Which banks will take Anthropic public?
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Mizuho is favored; Anthropic's October 2026 S-1 confirmed a 22-bank syndicate.
- Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead the confirmed IPO underwriting syndicate.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel Financial | 1.0% | 0.3% | Stifel Financial participates in various capital market transactions, including initial public offerings. |
| Rothschild & Co | 19.0% | 4.3% | Rothschild & Co often advises companies on complex capital market transactions. |
| Mizuho | 92.0% | 69.4% | Mizuho may provide essential advisory and underwriting services for the public offering. |
| Qatalyst Partners | 7.0% | 1.2% | Qatalyst Partners may provide strategic advisory services for a significant public offering. |
| Allen & Company | 5.0% | 1.8% | Allen & Company often advises on capital raising and significant corporate finance activities. |
Current Context
Sources (13)
- 1Anthropic, PBC - S-1 (Q2)sec.gov
- 2Anthropic IPO live updates: AI lab's S-1 filingcnbc.com
- 3Anthropic S-1 Reveals Rapid Growth Ahead of Blockbuster...nytimes.com
- 4Anthropic’s IPO: A close look at AI frontrunner’s rapid growth, spiraling costs By Reutersinvesting.com
- 5Fortune Tech: What Anthropic’s IPO prospectus reveals | Fortunefortune.com
- 6Goldman, Morgan Stanley Take Top Banking Roles in...bloomberg.com
- 7Anthropic's soaring sales, steep losses put AI frenzy to IPO...reuters.com
- 8Goldman Sachs to lead Anthropic's IPO in a SpaceX repeatmarketwatch.com
- 9Goldman, Morgan Stanley Take Top Banking Roles in Anthropic IPOnews.bloomberglaw.com
- 10In which month will Anthropic IPO?polymarket.com
- 11Prediction markets think Anthropic IPO near-certain in 2026cnbc.com
- 12Polymarket Users Make Anthropic IPO Predictionswsj.com
- 13Will Anthropic not IPO before 2028? Polymarket Odds | Vultaxapp.vultax.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Piper Sandler
📉 October 26, 2026: 84.0pp drop
Price decreased from 85.0% to 1.0%
Outcome: Qatalyst Partners
📈 October 24, 2026: 70.0pp spike
Price increased from 17.0% to 87.0%
Sources (5)
- 1Anthropic files S-1 with the SEC for proposed initial public offering \ Anthropicanthropic.com
- 2Anthropic IPO live updates: AI lab's S-1 filingcnbc.com
- 3Goldman, Morgan Stanley Take Top Banking Roles in Anthropic IPOnews.bloomberglaw.com
- 4Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Snag Lead Roles in IPOwsj.com
- 5Anthropic IPO: What should investors consider when valuing the AI company? Aswath Damodaran explains - The Economic Timeseconomictimes.indiatimes.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A YES contract for a specific bank will resolve if that bank is confirmed to be one of the financial institutions that takes Anthropic public as an underwriter or lead bookrunner. Conversely, a NO contract will resolve if the named bank is not involved in Anthropic's initial public offering by December 31, 2027. No other special settlement conditions are explicitly stated.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | $1.00 | $0.50 | 92% |
| Rothschild & Co | $0.50 | $1.00 | 19% |
| Lazard | $0.50 | $1.00 | 18% |
| Centerview | $0.17 | $1.00 | 13% |
| Perella Weinberg Partners | $0.50 | $1.00 | 12% |
| Greenhill & Co | $1.00 | $0.90 | 11% |
| PJT Partners | $0.50 | $1.00 | 11% |
| Moelis & Company | $0.50 | $1.00 | 10% |
| Qatalyst Partners | $0.18 | $1.00 | 7% |
| Allen & Company | $0.11 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Raymond James | $0.79 | $1.00 | 5% |
| William Blair | $0.84 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Evercore | $0.09 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Piper Sandler | $0.83 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Stifel Financial | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Anthropic's S-1 filing names Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and Morgan Stanley as the two top underwriters, with Goldman Sachs listed first in the conventional lead-left position among a syndicate of 22 firms [1]. This positioning is reflected in financial press and prediction markets, where Goldman Sachs held an approximate 92% implied probability as the lead bank on Polymarket as of October 27, 2026, significantly ahead of Morgan Stanley's 7% [2].
5. Trust Index
“Allen & Company” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.
Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves
Market integrity is low (67), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. How do Qatalyst Partners and Evercore's recent track records compare for participating in tech IPOs with valuations over $50 billion?
| Evercore Capital Advised | More than $100 billion [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Evercore Largest Listed Transaction | Grab's $40 billion transaction [1] |
| Qatalyst Largest M&A Deal | Ansys/Synopsys ($34.8 billion) [4][5][6][7] |
7. What does historical data from IPOs led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley since 2021 reveal about the typical size and composition of their underwriting syndicates?
