Short Answer

AAR Corp. is likely to mention El Salvador during its next earnings call, with the market pricing this outcome at 99.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market repriced sharply higher on September 29 following AAR Corp.'s pre-call release of strong first-quarter fiscal year 2027 results and the announcement of a transaction with MRO Holdings. The earnings report showed a 24% year-over-year sales increase to $918 million. The MRO Holdings deal was significant enough to prompt AAR to reschedule its earnings call to earlier the same day specifically to allow for its discussion.
The entire 41 percentage point move from 13.0% to 54.0% occurred on September 29, as traders absorbed the positive financial results and the strategic implications of the MRO transaction ahead of the call. The repricing reflects revised expectations about the content of management's commentary in light of these new developments.
  • MRO Holdings is expected given its exclusion from FY2027 guidance and leverage targets.
  • Oklahoma City facility expansion likely supports airframe MRO utilization outlook.

Current Context

AAR rescheduled its call after strong Q1 results, guiding low teens. AAR's Q1 FY2027 earnings call was rescheduled to 7:00 a.m. Central Time on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, from the original 4:00 p.m. CT, to allow discussion of the newly announced MRO Holdings transaction [1][2]. Results released before the call indicated Q1 FY2027 sales of $918 million, representing a 24% year-over-year increase [2][3][4]. GAAP diluted EPS was $1.00, and adjusted diluted EPS reached $1.49, up 38% [2][3][4]. Adjusted EBITDA stood at $117 million (+34%), with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.7% [2][3]. Management's Q2 FY2027 outlook, excluding Legacy Commercial Programs and MRO Holdings impact, projected 14%-16% sales growth and 13.0%-13.4% adjusted EBITDA margin [2][3]. Full-year FY2027 sales growth guidance was tightened to 'low teens,' and Q2 revenue guidance of approximately $906.6 million-$922.5 million exceeded the reported consensus of about $893.4 million [2][3].
The MRO Holdings acquisition will drive significant call discussion. AAR agreed to acquire a 65% controlling interest in MRO Holdings at an implied $4.0 billion enterprise value [5][6][7]. The initial payment involves approximately $1.8 billion in equity value and the repayment of $1.3 billion in debt [5][6][7]. Funding is anticipated to include $2.1 billion in new debt, $780 million of AAR equity issued at $135 per share, and a $230 million PIPE [5][6][7]. AAR expects MRO Holdings to contribute approximately $75 million in run-rate cost synergies [5][6][7]. The closing is projected for fiscal Q3 ending February 2027, pending necessary approvals [5][6][7]. Management is expected to address leverage, targeting approximately 3.6x at closing (including synergies), about 3.0x within two years, and a medium-term return to 2.0x-2.5x [5][6][7].
Analysts expect a beat, but prediction market data is scarce. Pre-call expert opinion was generally bullish on operations but expressed caution regarding margins and sentiment [8][9][10]. RBC's Ken Herbert maintained an Outperform rating and a $145 price target, citing upside potential, while estimating a roughly $15 million year-over-year Legacy Commercial Programs headwind and modeling about a 12% EBITDA margin [8][9][10]. Other previews focused on approximately $880 million revenue and $1.30 adjusted EPS [9][10]. Likely discussion points include strong aftermarket demand, new-parts distribution, component MRO, airframe MRO utilization, Trax recurring revenue, HAECO Americas integration, cross-selling, and the deliberate wind-down of Legacy Commercial Programs [11][8][9]. The options market priced an approximately ±10.9% one-day move as of September 25, 2026, compared to a ±9.7% average peak earnings-day move over 39 historical reports [12]. No reliable, clearly quantified Kalshi or Polymarket contract for AAR's earnings outcome was located [13][14]. Management is expected to characterize the quarter as an operating beat, reiterate confidence in low-teens FY2027 growth and improving margins, and dedicate significant time to explaining MRO Holdings' strategic fit, $75 million synergies, financing, leverage path, and expected February 2027 close [2][5][8][10][12]. Potential caveats include Legacy Commercial Programs drag, HAECO execution, integration/cost timing, financing dilution and leverage, regulatory closing risk, and broader aftermarket uncertainty [2][5][8][10][12].
Sources (14)
  1. 1AAR to announce first quarter fiscal year 2027 results on September 29, 2026 | AAR CORP.aarcorp.com
  2. 2AAR reports first quarter fiscal year 2027 resultsprnewswire.com
  3. 3AAR Q1FY27 Results: Adjusted EPS $1.49 beats estimate, sales up 24%scanx.trade
  4. 4AAR earnings beat by $0.18, revenue topped estimates By Investing.comuk.investing.com
  5. 5AAR accelerates its aftermarket platform strategy by agreeing to acquire a controlling interest in MRO Holdingsprnewswire.com
  6. 6AAR to acquire 65% stake in MRO Holdings for $4.0 billion By Investing.comng.investing.com
  7. 7AAR To Acquire 65% Of MRO Holdings | Aviation Weekaviationweek.com
  8. 8AAR Stock Has Lift-Off, But Legacy Programs Could Clip Margins - AAR (NYSE:AIR) - Benzingabenzinga.com
  9. 9Earnings Whispers | AAR's First Ex-Legacy Quarter Puts Its Ambitious FY27 Guidance to the Testbeta.earningswhispers.com
  10. 10AAR Corp Earnings Preview: What I Expect From The Upcoming Quarterly Results (NYSE:AIR) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
  11. 11Company Participants Chris Tillett - Vice President, Investor Relations John Holmes - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer Dylan Wolin - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer External Participants Scott Mikus - Melius Research Adam Samuelson - Jefferies Ken Herbert - RBC Capital Markets Louie DiPalma - William Blair Capital Partners Michael Leshock - Keybanc Capital Markets Alexandra Mandery - Truist Securitiesaarcorp.com
  12. 12AIR Earnings Date September 29: Implied Move ±10.9%earnings-watcher.com
  13. 13AIR Earnings - Aug/2026 AI Prediction - Intellectia AI™intellectia.ai
  14. 14Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Marketpolymarket.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 September 29, 2026: 61.0pp spike

