What will Costco say during their next earnings call?
Short Answer
Costco is expected to mention tariffs during its next earnings call, with the market pricing this outcome at 99.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market's collapse was driven by the contents of Costco's Q4 2026 earnings call on September 24. The probability dropped from 56.0% on September 19 to 1.0% the day after the call. This price action indicates the specific phrase or topic the market was tracking did not occur during the event, causing the contract to resolve toward "No".
Prior to the call, the market already showed declining confidence. The price drifted from 68.0% on September 11 to 56.0% by September 19. No specific news item in the provided context corresponds to this earlier downward trend.
- Tariffs are likely to be addressed due to recent tariff refunds.
- Expansion plans will be announced, driven by significant FY2027 capital expenditure.
- Spending commentary will be shaped by August 2026 CPI and retail sales.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend | 1.0% | 0.2% | Costco's dividend policy and potential special payouts are often topics for discussion. |
| Tariff | 99.0% | 99.4% | Costco regularly discusses tariffs given their impact on global supply chains and product costs. |
| Automation | 1.0% | 0.2% | While relevant, automation is not typically a primary discussion point during Costco's earnings calls. |
| Buyback / Buy Back | 1.0% | 0.2% | Share buyback programs are a common topic in earnings calls as capital allocation strategies. |
| Hot Dog | 1.0% | 0.2% | Costco's iconic hot dog price is a frequent subject regarding its value offerings. |
Current Context
Costco reported strong Q4 2026 earnings, bolstered by tariff refunds. On September 24, 2026, management disclosed net income of $2.998 billion, or $6.75 per diluted share [1][2]. This figure included a non-recurring $0.15 per-share benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds, yielding an adjusted EPS of $6.60, representing 12.4% year-over-year growth [1][2]. Costco received $184 million in tariff refunds during the quarter, largely reinvested into member-facing price reductions, and has already received a similar amount in Q1 fiscal 2027 [3][2]. CFO Gary Millerchip noted stable, low-single-digit grocery inflation but cited Middle East tensions and tariff policy uncertainty as potential variables for the next 6-12 months [4][2]. Membership growth is normalizing, with a target of 30 net new warehouse openings annually, supported by $7.5 billion in planned capital expenditure for fiscal 2027 [2]. U.S. and Canada renewal rates sequentially improved by 10 basis points to 92.3% [5][2].
Prediction markets anticipated a strong earnings beat, focusing on membership and labor topics. The pre-release Q4 2026 market indicated a 68%-73.5% probability of an EPS beat against consensus estimates of $6.36-$6.55, citing strong Q4 sales momentum, including approximately $93.9 billion in sales, 9.4% comparable-sales growth, and 19.5% digitally enabled growth [6][7][8][9][10][11]. While a specific market snapshot identified "Membership" and "Labor" as highly likely call topics at 100% [12], a complete odds table for all candidate phrases was not exposed [13][14]. The query date of September 25, 2026, after the earnings call, means the relevant market may have already resolved, leaving exact phrase-level predictions uncertain as post-call outcomes were not available [13][14]. One market snapshot placed the Q4 event within September 21-25, 2026, showing an EPS of $6.69 with a 59% beat indicator, though this conflicted with other localized pages [15].
Key discussion points for the call included member engagement and cost management. The most defensible forecast for call topics centered on resilient member traffic and sales, membership-fee income and renewal rates, continued e-commerce and digital strength, labor and cost pressures, and consumer spending and value [6][10]. Management was also expected to discuss margins, fuel and foreign-exchange effects, warehouse expansion, or forward guidance [6][10]. Costco's stated priority of protecting renewals across its more than 80 million paid members supports the expectation that membership retention and value were central talking points [16]. CEO Ron Vachris's March 2026 reaffirmation of the $1.50 hot dog and soda price makes pricing and value, along with inflation sensitivity, plausible topics [17].
