cheniere Energy raises 2026 EBITDA outlook as Corpus Christi LNG expansionbusiness-news-today.com
  7. 7Cheniere's Corpus Christi Stage 3 project 98 percent complete - LNG Primelngprime.com
  8. 8Cheniere Nears Completion of Corpus Christi Stage 3 LNG Expansionnaturalgasintel.com

8. Which public data sources, such as EIA reports or maritime vessel tracking, offer the most timely data on Venture Global's LNG export cargos for H2 2026?

Total Cargos H2 2026 Guidance500–518 (total cargos) [1][2][3]
Calcasieu Pass Cargos H2 2026 Guidance149–154 (from Calcasieu Pass) [1][2][3]
Plaquemines Cargos H2 2026 Guidance351–364 (from Plaquemines) [1][2][3]
Official company filings provide the most accurate LNG export data. Venture Global's official quarterly 8-K filings and investor relations news releases offer the most timely and accurate public data on its LNG export cargo volumes [4][1][2][5]. These primary sources explicitly detail cargo counts and terajoules (TBtu) sold from both the Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines facilities, serving as definitive records for company performance [4][1][2][5].
Venture Global projects 500-518 cargos for H2 2026. For the second half of 2026 (H2 2026), Venture Global has issued an annual guidance range anticipating 500–518 total cargos [1][2][3]. This projection includes 149–154 cargos from Calcasieu Pass and 351–364 from Plaquemines [1][2][3]. While industry analysts often use maritime vessel tracking services for real-time export estimates, the company's official volume recognition, which directly impacts revenue, may not align precisely with shipment dates due to varying contractual terms such as Free On Board (FOB) versus Delivered Ex Ship (DES) or Delivered at Place Unloaded (DPU) [2][3]. Actual quarterly performance for H2 2026 will be disclosed in subsequent earnings reports [1][2][3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1vg-20260708sec.gov
  2. 2Venture Global posts strong Q2 2026 LNG results | VG 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  3. 3Venture Global Q2 2026 earnings: Plaquemines lifts revenue and marginstradingkey.com
  4. 4Financials and SEC Filings - Annual & Quarterly Resultsinvestors.ventureglobal.com
  5. 5Venture Global Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025...investors.ventureglobal.com

9. Based on the 947.2 TBtu exported in H1 2026, what cargo count and average volume per cargo are required in H2 2026 to meet the market's various resolution thresholds?

H1 2026 Cargos257 (Venture Global) [1][2][3][4]
H1 2026 Export Volume965.5 TBtu (Venture Global) [1][2][3][4]
Required H2 2026 Cargos243-261 additional cargos [1]
Venture Global needs additional H2 cargos to meet 2026 guidance. During the first half of 2026, Venture Global exported a total of 257 cargos, amounting to 965.5 TBtu [1][2][3][4]. To achieve its updated full-year 2026 guidance range of 500 to 518 total cargos, the company must export between 243 and 261 additional cargos in the second half of 2026 [1].
H1 2026 average volume estimates full-year export targets. The exports in the first half of 2026 indicate an average volume of approximately 3.757 TBtu per cargo [5][1][2][3][4]. Utilizing this H1 average, meeting the full-year cargo guidance would result in an estimated total annual export volume ranging from approximately 1,878 TBtu to 1,948 TBtu [1]. However, the available information does not specify a separate average volume per cargo required for H2 2026 to achieve these targets.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Venture Global posts strong Q2 2026 LNG results | VG 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  2. 2Venture Global Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  3. 3Venture Global Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsbarchart.com
  4. 4Venture Global LNG, Inc. - Venture Global Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.ventureglobal.com
  5. 5Venture Global posts strong Q2 growth as LNG volumes risestocktitan.net

10. How might significant fluctuations in European (TTF) and Asian (JKM) natural gas prices influence Venture Global's cargo destination decisions and total export volumes in H2 2026?

