30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 25, 2026?
Short Answer
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is likely to hold at 5.32% or above on September 25, 2026, following its push towards 5.44% on September 24 amid a bearish market backdrop, recent high-yield auction results, and hawkish monetary policy expectations; the market prices this at 91.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market's decisive move was a 72 percentage point spike on September 23, 2026. The move was reportedly driven by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, which created significant upward pressure on the underlying 30-year Treasury yield. The actual yield rose from 5.35% to 5.40% by September 23 and hit an intraday high of 5.444% on September 24, its highest level since 2004. The prediction market's re-pricing reflects this fundamental shift in the bond market.
Other large price swings flagged on September 19 and September 22 appear to be data errors or market artifacts, not reactions to news. The context suggests a reported 23-point drop on September 22 was a unit error, as the actual yield moved only about 2 basis points. Similarly, a reported move on September 19, a Saturday when bond markets are closed, is inconsistent with market mechanics and lacks any documented catalyst.
- Yield likely 5.3% or above, pushed by Sep 24 movement towards 5.44%.
- Elevated yields reflect a bearish market backdrop and hawkish monetary policy expectations.
- Yields above 5.40% are supported by the Sep 23 official figure and recent auctions.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.32% or above | 91.0% | 95.9% | The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield was pushed towards 5.44% on September 24, 2026. |
| 5.34% or above | 31.0% | 92.3% | The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield was pushed towards 5.44% on September 24, 2026. |
| 5.3% or above | 79.0% | 95.9% | The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield was pushed towards 5.44% on September 24, 2026. |
| 5.36% or above | 84.0% | 92.3% | The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield was pushed towards 5.44% on September 24, 2026. |
| 5.38% or above | 66.0% | 86.6% | The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield was pushed towards 5.44% on September 24, 2026. |
Current Context
Official 30-year Treasury yield for September 25, 2026, remains unobserved. The US Treasury's daily yield-curve data currently runs through September 23, 2026 [1]. The 30-year constant-maturity Treasury yield recorded 5.29% on September 17, 2026, according to FRED [2]. More recently, the yield increased from 5.35% on September 16, 2026, to 5.40% by September 23, 2026 [1]. Intraday trading on September 24, 2026, saw the yield reach 5.444%, marking its highest level since 2004 [1]. This trajectory indicates the 30-year yield is trading at or near multi-decade highs around 5.4%+ entering September 25, 2026 [1]. Long-term Treasury yields overall have reached levels not observed since 2007 [3].
Prediction markets imply a high probability for yields above 5.20% on September 25. The Kalshi-linked market reports a 98% implied probability for the 30-year yield to settle at 5.20% or above for September 25, with settlement based on the U.S. Treasury par yield [4]. This market is structured around thresholds roughly above 5.15%–5.26% [4]. Another September prediction market indicated a 100% implied probability for the 30-year yield to reach at least 5.30% at some point during the month, though this does not specify the September 25 closing yield [5]. Forecast anchors for the 30-year yield range from 5.34% (current) to a September average of 5.37%, moving to 5.40% at year-end [4][6][7][2]. The Financial Forecast Center projects a 5.37% average for September 2026, 5.41% for October, and 5.48% for December [7]. Convex provides a broader 68% year-end range of 4.60%–6.19% [6].
Recent Federal Reserve policy and economic data are driving higher long-term yields. The FOMC, following its September 16, 2026, meeting, raised the federal-funds target by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% [8][1]. Interest on reserve balances increased to 3.90% effective September 17 [1]. Official projections and institutional commentary from BBVA and PIMCO suggest at least one, possibly two, additional rate hikes are plausible [8][9][10][11]. New York Fed President Williams stated another increase this year remains a reasonable possibility, with markets pricing approximately 71% probability for a quarter-point increase in October and roughly three hikes this cycle [1]. The global government bond sell-off intensified on September 24, fueled by stronger-than-expected S&P Global September PMIs, hawkish Fed commentary, a weak five-year auction, and Brent crude prices above $100 amidst US–Iran tensions [1]. Persistent inflation concerns, large-scale Treasury supply, fiscal deficits, and AI-related borrowing are also cited as forces for higher yields [12][8][9][10][3][13][1]. BCA Research's chief investment strategist suggests the yield move is nearing its end, driven more by the Iran conflict, indicating the 10-year yield could settle below 5% at 4.6%–4.7% if war risks abate [1]. Standard Chartered anticipates the 10-year yield could reach 5.5% over the next year [1]. Scheduled events for September 25, 2026, include the Trump–Xi summit, jobless claims, new home sales, and speeches by Fed officials Hammack and Paulson [1].