Price increased from 4.0% to 65.0%

Outcome: Oklahoma City

What happened: Based on the provided research, there is no substantiation for the existence of a prediction market for AAR Corp.'s earnings call regarding the mention of "Oklahoma City" on September 29, 2026, nor for a 61.0 percentage point price spike [1]. While AAR Corp. had already announced Q1 FY27 results and scheduled a call for that date, and its Oklahoma City facility was operational, it was viewed as an existing execution proof point rather than a new catalyst [2]. Furthermore, no significant social media activity or breaking news related to AAR Corp. and "Oklahoma City" that would explain such a dramatic market movement was found [1]. Therefore, the described market movement cannot be explained, as its underlying existence and drivers are not supported by the available information.
Sources (2)
  1. 1AAR will announce our first quarter fiscal year 2027 results on September 29, 2026.linkedin.com
  2. 2AAR to announce first quarter fiscal year 2027 results on September 29, 2026 | AAR CORP.aarcorp.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Based on the provided page content, the exact conditions that trigger a YES or NO resolution for the "Iran / Middle East" market are not detailed. Similarly, no special settlement conditions are specified. The only key date mentioned is the maximum payout date of October 13, 2026.

Market Discussion

Pre-call market expectations for AAR Corp.'s FY2027 first-quarter results clustered around $880M-$881M revenue and $1.29-$1.30 adjusted EPS, with a "Whisper Number" of $1.36 EPS suggesting potential upside [1][2][3][4]. Investors were debating the company's ability to sustain growth, recover margins, and overcome various operational risks and analyst caution [3][5][6]. While management was likely to reiterate prior FY2027 growth drivers [7][8][9], AAR has announced updated guidance, including Q2 FY2027 ex-Legacy Commercial Programs (LCP) sales growth of 14%-16% and adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.0%-13.4%, and revised full-year FY2027 ex-LCP sales growth to low teens [10].

