What will Zoom say during their next earnings call?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Enterprise is most likely to be mentioned, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market saw a dramatic, single-day repricing event. The contract opened at a 4.0% probability and traded near that level before spiking 77.0 percentage points to 81.0% on August 19, 2026. The price has since stabilized at this new, higher level. The context provided does not offer a specific news-based catalyst for this sharp upward movement. The move occurred in the run-up to Zoom's Q2 FY27 earnings announcement scheduled for August 25, 2026.
The price action established a new trading range, with a floor around 4.0% and a new plateau at 81.0%. This 81.0% level is now functioning as both resistance and support, with the price holding firm since the initial jump. While total volume is 1,617 contracts, the sample data points show zero volume accompanying the price spike and the subsequent day. This pattern can suggest that the repricing was driven by a small number of trades or occurred in a thin market, with conviction from the broader market remaining untested.
The chart indicates a decisive shift in market sentiment. The probability of a "YES" resolution moved from highly unlikely to highly probable in a single session. The market is now pricing in an 81.0% chance of the specified outcome related to the earnings call. The stability at this elevated level, despite low subsequent volume, suggests that the participants who drove the price higher have not been challenged by sellers.
- Enterprise mentions appear likely, given strong competitive growth from rivals.
- Contact Center mentions are probable, driven by rapid growth and market leadership.
- Discussions of churn are expected, aligning with its frequent FY2026 mention.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI Companion | 81.0% | 81.8% | AI Companion is a central feature of Zoom's current artificial intelligence product strategy. |
| Enterprise | 96.0% | 95.1% | Zoom regularly highlights its continued growth and strategic focus on enterprise customers. |
| Zoom Phone | 90.0% | 86.8% | Zoom Phone remains a core product and a significant contributor to the company's revenue. |
| Workvivo | 82.0% | 70.1% | Workvivo is a recent acquisition and a key component of Zoom's employee engagement strategy. |
| Contact Center | 93.0% | 93.1% | The company has been actively expanding and promoting its Contact Center solutions as a key offering. |
Current Context
Zoom is set to release second quarter fiscal year 2027 results. Zoom Video Communications will announce its Q2 FY27 financial results on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, after market close, followed by an earnings webinar at 5:00 PM ET [1][2][3][4]. The company previously guided for Q2 FY27 revenue between $1.265 billion and $1.270 billion and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.45 to $1.47 [5][6]. Analyst consensus estimates project Q2 FY27 EPS at $1.48 and revenue between $1.267 billion and $1.3 billion [3][7][8]. The market-implied consensus for non-GAAP EPS for the quarter also stands at $1.48 [9][10][11].
AI monetization and full-year guidance revision will dominate the call. Key topics include Zoom's AI monetization strategy, focusing on the adoption of 'ZoomMate' and 'AI Companion' [12][13][6][14]. Performance in newer growth segments, specifically Contact Center, also bears scrutiny; IDC MarketScape named Contact Center a leader in 2026 [12][13][6][14]. Previous fiscal year 2027 calls emphasized enterprise momentum, AI-driven product adoption, and efforts toward sustained margin expansion [15]. Investors will monitor whether Zoom maintains or revises its full-year FY27 guidance, currently $5.08 billion–$5.09 billion revenue, given slowing topline growth relative to competitors such as Cisco Webex and RingCentral [6].
