Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect 'Tariff' to be mentioned during John Deere's next earnings call, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market has experienced a powerful and rapid upward trend. The contract price started at a low of 2.0% on May 15, indicating a very low perceived probability of the event occurring. The most significant price movement was an 87.0 percentage point spike on May 16, which catapulted the price from 2.0% to 89.0%. Following this massive jump, the price has continued to climb, reaching 93.0% by May 19. The provided context does not offer a specific reason or news event that would explain the sudden and dramatic increase in price on May 16.
The total trading volume of 163 contracts across the market's history is notable, however, the sample data points show zero volume on key dates of price movement. This pattern can suggest that the price shifts may have occurred on relatively low liquidity, where a small number of trades can have an outsized impact on the price. The initial price of 2.0% acted as a floor before the breakout. The market is now trading near its peak of 93.0%, which serves as the current resistance level. Overall, the price action reflects a radical shift in market sentiment, moving from near-certainty against the event to an overwhelming expectation that the specific mention will be made during the earnings call.
  • Global oil price surges and supply constraints may influence Q2 2026 cost commentary.
  • Industry analysts expect AI and automation to be central call topics.
  • John Deere targets operational excellence for 2026 manufacturing efficiency goals.
  • Q1 2026 data does not differentiate 'Precision Upgrade' from legacy sales.
  • John Deere anticipates substantial pre-tax tariff expenses in fiscal year 2026.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Middle East 20.0% 4.6% The Middle East is not typically a significant focus in John Deere's earnings discussions.
Tariff 93.0% 93.7% Tariffs frequently impact agricultural and construction equipment manufacturers like John Deere.
Warranty 85.0% 74.7% Warranty expenses and coverage are common topics in manufacturing earnings calls.
Oil / Gas / Gasoline 79.0% 74.2% Fuel and energy costs significantly affect John Deere's operational expenses and customer demand.
Dividend 85.0% 73.1% Dividend policy is a regular topic of discussion during corporate earnings calls.

Current Context

John Deere will hold its 2Q 2026 earnings call on May 21. Deere & Company has scheduled its second quarter 2026 earnings call for May 21, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. Central time [1][2]. The company has announced that the call will cover its financial and operating performance [1][2].
Fiscal 2026 was framed as the “bottom of the cycle.” Ahead of the upcoming call, first quarter 2026 communications explicitly included management framing fiscal year 2026 as the “bottom of the cycle” [3][4][5]. These prior discussions also involved order books and various market and outlook factors, which management typically carries into subsequent quarterly calls [3][4][5].
Tariffs represent a significant cost and expected discussion point. Deere’s previous earnings materials have highlighted tariffs as a material cost item [4][5][6]. For example, coverage from Q1 cited a total tariff expense of $1.2 billion for 2026 [4][5][6]. This implies that management will likely address tariffs and strategies for margin and cost mitigation during the May 21 call, even though specific Q2 wording has not yet been published [4][5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1John Deere - John Deere - 2Q Earnings Callinvestor.deere.com
  2. 2Deere to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsdeere.com
  3. 3Deere & Company (DE) Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcriptfinance.yahoo.com
  4. 4Deere & Co (DE) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Sales Growth Amid Market Challengesfinance.yahoo.com
  5. 5Deere & Company Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summaryfinance.yahoo.com
  6. 6Deere (DE) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - AOLaol.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Middle East

📈 May 18, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 11.0% to 20.0%

What happened: Based on the provided research, a specific primary driver for the 9.0 percentage point spike on May 18, 2026, in the "Middle East" outcome cannot be identified. The available sources do not include specific social media posts, news announcements, or market structure factors occurring on or around that date to explain the movement. While analysts generally acknowledge geopolitical uncertainties that could indirectly relate to market dynamics in regions like the Middle East, this is a general observation and not a specific event tied to the price spike date [1]. Therefore, social media activity was irrelevant, as no related information was found.