Sources (13)
- 1www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
- 2Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant...fred.stlouisfed.org
- 3Treasury yields jump 24 bps as the Fed weighs a rate hike. - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 430Y US Treasury yield on Sep 25, 2026? - Quote su Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 5How High Will the 30-Year Treasury Yield Go in September? Odds | Lines.comlines.com
- 630Y Treasury Yield Forecast 2026 | Convexconvextrade.com
- 730 Year U.S. Treasury Bond Rate Forecastforecasts.org
- 8Macro Signposts | A Recalibration, Not a Rate-Hike Cycle | PIMCOpimco.com
- 9Fed delivers hike one, signals onebbvaresearch.com
- 10September Fed Meeting: From Signals to Action | Lord Abbettlordabbett.com
- 11The Fed - September 16, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible versionfederalreserve.gov
- 12Fortem Financial | Weekly Market Commentary - Week Ending September 25, 2026fortemfin.com
- 13Transcript of Ellen Correia Golay on the Macro Musings Podcast - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORKnewyorkfed.org
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 5.44% or above
📈 September 24, 2026: 23.0pp spike
Price increased from 17.0% to 40.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the prediction market's 23.0 percentage point spike was a convergence of traditional news and market structure factors on September 24, 2026, that pushed the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield towards 5.44%. Stronger-than-expected U.S. September business-activity data increased expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes, while rising energy prices due to geopolitical conflict added inflation pressure [1][2][3]. A weak five-year Treasury auction and concerns over government debt further undermined demand [1][2][3]. These factors led to a global bond selloff, causing the 30-year yield to reach 5.444% intraday, its highest since 2004, thus increasing the probability of the "5.44% or above" outcome [1][4][2]. Based on the provided research, social media was mostly noise or irrelevant, with no specific posts or viral narratives identified as a primary or accelerant driver for this market movement [5].
Outcome: 5.36% or above
📈 September 23, 2026: 72.0pp spike
Price increased from 12.0% to 84.0%
What happened: The prediction market price movement was primarily driven by a confluence of traditional news and market factors, with no identifiable social media activity influencing the spike. On September 23, 2026, the 30-year US Treasury yield saw significant upward pressure due to stronger-than-expected U.S. growth and inflation data, rising oil prices, hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, and weak demand at a $70 billion five-year Treasury auction [6][1][7]. This underlying market movement, pushing the 30-year yield toward and above 5.36% intraday [6][8], directly increased the implied probability for the outcome "5.36% or above" in the prediction market. Based on the available evidence, social media was irrelevant to this price movement.
📉 September 22, 2026: 23.0pp drop
Price decreased from 35.0% to 12.0%
What happened: The reported "23.0 percentage point drop" in the 30Y US Treasury yield prediction market on September 22, 2026, appears to be a unit error, as such a dramatic movement is economically impossible; actual intraday shifts for the 30-year yield on that date were approximately 2 basis points (0.02 percentage points) [9]. The observed, smaller decline in Treasury yields on September 22, 2026, was primarily driven by traditional news factors, including falling Brent crude oil prices, reduced inflation risk, and improving U.S.–Iran diplomatic prospects around the UN General Assembly [9][10][11]. No specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives influencing 30-year Treasury yields or the prediction market was identified in the provided sources for September 22, 2026. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this reported price movement.
