Short Answer

Mizuho is expected to lead Anthropic's public offering before January 1, 2028; the market prices this outcome at 92.0%, while the model projects a 69.4% probability.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's collapse was driven by the release of Anthropic's preliminary S-1 filing on October 26, 2026. The filing named Goldman Sachs as lead-left underwriter and Morgan Stanley as the other lead. This disclosure effectively resolved speculation about the composition of the underwriting syndicate.
The contract's probability immediately fell from 37.0% to 1.0% on the day of the filing. This repricing occurred on the highest volume day in the market's history, with over 1,000 contracts traded, indicating a high-conviction reaction to the definitive news. The prior stability at 37.0% represented the market's priced-in probability of a different bank or syndicate securing the lead roles. The S-1's content rendered that outcome highly improbable.
  • Mizuho is favored; Anthropic's October 2026 S-1 confirmed a 22-bank syndicate.
  • Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead the confirmed IPO underwriting syndicate.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Stifel Financial 1.0% 0.3% Stifel Financial participates in various capital market transactions, including initial public offerings.
Rothschild & Co 19.0% 4.3% Rothschild & Co often advises companies on complex capital market transactions.
Mizuho 92.0% 69.4% Mizuho may provide essential advisory and underwriting services for the public offering.
Qatalyst Partners 7.0% 1.2% Qatalyst Partners may provide strategic advisory services for a significant public offering.
Allen & Company 5.0% 1.8% Allen & Company often advises on capital raising and significant corporate finance activities.

Current Context

Anthropic filed its preliminary S-1 on October 26, 2026, for a Nasdaq listing under ticker ANT [1][2][3][4][5]. Goldman Sachs is named as lead-left underwriter, with Morgan Stanley as the other lead and stabilization agent [1][6][7][8][9]. The filing and contemporaneous reports do not identify the full underwriting syndicate [1][6][7][8][9]. For the six months ended June 30, 2026, Anthropic reported revenue of $16.29 billion, up from $1.16 billion a year earlier [2][4][5]. Full-year 2025 revenue was $4.59 billion, compared to $386 million in 2024 [2][4][5]. First-half 2026 operating loss was $693 million, and net loss reached $80.7 billion, including approximately $72 billion in convertible-note valuation and accounting charges [2][4][5].
Compute expense represents a central financial risk for Anthropic's operations. The company reported $5.6 billion in compute expense during Q2 2026 against $11.6 billion in revenue [4][5]. Anthropic also disclosed multiyear compute commitments reportedly exceeding $600 billion with major infrastructure partners, including $110 billion with Amazon, $114.5 billion with Google, and $44.9 billion with Microsoft [4][5]. The S-1 filing and public coverage indicate exceptional growth alongside continuing financing and execution risk; Anthropic warned costs and losses may increase, and its infrastructure commitments could exceed IPO proceeds [2][3][5]. Fortune reported an adjusted operating income of $1.6 billion for first-half 2026, which is distinct from GAAP profitability [5]. Expert and market interpretations are bifurcated: bankers and investors project a potentially historic offering exceeding $100 billion, driven by Claude's growth, while analysts highlight extreme losses, compute dependence, customer concentration, long-term noncancelable commitments, and the risk that public investors may demand further financing [7][3][5].
Prediction market signals on October 27, 2026, strongly favored a 2026 listing. Polymarket's month market showed November 2026 at 87.3%, December at 8.7%, and January 2027 at 2.8% [10]. CNBC reported Kalshi at 95% for an IPO announcement by year-end and Polymarket at 69% for trading by November 20 [11]. These figures reflect market prices, not objective probabilities [10][11][12]. The reported timetable indicated marketing commencing around the week of November 9 and potential trading around the week of November 16, with Polymarket assigning approximately 91% odds to going public by November 30 [10][11][12]. Exact pricing, share count, valuation, effective date, and first trading date remained unconfirmed [10][11][12]. For the question of an IPO before January 1, 2028, available prediction-market evidence was overwhelmingly affirmative: Vultax’s Polymarket-derived snapshot showed 1.3% for no IPO before 2028, and CNBC reported near-certain 2026 expectations [11][12][13]. This remains a forecast, not a guarantee, given the preliminary S-1 and market fluidity [11][12][13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Anthropic, PBC - S-1 (Q2)sec.gov
  2. 2Anthropic IPO live updates: AI lab's S-1 filingcnbc.com
  3. 3Anthropic S-1 Reveals Rapid Growth Ahead of Blockbuster...nytimes.com
  4. 4Anthropic’s IPO: A close look at AI frontrunner’s rapid growth, spiraling costs By Reutersinvesting.com
  5. 5Fortune Tech: What Anthropic’s IPO prospectus reveals | Fortunefortune.com
  6. 6Goldman, Morgan Stanley Take Top Banking Roles in...bloomberg.com
  7. 7Anthropic's soaring sales, steep losses put AI frenzy to IPO...reuters.com
  8. 8Goldman Sachs to lead Anthropic's IPO in a SpaceX repeatmarketwatch.com
  9. 9Goldman, Morgan Stanley Take Top Banking Roles in Anthropic IPOnews.bloomberglaw.com
  10. 10In which month will Anthropic IPO?polymarket.com
  11. 11Prediction markets think Anthropic IPO near-certain in 2026cnbc.com
  12. 12Polymarket Users Make Anthropic IPO Predictionswsj.com
  13. 13Will Anthropic not IPO before 2028? Polymarket Odds | Vultaxapp.vultax.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Piper Sandler

