Short Answer

Paramount+ app downloads in September 2026 are expected to exceed 79, despite company projections for flat sequential subscriber growth in Q3 2026 and reports of persistent app technical instability during that quarter (market 98.0%).

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The 41-point price spike to 98.0% around September 18 does not have a clear catalyst in the available information. Research does not identify a specific content release or a confirmed download surge that coincides with the market moving from 57.0%. The jump occurred on what appears to be zero trading volume, which can suggest a re-pricing in an illiquid market rather than a reaction to a widely digested news event.
Prior to the spike, the market reflected broad uncertainty driven by conflicting public estimates for Paramount+ app downloads. September iOS estimates varied widely, from 880,000 to 3.6 million for the month. At the same time, Android downloads were estimated near 18,333 daily, with some reports noting a downward trend in the preceding months. This mixed data likely anchored the market in the 57% to 60% range seen earlier in September.
  • Paramount+ app downloads above 79 are favored, driven by its September live sports schedule.
  • FCC approval of the Paramount-Warner acquisition likely spurred public interest for September downloads.
  • Persistent app technical instability and flat growth may constrain higher September download numbers.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 79 98.0% 96.9% Persistent app technical instability and projected flat subscriber growth suggest downward pressure on downloads.
Above 91 34.0% 25.1% Persistent app technical instability and projected flat subscriber growth suggest downward pressure on downloads.
Above 82 90.0% 85.2% Persistent app technical instability and projected flat subscriber growth suggest downward pressure on downloads.
Above 88 58.0% 47.1% Persistent app technical instability and projected flat subscriber growth suggest downward pressure on downloads.
Above 87 53.0% 47.1% Persistent app technical instability and projected flat subscriber growth suggest downward pressure on downloads.

Current Context

Paramount+ app download estimates vary, influencing an active prediction market. App download estimates for mid-September 2026 show iOS downloads ranging from 880k to 3.6M per month, while combined Android estimates suggest approximately 18,333 daily downloads [1][2][3][4]. Some sources indicate a downward trend in Android downloads in recent months [2]. A prediction market on Kalshi, active as of September 5, 2026, shows a 56% probability that September 2026 Paramount+ app downloads will be above 84 (relative to the previous year's baseline); the market resolves on October 8, 2026 [5]. Federal Reserve researchers characterize Kalshi as a continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark for macroeconomic expectations [6][7]. Retrieved sources do not state a September 2026 Paramount+ app-download total, rank, or growth percentage from Sensor Tower, Appfigures, Nasdaq Data Link, or IEX Cloud, making a precise download estimate speculative [8][9][10].
Paramount+ revenue and subscriber growth face technical issues and strategic adjustments. Paramount Skydance reported Q2 2026 revenue of $6.9 billion and added 2 million subscribers, reaching 81.6 million total worldwide [8][11]. The company projects Q3 2026 revenue between $6.8 billion and $7.0 billion, with subscriber counts expected to remain flat sequentially [8]. Paramount’s 2026 outlook is approximately $30 billion in total revenue, with Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) as the primary growth driver [9][10]. Management expects healthy underlying Paramount+ subscriber growth but only modestly higher reported paid subscribers after exiting an estimated 4–5 million hard-bundle subscribers [9][10]. September programming includes UEFA, NFL simulcasts, UFC 331, and Paramount+’s first premium live boxing event on September 12 [8]. Product improvements have made Smart TV app startup times 66% faster [8]. Expert and user sentiment in 2026 points to technical challenges with the Paramount+ app, particularly on Android devices, where users have reported crashes, black screens, and performance regressions following mid-year updates [12][13]. Historical expert view from Q1 2022 noted Paramount+ had a 36% share of users subscribed for over a year, and S&P analysts described bundling as strategically useful in India [14][15].
FCC approved foreign financing for the Paramount Skydance acquisition. On September 17, 2026, the FCC approved Paramount Skydance's request to allow foreign financing exceeding 25% for its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery [16]. This approval permits up to 100% indirect foreign equity interest, including significant investments from sovereign wealth funds in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar [16][17].
Sources (17)
  1. 1Paramount+ — Revenue, Net Worth & Teardown (2026 Estimate)appcurrents.com
  2. 2Paramount Global App Downloads: ~18.3K/Day & Growth Trends 2026 | AltIndexaltindex.com
  3. 3Paramount+ Android Analyticsappgoblin.info
  4. 4Paramount+ Android Analyticsappgoblin.info
  5. 5Paramount+ App Downloads in September - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  6. 6The Fed - Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Marketsfederalreserve.gov
  7. 7Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Marketsfederalreserve.gov
  8. 8Ex 99_Q2'26sec.gov
  9. 9Tm2533570d72 dfan14a.htmsec.gov
  10. 10https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2041610/000110465926019772/tm2533570d71_exa5am.htmsec.gov
  11. 11Paramount+ Added 2 Million Subscribers As Paramount Saw Revenue Jump to $6.9 Billion In The 2nd Quarter of 2026 | Cord Cutters Newscordcuttersnews.com
  12. 12Paramount+ Not Working? 149 Reviews Show Why (2026) | Unstarunstar.app
  13. 13Paramount+ Review 2026: Honest Look Before You Downloadappviewable.com
  14. 14SVOD service subscription length and use, Q1'22spglobal.com
  15. 15Paramount+ best served in a Voot bundle for India launch, analysts sayspglobal.com
  16. 16FCC Says Paramount-Warner Acquisition’s Foreign Financing Serves Public Interest - Bloombergbloomberg.com
  17. 17FCC lets Paramount sell 49.5% equity stake to Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar - Ars Technicaarstechnica.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 82

