2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 25, 2026?
Short Answer
The 2Y US Treasury yield is likely to be 4.51% or above on September 25, 2026, driven by robust economic data and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance that has kept yields above 4.89% on September 24, 2026; the market prices this outcome at 99.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
A broad sell-off in the U.S. Treasury market drove the sharp repricing in this contract as its resolution date neared. The probability jumped from 16.0% to 47.0% between September 23 and September 24, directly tracking the underlying 2-year Treasury note yield as it climbed to its highest levels since May 2024. The 2-year yield traded in a 4.89%-4.91% range, with intraday highs near 4.95%, placing it well above the market's apparent 4.50% settlement threshold.
This move followed a more modest rise in yields earlier in the week. Around September 19, the 2-year yield had already increased by approximately 12 to 13 basis points to a level of 4.75%-4.76%. The low total traded volume of 746 contracts, including zero volume recorded during the main price jump, suggests the repricing was an adjustment to moves in the underlying cash Treasury market, not a shift driven by heavy participant activity.
- The 2Y US Treasury yield likely remains above 4.51%, trading near 4.89-4.91% on September 24, 2026.
- Robust economic data and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance drive sustained high-rate expectations.
- Current yields around 4.89-4.91% imply stronger probabilities for higher yield thresholds.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.89% or above | 47.0% | 54.3% | Yields were 4.89-4.91% on Sep 24, with intraday highs near 4.95% on Sep 23. |
| 4.65% or above | 97.0% | 98.3% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| 4.83% or above | 60.0% | 85.3% | The 2Y US Treasury yield traded above this threshold at 4.89-4.91% on September 24. |
| 4.79% or above | 93.0% | 98.3% | The 2Y US Treasury yield traded above 4.79% on September 24, 2026, amid sustained upward pressure. |
| 4.77% or above | 82.0% | 98.3% | The 2Y US Treasury yield traded above 4.77% on September 24, 2026, driven by a hawkish Federal Reserve. |
Current Context
The 2-year Treasury yield approaches 5% amid a broad market sell-off. The official 2-year US Treasury note yield for September 25, 2026, is not yet available. As of September 24, 2026, the 2-year Treasury note yield traded between 4.89% and 4.91%, reaching intraday highs near 4.95% on September 23, levels not seen since May 2024 [1][2]. The latest verified constant maturity yield from the Federal Reserve H.15 release for September 23, 2026, was 4.71% [3][4][5][6][7][8]. Prediction markets, specifically on Kalshi, indicate an implied probability of over 90% as of late September 2026 that the 2-year Treasury yield will remain above 4.67% on September 25, 2026 [9][10][11].
Robust US economic data and Fed hawkishness fuel rate hike expectations. Financial markets are experiencing a significant bond sell-off, driven by flash PMI readings indicating the fastest US economic expansion in over five years [12][1][13][3][4][5][6][7][8]. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate target by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, 2026, citing elevated inflation [14][13][3][4][5][6][7][8]. Following this, officials like Governor Michael Barr and New York Fed President John Williams signaled further policy adjustments may be necessary to ensure inflation returns to target [13][1][11][15][16][17][18]. Traders are aggressively pricing approximately 70-75% probability of another rate hike at the October 2026 FOMC meeting, up from 55% a week prior and 11% a month prior [12][10][11][13][3][4][5][6][7][8].
Broader Treasury yields reached multi-decade highs, reflecting ongoing market pressure. On September 23, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.15% intraday, its highest since summer 2007, closing at 5.11% [10][13][3][4][5][6][7][8]. The 30-year yield climbed to 5.444%, the highest since 2004 [3][4][5][6][7][8]. The 2-year Treasury is notably the only maturity still below 5% amidst this broader curve sell-off [3][4][5][6][7][8]. Other contributing factors include rising input costs, Brent crude above $100, and a weak 5-year auction [1][13][3][4][5][6][7][8]. Analysts project the 10-year yield could reach 5.5% within the next year, with yields remaining above 5% through year-end, anticipating at least one more hike by December [13][11].
