Short Answer

BrightSpring Health's Q3 2026 home health average daily census is not expected to exceed 47,400. Q2 2026's 46,448 ADC and historical sequential trends indicate a Q3 range closer to 46,900–47,300, despite management's expectation of sequential growth and successful acquisitions; the market prices this outcome at 33.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has been static since its inception, with a complete absence of trading volume and no price movement from its initial 83.0% probability. The contract, which resolves based on whether BrightSpring's Q3 home health average daily census (ADC) exceeds 46,800, has not reacted to any new information.
The high, stable probability is consistent with the company's recent performance. BrightSpring reported a Q2 2026 ADC of 46,448, which was a 54% year-over-year increase, and a first-half 2026 average of 46,258. The market's 46,800 strike requires only a modest sequential increase from Q2. Broader prediction market data further supports this pricing, implying a consensus Q3 ADC of approximately 47,317, well above this contract's threshold. The market awaits the company's official Q3 results, scheduled for release on October 30.
  • Since last update (~12h): Model conviction for 'Above 47000' surged by +83.7pp, flipping the edge as the market held.
  • Model conviction for 'Above 46800' rose +83.6pp, widening the edge against market.
  • Headline model probability rose +83.6pp, widening the edge by +0.6pp; confidence increased +1.0pp.
  • Model's probability for 'Above 47400' rose +30.9pp, compressing the edge against the market.
  • Q3 2026 ADC is expected to exceed 47,000, driven by sequential growth.
  • The 46,900–47,300 range appears likely, supported by branch integrations.

Current Context

Prediction markets indicate Q3 home health average daily census around 47,317. As of October 24, 2026, BrightSpring had not yet reported Q3 2026 results; the Q3 earnings release and conference call are scheduled for October 30, 2026, before market open [1]. The company’s Q2 2026 home-health average daily census (ADC) was 46,448, representing a 54% year-over-year increase from 30,085. The first-half 2026 average ADC stood at 46,258, compared to 30,163 in first-half 2025 [1]. Prediction market pricing on October 24, 2026, implied a Q3 home-health ADC near 47,317, with the market scheduled to close October 30 at 6:00 a.m. EDT [2]. Threshold probabilities suggested a 94.5% chance above 46,800, 87.5% above 47,000, 64% above 47,200, 37% above 47,400, 17.5% above 47,600, and 6.5% above 47,800 [2]. A base-case forecast estimates Q3 2026 home-health ADC near 47,300-47,500, implying approximately 1.8%-2.3% sequential growth from Q2’s 46,448 and about 57%-58% year-over-year growth compared to Q2 2025 [1]. This is a forecast, not reported financial data, and the market can resolve differently under its stated rules [1]. The Q3 2025 home-health ADC was not identified in the retrieved official release excerpt, so an exact year-over-year Q3 comparison remains unverified [3].
BrightSpring reported strong Q2 operating results and raised full-year 2026 guidance. Q2 2026 operating momentum was strong, with total revenue reaching $3.873 billion, up 23.0% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA at $206 million, a 44.2% increase [1]. Provider Services revenue grew 30% to $466 million, contributing $75 million in segment EBITDA, up 33% [1]. Secondary analysis reported Home Health revenue at approximately $278 million, a 51% increase, with Amedisys/LHC branches contributing about $78 million in revenue and $8 million in adjusted EBITDA during the quarter [1]. Management subsequently raised its full-year 2026 guidance, targeting revenue of $15.100-$15.425 billion, Provider Services revenue of $1.900-$1.925 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $820-$845 million [1]. Amedisys/LHC branches are expected to contribute approximately $35 million to 2026 adjusted EBITDA [1].
Street estimates Q3 revenue around $3.87-$3.95 billion; management outlook is constructive. The comparable Q3 2025 baseline showed total revenue of $3.334 billion, up 28.2% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA of $160 million, a 37.2% increase [3]. Street estimates for Q3 2026 ranged from approximately $3.87-$3.95 billion for revenue and $0.47-$0.48 for EPS [4]. Yahoo Finance indicated an average revenue estimate of $3.87 billion from 15 analysts and an average EPS estimate of $0.47 from 16 analysts [5]. Recent management and analyst commentary remained constructive, identifying home health, hospice, and specialty pharmacy as key growth engines [6]. BrightSpring anticipates 2026 operating cash flow above $600 million and free cash flow near $500 million, expecting leverage to fall below 2.0x by year-end absent new deals [6]. Key risks include reimbursement and policy changes, Inflation Reduction Act-related pharmacy pressure, tariffs, seasonality, integration execution, and elevated acquisition valuations [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1EX-99.1sec.gov
  2. 2BrightSpring Health home health average daily census in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  3. 3BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2025 Guidance | BrightSpring Health Servicesir.brightspringhealth.com
  4. 4BrightSpring Health Services to announce Q3FY26 results...scanx.trade
  5. 5BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
  6. 6BrightSpring Health (BTSG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfinance.yahoo.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This contract resolves to YES if BrightSpring Health's home health average daily census for Q3 is greater than 47,400. It resolves to NO if the census is 47,400 or less. Trading concludes on October 30, 6:00 AM EDT, with a maximum payout date of March 6, 2027.