Sources (10)
  1. 1AAR Corp (AIR) Earnings Date & Reports & Earnings Newstradingkey.com
  2. 2AIR Whisper Number & Earnings Estimates - AAR Corp | The Whisper Numberthewhispernumber.com
  3. 3AAR Corp Earnings Preview: What I Expect From The Upcoming Quarterly Results (NYSE:AIR) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
  4. 4AIR Q1'26 Earnings: EPS estimate is 1.29 USD — TradingView Newstradingview.com
  5. 5Earnings Whispers | AAR's First Ex-Legacy Quarter Puts Its Ambitious FY27 Guidance to the Testbeta.earningswhispers.com
  6. 6AAR Corp Tumbles As Analysts Cool On Outlooktipranks.com
  7. 7AAR Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - AAR (NYSE:AIR) - Benzingabenzinga.com
  8. 8AAR Corp. (AIR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summaryearningscalls.dev
  9. 9AAR reports fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 results | AAR CORP.aarcorp.com
  10. 10AAR reports first quarter fiscal year 2027 resultsprnewswire.com

5. How will the MRO Holdings acquisition impact AAR Corp.'s FY2027 guidance and long-term leverage targets?

MRO Holdings Implied Enterprise ValueApproximately $4.0 billion [1][2][3]
Initial Net Leverage Post-AcquisitionApproximately 3.6x (including run-rate synergies) [1][3][4]
Targeted Annual Run-Rate Cost SynergiesApproximately $75 million [1][3][4]
AAR's FY2027 guidance currently excludes the MRO Holdings acquisition impact. The full-year outlook, issued on September 28, 2026, maintains low-double-digit to low-teens sales growth, excluding Legacy Commercial Programs [1][5][4]. Furthermore, the Q2 guidance indicates 14%–16% sales growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.0%–13.4% [1][5][4]. A formal guidance update is not expected until the transaction officially closes and integration planning is complete, with the closing anticipated in AAR's fiscal Q3 ending February 2027 [1][3][2].
The MRO Holdings acquisition will significantly increase AAR's near-term leverage. This acquisition involves a 65% controlling interest at an implied enterprise value of approximately $4.0 billion [1][3][2]. It will be funded by approximately $2.1 billion of new debt, along with equity and other financing [1][3][2]. Net leverage is projected to rise to about 3.6x at closing, including run-rate synergies [1][3][4]. However, AAR anticipates this will decline to roughly 3.0x within two years, partly due to AAR receiving 100% of MRO Holdings' excess cash flow during the initial two years of ownership [1][3][4]. Management's medium-term goal is to return to its historical 2.0x–2.5x leverage range [1][3][4].
MRO Holdings is projected to substantially enhance AAR's combined financial performance. The acquisition is expected to contribute approximately $1.0 billion in sales and $285 million in adjusted EBITDA [1][3][4]. This contribution would result in a combined adjusted EBITDA margin of about 16% before synergies, notably higher than AAR's standalone FY2026 pro forma margin of approximately 12.1% [1][3][4]. AAR also anticipates realizing approximately $75 million in annual run-rate cost synergies, with full benefits expected within three to four years post-closing [1][3][4]. Over that period, the target adjusted EBITDA margin is estimated to be about 19%–20% [1][3][4].
Sources (5)
  1. 1AAR accelerates its aftermarket platform strategy by agreeing to acquire a controlling interest in MRO Holdingsprnewswire.com
  2. 2Kirkland Represents AAR CORP. on Acquisition of a Controlling Interest in MRO Holdings | News | Kirkland & Ellis LLPkirkland.com
  3. 3AAR To Acquire 65% Of MRO Holdings | Aviation Weekaviationweek.com
  4. 4AAR agrees to acquire 65% of MRO Holdings for $1.8B | AIR Stock Newsstocktitan.net
  5. 5AAR reports first quarter fiscal year 2027 resultsprnewswire.com

