5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026?
Short Answer
The 5Y US Treasury yield is likely to be 4.8% or above on September 30, 2026, following the September 23, 2026, auction clearing at 5.033% and yields reported above 5% on September 24, 2026; the market prices this at 90.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market repriced sharply higher following a weak U.S. Treasury 5-year note auction on September 23. The Treasury's sale of $70 billion in notes cleared at a high yield of 5.033% with a 3.1-basis-point tail and a low 2.21x bid-to-cover ratio. The poor demand metrics from the auction were a primary driver of the increase in the market's implied probability.
The upward pressure on yields was sustained by subsequent developments. On September 24, stronger September business activity, elevated energy prices, and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary contributed to pushing yields on longer-maturity Treasuries above 5%. These factors reinforced the sentiment established by the weak auction result, solidifying the market's higher price level.
- The 5-year Treasury auction cleared at 5.033%, pushing yields above 4.78% for September 30. Reported yields above 5% and hawkish Fed repricing suggest continued upward pressure.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.64% or above | 76.0% | 95.2% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| 4.78% or above | 77.0% | 95.2% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| 4.98% or above | 44.0% | 91.3% | Treasury auction results and reported rising yields indicate an upward shift in 5Y US Treasury yield expectations. |
| 4.4% or above | 98.0% | 99.1% | Recent 5-year Treasury auction cleared at 5.033%, with yields reported rising above 5%. |
| 4.36% or above | 83.0% | 99.1% | Recent 5-year Treasury auction cleared at 5.033%, with yields reported rising above 5%. |
Current Context
The market for the September 30, 2026, 5-year US Treasury yield has repriced sharply higher. On September 23, the U.S. Treasury sold $70 billion of 5-year notes at a 5.033% high yield, with a 3.1-basis-point tail and 2.21x bid-to-cover, while demand was characterized as weak [1][2][3]. The following day, September 24, Treasury yields across longer maturities rose above 5%, driven by stronger September business activity, elevated energy prices, hawkish Federal Reserve commentary, and the weak 5-year auction outcome [4][5]. The Federal Reserve had increased its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, with projections indicating potential for additional tightening [5].
Earlier forecasts and data points indicate a rapid shift in market expectations. A prediction-market signal on September 9 reported 92% odds for the yield to be 4.40% or above for September 30, 2026, though this snapshot may not reflect live pricing on September 24 [6][2][3]. Model-based forecasts from earlier periods projected significantly lower rates: Financial Forecast Center estimated a 4.41% average for September 2026, Econforecasting's August 25 consensus showed 4.49%, and Trading Economics previously estimated 4.39% by quarter-end [7][8][9]. Official FRED data for the daily 5-year constant-maturity yield (DGS5) were last updated September 21, extending only through September 18, 2026, and do not yet provide the September 30, 2026, value [10][11]. The latest retrieved monthly benchmark (GS5) was 4.38% for August 2026, up from 3.94% in April [12]. Cleveland Fed nowcasts on September 14 projected September 2026 year-over-year CPI at 3.43% and core CPI at 2.39%, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimated 2026 Q3 real GDP growth at 5.0796% SAAR on September 17 [13][14].
An analyst synthesis estimates the September 30, 2026, 5-year Treasury par yield at approximately 5.0%, with a plausible range of 4.8%–5.2% [6][1][2][3][4]. This estimate reflects the September 23 auction clearing at 5.033%, the reported September 24 rates selloff, and prior prediction-market sentiment already above 4.4% [6][1][2][3][4]. Key catalysts immediately around September 30 include the September 23 and 24 Treasury auctions, the post-September 16 Fed repricing, and scheduled data releases such as BLS employment figures, Cleveland Fed trimmed-mean PCE, and BEA GDP estimates [1][4][5][15][16][17][18]. Upside risks to the yield include hotter inflation, stronger economic growth, or a more hawkish repricing by the Fed, while downside risks involve weaker activity or softer inflation [13][14][19].