Market Discussion

Market contracts imply a BrightSpring Health Q3 2026 home-health average daily census of approximately 47,317 patients, suggesting about 1.9% sequential growth from the Q2 2026 reported census of 46,448 [1][2][3]. This forecast, consistent with a pre-release prediction of around 47,300, comes despite thin external social and trader discussion concerning the KPI, with Q3 results scheduled for October 30, 2026 [1][2][3][4].

Sources (4)
  1. 1BrightSpring Health home health average daily census in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  2. 2BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) earnings | Kalshikalshi.com
  3. 310-Qsec.gov
  4. 4BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Stock Forum (NASDAQ:BTSG) – TradingView Mindstradingview.com

4. How might the integration progress of Amedisys and LHC branches influence BrightSpring's Q3 2026 home health ADC results?

Acquired Branches FY26 Adj. EBITDAApproximately $35 million (raised guidance) [1]
Q2 2026 Year-over-year ADC Growth54% (attributed to acquisitions) [2][1]
Q3 2026 Home Health ADC PredictionStrong probability exceeds 46,800 (prediction-market snapshot) [3][4][5]
BrightSpring nears completion of Amedisys and LHC branch integrations. The core integration of acquired Amedisys and LHC branches is almost finished, with all business lines and branches successfully migrated to BrightSpring's home-based system. HR and IT integration have been cited as particularly successful [1][6]. This progress is expected to bolster BrightSpring's Q3 2026 Home Health Average Daily Census (ADC) by reducing operational friction and enabling volume initiatives. This supports retention and modest sequential growth, although the Q2-to-Q3 increase may be smaller than prior year-over-year gains [1].
Acquired branches significantly outperformed, boosting BrightSpring's financial results. These branches contributed approximately $78 million in revenue and $8 million in adjusted EBITDA during Q2 2026, exceeding initial expectations [1]. This strong performance led management to increase the full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA contribution forecast to roughly $35 million [1]. Management attributed Q2 2026's 54% year-over-year ADC growth, in part, to these acquired branches, indicating that the integration progress and financial outcomes establish a solid foundation for continued volume increases [2][1].
Q3 2026 Home Health ADC is projected to exceed 46,800. A prediction-market snapshot from October 24, 2026, indicates a strong probability that BrightSpring's Home Health ADC will surpass 46,800 in Q3 2026, with lower probabilities for higher thresholds [3][4][5]. Analytical scenarios further suggest that the Q3 2026 Home Health ADC could range from 46,800 to 47,200, provided integration stabilizes and generates modest ramp-up [1]. Achieving ADC above 47,200 would necessitate accelerated volume from the acquired branches in addition to BrightSpring's organic growth, while numbers below 46,800 could result from unforeseen integration issues or softness in branch volumes [1].
Sources (6)
  1. 1BrightSpring Health (BTSG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call...fool.com
  2. 2BrightSpring Health Services to announce Q3FY26 results...scanx.trade
  3. 3BrightSpring Health home health average daily census in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  4. 4BrightSpring Health home health average daily census in Q3 - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  5. 5BrightSpring Health home health average daily census in Q3 | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  6. 6BrightSpring Health Services Q2 2026 Earnings Call...fortune.com

5. Based on Wall Street analyst models for Q3 2026 revenue, what is the implied range for BrightSpring's home health average daily census?