Contracted Capacity (2026)Approximately 91% (of available cargo capacity) [1][2][3]
Expected LNG Cargoes (2026)500-518 cargoes [2][4]
Arbitrage Spread CostApproximately $1.00-$3.00/MMBtu (cost of freight and canal transit) [1][5][6][7]
Venture Global's flexible cargo destinations are driven by international gas price spreads. The company’s destination decisions for flexible spot cargoes are primarily influenced by significant fluctuations in European (TTF) and Asian (JKM) natural gas prices [1][2][8][9]. Profitability in 2026 is bolstered by Iran-related disruptions to global LNG supplies, which have widened the spread between Henry Hub and international benchmarks (TTF/JKM), enabling higher liquefaction fees on its unsold and flexible spot cargoes [1][2][8][9]. These destination decisions are largely driven by the JKM-TTF arbitrage spread; when this price differential exceeds the estimated $1.00-$3.00/MMBtu cost of freight and canal transit, flexible cargoes are incentivized to move to the higher-priced market, although diversions are not instantaneous due to logistical constraints and existing contractual obligations [1][5][6][7].
Contracted capacity limits changes in total export volumes. For the 2026 fiscal year, Venture Global expects to export between 500 and 518 LNG cargoes in total [2][4]. However, approximately 91% of Venture Global's available cargo capacity for 2026 is already contracted, meaning only a small portion remains available for flexible spot market arbitrage [1][2][3]. While the company uses a portfolio approach to maintain some flexibility for high-margin market opportunities, this contracted capacity significantly limits the extent to which JKM-TTF fluctuations can impact total export volumes for 2026 [1][2][3].
Sources (9)
  1. 1LNG arbitrage creates winners from energy shock | Reutersreuters.com
  2. 2Venture Global posts strong Q2 2026 LNG results | VG 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  3. 3Venture Global Q2 Earnings Call Highlights - The Cerbat Gemthecerbatgem.com
  4. 4Venture Global LNG exports rise 42% as Plaquemines, CP2 projects advancepgjonline.com
  5. 5The arb flips west; no cargo follows | Iran Conflict 2026lowdown.today
  6. 6JKM-TTF arbitrage: Price spread between Asian… — Lowdown Todaylowdown.today
  7. 7https://lngpriceindex.com/lng-arbitragelngpriceindex.com
  8. 8Venture Global Q2 2026 earnings: Plaquemines lifts revenue and marginstradingkey.com
  9. 9Venture Global sees shift coming in ratio of capex to cash flows | Oil & Gas Journalogj.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Venture Global expects 500-518 LNG cargos exported in 2026, comprising 149-154 from Calcasieu Pass and 351-364 from Plaquemines [1][2]. Full-year 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA guidance stands at $8.7 billion - $9.1 billion, an increase after a strong Q2 2026 [1][2]. Bullish catalysts include a tight global LNG market, driven by geopolitical issues like the Iran conflict, and increased pricing power through shorter-term contracts [1][3][4]. The approaching commercialization of Plaquemines Phase 1 also serves as a positive driver [1][3][4].
Bearish risks involve operational or execution setbacks in construction and commissioning of large projects, potential demand substitution, and significant capital expenditure requirements, with $13 billion forecasted for 2026 [3][4]. Plaquemines Phase 1 commercial operations are targeted for Q4 2026, with Phase 2 expected mid-2027 [5][6]. CP2 construction is ongoing, targeting first LNG in the second half of 2027 [5][6].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 06, 2027
  • Closes: May 06, 2027
Sources (6)
  1. 1Venture Global Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.ventureglobal.com
  2. 2Venture Global posts strong Q2 2026 LNG results | VG 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  3. 3Venture Global: Tight LNG Market Derisks Investment Case (NYSE:VG) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
  4. 4Venture Global sees shift coming in ratio of capex to cash flows | Oil & Gas Journalogj.com
  5. 5Venture Global LNG exports rise 42% as Plaquemines, CP2 projects advancepgjonline.com
  6. 6Venture Global Reports $5.6 Billion in CP2 Capital Spending as Plaquemines Phase 1 Nears Commercial Operations - Midstream Calendarmidstreamcalendar.com