USDJPY price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
Short Answer
The USDJPY price is considered likely to be above 154.349 on September 11, 2026, at 5 PM EDT, despite current bearish sentiment driven by expectations of a hawkish Bank of Japan policy shift, with the market pricing this outcome at 93.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The implied probability of USD/JPY closing above 154.347 fell from 74% to 28% on September 10. This reversal was driven by bearish sentiment on the currency pair, which consolidated near a seven-month low. Market positioning appears to reflect expectations of a hawkish policy shift from the Bank of Japan, combined with the release of US Producer Price Index (PPI) data on September 10 and anticipation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on September 11.
The sharp drop reversed the market's prior conviction. As of September 9, odds for a close above a similar threshold were priced at approximately 77%, consistent with this market's 75% opening price. The subsequent repricing to 28% reflects a significant shift in expectations for the relative strength of the yen against the dollar. Total volume traded was low at 283 contracts.
- USD/JPY likely closes above 154.349, supported by recent spikes and oversold technicals.
- Near-term bearish sentiment remains, but US inflation data could spark a corrective bounce.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 154.367 | 28.0% | 70.5% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above 154.369 | 66.0% | 70.5% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above 154.413 | 19.0% | 37.6% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above 154.383 | 77.0% | 70.5% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above 154.347 | 65.0% | 90.5% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
Current Context
Prediction markets project a high probability of USD/JPY closing above 154.383. Kalshi prediction markets set a resolution threshold for the USD/JPY rate at 154.347 for 5:00 PM ET on September 11, 2026. As of September 9, 2026, market odds priced a close above 154.383 at approximately 77% [^].
The USD/JPY pair trades near 153.40-153.50, influenced by bearish sentiment. As of September 10, 2026, the pair consolidated near a seven-month low. This bearish bias stems from expectations of a hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy shift and upcoming US economic data, including PPI (released September 10) and CPI (expected September 11) [^][^][^][^][^]. Market participants widely anticipate the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 17-18 policy meeting. Further support for the Japanese Yen comes from ongoing concerns regarding potential foreign exchange market intervention [^][^][^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 154.349
📈 September 10, 2026: 22.0pp spike
Price increased from 71.0% to 93.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not identify a primary driver for the 22.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for USDJPY to be above 154.349 on September 10, 2026. No relevant social media activity from key figures or viral narratives were found that would explain an upward movement towards 154.349. In fact, traditional news reports on September 10, 2026, indicated a bearish bias for USD/JPY, with the pair trading in the mid-153.00s due to expectations of a hawkish Bank of Japan and awaited US inflation data, contradicting an upward surge in sentiment for the "Above 154.349" outcome [^]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, and the provided traditional news suggests a contradictory trend.
Outcome: Above 154.367
📉 September 09, 2026: 61.0pp drop
Price decreased from 89.0% to 28.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market's 61.0 percentage point drop was the significant downward movement in the USD/JPY exchange rate on September 9, 2026, fueled by expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike at its September 17-18 meeting and the unwinding of carry trades [^][^]. These factors led to a breach of the 155.00 support level, triggering mechanical selling [^][^]. No specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives, including a general reflective comment from Brad Setser, was identified as leading, coinciding with, or accelerating this particular market movement [^]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this price movement.