Sources (15)
- 1Investor Relations | Zoom Communications, Inc.investors.zoom.us
- 2Zoom Communications (ZM) Stock News & Updatesstocktitan.net
- 3Zoom Communications (ZM) Projected to Announce...marketbeat.com
- 4Zoom Communications (ZM) to Post Earnings on Tuesday - American Market Newsamericanbankingnews.com
- 5Zoom Communications Reports Financial Results for the...finance.yahoo.com
- 6Zoom Q2 FY27 Earnings Preview - UC Todayuctoday.com
- 7Zoom Communications Earnings & Forecastsbenzinga.com
- 8ZM Q2 2027 earnings estimate — revenue & EPStickerleague.com
- 9Will Zoom Communications (ZM) beat quarterly earnings?polymarket.com
- 10https://polymarket.com/id/event/zm-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-08-25-2026-1pt48polymarket.com
- 11Will Zoom Communications (ZM) beat quarterly earnings?polymarket.com
- 12Zoom Named a Leader in the IDC MarketScape: Worldwide Agentic Contact Center as a Service Platforms 2026 | Zoomzoom.com
- 13How Zoom’s New ZoomMate AI Launch Amid Slower Expansion Will Impact Zoom Communications (ZM) Investors - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
- 14Zoom Spaces Brings AI Intelligence to Hybrid Meeting Rooms | VoIP Reviewvoip.review
- 15Will Zoom Communications (ZM) beat quarterly earnings? Pr... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 19, 2026: 90.0pp spike
Price increased from 3.0% to 93.0%
Outcome: Churn
What happened: There is no credible information or evidence to support the claim of a 90.0 percentage point "churn" spike in a Zoom prediction market on August 19, 2026 [1]. Zoom Video Communications is scheduled to host its second quarter fiscal year 2027 earnings webinar on August 25, 2026, with market sentiment focusing on slower growth guidance rather than a sudden churn event [2][3][4][5]. Without evidence that such a price movement occurred, it is not possible to identify a primary driver, including social media activity. Therefore, social media cannot be assessed as a driver for an unverified market event.
Sources (5)
- 1Will Zoom Q1 online average monthly churn rate be at leas... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 2Investor Relations | Zoom Communications, Inc.investors.zoom.us
- 3Zoom Video (ZM) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings Call...public.com
- 4Zoom Communications (ZM) Stock News & Updatesstocktitan.net
- 5Zoom Q2 FY27 Earnings Preview - UC Todayuctoday.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided content, the specific rules for what triggers a YES or NO resolution for the "Scribe" market are not detailed. The market begins on Tuesday, August 25, 5:00 PM EDT, with a maximum payout date of December 31, 2026. No other special settlement conditions are mentioned.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enterprise | $0.97 | $0.05 | 96% |
| Churn | $0.95 | $0.12 | 93% |
| Contact Center | $0.95 | $0.07 | 93% |
| Zoom Phone | $0.93 | $0.12 | 90% |
| System of Action | $0.90 | $0.18 | 85% |
| Workvivo | $0.88 | $0.20 | 82% |
| AI Companion | $0.92 | $0.09 | 81% |
| Agentic | $0.84 | $0.24 | 80% |
| My Note | $0.83 | $0.26 | 80% |
| Scribe | $0.35 | $0.74 | 34% |
| Zoom Doc | $0.26 | $0.82 | 26% |
| Federal | $0.19 | $0.89 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Zoom (ZM) is expected to release its Q2 FY2027 financial results on Tuesday, August 25, 2026 [1][2][3]. Market sentiment largely focuses on the company's ability to demonstrate successful AI monetization through tools like ZoomMate and AI Companion, aiming to offset slower customer expansion and intense competition [4][5][6]. While some investors view Zoom as a 'value' play with a hidden valuation floor from its Anthropic stake, others express concern about a 'growth awareness problem' and the potential for a full-year guidance cut, despite prediction market traders showing a bullish bias towards an earnings beat on EPS estimates ranging from $1.38 to $1.48 per share [7][8][9][6].
