Short Answer

CarMax is likely to discuss "Conversion" during their earnings call on September 29, 2026, with the market pricing this outcome at 99.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's defining movement was an 85.0 percentage point spike on September 28, 2026. Available information does not identify a specific news event or other catalyst corresponding with this repricing.

The market is pricing expectations ahead of CarMax's fiscal Q2 2027 earnings call on September 29. The participation of CarMax Auto Finance executive Jon Daniels on the call may influence sentiment on this topic. Consensus analyst expectations point to year-over-year growth in revenue and EPS, but there is notable dispersion in the estimates. After the initial spike, the price has pulled back to 69.0%.

Interest Rate and Leverage mentions are likely due to ongoing financing challenges impacting affordability.
Gross Profit Per Unit commentary is expected flat to modestly higher based on analyst consensus.
Omnichannel execution challenges and demand proxies suggest a focus on 'Conversion' effectiveness.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome	Market	Model	Why
GPU	99.0%	98.4%	Gross profit per unit is a critical indicator of profitability on vehicle sales.
Leverage	99.0%	98.4%	The company's financial leverage impacts its borrowing costs and investment capacity.
Interest Rate	99.0%	99.0%	Rising interest rates directly affect auto loan affordability and consumer demand.
Loan Loss	98.0%	98.7%	Loan loss provisions reflect the credit quality of the company's financing portfolio.
Selection	99.0%	98.4%	Broad vehicle selection is crucial for attracting customers and driving sales volume.

Current Context

CarMax fiscal Q2 2027 results arrive September 29 with mixed sentiment. The company is scheduled to report for the quarter ended August 31, 2026, before market open on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, followed by an investor call at 8:00 a.m. ET, with CEO Keith Barr, CFO Enrique Mayor-Mora, and CarMax Auto Finance executive Jon Daniels participating ^[1]. Consensus expectations for diluted EPS range from $0.70-$0.73, against $0.64 year-over-year, and revenue is anticipated between $6.94-$7.09 billion, compared to $6.59 billion previously; estimate dispersion is notable ^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]. Analyst sentiment is cautious-to-neutral; JPMorgan maintained a Neutral rating while raising its target from $60 to $70 on September 18, 2026, with other firms issuing similar ratings and target increases ^[4]^[5]. Prediction markets prior to the call leaned toward an EPS beat, with implied probabilities for GAAP EPS above a $0.72 threshold ranging from 69.5%-76.5%, though these markets had limited liquidity and inconsistent snapshots, making them sentiment indicators rather than reliable forecasts ^[7]^[8]^[9]^[10]. The evidence does not support a confident directional stock call ^[7]^[10]^[11].

Management will likely emphasize efficiency and strategic progress amid demand challenges. The base-case prediction is that CarMax will frame the results as modest year-over-year growth and continued strategic advancement, highlighting SG&A savings, leaner operations, wholesale strength, and signs of retail improvement ^[2]^[12]^[13]^[14]^[15]. Management is expected to acknowledge ongoing affordability-sensitive demand and lower vehicle margins ^[2]^[12]^[13]^[14]^[15]. The company's prior message focused on a four-pillar strategy and a target of approximately $200 million in fiscal-year SG&A savings, while warning that lower gross profit per retail used vehicle would persist ^[12]^[13]. Likely operating topics for discussion include retail used-unit and comparable-store volume recovery, gross profit per retail unit, wholesale volume, inventory discipline, CarMax Auto Finance credit and earnings, and execution of cost reductions ^[14]^[15]^[16]^[7]^[10]. Analysts describe demand as soft and margins pressured, despite expected revenue growth ^[13]^[14]^[15]^[16]. The principal risks include soft used-vehicle demand, pricing pressure on gross profit, affordability, financing conditions, and whether cost savings can offset margin pressure ^[7]^[10].