Sources (18)
- 1Anatomy of a Bond Market Selloffpro.thestreet.com
- 2GLOBAL MARKETS-US Stocks Fall as 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Since 2007english.kontan.co.id
- 3seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
- 4seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
- 5www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
- 6www.investopedia.comOctagon Agentinvestopedia.com
- 7seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
- 8www.theguardian.comOctagon Agenttheguardian.com
- 92Y US Treasury yield on Sep 25, 2026? - Quote su Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 10U.S. Treasury Yields Rise Above 5% Following Business Activity Data and Bond Auctionuk.advfn.com
- 11October Fed Hike Odds Hit 70%, US Yield Breakout Puts EUR/USD at Risk - ActionForexactionforex.com
- 12Global bond sell-off deepens amid fears US economy may be running too hot – business livetheguardian.com
- 13Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this yearcnbc.com
- 142-Year T-Note futures fall to contract low on Fed hike. - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 15Supplying Ample Reserves - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORKnewyorkfed.org
- 16Do You Remember? - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORKnewyorkfed.org
- 17Key Takeaways from President Williams’s Speech at the 2026 U.S. Treasury Market Conferencetellerwindow.newyorkfed.org
- 18Supplying Ample Reservesnewyorkfed.org
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 4.91% or above
📉 September 24, 2026: 13.0pp drop
Price decreased from 29.0% to 16.0%
What happened: The provided research does not identify any social media activity from key figures or viral narratives that would explain the 13.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for the "4.91% or above" outcome [1]. Instead, traditional news on September 23-24, 2026, highlighted a global bond sell-off and rising 2-year US Treasury yields, which were approaching the 4.91% threshold due to hotter-than-expected business activity data and increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. This market context would typically lead to an increase in the probability of the yield reaching or exceeding 4.91%, making the reported drop inconsistent with the primary traditional news drivers during this period [2][3][5]. Therefore, the primary driver for this specific prediction market movement cannot be clearly identified from the provided sources, and social media activity appears irrelevant.
Outcome: 4.87% or above
📈 September 23, 2026: 81.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 81.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market's price movement was the significant rise in the actual 2-year US Treasury yield on September 23, 2026, which reached approximately 4.87%–4.89% [9]. This surge, moving the underlying yield to the outcome threshold, was primarily caused by a hotter-than-expected S&P Global September PMI report indicating strong economic expansion, increasing expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes [10]. No specific social media activity or viral narratives were identified as influencing this market movement. Social media was irrelevant.
Outcome: 4.85% or above
📉 September 22, 2026: 30.0pp drop
Price decreased from 30.0% to 0.0%
What happened: The premise of a 30.0 percentage point (3,000 basis point) drop in the 2Y US Treasury yield on September 22, 2026, is not supported by the provided research and is considered implausible for this market [11][12]. Instead, reports indicated minor fluctuations, with the 2Y yield initially easing by approximately -1 basis point before seeing a reported daily rise of about 9 basis points, and an auction yield near 4.787% [11][13][14][15][12]. Therefore, there is no identifiable primary driver for the stated extreme price movement, as it did not occur [12]. No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives were found to have influenced the actual reported minor movements on this date. Social media was irrelevant.
Outcome: 4.77% or above
📈 September 21, 2026: 24.0pp spike
Price increased from 28.0% to 52.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy and subsequent market repricing of future interest rate expectations. Following the September 16 rate hike and persistent hawkish communication, market participants significantly increased their bets on another Fed hike in October, pushing the 2-year Treasury yield higher towards and above the 4.77% threshold [12]. This shift in expectations, which continued through September 21-22 with a 4.787% auction yield, led to the prediction market indicating a much higher probability for the "4.77% or above" outcome [15]. No social media activity was identified as a driver in the provided information.
Outcome: 4.65% or above
📈 September 19, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 83.0% to 91.0%
What happened: The initial reported 8.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for the 2Y US Treasury yield on September 19, 2026, was actually a more modest rise of approximately 12.6–13 basis points during that week/session, reaching around 4.75%–4.76% [16][17][18][19][20]. This movement was primarily driven by a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations following the Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point rate hike on September 16, 2026, and subsequent remarks from Chair Kevin Warsh, which led markets to price a higher probability of further rate increases [17][18][20][21][22][23]. No credible evidence from the retrieved sources identifies social media activity as a primary driver, with market reporting attributing the shift to established Fed policy and communications [1][16][17][18][19]. Social media was therefore irrelevant to this price movement.