Outcome: 5.4% or above
📉 September 21, 2026: 21.0pp drop
Price decreased from 21.0% to 0.0%
What happened: The market movement on September 21, 2026, was a 21 basis point (0.21 percentage point) drop in the 30-year US Treasury yield, not 21.0 percentage points as stated [12][13][14][15][16]. This decline was primarily driven by traditional news and announcements, specifically falling oil prices and expectations that former President Trump might initiate negotiations with Iran, which supported a Treasury rally and lowered long-term yields [17][18][19][20]. No specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives were identified as drivers for this market movement. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this price change.
Outcome: 5.3% or above
📈 September 19, 2026: 58.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 58.0%
What happened: The reported "58.0 percentage point spike" in the 30-year US Treasury yield on September 19, 2026, is inconsistent with available data, as September 19 was a Saturday and yields typically move in basis points, not full percentage points [21][22]. There is no documented social media catalyst for any significant price movement in Treasury yields on that date or for the broader selloff in long-end Treasuries [1][23][24][25][26][27]. Instead, the prevailing rise in long-end Treasury yields, which saw the 30-year yield around 5.44% by September 24, is primarily attributed to stronger growth and inflation data, higher oil prices, a hawkish Federal Reserve, elevated fiscal concerns, and heavy Treasury supply [1][23][24][25][26][27]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this market movement, which appears to be driven by macroeconomic fundamentals.
Sources (27)
- 1US 30-year bond yield rises to highest since 2004 as selloff deepens | Reutersreuters.com
- 210-year Treasury yield continues to rise from 19-year highcnbc.com
- 3Global bond sell-off deepens amid fears US economy may be running too hot – business livetheguardian.com
- 4U.S. 30-year bond yield rises to highest since 2004 as selloff deepens - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
- 5Bond market rejects Treasury’s game plan, for nowyoutube.com
- 6Treasuries-US yields jump after bullish economic data, oil price rise - TLT News | Ralliesrallies.ai
- 7Understanding the "Black Wednesday" of US Treasuries: "Perfect Storm" Strikes, "October Rate Hike" Winds Rise | HTX Insightshtx.com
- 8[New York Bond Market]Treasuries Plunge as Perfect Storm Pushes 10-Year Yield Above 5.10% < New York Market < Article - Yonhap Infomaxen.infomaxai.com
- 9U.S. Treasury yields ease as investors await fresh jobs data, Fed commentscnbc.com
- 1010-Year Treasury Yield Falls to 4.95% After… | Pomegra Briefspomegra.io
- 11Treasury Yield Curve Flattens as Oil Costs Ease and UN Diplomacy Calms Markets - TheCryptagonthecryptagon.com
- 12www.cnbc.comOctagon Agentcnbc.com
- 13www.reuters.comOctagon Agentreuters.com
- 14www.wsj.comOctagon Agentwsj.com
- 15www.cnbc.comOctagon Agentcnbc.com
- 16seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
- 17Treasury yields ease as global borrowing costs tumblecnbc.com
- 18US Treasuries Rally as Trump Opens Door to Iran Negotiations < Bonds/Forex < Article - Yonhap Infomaxen.infomaxai.com
- 19Treasuries-US 10-yield eases with lower oil, European yields - TLT News | Ralliesrallies.ai
- 20Treasury Yields Slip as Oil Retreatsbriefs.co
- 21Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS30) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 22Table Data - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 2330-Year Yield Presses Toward 19-Year Highs After… | Pomegra Newspomegra.io
- 24How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?polymarket.com
- 2530-Year Treasury Tops 5.25%, a 19-Year High | Pomegra Newspomegra.io
- 26Treasury Yields of 2 Years & 3 Years Spike toward 5%, but 10-Year Holds at 5%, Yield Curve Bulges: Some Thoughts on What’s Brewing | Wolf Streetwolfstreet.com
- 27Why long Treasury yields are high: it is the term premiumchaosandorderinsight.substack.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the specific market "5.44% or above", a YES resolution is triggered if the 30-year US Treasury yield observed for "tomorrow" is 5.44% or higher; otherwise, a NO resolution is triggered if the yield is below 5.44%. The market's outcome is determined based on the yield for the designated "tomorrow" date, with a maximum payout date of September 25, 2026. No other special settlement conditions are explicitly stated in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 98% |
| 5.32% or above | $1.00 | $0.10 | 91% |
| 5.24% or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 85% |
| 5.36% or above | $0.97 | $0.28 | 84% |
| 5.26% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 81% |
| 5.3% or above | $1.00 | $0.10 | 79% |
| 5.4% or above | $0.73 | $0.55 | 74% |
| 5.22% or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 69% |
| 5.38% or above | $0.80 | $0.45 | 66% |
| 5.42% or above | $0.55 | $0.72 | 48% |