Sources (17)
- 1Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
- 2[Costco Wholesale Q4 2026 Earnings Call] Net Income Jumps 12.3% to $2.61B as Tariff Refunds Fund Price Cuts and Gas Volumes Hit Recordfinance.biggo.com
- 3Costco beats quarterly sales estimates on resilient demand for essentials | Reutersreuters.com
- 4COST (Trans): comps steady at 6.7%, membership growth slowed | Longbridgelongbridge.com
- 5Costco (COST) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 6Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?polymarket.com
- 7Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?polymarket.com
- 8Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?polymarket.com
- 9Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?polymarket.com
- 10Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?polymarket.com
- 11Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?polymarket.com
- 12What will Costco say during their next earnings call? Pre... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 13What will Costco say during their next earnings call?polymarket.com
- 14What will Costco say during their next earnings call?polymarket.com
- 15Earnings Predictions Calendarpolymarket.com
- 16Costco quietly hands members a new perk as household costs bite:: GrabienNewsnews.grabien.com
- 17Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?polymarket.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Revenue
📉 September 24, 2026: 84.0pp drop
Price decreased from 85.0% to 1.0%
What happened: The premise of an 84.0 percentage point drop for "Revenue" in the Costco prediction market on September 24, 2026, is not supported by the provided research, which indicates no such drastic movement [1]. Instead, Costco's Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call on that date reported revenue of approximately $95.7 billion, surpassing expectations of roughly $94.9 billion, with net sales growing 11.2% year-over-year [2]. Given these strong revenue results, "Revenue" was a central discussion point during the earnings call, making a drop in the probability of its mention highly unlikely; the actual stock movement for Costco shares was a muted 0.91% lower, not an 84% collapse [2]. Therefore, social media activity, while including discussions such as the confirmed return of the food court churro [3], was irrelevant to the described non-existent market movement.
Outcome: Labor
📈 September 23, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 55.0% to 64.0%
What happened: The supplied research does not corroborate a 9.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for "Labor" mentions during Costco's earnings call on September 23, 2026, nor does it identify a primary driver for such a movement [4]. No specific social media activity from key figures or traditional news announcements related to Costco and "Labor" causing a spike on that date were found [4]. Therefore, social media was not confirmed to be a primary driver or accelerant for this ungrounded event.
Outcome: Holiday
📈 September 22, 2026: 11.0pp spike
Price increased from 62.0% to 73.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not identify a specific social media post, traditional news announcement, or market structure factor that directly caused the 11.0 percentage point spike in the "Holiday" outcome for Costco's prediction market on September 22, 2026 [4]. While pre-earnings commentary leading up to Costco's Q4 2026 earnings call on September 24, 2026, did highlight holiday demand and the holiday-season setup as anticipated discussion points, no verified catalyst for this particular price movement is exposed [5][6][7][4]. Given the lack of specific evidence, social media activity cannot be confirmed as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or even significant noise for this spike.
Outcome: Buyback / Buy Back
📉 September 21, 2026: 13.0pp drop
Price decreased from 48.0% to 35.0%
What happened: The provided research does not substantiate the reported 13.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market outcome "Buyback / Buy Back" on September 21, 2026 [8]. No retrieved source documents this specific prediction market movement, nor a corresponding news or social media catalyst [8]. While pre-earnings speculation existed around potential buybacks, management commentary indicated that growth investments and regular dividends were prioritized, with buybacks primarily anti-dilutive and no immediate major buyback promised [9]. Therefore, without evidence of the market movement itself, the role of social media or other factors as a primary driver cannot be determined.
Outcome: Churro
📉 September 20, 2026: 16.0pp drop
Price decreased from 76.0% to 60.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 16.0 percentage point drop on September 20, 2026, was likely a shift in market sentiment, influenced by news and analysis, suggesting the churro was not a confirmed or material earnings call topic. An article published around this date stated, "Costco Has Not Confirmed a Churro Return; Q4 Traffic Is the Investor Test" [10]. This news underscored that investor focus was on significant financial metrics, such as Q4 traffic and membership growth, rather than food court items [10][11][12][13]. This information appeared to coincide with the price movement, leading market participants to lower expectations for a prominent "Churro" mention. Social media was not identified as a primary driver, with the narrative stemming from traditional news analysis.