Sources (23)
- 12Y US Treasury yield on Sep 25, 2026? - Quote su Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 210-year Treasury yield continues to rise from 19-year highcnbc.com
- 3U.S. Treasury Yields Rise Above 5% Following Business Activity Data and Bond Auctionuk.advfn.com
- 4U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Surges Past 5% to 19-Year High on Inflation Fears · TrustFinance Newsnews.trustfinance.com
- 5Global bond sell-off deepens amid fears US economy may be running too hot – business livetheguardian.com
- 6Bond Bloodbath: 10-Year Treasury Yield Spikes 13 Basis Points to 5.10% after Hot PMIs with Inflation Written All Over | Wolf Streetwolfstreet.com
- 7Understanding the "Black Wednesday" of US Treasuries: "Perfect Storm" Strikes, "October Rate Hike" Winds Rise | HTX Insightshtx.com
- 8October Fed Hike Odds Hit 70%, US Yield Breakout Puts EUR/USD at Risk - ActionForexactionforex.com
- 9Stocks Drop As Bond Yields Hit 2007 High, Mortgage Rates Break 7%businessinsider.com
- 10US Treasury Yields Surge to 5.09% on Strong PMI Dataheadlinesbriefing.com
- 11U.S. Treasury yields ease as investors await fresh jobs data, Fed commentscnbc.com
- 12Treasury Yields Rise as Traders Increase Bets on Another Fed Rate Hike · TrustFinance Newsnews.trustfinance.com
- 132 Year Auction Tails As Foreign Demand Slidescapwolf.com
- 14US Treasury 2-Year Note Yield Hits 4.787%, Highest Since May 2024 | Gate Newsgate.com
- 152-Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.76%, Pricing Out Fed Rate Cuts | 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
- 16Federal Reserve Board - H.15 - Selected Interest Rates (Daily)federalreserve.gov
- 17Two-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Reaches New Multi-Year High | MarketScreener Hong Konghk.marketscreener.com
- 18Warshs “Dose Of Accommodation” Overread? 2-Year Yield Runs Ahead Of Fed Futures - Global Financial Market Reviewgfmreview.com
- 19Treasury Yields of 2 Years & 3 Years Spike toward 5%, but 10-Year Holds at 5%, Yield Curve Bulges: Some Thoughts on What’s Brewing | Wolf Streetwolfstreet.com
- 20Fed Rate Decision September 2026: First Hike Since 2023 - Marimont Capitalmariemontcapital.com
- 21The Two-Year Yield's New High Is a Forecast About the Fedainvest.com
- 22After the Fed's First Hike in Three Years, the Tape Split at a 5% Treasuryainvest.com
- 23Treasury Yields Are Back at 5%. Don't Read Friday's Muted Close as Convictionainvest.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves based on the 2-year US Treasury yield on September 25, 2026. A "Yes" resolution occurs if the yield on that date is at or above a specified percentage (e.g., 4.85%), while a "No" resolution occurs if it falls below that percentage. The maximum payout date for this market is September 25, 2026, and no special settlement conditions are specified in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.51% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| 4.81% or above | $0.79 | $0.56 | 98% |
| 4.65% or above | $1.00 | $0.05 | 97% |
| 4.67% or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 95% |
| 4.61% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 94% |
| 4.63% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 94% |
| 4.79% or above | $0.94 | $0.39 | 93% |
| 4.55% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 91% |
| 4.73% or above | $1.00 | $0.10 | 90% |
| 4.77% or above | $0.97 | $0.09 | 82% |
| 4.87% or above | $0.43 | $0.99 | 81% |
| 4.75% or above | $0.99 | $0.10 | 77% |
| 4.53% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 71% |
| 4.85% or above | $0.48 | $0.91 | 71% |
| 4.83% or above | $0.70 | $0.75 | 60% |
| 4.71% or above | $1.00 | $0.07 | 48% |
| 4.89% or above | $0.27 | $0.94 | 47% |
| 4.91% or above | $0.13 | $1.00 | 16% |
| 4.99% or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 12% |
| 4.95% or above | $0.06 | $1.00 | 11% |
| 4.97% or above | $0.03 | $1.00 | 10% |
| 4.93% or above | $0.09 | $1.00 | 9% |
| 4.57% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| 4.59% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| 4.69% or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 0% |
Market Discussion
The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield was reported at 4.947% on September 24, 2026, following the FOMC's September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal-funds target range to 3.75%–4.00% and projections for at least one more hike [1][2][3][4]. Predictions for September 25, 2026, vary, with best estimates ranging from approximately 4.70% to 5.0%, and a market showing 92% implied probability for 4.67% or above as of September 23, 2026 [5][6][7][8][9]. This reflects a "higher-for-longer" sentiment, with market commentators emphasizing sensitivity to oil prices and geopolitical headlines [10][11].
