Short Answer

Snowflake is expected to mention Azure during its next earnings call, an outcome the market prices at 99.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's decisive move was driven by the content of Snowflake's Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings call on September 2, 2026. The contract price fell 60 percentage points to 1.0% on that day as the market resolved. This indicates the subject of the market, a specific anticipated mention, did not occur during the company's presentation or the subsequent Q&A session.
Earlier declines in the days leading up to the event lack clear catalysts. No reported development coincides with the 11.0 percentage point drop on September 1 or the 13.0 point drop on August 28. These shifts occurred ahead of the earnings release that ultimately resolved the contract.
  • Azure, AWS, Open Source, and OpenAI mentions appear likely, driven by AI offerings.
  • Snowflake's accelerated AI product revenue growth may prompt discussion of cloud partners.
  • Management will likely address Databricks' June 2026 AI product announcements.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Snowflake Intelligence 1.0% 0.3% The company's strategic focus may primarily highlight other core initiatives.
Iceberg 1.0% 0.2% Detailed discussions of specific open table formats are generally too technical for an earnings call.
Claude 1.0% 0.3% Specific mentions of alternative AI models like Claude are less common than broader AI platform discussions.
OpenAI 99.0% 97.9% Snowflake often highlights its AI strategy and potential integrations or collaborations with OpenAI models.
Competition 1.0% 0.5% Companies typically refer to the competitive landscape generally, rather than naming specific rivals.

Current Context

Snowflake exceeded Q2 fiscal 2027 expectations, driving a significant stock surge. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.62 for Q2 fiscal 2027, surpassing the $0.45 street consensus estimate [^][^][^][^][^]. Revenue reached $1.55 billion, beating the $1.48 billion consensus [^][^][^]. Following these positive results and the call on September 2, 2026, Snowflake's stock price gained over 20% in extended trading [^][^][^].
Management raised full-year guidance, citing AI-related revenue growth. Growth was driven by core data platform strength and AI-related revenue, specifically mentioning the CoCo AI coding agent, which increased by 2,000 accounts in the quarter to 9,100 [^][^][^]. This momentum aligns with accelerated enterprise AI adoption and strong demand for new offerings like Cortex Code and Snowflake Intelligence, following fiscal Q1 2027 product revenue of $1.334 billion, up 34% year-over-year [^]. Snowflake raised its full-year fiscal 2027 product revenue guidance to $6.07 billion from $5.84 billion and adjusted operating margin guidance to 14.5% from 13.5% [^][^][^]. Key analyst focus areas for future earnings include AI product attach rates, net revenue retention stability above 120%, and the company's ability to maintain growth against previous guidance [^].

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Hiring

📉 September 02, 2026: 79.0pp drop

Price decreased from 80.0% to 1.0%

What happened: The provided research offers no evidence to support a 79.0 percentage point drop in a prediction market for "Hiring" mentions during Snowflake's earnings call on September 02, 2026 [^][^]. On this date, Snowflake actually reported strong Q2 FY2027 earnings, beating estimates and raising guidance, which caused the stock to surge over 22% in after-hours trading [^][^][^]. While overall hiring activity had slowed in 2026 [^], no specific news or social media activity on September 2, 2026, is identified as causing such a significant prediction market decline. Therefore, a primary driver for the described price movement cannot be determined, and social media activity was irrelevant given the absence of supporting evidence for the event itself.

Outcome: Claude

📉 September 01, 2026: 13.0pp drop

Price decreased from 46.0% to 33.0%

What happened: The provided research does not offer information connecting "Claude" to Snowflake's Q2 FY2027 earnings call, which occurred on September 2, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Furthermore, the stated 13.0 percentage point drop on September 1, 2026, is explicitly noted as appearing in unrelated financial reporting contexts and not as a specific catalyst or metric associated with Snowflake's earnings release [^][^][^]. No social media activity or specific news leading to a price drop in the "Claude" outcome on September 1, 2026, is present in the provided sources. Therefore, a primary driver for this specific market movement cannot be identified from the available information.