6. Which specific business segments drove AAR Corp.'s Q1 FY2027 revenue and earnings beat over analyst consensus?

Parts Supply Sales Growth31% [1][2][3]
Parts Supply Operating Income$55.3 million [1][2][3]
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Growth34% to $117 million [1][4][3]
AAR Corp.'s Q1 FY2027 performance exceeded expectations driven by key segments. The company's revenue and earnings beat analyst consensus primarily due to its Parts Supply segment, which was the largest contributor to both growth and earnings. The Repair, Engineering & Software (RE&S) segment also significantly boosted revenue, while Government Solutions played a crucial role in enhancing earnings and margins [1][2][3].
Parts Supply and RE&S significantly boosted AAR's Q1 FY2027 revenue. The Parts Supply segment experienced a 31% increase in sales, fueled by 23% organic growth in new-parts Distribution across both commercial and government sectors. Its operating income climbed from $40.9 million to $55.3 million, solidifying its position as the leading profit driver [1][2][3]. RE&S sales also grew by 31%, attributed to strong performance in Airframe MRO, Component MRO, and software activities; however, its reported segment operating income decreased from $20.0 million to $16.0 million, indicating its primary role as a revenue contributor rather than a profit driver [1][2][3].
Government Solutions enhanced earnings and margins amid strong commercial demand. This segment reported a 4% increase in sales, propelled by Mobility Systems, and its operating income improved from $12.7 million to $19.1 million, making it an important contributor to earnings and margins despite more modest revenue growth [1][4][3]. The overall market demand was predominantly commercial, with commercial-customer sales rising 28% and government-customer sales increasing 14% [1][4][3]. Management noted that the adjusted operating-margin improvement, contributing to the consolidated 34% adjusted EBITDA growth to $117 million, was mainly due to the expansion of Parts Supply and increased profitability within Government Solutions [1][4][3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1AAR reports first quarter fiscal year 2027 resultsprnewswire.com
  2. 2AAR reports first quarter fiscal year 2027 results | lifestyle.thepointnews.comlifestyle.thepointnews.com
  3. 3AAR Corporation (via Public) / AAR reports first quarter fiscal year 2027 results (Form 8-K)publicnow.com
  4. 4AAR Q1FY27 Results: Adjusted EPS $1.49 beats estimate, sales up 24%scanx.trade

7. How does AAR Corp.'s projected post-acquisition debt leverage compare to MRO competitors like HAECO Americas?

Projected Net Leverage (AAR post MRO Holdings)approximately 3.6x (at closing) [1][2]
Net Leverage (AAR before MRO Holdings)1.81x (August 31, 2026) [3]
Target Leverage Range (AAR)2.0x–2.5x (over medium term) [1][2]
AAR's post-acquisition leverage will significantly increase, then decrease over time. AAR Corp. projects its net leverage to be approximately 3.6x at the closing of the MRO Holdings transaction, a figure that includes run-rate synergies [1][2]. This acquisition is structured with roughly $2.1 billion of new debt, $780 million in equity issued to sellers, and $230 million from a PIPE [1][2]. AAR anticipates that this leverage will decrease to around 3.0x within two years and eventually return to its stated 2.0x–2.5x target range over the medium term. During this period, the company intends to maintain a BB-category credit-rating profile with S&P and Moody’s [1][2].
AAR's MRO Holdings acquisition marks a substantial but temporary leverage increase. Immediately prior to the MRO Holdings transaction, AAR reported a net debt of $780.5 million and a net leverage of 1.81x as of August 31, 2026 [3]. HAECO Americas is not considered a standalone leverage comparison following the MRO Holdings deal, as AAR acquired it in November 2025 for approximately $78 million, funding this through its revolving facility [4][5][6][7]. The available sources do not provide a comparable standalone net-leverage ratio for HAECO Americas, therefore, the most defensible comparison is AAR's leverage before and after the larger MRO Holdings transaction, which represents a temporary increase from 1.81x to approximately 3.6x pro forma [1][2][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Bain Capital Private Equity LP (via Public) / AAR accelerates its aftermarket platform strategy by agreeing to acquire a controlling interest in MRO Holdingspubt.io
  2. 2AAR agrees to acquire 65% of MRO Holdings for $1.8B | AIR Stock Newsstocktitan.net
  3. 3AAR reports first quarter fiscal year 2027 resultsprnewswire.com
  4. 4EX-99.1sec.gov
  5. 5Tm2530099d1 ex99 1.htmsec.gov
  6. 6AAR acquires HAECO Americas and signs multi-year contracts with key customers, extending North American MRO leadership | AAR CORP.aarcorp.com
  7. 7AAR reports fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 results | AAR CORP.aarcorp.com
  8. 8AIR wH-cdlFzuk-J6DWEumSg4w Investor Event Transcript… - Equiblesequibles.com