Total BrightSpring Q3 2026 Revenue Consensus$3.88 billion (up 16.3% YoY) [1]
Q2 2026 Home Health Average Daily Census46,448 [2]
Implied Q3 2026 Home Health ADC Range (Prediction Market)47,200-47,600 (strongest concentration 47,200-47,400) [3][4]
Wall Street data for BrightSpring's Q3 2026 Home Health revenue is unavailable. Wall Street consensus for Q3 2026 did not provide a reliable estimate specifically for BrightSpring's Home Health Care segment revenue [1]. Consequently, a defensible analyst-model-derived home health average daily census (ADC) range for Q3 2026 cannot be calculated from available sources due to the absence of a disclosed Q3 segment-revenue estimate [2]. While the overall Wall Street consensus for total BrightSpring Q3 2026 revenue was approximately $3.88 billion, representing a 16.3% year-over-year increase, this figure does not allow for a segment-specific revenue-based conversion [1]. The latest reported Q2 2026 home-health average daily census was 46,448 [2].
Prediction markets offer an implied Q3 2026 home-health ADC range. In the absence of direct analyst estimates for the Q3 Home Health Care segment, prediction markets offer an alternative perspective. The market's displayed thresholds imply a Q3 2026 census estimate around 47,200-47,400 [3][4]. Specifically, the probability for 'Above 47,200' is shown at 64%, while 'Above 47,400' is at 33% [3][4].
The best supported estimate for Q3 2026 ADC is 47,200-47,600. Based on these market-threshold inferences, the best supported estimate for BrightSpring's implied Q3 2026 home-health ADC falls within a range of roughly 47,200-47,600 [3][4]. The strongest concentration of these estimates centers around 47,200-47,400 [3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1BrightSpring Health Services Q3 2026 Earnings Date and...marketbeat.com
  2. 2BrightSpring Health (BTSG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call...fool.com
  3. 3BrightSpring Health home health average daily census in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  4. 4BrightSpring Health home health average daily census in Q3 - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

6. How does BrightSpring's year-over-year home health census growth in H1 2026 compare to that of key competitor Enhabit Inc. (EHAB)?

BrightSpring H1 2026 Home-Health Census GrowthApproximately 53.3% year-over-year [1][2]
BrightSpring Q2 2026 Home-Health Avg Daily Census46,448 [1][2]
Enhabit H1 2026 Home-Health Census GrowthNot explicitly reported [3]
BrightSpring demonstrated substantial year-over-year home health census growth in H1 2026. BrightSpring Health Services reported approximately 53.3% year-over-year growth in its home-health average daily census for the first half of 2026 [1][2]. During Q1 2026, the average daily census expanded by 52% from 30,241 in Q1 2025 to 46,066 [1][2]. This growth further accelerated into Q2 2026, reaching a 54% year-over-year increase, bringing the average daily census to 46,448 compared to 30,085 in Q2 2025 [1][2]. This represents a 2 percentage point acceleration in growth from the first to the second quarter of the year [1][2].
Enhabit's H1 2026 home health census growth is not available for direct comparison. A direct comparison of Enhabit Inc.'s (EHAB) home-health census growth for H1 2026 to BrightSpring's figures is not possible, as available research does not explicitly report this specific data for Enhabit [3]. While current H1 2026 growth figures are not reported for Enhabit, previous reports from Q2 2025 offered some context: home-health admissions for Enhabit increased by 1.3% year over year, or 2% when excluding closed branches [3]. Concurrently, Enhabit's home-health revenue experienced a 2.0% decrease during that same Q2 2025 period [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1BrightSpring Q2 2026 earnings rise, guidance raisedstocktitan.net
  2. 2BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports First Quarterglobenewswire.com
  3. 3Home-Based Care Public Company Roundup Q2 2025mertztaggart.com

7. What was BrightSpring's reported home health average daily census for Q3 2025, and where can this data be found in SEC filings?

Home Health Care Average Daily Census Q3 202529,592 (October 28, 2025 SEC filings) [1][2]
Home Health Care Average Daily Census Q3 202428,650 [1][2][3]
Home Health Care Average Daily Census for nine months ended Sept 30, 202529,970 [4][1]
BrightSpring reported a home health average daily census for Q3 2025. The company's Home Health Care average daily census was 29,592 for the three months ended September 30, 2025 [1][2]. This specific figure is available in BrightSpring's SEC filings, including their Form 8-K (accession 0001193125-25-253503) and Form 10-Q, both of which were submitted on October 28, 2025. The data can be found in Exhibit 99.1, which presents the Q3 2025 earnings-release business-metrics table [1][2][3].
This Q3 2025 figure offers valuable comparative context. For instance, BrightSpring's Home Health Care average daily census for the third quarter of 2024 was 28,650 [1][2][3]. It is also important to differentiate the quarterly Q3 2025 figure of 29,592 from the average daily census for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, which stood at 29,970 [4][1].
Sources (4)
  1. 1EX-99.1sec.gov
  2. 2https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1865782/000119312525253503/0001193125-25-253503.txtsec.gov
  3. 3Form 10-Q for Brightspring Health Services INC filed 10/28/2025investorrelations.brightspringhealth.com
  4. 4BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2025...ir.brightspringhealth.com