Sources (19)
- 1Primer: US to sell USD 70bln of 5-year notes at 18:00BST/13:00EDT | Newsquawknewsquawk.com
- 2Treasury 5-Year Auction Tails 3.1bps as Demand Cools | Fazen Marketsfazen.markets
- 35-Year Treasury Auction Yields 5.033%, 2nd Biggest Tail Ever · TFTCtftc.io
- 4U.S. Treasury Yields Rise Above 5% Following Business Activity Data and Bond Auctionuk.advfn.com
- 5Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this yearcnbc.com
- 65Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 75 Year Treasury Rate Forecastforecasts.org
- 85 year treasury note yield - forecast chart - Econforecastingeconforecasting.com
- 9United States 5 Year Note Yield - Quote - Chart - Trading Economicstradingeconomics.com
- 10Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS5) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 11Table Data - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 12Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (GS5) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 13Inflation Nowcastingclevelandfed.org
- 14GDPNow (GDPNOW) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 15Schedule of Selected Releases for September 2026data.bls.gov
- 162026 Economic Release Calendar - Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 17GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantaatlantafed.org
- 18Release Schedule | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
- 19September 2026 Rates Recap - CME Groupcmegroup.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 4.82% or above
📈 September 23, 2026: 84.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 84.0%
What happened: The reported "84.0 percentage point spike" in the 5-year US Treasury yield on September 23, 2026, appears to be an error, as the actual movement was approximately 0.15 percentage points (15 basis points), with the yield briefly crossing 5% for the first time since 2007 [1][2][3]. The primary drivers for this actual yield increase were a weak $70 billion 5-year Treasury auction, which indicated cooling demand [4][5][6], and the release of a strong September flash U.S. Composite PMI of 58.4, signaling robust private-sector expansion and renewed input-cost inflation [2][7][8]. This economic data heightened market expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening [2][7][8]. No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives was identified in the provided research as leading, coinciding with, or otherwise driving this market movement. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this price movement.
📉 September 22, 2026: 41.0pp drop
Price decreased from 41.0% to 0.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the prediction market's price movement was traditional news indicating modest easing in U.S. Treasury yields on September 22, 2026, as investors awaited ADP employment data and Federal Reserve comments, alongside lower oil prices [9][10][11]. This general sentiment for lower yield expectations directionally supported a decrease in the probability of the "4.82% or above" outcome. However, the reported 41.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market vastly exceeded the actual 1-2 basis point yield declines observed in the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, rendering such a dramatic actual yield movement economically implausible [9][10][12]. Social media was irrelevant, as no specific activity was identified as a contributing factor.
📉 September 21, 2026: 53.0pp drop
Price decreased from 53.0% to 0.0%
What happened: The stated 53.0 percentage point drop in the 5Y US Treasury yield on September 21, 2026, is highly implausible, as bond yields do not fluctuate by such a magnitude, and all recent reporting indicates yields were surging, not falling [13]. While some reports noted a modest Treasury rally for other sectors driven by lower oil prices on September 21, this did not substantiate a significant drop in the 5-year yield, particularly not 53.0 percentage points [14][15][16][17]. Crucially, no evidence was found of any social media activity from key figures or major news events on or around September 21, 2026, that would cause such a dramatic decline [13]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, as the described price movement itself lacks supporting evidence and contradicts prevailing market conditions.
📉 September 18, 2026: 27.0pp drop
Price decreased from 27.0% to 0.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 27.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market price was the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike on September 16, 2026 [18]. This policy decision prompted a notable decline in U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities by September 18, 2026, as markets reacted and stabilized inflation expectations [18][19]. The fall in yields made it less likely for the 5-year yield to be 4.82% or above on September 30, 2026, leading to the observed market movement. Social media activity was not a primary driver and appears irrelevant based on the provided information.