Sources (13)
- 1Costco Sales Rose 11.2% to $93.9 Billion – and $0.15 of the Beat Was a Tariff Refundfinancefeeds.com
- 2Costco beats quarterly sales estimates on resilient demand for essentials | Reutersreuters.com
- 3Costco Confirms Its Food Court Churro Is Coming Back — COST Stock Flat Despite Q4 Beastocktwits.com
- 4What will Costco say during their next earnings call? Pre... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 5Costco Earnings: What Shoppers—and Options—Are Telling Us | SpotGamma™spotgamma.com
- 6Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?polymarket.com
- 7Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?polymarket.com
- 8Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?polymarket.com
- 9Costco Stock Nears Bear Market: Can Earnings Turn It Around?webull.com.my
- 10Costco Has Not Confirmed a Churro Return; Q4 Traffic Is the Investor Testts2.tech
- 11Costco Stock at $892: Here's What History Says Comes Next | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 12Costco Stock Holds $888 as Q4 Earnings Put Membership Growth and Margins in Focustradingkey.com
- 13Costco Stock Slides Before Q4 Earnings as… | Pomegra Briefspomegra.io
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market concerns whether Costco will mention "Tariff" during their next earnings call. The provided content does not detail the specific conditions that trigger a "YES" or "NO" resolution for the "Tariff" market. The maximum payout date for this market is December 31, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Churro | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Expansion | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| GLP-1 / GLP 1 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Holiday | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Instacart | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Iran / Middle East | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Kirkland | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Labor | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Protein | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Spending | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Tariff | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Automation | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Buyback / Buy Back | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Cannibalization | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Dividend | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Gold Bar | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Google / YouTube | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Hot Dog | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Retail Media | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Revenue | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Valuation | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Although Costco’s fiscal Q4 2026 earnings call occurred on September 24, 2026, pre-call prediction market sentiment widely favored an earnings beat, with probabilities ranging from 57.5% to 73.5% against an approximate $6.53 diluted EPS consensus [1][2][3][4][5][6]. The most consistently predicted terms to be mentioned were "Kirkland/Kirkland Signature" (92–99% probability) and "tariff" (about 96%), alongside other likely topics such as membership growth, digital/e-commerce strength, and potential capital return like a dividend or buyback [3][7][8][9][10]. Investor expectations for the call were high, focusing on membership-fee quality and gross margin, given the stock's valuation [3][10].
Sources (10)
- 1Costco Wholesale Corporation - Q4 2026 Earnings Callinvestor.costco.com
- 2Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter andglobenewswire.com
- 3Costco Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will CEO Ron Vachris Say?finance.yahoo.com
- 4Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?polymarket.com
- 5Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?polymarket.com
- 6Превзойдет ли Costco (COST) квартальную прибыль?polymarket.com
- 7Costco Earnings: What Will Ron Vachris Say? - Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST) - Benzingabenzinga.com
- 8What will Costco say during their next earnings call? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 9What will Costco say during their next earnings call? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 10Costco Q4 Earnings Preview: Membership and Capital-Return Test After a Near-Bear Pullback | Bitget Newsbitget.com
5. Trust Index
The market subject can determine its own outcome.
Integrity risk· Outcome control
Trust score capped by Market integrity (20).
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score39High Risk
Trade quality20% of score78Good
Weighted blend47overridden
Safety capMarket integrity40High Risk
Market integrity 20 is below the safety floor of 30, so the score can't exceed 40.
Trust profile
Integrity6 screens run · 1 doesn't apply · 3 awaiting data
6. How might the August 2026 Consumer Price Index and retail sales reports shape Costco's commentary on 'Spending' during its September 2026 earnings call?
| August Headline CPI (MoM/YoY) | 0.4% / 3.4% [1][2] |
|---|---|
| August Core CPI (MoM/YoY) | 0.3% / 2.4% [1][2] |
| August Retail Sales | $773.9 billion, up 1.2% from July [3][4][5] |
The August 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales reports present a dual economic landscape of strong nominal demand amidst persistent inflationary pressures [1][4][6]. This combination moderately increases the likelihood that Costco will address "Spending" during its September 2026 earnings call [1][4][6]. August CPI data showed headline inflation rising 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year, with core CPI increasing 0.3% month over month and 2.4% year over year, signaling ongoing cost pressures for households [1][2]. Simultaneously, August retail sales were robust at approximately $773.9 billion, up 1.2% from July, indicating resilient nominal consumer demand, though some of this growth reflects price increases rather than real volume [3][4][5].
