Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect BrightSpring Health home health average daily census in Q3 2026 to be Above 46800, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price action is defined by its complete lack of trading volume. With zero contracts traded, the chart reflects only adjustments to resting bids and asks, not executed transactions. The price opened at a 1.0% probability and currently stands at 4.0%, indicating a marginal increase in perceived likelihood. The overall trend is sideways, characterized by a brief, unsupported spike to a high of 32.0% on August 13, 2026, which immediately reversed. This movement carries no weight as it was not confirmed by any trading activity and suggests a single participant placing or moving an order rather than a shift in market sentiment.
The low implied probability of 4.0% suggests participants see a low chance of BrightSpring's Q3 home health average daily census reaching the 46,800 resolution threshold. This is notable given the most recent data point from Q2 2026 was 46,448, just below the target. The market appears to be discounting the company's positive Q2 performance and increased full-year guidance. The absence of volume signifies that there is no conviction behind any price level. Without executed trades, key levels like support and resistance are notional at best. The primary driver for any future, meaningful price discovery will be the release of Q3 financial results on October 27, 2026.
  • A Q3 census above 46,800 is possible, supported by strong integration.
  • However, decelerated Q2 growth suggests larger increases are less likely.
  • Management commentary on acquired assets indicates a stable to slightly increasing census.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 46800 0.0% 0.6% Model higher by 0.6pp
Above 47000 0.0% 0.5% Model higher by 0.5pp
Above 47200 0.0% 0.4% Model higher by 0.4pp
Above 47400 0.0% 0.3% Model higher by 0.3pp
Above 47600 0.0% 0.2% Model higher by 0.2pp

Current Context

BrightSpring's Q3 2026 home health census data is not yet available. BrightSpring Health Services will announce its Q3 2026 financial results on October 27, 2026 [1]. As of the Q2 2026 reporting period, which ended June 30, 2026, the company reported a home health care average daily census of 46,448 [2]. No specific information regarding BrightSpring Health's home health average daily census for Q3 2026 was found in the provided sources [11-23].
Q2 2026 results showed significant growth, raising full-year guidance. BrightSpring's Q2 2026 earnings were driven by pharmacy performance and the integration of acquired Amedisys and LHC Group assets [3][4][5]. This performance led to an increased full-year 2026 guidance for revenue and Adjusted EBITDA [3][4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Investor Relations...quartr.com
  2. 2BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | lifestyle.pspl.comlifestyle.pspl.com
  3. 3BrightSpring Expects $35M EBITDA Boost From Amedisys, LHC Group Assets - Home Health Care Newshomehealthcarenews.com
  4. 4BrightSpring earnings skyrocket in Q2 on strength of pharmacy, home health - McKnights Home Caremcknightshomecare.com
  5. 5BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock (BTSG) Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - July 31, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 13, 2026: 14.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 15.0%

Outcome: Above 47000

What happened: The primary driver for the market price spike was likely the BrightSpring Health Services Q2 2026 financial results, released on July 31, 2026, which reported a home health average daily census of 46,448 [1] and raised full-year guidance [1][2]. Although BrightSpring's stock experienced an initial negative reaction (-4.9%) to the Q2 report [3], the disclosed census figure was just below the "Above 47000" outcome threshold, and the increased guidance likely fostered positive expectations for continued growth in Q3. This information, potentially undergoing a delayed positive re-evaluation by prediction market participants, appears to have led the price spike on August 13, 2026. No social media activity related to BrightSpring's Q3 home health census was identified in the provided research, making it irrelevant as a driver for this specific market movement.
Sources (3)
  1. 1BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | Markets Insidermarkets.businessinsider.com
  2. 2BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidanceinvestor.wedbush.com
  3. 3BrightSpring Q2 Earnings: $3.87B Revenue, Guidance Upstocktitan.net

