Short Answer

Both the model and the market align on Glean's official IPO announcement occurring before June 1, 2027, seeing no actionable edge.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price action has been completely static. The implied probability of a Glean IPO announcement has held at a constant 9.0% across all recorded data points. There have been no price movements, spikes, or drops since the market opened. The trend is perfectly sideways, reflecting a lack of new information or trading interest that would otherwise shift the perceived odds.
The absence of price movement is directly explained by the trading volume, which is zero. No contracts have been traded. This indicates a total lack of market participation and conviction. The current price of 9.0% represents an opening level that has not been tested or validated by any trading activity. The market's stillness is consistent with reports as of late June 2026 that Glean has not filed an S-1 registration statement or publicly disclosed any timeline for a listing.
Given the zero-volume environment, technical concepts like support and resistance levels are not applicable. The 9.0% price is not a technical level forged by buying or selling pressure but simply the unchallenged standing price. The chart suggests market sentiment is dormant. The low probability indicates a baseline skepticism about an imminent IPO announcement, but the lack of trading volume shows no one has found the current odds compelling enough to place a trade. The market is effectively inactive.
  • Since last update (~13d): Model-led conviction for "Before Feb 1, 2027" rose +0.8pp, widening the edge on market's unchanged outlook.
  • Our model also gained +0.6pp for "Before Jan 1, 2027", compressing the edge despite market stability.
  • Headline model probability increased +0.4pp, causing a similar edge expansion with market flat.
  • Glean has not announced an IPO or filed an S-1 as of June 25, 2026.
  • Glean's management has not undertaken concrete IPO preparation steps.
  • Secondary market valuation for Glean has declined, reflecting tempered investor demand.
  • Typical S-1 filing to IPO announcement takes 4-6 months for tech companies.
  • An August 1, 2026, IPO announcement appears highly improbable without an S-1.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before Oct 1, 2026 14.0% 7.0% Glean lacked an S-1 filing by June 25, 2026, requiring a faster-than-typical S-1 to IPO timeframe.
Before Nov 1, 2026 12.0% 7.2% Glean has not filed an S-1 by June 25, 2026, making this a tight timeframe.
Before Dec 1, 2026 7.0% 7.4% Glean has not filed an S-1 as of late June 2026, with no concrete pre-listing steps.
Before Jan 1, 2027 10.0% 7.6% Glean has not filed an S-1 as of late June 2026, and investor demand is tempering.
Before Feb 1, 2027 0.0% 7.8% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.

Current Context

Glean has not announced an IPO or filed an S-1. As of June 25, 2026, Glean has not disclosed a specific IPO date, nor has the company filed an S-1 registration statement [1][2][3]. Glean remains a private entity with no publicly revealed timeline for a public listing [4][2][5].
Glean achieved strong revenue growth and a high valuation. The company reached $300 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in May 2026, a significant increase from $100 million just 15 months prior [6][7][8]. Glean's last reported valuation was approximately $7.2 billion, established during its Series F funding round in June 2025 [2][6][3]. Analysts widely consider Glean a strong candidate for a future IPO due to its rapid growth and market position [4][2][5].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Is Glean Going Public? IPO & Stock Info (2026) | IPOs.fyiipos.fyi
  2. 2Glean IPO 2026: Valuation, Competitors & How To Investblog.mexc.com
  3. 3Glean's Revenue Hits $300M as Cost-Cutting Pitch Drives Salesainewsupdates.net
  4. 4Insights: How To Invest In Glean Stock Pre-IPO - Forge Globalforgeglobal.com
  5. 5Glean - Investment Opportunities & Pre-IPO Valuations - Forge Globalforgeglobal.com
  6. 6Glean's top line crosses $300M as AI budget cutting becomes its major selling point | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com
  7. 7Glean Surpasses $300M ARR: Unrivaled Enterprise Context Fuels AI Adoption | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  8. 8Glean Hits $300M ARR as Enterprise AI Budgets Tighten — Enterprise DNAenterprisedna.co