Outcome: Automation

📈 May 17, 2026: 29.0pp spike

Price increased from 55.0% to 84.0%

What happened: The 29.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for "Automation" mentions during John Deere's next earnings call on May 17, 2026, lacks a clear primary driver within the provided sources. While John Deere is expected to hold its Q2 2026 earnings call on May 21, 2026 [2][3][4], and has historically discussed automation in prior calls [5][6], there is no specific social media activity, traditional news, or market announcement identified on or immediately preceding May 17, 2026. Based on the available information, social media appears to be irrelevant as a primary driver for this specific price movement.

Outcome: Tariff

📈 May 16, 2026: 87.0pp spike

Price increased from 2.0% to 89.0%

What happened: There is no evidence in the provided research to support a specific "87.0 percentage point spike" in the prediction market on May 16, 2026, or any related news catalyst concerning John Deere's mention of "Tariff" [5][7][8]. While John Deere's second quarter 2026 earnings call is scheduled for May 21, 2026, and tariff costs of $1.2 billion are a known, unchanged factor for market scrutiny, no event on May 16 is linked to this specific price movement [3][4][2][9][10][8]. Therefore, without a verified market movement or an identified catalyst on the specified date, it is not possible to determine if social media was a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or irrelevant.
Sources (10)
  1. 1briefglance.com
  2. 2Deere to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsdeere.com
  3. 3Deere to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultskenoshanews.com
  4. 4John Deere - John Deere - 2Q Earnings Callinvestor.deere.com
  5. 5Deere (DE) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  6. 6https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2025/q4/DE-4Q-Earnings-Call-Transcript.pdfs22.q4cdn.com
  7. 7Deere & Company (DE) Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcriptfinance.yahoo.com
  8. 8Deere (DE) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - The Globe and Mailglobeandmail.com
  9. 9Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) Heads Into Q2 Earnings With Mixed Signals as Tariffs and Farm Income Weigh on Outlooklondoninsider.co.uk
  10. 10Tariffs bite Deere margins as ag chugs along - Steel Market Updatesteelmarketupdate.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market resolves to "Yes" if "Dividend" (or its plural/possessive form) is spoken by any Deere & Company representative during their next earnings call, including the Q&A section; otherwise, it resolves to "No." Resolution is primarily verified by video of the earnings call from John Deere, with transcripts as a secondary source. The market opened May 15, 2026, closes early if the event occurs, or by September 30, 2026, 10:00am EDT otherwise, with payout projected 30 minutes after closing.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Tariff $0.93 $0.10 93%
Automation $0.85 $0.63 85%
Dividend $0.85 $0.34 85%
Efficiency $0.85 $0.50 85%
Manufacturing $0.85 $0.65 85%
Warranty $0.90 $0.64 85%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline $0.85 $0.69 79%
Middle East $0.83 $0.89 20%
Precision Upgrade $0.84 $0.85 15%
AI / Artificial Intelligence $0.85 $0.92 0%
Weather $0.85 $0.65 0%

Market Discussion

John Deere has announced its Q2 2026 earnings call for May 21, 2026, where the company plans to discuss its financial and operating performance [1][2][3]. However, the provided web research did not yield reliable forward-looking quotes about what John Deere will specifically say during the call, nor did it surface concrete commentary from prediction market traders or social media regarding expected statements [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8].

Sources (8)
  1. 1Deere to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsdeere.com
  2. 2Deere to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultskenoshanews.com
  3. 3John Deere's next earnings call is May 21 at 9 a.m. Centralstocktitan.net
  4. 4Deere (DE) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  5. 5Deere & Company (DE) Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcriptfinance.yahoo.com
  6. 6Pre-Earnings Analysis Ahead of Q2 2026 Results Release - IBHE.orgibhe.org
  7. 7John Deere's 2026 Forecast: Bottom or Bounce? - Investors Hangoutinvestorshangout.com
  8. 8Deere Q1 Earnings Preview: Technical Setup Suggests Taking Gainsainvest.com

5. How might recent crude oil price trends and EIA forecasts for Q2 2026 influence John Deere's commentary on 'oil and gas' costs?

