How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?
Short Answer
The 10Y US Treasury yield is expected to reach 5.02% or above by September 30, 2026. This outlook is supported by the yield's 5.04% high on September 15, 2026, and anticipated Fed rate hikes and high oil prices, with the market pricing this outcome at 83% while the model indicates 100%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The prediction market's largest move occurred on September 15, when the 10-year US Treasury yield reached 5.04%, a 16-year high. This breach of the 5% level directly drove a 24 percentage point spike in the market's implied probability, as traders priced in a higher likelihood of the yield remaining elevated. By September 16, the yield was hovering just below the 5% mark.
Earlier spikes in September established this upward momentum. On September 11, the market probability jumped 30 points on news of an oil-driven inflation scare and disappointing Treasury buyback results, which pushed the 10-year yield up by 12 basis points. This was followed on September 13 by another 15-point increase, driven by rising market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. These back-to-back events compounded upward pressure on yields and the corresponding market price.
- Yield above 5.04% has already occurred, reaching this level on September 15, 2026.
- Yield above 5.08% is possible, driven by anticipated Fed hikes and high oil prices.
- The yield may peak near 5.10% following the September 2026 FOMC meeting.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.05% or above | 77.0% | 87.3% | Anticipated Fed rate hikes and high oil prices suggest upward pressure towards a 5.10% peak. |
| 5.06% or above | 63.0% | 74.6% | Anticipated Fed rate hikes and high oil prices suggest upward pressure towards a 5.10% peak. |
| 5.1% or above | 29.0% | 34.3% | The 10Y yield reached 5.04%, with catalysts projecting further upward pressure towards 5.10%. |
| 5.09% or above | 31.0% | 36.5% | Anticipated Fed rate hikes and high oil prices suggest upward pressure towards a 5.10% peak. |
| 5.04% or above | 82.0% | 91.8% | The 10Y US Treasury yield reached 5.04% on September 15, 2026, meeting this level. |
Current Context
The US 10Y Treasury yield recently surpassed 5% amid strong drivers. On September 15, 2026, the 10-year US Treasury yield reached a 16-year high of 5.04% [1], a level not seen since 2007 [2]. By September 16, 2026, the yield had briefly surpassed the 5% threshold before slightly cooling to hover just around or below 5% [2][3][4]. The increase was driven by rising crude oil prices and heightened inflation expectations [1]. The 30-year yield also moved above 5%, which market participants viewed as a "pain point" for the Treasury [5].
Market sentiment anticipates a Federal Reserve rate hike this month. This anticipation centers on an expected 25 basis point interest rate hike on September 16, 2026 [6][2][3][4]. Market-implied probabilities in mid-September 2026 indicated an 86.5% likelihood of such a hike, following recent consumer price index data [7]. Broader market sentiment is also shaped by concerns over sticky inflation, high oil prices, and fiscal/debt issuance dynamics [6][2][3][4]. Market volatility has increased, with the 2-Year Treasury yield experiencing its largest weekly increase since April 2025 as the Federal Reserve weighs further interest rate adjustments [7].
Forecasts suggest the 10Y yield will remain elevated through September. Expert predictions and probability markets indicate the 10-year yield is likely to remain in the 4.5%-5.25% range by the end of September 2026 [6][8]. Some analysts have raised their year-end forecasts toward 5.2%, citing the ongoing selloff [6]. The bond market has recently demonstrated resistance to the Treasury's stated objectives [9].
Sources (9)
- 110-Year Treasury yield hits 16-year high at 5.04%. - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 210-year Treasury yield above 5% as investors await Fed decisioncnbc.com
- 3U.S. 10-yr Treasury yields cool below 5% as Fed rate decision approaches By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 4US Treasury Yields take a breather after recent rally, Fed’s policy in focustmgm.com
- 5Bessent Launches Treasury Bid to Tame Yields | Bloomberg Surveillanceyoutube.com
- 6Barrow Raises 10-Year Treasury Yield Forecast, Says Selloff Will Continue - Bloombergbloomberg.com
- 7Treasury yields jump 24 bps as the Fed weighs a rate hike. - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 8Good Judgment® Open | What will be the yield for US 10-year Treasury securities on 30 September 2026?gjopen.com
- 9Bond market rejects Treasury’s game plan, for nowyoutube.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 5.08% or above
📈 September 15, 2026: 82.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 83.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price spike was the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching 5.04% on September 15, 2026, marking its highest level since 2007 [1][2]. This event directly increased the perceived probability of the "5.08% or above" outcome. This significant yield increase was primarily attributed to traditional macroeconomic factors such as persistent inflation concerns, high global energy prices exceeding $100/barrel, and anticipation of potential Federal Reserve rate hikes [3][4][2]. The provided sources do not contain any information about social media activity from key figures or viral narratives that could have driven or accelerated this price movement. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this specific prediction market price move.