Sources (11)
- 1US Treasury yields surge to multi-year highs on oil spike, strong PMIsaninews.in
- 2The Fed - September 16, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible versionfederalreserve.gov
- 3Fed Hikes to 3.75–4.00%: 12–0 Vote, Dot Plot 4.1%, Market Reaction — Ruslan Averinaverin.com
- 4Transcript of Chairman Warsh’s Press Conference, September 16, 2026federalreserve.gov
- 52Y US Treasury yield on Sep 25, 2026? - Quote su Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 62-Year T-Note futures fall to contract low on Fed hike. - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 7Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 2 Years Hence (THREEFF2) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 8Treasury yields jump 24 bps as the Fed weighs a rate hike. - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 9FedWatch - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 1010Y Treasury yield hit 5.06% this morning — a new 19-year high. Fed Gov. Barr said "further policy adjustments are likely" to get inflation to 2%; markets now price ~55% odds of an October hike (was 9% a month ago). 5%+ risk-free yields pressure growth multiples — Nasdaq -1%, 2Y at a cycle high, banks squeezed by a flatter curve. Watch 10Y 5.00% as the line; a break above 5.10% risks another compression leg. Energy is the offset with oil back over 00. Not financial advice.threads.com
- 11Reddit Sentiment Analyzerreddit.sentinel-team.org
5. Trust Index
“4.85% or above” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.
Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score76Good
Market integrity is low (62), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score63Caution
Trust score74Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. Which key economic data releases prior to the October 2026 FOMC meeting could alter the market's current expectation for another rate hike?
| October hike probability | 69.7% (as of September 24, 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| September employment report release | October 2 [4][5][6][7][8] |
| September CPI report release | October 14 [4][5][6][7][8] |
Crucial economic reports will significantly shape October's Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Prior to the October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting, the most impactful economic data releases expected to influence market expectations for a rate hike are the September employment report, due October 2, and September Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for October 14 [4][5][6][7][8]. These reports are considered crucial for assessing inflation and will significantly impact the odds of a rate hike before the meeting [7][8][9][10]. As of September 24, 2026, market pricing indicates a 69.7% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in October [1][2][3].
Key inflation and labor reports could shift rate hike probabilities. A stronger-than-expected September employment report or firm September CPI figures could push these hike odds higher, while softer readings might lead to market expectations returning to a hold as the base case [1][6][7][8][11][9]. The September Producer Price Index (PPI) report on October 15 will also serve to either reinforce or challenge the inflation signals from the CPI data [6][7][8]. Other relevant releases include the August Personal Income and Outlays report, featuring the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauge, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric, on September 30 [12][13]. While secondary to payrolls and CPI, releases such as the August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on September 29 and the third estimate of second-quarter GDP on September 30 can also influence perceptions of demand and overall economic activity [13][8].
Some economic data releases will occur too late to influence October's FOMC decision. Data including the Employment Cost Index for third-quarter 2026 and the September Personal Income and Outlays report will be released after the October FOMC meeting, thus not affecting pre-meeting market pricing for this particular meeting [6][7][8][14][12][15][16].
Sources (16)
- 1October Fed Hike Odds Hit 70%, US Yield Breakout Puts EUR/USD at Risk - ActionForexactionforex.com
- 2Fed Rate Odds for October 2026: What Kalshi, Polymarket and Futures Are Pricing After Warsh's First Hikepredictionmarketspicks.com
- 3US Treasury Yields Mixed as 10Y-2Y Spread Hits March Low on Fed Hawkish Tone | Gate Newsgate.com
- 4Calendar: October 2026 - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov
- 5The Fed - Meeting calendars and information - Federal Reservefederalreserve.gov
- 6Schedule of Selected Releases for October 2026blsmon1.bls.gov
- 7Schedule of Selected Releases for October 2026bls.gov
- 8Schedule of Selected Releases for October 2026bls.gov
- 9Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situationbls.gov
- 10Consumer Price Index News Release - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov
- 11October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedmitrade.com
- 12Release Schedule | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
- 132026 U.S. Economic Calendar: CPI, Jobs, PCE & Fed Datesfedratecalc.com
- 14Release Schedule | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
- 15Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Indexbea.gov
- 16BEA 26-37 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
7. What recent statements from Federal Reserve officials in September 2026 corroborate the market's pricing of continued high interest rates?