Outcome: 4.8% or above
📈 September 20, 2026: 50.0pp spike
Price increased from 29.0% to 79.0%
What happened: The reported "50.0 percentage point spike" for the 5Y US Treasury yield is dimensionally incorrect; evidence indicates movements of tens of basis points, not percentage points, around September 2026 [20][21][22]. The primary driver for the observed upward movement in yields during mid-September was the Federal Reserve's hawkish decision on September 16, 2026. The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% and issued projections implying further hikes, leading to a repricing of rate expectations [21][23][24][25]. Social media activity was not identified as a driver, with research explicitly stating no specific social-media catalyst was found for the yield movements [26][27][28][29][30][31].
Sources (31)
- 1US Treasury Five-Year Yields Breach 5% for First Time Since 2007bloomberg.com
- 2Trading Day: US yields cross 5% threshold | 95 KQDS95kqds.com
- 3US 5-Year Treasury Yield Surges 15 Basis Points as Markets Price In Extended Fed Tighteningpro.edgex.exchange
- 4Treasury 5-Year Auction Tails 3.1bps as Demand Cools | Fazen Marketsfazen.markets
- 55-Year Treasury Auction Yields 5.033%, 2nd Biggest Tail Ever · TFTCtftc.io
- 65-Year Note auction: WEAKhelious.io
- 7US Growth Hits Five-Year High: PMI 58.4 Complicates Fed's Next Rate Calltechtimes.com
- 8U.S. Business Activity Hits More-Than-Five-Year High as September Flash Composite PMI Jumps to 58.4; Input Costs… | Traders Agencytradersagency.com
- 9U.S. Treasury yields ease as investors await fresh jobs data, Fed commentscnbc.com
- 10Treasuries-US yields dip as investors weigh lower oil versus Fed rate-hike expectations - TLT News | Ralliesrallies.ai
- 11Treasury Yields Ease Ahead Of Jobs Data And Fed Talkscapwolf.com
- 12How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September? - Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 13invezz.comOctagon Agent
- 14Treasury Yields Ease as Oil Falls After Fed Rate Hikemarketinsider.net
- 15Treasury Yields Slip as Oil Retreatsbriefs.co
- 16Treasuries-US 10-yield eases with lower oil, European yields - TLT News | Ralliesrallies.ai
- 17US Treasury yields fall amid global decline in rates — CNBC | UA.NEWSua.news
- 18US Treasury Yields Drop 5bp as Inflation Expectations Stabilize After Fed Hike | Gate Newsgate.com
- 19US Treasury Yields Fall After Fed Rate Hike as Investors Bet on Peak Ratesmarket.news
- 205Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 21Fed Rate Decision September 2026: First Hike Since 2023 - Marimont Capitalmariemontcapital.com
- 22Federal Reserve Board - H.15 - Selected Interest Rates (Daily)federalreserve.gov
- 23The Fed - September 16, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible versionfederalreserve.gov
- 24US Treasuries Market Commentary September - Greystonegreystone.com
- 25Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementnewyorkfed.org
- 2610-year Treasury yield briefly ticks back above 4.8% as oil prices risecnbc.com
- 27Treasury Yields of 2 Years & 3 Years Spike toward 5%, but 10-Year Holds at 5%, Yield Curve Bulges: Some Thoughts on What’s Brewing | Wolf Streetwolfstreet.com
- 28Short-Dated Treasuries Rally as Fed Rate Bets Risebriefs.co
- 29Treasury Trading at the Close - Liberty Street Economicslibertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
- 30Do You Remember? - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORKnewyorkfed.org
- 31Supplying Ample Reserves - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORKnewyorkfed.org
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This prediction market resolves "Yes" if the 5-year US Treasury yield is 5% or above on the designated Wednesday. Conversely, it resolves "No" if the yield is below 5% on that day. The resolution event occurs on a Wednesday, and the maximum payout date for this market is September 30, 2026, with no other special settlement conditions specified.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.4% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 98% |
| 4.5% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 93% |
| 4.42% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 90% |
| 4.8% or above | $0.99 | $0.14 | 90% |
| 4.76% or above | $0.99 | $0.08 | 89% |
| 4.54% or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 88% |
| 4.84% or above | $0.97 | $0.18 | 86% |
| 4.7% or above | $0.99 | $0.06 | 85% |
| 4.72% or above | $0.99 | $0.07 | 85% |
| 4.68% or above | $0.99 | $0.06 | 84% |
| 4.82% or above | $0.98 | $0.16 | 84% |
