Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Deere & Co (DE) to beat quarterly earnings, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The prediction market for Deere & Co.'s Q3 2026 earnings opened at a 50.0% probability and has trended sharply upward. The price now stands at 87.0%, having moved within a range of 50.0% to 93.0%. The bulk of this move occurred over two days. On August 6, the price surged 28.5 percentage points from 50.0% to 78.5%. The following day, August 7, it climbed another 14.0 points to a peak near 92.5%. The market has since pulled back slightly to its current level.
The catalysts for these significant price spikes are not apparent from available information. Research identifies no specific company-related news or market-wide driver corresponding to the large moves on August 6 and 7. The total traded volume in this market is zero contracts. This lack of volume indicates the price changes do not reflect active trading or a consensus formed by capital allocation. The price movement is likely a function of an automated market maker or changes in a very thin, untraded order book.
Despite the zero-volume caveat, the price chart implies a strong shift in sentiment toward a "Yes" outcome. The market established an initial floor at 50.0% and met resistance after peaking at 93.0%. The current price of 87.0% suggests a high market-implied probability that Deere's reported EPS will exceed the analyst consensus range of $4.72 to $4.85. However, the absence of any trading activity means this price level has not been tested and reflects very low conviction.
  • Yes, DE frequently surpasses analyst estimates, with whisper numbers anticipating higher results.
  • Yes, strong USDA crop forecasts for corn and soybeans suggest favorable conditions for Q3 2026.

Current Context

Deere & Company will report Q3 2026 earnings on August 20. The company is set to release its third-quarter 2026 financial results on Thursday, August 20, 2026, with an earnings call scheduled for 9:00 a.m. Central Time [1][2][3]. Analysts project Q3 2026 earnings per share (EPS) to range from $4.72 to $4.85, compared to $4.75 in the prior-year quarter [4][5]. Market sentiment, indicated by a whisper EPS of $5.15, suggests traders anticipate a positive earnings surprise [6].
Several factors influence Deere's performance and fiscal year outlook. Ongoing challenges in the agricultural cycle, alongside margin pressures from tariffs and rising input costs, continue to impact the company [7][8]. Recent developments include an FTC settlement related to right-to-repair issues and ongoing labor contract extension negotiations with the UAW [7][9]. As of its second-quarter 2026 report in May 2026, Deere & Company forecasted its total net income attributable to the company for the full fiscal year 2026 to be between $4.5 billion and $5.0 billion [10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Deere to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results | John Deere USdeere.com
  2. 2Deere Sets Q3 2026 Earnings Call for Aug. 20 | DE Stock Newsstocktitan.net
  3. 3Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference...sec.gov
  4. 4Deere & Company Earnings Preview: What to Expectbarchart.com
  5. 5Deere & Company (DE) Analyst Ratings, Estimates &...finance.yahoo.com
  6. 6DE Whisper Number & Earnings Estimates - Deere & Company | The Whisper Numberthewhispernumber.com
  7. 7Deere: The Risk Is Front-Running (Earnings Preview) (NYSE:DE) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
  8. 8Deere Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: DE Revenue, Guidance, Margins | Hudson Labshudson-labs.com
  9. 9Update on John Deere’s Contract Extension Offer to the UAWglobal-agriculture.com
  10. 10De 20260521xex99d1.htmsec.gov

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 07, 2026: 14.0pp spike

Price increased from 78.5% to 92.5%

Outcome: Yes

What happened: There is no identifiable primary driver for a 14.0 percentage point spike in the "Will Deere & Co (DE) beat quarterly earnings?" prediction market on August 7, 2026, based on the provided research. The available information explicitly states there was no significant company-specific catalyst or 14% spike in DE stock on that date, with the stock showing only modest positive movement consistent with general market trends [1][2]. Furthermore, no specific social media activity, traditional news announcements, or market structure factors were found that would lead or coincide with such a sudden prediction market movement [1-15]. Deere's Q3 2026 earnings were still pending release, scheduled for August 20, 2026 [3][4][5]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, and no other primary driver can be attributed from the given sources.