| Typical Joint Book-Running Managers | 3–4 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Life Time 2021 Deal Syndicate | 9 joint bookrunners plus 7 co-managers [1][4] |
| SpaceX 2026 S-1 Joint Book-Running Managers | 10 [5][4] |
Sources (8)
- 1424B4sec.gov
- 2tm2119783-17_424b4 - none - 49.2815493ssec.gov
- 3424B5sec.gov
- 4424B4sec.gov
- 5Space Exploration Technologies - S-1sec.gov
- 6Goldman, Morgan Stanley Take Top Banking Roles in...news.bloomberglaw.com
- 7In Anthropic I.P.O., Goldman and Morgan Stanley Slug It...nytimes.com
- 8Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Snag Lead Roles in IPOwsj.com
8. To what extent could Anthropic's major corporate investors, such as Google and Amazon, influence the selection of banks like Mizuho or Moelis & Company for the final syndicate?
| Anthropic S-1 Filing Date | October 26, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Mizuho Syndicate Status | Listed in 22-bank syndicate [1][3][2][4] |
| Moelis & Company Syndicate Status | Not listed [1][3][2][4] |
Sources (8)
- 1Anthropic, PBC - S-1 (Q2)sec.gov
- 2Here's who stands to make money from the Anthropic IPOfinance.yahoo.com
- 3Anthropic IPO: Everything to Know About the Company...stocktitan.net
- 4Anthropic Filed Its S-1 Today. At $2 Trillion, It Would Be the Biggest IPO in History. Kalshi Is Already Pricing the Underwriters. - Prediction Authoritypredictionauthority.com
- 5Which banks will take Anthropic public? (Before Jan 1, 2028): Odds, Chart & News | 4Conservative Predictions4conservative.com
- 6Which banks will take Anthropic public? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 7Which banks will take Anthropic public? Odds & Predictions 2028kalshi.com
- 8Which banks will take Anthropic public: Odds & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com
9. What publicly available datasets track the co-manager relationships between lead underwriters like Goldman Sachs and other banks like Stifel or William Blair in past tech IPOs?
| Primary Data Source | SEC EDGAR filings (424B4 prospectuses, S-1/S-1A) [1] |
|---|---|
| Structured IPO Data | RyxelData's all-U.S.-IPO dataset (1993-present, with lead/co-manager fields) [2] |
| Role Clarity in Filings | Initial S-1 filings may not distinguish lead/co-manager roles; later amendments or 424B4 filings provide clarity [1][3] |
Sources (12)
- 1Registration Statement & Prospectus Data APIsec-api.io
- 2IPO Data API — Filings, Pricing & Lockups | RyxelDataryxel.io
- 3Anthropic, PBC - S-1 (Q2)sec.gov
- 4IPOs Recently Filediposcoop.com
- 5UL Solutions Announces Launch of Initial Public Offeringul.com
- 6Multiple Bookrunners in IPOs - Websitessite.warrington.ufl.edu
- 7Initial Public Offerings: Updated Statisticssite.warrington.ufl.edu
- 8Extraction and Cleaning of IPO Data from SDC Platinumevolkova.info
- 9Reciprocity in Syndicate Participation and Issuer's Welfare:...onlinelibrary.wiley.com
- 10Syndicate Structure and IPO Outcomes: The Impact of...papers.ssrn.com
- 11The impact of underwriter roles and syndicate concentrationsciencedirect.com
- 12Underwriting Syndicate Structure and Lead Manager...shs.cairn.info
10. What role will the quality of AI sector research coverage from banks like Piper Sandler and Raymond James play in their selection for Anthropic's final syndicate?
| Anthropic S-1 Filing Date | October 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Total Underwriting Syndicate Banks | 22 [1][2] |
| Lead Underwriters | Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley [3][4][5] |
Sources (7)
- 1Anthropic IPO filing: 10 numbers from the prospectus - Quartzqz.com
- 2Anthropic Filed Its S-1 Today. At $2 Trillion, It Would Be the Biggest IPO in History. Kalshi Is Already Pricing the Underwriters. - Prediction Authoritypredictionauthority.com
- 3Which banks will take Anthropic public? — Kalshi Prediction Market Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 4Which banks will take Anthropic public? (Before Jan 1, 2028): Odds, Chart & News | 4Conservative Predictions4conservative.com
- 5Which banks will take Anthropic public? - Probabilidades na Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 6Which banks will take Anthropic public: Odds & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com
- 7New Kalshi Markets: Love Island USA S8E2, Anthropic IPO, Trump-Iran Meeting — Past 24 Hours (as of 6:30:22 PM ET, Jun 03)predictionnewsnetwork.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2028
- Closes: January 01, 2028
Sources (10)
- 1Anthropic, PBC - S-1 (Q2)sec.gov
- 2Anthropic IPO live updates: AI lab's S-1 filingcnbc.com
- 3Anthropic's soaring sales, steep losses put AI frenzy to IPO...reuters.com
- 4Goldman, Morgan Stanley Take Top Banking Roles in Anthropic IPOnews.bloomberglaw.com
- 5In Anthropic I.P.O., Goldman and Morgan Stanley Slug It...nytimes.com
- 6Prediction markets think Anthropic IPO near-certain in 2026cnbc.com
- 7When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 8Anthropic pushes ahead with mid-November IPO | IFRifre.com
- 9EXCLUSIVE: Anthropic IPO launch shifts toward mid-October, sources say | Reutersreuters.com
- 10https://polymarket.com/event/lead-bank-in-anthropics-ipopolymarket.com