| 4.9% or above | $0.90 | $0.24 | 84% |
| 4.36% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 83% |
| 5% or above | $0.60 | $0.66 | 83% |
| 4.66% or above | $0.99 | $0.05 | 82% |
| 4.88% or above | $0.92 | $0.23 | 81% |
| 4.86% or above | $0.93 | $0.23 | 79% |
| 4.78% or above | $0.99 | $0.07 | 77% |
| 4.38% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 76% |
| 4.64% or above | $0.99 | $0.07 | 76% |
| 4.74% or above | $0.99 | $0.08 | 75% |
| 4.96% or above | $0.77 | $0.24 | 75% |
| 4.46% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 72% |
| 4.94% or above | $0.82 | $0.24 | 69% |
| 4.44% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 64% |
| 4.98% or above | $0.65 | $0.57 | 44% |
| 5.04% or above | $0.43 | $0.84 | 39% |
| 5.02% or above | $0.50 | $0.74 | 36% |
| 4.92% or above | $0.87 | $0.24 | 20% |
| 4.48% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| 4.52% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| 4.56% or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| 4.58% or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| 4.6% or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| 4.62% or above | $0.99 | $0.03 | 0% |
Market Discussion
No authoritative source provides a direct market-implied forecast for the September 30, 2026 5-year US Treasury yield, with the official settlement source being the U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates [1]. However, early-September observations for the 5-year constant-maturity yield were near 4.5% [2]. By September 24, 2026, market commentary described a hawkish/high-yield regime driven by inflation and energy concerns, with some reports claiming the 5-year yield had moved above 5% [3].
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score78Good
Market integrity is low (66), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score48High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $100 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score72Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What key economic data releases between now and September 30, 2026, could cause the Federal Reserve to alter its monetary policy outlook?
| PCE Report Date | Wednesday, September 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| JOLTS Report Date | Tuesday, September 29 at 10:00 a.m. ET [1][3][7][8][9][10] |
| Current PCE Inflation | 3.7% year-over-year in July [6][11][12] |
Key economic data releases will influence Federal Reserve monetary policy outlook. The August 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report, specifically its PCE and core PCE price indexes, and the August 2026 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report are primary releases that could prompt the Federal Reserve to alter its monetary policy outlook by September 30, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. The highest-impact scheduled release is the BEA's August 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report, which is due on Wednesday, September 30, at 8:30 a.m. ET [1][2][3][4][5][6]. This report includes the Fed's preferred PCE and core PCE inflation measures, alongside personal income, consumer spending, and saving data [1][2][3][4][5][6]. A strong August PCE print would reinforce a higher-for-longer policy interpretation, especially given July's PCE inflation was 3.7% year-over-year [6][11][12]. Concurrently, the BEA will release the third estimate of Q2 2026 GDP on September 30, which includes a 2026 annual benchmark update to national and regional accounts, potentially revising historical economic data [1][2][4][5][13][11][12].
Other critical reports also provide insights into economic conditions. Before these, the BLS will release the JOLTS report for August 2026 on Tuesday, September 29, at 10:00 a.m. ET, detailing job openings, hires, quits, and layoffs [1][3][7][8][9][10]. Any significant change in labor market tightness or deterioration could alter expectations for the Fed's policy path [1][3][7][8][9][10]. The Census Advance Report on Durable Goods for August, scheduled for Friday, September 25, is a secondary growth catalyst that can affect business investment and Q3 growth estimates [1]. The official schedules do not list any CPI, PPI, or national payrolls reports for release between September 24 and September 30, as earlier August releases for these metrics are already available [1][2][3][7][14]. Additionally, the FOMC meeting and Summary of Economic Projections from September 15–16 have already occurred [15][16].