Outcome: Above 154.417
📈 September 08, 2026: 25.0pp spike
Price increased from 51.0% to 76.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the prediction market's 25.0 percentage point spike on September 8, 2026, was the market's reaction to the release of robust Japanese wage data [^][^][^]. The USD/JPY pair initially declined following the news of 4.7% nominal pay growth, but then experienced a significant recovery, forming a "hammer" candlestick pattern that suggested a potential short-term rebound toward the 154.417 threshold [^][^][^]. This sharp recovery and bullish technical signal likely increased confidence in the "Above 154.417" outcome for September 11. Social media activity was irrelevant as a driver for this price movement, as no related posts or viral narratives were identified.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" resolution triggers if the USDJPY price is above the specified threshold for the contract on September 11 at 5:00 PM EDT. Conversely, a "No" resolution triggers if the USDJPY price is at or below that threshold at the same date and time. The market's settlement is determined by this specific price point.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 154.349 | $0.98 | $0.80 | 93% |
| Above 154.383 | $0.98 | $0.75 | 77% |
| Above 154.385 | $0.98 | $0.79 | 72% |
| Above 154.375 | $0.98 | $0.76 | 70% |
| Above 154.369 | $0.98 | $0.81 | 66% |
| Above 154.347 | $0.69 | $0.79 | 65% |
| Above 154.411 | $0.76 | $0.80 | 65% |
| Above 154.409 | $0.60 | $0.80 | 62% |
| Above 154.381 | $0.98 | $0.81 | 60% |
| Above 154.405 | $0.76 | $0.80 | 52% |
| Above 154.373 | $0.98 | $0.79 | 51% |
| Above 154.377 | $0.98 | $0.78 | 50% |
| Above 154.399 | $0.50 | $0.80 | 50% |
| Above 154.389 | $0.99 | $0.81 | 48% |
| Above 154.387 | $0.98 | $0.77 | 46% |
| Above 154.407 | $0.48 | $0.83 | 46% |
| Above 154.427 | $0.47 | $0.86 | 46% |
| Above 154.371 | $0.98 | $0.77 | 45% |
| Above 154.397 | $0.47 | $0.83 | 45% |
| Above 154.401 | $0.47 | $0.84 | 45% |
| Above 154.403 | $0.56 | $0.81 | 44% |
| Above 154.415 | $0.72 | $0.86 | 44% |
| Above 154.425 | $0.45 | $0.86 | 44% |
| Above 154.395 | $0.53 | $0.81 | 41% |
| Above 154.379 | $0.98 | $0.78 | 40% |
| Above 154.419 | $0.39 | $0.84 | 38% |
| Above 154.391 | $0.98 | $0.79 | 36% |
| Above 154.367 | $0.98 | $0.77 | 28% |
| Above 154.435 | $0.46 | $0.86 | 25% |
| Above 154.439 | $0.68 | $0.82 | 22% |
| Above 154.393 | $0.79 | $0.79 | 21% |
| Above 154.437 | $0.47 | $0.82 | 21% |
| Above 154.421 | $0.42 | $0.80 | 20% |
| Above 154.423 | $0.46 | $0.84 | 20% |
| Above 154.413 | $0.41 | $0.83 | 19% |
| Above 154.429 | $0.47 | $0.86 | 19% |
| Above 154.431 | $0.50 | $0.81 | 19% |
| Above 154.417 | $0.39 | $0.84 | 17% |
| Above 154.433 | $0.46 | $0.84 | 15% |
| Above 154.351 | $0.98 | $0.78 | 0% |
| Above 154.353 | $0.98 | $0.77 | 0% |
| Above 154.355 | $0.98 | $0.77 | 0% |
| Above 154.357 | $0.98 | $0.75 | 0% |
| Above 154.359 | $0.98 | $0.75 | 0% |
| Above 154.361 | $0.98 | $0.77 | 0% |
| Above 154.363 | $0.98 | $0.80 | 0% |
| Above 154.365 | $0.98 | $0.78 | 0% |
Market Discussion
As of September 9, 2026, prediction markets indicated a 77% implied probability that the USDJPY exchange rate would be above 154.383 at 5:00 PM EDT on September 11, 2026 [^]. However, as of September 10, 2026, market sentiment is bearish, with the rate trading near the mid-153.00s, largely driven by caution ahead of key US inflation data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on September 11 [^][^][^][^]. The hawkish outlook for the Bank of Japan ahead of its policy meeting also underpins the Japanese Yen, influencing the pair's dynamics, while no specific expert-curated predictions for the exact rate on September 11 are publicly available [^][^][^][^][^].