A precise full-year outlook or new guidance is uncertain, as CarMax typically provides no forward-looking information ^[2]^[12]^[13]^[14]^[15]. This contrasts with a strong fiscal Q1 2027, where CarMax reported $1.31 GAAP EPS against a $0.94 consensus and $8.01 billion revenue versus $7.42 billion expected, attributing the performance to inventory discipline, SG&A reductions, and retail-wholesale margin stability ^[7]^[17]. However, the prior fiscal Q4 2026 saw a negative $0.85 GAAP EPS after a $358 million goodwill impairment, suggesting potential discussions around GAAP quality and one-time items ^[18]^[19]. The most likely outcome for the Q2 call is a framing around an efficiency-and-stabilization narrative, with a modest GAAP-EPS beat near or above $0.70–$0.72. Commentary on volumes, gross profit per unit, financing, and further cost actions will likely influence share-price reaction ^[7]^[10]^[11].

Sources (19)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Affordability

📉 September 29, 2026: 69.0pp drop

Price decreased from 79.0% to 10.0%

What happened: The provided research indicates that the reported "69.0 percentage point drop" in the prediction market for "Affordability" mentions is not independently verifiable and is unsubstantiated by the retrieved public sources ^[1]^[2]. The figure appears in other contexts, such as a five-year stock decline or a revenue change, but not as a documented percentage-point change related to affordability mentions in CarMax's upcoming earnings call ^[3]^[4]^[5]. Therefore, based on the available information, no primary driver for this specific price movement, whether social media, traditional news, or market structure, can be identified, as the movement itself is not confirmed to have occurred as described. Social media's role is thus irrelevant due to the unconfirmed nature of the movement.

Outcome: Leverage

📈 September 28, 2026: 85.0pp spike

Price increased from 4.0% to 89.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 85.0 percentage point spike in the "Leverage" outcome on September 28, 2026, cannot be definitively identified from the provided information, as the retrieved evidence does not establish a specific social media post or news catalyst for this movement ^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]. However, the spike occurred the day before CarMax's Q2 FY2027 earnings call on September 29, 2026, where management was already widely expected to discuss "leverage" in the context of SG&A savings, cost efficiency, and operating improvements ^[10]^[11]^[12]^[6]^[1]^[2]. The movement likely reflected intensified market anticipation around this pre-existing narrative rather than a new, specific external event ^[6]^[7]^[8]. Based on the available data, social media was mostly noise or an unidentifiable contributing accelerant, as no specific posts or trends were found to lead or coincide with the sharp rise.

Sources (12)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market predicts whether CarMax will discuss "Logistics" during its next earnings call. The specific conditions that trigger a "Yes" or "No" resolution for this market are not detailed in the provided content. The maximum payout date for this market is October 13, 2026.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket	Yes (price)	No (price)	Last trade probability
Conversion	$1.00	$0.39	99%
GPU	$1.00	$0.01	99%
Interest Rate	$1.00	$0.01	99%
Leverage	$1.00	$0.01	99%
Selection	$0.98	$0.26	99%
Loan Loss	$0.97	$0.69	98%
Reconditioning (3+ times)	$0.94	$0.45	94%
Logistics	$0.79	$0.84	88%
Inventory (3+ times)	$0.61	$0.87	76%
MaxCare / Max Care	$0.60	$0.87	66%
Acquisition Marketing	$0.75	$0.86	57%
Sierra	$0.43	$0.97	45%
Omnichannel	$0.61	$0.98	30%
AI Agent	$0.48	$0.95	16%
Affordability	$0.56	$0.98	10%

Market Discussion

CarMax is scheduled to report fiscal Q2 results on September 29, 2026, with public market probabilities suggesting a modest lean toward an EPS beat ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. The earnings call is expected to focus on CEO Keith Barr's turnaround strategy, including competitive pricing and stronger marketing to restore used-vehicle volume and market share, with discussions likely covering same-store used-unit sales, consumer affordability, and gross profit per unit ^[1]^[5]^[6]. Investors will likely seek evidence of sustainable improvements, given rising expectations, while monitoring risks related to soft demand, competitive pricing, and consumer financing affordability ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[7].

Sources (7)

5. Trust Index

“Logistics” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.

Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves

Trust score capped by Market integrity (20).

How it adds up

Integrity80% of score39High Risk

Trade quality20% of score62Caution

Weighted blend43overridden

Safety capMarket integrity40High Risk

Market integrity 20 is below the safety floor of 30, so the score can't exceed 40.

Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile

Integrity6 screens run · 1 doesn't apply · 3 awaiting data

6. What Q3 2026 macroeconomic data could influence CarMax's commentary on 'Affordability' and 'Loan Loss' provisions during its September 29 earnings call?