| 5.28% or above | $1.00 | $0.08 | 45% |
| 5.44% or above | $0.37 | $0.91 | 40% |
| 5.34% or above | $0.95 | $0.20 | 31% |
| 5.16% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| 5.18% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Multiple sources estimate the 30-year US Treasury yield on September 25, 2026, to be in the range of 5.30%–5.36%, with a central point estimate of approximately 5.35% [1][2][3][4][5][6]. The latest observed 30-year constant-maturity yield was 5.29% on September 17, 2026 [7][8]. Market commentary is strongly bearish on long-duration Treasuries, driven by heavy fiscal supply, rising term premium, large speculative net shorts, and risks of persistent inflation or hawkish Federal Reserve repricing [5][9][10][11][6][12][13][14].
Sources (14)
- 130Y US Treasury yield on Sep 25, 2026? - Quote su Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS30) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 330Y Treasury Yield Forecast 2026 | Convexconvextrade.com
- 4How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?polymarket.com
- 5How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?probsee.com
- 6How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?polymarket-insider.com
- 7Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS30) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 8Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 9How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?polymarket.com
- 1030-Year Treasury COT & Institutional Positioning — Smart Money Analysimacroagentdesk.com
- 1130-Year Treasury COT & Institutional Positioning — Smart Money Analysimacroagentdesk.com
- 1230y Treasury yield outlook — what moves it & every scenario | MacroGurumacroguru.app
- 132026 Economic Calendarus.econoday.com
- 14Forex Economic Calendar for September 25, 2026forex.tradingcharts.com
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score77Good
Market integrity is low (63), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score35High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score68Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What specific inflation or employment data released before September 25, 2026, could trigger a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve's policy projections?
| Primary Hawkish Shift Trigger | Hotter-than-expected August inflation (CPI/PPI) and strong August employment figures [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| August CPI Release Date | Sep. 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET [1][2] |
| August Employment Situation Release Date | Sep. 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET [1][2] |
August inflation and employment data were key hawkish triggers. A hawkish shift in Federal Reserve policy projections before September 25, 2026, would primarily have been triggered by hotter-than-expected August inflation data, specifically the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) [1][2][3][4][5][6]. These inflation signals would be especially potent if reinforced by strong August employment figures [1][2][3][4][5][6]. These critical data releases occurred in early September, with the official schedules indicating no major inflation or employment data releases were set for immediately before September 25 itself [1][2][7].
Crucial inflation reports were scheduled for early September 2026. The key inflation releases available before the September 25 Treasury-yield resolution included the August PPI on September 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET and the August CPI on September 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET [1][2]. A hotter-than-expected combination of August CPI and PPI would be the most market-relevant trigger for a further hawkish repricing, particularly if it demonstrated persistent core/services or wage-sensitive inflation [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Governor Waller also indicated that a hot August inflation report could justify a rate hike [6].
Strong employment data would reinforce hawkish policy projections. Key employment releases preceding September 25 included the July JOLTS report on September 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET and the August Employment Situation report on September 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET [1][2]. This Employment Situation report covers payrolls, unemployment, and wages. Strong payroll growth, low unemployment, firm wage gains, or rising job openings, if reinforcing the inflation data, could also trigger a hawkish shift [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Such data would challenge the September Economic Projections (SEP)'s 4.1% unemployment assumption and increase the likelihood that the Fed keeps rates above the projected 2026 4.00%-4.25% range or delays future rate cuts [1][2][3][4][5][6]. According to official schedules, no major inflation or employment data releases were scheduled between September 24 and September 25, 2026, that would directly trigger a near-term policy shift [2][8][9].