Outcome: 5.02% or above
📈 September 14, 2026: 15.0pp spike
Price increased from 65.0% to 80.0%
What happened: The 15.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on September 14, 2026, was primarily driven by the actual 10-year U.S. Treasury yield nearing or exceeding the 5.02% threshold [2]. By September 16, 2026, the yield reached 5.04%, its highest level since July 2007 [2], with market analysis attributing this increase to rising crude oil prices and inflation expectations [2]. This traditional news of the real-world market movement likely coincided with the prediction market's adjustment. Social media was irrelevant as a primary driver, as no specific social media activity or viral narratives were identified as influencing this price movement.
📈 September 10, 2026: 40.0pp spike
Price increased from 2.0% to 42.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not indicate any social media activity from key figures or viral narratives that drove the prediction market's price movement on September 10, 2026. The primary drivers for the 10Y US Treasury yield spike on that date, which would make the "5.02% or above" outcome more likely, were disappointment over a $6 billion Treasury bond buyback operation and a surge in oil prices above $100/barrel amid escalated Middle East conflict, fueling inflation fears [5]. These events coincided with the yield hitting 4.95% on September 10, 2026, eventually reaching approximately 5.03% by September 15, 2026 [1]. Based on the available information, social media activity was irrelevant.
Outcome: 5.05% or above
📈 September 13, 2026: 15.0pp spike
Price increased from 32.0% to 47.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was the rapidly escalating expectation of a Federal Reserve rate hike, which led to significant upward pressure on the 10-year US Treasury yield. On September 11, 2026, Treasury yields jumped 24 basis points, as market sentiment was influenced by an 86.5% probability of a 25 basis point Fed hike following recent CPI data [6]. This event, just two days before the market spike, positioned the 10Y yield to rise close to the 5.05% threshold, reaching 4.97% by September 14 [7] and 5.041% on September 15, 2026 [1]. Social media was irrelevant, as no related activity was found in the provided sources.
📈 September 11, 2026: 30.0pp spike
Price increased from 8.0% to 38.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market spike on September 11, 2026, was a combination of an oil-driven inflation scare and disappointing results from U.S. Treasury buybacks [8]. On that date, the 10-year Treasury yield rose about 12 basis points, associated with an oil-driven inflation scare and the Treasury buying $5.19 billion of 10- to 20-year debt, falling short of the possible $6 billion maximum [8][7]. There is no direct evidence from the provided sources of social media activity from key figures or viral narratives leading to or coinciding with this specific price move. Social media was irrelevant as a primary driver for this event.
Sources (8)
- 110-year Treasury yield above 5% as investors await Fed decisioncnbc.com
- 210-Year Treasury yield hits 16-year high at 5.04%. - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 3Global bond yields hit fresh highs, raising stakes for big borrowers | Reutersreuters.com
- 4How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?polymarket.com
- 510-year Treasury yield tops 4.9%, highest since 2023, as oil surge raises inflation fearscnbc.com
- 6U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield hits 4.95% ahead of CPI data. - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 7Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS10) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 8US Treasury yields surge as oil spike, buyback results fuel sell-off - The Business Timesbusinesstimes.com.sg
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the 10Y US Treasury yield reaches 5.08% or above by the settlement date. Conversely, it resolves to "No" if the yield remains below 5.08% until the market's conclusion. The final settlement and payout for this market are scheduled for September 30, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.03% or above | $0.99 | $0.12 | 99% |
| 5.02% or above | $0.99 | $0.10 | 83% |
| 5.08% or above | $0.73 | $0.71 | 83% |
| 5.04% or above | $0.90 | $0.84 | 82% |
| 5.05% or above | $0.75 | $0.36 | 77% |
| 5.01% or above | $0.99 | $0.13 | 70% |
| 5.06% or above | $0.87 | $0.46 | 63% |
| 5.07% or above | $0.62 | $0.76 | 39% |
| 5.09% or above | $0.76 | $0.89 | 31% |
| 5.1% or above | $0.72 | $0.89 | 29% |
Market Discussion
The 10-year US Treasury yield recently touched the 5% threshold, a level not consistently observed since 2007, and was 4.97% as of September 14, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Prediction markets suggest a high probability (approx. 96%) that the yield will remain above 4.60% through September 30, 2026, with substantial volume in the 4.50%–5.00% range [5][6][7][8][9]. This upward pressure is primarily driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike on September 16, 2026, fueled by persistent inflation and a bearish bond market narrative [10][11][12][13].