📈 August 06, 2026: 28.5pp spike

Price increased from 50.0% to 78.5%

Outcome: Yes

What happened: Based on the provided research, no specific primary driver could be identified for a 28.5 percentage point price spike in the "Will Deere & Co (DE) beat quarterly earnings?" market on August 6, 2026. Deere & Company's third-quarter 2026 earnings report and conference call were officially scheduled for August 20, 2026, not August 6, 2026 [6][4][7][5]. No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives, nor any relevant traditional news or market structure factors, were found for August 6, 2026, that would explain such a movement. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, as no pertinent activity was found in the given sources.
Sources (7)
  1. 1Agriculture Stocks: Market Performance Week of August 3–...igrownews.com
  2. 2Deere (NYSE:DE) Steps Into View Ahead OF A Closely Watched Results Updatekalkinemedia.com
  3. 3Deere & Company Earnings Preview: What to Expectbarchart.com
  4. 4Deere Sets Q3 2026 Earnings Call for Aug. 20 | DE Stock Newsstocktitan.net
  5. 5Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference...sec.gov
  6. 6Deere to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsfinance.yahoo.com
  7. 7Deere & Company (DEERE) Earnings Reports & Dates | FXEmpirefxempire.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Deere & Co (DE) reports GAAP EPS greater than $4.72 for its next quarterly earnings, otherwise it resolves to "No". The primary resolution source is the company’s official earnings documents. If GAAP EPS is not officially published, SeekingAlpha is the fallback source, and the market resolves "No" if earnings are not released within 45 calendar days of the estimated August 20, 2026 date or if SeekingAlpha's figure isn't published within 96 hours. Subsequent restatements are excluded unless obvious errors, and all figures are rounded to the nearest cent.

Market Discussion

The market currently shows a strong consensus, with an 87% probability, that Deere & Co will beat its quarterly earnings. Arguments for a "Yes" outcome are primarily based on positive stock price action. Conversely, some traders cite lower GAAP EPS estimates from external sources (e.g., $3.83 or $3.86) compared to the market's $4.72 resolution threshold, suggesting the target to beat might be higher than generally anticipated.

5. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Aug 13, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Yes—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Yes—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

1 contract

Yes95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 13, 2026

6. What are the potential financial impacts of the ongoing UAW contract negotiations and the recent FTC 'right to repair' settlement on Deere's Q3 2026 operating margins?

Q3 2026 Earnings AnnouncementAugust 20, 2026 [1][2][3]
UAW Negotiation GapApproximately $500 million [4][5][6]
Class-Action Settlement$99 million [7][8][9][10]
Deere's Q3 2026 operating margins face pressure from external factors. The company anticipates headwinds from ongoing United Auto Workers (UAW) contract negotiations and costs associated with a July 2026 Federal Trade Commission (FTC) 'right to repair' settlement [4][7][8][9][10]. Deere is scheduled to release its Q3 2026 financial results on August 20, 2026 [1][2][3].
UAW contract negotiations present a significant financial challenge for Deere. As of early August 2026, Deere and the UAW are approximately $500 million apart in their contract extension negotiations [4][5][6]. This financial disparity creates a potential pressure point for Deere's Q3 2026 operating margins, while the union's vote on the contract extension proposal remains under debate [6].
The FTC 'right to repair' settlement introduces new costs and obligations. In July 2026, Deere settled with the FTC, an agreement requiring the company to provide farmers and independent repair providers with access to necessary repair tools [7][8][9][10]. While this settlement limits legal risk, it is expected to introduce new costs and structural factors into Deere's long-term service ecosystem. Additionally, Deere agreed to a $99 million payment to resolve related private class-action litigation [7][8][9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Deere to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsdeere.com
  2. 2John Deere - John Deere - 3Q Earnings Callinvestor.deere.com
  3. 3Deere & Company (DE) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
  4. 4Update on John Deere’s Contract Extension Offer to the UAW | John Deere USdeere.com
  5. 5John Deere, UAW ‘Half a Billion Dollars’ Apart in Contract Extension Clashmanufacturing.net
  6. 6Deere, UAW still debating contract extension proposal ahead of union votekcrg.com
  7. 7Deere settles lawsuit by US FTC, states over equipment repair restrictions | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  8. 8FTC, States Secure Settlement with Deere & Company,...ftc.gov
  9. 9John Deere, FTC reach proposed deal to end right-to-repair antitrust suit | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.agri-pulse.com
  10. 10Deere’s FTC Settlement Not a ‘Decisive Loss’farm-equipment.com

7. How did the most recent quarterly performance of key competitors like CNH Industrial and AGCO compare to Deere's on agricultural equipment sales and profit margins?

