What will Ross Stores say during their next earnings call?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Ross Stores to mention "Closeout" during their next earnings call, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market saw a decisive and final price collapse timed to the resolution event. The contract traded in a range between 39.0% and a peak of 56.0% before the earnings call. On August 20, the price saw a minor intraday move to 41.0% before dropping 40.0 percentage points to settle at 1.0% the following day. This rapid repricing indicates the market's core question was answered definitively during the August 20 earnings call. The market's initial pricing suggested moderate uncertainty about the outcome, but the post-call sentiment is one of near-total certainty that the specified mention did not occur.
The price action establishes a clear pivot point around the 40-41% level, which acted as a de facto line of demarcation before the call. The post-event price of 1.0% represents a new, firm floor, suggesting the market has fully resolved. Total volume of 6,708 contracts indicates moderate liquidity over the life of the market. The volume on the day of the price collapse and the day after was extremely low, which is typical for a market where the outcome becomes public knowledge and trading activity ceases as the contract value settles near 0 or 100.
- Ross likely discussed Northeast expansion, having opened 15 new stores there.
- Off-price mentions are probable, driven by strong Q2 sales and macroeconomic tailwinds.
- A flywheel discussion may stem from self-checkout rollouts and Home department focus.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dress for Less | 1.0% | 0.3% | Ross Stores' core value proposition is providing apparel and home fashion at affordable prices. |
| Beauty | 1.0% | 0.3% | Beauty products are typically a minor focus compared to broader merchandise categories for Ross Stores. |
| Bankruptcy | 1.0% | 0.2% | Bankruptcy is a negative and uncommon topic for a healthy retailer's earnings call. |
| Packaway | 99.0% | 97.0% | Ross Stores often discusses inventory management strategies, including packaway, during earnings calls. |
| Flywheel | 99.0% | 97.0% | Management frequently discusses business operational efficiency and growth strategies like the flywheel effect. |
Current Context
Ross Stores reported strong Q2 2026 results, surpassing analyst estimates. The company held its second-quarter 2026 earnings conference call on August 20, 2026, at 4:15 p.m. ET [1][2][3]. Ross Stores announced adjusted earnings of $2.06 per share, exceeding analyst estimates of $1.93-$1.95 per share. Total revenue for the second quarter rose approximately 13% to $6.26 billion, also beating market expectations [4][5].
Management raised the annual profit forecast, citing robust demand and tariff refunds. The company now expects full-year earnings per share in the range of $8.61 to $8.77, an increase from its prior outlook of $7.50 to $7.74 [4][5]. These results stemmed from resilient demand for discounted apparel and accessories, particularly in the U.S. Midwest and within the home and cosmetics segments, alongside about $253 million in tariff refunds [4].
The company projects its next earnings call for Q3 2026 in November. Ross Stores' next earnings call for Q3 2026 is projected for November 19, 2026 [6].
Sources (6)
- 1Ross Stores, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call | Ross Stores, Inc.investors.rossstores.com
- 2Ross Stores Reports Strong Second Quarter Sales and Earnings Results | Ross Stores, Inc.investors.rossstores.com
- 3Ross Stores, Inc.: overviewinvestors.rossstores.com
- 4Ross Stores raises annual profit forecast again on discounted apparel demand - SRN Newssrnnews.com
- 5Ross Stores: Fiscal Q2 Earnings Snapshotlmtonline.com
- 6Ross Stores (ROST) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings Call...public.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: New York
📉 August 20, 2026: 83.0pp drop
Price decreased from 84.0% to 1.0%
What happened: The provided research indicates that Ross Stores' stock experienced only a minor decline of approximately 2.4% on August 20, 2026, which was likely influenced by broader retail sector sentiment rather than an 83.0 percentage point drop [1]. The company's Q2 2026 earnings call reported strong financial results, beat analyst expectations, and provided positive guidance, making a substantial negative movement for a specific mention highly improbable [2]. There is no information in the available sources regarding social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors that would support an 83.0 percentage point drop in a prediction market outcome specifically related to "New York" mentions [2]. Therefore, the described market movement appears unsupported by the available evidence.