📉 October 26, 2026: 84.0pp drop

Price decreased from 85.0% to 1.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 84.0 percentage point drop was the traditional news announcement of Anthropic's S-1 filing on October 26, 2026 [1]. This official regulatory document explicitly named Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as the lead underwriters for the initial public offering, alongside a broader syndicate of other banks, none of which included Piper Sandler [2][3][4]. The definitive revelation of the underwriting syndicate contradicted any prior market expectation for Piper Sandler. Social media activity was irrelevant, as the decisive information originated from an official company filing.

Outcome: Qatalyst Partners

📈 October 24, 2026: 70.0pp spike

Price increased from 17.0% to 87.0%

What happened: No specific social media activity or post directly naming "Qatalyst Partners" is identified as the primary driver for the 70.0 percentage point spike on October 24, 2026. The broader "news/social catalyst" on that date was the widespread anticipation of Anthropic's initial public offering, expected to file in late October [5]. However, Anthropic's Form S-1, filed on October 26, 2026, explicitly did not list Qatalyst Partners among its underwriters [2], indicating the price movement was based on unconfirmed speculation preceding official disclosures. Therefore, social media activity appears to have been mostly noise or a general accelerant for market speculation, rather than a specific driver for this outcome.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Anthropic files S-1 with the SEC for proposed initial public offering \ Anthropicanthropic.com
  2. 2Anthropic IPO live updates: AI lab's S-1 filingcnbc.com
  3. 3Goldman, Morgan Stanley Take Top Banking Roles in Anthropic IPOnews.bloomberglaw.com
  4. 4Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Snag Lead Roles in IPOwsj.com
  5. 5Anthropic IPO: What should investors consider when valuing the AI company? Aswath Damodaran explains - The Economic Timeseconomictimes.indiatimes.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A YES contract for a specific bank will resolve if that bank is confirmed to be one of the financial institutions that takes Anthropic public as an underwriter or lead bookrunner. Conversely, a NO contract will resolve if the named bank is not involved in Anthropic's initial public offering by December 31, 2027. No other special settlement conditions are explicitly stated.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Mizuho $1.00 $0.50 92%
Rothschild & Co $0.50 $1.00 19%
Lazard $0.50 $1.00 18%
Centerview $0.17 $1.00 13%
Perella Weinberg Partners $0.50 $1.00 12%
Greenhill & Co $1.00 $0.90 11%
PJT Partners $0.50 $1.00 11%
Moelis & Company $0.50 $1.00 10%
Qatalyst Partners $0.18 $1.00 7%
Allen & Company $0.11 $1.00 5%
Raymond James $0.79 $1.00 5%
William Blair $0.84 $1.00 5%
Evercore $0.09 $1.00 1%
Piper Sandler $0.83 $1.00 1%
Stifel Financial $0.01 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

Anthropic's S-1 filing names Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and Morgan Stanley as the two top underwriters, with Goldman Sachs listed first in the conventional lead-left position among a syndicate of 22 firms [1]. This positioning is reflected in financial press and prediction markets, where Goldman Sachs held an approximate 92% implied probability as the lead bank on Polymarket as of October 27, 2026, significantly ahead of Morgan Stanley's 7% [2].