Outcome: Open Source

📉 August 31, 2026: 14.0pp drop

Price decreased from 75.0% to 61.0%

What happened: The provided web research does not identify a specific primary driver for a 14.0 percentage point drop in a prediction market for "Open Source" mentions on August 31, 2026. While Snowflake's stock did experience broader volatility, including a 14-percentage-point swing, over late August and early September due to investor de-risking and macroeconomic concerns, the research explicitly states this was "rather than a single specific 14% drop on August 31" [^][^][^][^]. No social media activity or traditional news mentions of "Open Source" impacting Snowflake were found during this period [^][^][^][^][^]. Consequently, social media was irrelevant, and no specific driver for the stated prediction market movement can be confirmed from the available information.

Outcome: Databricks

📉 August 30, 2026: 24.0pp drop

Price decreased from 54.0% to 30.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 24.0 percentage point drop on August 30, 2026, was the preceding news regarding Databricks' competitive growth. On August 13, 2026, Databricks announced a $5 billion funding round at a $190 billion valuation, followed by reports indicating they had overtaken Snowflake in annualized revenue scale [^][^][^]. This news created a strong narrative of Databricks' surging market position, likely causing investors to anticipate Snowflake would be less likely to directly highlight or extensively discuss Databricks during its upcoming earnings call [^]. Social media was not identified as a primary driver, as the available information points to traditional news and market analysis leading this shift in sentiment.

Outcome: Crunchy Data

📉 August 28, 2026: 37.0pp drop

Price decreased from 51.0% to 14.0%

What happened: The web research found no evidence of a 37.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for "Crunchy Data" mentions on August 28, 2026, nor a related news event on that date [^]. Snowflake had acquired Crunchy Data in June 2025 to integrate Postgres into its AI data cloud [^]. While market commentary in August 2026 discussed Snowflake's pre-earnings volatility, valuation, and AI strategy, none of the available sources indicate any specific social media activity or traditional news related to Crunchy Data that would cause such a price movement on August 28, 2026 [^]. Therefore, a primary driver for the stated price movement cannot be identified from the provided information, and social media appears irrelevant to this unconfirmed movement.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Based on the provided page content, the exact triggers for a YES or NO resolution, specific key dates or deadlines for settlement beyond a "Max payout Dec 31, 2026," and any special settlement conditions are not detailed. The page indicates a market on whether "Claude," "Iceberg," or "Snowflake Intelligence" will be mentioned during Snowflake's next earnings call, but it does not provide the specific contract rules that would govern how these markets are resolved.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
AWS $1.00 $0.01 99%
Azure $1.00 $0.01 99%
Open Source $1.00 $0.01 99%
OpenAI $1.00 $0.01 99%
Accenture $0.01 $1.00 1%
Claude $0.01 $1.00 1%
Competition $0.01 $1.00 1%
Crunchy Data $0.01 $1.00 1%
Databricks $0.01 $1.00 1%
Europe $0.01 $1.00 1%
Hiring $0.01 $1.00 1%
Iceberg $0.01 $1.00 1%
Snowflake Intelligence $0.01 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

Snowflake announced strong Q2 FY27 results on September 2, 2026, beating Wall Street expectations and raising its full-year product revenue guidance, which led to shares surging over 20% [^][^][^][^][^]. During the call, management highlighted the role of AI products, specifically Cortex Code, in driving revenue growth, while analysts scrutinized metrics such as Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) and gross margins [^]. Prior to the announcement, prediction markets showed a high implied probability of an earnings beat amidst mixed social media sentiment and market focus on enterprise AI adoption and product revenue growth [^][^][^].

5. Trader Dashboard

A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.