Sources (16)
- 15Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2Kalshi Markets: US Home Sales, Diesel Prices, Trumppredictionnewsnetwork.com
- 3Schedule of Selected Releases for September 2026data.bls.gov
- 4Release Schedule | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
- 5Release Schedule | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
- 6Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Indexbea.gov
- 7Schedule of Selected Releases 2026bls.gov
- 8Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary - 2026 M07 Resultsbls.gov
- 9Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey News Release - 2026 M07 Resultsbls.gov
- 10Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, Release Date: 2026-06-30 | ALFRED | St. Louis Fedalfred.stlouisfed.org
- 11GDP (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits, 2nd Quarter 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
- 12GDP (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits, 2nd Quarter 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
- 13Information on 2026 Annual Updates to the National, Industry, State, and County Statistics | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
- 14Schedule of Selected Releases for September 2026bls.gov
- 15Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026newyorkfed.org
- 16Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementnewyorkfed.org
7. What do the demand metrics from the late-September 2026 Treasury auctions signal about investor appetite for U.S. debt?
| 5-year auction cleared yield | 5.033% [1] |
|---|---|
| Bid-to-cover ratio | 2.212 [1] |
| Indirect awards percentage | 54.31% [1] |
The late-September 2026 Treasury auction revealed weak investor demand for U.S. debt. The September 23 $70 billion 5-year Treasury auction was notably weak, signaling that buyers required a materially higher yield and that foreign and institutional demand had diminished [1]. On September 24, the market reacted negatively, describing the auction as poor, with Treasury yields surging and the 5-year yield moving above 5%. This was consistent with a higher term premium and weaker marginal appetite for new U.S. debt [2][3].
Auction metrics significantly underperformed recent participation and allocation norms. Specifically, the 5-year auction cleared at 5.033%, tailing the when-issued market by 3.1 basis points [1]. Its bid-to-cover ratio fell to 2.212 from 2.371, indirect awards decreased to 54.31% from 61.51%, and primary dealers absorbed 15.8% [1]. These results were below recent six-auction averages, which included a 2.33x bid-to-cover, 65.2% average indirect participation, and 12.9% average dealer allocation [4]. Indirect-bid purchases are often considered a good proxy for foreign purchases of Treasury notes [5][6].
Demand for Treasuries is price-sensitive, requiring greater compensation for risk. This interpretation suggests that investors have not abandoned Treasuries but are selective and demand greater compensation amid fiscal, inflation, and supply concerns [7]. For the prediction market concerning the September 30, 2026 five-year yield, the available evidence supports a broad mid-to-high 4% range rather than a precise point forecast, as auction-demand evidence alone is insufficient to justify a narrow level or a strong directional call [8][9]. Furthermore, September 30 market pricing may also be influenced by technical rebalancing flows in addition to auction fundamentals [10].
Sources (10)
- 1$70B 5-Year Auction Yields 5.033%, Second-Biggest Tail on Recordtftc.io
- 2Morning Bid: Bonds bomb | Reutersreuters.com
- 3U.S. yields surge past 5% as hot PMI data and failed auctions spark...investing.com
- 4Primer: US to sell USD 70bln of 5-year notes at 18:00BST/13:00EDTnewsquawk.com
- 5Who Buys Treasury Securities at Auction? - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORKnewyorkfed.org
- 6Who Buys Treasury Securities at Auction?newyorkfed.org
- 7As U.S. debt mounts, investors demand higher returns to lendtheglobeandmail.com
- 8Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS5) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 9Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 7-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS7) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 10Treasury Trading at the Close - Liberty Street Economicslibertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
8. How do model-based forecasts from institutions like the Financial Forecast Center compare to the market-implied rates from recent Treasury auctions?