Costco will likely describe consumers as selective and value-driven in their spending habits. Given these economic conditions, the company's commentary on "Spending" is expected to reflect consumers who remain willing to spend but are increasingly discerning and value-conscious [1][4][7]. Costco is anticipated to frame its strong performance in warehouse traffic, average basket size, essential consumables, and private-label value proposition as benefiting from consumers actively seeking better value [1][4][7]. Management may also acknowledge potential pressure on discretionary categories if higher prices and elevated core inflation persist [1][4][7]. A prediction market further supports a plausible mention of "Spending," with an approximate 74.5% "Yes" market price [6][8][9].
Sources (9)
- 1US consumer prices accelerate in August, push Fed closer...reuters.com
- 2Consumer Price Index - August 2026bls.gov
- 3US Census Bureaux.com
- 4Monthly Retail Trade - Sales Reportcensus.gov
- 5Aug 2026, Release Tables: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail...fred.stlouisfed.org
- 6Will Costco say "Spending" during earnings call? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 7ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD...census.gov
- 8Will Costco say "Revenue" during earnings call? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 9Will Costco say "Quarter" 15+ times during earnings call? | Paritypredictparity.com
7. Based on transcripts from FY2025 and FY2026, what is the historical frequency and context of Costco's discussions around 'Membership' and 'Labor'?
| Paid Members | 82.9 million (FY2026 Q3) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Executive Memberships | 41.2 million (FY2026 Q3) [1][2] |
| US/Canada Renewal Rate | 92.2% (FY2026 Q3) [1][2] |
Membership is a central and recurring topic in Costco's earnings calls. Discussions throughout FY2025 and FY2026 consistently focused on membership growth, income, and renewal rates [3][4][5][1][2]. For instance, FY2025 Q1 discussions noted a September 2024 fee increase and pressure on renewal rates due to faster digital sign-ups, alongside 77.4 million paid household members [3][6][4]. By FY2026 Q3, Costco reported $1.37 billion in membership-fee income, with 82.9 million paid members, including 41.2 million Executive memberships [1][2]. During this same period, renewal rates reached 92.2% in the U.S./Canada and 89.7% worldwide [1][2].
Labor discussions typically focus on operating costs and member value. Unlike membership, labor is generally not presented as a standalone strategic theme [3][6]. For example, in FY2025 Q1, investments in employee wages were linked to enhancing the membership experience and maintaining value in an inflationary environment [3][6]. Analysis of prediction market data for September 24, 2026, indicated a lower prominence for "Labor" compared to other topics, suggesting it is plausible mainly if questions arise regarding wages, staffing, SG&A, or inflation [7][8][9]. This analysis was based on pre-resolution historical frequency, as a confirmed post-call transcript for September 24, 2026, was not available [10][11].
Sources (11)
- 1Costco (COST) Q3 2026 Earnings Transcriptfool.com
- 2Earnings call transcript: Costco Q3 2026 sees strong...investing.com
- 3Costco Wholesale (COST) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
- 4Earnings call transcript: Costco Q4 2025 beats estimates...investing.com
- 5COST Transcript - FY2026Q1 AI Summaryintellectia.ai
- 6Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Q2 2025 Earnings...seekingalpha.com
- 7Will Costco say "Labor" during earnings call? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 8What will Costco say during their next earnings call? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 9What will Costco say during their next earnings call? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 10Events & Presentations - Costco Investor Relationsinvestor.costco.com
- 11Costco Wholesale Corporation - Earnings Call Transcriptsroic.ai
8. How do Costco's announced FY2027 'Expansion' plans and capital expenditures compare to those of Walmart (Sam's Club) and Target?
| Costco FY2027 Capital Expenditures | Approximately $7.5 billion [1] |
|---|---|
| Target FY2027 Capital Expenditures | Approximately $5 billion [2] |
| Walmart Implied FY2027 Total Company Capital Expenditures | Approximately $28.3 billion [3] |
Costco plans significant FY2027 capital expenditure for warehouse expansion. The company has announced approximately $7.5 billion in capital expenditures for FY2027, representing a 17% increase over FY2026. This spending is primarily directed towards warehouse expansion and includes two FY2026 openings that were deferred to FY2027 [1]. Costco's planned expenditure surpasses Target's indicated full-year FY2027 CapEx of approximately $5 billion [1], demonstrating a more intensive focus on expansion relative to its operational scale compared to its peers [1].