Outcome: Self-Checkout
📈 August 19, 2026: 56.0pp spike
Price increased from 6.0% to 62.0%
What happened: The research indicates there is no public evidence of a "56.0 percentage point spike" in a prediction market regarding "Self-Checkout" mentions by Ross Stores on August 19, 2026 [3][4]. Ross Stores' second-quarter 2026 earnings call, where such mentions would typically occur, was actually held on August 20, 2026 [5][2][6]. While Ross Stores had previously acknowledged piloting and expanding self-checkout in 2026, no specific news or market event leading to a spike on August 19, 2026, has been identified [3]. Therefore, social media cannot be identified as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or even as noise for this unsubstantiated price movement.
Sources (6)
- 1https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/ross-stores-nasdaqrost-posts-earnings-results-beats-expectations-by-012-eps-2026-08-20/marketbeat.com
- 2Ross Stores Reports Strong Second Quarter Sales and Earnings Results | Ross Stores, Inc.investors.rossstores.com
- 3Ross Stores CEO eyes a change that could drive away shoppers - AOLaol.com
- 4https://polymarket.com/event/ross-stores-q1-comparable-store-sales-growth-378polymarket.com
- 5Ross Stores, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call | Ross Stores, Inc.investors.rossstores.com
- 6Ross Stores (ROST) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings Call...public.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market allows users to predict whether Ross Stores will mention specific terms, such as "Bankruptcy," "Beauty," or "Dress for Less," during its next earnings call. The provided content does not explicitly define the exact triggers for a "Yes" or "No" resolution for these individual predictions. The maximum payout for this market is set for December 31, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closeout | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Flywheel | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Home | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Northeast | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Off-Price | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Packaway | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Bankruptcy | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Beauty | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| California | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Dress for Less | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Korean | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| New York | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Self-Checkout | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Texas | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Public discussion indicates that no active prediction market analysis or expert-curated content is currently available regarding the specific content or outlook of Ross Stores' next earnings call [1]. During its Q2 2026 earnings call on August 20, 2026, management announced Q2 diluted EPS of $2.66, raised its full-year 2026 EPS guidance, and provided updated guidance for the second half of the year [2]. While Ross Stores has a high bullish sentiment on social media, prediction market interest in its earnings results was low leading up to the Q2 call, typically focusing instead on comparable store sales growth [3].
5. How did Ross Stores' key performance indicators in Q2 2026 compare against those of its primary competitor, TJX Companies?
| Subject of "Ross" in predictive context | Deborah Ross, U.S. House candidate for North Carolina's 2nd District [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Ross Stores earnings call on August 20, 2026 | No information exists [1][2][3][4] |
| Attribution of Q2 2026 financial data | Incorrectly linked to Ross Stores, Inc. [1][2][3][4] |
Ross Stores reported stronger Q2 2026 key performance indicators compared to TJX Companies. Ross Stores demonstrated a 10% comparable store sales growth, which surpassed TJX Companies' 4% growth during the same quarter [5][6][7][8]. Furthermore, Ross Stores' Q2 2026 diluted earnings per share (EPS) was $2.66, significantly higher than TJX Companies' $1.36 [5][7][8]. It was noted that Ross's EPS included a $0.60 benefit from tariff refunds, while TJX's EPS included a $0.14 net benefit [5][7][8].
Crucially, certain reported information for "Ross" was misattributed to the company. The mention of "Ross" in the predictive context of an August 20, 2026 earnings call and associated financial guidance refers to Deborah Ross, a U.S. House candidate, and not Ross Stores, Inc. [1][2][3][4]. Consequently, there is no available information regarding a Ross Stores, Inc. earnings call on August 20, 2026, and details such as raised fiscal 2026 full-year EPS guidance ($8.61–$8.77) and plans for 115 new store openings are not attributable to Ross Stores, Inc. [1][2][3][4].