Sources (13)
- 1U.S. 10-yr Treasury yields cool below 5% as Fed rate decision approaches By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 210-year Treasury yield hits 5%, critical threshold for US economy and markets | CNN Businesscnn.com
- 310-Year Treasury Yield Highest Since July 2007, 30-Year Since July 2004 – MishTalkmishtalk.com
- 4Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS10) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 510Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026? Odds & Predictions - Kalshikalshi.com
- 610Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 7How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?polymarket.com
- 8Good Judgment® Open | What will be the yield for US 10-year Treasury securities on 30 September 2026?gjopen.com
- 9Good Judgment® Open | What will be the yield for US 10-year Treasury securities on 30 September 2026?gjopen.com
- 10Fed rate hike on Wednesday now likely, say economists, and at least one more to follow: Reuters Poll | Reutersreuters.com
- 11Preview: The FOMC Rate Decision and SEPs due Wednesday, 16th September 2026 at 19:00BST/14:00EDT | Newsquawknewsquawk.com
- 12U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield hits 4.95% ahead of CPI data. - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 13Treasury yields jump 24 bps as the Fed weighs a rate hike. - CME Groupcmegroup.com
5. Trust Index
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score53Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score78Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What specific inflation metrics and oil price levels before September 30, 2026, would most likely compel the Federal Reserve to implement another rate hike?
| Oil Price Threshold | Above $100/barrel (sustained) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8] |
|---|---|
| Inflation Target | Above 2% (persistent) [1][2][3][4] |
| Rate Hike Compulsion Timeline | Before September 30, 2026 [1][2][3][4] |
Higher inflation data and sustained oil prices could prompt a Fed hike. To likely compel the Federal Reserve to implement another rate hike before September 30, 2026, August CPI and PPI readings would need to exceed forecasts, alongside crude oil prices sustaining levels above $100 per barrel [1][2][3][4]. Federal Reserve officials are concerned about persistent inflation that remains above their 2% target [1][2][3][4]. This inflationary pressure is largely attributed to energy shocks stemming from ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which carries the risk of broader price increases across goods and elevated inflation expectations [1][2][3][4].
The Federal Reserve monitors sustained energy costs for broader inflationary effects. Policymakers have indicated that more restrictive monetary policy may be necessary if elevated inflation persists, especially if energy cost pressures from the Middle East conflict become ingrained in business expectations and wage growth rather than remaining temporary shocks [5][9][6][7]. While the Federal Reserve generally prefers to "look through" temporary oil price fluctuations, a sustained level at or above $100 per barrel, as observed in mid-2026, is considered a significant risk factor due to its potential for secondary price effects [5][6][7]. For instance, crude oil has already risen above $100 a barrel [8].
Sources (9)
- 1Fed, eyeing inflation data, may lean toward a hike, traders betreuters.com
- 2Fed rate hike in September is all but guaranteed after CPI report...cbsnews.com
- 3Will the Fed Hike Rates in September? A 25-Basis-Point Move Is...chase.com
- 4Fed Rate Hike September 2026: Markets Brace for 25bps Move...intellectia.ai
- 5It Takes Two to Make an Economy Go Rightclevelandfed.org
- 6Firms' Views on the Current Oil Price Shock: Stable for Now, Risky for Tomorrow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantaatlantafed.org
- 7There Is No Try - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORKnewyorkfed.org
- 8CPI and National Security since 9/11 | Bloomberg Surveillanceyoutube.com
- 9Welcome to the Whirlwind - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantaatlantafed.org
7. What are the end-of-September 2026 forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield from leading financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan?
| Goldman Sachs Sep 2026 10-year yield forecast | Not provided in public documentation [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| JPMorgan Year-End 2026 10-year yield forecast | 4.70% by year-end 2026 [5] |
| 10-year US Treasury yield | 4.97% as of September 14, 2026 [6][7] |
Specific end-of-September 2026 forecasts are not publicly available from leading institutions. Neither Goldman Sachs nor JPMorgan has provided specific end-of-September 2026 point forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield in publicly accessible documentation. Goldman Sachs has not published such a specific forecast in its public records [1][2][3][4]. While JPMorgan Global Research projected the 10-year Treasury yield to reach 4.70% by year-end 2026, with a potential range of 4.20% (downside) to 4.80% (upside), this forecast is specifically for year-end and not for September 2026 [5]. Furthermore, public surveys, such as the New York Fed's Survey of Market Expectations, do not explicitly list current end-of-September 2026 point forecasts from JPMorgan [8][9][10][11].