📈 September 18, 2026: 65.0pp spike

Price increased from 25.0% to 90.0%

What happened: Based on the provided research, the primary driver for the 65.0 percentage point market spike in "Paramount+ App Downloads in September" on September 18, 2026, cannot be definitively identified. There is no record of a major content event or specific download spike occurring on that date [1]. Furthermore, no publicly available SEC filing or official company report confirmed a 65.0pp spike in Paramount+ app downloads on September 18, 2026 [2]. The available information does not indicate any social media activity, such as posts from key figures or viral narratives, that would explain the sudden price movement. Therefore, social media was not identified as a primary driver or contributing accelerant from the given sources.

Outcome: Above 83

📉 September 14, 2026: 29.0pp drop

Price decreased from 51.0% to 22.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 29.0 percentage point drop in the "Paramount+ App Downloads in September" prediction market on September 14, 2026, could not be definitively identified. No major news or social media catalyst was found that caused this specific drop in Paramount+ app downloads on that date [3][4][5][6][7]. While Paramount Skydance's 2026 strategy involves exiting certain hard bundle subscribers to prioritize ARPU [2][8][9][10][11], this long-term strategy is not explicitly linked to a sudden 29.0pp decline in app downloads on September 14, 2026. Therefore, social media was mostly noise or irrelevant, as no specific posts or viral narratives correlating with the price movement were identified.

Outcome: Above 87

📈 September 13, 2026: 13.0pp spike

Price increased from 17.0% to 30.0%

What happened: The reported 13.0 percentage point spike in the "Paramount+ App Downloads in September" prediction market on September 13, 2026, could not be independently verified from the available sources, nor was a threshold of "Above 87" confirmed [12][5][3][13]. No reliable social media activity, including posts from key figures or viral narratives, was found to coincide with or drive the unconfirmed price change on that date [12][14]. While Paramount+ scheduled a premium live boxing event for September 12, 2026, there is no evidence this event directly caused a market spike on the subsequent day [2]. Therefore, social media appears irrelevant, as no related activity or external driver for the unconfirmed market movement was identified.

📉 September 09, 2026: 13.0pp drop

Price decreased from 49.0% to 36.0%

What happened: The provided web research does not indicate a 13.0 percentage point drop in the "Paramount+ App Downloads in September" prediction market on September 09, 2026 [4-13]. There is no evidence in the available sources, including SEC filings, of a 13.0pp drop in Paramount+ app downloads for September 2026 or any specific catalyst on that date [4-13]. As such, without evidence of the described price movement occurring, it is not possible to identify a primary driver, including social media activity, for such an event. Social media activity cannot be identified as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or even noise, as the underlying event is not supported by the provided information.