| FFC September 2026 Forecast | 4.84% (September monthly average) [1] |
|---|---|
| September 23, 2026 Auction Yield | 5.033% [2][3] |
| Market Anchor for Sep 30, 2026 | Approximately 5.03% [2][4][5][6] |
Model-based forecasts for 5-year Treasury rates vary in accuracy. The Financial Forecast Center (FFC) projected a 4.84% monthly average for the 5-year Treasury rate in September 2026, noting an average error of 0.081 percentage points [1]. Another market-consensus model provided a forecast of 4.49% for September 2026, with its Treasury-curve page indicating 4.46% [7][8]. However, research from the Cleveland Fed suggests that professional interest-rate forecasts for 5-year yields have limited accuracy over the medium term [9].
Recent Treasury auctions show higher rates, influencing market comparisons. The most recent 5-year Treasury auction on September 23, 2026, cleared at a high yield of 5.033% [2]. This primary market observation is notably higher than earlier 2026 rates, such as 4.200% on June 24, indicating a generally higher-rate environment [2][3][10][11]. The FFC's September forecast of 4.84% aligns closely with the market's reported late-September range of 4.8%-4.9% [1][12][13]. In contrast, the older market-consensus model's forecast of 4.46%-4.49% falls materially below both the reported market level and prediction-market distributions [12][13].
Recent auction data provides a strong market anchor for predictions. Based on the September 23 auction's clearing yield of 5.033% and available economic data, the strongest retrieved market anchor for the September 30, 2026, prediction-market contract is approximately 5.03% [2][4][5][6]. A precise model-versus-market spread cannot be computed, as the evidence does not include the FFC's actual September 30 point forecast or the prediction market's current odds [2][4][5][6].
Sources (13)
- 15 Year Treasury Rate Forecastforecasts.org
- 2US: 5-Yr Note Auction - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 3Treasury Securities Auctions Datafiscaldata.treasury.gov
- 4Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS5) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 55-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 6Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growthclevelandfed.org
- 75 Year Treasury Note Yield | econforecasting.comeconforecasting.com
- 8Treasury Curve Forecast | econforecasting.comeconforecasting.com
- 9Interest Rate Forecasts in Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Periodsclevelandfed.org
- 10US: 5-Yr Note Auctioncmegroup.com
- 11US: 5-Yr Note Auctioncmegroup.com
- 125Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 13Treasury yields rip higher on renewed inflation fear - Axiosaxios.com
9. What is the typical publication lag for the Federal Reserve's DGS5 series, and when will the official yield for September 30, 2026, be released?
| Typical DGS5 Publication Lag | Approximately one business day in calendar terms [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| H.15 Release Time | 4:15 p.m. Eastern Time (Monday through Friday) [1][4][5][6] |
| Expected Release for Sep 30, 2026 | Wednesday, September 30, 2026, at approximately 4:15 p.m. Eastern [4][7][6] |
The Federal Reserve's DGS5 yield typically releases daily at 4:15 PM ET. The DGS5 series, which provides the daily 5-year Treasury constant-maturity yield, is generally released on the same business day for which the yield is calculated [1][8][4][7][6]. The H.15 Selected Interest Rates release, which includes DGS5 data, is consistently posted Monday through Friday at approximately 4:15 p.m. Eastern Time, except on federal holidays or when the Board is closed [1][4][5][6]. The FRED DGS5 page typically updates within minutes of the H.15 release [1][8][4][7][6]. However, weekends and holidays can extend this calendar lag, meaning data for those days would be released on the next business day [1][2][3].
The 5-year yield for September 30, 2026, will release that day. Given that September 30, 2026, falls on a Wednesday and is not identified as a federal holiday, the official 5-year yield for that date is expected to be released on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, at approximately 4:15 p.m. Eastern Time [4][7][6]. While prediction markets may base their settlement on the U.S. Treasury's 5-year par yield, the anticipated official Treasury value should be accessible prior to the market's 7:00 p.m. Eastern settlement cutoff on September 30 [7][5][9].