Avg New-Vehicle Payment	$821 (September 2026) ^[1]
Trade-ins with Negative Equity	29.4% (September 2026) ^[1]
Subprime 60+ Day Delinquency	Improved by full percentage point YoY (August 2026) ^[2]

Household cash flow and financing challenges continue to strain vehicle affordability. CarMax's commentary on 'Affordability' for Q3 2026 is expected to emphasize these pressures, despite modest relief in interest rates ^[3]^[1]. Evidence for this includes September 2026's average new-vehicle payments, projected to reach a record $821, a 3.2% year-over-year increase, even as the average new-car loan rate slightly declined to 6.66% ^[1]. The average transaction price also increased to $45,915, representing a 0.7% rise, and nearly three-tenths (29.4%) of trade-ins were in negative equity ^[1]. Furthermore, Q3 dealer sentiment deteriorated, with the current-market index falling from 43 to 41, as dealers identified inflation, fuel prices, interest rates, and overall economic uncertainty as factors limiting used-car purchasing power ^[4].

Loan loss discussions will likely reflect a complex and mixed credit environment. While the August 2026 approval rate reached a 12-month high of 73.9%, it still trailed the rate from the previous August ^[2]. Concerns persist due to 57% of loans originating underwater and the reduced cushion provided by long terms should labor conditions soften ^[2]. Conversely, August 2026 also saw a decline in delinquencies across nearly all tiers, with subprime 60-plus-day delinquency improving by a full percentage point year-over-year ^[2]. Total auto debt stood at $1.7 trillion in May 2026, with subprime debt comprising 21.5% and 60-plus-day delinquency at 1.7%, marking a 1.8% year-over-year decrease ^[5]. CarMax's Q1 FY2027 provision for loan losses was $95.6 million, down from $101.7 million a year earlier, and its allowance was $475.0 million, representing 2.95% of auto loans held for investment ^[6]^[7]. A key distinction for the September 2026 earnings call will be whether macroeconomic stress is worsening the performance of seasoned vintages or primarily increasing the expected lifetime loss on newer Tier 2 originations ^[8]^[9].

Sources (9)

7. How does analyst consensus from firms like JPMorgan for CarMax's Q2 2027 gross profit per unit compare to the prior year's results?

Q2 FY2027 Retail GPU Expectation	$2,200-$2,500 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]
Q2 FY2026 Actual Retail GPU	$2,216 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]
Q2 FY2027 Analyst EPS Expectation	$0.57-$0.73 ^[6]^[3]^[7]^[8]^[9]

Analysts project CarMax's Q2 FY2027 gross profit per unit flat to modestly higher. The consensus for CarMax's retail used-vehicle gross profit per unit (GPU) in Q2 FY2027 is generally anticipated to be between $2,200 and $2,500. This range suggests results that are roughly flat to modestly higher when compared to the actual retail GPU of $2,216 reported for Q2 FY2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]. A more precise forecast places expectations in the $2,250-$2,400 range ^[1]^[2]^[3]. This outlook follows a weaker trend observed in Q1 FY2027, where retail GPU was $2,177, marking a $230 year-over-year decrease from $2,407 ^[2]^[10].

Analysts anticipate improved Q2 FY2027 earnings per share despite GPU caution. Despite the relatively cautious outlook for GPU, analyst expectations for earnings per share (EPS) in Q2 FY2027 are generally projected to be above the prior year's $0.64. Forecasts for EPS range from approximately $0.57 to $0.73, indicating an expected improvement in earnings ^[6]^[3]^[7]^[8]^[9]. Management is also expected to emphasize the balance required between competitive pricing strategies, which aim to restore retail volume but exert pressure on GPU, and the planned approximately $200 million annualized SG&A savings program ^[2]^[3]^[10].

Sources (10)

8. How did CarMax's inventory levels and turnover in the quarter ending August 31, 2026, compare to primary competitor Carvana?