5. Trust Index
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Above 154.369PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
- Metric
- —
Above 154.347Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality70Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality70Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above 154.349Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality68Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality68Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above 154.367Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality69Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality69Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above 154.371Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
- Metric
- —
Above 154.377Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
- Metric
- —
Above 154.383Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
- Metric
- —
Above 154.389Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
- Metric
- —
Above 154.391Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality70Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality70Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above 154.397Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality37Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality37Mixed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 37
Above 154.413Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality66Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality66Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 95
Above 154.425Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (2d)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- -0.12
Above 154.427Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (24h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- -0.04
Above 154.431Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality67Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality67Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above 154.435Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality51Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality51Mixed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 68
Above 154.439Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality53Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality53Mixed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 67
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.14 · computed Sep 10, 2026
6. How do the projected 2026 monetary policy paths of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan compare?
| Federal funds rate (Sept 2026) | 3.5%–3.75% [^] |
|---|---|
| FOMC median federal funds rate projection (end of 2026) | 3.8% [^] |
| Bank of Japan overnight interest rate target | 0.5% [^] |
The Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance due to persistent inflation. In 2026, the Federal Reserve is pursuing a hawkish monetary policy, primarily because inflation continues to exceed its 2% target [^]. As of September 2026, the federal funds rate is held between 3.5% and 3.75%, with potential for additional rate increases if inflation data do not show signs of cooling [^]. The Federal Open Market Committee's median projection for the federal funds rate by the end of 2026 was 3.8% as of June 17, 2026 [^].
The Bank of Japan is normalizing its monetary policy. In contrast to the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy path centers on a process of normalization, which commenced in March 2024 [^][^]. The market closely monitors for further signals of a tighter policy stance from the BoJ [^][^]. Recent announcements in 2026 indicate the Bank of Japan's overnight interest rate target is at 0.5% [^][^][^]. The BoJ continues to make adjustments to its monetary accommodation based on evolving growth and inflation data [^].
Divergent policies narrow the yield gap, potentially strengthening the Yen. This policy divergence, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance and the Bank of Japan raising rates through normalization, has led to a narrowing yield gap between Japanese Government Bonds and U.S. Treasuries [^]. This situation could potentially strengthen the Japanese Yen against the U.S. Dollar [^].
7. What historical price levels for USD/JPY have triggered currency market intervention by Japan's Ministry of Finance?
| Recent Intervention Threshold | 160-164 USD/JPY [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Intervention Date 2024 | April 29-May 1, 2024 [^][^][^] |
| Intervention Date 2026 | July 30-31, 2026 [^][^][^] |
Japan's currency intervention thresholds have significantly evolved over time. The Ministry of Finance has intervened in currency markets when the USD/JPY pair reached historically high levels, specifically around 160-164 per dollar in 2024 and 2026 [^][^][^]. This reflects a notable shift from earlier intervention thresholds, such as the 125 level observed during the 1990s and early 2000s [^][^][^].
Recent yen-buying interventions occurred on specific dates and price points. The Ministry of Finance undertook yen-buying interventions on April 29-May 1, 2024, following the USD/JPY breaking above 160 [^][^][^]. Another intervention took place on July 30-31, 2026, as the pair approached 164 [^][^][^]. These actions were notably observed on specific Thursdays and Fridays [^].
8. What are the latest Q3 2026 USD/JPY exchange rate forecasts from major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Nomura?
| Goldman Sachs USD/JPY Forecast | 140 145 range (early September 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Nomura USD/JPY Forecast | 162.00 165.50 range (late July 2026) [^] |
| Kalshi USD/JPY Prediction | 77% implied probability above 154.383 by September 11, 2026 (September 9, 2026) [^] |
Major financial institutions present contrasting USD/JPY exchange rate forecasts. As of early September 2026, Goldman Sachs projected the USD/JPY exchange rate would decline towards the 140-145 range, marking a shift from previous volatility [^]. In contrast, Nomura's forecast from late July 2026 maintained a prediction for the USD/JPY to trade within a 162.00-165.50 range [^]. Nomura's outlook highlighted the significant influence of US Treasury yields and potential market intervention risks from Japanese authorities as key factors [^].
Prediction markets indicate a high probability of a higher USD/JPY. Separately, prediction markets on Kalshi, as observed on September 9, 2026, indicated a 77% implied probability that the USD/JPY rate would be above 154.383 at 5:00 PM EDT on September 11, 2026 [^].