| Policy Rate Projection 2026-2027 | 4.1% (median appropriate policy rate for year-end 2026 and 2027) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Officials Expecting More Hikes | 16 of 18 SEP participants [4][5] |
| FOMC Action | Federal-funds target raised unanimously (September 15–16, 2026) [1][6][2] |
Federal Reserve officials strongly affirmed their commitment to sustained high interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously increased the federal-funds target during its September 15–16, 2026 meeting. This action was explicitly taken due to elevated inflation and the necessity for further policy interventions to ensure a timely return to the 2% target [1][6][2].
Forward guidance and official statements reinforce expectations for prolonged restrictive policy. The September Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) reinforced this stance, setting the median appropriate policy rate at 4.1% for both year-end 2026 and 2027. This projection represents a significant upward revision from previous forecasts, aligning with an expectation of prolonged restrictive policy and suggesting no expected easing throughout 2027 [1][2][3]. Chairman Kevin Warsh noted that broad financial conditions were not restrictive, implying room for additional borrowing-cost increases [6][7]. Governor Michael Barr elaborated on September 23 that inflation was above target and not trending towards 2% promptly, necessitating more policy adjustments [8]. The sentiment among officials is consistent with continued restrictive policy, with 16 out of 18 SEP participants anticipating at least one more rate hike [4][5]. Persistent inflation was also identified by New York Fed policy adviser Ellen Correia Golay as a factor behind increased Treasury long-end yields on September 21 [9]. These signals collectively indicate that short-term yields are likely to remain elevated due to the recent policy rate increase and officials' sustained hawkish outlook [10][11].
Sources (11)
- 1Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementfederalreserve.gov
- 2The Fed - September 16, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible versionfederalreserve.gov
- 3Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026newyorkfed.org
- 4Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this yearcnbc.com
- 5Fed delivers hike one, signals onebbvaresearch.com
- 6Transcript of Chairman Warsh’s Press Conference, September 16, 2026federalreserve.gov
- 7Fed hikes rates in search of 'timelier' drop in inflation, sees more tightening ahead | Reutersreuters.com
- 8Speech by Governor Barr on housing - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov
- 9Transcript of Ellen Correia Golay on the Macro Musings Podcast - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORKnewyorkfed.org
- 10Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity...fred.stlouisfed.org
- 11Interest Rate Statistics | U.S. Department of the Treasuryhome.treasury.gov
8. How has the spread between the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields evolved throughout 2026, and what does it signal for near-term Fed policy?
| 2Y-10Y Spread (Jan 2, 2026) | +72 bp [1] |
|---|---|
| 2Y-10Y Spread H1 Low | +27 bp on June 18 [1] |
| Probability of Oct Rate Hike | 70%–71% (as of Sep 24) [2][3] |
The 2s10s US Treasury yield spread fluctuated but remained positive in 2026. The spread, which never inverted, started the year at approximately +72 basis points (bp) on January 2. It gradually narrowed through the first half of the year, reaching a low of +27 bp by June 18. This flattening was primarily attributed to a 67 bp rise in the 2-year yield [1]. Following this period, the curve re-steepened over the summer, reaching about +53 bp by August 17, before narrowing once more in September to an indicated range of +22–25 bp as of September 24 [4][5][6][3].
The yield curve's evolution signals hawkish near-term Federal Reserve policy. This assessment is supported by rising front-end yields and recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) actions. The FOMC unanimously raised its target range by 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, marking the first rate hike since 2023, with future projections suggesting additional increases are probable [7][8]. Market expectations align with this stance, as futures pricing indicates approximately a 70%–71% probability of another 25 bp hike at the October meeting, based on data from September 24 [2][3]. The positive 2s10s slope, coupled with rising front-end yields, thus reinforces expectations for restrictive policy and a significant risk of near-term rate hikes, rather than hinting at imminent rate cuts [6][2][3].