8. What financial "headwinds" from the Legacy Commercial Programs wind-down did AAR management quantify for Q2 and full-year FY2027?

Q2 FY2027 Sales Growth Guidance14%–16% (excluding LCP and MRO acquisition impact) [1][2]
Q2 FY2027 Adjusted EBITDA Margin Guidance13.0%–13.4% (excluding LCP and MRO acquisition impact) [1][2]
Full-Year FY2027 Sales Growth OutlookLow-teens (excluding LCP) [1][2]
AAR’s Q2 FY2027 guidance excluded Legacy Commercial Programs. The company's September 28, 2026 guidance for the second quarter of fiscal year 2027 anticipated sales growth between 14% and 16%, alongside an adjusted EBITDA margin ranging from 13.0% to 13.4%. These projections explicitly excluded any potential impact from its Legacy Commercial Programs (LCP) and did not include the effects of the MRO Holdings acquisition [1][2].
Full-year FY2027 sales growth also excluded Legacy Commercial Programs. For the entirety of fiscal year 2027, AAR maintained its expectation for low-teens sales growth, similarly not incorporating the effects of LCP. Although management described the LCP wind-down as occurring ratably over approximately three to four years, the guidance did not provide a standalone dollar amount or percentage for the EBITDA headwind specifically attributable to LCP. Instead, its impact was indirectly quantified through the provided ex-LCP financial figures [1][2][3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1AAR reports first quarter fiscal year 2027 resultsprnewswire.com
  2. 2AAR CORP sales rise 24% to $918M in fiscal Q1 | AIR 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  3. 3Company Participants Chris Tillett - Vice President, Investor Relations John Holmes - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer Dylan Wolin - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer External Participants Scott Mikus - Melius Research Adam Samuelson - Jefferies Ken Herbert - RBC Capital Markets Louie DiPalma - William Blair Capital Partners Michael Leshock - Keybanc Capital Markets Alexandra Mandery - Truist Securitiesaarcorp.com
  4. 4AAR announces segment realignment and wind-down of Commercial Programs business | AAR CORP.aarcorp.com