Walmart's broader CapEx includes Sam's Club, which prioritizes omnichannel growth. Walmart's consolidated capital expenditure guidance for FY2027 implies roughly $28.3 billion, calculated based on approximately 4.0% of sales. This increased spending is attributed to omnichannel growth across its broader business and is not specifically allocated for Sam's Club [3]. Sam's Club U.S. separately reported capital expenditures of $274 million for the three months ended April 30, 2026, which is an increase from $144 million in the prior year. These investments focus on membership, e-commerce, delivery, automation, and omnichannel capabilities rather than specific club-opening targets [3].
9. What is the consensus among Wall Street analyst reports regarding key themes for Costco's Q4 2026 earnings call, specifically concerning 'Revenue' growth and margins?
| Q4 2026 Revenue Consensus | $94.9 billion [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Q4 2026 EPS Consensus | $6.53-$6.54 [1][2][3] |
| Actual Q4 2026 Revenue | $95.7 billion-$95.72 billion [1][4][5][6][7][3] |
Wall Street analysts predicted strong revenue growth but cautious margin performance for Costco. Before Costco's Q4 2026 earnings call, analysts largely anticipated robust yet moderating revenue growth, with a consensus target around $94.9 billion, representing a 10.1% year-over-year increase [1][2][3]. A cautious outlook also prevailed regarding margins, with an expected earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $6.53 to $6.54. Analysts highlighted potential gross-margin risks stemming from various external pressures, suggesting that EPS growth could potentially trail revenue growth [1][2][3].
Costco surpassed expectations in Q4 2026 revenue and earnings per share. The company ultimately reported Q4 2026 revenue of approximately $95.7 billion to $95.72 billion and an EPS of $6.75, with both figures exceeding the pre-call consensus [1][4][5][6][7][3]. This outcome indicated resilient demand and strong sales growth, alongside disciplined or improving underlying profitability. While margin pressure was reported, it was primarily attributed to gas inflation, and the quarter benefited positively from a tariff-related refund [4][5][6][7][3].
Sources (7)
- 1Costco: The Valuation Re-Rating Is Just Getting Started (...seekingalpha.com
- 2Costco Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will CEO...finance.yahoo.com
- 3Costco Q4 2026 earnings beat expectations on tariff refundqz.com
- 4Earnings call transcript: Costco beats Q4 2026 forecasts...investing.com
- 5Costco Wholesale Corp. Q4 2026 Earnings: Recap of $COST...thestreet.com
- 6Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Q4 2026 Earnings...seekingalpha.com
- 7Costco tops Q4 estimates: Revenue hits $95.7B on...finance.yahoo.com
10. What specific U.S. trade policy developments in H2 2026 could compel Costco management to address 'Tariffs' in their forward guidance?
| IEEPA Tariff Refund | $184 million (Costco Q4 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| EPS Impact of Refund | $0.15 per diluted share (Costco Q4 2026) [1][2] |
| Estimated Average US Tariff Rate | 12.4% (Allianz estimate for U.S. trade action) [4] |
Costco's recent tariff refunds will prompt discussion in forward guidance. The company is highly likely to address tariffs in its Q4 earnings call, driven by a significant $184 million tariff-refund benefit received during the quarter, with additional refunds expected [1][2][3]. This refund contributed approximately $0.15 per diluted share, elevating the company's EPS growth to 15.0% from what would have been 12.4% without it [1][2]. Management's guidance is expected to clarify whether these refunds are characterized as nonrecurring, and to discuss potential future implications for landed costs, pricing strategies, sourcing, and profit margins [3].