Sources (8)
- 1Daily Treasury Rates - U.S. Department of the Treasuryhome.treasury.gov
- 2Global bond sell-off deepens amid fears US economy may be running too hot – business livetheguardian.com
- 3U.S. Treasury Yields Rise Above 5% Following Business Activity Data and Bond Auctionuk.advfn.com
- 4The flattening that didn't stick | DistillFindistillfin.com
- 510Y-2Y Yield Spread: 41 bps (Sep 8, 2026) | Convexconvextrade.com
- 610-year Treasury yield continues to rise from 19-year highcnbc.com
- 7Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementfederalreserve.gov
- 8Fed rate decision September 2026: Rates rise to 3.75%-4%cnbc.com
9. Which official U.S. Treasury or Federal Reserve report will provide the definitive 2-year yield for September 25, 2026, and on what date will it be published?
| Definitive Yield Source | Federal Reserve Board's H.15 Selected Interest Rates [1] |
|---|---|
| Expected Publication Date | September 25, 2026 [1][2] |
| Expected Publication Time | Approximately 4:15 p.m. Eastern [3][4][5][1] |
The Federal Reserve's H.15 report will provide the definitive 2-year yield. The Federal Reserve Board's H.15 Selected Interest Rates daily release is the definitive source for the 2-year Treasury constant-maturity rate [1]. This report is anticipated for publication on September 25, 2026, which falls on a Friday [1][2]. Typically, the H.15 report is posted Monday through Friday around 4:15 p.m. Eastern Time, unless there are holidays or Board closures [3][4][5][1]. Given that September 25, 2026, is a Friday with no indicated holiday or closure, that day's 2-year constant-maturity yield is expected to be published around 4:15 p.m. ET [2][5].
The H.15 is the primary source for the standard 2-year yield. The H.15 is considered the clearest definitive report specifically for the standard 2-year constant-maturity yield [2][6][7]. While the U.S. Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates also offers an official 2-year par yield after market close, the Federal Reserve's H.15 remains the preferred source for the constant-maturity rate [2][6][7].
Sources (7)
- 1Economic Release Calendar - H.15 Selected Interest Rates | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 2Daily Treasury Rates | U.S. Department of the Treasuryhome.treasury.gov
- 3Federal Reserve Board - H.15 - Selected Interest Rates (Daily) - September 14, 2026federalreserve.gov
- 4Federal Reserve Board - H.15 - Selected Interest Rates (Daily) - September 18, 2026federalreserve.gov
- 5Federal Reserve Board - H.15 - Selected Interest Rates (Daily) - September 23, 2026federalreserve.gov
- 6Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity...fred.stlouisfed.org
- 7Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS2) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
10. How do year-end 2026 forecasts for the 2-year Treasury yield from major investment banks compare to the levels implied by Kalshi's prediction markets?
| J.P. Morgan 2026 Year-End 2Y Yield | 4.2% [1] |
|---|---|
| Deutsche Bank 2026 Year-End 2Y Yield | 4.3% [2] |
| Prediction Market Sep 2026 2Y Yield (>=4.83%) | 53% probability [3] |
Conversely, prediction market snapshots imply a notably higher near-term yield of around 4.7%-4.8% for September 25, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. For instance, a snapshot from September 23 indicated a 53% probability of the yield being 4.83% or above, and another reported a 92% probability for 4.67% or above on the same date [3][4]. However, this comparison is not direct due to the prediction market date preceding year-end, and the markets typically provide probabilities by strike rather than a single point estimate [1][2][3][4]. The available evidence, which includes threshold probabilities and lacks live price or bucket probabilities, prevents a precise numerical prediction market-implied yield from being responsibly calculated [3][5][6][7][8].