Sources (9)
- 1Investor Relations | Zoom Communications, Inc.investors.zoom.us
- 2Zoom to Release Financial Results for the Second Quarter ofglobenewswire.com
- 3Zoom Sets Aug. 25 Fiscal Q2 Earnings Date | ZM Stock Newsstocktitan.net
- 4Zoom Q2 FY27 Earnings Preview - UC Todayuctoday.com
- 5Dear Zoom Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for August 25barchart.com
- 6How Zoom’s New ZoomMate AI Launch Amid Slower Expansion Will Impact Zoom Communications (ZM) Investors - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
- 7Will Zoom Communications (ZM) beat quarterly earnings? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 8Zoom Communications, Inc. Shs A Cert Deposito Arg Repr...tradingview.com
- 9Zoom Communications (ZM) Delivers +19.4% Surge on Earnings and AI Momentumtickeron.com
5. What market pressures from competitors like Cisco Webex and RingCentral could compel Zoom to revise its full-year FY 2027 guidance on the August 25th call?
| Cisco Collaboration Segment Growth | 12% [1] |
|---|---|
| RingCentral Growth | 5.9% [1] |
| Zoom FY2027 Revenue Guidance | $5.08 billion–$5.09 billion [2][3] |
Strong competitive growth from rivals could prompt Zoom to revise its FY2027 guidance. Cisco's Collaboration segment reported a 12% growth, while RingCentral achieved 5.9% growth, both exceeding Zoom's guided Q2 FY2027 growth of 4.1% [1]. This competitive performance intensifies pressure on Zoom to sustain its growth trajectory, leading the market to question the viability of its current full-year FY2027 guidance ahead of the August 25th call [1][4].
Zoom's current FY2027 guidance faces scrutiny ahead of earnings. The company had previously raised its FY2027 guidance in May 2026 to $5.08 billion–$5.09 billion in revenue [1][4]. As of August 20, 2026, Zoom's official FY2027 guidance remains set at $5.08 billion–$5.09 billion for revenue and $5.96–$6.00 for non-GAAP EPS [2][3]. Analysts suggest that a decision to lower this full-year guidance on the upcoming call would signal that Zoom's growth challenges, including competitive pressure and an "awareness problem," are more significant than previously indicated [1].
6. What is the analyst consensus regarding the adoption and monetization of Zoom's AI Companion ahead of its Q2 FY27 earnings call?
| Paid MAU Growth Q1 | 184% year-over-year (Q1) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| FY27 Revenue Guidance | $5.08–$5.09 billion [1][3] |
| FY27 Guidance Decision Date | August 25, 2026 [1][3] |
Ahead of Zoom's Q2 FY27 earnings call, analysts observe AI Companion adoption has not yet boosted revenue. A significant disconnect exists where strong adoption of AI Companion, including 184% year-over-year paid MAU growth in Q1, has not visibly translated into substantial top-line revenue. This raises questions about the effectiveness of its monetization, with analysts focusing on whether AI Companion can evolve into a direct revenue driver rather than solely a churn-reduction tool [1][2].
Future AI Companion initiatives aim to drive direct revenue. The upcoming July launch of Custom AI Companion and its integrations with third-party applications such as ServiceNow, Jira, and Asana are being closely observed. These initiatives are expected to address the current challenge where AI primarily serves to reduce churn, aiming to transform into viable monetization engines [1][2].
The FY27 revenue guidance decision is a key signal for growth. The prediction market and broader analyst sentiment are concentrated on whether Zoom will maintain or revise its FY27 revenue guidance of $5.08–$5.09 billion. This decision, anticipated on August 25, 2026, will be a crucial indicator of whether the AI strategy is successfully scaling or if growth continues to face pressure [1][3].
7. How does Zoom's Contact Center growth compare to platforms from Cisco and RingCentral, according to 2026 IDC MarketScape and other industry reports?
| IDC MarketScape Recognition | Leader (2026 IDC MarketScape: Worldwide Agentic Contact Center as a Service (CCaaS) Platforms) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Zoom Contact Center ARR Growth | High double-digit rates (fastest-growing challenger in the CCaaS market) [3][4] |
| Zoom CX Business Growth | Accelerating, high double-digit growth [4] |
Zoom's Contact Center Shows Rapid Growth and Market Leadership
Zoom leads the CCaaS market with strong growth and AI integration. Zoom has been recognized as a Leader in the 2026 IDC MarketScape for Worldwide Agentic Contact Center as a Service (CCaaS) Platforms, a testament to its successful investments in AI-integrated, unified communications-based contact center solutions [1][2][3]. Zoom Contact Center is rapidly advancing in the CCaaS market, identified as the fastest-growing challenger, with its Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) showing high double-digit growth rates. This growth frequently enables Zoom to displace legacy CCaaS vendors in competitive deals [3][4].