Snowflake IntelligencePrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality85Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality85Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
AccentureTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality83Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality83Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
AzureTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality82Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality82Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
HiringTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality82Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality82Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
EuropeTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality82Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality82Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
CompetitionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality81Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality81Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
Open SourceTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality82Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality82Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
AWSTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality82Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality82Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
IcebergTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality82Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality82Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
ClaudeTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality83Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality83Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
Crunchy DataTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality83Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality83Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
DatabricksTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality81Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality81Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
OpenAITrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality82Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality82Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.14 · computed Sep 3, 2026

6. What recent AI product announcements from Databricks or OpenAI would likely compel a response from Snowflake management during the Q2 FY2027 earnings call?

Databricks Agentic AI product announcementsJune 2026 (Genie One, Agent Bricks, Unity AI Gateway, Omnigent) [^][^][^]
Databricks OpenAI GPT-5.5 integrationMay 2026, 46% error reduction over GPT-5.4 [^][^]
Snowflake Q2 FY2027 earnings call dateSeptember 2, 2026 [^][^][^][^]
Databricks unveiled significant AI product announcements ahead of Snowflake's Q2 FY2027 earnings call. At the Data + AI Summit in June 2026, Databricks introduced a suite of "agentic AI" products, including "Genie One," "Agent Bricks," "Unity AI Gateway," and "Omnigent" [^][^][^]. These releases followed Databricks' May 2026 integration of OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 model into its agent workflows, which reportedly led to a 46% reduction in errors compared to GPT-5.4 [^][^].
These Databricks advancements were anticipated to compel a response from Snowflake management. Snowflake's Q2 FY2027 earnings call took place on September 2, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. While prediction markets indicated a low probability (under 1%) of Snowflake explicitly using terms like "Snowflake Intelligence" as a direct branding counter-move, earnings calls are considered an appropriate venue for discussing investment strategy, business strategy, and AI initiatives [^][^][^][^].

7. Based on Snowflake's most recent fiscal 2026 filings, what percentage of its product revenue is attributable to its two largest cloud partners, AWS and Microsoft Azure?

Product Revenue Breakdown AWS/AzureNot explicitly provided [^]
Snowflake Fiscal Year 2026 EndJanuary 31, 2026 [^]
Primary Public Cloud PlatformAWS (substantial majority) [^]
Snowflake's fiscal year 2026 filings do not detail cloud partner revenue. The company's filings for fiscal year 2026, which concluded on January 31, 2026, do not provide an explicit percentage breakdown of product revenue attributable to its two largest cloud partners, AWS and Microsoft Azure [^].
Specific revenue percentages for AWS and Azure are not available. While the filings indicate that a substantial majority of Snowflake's operations run on the AWS public cloud, they do not offer a precise percentage breakdown of product revenue for either AWS or Microsoft Azure [^].

8. How does Snowflake's net revenue retention rate for fiscal year 2026 compare to that of its key competitor, Databricks?

Snowflake Net Revenue Retention Rate126% (as of July 31, 2026) [^]
Databricks Net Revenue Retention RateExceeding 140% (during 2026) [^][^][^]
NRR Comparison 2026Databricks' NRR was higher than Snowflake's NRR [^].
Snowflake's net revenue retention rate reached 126% by mid-2026. As of July 31, 2026, Snowflake reported a Net Revenue Retention (NRR) rate of 126% [^].
Databricks maintained a higher net revenue retention rate in 2026. During 2026, Databricks reported a sustained Net Revenue Retention rate exceeding 140% [^][^][^]. Consequently, Databricks' reported NRR rate for 2026 was higher than Snowflake's NRR rate as of July 31, 2026. The bound facts do not contain additional information to further compare their NRR rates for fiscal year 2026.

9. What macroeconomic trends in Europe during the first half of 2026 could influence Snowflake's forward guidance and prompt a mention of 'hiring' or regional performance?