9. What recent performance metrics for the Oklahoma City MRO facility support AAR's outlook on airframe MRO utilization?

OKC Expansion SizeOver 80,000 square feet [1][2][3][4]
OKC Expansion CompletionFY2026 [1][2][3][4]
OKC Paperless WorkflowsApproximately 60% [1][5][3][4]
The Oklahoma City facility's expansion significantly boosts airframe MRO capacity. AAR's Oklahoma City (OKC) facility completed an expansion in FY2026, adding over 80,000 square feet and three heavy-maintenance bays designed to service 737 aircraft [1][2][3][4]. This increased capacity was rapidly engaged, with the first aircraft inducted in March 2026 as part of a long-term commitment with Alaska Airlines [1][2][3][4][6][7][8]. This immediate utilization highlights the existing market demand for AAR's expanded airframe maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) capabilities [1][2][3][4][6][7][8].
Enhanced operational efficiency drives AAR's strong financial performance. Operational productivity at the OKC site further supports a positive MRO outlook. As detailed in the FY2026 annual report, approximately 60% of the legacy OKC hangar capacity has converted to paperless workflows, which improves overall efficiency [1][5][3][4]. These advancements, combined with the higher airframe MRO volumes stemming from the expansion, contributed to a 35% increase in sales for AAR's Repair, Engineering, and Software segment during Q4 FY2026 [9][3][4][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Nonstop.aarcorp.com
  2. 2AAR celebrates Airframe MRO expansion in Oklahoma City, prepares to induct additional Alaska Airlines aircraft | AAR CORP.aarcorp.com
  3. 3Company Participants Chris Tillett - Vice President, Investor Relations John Holmes - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer Dylan Wolin - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer External Participants Scott Mikus - Melius Research Adam Samuelson - Jefferies Ken Herbert - RBC Capital Markets Louie DiPalma - William Blair Capital Partners Michael Leshock - Keybanc Capital Markets Alexandra Mandery - Truist Securitiesaarcorp.com
  4. 4Q4 FY26 AAR Earnings Presentationaarcorp.com
  5. 5AAR Opens New Oklahoma City Hangar Amid Continued Expansion Drive | Aviation Weekaviationweek.com
  6. 6Q2 2026 AAR Corp Earnings Call on January 06, 2026 / 10:00PMaarcorp.com
  7. 7First Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Callaarcorp.com
  8. 8Q4 2025 AAR Corp Earnings Call on July 16, 2025 / 9:00PMaarcorp.com
  9. 9AAR reports fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 results | AAR CORP.aarcorp.com
  10. 10https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1750/000110465926085429/tm2620584d1_ex99-1.htmsec.gov

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

AAR's Q1 FY2027 results are scheduled for release after the NYSE close on September 29, 2026, with the earnings call at 7:00 a.m. Central Time on September 29 [1][2]. This timing reflects a rescheduling due to the MRO Holdings transaction [1]. The likely Q1 FY2027 setup indicates approximately $880 million revenue and roughly $1.29-$1.30 adjusted EPS, versus prior company guidance of 21%-23% sales growth excluding Legacy Commercial Programs and 12.25%-12.75% adjusted EBITDA margin [2][3][4][5]. Management's likely message is continued double-digit growth, supported by new-parts distribution, commercial aftermarket demand, software revenue, MRO capacity expansion, and acquisitions [2][6][7].
Key bullish catalysts include maintaining or raising FY2027 guidance, coupled with demonstrated core margin expansion and HAECO Americas integration progress [2][3][7][4]. The company previously framed full-year growth as low double-digits to low teens, expecting further margin expansion and improving cash flow [2][3][7][4]. A bullish scenario would materialize if revenue beats about $880 million, adjusted EPS beats about $1.30, core EBITDA margin is at or above guidance, and FY2027 guidance remains intact or higher [2][7][8].
Bearish risks involve a miss or deceleration in ex-Legacy growth, weaker Parts Supply trends, HAECO-related margin dilution, delayed MRO utilization, weak cash conversion, or a guidance cut [9][7][8]. These factors are particularly significant given recent stock underperformance and investor demand for proof that FY2027 targets are achievable [9][7][8]. A bearish outcome could follow if results miss, margins compress, integration/capacity costs rise, or guidance is reduced [2][7][8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: October 13, 2026
  • Closes: October 13, 2026
Sources (9)
  1. 1AAR to announce first quarter fiscal year 2027 results on September 29, 2026 | AAR CORP.aarcorp.com
  2. 2AAR reports first quarter fiscal year 2027 resultsprnewswire.com
  3. 3https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1750/000110465926085429/tm2620584d1_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
  4. 4AAR Corp Earnings Preview: What I Expect From The Upcoming Quarterly Results (NYSE:AIR) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
  5. 5AAR Corp (AIR) Set to Report Q1 Earnings on September 29, 2026gurufocus.com
  6. 6AAR reports fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 results | AAR CORP.aarcorp.com
  7. 7Q4 FY26 AAR Earnings Presentationaarcorp.com
  8. 8RBC Capital reiterates Outperform on AAR stock ahead of earnings | AllMind Newsallmind.ai
  9. 9Earnings Whispers | AAR's First Ex-Legacy Quarter Puts Its Ambitious FY27 Guidance to the Testbeta.earningswhispers.com

12. Related News

-68.0pp
Last updated: September 29, 2026, 12:39 UTC

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