What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call?
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Discussions about a Tesla merger are likely following concrete committee actions.
- AI infrastructure, including Cursor, benefits from robust NVIDIA Q4 growth.
- Starship and Starlink remain high-probability mentions for ongoing connectivity efforts.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| NASA | 99.0% | 98.7% | SpaceX often provides updates on its collaborations and contracts with NASA. |
| Mars | 1.0% | 0.3% | Mars colonization remains a long-term goal, but specific progress is not a quarterly earnings topic. |
| Combine / Combining | 99.0% | 99.0% | SpaceX may discuss combining various technologies or operational efforts. |
| Grok | 99.0% | 98.7% | Grok may be mentioned due to its connection with Elon Musk and xAI. |
| China / Chinese | 99.0% | 98.7% | Geopolitical considerations or market expansion efforts in China may be discussed. |
Current Context
Sources (7)
- 1SpaceX (SPCX) Q3 2026 earnings report: Live updatescnbc.com
- 2SpaceX Q3 2026 Earnings Q&Aquestiontime.ir.spacex.com
- 3Space Exploration Technologies - Live Earnings Releasesec.gov
- 4SpaceX Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Elon Musk Say?benzinga.com
- 5SpaceX says big AI growth fueled revenue jump | The Vergetheverge.com
- 6Elon Musk's SpaceX reports a profit and he hints at a possible merger with Tesla | AP Newsapnews.com
- 7What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? (Nov 4, 2026): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: T-Mobile
📉 October 21, 2026: 32.0pp drop
Price decreased from 33.0% to 1.0%
Outcome: ISS / International Space Station
📈 October 20, 2026: 81.0pp spike
Price increased from 18.0% to 99.0%
Outcome: Mars
📉 October 19, 2026: 21.0pp drop
Price decreased from 59.0% to 38.0%
📈 October 11, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 42.0% to 50.0%
Outcome: China / Chinese
📉 October 18, 2026: 13.0pp drop
Price decreased from 62.0% to 49.0%
Sources (16)
- 1T-Mobile (TMUS) Stock Analysis: AI Score, Insider Trading & Alternative Data | AltIndexaltindex.com
- 2$TMUS · T-Mobile US, Inc. — TickerTalkstickertalks.ai
- 3SpaceX spectrum license hammers shares of AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobilecnbc.com
- 4T, TMUS, VZ Stocks Plunge After-Hours As SpaceX Buys 800 MHz Spectrum For Starlink Mobilefinance.yahoo.com
- 5T-Mobile falls 13.3% and tower stocks rise on the SpaceX spectrum deal · etf.netetf.net
- 6SpaceX (SPCX) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 7SpaceX Stock Falls 10.2% as Q3 Earnings Near | Pomegra Briefspomegra.io
- 8SpaceX Q3 Earnings Preview: AI Growth, Capex and Stock Risks | Pepperstonepepperstone.com
- 9Why is Space Exploration Technologies stock slipping today? By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 10Space Exploration Technologies - Live Earnings Releasesec.gov
- 11SpaceX Q2 2026 Earnings Q&Aquestiontime.ir.spacex.com
- 12SpaceX Q3 2026 Earnings Q&Aquestiontime.ir.spacex.com
- 13$TSLA, $SPCX in Focus as X Takeover Adds Catalysts | All Things Elonallthings-elon.com
- 14SpaceX - SpaceX to Post Third Quarter 2026 Results and Host Webcast on October 20, 2026ir.spacex.com
- 15SpaceX's Starshield Dilemma: White House Control, a $8 Billion Spectrum Bet and Tuesday's Q3 Verdictad-hoc-news.de
- 16A Spectrum Land Grab Rattles the Satellite Complex | Orbit Alpha Issue 27orbitalpha.cloud
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "YES" if the words "Combine" or "Combining" are mentioned by SpaceX during their next earnings call. Conversely, it resolves to "NO" if neither of these terms is mentioned. The final settlement for this market has a maximum payout date of March 31, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artemis | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| China / Chinese | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Combine / Combining | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Cursor | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Grok | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Moon | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| NASA | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Starlink | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Starshield | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Starship | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Tesla | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| ISS / International Space Station | $1.00 | $0.01 | 98% |
| Starmind | $1.00 | $0.01 | 97% |
| Starbase | $1.00 | $0.15 | 95% |
| Trump | $0.01 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Anthropic / OpenAI | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Colossus | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Data Center | $0.36 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mars | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| NVIDIA | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| T-Mobile | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Unlock / Lock Up | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Traders are predicting the likelihood of specific terms being mentioned in SpaceX's next earnings call. There is a strong consensus that "Combine / Combining" and "NASA" are highly likely to be mentioned, both with 99% probability. Conversely, "Mars" is considered highly unlikely to be discussed, with its probability resting below 1%.