Outcome: Above 84

📉 September 06, 2026: 40.0pp drop

Price decreased from 52.0% to 12.0%

What happened: Research does not identify a specific primary driver for the reported 40.0 percentage point drop in the "Paramount+ App Downloads in September" prediction market on September 6, 2026. No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives, nor any traditional news reports or official announcements, are linked to such a significant decline on that specific date [15]. While third-party app analytics in early September 2026 indicated a general trend of declining Paramount+ downloads, including a 37% drop in 30-day installs, these reports are not tied to a sudden, market-moving event on September 6 [16][4]. Given the lack of specific external catalysts, any such movement would likely be attributed to general market volatility within the prediction platform [15]. Social media activity was irrelevant to this reported price movement.
Sources (16)
  1. 1Report: UFC Freedom 250 at the White House Drove a 276% Spike in Paramount+ Downloads | Cord Cutters Newscordcuttersnews.com
  2. 2Ex 99_Q2'26sec.gov
  3. 3Paramount+ by CBS Interactive, Inc. — install & rank tracking · AppDashboardappdashboard.app
  4. 4Paramount Global App Downloads: ~18.3K/Day & Growth Trends 2026 | AltIndexaltindex.com
  5. 5Paramount+ — Revenue, Net Worth & Teardown (2026 Estimate)appcurrents.com
  6. 6Paramount+ Android Analyticsappgoblin.info
  7. 7Paramount+ Android Analyticsappgoblin.info
  8. 8Tm2533570d71 exa5am.htmsec.gov
  9. 9Tm2533570d72 dfan14a.htmsec.gov
  10. 10https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2041610/000110465926019772/tm2533570d71_exa5am.htmsec.gov
  11. 11Documentsec.gov
  12. 12Paramount+ App Downloads in September - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  13. 13Paramount+ Revenue & Downloads (August 2026) · Peeklypeekly.app
  14. 14Paramount+ Jumps to #3 App Store Rank on Back of UFC Deal, NFL, and New Originals | MWMmwm.ai
  15. 15Game 3: Odd/Even Total Kills? — 90% | Orrery market check | Orreryorrery.me
  16. 16Paramount+ by ViacomCBS Streaming — install & rank tracking · AppDashboardappdashboard.app

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "YES" if Paramount+ app downloads in September are above 87 million, and "NO" if they are 87 million or less. Trading for this market begins on October 7, 12:00 am EDT. The contract is based on the total number of Paramount+ app downloads in September, measured in millions.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 79 $0.98 $0.43 98%
Above 82 $0.98 $0.61 90%
Above 84 $0.98 $0.53 75%
Above 83 $0.98 $0.47 66%
Above 88 $0.60 $0.98 58%
Above 87 $0.59 $0.76 53%
Above 91 $0.96 $0.99 34%
Above 85 $0.98 $0.78 20%
Above 86 $0.69 $0.84 14%

Market Discussion

Traders are actively discussing and forecasting Paramount+ app downloads for September, with a clear upward trend in market expectations observed recently. The market currently leans slightly towards downloads being above 87 million, with the "Above 87" contract showing a 53-61% chance for "Yes." Notably, contracts for downloads exceeding 87 and 88 million have seen significant increases in their implied probabilities, indicating growing optimism among traders for higher download figures.

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 70 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score78Good

Market integrity is low (67), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score38High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score70Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
67Caution

Outcome can be influenced

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“Above 79” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
45Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

9 contracts · worst first

Above 8832
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 7937
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 8338
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 8763
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 84% vs realized 5%
Above 8464
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 66% vs realized 2%
Above 8272
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 143% vs realized 2%
Above 91—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 85—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 86—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
80Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

9 contracts · worst first

Above 8359
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 7d

Above 8263
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 24h

Above 8473
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 7d

Above 8873
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 3d

Above 8775
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Above 7989
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 4d

Above 91—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Above 85—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Above 86—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

9 contracts · worst first

Above 79100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 82100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 84100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 83100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 88100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 87100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 91100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 85100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 86100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
38High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 47 (notional-weighted across 6 scored legs)