New U.S. trade policies in H2 2026 will compel tariff discussions. The USTR's final action on July 23 imposed supplemental tariffs of 10% or 12.5% across 60 Section 301 investigations, following the expiration of a temporary 10% tariff [5]. Allianz estimated this could raise the average U.S. tariff rate to 12.4%, with a further 10%-12.5% possible from a second overcapacity investigation [4]. Effective December 4, a scheduled H2-2026 tariff change will introduce new Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) treatment for polysilicon and specific derivatives [6]. This change could affect Costco's private-label and general-merchandise supply chains through combined ad valorem and specific duties, along with new documentation requirements [6]. Additional trade actions in H2 2026 include the administration's July 20 Section 338 measures, which levied 50% additional duties on certain Canadian products [7]. Subsequent orders on September 8 made specified Canadian motor-vehicle and dairy products subject to import exclusion starting September 29, with a September 15 scope modification altering which Canadian products faced the 50% duty [8][9]. Lastly, the suspension of a separate maritime/shipping trade action through November 9, 2026, poses a potential freight-cost risk for import-heavy retailers like Costco, as duties and fees from the Section 301 shipbuilding investigation could resume on November 10 if not extended [10].
Sources (10)
- 1Costco Q4 sales rise 11.2% to $93.9B | COST 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 2Costco clinches $184M in tariff refunds, with more expectedspokesman.com
- 3Will Costco say "Tariff" during earnings call? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 4Trade war 3.0: A new, lasting tariff wallallianz.com
- 5Notice of Actions in Section 301 Investigations of Acts, Policies, and Practices ofustr.gov
- 6Annex II A. Effective with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse forwhitehouse.gov
- 7Excluding Certain Canadian Products from Importation into the United States in Response to Continued Discrimination Against the Commerce of the United States with Respect to Motor Vehicles – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 8Excluding Certain Canadian Products from Importation into the United States in Response to Continued Discrimination Against the Commerce of the United States with Respect to Dairy – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 9Modifying the Scope of Products of Canada Subject to the Additional Duties Imposed to Offset Canadian Discrimination Against the United States with Respect to Motor Vehicles – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 1050947ustr.gov
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Costco released its fiscal Q4/FY2026 results on Thursday, September 24, 2026, at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET [1][2]. The company reported Q4 FY2026 revenue of approximately $95.7 billion and EPS of $6.75, exceeding the pre-call consensus of roughly $94.85–$95.0 billion revenue and $6.53–$6.55 EPS [1][3]. Immediately before the call, prediction markets implied a 69%–73% probability of an EPS beat [4][5].
Principal mention markets identified Kirkland Signature (99%), tariffs (96%), protein (83%), retail media (80%), dividend (59%), and GLP-1 (35%) as likely discussion topics [4][5]. Bullish catalysts anticipated included continued sales and traffic strength, Kirkland Signature growth, protein demand, digital/e-commerce momentum, high renewal rates, and potential excess-cash returns; paid memberships had increased 4.1% to 82.9 million, with U.S./Canada renewal at 92.2% [4][6]. Bearish or risk topics comprised gross-margin compression, tariffs and timing of refunds, gasoline profitability, inflation/supply-chain costs, and regulatory scrutiny; gross margin had fallen 21 basis points to 11.04% [4][6][7].
Investors also focused on the forward-looking timeline for tariff-refund processing over the subsequent two to three months, and FY2027 warehouse openings potentially returning to a 30-plus annual pace after 26 net openings in FY2026 [4][6]. Near-term post-call reaction to membership and margin commentary was closely watched [4][6]. The September 24, 2026, Q4 earnings event is now retrospective [5][8].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: December 31, 2026
- Closes: December 31, 2026
Sources (8)
- 1Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter andglobenewswire.com
- 2Q4 2026 Earnings Call - Costco Wholesale Corporationinvestor.costco.com
- 3Earnings call transcript: Costco beats Q4 2026 forecasts...investing.com
- 4Costco Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will CEO Ron Vachris Say?finance.yahoo.com
- 5Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?polymarket.com
- 6Live: Will Costco Crush Q4 Earnings Tonight After the Market Closes? - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
- 7Costco Q4 preview: Healthy earnings, margin risks, and anticipations of a ‘Christmas present’ (COST:NASDAQ) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
- 8What will Costco say during their next earnings call?polymarket.com