Sources (9)
- 1Schedule of Selected Releases 2026 - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov
- 2Schedule of Selected Releases for September 2026data.bls.gov
- 3The Fed - September 16, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible versionfederalreserve.gov
- 4Fed hikes rates in search of 'timelier' drop in inflation, sees more tightening ahead | Reutersreuters.com
- 5Fed delivers hike one, signals onebbvaresearch.com
- 6Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlookfederalreserve.gov
- 7September 2026 U.S. Economic Calendar: CPI, Jobs & Fed | FedRateCalcfedratecalc.com
- 8Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Indexbls.gov
- 9Release Schedule | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
7. What evidence from U.S. Treasury auction results and CBO fiscal projections supports the market consensus for sustained high 30-year yields?
| 30-year Treasury Auction Yield | 5.308% (September 10, 2026 auction) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| CBO Projected FY2026 Deficit | $1.9 trillion (February 2026 baseline) [3][4][5] |
| CBO Projected 10-Year Yield (2026) | 4.1% [3][4][5][6] |
Recent Treasury auctions confirm sustained high 30-year yields despite demand. The U.S. 30-year Treasury auction on September 10, 2026, cleared at a high yield of 5.308%, which was the highest since August 9, 2001, with market yields remaining around 5.329% thereafter [1][2]. Despite robust demand, evidenced by a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.61, investors absorbed the supply only at this historically elevated yield [1][2]. This outcome, alongside a September 15, 2026, Treasury bond auction clearing at 5.420% with a 2.57 bid-to-cover ratio, indicates a high-yield regime rather than an imminent collapse in demand [7][1][2][8]. The latest FRED DGS30 observation on September 17, at 5.29%, further reinforces a strong near-term basis for a sustained-high-yield consensus [9].
CBO projections support structurally elevated 30-year yields due to deficits. The Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) February 2026 baseline projections reinforce this outlook for structurally elevated 30-year yields. The CBO forecasts a $1.9 trillion federal deficit for fiscal year 2026, projected to increase to $3.1 trillion by 2036 [3][4][5]. During this period, deficits are expected to rise from 5.8% to 6.7% of GDP, and public debt from 101% to 120% of GDP, primarily driven by increasing net-interest costs [3][4][5]. The CBO also projects the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.1% in 2026, rising to approximately 4.4% from 2031 onward, attributing these longer-term rates to rising term premiums and growing national debt [3][4][5][6]. This provides macro support for sustained high yields, indicating that while buyers are present, the necessary clearing yield remains elevated due to increasing supply and associated risk premiums [1][3][4][6]. Furthermore, prediction-market evidence aligns with this sustained elevation, showing a 98% implied probability that the September 25, 2026, 30-year par yield would be at least 5.20% [10].
Sources (10)
- 1U.S. 30-Year Treasury Auction Shows Strong Demand | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 2The winning bid percentage for the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond auction ending September 10 was 64.29%, compared to 12.10% previously. The winning yield was 5.308%, compared to 5.216% previously. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.61, compared to 2.39 previously.FXBus - Real-Time Financial Newsfxbus.com
- 3The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036cbo.gov
- 4The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 Executive Summarycbo.gov
- 5The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036cbo.gov
- 6CBO's February 2026 Budget and Economic Outlookcrfb.org
- 7US: 30-Yr Bond Auction - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 8TREASURY AUCTION RESULTSfiscaldata.treasury.gov
- 9Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS30) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 1030Y US Treasury yield on Sep 25, 2026? - Quote su Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
8. How do the late-2026 interest rate forecasts from PIMCO and BBVA differ in their underlying assumptions about inflation and economic growth?