John Deere Q2 2026 Earnings CallMay 21, 2026 [1][2]
Brent Crude Price (April 2026 average)$117/b [3][4][5][6][7]
Brent Crude Price Forecast (May-June 2026)$106/b [3][4][5][6][7]
Global oil prices surged due to supply constraints, impacting Q2 2026. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly tightened global oil supplies, leading to a sharp increase in Brent crude oil prices. In April 2026, Brent crude averaged $117 per barrel, with daily prices reaching $138 per barrel on April 7 [3][4][5][6][7]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that Brent crude oil prices will remain elevated at approximately $106 per barrel throughout May and June 2026, driven by continued inventory drawdowns [3][4][5][6][7]. However, prices are anticipated to decline to an average of $89 per barrel by Q4 2026 as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes [3][4][5][6][7].
John Deere will likely address oil and gas cost impacts. During its Q2 2026 earnings call, scheduled for May 21, 2026, John Deere's management is expected to comment on how these elevated energy costs are influencing the company's production and logistics expenses [1][2][8][9]. John Deere has a history of discussing 'Production costs' and strategies for mitigating external cost pressures in previous earnings calls [1][2][8][9]. This precedent suggests that the company will likely provide commentary on how the recent surge in oil and gas prices is affecting their operating margins and overall cost structure [1][2][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Deere Q2 2026 earnings call set for May 21 | DE Stock Newsstocktitan.net
  2. 2Deere Reports First Quarter Net Income of $656 Millionprnewswire.com
  3. 3https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdfeia.gov
  4. 4Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
  5. 5Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
  6. 6Short-Term Energy Outlookeia.gov
  7. 7Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
  8. 8Deere (DE) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  9. 9DEERE & (DE) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | Fintoolfintool.com

6. What commentary from industry analysts and in Deere's Q1 2026 report suggests 'AI' or 'Automation' will be key topics on the May 21 earnings call?

Combines with harvest automation99% (Q1 2026 earnings report) [1][2][3][4]
Combines with 'Ultimate' automationNearly 80% (Q1 2026 earnings report) [1][2][3][4]
Key topic for Q2 2026 earnings callAI and automation (May 21, 2026 earnings call) [5]
Artificial intelligence and automation will be central topics for Deere's May 21 earnings call. Industry analysts are closely monitoring technology adoption rates, viewing AI and automation as key discussion points [5]. Deere is increasingly seen as a "tech play" due to its focus on commercializing autonomous systems. Examples include the Autonomous 8R tractor, See & Spray technology, and software-driven fleet optimization enhanced by the Tenna acquisition [6][4][7][8].
The Q1 2026 report highlighted AI and machine learning for productivity. Deere's Q1 2026 earnings report and subsequent call emphasized a strategy of leveraging AI and machine learning to enhance both productivity and efficiency [1][2][3][4]. A significant data point from that report was that 99% of combines ordered through the Early Order Program included some level of harvest automation, with nearly 80% of these customers opting for the "Ultimate" automation package [1][2][3][4].
Analysts seek margin expansion from precision agriculture and autonomous solutions. Market analysts are closely observing whether the adoption rates of Deere's precision agriculture and autonomous solutions can generate sufficient margin expansion to counteract anticipated cyclical volume declines [5]. The performance and scaling of these advanced technologies are therefore a critical area of focus for the forthcoming Q2 2026 earnings discussion [5].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Deere Reports First Quarter Net Income of $656 Milliondeere.ca
  2. 2Deere Reports First Quarter Net Income of $656 Millionprnewswire.com
  3. 3Deere (DE) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4DEERE & (DE) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | Fintoolfintool.com
  5. 5Deere's Expectation Gap: How Much Optimism Is Already Priced In?ainvest.com
  6. 6Deere & Company Q1 2026 Earnings Callyoutube.com
  7. 7Iron, Intelligence, and the Inflection Point: A Deep Dive into Deere & Company (DE) 2026investor.wedbush.com
  8. 8Iron Meets Silicon: A Deep-Dive into the Future of Deere & Company (NYSE: DE)investor.wedbush.com

7. How do John Deere's stated goals for 'manufacturing' efficiency in fiscal 2026 compare to those of its competitor, CNH Industrial?