Sources (8)
- 1Daily Brew: August 20, 2026ballotpedia.org
- 2ROSS, DEBORAH - Candidate overview | FECfec.gov
- 3Ten U.S. House incumbents have lost primaries to non-incumbents this year, tying 2022 for the most since at least 2014 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 42026 North Carolina US House 2 Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 5Ross Stores Reports Strong Second Quarter Sales and Earnings Results | Ross Stores, Inc.investors.rossstores.com
- 6Earnings call transcript: Ross Stores tops Q2 2026...investing.com
- 7TJX Reports Q2 FY27 Results; Above-Plan Comp Sales Growth of 4%; Pretax Profit Margin and Diluted EPS Both Well Above Plan; Increases Full Year FY27 Pretax Profit Margin and EPS Guidance | The TJX Companies, Inc.investor.tjx.com
- 8Documentsec.gov
6. What major macroeconomic trends in Q2 2026 were most likely to influence Ross Stores' commentary on consumer behavior and its full-year guidance?
| Full-year 2026 EPS Guidance | $8.61 to $8.77 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Tariff-related EPS Gain | Approximately $0.60 [1][3] |
| 2026 New Store Openings | 115 locations [4][3] |
Macroeconomic pressures drove Ross Stores' strong Q2 performance and guidance raise. In Q2 2026, Ross Stores' commentary on consumer behavior and its full-year guidance were significantly influenced by macroeconomic pressures, notably inflation and elevated gas prices [1]. These economic conditions encouraged shoppers across diverse income demographics and age groups to seek value-focused offerings, resulting in broad-based customer traffic growth for the company [1]. This robust performance enabled Ross Stores to increase its full-year 2026 earnings per share guidance to a range of $8.61 to $8.77 [1][2][3].
Operational factors and strategic expansion also shaped Ross Stores' outlook. Higher freight costs, stemming from fuel price increases, represented a key consideration [1]. The company also acknowledged potential inventory risks due to rapidly increasing stock levels and the challenge of cycling strong year-over-year comparable sales comparisons [1][3]. Conversely, tariff-related gains provided a positive impact, contributing approximately $0.60 to earnings per share [1]. Demonstrating confidence in its business model, Ross Stores revised its 2026 new store opening plan upward to 115 locations, an increase from its prior targets [1][3][4].
Sources (4)
- 1Earnings call transcript: Ross Stores tops Q2 2026...investing.com
- 2Ross Stores Inc (ROST) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlightsfinance.yahoo.com
- 3Ross Stores Reports Strong Second Quarter Sales and...prnewswire.com
- 4Ross Stores Plans 110 New Locations in 2026 as Discount Demand Drives Expansion - DTC Dispatchdtcdispatch.com
7. What evidence from H1 2026 company statements or real estate data supported a potential discussion of expansion in the 'Northeast' or 'California'?
| Ross Dress for Less Expansion Region | Northeast (H1 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| dd's DISCOUNTS Expansion Region | California (H1 2026) [1][2][3] |
| 2026 New Store Opening Plan | 115 total locations (previously 110) [1][4] |
Strong Q2 performance led to an increased expansion plan for the company. On August 20, 2026, CEO Jim Conroy announced robust sales and traffic figures during the Q2 earnings call. Following this positive performance, management decided to increase the 2026 new store opening plan from an initial 110 locations to a total of 115 locations [1][4].
Sources (4)
- 1Ross Stores Reports Strong Second Quarter Sales and Earnings Results | Ross Stores, Inc.investors.rossstores.com
- 2Ross Continues Expansion with the Opening of 17 Storesinvestors.rossstores.com
- 3Ross accelerates brick-and-mortar expansion with nearly 50 new locations | Retail Diveretaildive.com
- 4Ross Stores raises annual profit forecast again on discounted apparel demand - SRN Newssrnnews.com
8. Is alternative data, such as foot traffic or credit card transactions for Q2 2026, available to provide leading indicators on Ross Stores' performance versus competitors?
| Q2 2026 Foot Traffic Growth | 16.4% year-over-year [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 Sales Growth | 13% [4][3] |
| Q2 2026 Comparable-Store Sales Growth | 10% [4][3] |
Foot traffic effectively predicted Ross Stores' strong Q2 2026 performance. Alternative data, particularly foot traffic analysis, demonstrated high effectiveness as a leading indicator for the company during this period. Ross Dress for Less experienced a significant 16.4% year-over-year increase in foot traffic during the quarter, which directly correlated with the company's robust sales growth [1][2][3].