Sources (9)
- 1Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS5) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 2Selected Interest Rates (Daily) - H.15 - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov
- 3H.15 Selected Interest Rates - FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 4Federal Reserve Board - H.15 - Selected Interest Rates - Aboutfederalreserve.gov
- 5Table Data - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 6Economic Release Calendar - H.15 Selected Interest Rates | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 75Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 8Federal Reserve Board - H.15 - Selected Interest Rates (Daily) - September 08, 2026federalreserve.gov
- 9Table Data - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
10. Which Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak before September 30, 2026, and what hawkish or dovish signals could alter yield expectations?
| Clearest Scheduled Fed Policymaker | Beth M. Hammack, Cleveland Fed President (September 24, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Dominant Policy Signal | Hawkish risk from Waller and Warsh remarks, 9 of 18 participants projecting 2026 hike (September 2026) [2][3][4] |
| Major Economic Data Releases | No major BLS releases scheduled (September 24-30) [5] |
Beth Hammack is the only clearly scheduled Fed speaker before September 30, 2026. Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack is confirmed to appear on a policy panel at the Cleveland Fed/ECB conference on September 24–25, 2026 [1]. In contrast, the official Federal Reserve September 2026 calendar does not yet list newly scheduled Board speeches for September 25, 28, 29, or 30 [6][7]. Furthermore, while a Federal Reserve System conference commences on September 30 in Asheville, no specific Fed official is identified to speak on that date [8]. Similarly, a Philadelphia Fed conference on September 24, 2026, includes an Economic Outlook speech, but the speaker remains unnamed in the provided excerpt [9].
Prevailing policy signals indicate a hawkish risk for the final week of September 2026. This outlook is strongly influenced by recent statements, including Governor Waller's remarks that inflation significantly exceeds 2% and that weak disinflation could necessitate a rate hike [2]. Similarly, Chairman Warsh’s comments at Jackson Hole underscored above-target inflation and expressed a preference against explicit forward guidance [3]. Reports also show that nine out of 18 participants projected at least one rate hike in 2026, contributing to a rise in Treasury yields due to this hawkish surprise [4]. Such hawkish signals, stemming from concerns over persistent above-target inflation, resilient economic activity or labor markets, fewer anticipated rate cuts, or a tolerance for higher real rates, would likely increase the front and intermediate Treasury curve and elevate the probability of the 5-year par yield surpassing market thresholds [10][11].
Recent official remarks largely avoid direct near-term policy rate direction signals. Between September 22-23, 2026, other Federal Reserve officials' statements focused on topics less directly tied to the immediate path of policy rates. For instance, Governor Michael S. Barr's comments on September 23 concentrated on housing affordability and community development, making them a low-conviction source for near-term yield direction without additional context [12]. Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson, New York Fed President John Williams, and economist Roberto Perli all delivered remarks on September 22 that primarily addressed discount-window modernization, Treasury-market functioning, monetary-policy implementation, and ample-reserves operations [13][14][15][16]. These types of comments are more likely to impact Treasury yields through expectations regarding liquidity, term-premium, and overall market functioning rather than by providing direct indications for the federal funds path or immediate policy rates [13][16]. Furthermore, the BLS September 2026 release calendar does not show any major BLS releases scheduled for September 24–30, suggesting that Federal Reserve speeches and subsequent market repricing will likely be the primary drivers during this period [5]. The market's current uncertainty encompasses not only the policy rate but also term premium and forward guidance, with Chairman Warsh advocating for less explicit forward guidance [10][3].