Sources (2)
  1. 1Anthropic, PBC - S-1 (Q2)sec.gov
  2. 2Goldman Sachs to lead Anthropic's IPO in a SpaceX repeatmarketwatch.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 74 Good

“Allen & Company” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.

Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score78Good

Market integrity is low (67), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score59Caution
Trust score74Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

6. How do Qatalyst Partners and Evercore's recent track records compare for participating in tech IPOs with valuations over $50 billion?

Evercore Capital AdvisedMore than $100 billion [1][2][3]
Evercore Largest Listed TransactionGrab's $40 billion transaction [1]
Qatalyst Largest M&A DealAnsys/Synopsys ($34.8 billion) [4][5][6][7]
Evercore has a robust public-markets platform but lacks specified large IPO valuations. The firm demonstrates a documented recent public-markets and IPO execution platform, advising on over $100 billion of capital for companies such as CoreWeave, Astera Labs, Mobileye, Samsara, Snap, and Dropbox [1][2][3]. Its technology team highlights Grab's $40 billion transaction and Duolingo's $550 million IPO, and Evercore is listed as an active bookrunner on multiple 2026 IPOs [1]. However, the provided facts do not specify individual IPO valuations for most of these listed deals, nor do they explicitly state Evercore's participation in any tech IPO with a valuation exceeding $50 billion [1][2][3].
Qatalyst Partners' recent track record emphasizes M&A, not large IPOs. As an independent technology-focused strategic adviser, Qatalyst advises on IPOs and capital raising, but its publicly highlighted recent track record is significantly more M&A-oriented [4][5][6][7]. Recent disclosed deals include large technology sales such as Ansys/Synopsys ($34.8 billion), LinkedIn/Microsoft ($28.1 billion), and Qualtrics/SAP ($8 billion) [4][5][6][7]. All these transactions are M&A-focused and fall below the $50 billion valuation threshold [4][5][6][7]. While Qatalyst's historical IPO credentials are strong, including Frank Quattrone leading IPOs for Amazon.com and Cisco, these are largely legacy rather than recent [5][6]. Personnel biographies reference prior IPO work like Shopify and OnDeck, but the bound facts do not provide valuations for these or other historical IPOs, precluding a determination of whether any exceeded $50 billion [5][6].
Insufficient information prevents comparing recent $50 billion+ tech IPO participation. Therefore, based solely on the provided facts, there is insufficient information to compare Qatalyst Partners' and Evercore's recent track records for participating in tech IPOs with valuations over $50 billion. This is due to the lack of specified individual IPO valuations above the $50 billion threshold for Evercore and the absence of valuation details for Qatalyst's historical or prior IPO work [1][2][3][5][6].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Transactions - Evercoreevercore.com
  2. 2Kieran McDonald - Evercoreevercore.com
  3. 3Brandon Rasmusson - Evercoreevercore.com
  4. 4Strategic Advisors to the Technology Industryqatalyst.com
  5. 5Team - Qatalyst Partnersqatalyst.com
  6. 6Team - Qatalyst Partnersqatalyst.com
  7. 7Deals - Qatalyst Partnersqatalyst.com

7. What does historical data from IPOs led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley since 2021 reveal about the typical size and composition of their underwriting syndicates?