| BBVA U.S. 2026 Inflation | Around 3.4% year-over-year or 3.5% on average [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| BBVA U.S. 2026 GDP Growth | 2.4% [1][2][6][4] |
| BBVA Fed Rate 2H26 | Around 3.75% [1][2][3][4][5] |
PIMCO and BBVA have distinct inflation and growth assumptions for late 2026. Both firms anticipate inflation will remain above the 2% target by late 2026. PIMCO emphasizes a temporary, supply-side nature to the inflation overshoot, expecting eventual disinflation [7][8][1][2][3][5]. Conversely, BBVA highlights resilient demand and potential risks from energy, services, and AI-driven spending, which could sustain elevated inflation and delay interest rate cuts [7][8][1][2][3][5].
Their differing assumptions lead to distinct late-2026 interest rate and growth projections. PIMCO's late-September 2026 outlook suggests the Federal Reserve may implement one or two additional 25-basis-point hikes through late 2026 or early 2027, anticipating limited need for sustained tightening once temporary non-labor pressures subside by early 2027 [7][8][9][10]. Their growth assumption is constructive and productivity-sensitive, noting AI investment's potential to boost productivity and eventually contribute to disinflation [7][11][10][12]. BBVA's mid-to-late-2026 baseline projects U.S. 2026 inflation around 3.4% year-over-year or 3.5% on average [1][2][3][4][5]. BBVA forecasts U.S. GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026, supported by technology investment, fiscal spending, and robust labor markets [1][2][6][4]. Consequently, BBVA expects the Fed to maintain rates around 3.75% through the second half of 2026 and hold until approximately mid-2027 before easing [1][2][3][4][5].
Full comparison of late-2026 forecasts was limited by source availability. A reliable comparison between PIMCO's and BBVA's late-2026 forecasts could not be fully established from the retrieved sources [13][14][15]. The original search process located PIMCO's September 2026 note, but it did not yield specific BBVA forecasts or assumptions regarding late-2026 inflation, GDP growth, or interest rates [13][14][15]. Therefore, any detailed claim of differences between the two firms' specific late-2026 outlooks would be unsupported based on the conducted research [13][14][15].
Sources (15)
- 12Q26 Report Environment - Accionistas e Inversiones en Bolsa, Analistas de Mercados y Financieros – BBVAshareholdersandinvestors.bbva.com
- 220260716 Macro Talks_IRshareholdersandinvestors.bbva.com
- 3Previsiones económicas por país | BBVA Researchbbvaresearch.com
- 4Economic forecasts by country | BBVA Researchbbvaresearch.com
- 5Treasury yields level off as markets await August databbvaresearch.com
- 6Situación España junio 2026bbvaresearch.com
- 7Macro Signposts | A Recalibration, Not a Rate-Hike Cycle | PIMCOpimco.com
- 8Macro Signposts | September Fed Hike May Be More Than a Risk Management Exercise | PIMCOpimco.com
- 9Macro Signposts | If Inflation Is the Problem, Why Aren't Wages? | PIMCOpimco.com
- 10Macro Signposts | Supply Shocks and AI-Related Demand Blur Inflation Signals for the Fed | PIMCOpimco.com
- 11Rupture and Resilience: 2026 Global Economic Outlook, Geopolitics, and Fixed Income Investment Strategy | PIMCOpimco.com
- 12Global Fiscal Policy and Debt Sustainabilitypimco.com
- 13Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026newyorkfed.org
- 14The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2026 - Liberty Street Economicslibertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
- 15The U.S. Economy: National Economic Outlooknewyorkfed.org
9. What is the specific methodology and release schedule for the U.S. Treasury par yield data used in the Federal Reserve's H.15 report for market settlement?