$100 order: 20.5c slippage (~26% of a 77.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Above 79Primary37Market scoreLiquidity37Move quality89Rule clarity100
Why 37
Liquidity
37 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
89 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 4d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 8272Market scoreLiquidity72Move quality63Rule clarity100
Why 72
Liquidity
72 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 143% vs realized 2%
Move quality
63 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 8464Market scoreLiquidity64Move quality73Rule clarity100
Why 64
Liquidity
64 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 66% vs realized 2%
Move quality
73 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 7d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 8338Market scoreLiquidity38Move quality59Rule clarity100
Why 38
Liquidity
38 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
59 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 7d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 8832Market scoreLiquidity32Move quality73Rule clarity100
Why 32
Liquidity
32 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
73 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 8763Market scoreLiquidity63Move quality75Rule clarity100
Why 63
Liquidity
63 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 84% vs realized 5%
Move quality
75 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 91–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 85–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 86–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 19, 2026

6. What impact did Paramount+'s September 2026 live sports schedule, featuring the NFL and UFC 331, likely have on new app downloads?

UFC 331 DateSeptember 19, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]
Probability of Download Increase57% (as of September 8, 2026) [6][7][8]
Projected Download GrowthExceed previous year's levels by at least 79% [6][7][8]
Paramount+ strategically leverages live sports, including NFL and UFC, for growth. The platform utilizes its live sports content, particularly the NFL on CBS and UFC events, as a primary strategy to acquire new subscribers and enhance app engagement [9][4]. UFC 331, featuring a flyweight title rematch between Joshua Van and Alexandre Pantoja, is officially slated for September 19, 2026, at the Crypto.com Arena, with Paramount+ serving as a key streaming platform for the event [1][2][3][4][5]. The NFL teams are recognized as a distinct and valuable asset for reaching audiences within the current streaming environment [10].
Live sports are projected to significantly boost Paramount+ app downloads. This strategic emphasis on its live sports portfolio is expected to contribute to increased app downloads. As of September 8, 2026, prediction markets indicated a 57% probability that Paramount+ app downloads for September 2026 would exceed the previous year's levels by at least 79% [6][7][8]. The platform's consistent utilization of its live sports events, specifically NFL on CBS and UFC events, is integral to driving both app engagement and new subscriber acquisition [9][4].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Crypto.com UFC 331 | UFCufc.com
  2. 2UFC 331 official for Sept. 19 in Los Angelesmmajunkie.usatoday.com
  3. 3How to watch UFC 331: Start time, live stream & full fight cardsherdog.com
  4. 4UFC 331 -- Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja: Fight card, date, odds, rumors, complete guide - CBS Sportscbssports.com
  5. 5UFC 331 fight card, start time, date and location | Van vs. Pantoja 2 | MMA Maniammamania.com
  6. 6Paramount+ App Downloads in September - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  7. 7Box Office / Streaming | Prediction Markets | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  8. 8Paramount+ App Downloads in September - Cotes Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  9. 9Watch UFC Fight Night Kurtis Campbell vs. Danny Silva (UFC...paramountplus.com
  10. 10NFL Teams Are 10 Times Scarcer Than America's Landfillsyoutube.com

7. What do Q3 2026 user reviews from the Google Play and Apple App Stores reveal about the Paramount+ app's technical stability and performance?

Q3 2026 App InstabilityPersistent technical instability reported on Android, including crashes, black screens, freezing, and playback failures [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Regression Build DateJuly 21, 2026 (version 16.16.0) identified as a significant source of negative feedback [1][5][7]
September 2026 Download Forecast57% likelihood of exceeding 79% of previous year's download volume [8][9][10]
Paramount+ experienced persistent technical issues in Q3 2026, particularly on Android devices. User reviews from Google Play and Apple App Stores frequently reported problems such as app crashes, black screens, freezing, and failures in playback [1][2][3][4][5][6]. A specific regression was observed in the July 21, 2026, build (version 16.16.0), which led to a substantial increase in negative user feedback regarding the app's performance [1][5][7].
Prediction markets are actively assessing Paramount+ app downloads for September 2026. As of September 2026, participants in Kalshi's prediction markets are pricing the probability of Paramount+ app downloads surpassing 79% of the previous year's volume at approximately 57% [8][9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Paramount+ Not Working? 149 Reviews Show Why (2026) | Unstarunstar.app
  2. 2Paramount+ Review 2026: Honest Look Before You Downloadappviewable.com
  3. 3Paramount+ – Apps on Google Playplay.google.com
  4. 4Paramount+ - Apps on Google Playplay.google.com
  5. 5Paramount+ Not Working? 149 Reviews Show Why (2026) | Unstarunstar.app
  6. 6Why Does Paramount Plus Keep Freezing and How to Fix It? – WHYS.videowhys.video
  7. 7Paramount+ Not Working? 149 Reviews Show Why (2026) | Unstarunstar.app
  8. 8Paramount+ App Downloads in September - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  9. 9Box Office / Streaming | Prediction Markets | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  10. 10Paramount+ App Downloads in September - Cotes Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