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi prediction market resolves based on BrightSpring Health's home health average daily census in Q3. A YES resolution occurs if the Q3 average daily census is above the specific numerical threshold for that contract (e.g., 46800), while a NO resolution occurs if it is at or below that threshold. Trading for this market concludes on November 6 at 4:00 PM EST, and no special settlement conditions are detailed in the provided information.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 46800 $0.99 $0.10 0%
Above 47000 $0.93 $0.17 0%
Above 47200 $0.69 $0.41 0%
Above 47400 $0.43 $0.67 0%
Above 47600 $0.22 $0.88 0%
Above 47800 $0.11 $0.99 0%

Market Discussion

BrightSpring Health has not yet announced its Q3 2026 financial results, which are expected in late October 2026, meaning specific data for its home health average daily census in Q3 2026 is not yet available from public discussion [1][12-22]. The company reported a Q2 2026 home health average daily census of 46,448, marking a 54% increase from Q2 2025 [2][1]. Market commentary has generally been positive regarding BrightSpring's Home Health performance, citing volume growth above industry levels and successful expansion efforts [3][4][5].

Sources (5)
  1. 1BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarterglobenewswire.com
  2. 2BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | lifestyle.pspl.comlifestyle.pspl.com
  3. 3BrightSpring Health (BTSG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfinance.yahoo.com
  4. 4BrightSpring earnings skyrocket in Q2 on strength of pharmacy, home health - McKnights Home Caremcknightshomecare.com
  5. 5BrightSpring Health (BTSG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call...theglobeandmail.com

5. What is the projected contribution of the newly acquired Amedisys and LHC Group assets to BrightSpring's home health average daily census for Q3 2026?

Q3 2026 Home Health ADC Contribution (Amedisys/LHC)Not explicitly disclosed [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]
Expected 2026 Adjusted EBITDA (Amedisys/LHC acquisition)Approximately $35 million [1][8]
Total Home Health Care ADC Q2 202646,448 [8]
BrightSpring has not disclosed specific Q3 2026 home health census contributions. BrightSpring Health Services has not explicitly provided a numerical projection for the contribution of its newly acquired Amedisys and LHC Group assets to its home health average daily census for the third quarter of 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. The combined Q3 2026 home health average daily census contribution from these assets remains undisclosed in the available materials [2][3][4][5][6][7].
Related financial metrics highlight significant impacts from the acquisitions. Although a specific Q3 2026 home health average daily census contribution was not detailed, BrightSpring's Q2 2026 earnings release indicated that the acquisition of Amedisys and LHC branches is projected to contribute approximately $35 million in adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2026 [1][8]. In the second quarter of 2026, the newly integrated Amedisys and LHC branches generated approximately $78 million in revenue and $8 million in adjusted EBITDA [1]. BrightSpring Health Services reported a total Home Health Care average daily census of 46,448 for Q2 2026, marking a substantial increase from 30,085 in Q2 2025; this growth is largely attributed to the integration of the Amedisys and LHC Group assets, in addition to other strategic expansions [8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1BrightSpring Expects $35M EBITDA Boost From Amedisys, LHC Group Assets - Home Health Care Newshomehealthcarenews.com
  2. 2www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
  3. 3www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
  4. 4www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
  5. 5www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
  6. 6www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
  7. 7www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
  8. 8BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | lifestyle.pspl.comlifestyle.pspl.com
  9. 9BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com

6. What guidance did BrightSpring's management provide during the Q2 2026 earnings call regarding integration progress from the Amedisys and LHC Group assets?

FY2026 EBITDA Guidance (Acquired Assets)Approximately $35 million [1][2][3]
Q2 2026 Revenue (Acquired Assets)Approximately $78 million [1][4][2]
Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA (Acquired Assets)Approximately $8 million [1][4][2]
BrightSpring reported strong integration and raised EBITDA guidance for acquired assets. During the Q2 2026 earnings call, BrightSpring management confirmed that the integration of the acquired Amedisys and LHC Group assets is progressing successfully, with all business lines and branches now operating on the company's home-based system [1][4][2]. Citing successful integration efforts and volume growth, management increased the full-year 2026 EBITDA contribution guidance for these acquired assets to approximately $35 million [1][2][3].
Acquired assets exceeded expectations, contributing significantly to Q2 results. BrightSpring had initially planned for a slower ramp-up of growth initiatives to prioritize integration, but the acquired assets outperformed expectations in Q2 2026 [1][4][2]. In that quarter, these assets contributed approximately $78 million in revenue and $8 million in adjusted EBITDA [1][4][2].
Sources (4)
  1. 1BrightSpring Health (BTSG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  2. 2BrightSpring Expects $35M EBITDA Boost From Amedisys, LHC Group Assets - Home Health Care Newshomehealthcarenews.com
  3. 3BrightSpring Health Services Inc (BTSG) (Q2 2026)...finance.yahoo.com
  4. 4BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com