Sources (8)
- 12026 Economic Outlook [Midyear Update] | J.P. Morganjpmorgan.com
- 2Deutsche Bank Raises 2-Year Treasury Yield Forecast to 4.3% After FOMC Meeting | Gate Newsgate.com
- 32Y US Treasury yield on Sep 25, 2026? Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 42Y US Treasury yield on Sep 25, 2026? - Quote su Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 5Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity...fred.stlouisfed.org
- 6Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (WGS2YR) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 7Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS2) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 8Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (GS2) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
A Kalshi-style contract on the Sep. 25, 2026 U.S. Treasury par yield showed 4.67% or above at 92% implied probability on Sep. 23, 2026 [1][2][3]. This contrasted with a dated Financial Forecast Center model from Aug. 5, 2026, which projected a September 2026 monthly average 2-year Treasury rate of 4.10% with an average error of "".10 percentage points [3]. The Federal Reserve’s latest H.15 data indicated the 2-year Treasury constant-maturity yield at 4.76% on Sep. 18, 2026 [2]. The FOMC meeting occurred Sep. 15–16, 2026, with a 25-basis-point federal-funds target range hike to 3.75%–4.00% announced Sep. 16, effective Sep. 17 [4]. Markets priced approximately a 58% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at that FOMC meeting as of Sep 9 [5]. By Sep 24, Fed hike odds at the next FOMC meeting stood at 75% [6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. The 2-year Treasury yield had traded near multi-year highs around ~4.5–4.6%, reaching 4.58% on Sep 10, 2026 [7][8][9][10][11][12].
For Sep. 25, 2026, key U.S. data releases included August durable-goods orders at 8:30 a.m. ET and final September University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations at 10:00 a.m. ET [13][14][15]. Stronger durable goods or firmer consumer sentiment and inflation expectations would generally be bearish for Treasury prices and bullish for the 2-year yield, while weaker data would generally support Treasury prices and pressure the 2-year yield lower [13][15]. The surrounding week featured a Sep. 23 U.S. 5-year Treasury auction and a Sep. 24 U.S. 7-year Treasury auction [16][17]. Multiple Federal Reserve speaker appearances and the Sep. 24–25 Cleveland Fed's Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics conference, including a policy panel, could create headline risk [16][17][18]. No major BLS inflation, payrolls, or employment release was scheduled for Sep. 25, 2026 [19]. Similarly, no major BEA release was scheduled for Sep. 25, 2026 [20].
Broader factors influencing yields included a surge in S&P Global September PMI to 58.4, sparking a sharp Treasury sell-off, with approximately three rate hikes now priced in for this cycle [1][3][7][8][9][10][11][12]. WTI crude prices above $92–93 on Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz strikes fed energy-driven inflation fears [1][6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. NY Fed's Williams indicated another rate hike "may be appropriate by year-end," and Fed's Barkin warned inflation pressures will persist [6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. Heavy government borrowing, strong issuance, and rising term premium reinforced a "higher-for-longer" regime [7][8][9][10][11][12]. Conversely, Waller (Sep 3) was open to holding if disinflation continued [7][8][9][10][11][12]. The Trump–Xi summit on Sep 24–25 with a trade truce extended into January, and de-escalation of the Iran conflict, could mark a yield peak [1][6][13][7][8][9][10][11][12]. Softer CPI/PCE prints or a patient Fed message could also pull the policy-sensitive 2-year yield down fastest [7][8][9][10][11][12].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: September 25, 2026
- Expiration: September 27, 2026
- Closes: September 25, 2026
Sources (20)
- 12Y US Treasury yield on Sep 25, 2026? - Quote su Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2Federal Reserve Board - H.15 - Selected Interest Rates (Daily)federalreserve.gov
- 32 Year U.S. Treasury Rate Forecastforecasts.org
- 4Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementnewyorkfed.org
- 5September 2026 Rates Recap - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 6Calendar: September 2026 - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov
- 7seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
- 8seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
- 9www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
- 10www.investopedia.comOctagon Agentinvestopedia.com
- 11seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
- 12www.theguardian.comOctagon Agenttheguardian.com
- 13Forex Economic Calendar for September 25, 2026forex.tradingcharts.com
- 14Calendar | Forex Factoryforexfactory.com
- 15Economic Calendar - Stooqstooq.com
- 162026 Economic Calendarus.econoday.com
- 17Economic Calendar for the Week of 9/21 Through 9/25cscottgarliss.substack.com
- 18Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2026clevelandfed.org
- 19Schedule of Selected Releases for September 2026data.bls.gov
- 20Release Schedule | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 13 resolved YES, 7 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXUST2A-26SEP18-T4.88: NO (Sep 18, 2026)
- KXUST2A-26SEP18-T4.86: NO (Sep 18, 2026)
- KXUST2A-26SEP18-T4.84: NO (Sep 18, 2026)
- KXUST2A-26SEP18-T4.82: NO (Sep 18, 2026)
- KXUST2A-26SEP18-T4.80: NO (Sep 18, 2026)