European GDP Growth Forecast2.3% for 2026 [^]
Major EU Economies Growth ForecastBelow 1% (Germany, France) for H1 2026 [^]
Snowflake Management Update DateSeptember 2, 2026 [^]
Europe faced significant economic headwinds in the first half of 2026. The region experienced slow growth forecasts and transitioned into a countercyclical economic phase. Major European economies, including Germany and France, saw growth forecasts below 1%. These factors contributed to an average regional GDP growth of only 2.3% for the year, primarily due to high regulation and weak demand. The European economic momentum shifted to a countercyclical phase in late April 2026, marking the end of a long procyclical period [^].
Snowflake reported strong regional performance despite these European challenges. During its Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings call on September 2, 2026, Snowflake's management stated that all regions were performing well. Management confirmed that regional outlooks were already factored into their guidance and explicitly downplayed the need for region-specific hiring or performance concerns in response to analyst questions. This stance aligns with Snowflake's broader strategic shift away from headcount-intensive growth models, as AI has decoupled the relationship between hiring and growth [^].

10. What do recent analyst reports from firms like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs project for AI-related product revenue contribution in Snowflake's Q2 FY2027 results?

Q2 FY2027 Product Revenue$1.49 billion (37% year-over-year increase) [^][^]
AI Products ContributionApproximately half of Q2 revenue acceleration [^][^]
FY2027 Product Revenue Guidance$6.07 billion (36% year-over-year growth) [^][^][^][^]
Snowflake’s Q2 FY2027 product revenue accelerated, driven significantly by AI offerings. The company reported product revenue of $1.49 billion for the second quarter of fiscal year 2027, marking a 37% increase year-over-year [^][^]. CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy stated that Snowflake's AI products, encompassing CoCo, CoWork, AI Functions, and Cortex AI Gateway, contributed approximately half of this revenue acceleration [^][^].
Snowflake raised full-year FY2027 guidance, projecting increased revenue and margins. During the Q2 FY2027 earnings call, the company increased its full-year FY2027 product revenue guidance to $6.07 billion, representing 36% year-over-year growth [^][^][^][^]. Additionally, Snowflake raised its non-GAAP operating margin target to 14.5% and established a non-GAAP product gross margin outlook for FY2027 at 74%. This improved margin outlook was attributed to a higher mix of AI workloads [^][^][^][^].

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key catalysts for Snowflake include AI product attach rates, product revenue growth, and the expansion of $1 million-plus customer counts [^] . These metrics are critical for analysts monitoring shifts in consensus [^]. Snowflake's previous fiscal quarter indicated 34% year-over-year product revenue growth, bolstered by enterprise demand and new AI features [^].
On September 2, 2026, Snowflake announced Q2 fiscal 2027 product revenue of $1.49 billion, a 37% year-over-year increase [^] [^] . One number went the other way" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^]. Non-GAAP EPS reached $0.62, beating expectations [^][^]. Following this report, shares surged over 20% in after-hours trading [^][^]. The company also raised its full-year fiscal 2027 product revenue guidance to $6.07 billion from $5.84 billion and improved its full-year non-GAAP operating margin target to 14.5% from 13.5% [^][^].
Despite these strong headline results, Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) fell sequentially for the second consecutive quarter to $9.00 billion [^] [^] . One number went the other way" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^]. This RPO figure represented a shortfall against some analyst models [^][^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: December 31, 2026
  • Closes: December 31, 2026

12. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Key catalysts for Snowflake include AI product attach rates, product revenue growth, and the expansion of $1 million-plus customer counts [^] .
  • Trigger: These metrics are critical for analysts monitoring shifts in consensus [^] .
  • Trigger: Snowflake's previous fiscal quarter indicated 34% year-over-year product revenue growth, bolstered by enterprise demand and new AI features [^] .
  • Trigger: On September 2, 2026, Snowflake announced Q2 fiscal 2027 product revenue of $1.49 billion, a 37% year-over-year increase [^] [^] .

14. Related News

-79.0pp
Last updated: September 3, 2026, 12:16 UTC

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15. Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.