7. How did BrightSpring's home health census growth in H1 2026 compare to key competitor Encompass Health?

BrightSpring Q2 2026 Home Health ADC46,448 [1][2][3]
BrightSpring Q1 2026 Home Health ADC46,066 [1][2][3]
BrightSpring Q2 2026 Home Health ADC YOY Growth54% [1][2]
BrightSpring Health significantly expanded its home health average daily census. In the first half of 2026, BrightSpring Health's home health average daily census (ADC) reached 46,066 in Q1 2026 and 46,448 in Q2 2026 [1][2][3]. This represented a year-over-year increase of 52% in Q1 and 54% in Q2, respectively [1][2]. This growth was driven by a combination of organic expansion, new facility openings, and the integration of assets from Amedisys and LHC Group, which contributed $8 million in adjusted EBITDA during Q2 2026 [1][2][4].
Direct home health census comparison with Encompass Health is not possible. Encompass Health does not report a comparable 'home health census' metric, making a direct comparison of home health census growth unfeasible [5][6][7]. Encompass Health primarily focuses on inpatient rehabilitation facilities and reports an average daily census for its hospitals [5][6][7]. For the first half of 2026, Encompass Health's hospital average daily census exceeded 9,000 in both Q1 and Q2 [5][6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidanceinvestor.wedbush.com
  2. 2BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | BrightSpring Health Servicesir.brightspringhealth.com
  3. 3BrightSpring Health Services (NASDAQ: BTSG) lifts 2026...stocktitan.net
  4. 4BrightSpring Expects $35M EBITDA Boost From Amedisys, LHC Group Assets - Home Health Care Newshomehealthcarenews.com
  5. 5Encompass Health: Second Quarter 2026 Supplemental Information | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  6. 6Encompass Health (EHC) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  7. 7Encompass Health (EHC) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com

8. What has been BrightSpring's quarter-over-quarter growth trend for its home health average daily census from Q3 2025 through Q2 2026?

Home Health ADC Q3 202529,592 [1][2][3][4]
Home Health ADC Q2 202646,448 [1][2][3][4]
Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 Growth33.2% [1][2][3][4]
BrightSpring's home health average daily census grew significantly over four quarters. The company's average daily census (ADC) for home health services began at 29,592 in the third quarter of 2025. This figure rose to 34,593 in the fourth quarter of 2025, then increased substantially to 46,066 by the first quarter of 2026. The ADC continued its upward trend, reaching 46,448 in the second quarter of 2026 [1][2][3][4].
Quarterly growth rates varied significantly, driven by a major acquisition. BrightSpring experienced an approximate 16.9% increase in its home health ADC from Q3 to Q4 2025. This was followed by a substantial 33.2% rise from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026. Growth moderated to a 0.8% increase from Q1 to Q2 2026 [1][2][3][4]. This overall growth trajectory was notably influenced by the integration of the Amedisys and LHC Branches Acquisition during this specific period [1][2][3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2025...ir.brightspringhealth.com
  2. 2BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026...ir.brightspringhealth.com
  3. 3BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Fourth Quarter and...ir.brightspringhealth.com
  4. 4BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarterglobenewswire.com

9. How are changes in Medicare reimbursement policies for 2026 projected to influence home health patient volumes for providers like BrightSpring in Q3?

