What will Starbucks say during their next earnings call?

Specific consensus estimates for Starbucks' Q2 2026 comparable store sales growth are unavailable. The reviewed web research does not detail final consensus analyst estimates from FactSet or Bloomberg for Starbucks' Q2 2026 comparable store sales growth in North America and China ^[1]. The provided sources primarily offer general outlooks and previews for the upcoming Q2 earnings report, emphasizing expectations for Starbucks' ongoing turnaround efforts to gain momentum ^[1].

Analysts have generally shown optimistic sentiment, with upward revisions since April 1, 2026. Major investment banks have not published significant downward adjustments for Starbucks. Instead, there is an indication of a more positive outlook, with analysts generally raising their targets ahead of the Q2 2026 earnings preview ^[3]. Notably, JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised its price target for Starbucks to $100.00 ^[2]. The market appears to be showing signs of a warming reception to the company's performance and its turnaround initiatives ^[3].

A key court decision impacted Starbucks' collective bargaining in Q2 2026. On April 20, 2026, a significant U.S. court decision vacated an unfair labor practice finding against Starbucks by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) ^[1]. This ruling requires the NLRB to reconsider its prior findings concerning Starbucks' subpoenas for internal documents ^[1]. This legal development was viewed as a win for Starbucks, influencing its broader collective bargaining disputes ^[3].

No new unionization wave occurred, but individual store efforts continued. Despite individual Starbucks stores announcing intentions to unionize in April 2026, such as a Springfield store setting a union vote ^[2] and baristas at the "original" Starbucks location declaring their intent ^[4], the research does not indicate a new wave of unionization votes occurring at more than 10 stores in a single week during Q2 2026. Nevertheless, ongoing labor tensions were present, evidenced by Starbucks Workers United proposing a new contract in March 2026 ^[5] and reports of strikes in April 2026 ^[6].

Specific quantitative data from alternative providers for Starbucks' loyalty program is unavailable. Research indicates that specific quantitative data from alternative data providers, such as Bloomberg Second Measure or Earnest Analytics, showing a statistically significant quarter-over-quarter increase in average ticket size or transaction frequency for Starbucks' loyalty program members in Q2 2026 is not available in the provided sources ^[1]. There is also no explicit correlation reported between these metrics and a major 'Promotion' by these alternative data sources within the materials ^[1]. While Earnest Analytics did note a slowdown in Starbucks card reloads in 2025, this data does not pertain to the requested Q2 2026 loyalty member performance metrics ^[2].

Starbucks implemented loyalty program changes despite absent specific performance metrics. During Q2 2026, loyalty changes were observed by April to attract value-conscious customers ^[3]. However, the provided sources do not offer detailed quantitative metrics like average ticket size or transaction frequency increases directly from alternative data providers for this period, nor do they detail a correlation with a specific major promotion ^[3]. Starbucks was anticipated to announce its Q2 Fiscal Year 2026 results via a conference call, with broader discussions on its turnaround strategy ^[4].

U.S. policies during Q2 2026 eased coffee import costs for businesses. A federal portal for tariff refunds opened on April 23, 2026 ^[1], enabling importers to recover previously paid tariffs or benefit from ongoing adjustments. This initiative supplements an existing U.S. policy, reported on March 9, 2026, which exempts most newly imported coffee from tariffs, a policy that has been in effect since November 13 of the prior year ^[2].

These measures significantly reduce Starbucks' cost of goods sold for the upcoming two quarters. The combination of the ongoing tariff exemption for most imported coffee and the activation of the new refund portal in Q2 2026 is expected to materially impact companies like Starbucks. By lowering import costs through exemptions and potential refunds, these actions directly decrease the overall cost of sourcing coffee beans, thereby reducing COGS for imported raw materials.

China's Ministry of Commerce issued no new coffee trade policies in Q2 2026. No specific new international trade policy announcements or official import/export data regarding coffee beans or tariffs were detailed from China's Ministry of Commerce during Q2 2026 that would have a direct material impact on Starbucks' COGS during this period, based on the provided research.

A significant event contributing to a market jump on or immediately before April 18, 2026, was Starbucks China's nationwide launch of a high-protein latte line. This major product introduction occurred on April 7, 2026, and is designed to capitalize on China's expanding health trend, marking a crucial strategic initiative for the company in a key international market ^[1]. This launch aligns with Starbucks China's broader focus on health-oriented, high-protein offerings, which was also reported in April 2026 ^[2].

Analyst upgrades reinforced positive market sentiment for Starbucks following this event. Such a major product launch in a vital market, coupled with evolving consumer preferences, likely generated positive market sentiment that contributed to an upward movement in stock value. This positive reaction is further supported by favorable shifts noted by investment analysts, including Jefferies upgrading Starbucks while citing a stabilizing U.S. market and positive shifts in China exposure ^[3]. The combination of a significant new product initiative directly pertaining to China's recovery and improved market conditions observed by analysts provides a strong rationale for the observed market jump.