8. How did the exclusive content offerings on Paramount+ in September 2026 stack up against those from key competitors like Peacock and Max?

Exclusive content comparisonNot available for September 2026 (Current search results [1][2][3])
Paramount+ download market resolutionOctober 8, 2026 (Carbon Arc [1][3])
Paramount+ app download probability56% chance downloads > 84 in Sept 2026 (Kalshi [1][2][3])
Comparative analysis of exclusive content for September 2026 is unavailable. The available research does not currently contain a specific comparative analysis of exclusive content offerings for Paramount+, Peacock, and Max for September 2026. Information detailing how these platforms' exclusive content stacked up against each other during that particular period is not present in the existing data [1][2][3].
Paramount+ app download prediction markets provide relevant insights. While direct comparisons of exclusive content are absent, related market activity offers insight into Paramount+'s projected performance. The prediction market concerning Paramount+ app downloads for September 2026 is scheduled to resolve on October 8, 2026, based on data from Carbon Arc [1][3]. Furthermore, as of September 5, 2026, prediction markets hosted on Kalshi assigned a 56% probability that Paramount+ app downloads for September 2026 would exceed 84 [1][2][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Paramount+ App Downloads in September - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2Box Office / Streaming | Prediction Markets | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3Paramount+ App Downloads in September - Cotes Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

9. What are the primary third-party data sources for Paramount+ app downloads, and what explains the discrepancies in their September 2026 estimates?

Primary Data Source for MarketCarbon Arc [1][2]
Market Resolution DateOctober 8, 2026 [1][2]
Market FocusParamount+ App Downloads in September 2026 [1][2]
Carbon Arc is the designated data source for Paramount+ app download predictions. The Kalshi prediction market concerning Paramount+ app downloads for September 2026 is slated for settlement using data provided by Carbon Arc [1][2]. The resolution of this market is scheduled for October 8, 2026, and will be based on the initial value reported by Carbon Arc [1][2]. The research material made available does not identify any additional primary third-party data sources for Paramount+ app downloads.
App download estimate discrepancies arise from varied data collection methods. Third-party app download estimates often show discrepancies primarily due to differences in data collection methodologies, such as relying on panel-based extrapolation compared to direct SDK integration [1][2]. These variations can also stem from differing definitions of what constitutes a 'download,' distinguishing between first-time installations and re-installs, and variations in geographic or platform coverage [1][2]. The provided research outlines these general explanations for discrepancies but does not offer specific details regarding any discrepancies in September 2026 estimates from diverse sources [1][2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1Paramount+ App Downloads in September - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2Paramount+ App Downloads in September - Cotes Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

10. To what extent did the September 17 FCC approval for the Paramount Skydance acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery influence media coverage and public interest in Paramount+?