2026 Home Health Medicare Payment ReductionApproximately 1.3% (aggregate) [1][2][3]
BrightSpring Q2 2026 Home Health ADC46,448 [4][5][6]
BrightSpring Home Health ADC Growth (YoY)54% (Q2 2025 to Q2 2026) [4][5][6]
Medicare reimbursement policies for 2026 project an aggregate payment reduction. Specifically, home health agencies face an approximate 1.3% cut in aggregate payments for Calendar Year 2026 [1][2][3]. This reduction is primarily driven by a 2.4% market basket update being diminished by both permanent (-1.023%) and temporary (-3.0%) behavioral adjustment factors outlined in the Medicare Home Health Prospective Payment System (HH PPS) final rule [1][2][3]. This indicates a challenging regulatory payment landscape for the sector.
BrightSpring's home health segment experienced significant patient volume growth. Despite the challenging regulatory payment environment, BrightSpring Health reported substantial expansion in its home health operations. The company's Home Health Care average daily census (ADC) reached 46,448 in Q2 2026, marking a 54% increase from 30,085 recorded in Q2 2025 [4][5][6]. This notable growth in both home health revenue and patient census was strategically achieved through de novo expansions and the successful integration of acquired assets [7][8][6].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Calendar Year (CY) 2026 Home Health Prospective...cms.gov
  2. 2DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services 42 CFR Parts 405, 414, 424, 455, 484, and 498 [CMS-1828-F] RIN 0938-AV53 Medicare and Medicaid Programs; Calendar Year 2026 Home Health Prospective Payment System (HH PPS) Rate Update; Requirements for the HH Quality Reporting Program and the HH Value-Based Purchasing Expanded Model; Durable Medical Equipment, Prosthetics, Orthotics, and Supplies (DMEPOS) Competitive Bidding Program Updates; DMEPOS Accreditation Requirements; Provider Enrollment; and Other Medicare and Medicaid Policies AGENCY: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: This final rule sets forth routine updates to the Medicare home health payment rates in accordance with existing statutory and regulatory requirements. In addition, this final rule finalizes permanent and temporary behavior adjustments and recalibrates the case-mix weights and update the functional impairment levels; comorbidity subgroups; and low-utilization payment adjustment (LUPA) thresholds for CY 2026. This final rule also finalizes changes to the face-to-face encounter policy and changes to the Home Health Quality Reporting Program (HH QRP) and the expanded Health Value-Based Purchasing (HHVBP) Model requirements. In addition, it updates the Durable Medical Equipment, Prosthetics, Orthotics, and Supplies (DMEPOS) Competitive Bidding Program (CBP). Lastly it finalizes: a technical change to the HH conditions of participation; updates to DMEPOS supplier conditions of payment; updates tohhs.com
  3. 3CY 2026 Home Health Final Rule: What the Payment Cut Actually Means for Your Agencyworldviewltd.com
  4. 4BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | lifestyle.pspl.comlifestyle.pspl.com
  5. 5BrightSpring Health Services - Unit | 8-K: FY2026 Q2 Revenue: USD 3.873 B | Longbridgelongbridge.com
  6. 6BrightSpring Health (BTSG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call...theglobeandmail.com
  7. 7Earnings call transcript: BrightSpring beats Q2 2026 EPS...investing.com
  8. 8BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

BrightSpring Health Services is expected to report its Q3 2026 financial results on October 27, 2026 [1]. Its Home Health Care segment recorded an average daily census of 46,448 in Q2 2026. This reflected significant year-over-year growth, primarily driven by acquisitions such as Amedisys and LHC Group assets [2][3].
Bullish catalysts for BrightSpring include the scaling of its high-margin Specialty and Infusion pharmacy segment [4][5]. Successful integration of acquired home health assets and efficiency programs aimed at margin expansion are also key upside drivers [4][5].
Bearish catalysts involve regulatory headwinds from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which may affect the Home and Community Pharmacy business [4][5]. Reimbursement pressure and market valuation concerns, despite strong earnings execution, present additional risks [4][5].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 06, 2027
  • Closes: March 06, 2027
Sources (5)
  1. 1BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Investor Relations...quartr.com
  2. 2BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | lifestyle.pspl.comlifestyle.pspl.com
  3. 3BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidanceinvestor.wedbush.com
  4. 4BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Stock Retreats As Valuation Angst Trumps Growth - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
  5. 5How Investors May Respond To BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Raised 2026 Revenue Outlook And Strong Q2 Results - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st