Goldman Sachs noted elevated bond yields amid a rising September market. Goldman Sachs has not released a precise end-of-September 2026 point forecast for the 10-year yield in public records [1][2][3][4]. However, in September 2026, Goldman Sachs commented on global bond yields being "elevated" and "surging" [1][2], noting that 10-year US Treasury yields had recently surpassed 5% [3]. Reflecting this trend, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.97% on September 14, 2026, marking an upward movement from 4.77% on September 3 [6][7][12][13]. Additionally, Kalshi prediction markets indicated a high probability (near 99%) that the 10-year Treasury yield would reach or exceed 4.85% (and specifically 4.94% or above) at some point between September 9 and September 30, 2026 [14][15].
Sources (15)
- 1Why Global Bond Yields Are Expected to Stay Elevatedgoldmansachs.com
- 2Why Global Bond Yields Are Surging - Goldman Sachsgoldmansachs.com
- 3How Inflation and Fiscal Policy Are Driving US Treasury Marketsgoldmansachs.com
- 4US Market Pulse September 2026am.gs.com
- 5Mid-year market outlook 2026 - Global Research - J.P. Morganjpmorgan.com
- 6Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS10) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 7Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 8SEPTEMBER 2025newyorkfed.org
- 9SURVEY OF MARKET EXPECTATIONS SEPTEMBER 2025resources.newyorkfed.org
- 10[PDF] JUNE 2025 - Federal Reserve Bank of New Yorknewyorkfed.org
- 11SURVEY OF MARKET EXPECTATIONS MARCH 2026newyorkfed.org
- 1210-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury... - FREDfred.stlouisfed.org
- 13Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growthclevelandfed.org
- 14How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026? - Kalshi noteringen | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 15How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026? - Kalshi oranları | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
8. How does the market impact of U.S. Treasury debt issuance compare to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in driving 10-year yields through September 2026?
| 10-year Treasury yield (Sep 14, 2026) | 4.97% [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| 10-year Treasury yield (Sep 16, 2026) | Hit 5% threshold [1][2][3] |
| Probability of yield reaching 4.98% or 5.03% by Sep 30, 2026 | Nearly 100% [1][4][5] |
Fiscal concerns and Federal Reserve monetary policy primarily influence 10-year Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield has been affected by growing deficits and substantial Treasury supply [6][7][1]. Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, particularly under Chair Kevin Warsh, and fiscal debt issuance are critical factors [8][9][10][11]. The Warsh-led Fed's opposition to forward guidance and market interpretations that higher market yields could substitute for policy rate hikes have increased pressure on longer-term yields [7][1]. Furthermore, changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, such as quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT), impact yields by altering the composition of the investor base [8][9][10][11].
Structural shifts necessitate private investors absorbing more Treasury debt, increasing yields. Reduced foreign demand for U.S. debt and increased corporate borrowing have compelled private investors to absorb a larger share of Treasury issuance, leading to demands for higher term premiums [7][12]. Significant debt issuance without Federal Reserve purchasing further contributes to upward pressure on long-term rates [8][9][10][11]. As of September 14, 2026, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.97%, having recently touched the 5% threshold by September 16, 2026 [1][2][3]. Market analysts maintain a bearish outlook on Treasuries due to ongoing fiscal issuance, suggesting potential for further yield increases into late 2026 [13]. Prediction markets indicated a nearly 100% probability of the yield reaching or exceeding 4.98% or 5.03% by September 30, 2026 [1][4][5].