8. What do BrightSpring's historical sequential growth trends from Q2 to Q3 suggest for the Q3 2026 home health ADC?

Q3 2026 Home Health ADC EstimateRoughly 46,900–47,300 [1][2][3]
Q2 2026 Home Health ADC46,448 [1]
Prediction Market Likelihood >47,000 ADC87.5% [2][3]
BrightSpring's Q3 2026 home health ADC is projected to reach 46,900–47,300. This estimate assumes continued sequential growth, albeit at a slower rate than recent acquisition-driven increases [1][2][3]. The company's home health average daily census (ADC) was 46,448 in Q2 2026, which represented an approximate +0.8% sequential increase from Q1 2026's 46,066 ADC [1]. This growth in Q2 2026 was attributed to de novos, effective execution in preferred Medicare Advantage (MA) and Accountable Care Organization (ACO) agreements, and strategic acquisitions of Amedisys/LHC branches [4][5][6].
Historical growth was significantly influenced by substantial acquisitions, rather than solely organic expansion. More substantial sequential changes were observed in earlier periods, with a +16.9% increase from Q3 2025 to Q4 2025 and a +33.2% increase from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 [1]. This significant step-up in ADC during 2026 was largely driven by acquisitions, particularly the Amedisys/LHC branches, which contributed approximately $78 million in home-health revenue and $8 million in adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026 [1][6].
The Q3 2026 estimate aligns with current prediction market thresholds. The trend-based Q3 2026 estimate supports clearing current prediction market thresholds, suggesting a high probability of achieving specific ADC levels [2][3]. The market indicates a likelihood of approximately 94.5% for the ADC to be above 46,800 and 87.5% for it to exceed 47,000 [2][3]. While an ADC of 47,200 is considered plausible with a 64.0% likelihood, reaching 47,400 or more, which has a 37.0% likelihood, would necessitate a renewed acceleration in growth [2][3].
Sources (6)
  1. 1BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock (NASDAQfactorstoday.com
  2. 2BrightSpring Health home health average daily census in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  3. 3BrightSpring Health home health average daily census in Q3 | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  4. 4Earnings call transcript: BrightSpring Health Services beats...investing.com
  5. 5BrightSpring (BTSG) Earnings Call Transcripttheglobeandmail.com
  6. 6BRIGHTSPRING HEALTH SERVICES Aktie kaufen oder...aktien.guide

9. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Kalshi's Q3 2026 BrightSpring home-health Average Daily Census (ADC) market, as of October 24, 2026, implies 47,317, representing a 1.9% sequential increase from Q2's reported 46,448 [1][2]. The market assigns 64% probability to ADC being Above 47,200, while probability drops to 33% for Above 47,400 and 17% for Above 47,600 [1]. This positioning suggests expectations for a modest sequential gain rather than a repeat of the 54% year-over-year growth observed in Q2 2026 [1][2][3][4]. BrightSpring is scheduled to announce its Q3 2026 financial results on Friday, October 30, 2026, before market open, with the earnings call at 8:30 a.m. ET [5][6]. The Kalshi market for Q3 ADC closes on October 30 at 6:00 a.m. EDT, aligning its resolution with the official disclosure [1][2][5][7].
Potential bullish catalysts include continued home-health volume growth, successful integration of Amedisys/LHC, and expansion through de novo initiatives [3][7][8]. Operating leverage in the provider segment could also drive upside [3][7][8]. Furthermore, confirmation that acquired assets can deliver roughly $35 million of FY2026 adjusted EBITDA would be a positive signal [3][7][8]. The company's Q2 2026 performance, with total revenue of $3.873 billion and continuing-operations diluted EPS of $0.39, alongside raised FY2026 guidance of $15.10-$15.425 billion revenue and $820-$845 million adjusted EBITDA, supports these expectations [3][4][9][8].
Conversely, bearish catalysts encompass a potential census miss or weaker admissions, alongside challenges in clinician retention or integration [7][10]. Reimbursement or pricing pressure, slower productivity from AI and automation investments, and broader margin weakness pose further risks [7][10]. The company also faces approximately $200 million of FY2026 IRA-related pressure within its Home and Community Pharmacy segment [7][10][9][8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 06, 2027
  • Closes: March 06, 2027
Sources (10)
  1. 1BrightSpring Health home health average daily census in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  2. 2BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) earnings | Kalshikalshi.com
  3. 3Form 8-K for Brightspring Health Services INC filed 07/31/2026ir.brightspringhealth.com
  4. 410-Qsec.gov
  5. 5BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. to Announce Thirdglobenewswire.com
  6. 6BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Earnings Date, Estimates & Call Transcriptsmarketbeat.com
  7. 7BrightSpring Faces A Skeptical Market After Three Guidance Raises As Street Lags Its Outlookfinviz.com
  8. 8BTSG Stock Climbs 67.3% YTD: What's Driving the Rally in 2026?finance.yahoo.com
  9. 9BTSG Raises 2026 Guidance as Specialty and Home Health Drive Growthfinance.yahoo.com
  10. 10BrightSpring at Wells Fargo 21st Annual Healthcare Conference: growth broadens By Investing.cominvesting.com