John Deere 2026 Strategy FocusOperational excellence through facility changes, Smart Industrial Operating Model, and Leap Ambitions (1, 2, 3) [1]
CNH Industrial 2026 Manufacturing EffortsMaintaining low production levels, managing channel inventory, and addressing tariff and transportation cost headwinds (4, 7) [1]
CNH Industrial 2030 Operational TargetOver $550 million in run-rate operational and quality cost improvements (4, 5, 6) [1]
John Deere targets operational excellence for 2026 manufacturing efficiency. John Deere's fiscal 2026 manufacturing strategy focuses on achieving operational excellence through a comprehensive approach. This strategy includes the rationalization, restructuring, and reconfiguration of its manufacturing facilities, along with the implementation of its Smart Industrial Operating Model and Leap Ambitions to enhance overall efficiency [1].
CNH Industrial's 2026 efforts support a larger 2030 improvement plan. CNH Industrial's manufacturing efficiency initiatives for 2026 are part of a broader strategic plan aimed at achieving significant operational improvements by 2030. For the immediate 2026 period, CNH Industrial is concentrating on managing key operational aspects such as maintaining low production levels, effectively managing channel inventory, and addressing cost challenges related to tariffs and transportation [2]. These efforts contribute to a larger goal of realizing over $550 million in run-rate operational and quality cost improvements by 2030 [2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1Deere Reports First Quarter Net Income of $656 Millionprnewswire.com
  2. 2CNH - CNH Industrial N.V. Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Resultsinvestors.cnh.com

8. What does John Deere's Q1 2026 revenue data by segment reveal about the performance of 'Precision Upgrade' technology versus legacy equipment sales?

Production & Precision Agriculture Net Sales Increase (Q1 2026)3% (primarily due to foreign currency translation) [1][2][3]
Production & Precision Agriculture Net Sales (Q1 2026)$3.163 billion [1][2][3]
Production & Precision Agriculture Operating Profit Decrease (Q1 2026)59% (due to higher tariffs, unfavorable sales mix, and increased warranty expenses) [1][2][3]
John Deere's Q1 2026 data does not differentiate 'Precision Upgrade' from legacy sales. The Q1 2026 revenue data by segment does not explicitly separate the performance of 'Precision Upgrade' technology and legacy equipment sales. The available information lacks a detailed breakdown of sales or revenue within the Production & Precision Agriculture segment to enable this specific distinction. During Q1 2026, the Production & Precision Agriculture segment saw a 3% increase in net sales, reaching $3.163 billion, primarily driven by foreign currency translation [1][2][3].
Despite the sales growth, operating profit for this segment significantly declined in Q1. The Production & Precision Agriculture segment's operating profit notably decreased by 59% during the same period. This significant decline was attributed to several factors, including higher tariffs, an unfavorable sales mix, and increased warranty expenses [1][2][3]. This performance contrasted with the stronger growth observed in other segments, specifically the Small Agriculture & Turf and Construction & Forestry segments, during Q1 2026 [3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Deere Reports First Quarter Net Income of $656 Millionprnewswire.com
  2. 2https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/DE-1Q26-News-Release.pdfs22.q4cdn.com
  3. 3Deere Q1 2026 profit drops as sales rise 13% | DE 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  4. 4Deere & Company (DE) Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcriptfinance.yahoo.com

9. What recent trade policy shifts or global supply chain disruptions could influence John Deere's discussion of 'tariffs' in its Q2 2026 earnings call?