| H.15 30-year Treasury Definition | 30-year Constant Maturity Treasury (CMT) yield [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| H.15 Report Release Time | 4:15 p.m. Eastern (Monday-Friday) [4][5][6] |
| Treasury Daily Curve Availability | Approximately 6:00 p.m. Eastern [1][2] |
The 30-year Constant Maturity Treasury (CMT) yield defines H.15 settlement data. This specific yield, rather than that of a particular bond, is the U.S. Treasury par yield data referenced in the Federal Reserve's H.15 report for market settlement [1][2][3]. The U.S. Treasury constructs this figure daily by gathering indicative bid-side prices for the most recently auctioned nominal Treasury securities, which are obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York around 3:30 p.m. Eastern on each business day [1][2][3]. The current methodology, effective December 6, 2021, employs a monotone-convex spline applied to forward rates to produce the complete yield curve and par rates [1][3]. Historically, the 30-year series was temporarily unavailable between February 18, 2002, and February 9, 2006 [7][8].
H.15 reports are released daily, determining end-of-day settlement values. The H.15 report is typically published Monday through Friday at 4:15 p.m. Eastern, a timing confirmed by the Board's 2026 calendar [4][5][6]. The daily Treasury yield curve itself is generally made available on the Treasury's website by approximately 6:00 p.m. Eastern on each trading day [1][2]. Consequently, the settlement value for any given date, such as September 25, 2026, will be the 30-year par/CMT observation recorded at the close of that business day, as subsequently republished in the H.15 report, rather than an intraday quote [1][2].
Sources (8)
- 1Treasury Yield Curve Methodologyhome.treasury.gov
- 2Interest Rate Statistics | U.S. Department of the Treasuryhome.treasury.gov
- 3Daily Treasury Rates | U.S. Department of the Treasuryhome.treasury.gov
- 4Federal Reserve Board - H.15 - Selected Interest Rates (Daily) - September 08, 2026federalreserve.gov
- 5Federal Reserve Board - Statistical Release Calendarfederalreserve.gov
- 6Federal Reserve Board - H.15 - Selected Interest Rates - Aboutfederalreserve.gov
- 7Federal Reserve Board - H.15 - Selected Interest Rates (Daily)federalreserve.gov
- 8https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/current/h15.htmfederalreserve.gov
10. Which leading economic indicators from the ISM or Department of Labor signal a potential slowdown that could pull 30-year yields lower by late September?
| ISM Services Employment (Aug) | 47.8% [1] |
|---|---|
| Initial Unemployment Claims (Sep 20) | 218,000 [2] |
| 30-Year Treasury Yield (Sep 24) | 5.42%-5.444% [3] |
Some labor and demand indicators suggest a potential economic deceleration. The August ISM Manufacturing PMI report indicated declines in several areas, with New Orders falling to 53.7 from 56.7, Backlog dropping to 51.8 from 55.0, and Employment decreasing to 51.2 from 52.8 [4]. Additionally, the August ISM Services Employment index remained contractionary at 47.8% for the second consecutive month, which has been identified as a key bearish-growth signal [1].
However, other key economic indicators demonstrate surprising resilience against a broad slowdown. Initial unemployment insurance claims for the week ending September 20 totaled 218,000, a decrease from the prior week, which does not signal a strong slowdown by itself [2]. Claims for the week ending September 12 were even lower at 196,000, further suggesting that an imminent sharp slowdown is unlikely [5]. The August Employment Situation report showed resilience, with payrolls increasing by 162,000 and the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.1% [6]. Furthermore, growth nowcasts have been strongly expansionary [7].
Overall, the market currently shows little support for lower long-term yields. Inflation expectations continue to present an obstacle to a significant long-duration rally [8]. The prevailing market conditions are presently unfavorable to a lower-yield thesis, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching approximately 5.42%–5.444% on September 24 [3]. Therefore, the evidence for a slowdown capable of pulling 30-year yields materially lower by late September remains mixed and presently weak, as current data indicate soft labor subindexes but resilient demand and falling claims [3][5][6][7][8].