FCC approval dateSeptember 17, 2026 [1][2]
Foreign investment allowedExceeding 25% [1][3][2]
App downloads impactNo immediate evidence of surge or decline (as of September 19, 2026) [1][2]
The FCC approved significant foreign investment in the Paramount-Warner acquisition. On September 17, 2026, the Federal Communications Commission granted Paramount Skydance's request to allow foreign investment exceeding 25% in its planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, concluding that such foreign financing benefits the public interest [1][3][2]. This regulatory approval included stringent conditions, explicitly forbidding foreign investors from holding voting stock, impacting content decisions, influencing company management, or accessing non-public data pertaining to U.S. citizens [1][2].
No immediate surge in Paramount+ app downloads was observed post-approval. As of September 19, 2026, two days after the regulatory milestone, available information does not show immediate evidence linking the September 17, 2026, FCC approval to a measurable increase or decrease in Paramount+ application downloads [1][2]. While media coverage did include references to a "Paramount Skyance takeover of Warner Brothers Discovery" and an analyst's commentary on the matter [4], the current research does not contain sufficient data to ascertain the full extent to which this particular FCC approval influenced broader media coverage or public interest in Paramount+ [1][2].
Broader influence on public interest in Paramount+ remains undetermined. A prediction market is currently active concerning "Paramount+ App Downloads in September" and is slated to resolve on October 8, 2026 [5][6][7]. However, based on the facts provided, the specific impact of the FCC approval on these app download metrics and overall public interest cannot be fully determined at this time [1][2].
Sources (7)
  1. 1US FCC approves foreign investment in Paramount Warner merger deal | Reutersreuters.com
  2. 2FCC approves foreign owners for a merged Paramount-Warner Bros. - Los Angeles Timeslatimes.com
  3. 3FCC Says Paramount-Warner Acquisition’s Foreign Financing Serves Public Interest - Bloombergbloomberg.com
  4. 4Daybreak Holiday: Apple's New CEO, Oracle Earnings, Paramount Deal | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
  5. 5Paramount+ App Downloads in September - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  6. 6Box Office / Streaming | Prediction Markets | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  7. 7Paramount+ App Downloads in September - Cotes Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key catalysts for Paramount Global include the Skydance merger [1]. The Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition lawsuit has a potential March 2027 trial date, with a $7M/day ticking fee starting in October 2026 [1]. Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery is expected to close by the end of the third quarter of 2026, with a per-share ticking fee for WBD stockholders commencing for any delay past September 30, 2026 [2]. Paramount Global's Q3 2026 guidance projects revenue of $6.95B–$7.15B and adjusted EBITDA of $875M–$975M [3][4][5].
Bullish factors include streaming profitability growth and efficiency programs [6][7][4]. Bearish risks involve linear TV declines, intense streaming competition, and the potential for the WBD acquisition to be delayed or fail [6][7][4]. September 2026 catalysts for Paramount+ include the launch of Avatar Aang: The Last Airbender, the third season of Lioness, the return of MobLand, and a live sports lineup featuring NFL simulcasts, UEFA, UFC 331, and the platform's first premium live boxing event on September 12 [3]. Paramount Global's 2026 financial strategy prioritizes accelerating Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) revenue growth and ARPU over raw subscriber counts, with a total revenue target of $30 billion for the year [8][3][9]. Paramount+ subscriber growth is expected to be flattish sequentially following Q2 gains [3][4][5].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: October 15, 2026
  • Closes: October 08, 2026
Sources (9)
  1. 1Paramount Skydance (PSKY) - Fundamental Analysis Report 2026 (Updated)deepresearchglobal.com
  2. 2R8.htmsec.gov
  3. 3Ex 99_Q2'26sec.gov
  4. 4Paramount Streaming Profit Climbs 44% to $366 Million in Q2 - TheWrapthewrap.com
  5. 5Paramount+ Added 2 Million Subscribers As Paramount Saw Revenue Jump to $6.9 Billion In The 2nd Quarter of 2026 | Cord Cutters Newscordcuttersnews.com
  6. 6https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2041610/000110465926019772/tm2533570d71_exa5am.htmsec.gov
  7. 7Paramount PARA Q2 2026 Earnings Preview — Skydance Merger Streamingalphagridhub.com
  8. 8Tm2533570d72 dfan14a.htmsec.gov
  9. 9Documentsec.gov

13. Related News

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Last updated: September 19, 2026, 12:36 UTC

FCC Approval for Paramount-Warner Deal Lifts Streaming Download Bets

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14. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 6 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 6 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXPARAMOUNTAPP-26SEP07-T85: NO (Sep 07, 2026)
  • KXPARAMOUNTAPP-26SEP07-T99: NO (Sep 07, 2026)
  • KXPARAMOUNTAPP-26SEP07-T95: NO (Sep 07, 2026)
  • KXPARAMOUNTAPP-26SEP07-T92: NO (Sep 07, 2026)
  • KXPARAMOUNTAPP-26SEP07-T88: NO (Sep 07, 2026)