Ross Stores' Q2 2026 results confirmed the positive foot traffic trend. On August 20, 2026, Ross Stores announced strong financial results for the second quarter during its earnings call, including a 13% rise in sales and a 10% increase in comparable-store sales. These gains were largely driven by heightened customer traffic [4][3]. Following these results, management raised its guidance for the second half of 2026, anticipating comparable-store sales growth of 6% to 7% in Q3 and 4% to 5% in the holiday quarter. The company also expanded its plan to open 115 new stores for the year [3]. The provided research did not contain information regarding the availability or use of credit card transactions as alternative data for this period.
Sources (4)
- 1Ross Leads in Q2 2026 as Off-Price Growth Concentrates at the Value End – Placer.ai Blogplacer.ai
- 2Ross Q2 traffic beats big boxes by a mile | Home Textiles Todayhometextilestoday.com
- 3Store traffic lifts Ross Stores sales in second quartermassmarketretailers.com
- 4Ross Stores Reports Strong Second Quarter Sales and Earnings Results | Ross Stores, Inc.investors.rossstores.com
9. Which specific business initiatives, like 'Self-Checkout' rollouts or 'Home' department focus, were flagged as key drivers in analyst previews of the Q2 2026 report?
| Earnings Report Preview | Q2 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Key Initiative 1 | Self-checkout kiosks rollout [1][2] |
| Key Initiative 2 | Home department turnaround [1][2] |
Analyst previews indicate two key business initiatives will drive Q2 2026 performance. These initiatives include the continued rollout of self-checkout kiosks and a strategic turnaround for the home department [1][2]. The ongoing implementation of self-checkout kiosks, particularly in high-volume store locations, is expected to improve overall throughput and help alleviate rising wage pressures, representing a significant operational enhancement [1][2].
Home department turnaround addresses past challenges, particularly tariff impacts. Analysts have pointed to a strategic turnaround effort within the home department, which had previously encountered substantial challenges. These difficulties were largely attributed to significant headwinds caused by tariffs [1][2].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Ross Stores held its Q2 2026 earnings conference call on August 20, 2026, at 4:15 p.m. EDT [1][2][3]. Management announced strong Q2 results during the call, including a 13% rise in sales to $6.265 billion and a 10% increase in comparable-store sales [4][5][6]. EPS reached $2.66, bolstered by a $253 million, or ~$0.60/share, IEEPA tariff refund [4][5][6].
Following these results, Ross raised its full-year 2026 EPS outlook to $8.61–$8.77 and increased its annual store opening target to 115 new locations [4][5][6]. Management guided for Q3 comparable-store sales growth of 6% to 7% and Q4 growth of 4% to 5%, citing continued demand for value-priced merchandise despite economic uncertainty [4][6].
Earlier, Ross Stores reported strong fiscal first-quarter 2026 results. This included a 1% increase in comparable store sales and total sales growth of $6.0 billion, which exceeded analyst expectations [7].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: December 31, 2026
- Closes: December 31, 2026
Sources (7)
- 1Q2 2026 Ross Stores, Inc. Earnings Conference Callinvestors.rossstores.com
- 2Ross Stores, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call | Ross Stores, Inc.investors.rossstores.com
- 3Ross Stores Reports Strong Second Quarter Sales and Earnings Results | Ross Stores, Inc.investors.rossstores.com
- 4Ross Stores raises annual profit forecast again on discounted apparel demand - SRN Newssrnnews.com
- 5Ross Stores posts Q2 sales up 13% and EPS $2.66; raises fiscal 2026 outlook — TradingView Newstradingview.com
- 6Ross Stores Q2 Earnings Call Highlights - Ticker Reporttickerreport.com
- 7https://polymarket.com/event/ross-stores-q1-comparable-store-sales-growth-378polymarket.com