Typical Joint Book-Running Managers3–4 [1][2][3]
Life Time 2021 Deal Syndicate9 joint bookrunners plus 7 co-managers [1][4]
SpaceX 2026 S-1 Joint Book-Running Managers10 [5][4]
IPO underwriting syndicates typically establish a hierarchical structure with core managers. Such syndicates, when led by major banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, generally feature 3 to 4 joint book-running managers at the top tier [1][2][3]. This structure is not a flat list; it progresses from these top-tier joint leads or bookrunners to additional bookrunners or co-leads, and then to co-managers, which often include smaller or specialized firms [1][2][4][3].
Syndicate size varies significantly, particularly for large, high-profile offerings. While typical deals may involve a handful of joint bookrunners, such as Exscientia's 2021 offering with 4 joint bookrunners, or Syndax's 2022 deal with 3 joint bookrunners and 2 co-leads, larger offerings can involve substantially more firms [2][3]. For example, Life Time’s 2021 IPO included 9 joint bookrunners and 7 co-managers [1][4]. Similarly, Venture Global’s 2025 IPO listed 3 joint bookrunning managers, 9 additional bookrunners, and 4 co-managers, and Space Exploration Technologies’ 2026 S-1 filing specified 10 joint book-running managers [4][5].
High-profile IPOs often result in very large, multi-tiered syndicates. For major offerings like Anthropic, where Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are identified for the top roles, historical patterns suggest a syndicate structure mirroring Space Exploration Technologies' precedent [4][5][6][7][8]. This arrangement would likely place Goldman and Morgan Stanley at the very top, followed by a group of several universal-bank bookrunners, and then a long tail of co-managers, potentially totaling around 20 other underwriters as reported for Anthropic [4][5][6][7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1424B4sec.gov
  2. 2tm2119783-17_424b4 - none - 49.2815493ssec.gov
  3. 3424B5sec.gov
  4. 4424B4sec.gov
  5. 5Space Exploration Technologies - S-1sec.gov
  6. 6Goldman, Morgan Stanley Take Top Banking Roles in...news.bloomberglaw.com
  7. 7In Anthropic I.P.O., Goldman and Morgan Stanley Slug It...nytimes.com
  8. 8Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Snag Lead Roles in IPOwsj.com

8. To what extent could Anthropic's major corporate investors, such as Google and Amazon, influence the selection of banks like Mizuho or Moelis & Company for the final syndicate?

Anthropic S-1 Filing DateOctober 26, 2026 [1][2]
Mizuho Syndicate StatusListed in 22-bank syndicate [1][3][2][4]
Moelis & Company Syndicate StatusNot listed [1][3][2][4]
Anthropic's S-1 identified lead underwriters and the full syndicate. Anthropic's SEC S-1 filing, dated October 26, 2026, designated Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters for its IPO. The filing also listed a 22-bank syndicate, which included Mizuho. However, Moelis & Company is not listed among this underwriting group. Despite Google and Amazon being major corporate investors, their direct influence on the final selection of banks is considered unlikely, as the underwriting syndicate has been officially documented [1][2][3][4].
Anthropic's governance structure limits direct investor influence on banks. The company's governance grants its founders' Founder LLC 50.1% of general voting power, while the Long-Term Benefit Trust holds authority over Class T directors, who constitute a board majority. The S-1 provides no evidence that either Google or Amazon formally selected banks or possesses explicit authority to appoint IPO underwriters. While their significant investments—Amazon's reported $18 billion and Google's reported $13.3 billion—along with their cloud relationships, carry substantial weight, any practical influence would likely manifest through indirect channels such as existing board relationships or commercial leverage [1][2][3].
Prediction markets indicate strong favor for Mizuho, but not confirmed influence. Around October 27, 2026, prediction market pricing showed a strong preference for Mizuho, with its odds hovering at approximately 91–92%, whereas Moelis & Company was priced significantly lower, around 10–15%. These prices reflect market expectations and trading liquidity, rather than confirmed investor influence or official appointments. For a bank to qualify for resolution in these prediction markets, it must be officially documented in filings as a lead underwriter, book-running manager, or global coordinator; mere participation in a broader syndicate is insufficient. The S-1 excerpt lists Mizuho within the syndicate but does not establish its status as a lead book-runner for this purpose [5][6][7][8][1].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Anthropic, PBC - S-1 (Q2)sec.gov
  2. 2Here's who stands to make money from the Anthropic IPOfinance.yahoo.com
  3. 3Anthropic IPO: Everything to Know About the Company...stocktitan.net
  4. 4Anthropic Filed Its S-1 Today. At $2 Trillion, It Would Be the Biggest IPO in History. Kalshi Is Already Pricing the Underwriters. - Prediction Authoritypredictionauthority.com
  5. 5Which banks will take Anthropic public? (Before Jan 1, 2028): Odds, Chart & News | 4Conservative Predictions4conservative.com
  6. 6Which banks will take Anthropic public? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  7. 7Which banks will take Anthropic public? Odds & Predictions 2028kalshi.com
  8. 8Which banks will take Anthropic public: Odds & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com

9. What publicly available datasets track the co-manager relationships between lead underwriters like Goldman Sachs and other banks like Stifel or William Blair in past tech IPOs?