Sources (13)
- 110-year Treasury yield hits 5%, critical threshold for US economy...cnn.com
- 2Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS10) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 3Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 4How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026? - Kalshi noteringen | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 5SOFR for September 15, 2026 - Kalshi KXSOFRD-26SEP16 noteringen | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 6How changing interest rates impact the bond market - U.S. Bankusbank.com
- 7Bond Yields: Higher for Longer — and for Fundamental Reasonseconomics.td.com
- 8The Demand for Government Debtnewyorkfed.org
- 9Shifts in Treasury yields and market functioningclevelandfed.org
- 10Five Major Factors That Can Swing Treasury Yields - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 11US Rates: Repricing Risksnewyorkfed.org
- 12Three Reasons to Worry About Rising Treasuriescrfb.org
- 13Excell with Options: Three Charts That Tell the Story of the Treasury Market - CME Groupcmegroup.com
9. What insights can be drawn from the Federal Reserve's September 2026 dot plot and FOMC meeting minutes regarding their long-term outlook on rates and inflation?
| Fed Funds Rate 2026 Projection | 3.8% (June 2026 SEP) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Longer-Run Fed Funds Rate | 3.1% (June 2026 SEP) [1][2][3][4] |
| Market Anticipated Rate (Sept 2026) | 3.75%-4.00% [5] |
The Federal Reserve anticipates declining rates while monitoring persistent inflation concerns. The Federal Reserve's long-term outlook, preceding the September 2026 FOMC meeting, suggests a trajectory of gradually declining federal funds rates over several years, amidst ongoing concerns about inflation. Minutes from the July 2026 meeting indicated growing concern among FOMC members, with many participants suggesting that further policy tightening would be necessary if inflation did not move towards the 2% target [6][7].
Specific projections reveal a gradual reduction in future federal funds rates. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) provided a detailed long-term outlook for rates, showing a median federal funds rate projection of 3.8% for 2026, 3.6% for 2027, and 3.4% for 2028, with a longer-run median projection of 3.1% [1][2][3][4]. As of September 16, 2026, market anticipation points to a 25 basis point rate hike during the ongoing FOMC meeting, which would bring the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00% [5].
Sources (7)
- 1FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 2FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 3FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate...fred.stlouisfed.org
- 4Summary of Economic Projections, Release Date: 2026-06-17 | ALFRED | St. Louis Fedalfred.stlouisfed.org
- 5September Fed Meeting: Live Updates and Commentary - Kiplingerkiplinger.com
- 6Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committeefederalreserve.gov
- 7Fed policymakers' inflation concerns increased at July meeting...reuters.com
10. What probabilities do derivatives markets, such as Treasury options and the CME FedWatch Tool, assign to the 10-year yield remaining above 5% through the end of September 2026?
| Prediction market probability for 10-year yield near 5% by Sep 2026 | near 99% [1][2] |
|---|---|
| 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield on Sep 11, 2026 | 4.96% [3] |
| 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (DGS10) on Sep 10, 2026 | 4.95% [4] |
Derivatives markets do not directly assign a probability to the 10-year yield. Derivatives markets, including the CME FedWatch Tool and Treasury options, do not directly provide a widely cited public market-implied probability for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remaining above 5% through September 2026 [5][6][7][8]. The CME FedWatch Tool primarily tracks probabilities for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) target interest rate changes, rather than specific levels of the 10-year Treasury yield [5][6][7]. While analysts may use Fed rate expectations to forecast the 10-year yield, the Treasury options market indicates hedging activity in both directions, without offering a specific public probability for the requested scenario [8][9][10].
Prediction markets show a high probability of the yield reaching 5%. Conversely, prediction markets, specifically Kalshi, indicate a nearly 99% probability that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will reach or exceed thresholds between 4.94% and 5.00% by September 30, 2026 [1][2]. This aligns with actual reported yields from that period; for example, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield was 4.96% on September 11, 2026 [3], and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (DGS10) stood at 4.95% on September 10, 2026 [4].
Sources (10)
- 1How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026? - Kalshi noteringen | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?coinbase.com
- 3Treasury Yields Snapshot: September 11, 2026 - Advisor Perspectivesadvisorperspectives.com
- 4Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 5FedWatch - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 6CME FedWatch Tool User Guidecmegroup.com
- 7Introduction to the CME FedWatch Tool - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 8Why Are Investors Divided Over the Path of Treasury Yields?cmegroup.com
- 9Fed Rate Probability: How to Read CME FedWatch Rightvantagemarkets.com
- 10The Fed meeting is a pivotal moment for the bond market - WBAL-TVwbaltv.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting, featuring updated Summary of Economic Projections, its statement, press conference, rate path, and dot plot, is the largest near-term event risk for the long end of the Treasury market [1]. As of September 16, 2026, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to ~5.001%, its highest level since 2007 [2][3]. Market participants are focused on FOMC rate decisions, with markets pricing in approximately a 58% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the mid-September 2026 meeting [4][5]. Fed funds futures price a >92% likelihood of a 25bp hike on September 16, 2026, which would be the first increase in over three years [3]. The June 2026 Fed projections placed the median federal-funds rate at 3.8% for 2026, indicating policy was not expected to be rapidly easing [6].