Projected Tariff Expense$1.2 billion pre-tax for fiscal year 2026 [1][2][3]
Current Duties on Materials25% on steel and aluminum [1][2][3]
Threatened Future Tariff200% on Mexican-built equipment imports [4][5][6]
John Deere anticipates substantial pre-tax tariff expenses in fiscal year 2026, projecting a direct cost of $1.2 billion. This significant financial impact stems primarily from 25% duties levied on imported steel and aluminum [1][2][3]. The company has already incorporated these expected costs into its financial planning, recognizing their material effect on its operational profitability.
New tariffs threaten John Deere's heavy equipment manufacturing in Mexico following a Section 232 investigation. This probe, initiated at the request of U.S. senators, examines the offshoring of heavy equipment production to Mexico [5][6][7]. The situation is further complicated by President Trump's public statement threatening a 200% tariff specifically on Mexican-built equipment imports, a direct response to John Deere's decision to relocate some manufacturing operations to Mexico [4][5][6].
Broader market challenges exacerbate John Deere's significant tariff-driven margin pressures. In addition to the direct and potential tariff costs, the company is also navigating weak demand from farmers [8]. These agricultural customers are facing difficulties due to low commodity prices and elevated input costs, compounding the effects of widespread global supply chain disruptions anticipated throughout 2026 [9][10][8].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Tariffs bite Deere margins as ag chugs along - Steel Market Updatesteelmarketupdate.com
  2. 2Deere's Q1: A Tale of Two Markets Amid Tariff Pressuresainvest.com
  3. 3Deere Braces For $1.2 Billion Tariff Impact In Fiscal 2026, Large Tractor Inventory Hits 17-Year Low - De - Benzingabenzinga.com
  4. 4John Deere HALTS U.S. Production — Thousands of Jobs on the Line as Tariff Storm Erupts! US Policyyoutube.com
  5. 5Senators Propose a Section 232 Investigation into Heavy Equipment Manufacturing - Machinery Asia, your information portal for construction equipmntmachineryasia.org
  6. 6Baldwin, Moreno Urge Section 232 Probe of Heavy Equipment Offshoring - Washington Trade & Tariff Letterwttlonline.com
  7. 7US senators push Section 232 probe into tractor and ag equipment manufacturers shifting production to Mexico - TractorEvolution.Com - Guide to Tractor History and Modern Trendstractorevolution.com
  8. 8Farm machinery sales 2026 drop 30-40% as tariffs biteagroinformacion.com
  9. 9The 2026 supply chain challenge: Global trade disruptiontax.thomsonreuters.com
  10. 10Challenges in Agriculture Supply Chain Management in 2026agrichain.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

John Deere's upcoming second quarter 2026 earnings call, scheduled for May 21, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. Central Time, represents a key catalyst for market sentiment [1][2][3].
Market sentiment for Deere in 2026 is mixed, with analysts debating whether the company's softer 2026 outlook and margin pressures in precision agriculture represent a buying opportunity or a fundamental shift in the investment narrative [4][5][6][7].
During the Q1 2026 earnings call, management highlighted a full-year net income guidance of $4.5 billion to $5 billion and suggested that 2026 might mark the bottom of the current industry cycle [4][8][9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 30, 2026
  • Closes: September 30, 2026
Sources (9)
  1. 1John Deere - John Deere - 2Q Earnings Callinvestor.deere.com
  2. 2Deere to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsdeere.com
  3. 3Deere to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  4. 4‘2026 marks the bottom of the current cycle,’ John Deere predicts rebound is around the corneragtechnavigator.com
  5. 5The Bull Case For Deere (DE) Could Change Following Margin Pressures In Precision Agriculture - Learn Whysimplywall.st
  6. 6Deere’s (DE) Softer 2026 Outlook Could Be a Game Changer for Its Investment Narrativefinance.yahoo.com
  7. 7Deere & Co. 2026 net income forecast below estimatesyoutube.com
  8. 8Deere (DE) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  9. 9Deere & Company (DE) Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcriptfinance.yahoo.com