Primary Data SourceSEC EDGAR filings (424B4 prospectuses, S-1/S-1A) [1]
Structured IPO DataRyxelData's all-U.S.-IPO dataset (1993-present, with lead/co-manager fields) [2]
Role Clarity in FilingsInitial S-1 filings may not distinguish lead/co-manager roles; later amendments or 424B4 filings provide clarity [1][3]
Publicly available datasets identifying co-manager relationships mainly stem from SEC filings. The primary sources for tracking co-manager relationships in past tech IPOs originate from SEC EDGAR filings, specifically final 424B4 prospectuses and S-1/S-1A registration statements. These documents explicitly disclose the underwriting syndicate for an IPO [1]. Specialized tools, such as an SEC-extraction API, can structure these filings into underwriter arrays and enable filtering by bank name to identify participants [1]. Similarly, RyxelData provides a structured dataset covering all U.S. IPOs from 1993 to the present, derived from EDGAR, which includes explicit fields for both lead and co-managers [2]. Additionally, public IPO trackers like IPOScoop list managers for both recent and filed IPOs, often reflecting issuer announcements that clearly label roles, including lead managing bookrunners and co-managers [4][5].
Syndicate structures can evolve, requiring review of final filings for clarity. It is important to note that initial S-1 filings, such as Anthropic's October 26, 2026 S-1, might only list banks in an underwriting table without immediately defining distinct lead-versus-co-manager roles, as the syndicate structure can evolve through later amendments or final 424B4 filings [1][3]. Jay Ritter's resources also offer historical IPO data derived from prospectuses, which are useful for identifying the broader IPO universe, but these are not specifically tailored for ready-made bank-by-bank co-manager network analysis [6][7].
Proprietary commercial databases and academic studies are not directly accessible. While commercial options such as SDC Platinum or Thomson Financial SDC New Issues offer canonical datasets that precisely distinguish manager roles (e.g., lead managers and co-managers), these comprehensive resources are not publicly accessible [8]. Academic studies focusing on IPO syndicates also analyze these structures, typically utilizing SDC and/or prospectus data; however, these published works primarily serve as validation sources and methodological guides for research rather than directly providing public, turnkey datasets for co-manager tracking [9][10][11][12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Registration Statement & Prospectus Data APIsec-api.io
  2. 2IPO Data API — Filings, Pricing & Lockups | RyxelDataryxel.io
  3. 3Anthropic, PBC - S-1 (Q2)sec.gov
  4. 4IPOs Recently Filediposcoop.com
  5. 5UL Solutions Announces Launch of Initial Public Offeringul.com
  6. 6Multiple Bookrunners in IPOs - Websitessite.warrington.ufl.edu
  7. 7Initial Public Offerings: Updated Statisticssite.warrington.ufl.edu
  8. 8Extraction and Cleaning of IPO Data from SDC Platinumevolkova.info
  9. 9Reciprocity in Syndicate Participation and Issuer's Welfare:...onlinelibrary.wiley.com
  10. 10Syndicate Structure and IPO Outcomes: The Impact of...papers.ssrn.com
  11. 11The impact of underwriter roles and syndicate concentrationsciencedirect.com
  12. 12Underwriting Syndicate Structure and Lead Manager...shs.cairn.info

10. What role will the quality of AI sector research coverage from banks like Piper Sandler and Raymond James play in their selection for Anthropic's final syndicate?