Sources (8)
- 1August 2026 ISM® Services PMI® Reportismworld.org
- 2News Releasedol.gov
- 3US 30-year bond yield rises to highest since 2004 as selloff deepens | Reutersreuters.com
- 4August 2026 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Reportismworld.org
- 5Initial Claims (ICSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 6Employment Situation Summary - 2026 M08 Resultsbls.gov
- 7GDPNow (GDPNOW) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 8Inflation Nowcastingclevelandfed.org
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The official 30-year U.S. Treasury par yield for September 25, 2026, is not yet published [1]. The latest available official figure is 5.40% for September 23, 2026 [2]. Prediction markets price the September 25 contract at approximately 98% for 5.20% or above [3]. Model forecasts project September's monthly average near 5.27% and year-end near 5.40% [4][5]. A practical point estimate for September 25 is approximately 5.35%, with a short-horizon range of about 5.25%–5.45% [3][6][1].
The near-term backdrop as of September 24 is bearish for long-duration Treasuries [7][8][9]. This includes a reported 10-year yield jump of about 14 basis points to roughly 5.11% and the 30-year yield near 5.4% [7]. Contributing factors include stronger flash PMI, higher oil near $103, hawkish Federal Reserve repricing, and a weak $70 billion 5-year auction [7][8][10]. October Fed-hike odds are reported near 68%–70% [10]. The FOMC's September 16, 2026, meeting resulted in a hike to a 3.75%–4.00% fed funds target range, with the Fed stating inflation remained elevated [2]. Scheduled releases around September 25 include H.15 interest-rate data on September 25 and BLS "Employee Benefits in the United States" on September 25 [11][12].
Bullish drivers for bonds include disinflation surprises in CPI/PPI, labor-market cooling, contained Treasury supply, or risk-off shocks [2]. These conditions could pull the 30-year yield below roughly 5.30%, supporting duration-sensitive equities and real estate [7][8][10][4][5]. Conversely, bearish drivers such as sticky inflation, a more restrictive Fed path, heavy coupon issuance, or oil/geopolitical shocks could push the 30-year yield toward 5.40%–5.50% [2]. This would pressure long-duration stocks, utilities, real estate, and leveraged borrowers [7][8][10][4][5]. The next major U.S. data cluster includes September 29 JOLTS, and September 30 third-estimate GDP plus August personal income/outlays and PCE inflation [11][13][14][15][16].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: September 25, 2026
- Expiration: September 27, 2026
- Closes: September 25, 2026
Sources (16)
- 1Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS30) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 2home.treasury.govOctagon Agent
- 330Y US Treasury yield on Sep 25, 2026? - Quote su Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 430Y Treasury Yield Forecast 2026 | Convexconvextrade.com
- 530 year treasury bond yield - forecast chart - Econforecastingeconforecasting.com
- 6Daily Treasury Rates | U.S. Department of the Treasuryhome.treasury.gov
- 7Understanding the "Black Wednesday" of US Treasuries: "Perfect Storm" Strikes, "October Rate Hike" Winds Rise | HTX Insightshtx.com
- 8Fortem Financial | Weekly Market Commentary - Week Ending September 25, 2026fortemfin.com
- 9Bonds Are About To Crash The Stock Marketquoththeraven.substack.com
- 10October Fed Hike Odds Hit 70%, US Yield Breakout Puts EUR/USD at Risk - ActionForexactionforex.com
- 11Federal Reserve Board - Calendar: September 2026federalreserve.gov
- 12Schedule of Selected Releases 2026bls.gov
- 13September 2026 U.S. Economic Calendar: CPI, Jobs & Fed | FedRateCalcfedratecalc.com
- 142026 Economic Calendarus.econoday.com
- 15Federal Reserve Board - Calendar: September 2026federalreserve.gov
- 16US Economic Calendar 2026: Fed Meetings, CPI, Jobs Report & PMI Schedule | MEXC Crypto Pulsemexc.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXUST30A-26SEP18-T5.48: NO (Sep 18, 2026)
- KXUST30A-26SEP18-T5.46: NO (Sep 18, 2026)
- KXUST30A-26SEP18-T5.44: NO (Sep 18, 2026)
- KXUST30A-26SEP18-T5.42: NO (Sep 18, 2026)
- KXUST30A-26SEP18-T5.40: NO (Sep 18, 2026)