Zoom's CX business accelerates despite competitors' overall revenue lead. While industry analyses indicate that Cisco's Webex and RingCentral have reportedly outperformed Zoom's overall revenue growth rates, Zoom's dedicated Customer Experience (CX) business, which includes its Contact Center, is demonstrating accelerating, high double-digit growth [5][6][4]. This distinction highlights the strategic importance of Zoom's CX segment, with upcoming earnings discussions expected to focus on this accelerating growth as a key counterweight to any potential slowing in total revenue growth [4].
Sources (6)
- 1Zoom Named a Leader in the IDC MarketScape: Worldwide Agentic Contact Center as a Service Platforms 2026 | Zoomzoom.com
- 2Zoom | 2026 IDC Agentic CCaaS Marketscape Reportclick.zoom.com
- 3https://www.inflectioncx.com/intelligence/guides/ccaas-market-guide-2026inflectioncx.com
- 4Zoom Q2 FY27 Earnings Preview - UC Todayuctoday.com
- 5Operational Wins in CCaaS: Amazon, Genesys, and Zoom Leadresearch.etr.ai
- 6IDC: Customer Engagement Solutions Are a Pathway to High Value UC&C Seatsnojitter.com
8. Based on transcripts from FY2026, what is the historical frequency of mentions for key growth products like 'AI Companion' versus headwinds like 'churn'?
| AI Companion MAU Growth | Triple-digit year-over-year growth in monthly active users (MAUs) (Q4 FY2026) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Churn Discussion Segment | Primarily within the Online business segment (Q4 FY2026) [1][3][4] |
| Churn Framing | Framed as 'stabilizing' or at 'long-term low' levels (Q4 FY2026) [1][3][4] |
AI Companion was a consistently prioritized growth driver for Zoom in FY2026. Throughout the fiscal year, Zoom frequently highlighted this feature, emphasizing its critical role in driving platform innovation and user engagement. Notably, in Q4 FY2026, the company reported triple-digit year-over-year growth in monthly active users (MAUs) for AI Companion [1][2][3][4].
Churn discussions centered on stabilization, primarily in the Online business. In Q4 FY2026, references to churn were predominantly confined to Zoom's Online operations. Despite acknowledging nominal quarterly upticks, the company consistently characterized churn as either 'stabilizing' or reaching 'long-term low' levels [1][3][4].
Sources (4)
- 1Zoom (ZM) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 2https://investors.zoom.us/static-files/1a6c3386-a1f6-4276-8e0f-6182be10a1a1investors.zoom.us
- 3Zoom (ZM) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 4Zoom Communications, Inc. (ZM) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Call Transcript - May 21, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
9. What recent federal government contracts or FedRAMP authorizations could trigger a significant mention of the 'Federal' vertical during Zoom's Q2 FY27 call?
| New Federal Contracts/FedRAMP | None identified weeks before Q2 FY27 earnings call (August 20, 2026 cutoff) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] |
|---|---|
| Current FedRAMP Status | Moderate, DoD Impact Level 4 (IL4) [8][9][10] |
| Government Demand Early 2026 | Active, with solicitations for thousands of seats [11][10] |
No specific new federal contracts or authorizations are publicly documented. As of August 20, 2026, no new federal government contracts or FedRAMP authorizations for Zoom have been publicly announced in the weeks leading up to their Q2 FY27 earnings call, scheduled for August 25, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. The available information does not contain data identifying specific new agreements or authorizations that would prompt a significant mention of the 'Federal' vertical in the upcoming earnings call [1][2][3][4].