CarMax Inventory (May 31, 2026)	$4.063 billion ^[1]^[2]
Carvana Inventory (June 30, 2026)	$3.263 billion ^[3]^[4]
Carvana Quarterly Inventory Turnover (Q2 2026)	1.84 times ^[5]^[6]

Direct inventory comparison between CarMax and Carvana for the quarter is challenging. Specific inventory figures for CarMax's fiscal Q2 2027, which concluded on August 31, 2026, are not available in the provided research ^[1]^[2]. However, CarMax reported inventory totaling $4.063 billion as of May 31, 2026, marking a 1.8% decrease from the beginning of its fiscal year 2027 ^[1]^[2]. In contrast, Carvana's vehicle inventory for its quarter ending June 30, 2026, was $3.263 billion, an increase from $2.408 billion reported at the close of December 2025 ^[3]^[4].

Carvana experienced significant growth in sales and reported inventory turnover. During its comparable quarter, Carvana's retail unit sales reached 197,325, a substantial 37.7% increase year-over-year ^[3]^[4]. Carvana's reported quarterly inventory turnover for this period was 1.84 times ^[5]^[6]. A direct comparison of inventory turnover between CarMax and Carvana is not feasible because corresponding verified CarMax Q2 FY27 cost-of-sales and ending inventory data are absent ^[7]^[3].

CarMax's future earnings call will address inventory management strategies. The company's upcoming earnings call is anticipated to focus on inventory management, taking into account factors such as used-car demand, pricing strategies, and sales recovery. This focus is particularly relevant given Carvana's recent Q2 growth, which was accompanied by a significant increase in its own inventory ^[8]^[9]. Historically, CarMax management has emphasized maintaining a balance between inventory levels and sales performance ^[10]^[11].

Sources (11)

9. Are high-frequency alternative datasets available to track CarMax's sales volume and 'Acquisition Marketing' effectiveness for the quarter ending August 31, 2026?

CarMax Website Visits (August 2026)	21.269 million (estimated) ^[1]
CarMax Website Visits (June 2026)	20.149 million (estimated) ^[1]
CarMax Search Visits (August 2026)	7.5 million (estimated, up 2.7 million MoM) ^[2]

Alternative datasets effectively track CarMax's sales volume and consumer interest. High-frequency alternative datasets provide demand proxies such as web traffic and search interest for the quarter ending August 31, 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. AltIndex estimated 21.269 million CarMax website visits in August 2026, following 20.149 million in June and 20.647 million in July ^[1]. AhrefsTop further estimated 7.5 million search visits in August, marking a month-over-month increase of 2.7 million ^[2]. These web-traffic and search datasets serve to triangulate intra-quarter demand signals, acting as proxies for consumer interest ^[1]^[2]^[4].

Direct high-frequency data for CarMax's acquisition marketing is unavailable. Currently, no discovered high-frequency dataset directly measures CarMax's acquisition-marketing spend, attributed conversions, customer-acquisition cost, or vehicle-buy yield ^[4]. CarMax explicitly connected acquisition marketing to its operating performance in Q1 FY2027, stating that retail sales were bolstered by increased acquisition marketing, and advertising expense rose by $8 million to support both sales and vehicle purchases ^[5]^[6]^[7]. Management characterized this marketing spend as ROI-oriented and adaptable to market conditions ^[5]^[6]^[7], and the effectiveness of acquisition marketing was anticipated to be a discussion point within broader pricing, conversion, and sales trends during the upcoming earnings call ^[8]^[9].

Sources (9)

10. Based on transcripts from the last four quarters, what is the trend in management's mentions of 'Omnichannel' and 'Conversion'?

Digital capabilities supported retail sales	84% (Q1 FY2027) ^[1]^[2]
Omni sales	70% (Q1 FY2027) ^[1]^[2]
Online sales	14% (Q1 FY2027) ^[1]^[2]

Management consistently views omnichannel as a strategic asset with execution challenges. Across the last four quarters (FY2026 Q2-Q4, FY2027 Q1), discussions of 'omnichannel' have been prominently featured and strategically emphasized ^[1]^[3]. Initially positioned as a differentiated platform, management's focus evolved to acknowledge that its inherent complexity and weak digital-to-store integration were impeding successful execution ^[1]^[3]. For the upcoming call, 'omnichannel' is anticipated to be framed as a competitive advantage that requires either simplification or improved execution ^[4]^[5]^[1].