Sources (16)
- 1Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2026clevelandfed.org
- 2Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlookfederalreserve.gov
- 3Keynote remarks by Chairman Warsh at the 2026 Jackson Hole...federalreserve.gov
- 4Warsh Hawkish Shock: 9 Fed Officials Signal 2026 Rate Hikefinance.yahoo.com
- 5Schedule of Selected Releases for September 2026blsmon1.bls.gov
- 6Calendar: September 2026 - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov
- 7Federal Reserve Board - Calendar: September 2026federalreserve.gov
- 8Federal Reserve System Conference on Investing in Rural America - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORKnewyorkfed.org
- 9Calendar of Events - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphiaphiladelphiafed.org
- 10September Fed Meeting: From Signals to Action | Lord Abbettlordabbett.com
- 115Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 12Speech by Governor Barr on housing - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov
- 13Speech by Vice Chair Jefferson on discount window modernization and Treasury market functioning - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov
- 14Do You Remember? - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORKnewyorkfed.org
- 15Key Takeaways from President Williams’s Speech at the 2026 U.S. Treasury Market Conferencetellerwindow.newyorkfed.org
- 16Supplying Ample Reserves - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORKnewyorkfed.org
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The dominant September catalyst was hawkish Federal Reserve repricing: a 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75%-4.00% target range, stronger-growth/stickier-inflation projections, and a 2026 median policy-rate projection near 4.1% [1][2][3]. Markets priced additional hikes, which is bullish for yields, especially the 2-5-year sector [1][2][3]. The Sep. 16, 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections reported 2026 PCE inflation of 3.7%, core PCE inflation of 3.4%, and a median federal-funds-rate projection of 4.1% [4]. Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasts updated Sep. 14 project September 2026 month-over-month inflation of 0.37% for CPI and PCE, 0.20% for core CPI, and 0.28% for core PCE; year-over-year projections are 3.43%, 3.89%, 2.39%, and 3.49%, respectively [5].
Upcoming economic data releases present key catalysts for the Sep. 30 yield outcome. The largest explicitly scheduled Sep. 30 catalyst is the BEA 8:30 a.m. ET release of the Q2 2026 GDP third estimate, industry data, corporate profits, state GDP and state personal income, plus August 2026 Personal Income and Outlays, which includes PCE data [6][7][8]. The BLS lists a Sep. 30, 2026 10:00 a.m. ET release for metropolitan-area employment and unemployment for August [9]. Bullish-yield catalysts include hotter CPI/PPI or payrolls, further oil/inflation shocks, heavy Treasury issuance/fiscal concerns, and persistent term-premium pressure [1][2][3][10]. Bearish-yield catalysts include weaker growth or labor data, softer inflation, dovish Fed repricing, risk-off demand for Treasuries, or evidence that restrictive policy is slowing activity [1][2][3][10]. Atlanta Fed GDPNow showed Q3 2026 real GDP growth at 5.0796% annualized on Sep. 17; strong growth is an upside risk to intermediate Treasury yields [11].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: September 30, 2026
- Expiration: October 02, 2026
- Closes: September 30, 2026
Sources (11)
- 1September 2026 FOMC Recap - MUFG Researchmufgresearch.com
- 2Daily: How to position in fixed income as Fed hikes rates | UBS Globalubs.com
- 3Fed builds credibility with hike; one more likely in Dec – Market Outlooksc.com
- 4Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026newyorkfed.org
- 5Inflation Nowcastingclevelandfed.org
- 6Release Schedule | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
- 7Release Schedule | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
- 8BEA 26-33 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
- 9Schedule of Selected Releases 2026bls.gov
- 10How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?polymarket.com
- 11GDPNow (GDPNOW) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXUST5AM-26AUG31-T4.58: NO (Aug 31, 2026)
- KXUST5AM-26AUG31-T4.56: NO (Aug 31, 2026)
- KXUST5AM-26AUG31-T4.54: NO (Aug 31, 2026)
- KXUST5AM-26AUG31-T4.52: NO (Aug 31, 2026)
- KXUST5AM-26AUG31-T4.50: NO (Aug 31, 2026)