Zoom maintains existing federal credentials and ongoing demand for its services. Zoom continues to hold its FedRAMP Moderate authorization and DoD Impact Level 4 (IL4) status, with government agencies like the EPA continuing to utilize the Zoom for Government platform as of mid-2026 [8][9][10]. Demand for Zoom for Government licenses remained active in early 2026, as evidenced by agency solicitations and procurements for thousands of seats throughout the first half of the year [11][10]. Zoom identifies sales to the U.S. federal government as a significant vertical, recognizing its complex sales cycles [12].
Current federal usage primarily involves standard communication tools, not new contracts. Zoom's deployment within federal institutions, such as the Federal Reserve, is primarily as a standard communication and webinar tool [13][14][15]. This existing usage is not linked to new, high-profile government-wide procurement contracts that would typically trigger a significant announcement [13][14][15].
Sources (15)
- 1Federal Government; Nonresidential Software, Current Cost Basis, Transactions (BOGZ1FA315013365A) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 2Federal Government; Consumption of Fixed Capital, Nonresidential Software, Current Cost Basis, Transactions (BOGZ1FA316330033Q) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 3Federal Government; Consumption of Fixed Capital, Nonresidential Software, Current Cost Basis, Transactions (BOGZ1FU316330033Q) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
- 4Federal Government; Nonresidential Software, Current Cost Basis, Transactions | ALFRED | St. Louis Fedalfred.stlouisfed.org
- 5Zoom to Release Financial Results for the Second Quarter ofglobenewswire.com
- 6Zoom to Release Financial Results for the Second Quarter of Fiscal Year 2027itnewsonline.com
- 7Zoom to Release Financial Results for the Second Quarter of Fiscal Year 2027 | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 8PRIVACYIMPACTASSESSMENTepa.gov
- 9Zoom for Governmentzoomgov.com
- 10FMCS Zoom for Government Combined synopsis solicitationconsole.sweetspotgov.com
- 11SAM.govsam.gov
- 12Form 10-K for Zoom Communications INC filed 02/27/2026investors.zoom.us
- 13Transcriptclevelandfed.org
- 14Summer Law Clerk Program - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORKnewyorkfed.org
- 15UPDATEnewyorkfed.org
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Zoom Video Communications is expected to release its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2027 on August 25, 2026 [1], with an earnings call scheduled for Tuesday, August 25, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET [2][3][4]. Management has issued Q2 FY27 revenue guidance of $1.265 billion to $1.270 billion and non-GAAP diluted EPS between $1.45 and $1.47 [5][6]. The Street consensus for Q2 FY27 non-GAAP EPS is $1.48 [1].
Market participants will focus on whether Zoom's reported non-GAAP EPS surpasses the $1.48 consensus estimate [1][7]. Another key driver will be any revision to the full-year FY27 revenue guidance of $5.08 billion to $5.09 billion, particularly given competitive growth concerns [8]. Current market sentiment reflects a bullish outlook, with Bank of America upgrading Zoom to "Buy" and setting a $130 price target, citing the company's enterprise platform transition and AI adoption [9][10][11].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: December 31, 2026
- Closes: December 31, 2026
Sources (11)
- 1https://polymarket.com/id/event/zm-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-08-25-2026-1pt48polymarket.com
- 2Investor Relations | Zoom Communications, Inc.investors.zoom.us
- 3Zoom Communications (ZM) Stock News & Updatesstocktitan.net
- 4Zoom Communications (ZM) to Post Earnings on Tuesday - American Market Newsamericanbankingnews.com
- 5Zoom Communications reports financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 | ZAWYAzawya.com
- 6Zoom (ZM) Q1 2027 Summary | Quartrquartr.com
- 7Earnings Odds & Predictions 2026polymarket.com
- 8Zoom Q2 FY27 Earnings Preview - UC Todayuctoday.com
- 9Zoom Stock Just Scored a New 'Buy' Rating. Here's Why.barchart.com
- 10BofA Upgrades Zoom Communications to Buy From Neutral, Price Target is $130 | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 11Zoom's Growth Reacceleration Is Durable as It Moves Beyond Meetings, BofA Says | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