Anthropic S-1 Filing DateOctober 2026 [1][2]
Total Underwriting Syndicate Banks22 [1][2]
Lead UnderwritersGoldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley [3][4][5]
Anthropic's S-1 filing revealed a 22-bank IPO underwriting syndicate. In October 2026, Anthropic disclosed its S-1 filing, which confirmed a 22-bank underwriting syndicate for its initial public offering, officially designating Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as the lead underwriters [1][2][3][4][5]. Prior to this disclosure, prediction markets had identified mid-tier banks, including Piper Sandler and Raymond James, as potential syndicate participants, primarily tracking whether they would secure prominent roles such as lead underwriter, book-running manager, or global coordinator [4][6][7]. However, the definitive syndicate structure detailed in the S-1 filing named Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as the leads, with 20 other firms serving as underwriters [3][4][5].
Piper Sandler and Raymond James typically join IPO syndicates as underwriters. Their role in major mega-IPOs like Anthropic's is generally as part of the broader syndicate of underwriters, rather than holding lead book-running manager positions [1][2]. Both firms actively maintain equity research coverage across the artificial intelligence, technology, and semiconductor sectors [1][2]. However, the available information does not specify the precise selection criteria for the syndicate or detail how the quality of Piper Sandler and Raymond James's AI sector research coverage influenced their inclusion in Anthropic's final underwriting group [1][2].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Anthropic IPO filing: 10 numbers from the prospectus - Quartzqz.com
  2. 2Anthropic Filed Its S-1 Today. At $2 Trillion, It Would Be the Biggest IPO in History. Kalshi Is Already Pricing the Underwriters. - Prediction Authoritypredictionauthority.com
  3. 3Which banks will take Anthropic public? — Kalshi Prediction Market Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Which banks will take Anthropic public? (Before Jan 1, 2028): Odds, Chart & News | 4Conservative Predictions4conservative.com
  5. 5Which banks will take Anthropic public? - Probabilidades na Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  6. 6Which banks will take Anthropic public: Odds & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com
  7. 7New Kalshi Markets: Love Island USA S8E2, Anthropic IPO, Trump-Iran Meeting — Past 24 Hours (as of 6:30:22 PM ET, Jun 03)predictionnewsnetwork.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Anthropic has filed a public Form S-1 for an IPO, seeking Nasdaq listing under ticker ANT [1][2][3][4][5]. Goldman Sachs is the lead-left underwriter, and Morgan Stanley is the second lead underwriter/stabilization agent [1][2][3][4][5]. Prediction markets reported by CNBC on October 26, 2026, show 95% odds for a formal IPO announcement by year-end 2026, with 85% for a November 2026 IPO and 93% by January 1, 2027 [6][7]. Targeted trading is expected in mid-November 2026 [8][9]. The S-1 filing, Nasdaq ticker reservation, rapid reported revenue growth, and investor demand serve as bullish catalysts [1][3][6].
The disclosed underwriting syndicate includes Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets, UBS Investment Bank, BMO Capital Markets, BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole CIB, Jefferies, Mizuho, MUFG, Société Générale, TD Securities, BTIG, Cantor, Capital One Securities, and Macquarie Capital [2][8]. Polymarket's lead-bank market, expiring January 1, 2028, indicated Goldman Sachs at 92% implied probability and Morgan Stanley at 7% as of October 27, 2026 [10]. Principal bearish risks involve Anthropic’s large operating losses, high AI-compute and capital requirements, valuation sensitivity, market volatility, and the possibility that SEC review or offering conditions could delay pricing [1][3][6].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 08, 2028
  • Closes: January 01, 2028
Sources (10)
  1. 1Anthropic, PBC - S-1 (Q2)sec.gov
  2. 2Anthropic IPO live updates: AI lab's S-1 filingcnbc.com
  3. 3Anthropic's soaring sales, steep losses put AI frenzy to IPO...reuters.com
  4. 4Goldman, Morgan Stanley Take Top Banking Roles in Anthropic IPOnews.bloomberglaw.com
  5. 5In Anthropic I.P.O., Goldman and Morgan Stanley Slug It...nytimes.com
  6. 6Prediction markets think Anthropic IPO near-certain in 2026cnbc.com
  7. 7When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  8. 8Anthropic pushes ahead with mid-November IPO | IFRifre.com
  9. 9EXCLUSIVE: Anthropic IPO launch shifts toward mid-October, sources say | Reutersreuters.com
  10. 10https://polymarket.com/event/lead-bank-in-anthropics-ipopolymarket.com