Bullish drivers for yields include hotter CPI/PPI or oil-driven inflation, resilient growth, heavy Treasury issuance, rising term premium, or weak demand at auctions [2][7][6][1]. The yield surge has coincided with renewed fighting and the Saudi pipeline closure, keeping oil elevated; US crude topped $105/barrel and gasoline exceeded $4.32/gallon [2][3]. Deloitte estimates a 20% crude gain adds ~0.30pp to inflation [3]. Additionally, the NY Fed extended the halt of Reserve Management Purchases for a second consecutive month, ending balance-sheet easing [3]. History suggests longer-term bond yields typically rise after the first Fed hike of a cycle [3]. The most probable month-end peak in the official daily 10-year Treasury par yield is approximately 5.00%–5.15%, with a central estimate near 5.10%, while a sustained move above 5.25% appears a lower-probability tail [2][8][7][9].
Conversely, a dovish Fed outcome, clear disinflation, weaker labor or growth data, safe-haven demand, or strong Treasury auction demand could pull the yield back toward 4.75%–4.90% [9]. Core CPI YoY fell to its lowest reading since early 2021 in August [3]. Consumer/fiscal stress, including a household war bill of ~$1,760 with $425 from higher rates and a savings rate at GFC-era lows, could eventually slow growth and cap yields [3]. Prediction markets assign meaningful probabilities to downside volatility; Kalshi-related odds reported September 11 put a 47% probability on the 10-year yield being at or below 4.78% at some point during September 9–30 [9]. Polymarket's September market was reported at 39% for the yield falling below 4.76% at some point between September 3 and September 30 [10][11]. Good Judgment Open's September 30 forecast distribution, as surfaced in search results, assigned a 10.0% chance of at least 5.00% and a 0.9% chance of at least 5.25% [8].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: September 30, 2026
- Expiration: October 02, 2026
- Closes: September 30, 2026
Sources (11)
- 1The Fed - Meeting calendars and information - Federal Reservefederalreserve.gov
- 2How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?polymarket.com
- 3www.cnbc.comOctagon Agentcnbc.com
- 4U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield hits 4.95% ahead of CPI data. - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 5September 2026 Rates Recap - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 6June 17, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible versionfederalreserve.gov
- 710-year Treasury yield above 5% as investors await Fed decisioncnbc.com
- 8Good Judgment® Open | What will be the yield for US 10-year Treasury securities on 30 September 2026?gjopen.com
- 9How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 10How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?polymarket.com
- 11How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September? - Polymarket Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting, featuring updated Summary of Economic Projections, its statement, press conference, rate path, and dot plot, is the largest near-term event risk for the long end of the Treasury market [1].
- Trigger: As of September 16, 2026, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to ~5.001%, its highest level since 2007 [2][3].
- Trigger: Market participants are focused on FOMC rate decisions, with markets pricing in approximately a 58% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the mid-September 2026 meeting [4][5].
- Trigger: Fed funds futures price a >92% likelihood of a 25bp hike on September 16, 2026, which would be the first increase in over three years [3].
Sources (5)
- 1The Fed - Meeting calendars and information - Federal Reservefederalreserve.gov
- 2How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?polymarket.com
- 3www.cnbc.comOctagon Agentcnbc.com
- 4U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield hits 4.95% ahead of CPI data. - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 5September 2026 Rates Recap - CME Groupcmegroup.com
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 15 markets in this series
Outcomes: 15 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KX10YRDIRHM-26SEP30H-T4.99: YES (Sep 15, 2026)
- KX10YRDIRHM-26SEP30H-T4.98: YES (Sep 15, 2026)
- KX10YRDIRHM-26SEP30H-T4.97: YES (Sep 15, 2026)
- KX10YRDIRHM-26SEP30H-T4.96: YES (Sep 15, 2026)
- KX10YRDIRHM-26SEP30H-T4.95: YES (Sep 15, 2026)