Deere Production & Precision Ag Operating Margin15.7% [1][2][3]
CNH Industrial Agriculture Net Sales YoY Change1% increase [4][5][6][7]
AGCO Adjusted Operating Margin6.6% [8][9][10]
Deere's agricultural segment experienced a notable decline in Q2 2026. The company's Production & Precision Agriculture segment recorded a significant year-over-year decrease in both net sales and operating profit. Net sales dropped by 14% to $4.503 billion, while operating profit fell 39% to $706 million, resulting in an operating margin of 15.7% [1][2][3]. This represented a decrease from the 22.0% margin observed in Q2 2025 [1][2][3]. Overall, Deere & Co reported Q2 2026 net income of $1.773 billion, or $6.55 per share [1][3][11].
Competitors CNH Industrial and AGCO showed mixed financial results. CNH Industrial's Agriculture segment, in contrast to Deere, reported Q2 2026 net sales of $3.3 billion, a modest 1% increase year-over-year [4][5][6][7]. However, its adjusted EBIT margin for the segment decreased to 5.2% from 8.1% in Q2 2025, primarily attributed to an unfavorable product mix and tariff headwinds [4][5][6][7]. AGCO also experienced a slight year-over-year decrease in net sales, reaching $2.6 billion, and its adjusted operating margin was reduced to 6.6%, a drop of 170 basis points from the previous year [8][9][10].
Sources (11)
  1. 1News Releasedeere.com
  2. 2Deere Reports Second Quarter Net Income of $1.773 Billionprnewswire.com
  3. 3Deere Q2 2026 earnings: revenue up, profit slightly downstocktitan.net
  4. 4CNH Industrial N.V. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.cnh.com
  5. 5CNH Industrial (CNH) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  6. 6CNH Industrial reports Q2 sales boostequipmentworld.com
  7. 7https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/cnh-industrial-q2-earnings-call-highlights-2026-08-03/marketbeat.com
  8. 8AGCO REPORTS SECOND-QUARTER RESULTSinvestors.agcocorp.com
  9. 9AGCO REPORTS SECOND-QUARTER RESULTS - Jul 30, 2026news.agcocorp.com
  10. 10AGCO (AGCO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  11. 11Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - Insider Monkeyinsidermonkey.com

8. What is the historical accuracy of the 'whisper number' versus the consensus analyst estimate in predicting Deere's actual earnings results over the past eight quarters?

Consensus Beat Rate6 out of last 8 quarters (2 misses) [1]
Whisper Number Trend (during beats)Tracked higher than consensus estimate [1][2][3][4]
Whisper Number RoleGenerally a more aggressive benchmark [1][5][6]
Deere & Company (DE) frequently surpasses analyst estimates, with the whisper number anticipating higher results. The company has outperformed institutional sell-side consensus estimates in 6 of its last 8 reported quarters, with only 2 misses [1]. During periods when Deere ultimately exceeded these expectations, the crowd-sourced 'whisper number' consistently indicated a higher performance than the traditional analyst consensus estimate [1][2][3][4]. This pattern suggests that market participants often anticipated stronger financial outcomes than those projected by institutional analysts in these specific instances [1][2][3][4].
Specific quarterly results show Deere's pattern, but data limitations exist. The 'whisper number' is typically considered a more aggressive benchmark for evaluating earnings performance [1][5][6]. Deere's successful beats occurred in Q2 2026, Q1 2026, Q2 2025, Q4 2024, and Q3 2024. Conversely, the company missed expectations in Q4 2025, Q3 2025, and slightly in Q1 2025 [1]. While the research confirms Deere's tendency to beat consensus and highlights the whisper number tracking higher during those beats, it does not provide explicit data on how the whisper number performed relative to actual earnings during quarters when Deere missed expectations. Furthermore, a direct comparative accuracy percentage between the whisper number and consensus across all eight quarters is not available [1].
Sources (6)
  1. 1DE Whisper Number & Earnings Estimates - Deere & Company | The Whisper Numberthewhispernumber.com
  2. 2Deere (DE) Earnings Estimates & Surprise History | Macroaxismacroaxis.com
  3. 3Deere & Company (DE) Earnings Date, Reports and Estimatestradersunion.com
  4. 4DE Earnings Surprisesnextearningsdate.com
  5. 5Deere Q2 Earnings: Can The Beat Happen When 12% EPS Decline Is Already Priced In?ainvest.com
  6. 6Deere's Q1 Beat: A Guidance Reset or a Whisper Number Miss?ainvest.com

9. What is the implied earnings-day price move for DE stock based on options contracts expiring just after the August 20, 2026 report?