5. What actions by the Tesla or SpaceX special committees could compel Elon Musk to discuss a merger on the next earnings call?
| Condition for earnings call discussion | Approval or public announcement of a concrete transaction framework by special committees [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Potential earnings call date for discussion | November 4, 2026 (SpaceX earnings call) [2][3][5] |
| Agreement status (as of Oct 21, 2026) | Committees had not agreed on transaction terms [2][3][4][6] |
Sources (6)
- 1Musk says SpaceX-Tesla merger is 'a good idea' as...reuters.com
- 2SpaceX and Tesla boards form special committees to...techcrunch.com
- 3Space X and Tesla exploring merger, CEO Elon Musk saysaxios.com
- 4Tesla and SpaceX Formed Committees to Discuss...wsj.com
- 5Musk says Tesla and SpaceX merger is a good idea as...foxbusiness.com
- 6Elon Musk's SpaceX reports a profit and he hints at...apnews.com
6. What Q4 2026 capital expenditures and supply chain orders from partners like NVIDIA support the consensus that AI infrastructure will be a primary topic?
| NVIDIA Q4 FY2026 Data-Center Revenue | $62.3 billion (Q4 FY2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| NVIDIA Q4 FY2026 Supply Commitments | $95.2 billion (Q4 FY2026) [1] |
| Projected Cloud & Enterprise AI Investment (2026) | approximately $600 billion (calendar 2026) [2] |
Sources (7)
- 1NVIDIA Q4 FY 2026 Earnings: Durable AI Infrastructure...futurumgroup.com
- 2NVDA Q2-2026 Earnings Callalphaspread.com
- 3AI Capex 2026: The $690B Infrastructure Sprintfuturumgroup.com
- 4Nvidia Data Center Capex and Sitessavrn.com
- 5Artificial Intelligence as an Industrial System in 2026papers.ssrn.com
- 6What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? (Nov 4, 2026): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 7What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
7. How did the Q4 2026 growth metrics for SpaceX's Super Intelligence division compare to its Starlink connectivity division?
| Super Intelligence Q3 2026 Revenue | $7.560 billion (up 195% sequentially) [1] |
|---|---|
| Connectivity Q3 2026 Revenue | $5.248 billion (up 22% sequentially) [1] |
| Connectivity Operating Margin Q3 2026 | Approximately 45% [1] |
8. Are granular revenue and capex datasets available for SpaceX's 'Super Intelligence' and 'Data Center' segments for FY 2026 to model return on investment?
| SI Revenue | $7.560B (Q3 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| SI Capital Expenditure | $16.444B (Q3 2026) [1] |
| SI Operating Loss | $(3.295)B (Nine months ended September 30, 2026) [1] |
9. What progress or setbacks in the FCC approval process for the 800 MHz spectrum acquisition could make T-Mobile a key topic on the next call?
| Grain 800 MHz acquisition approval | July 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| D2D constellation authorization | October 6, 2026 [3][4] |
| EchoStar spectrum acquisition approval | May [3][4][5] |
Sources (12)
- 1ASTS Stock Eases After 3-Day Run: FCC Opens Door For...finance.yahoo.com
- 2SpaceX to buy Grain Management's nationwide 800 MHz...telecompetitor.com
- 3Federal Communications Commission DA 26-1078docs.fcc.gov
- 4SpaceX grabs “earthquake” 800 MHz deal as Starlink rocks...rcrwireless.com
- 5DA-26-471A1.pdfdocs.fcc.gov
- 6SpaceX's spectrum deal still leaves it far from rivaling...reuters.com
- 7SpaceX spectrum license hammers shares of AT&T...cnbc.com
- 8SpaceX's 800 MHz spectrum grab threatens Big 3 mobile...fierce-network.com
- 9SpaceX's 800 MHz buy points to towers, not past themwirelessestimator.com
- 10SpaceX Q3 2026 Earnings Q&Aquestiontime.ir.spacex.com
- 11What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 12What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? (Nov 4, 2026): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 31, 2027
- Closes: March 31, 2027
Sources (6)
- 1What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? (Nov 4, 2026): Odds, Chart & News | 4Conservative Predictions4conservative.com
- 2What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? (Nov 4, 2026): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 3SpaceX (SPCX) Q3 2026 earnings report: Live updatescnbc.com
- 4SpaceX Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Elon Musk Say?benzinga.com
- 5Space Exploration Technologies - Live Earnings Releasesec.gov
- 6SpaceX Historical Earnings Call Mentions vs Kalshi Pricepro.oddsassist.com