9. Which official sources, like the Federal Reserve's H.10 release, provide the definitive daily USD/JPY spot rate data?
| Fed H.10 data update frequency | weekly [^] |
|---|---|
| Bank of Japan FX rates frequency | daily (9:00 and 17:00 JST) [^] |
| EBS FX Benchmark fix time | New York 16:00 ET [^] |
The Federal Reserve's H.10 provides certified daily USD/JPY spot exchange rates. The Federal Reserve's H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates release offers official daily USD/JPY spot exchange rate data, which is accessible through FRED [^][^][^][^]. These rates are specifically noon buying rates in New York City, and they are certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for uses such as customs purposes and fulfilling SEC disclosure requirements [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. While the Federal Reserve discontinued its H.10 Daily Update in 2009, the H.10 data is now published on a weekly basis, updating the FRED database with the previous week's daily figures [^].
Other key sources offer distinct official USD/JPY spot rates. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) publishes daily foreign exchange rates at 9:00 and 17:00 JST, which serve as official references for the Japanese market [^]. The EBS FX Benchmark also provides an industry-recognized daily fix for major currency pairs like USD/JPY, established at New York 16:00 ET [^]. Furthermore, the U.S. Department of the Treasury provides authoritative exchange rates for U.S. government reporting, though these may differ from market-based spot rates as their primary intention is consistent government financial accounting [^].
10. What key US inflation and employment data points in H1 2026 could shift the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory?
| Federal funds rate | 3.50%–3.75% [^] |
|---|---|
| Headline PCE inflation | 3.8% in April 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
| Unemployment rate | approximately 4.3% in April 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
The Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance due to inflation and employment. In the first half of 2026, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, a trajectory significantly influenced by persistent core inflation and a resilient labor market in the United States [^][^][^][^][^].
Stubborn core inflation, driven by various shocks, remained above target. Core inflation stayed above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, primarily due to energy supply shocks stemming from the Middle East conflict [^]. Headline PCE inflation reached 3.8% in April 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Additional factors contributing to inflation during this period included tariff-related import cost passthrough, further energy price shocks from geopolitical tensions, and strong demand for specific technology goods [^][^][^][^]. Federal Open Market Committee officials identified persistent elevated inflation as the primary risk to the Fed's dual mandate, suggesting that more restrictive policies might be necessary if these trends continued [^][^][^].
A resilient labor market and new Fed leadership signaled policy evolution. The labor market demonstrated resilience and stability, with the unemployment rate at approximately 4.3% in April 2026 [^][^][^][^][^]. Under the leadership of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve established task forces, including those dedicated to the Inflation Framework and Jobs [^][^]. These actions indicate potential changes in data collection methodologies and policy approaches for the latter half of 2026 [^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
As of September 10, 2026, the USD/JPY pair trades near the 153.50 level. Traders await critical US inflation data, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) due on September 10 and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on September 11 [^][^]. Near-term market sentiment remains bearish; however, the pair is technically oversold, creating risk for a corrective bounce if forthcoming economic data underperforms or the Bank of Japan signals an indecisive policy path [^][^].
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, scheduled for release on September 11, is viewed as a major catalyst for USD/JPY. A core CPI print of 0.3% or higher would likely boost the USD, while a soft print of 0.1% or lower could accelerate the pair's downward trend toward the 152.00 level [^][^]. Simultaneously, the market anticipates a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its September 17–18 meeting, supported by hawkish rhetoric from BoJ members [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 18, 2026
- Closes: September 11, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: As of September 10, 2026, the USD/JPY pair trades near the 153.50 level.
- Trigger: Traders await critical US inflation data, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) due on September 10 and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on September 11 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Near-term market sentiment remains bearish; however, the pair is technically oversold, creating risk for a corrective bounce if forthcoming economic data underperforms or the Bank of Japan signals an indecisive policy path [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, scheduled for release on September 11, is viewed as a major catalyst for USD/JPY.
14. Related News
15. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXUSDJPYAW-26SEP04-159.7590: NO (Sep 04, 2026)
- KXUSDJPYAW-26SEP04-159.7610: NO (Sep 04, 2026)
- KXUSDJPYAW-26SEP04-159.7630: NO (Sep 04, 2026)
- KXUSDJPYAW-26SEP04-159.7650: NO (Sep 04, 2026)
- KXUSDJPYAW-26SEP04-159.7670: NO (Sep 04, 2026)