Market-implied daily price move6.8% to 7.6% [1][2]
Earnings release dateThursday, August 20, 2026 [3][1][2][4]
GAAP EPS consensus estimate$4.72 [4]
Deere & Company's stock has an implied earnings-day price movement. The market-implied daily price movement for Deere & Company (DE) stock around its upcoming earnings report is estimated to range between 6.8% and 7.6% [1][2]. This forecast is derived from options contracts that are set to expire on August 21, 2026 [1][2].
Deere & Company will report its Q3 2026 earnings soon. Deere & Company (DE) is scheduled to announce its fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings before the market opens on Thursday, August 20, 2026 [3][1][2][4]. A prediction market currently tracks the question of whether Deere & Co (DE) will surpass its quarterly earnings, referencing a GAAP EPS consensus estimate of $4.72 [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1DE Deere & Company Earnings History and Price Movements Analysisoptionslam.com
  2. 2DE Deere & Company Earning History and Price Movements Analysisoptionslam.com
  3. 3Deere to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsdeere.com
  4. 4Will Deere & Co (DE) beat quarterly earnings?polymarket.com

10. How have key agricultural indicators, such as USDA crop forecasts and commodity price trends for corn and soy, evolved during Q3 2026?

U.S. Corn Production16.013 billion bushels (USDA August report Q3 2026) [1][2][3][4]
U.S. Soybean Production4.519 billion bushels (USDA August report Q3 2026) [1][2][3][4]
U.S. Corn Yield180.7 bu/acre (USDA August report) [1][2][3][4]
The USDA's August report for Q3 2026 projected strong corn and record soybean production. The report estimated U.S. corn production at 16.013 billion bushels and soybean production at a record 4.519 billion bushels [1][2][3][4]. These robust forecasts were underpinned by an anticipated corn yield of 180.7 bushels per acre and a soybean yield of 52.7 bushels per acre, further bolstered by upward revisions in planted acreage [1][2][3][4].
Grain markets showed significant volatility with prices approaching peaks. Throughout Q3 2026, grain markets experienced considerable fluctuation [5][6][7]. Following a rally in July, corn and soybean prices began to show signs of topping out. This trend was largely influenced by favorable crop yield expectations and prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty [5][6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1USDA Releases August Crop Production, WASDE Reportsdtnpf.com
  2. 2USDA Raises Corn, Soybean Production With More...dtnpf.com
  3. 3Report Reaction | USDA raises corn and soybean production estimates - Pro Farmerprofarmer.com
  4. 4USDA August 2026 Crop Report: Soybean Record, Corn Strong | Ag News - News and Statistics - IndexBoxindexbox.io
  5. 5More bushels for biofuels and Beijing | Third quarter outlookfcsamerica.com
  6. 6Decide now: Grain prices approach projected 2026 peaksfarmprogress.com
  7. 7Commodities Market: Q2 Review and Q3 2026 Forecastshedgepointglobal.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Deere & Company (DE) is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2026 financial results on Thursday, August 20, 2026, with an earnings conference call at 9:00 a.m. Central Time [1][2][3][4]. Analyst consensus estimates for Q3 2026 earnings per share generally range between $4.72 and $4.85, with revenue estimates centering around $10.7 billion to $11.05 billion [3][5][6][7]. Market "whisper numbers" indicate bullish sentiment for an earnings beat, with some estimates reaching $5.15 EPS, representing a nearly 6.9% premium over the consensus [8]. Deere has consistently beaten Wall Street's EPS estimates in the first and second quarters of fiscal 2026, contributing to market anticipation for another potential beat [3][9].
Key catalysts for the upcoming report include Deere's ability to maintain its full-year net income guidance of $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion, despite agricultural market volatility [9]. Traders will evaluate whether strong performance in construction and technology divisions can offset agricultural headwinds [9]. Management has indicated that the company faces challenges, including soft equipment demand, elevated inventory, and macroeconomic volatility within the agricultural market, which they expect to persist into fiscal year 2026 [10][11]. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Deere reported net income of $1.773 billion, or $6.55 per share, a slight decrease compared to the second quarter of 2025 [10].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: August 20, 2026
Sources (11)
  1. 1Deere to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsdeere.com
  2. 2Deere & Company (DE) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
  3. 3Deere & Company Earnings Preview: What to Expectbarchart.com
  4. 4Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference...sec.gov
  5. 5DE Q3 2026 earnings estimate — revenue & EPStickerleague.com
  6. 6Deere & Company (DE) Analyst Ratings, Estimates &...finance.yahoo.com
  7. 7Deere & Company (DEERE) Earnings Reports & Dates | FXEmpirefxempire.com
  8. 8DE Whisper Number & Earnings Estimates - Deere & Company | The Whisper Numberthewhispernumber.com
  9. 9Deere's High-Stakes Q3: Can Tech and Construction Outrun Ag Headwinds? - BriefGlance.combriefglance.com
  10. 10De 20260521xex99d1.htmsec.gov
  11. 11DEERE & CO_November 2, 2025sec.gov