Conversion has gained operational emphasis, facing digital experience hurdles. Mentions of 'conversion' have shown an increasing operational focus ^[6]^[5]^[7]^[8]. In Q2 FY2026, improvements in lower-funnel conversion were noted. However, by Q3 FY2026, the digital experience was identified as needing simplification to effectively drive conversion rates ^[6]^[5]^[7]^[8]. Q4 FY2026 saw conversion levels remain flat despite a 14% increase in web traffic during that period ^[4].

Recent quarters highlight digital friction impairing conversion, prompting targeted fixes. The Q1 FY2027 call explicitly linked friction in the digital and in-store experience to impaired conversion outcomes ^[1]^[2]. To address this, management prioritized specific fixes, including better connecting digital capabilities with stores, simplifying pre-arrival communication, and equipping associates to improve conversion ^[1]^[2]. During Q1 FY2027, digital capabilities supported 84% of overall retail unit sales, with omni sales accounting for 70% and online sales for 14% ^[1]^[2].

Sources (8)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

CarMax is scheduled to report fiscal Q2 FY2027 results before the market opens on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, with an investor call at approximately 8:00 a.m. ET ^[1]. Consensus estimates cluster around $0.70

–$0.72 diluted EPS and $6.94

–$6.95 billion revenue, compared to $0.64 EPS and $6.59 billion revenue a year earlier ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. The near-term market setup is mixed-to-neutral; analysts have raised some price targets, but commentary also warns that the share price may have advanced faster than the underlying business ^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5].

The principal bullish setup centers on operational improvement and cost efficiency. In Q1 FY2027, CarMax reduced SG&A 3.7% year over year and improved SG&A per total unit 6.8% to $1,619 ^[6]^[7]. Wholesale units increased 8.4%, and CarMax Auto Finance penetration expanded 150 basis points to 43.3% ^[6]^[7]. The company remains on track for $200 million of exit-rate SG&A savings by the end of FY2027 ^[6]^[7]. Management is likely to emphasize its four-pillar growth strategy, cost efficiency, and unit-volume recovery, with FY2027 plans including four new stores, two stand-alone reconditioning/auction centers, two stand-alone auction facilities, and approximately $400 million of capital spending ^[6]^[5]^[8].

Conversely, the main bearish risks are still weak retail economics. Q1 comparable-store used-unit sales declined 0.8%, retail gross profit per unit fell $230 to $2,177, and total gross profit declined 4.4% ^[9]^[6]^[7]. CAF income slipped 1.0% to $140.2 million ^[9]^[6]^[7]. The call may describe demand as improving but affordability- and margin-constrained, with persistent softness in used-vehicle demand, competitive pricing pressure on gross profit per unit, and possible consumer-financing stress ^[9]^[6]^[7]^[10]^[11]^[12]^[13]. Key catalysts to monitor include comparable-store retail unit sales, retail gross profit per vehicle, CarMax Auto Finance credit performance, wholesale volumes, and any changes to management's outlook ^[2]^[9]^[3]^[4]. A positive retail-unit inflection and stable margins would be bullish, while another weak retail quarter or cautious guidance would be bearish ^[2]^[9]^[3]^[4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Expiration: October 13, 2026
Closes: October 13, 2026

Sources (13)

What will CarMax say during their next earnings call?

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

Outcome: Affordability

📉 September 29, 2026: 69.0pp drop

Outcome: Leverage

📈 September 28, 2026: 85.0pp spike

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

5. Trust Index

6. What Q3 2026 macroeconomic data could influence CarMax's commentary on 'Affordability' and 'Loan Loss' provisions during its September 29 earnings call?

7. How does analyst consensus from firms like JPMorgan for CarMax's Q2 2027 gross profit per unit compare to the prior year's results?

8. How did CarMax's inventory levels and turnover in the quarter ending August 31, 2026, compare to primary competitor Carvana?

9. Are high-frequency alternative datasets available to track CarMax's sales volume and 'Acquisition Marketing' effectiveness for the quarter ending August 31, 2026?

10. Based on transcripts from the last four quarters, what is the trend in management's mentions of 'Omnichannel' and 'Conversion'?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

13. Related News

CarMax Layoffs Shift Earnings Call Bets Toward Cost Control, Risk Topics

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome: Affordability

📉 September 29, 2026: 69.0pp drop

Outcome: Leverage

📈 September 28, 2026: 85.0pp spike

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

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