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if Glean officially confirms an IPO before June 1, 2027, defined by the SEC declaring its Form S-1 effective, the IPO being priced, or a securities exchange assigning a ticker. A NO resolution occurs if none of these events happen by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM EDT, when the market closes. Outcomes are verified by major news agencies like The New York Times and Bloomberg, and the market will close early if the event occurs, with insider trading strictly prohibited.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before Oct 1, 2026 $0.11 $0.98 14%
Before Nov 1, 2026 $0.14 $0.95 12%
Before Dec 1, 2026 $0.15 $0.94 7%
Before Jan 1, 2027 $0.17 $0.92 10%
Before Feb 1, 2027 $0.20 $0.89 0%
Before Mar 1, 2027 $0.22 $0.87 19%
Before Apr 1, 2027 $0.24 $0.85 31%
Before May 1, 2027 $0.25 $0.84 23%
Before Jun 1, 2027 $0.26 $0.83 20%

Market Discussion

As of June 25, 2026, Glean has not officially announced or filed for an IPO and remains a private company [1][2][3][4]. Despite this, the company is viewed as a strong candidate for a future IPO, having reached $300 million in annual recurring revenue as of May 2026 and with a last reported valuation of approximately $7.2 billion in June 2025 [3][5][6]. However, prediction markets suggest a very low implied probability for a near-term IPO announcement, indicating minimal current market speculation [7].

Sources (7)
  1. 1Insights: How To Invest In Glean Stock Pre-IPO - Forge Globalforgeglobal.com
  2. 2Glean IPO 2026: $4.6B Valuation, 73/100 Score | TechStackIPOtechstackipo.com
  3. 3Glean IPO 2026: Valuation, Competitors & How To Investblog.mexc.com
  4. 4https://www.tipranks.com/news/glean-ai-pre-ipo-investing-company-overview-access-and-market-datatipranks.com
  5. 5Glean's top line crosses $300M as AI budget cutting becomes its major selling point | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com
  6. 6Glean's Revenue Hits $300M as Cost-Cutting Pitch Drives Salesainewsupdates.net
  7. 7When will Glean officially announce an IPO? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 64 Caution

Corporate action: boards, bankers, and counsel hold the answer before the announcement

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score62Caution
Trade quality20% of score68Caution
Trust score64Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Market integrity85
Outcome is hard to influenceStrong
Info fairness40
High Risk
Trade quality68
Order book is thinCaution
Market integrity
85Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on KXIPOGLEAN-27JAN01 carried 50% of its $8 tape (print is 15d old)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Corporate action: boards, bankers, and counsel hold the answer before the announcement

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Trade quality
68Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Liquidity unreadable

Move quality avg 68 across 1 legs

Before Oct 1, 2026–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 44h

No trades in the last 44h — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Before Dec 1, 2026–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 2d

No trades in the last 2d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Before Jan 1, 2027–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality68Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
68 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 7d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

5. What key financial milestones, beyond its current $300M ARR, are investors like Sequoia and Kleiner Perkins likely waiting for Glean to hit before committing to a 2026-2027 IPO?

Current ARR$300 million (May 28, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5])
ARR GrowthTripled in 15 months [1][2][3][4][5]
Expected IPO Window2026-2027 [6][7]
Glean achieved significant revenue growth, attracting major investor interest for an IPO. The company officially announced it reached $300 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) on May 28, 2026. This milestone represents a tripling of its ARR over the preceding 15 months [1][2][3][4][5]. This substantial growth has positioned Glean as a strong candidate for an initial public offering (IPO), drawing attention from prominent investors such as Sequoia and Kleiner Perkins [1].
Investors require specific financial transparency and operational readiness for Glean's IPO. For Glean to proceed with a potential 2026-2027 IPO, investors are seeking particular financial disclosures and 'public-company readiness' markers. Analysts note that a portion of Glean's $300 million ARR stems from consumption-based pricing, necessitating clearer disclosures of metrics like net dollar retention and long-term customer profitability [3][4]. Essential readiness markers include standardized financial reporting, PCAOB audit readiness, and demonstrated clear paths to profitability, specifically reducing net losses [8].
Market confidence and formal IPO steps are crucial for Glean's public debut. Beyond internal metrics, the re-opening of public market confidence is considered important, potentially through successful validation by other major AI-enterprise IPOs [8][9]. Although Glean is widely viewed as a top-tier IPO candidate, the company has not yet filed a public S-1, named any underwriters, or announced an official IPO date [6][7].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Glean Surpasses $300M ARR: Unrivaled Enterprise Context Fuels...businesswire.com
  2. 2Glean revenue, funding & news - Sacrasacra.com
  3. 3Glean's top line crosses $300M as AI budget-cutting becomes its major selling point | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com
  4. 4Glean Hits $300M ARR as Enterprise AI Budgets Tighten — Enterprise DNAenterprisedna.co
  5. 5Glean Surpasses $300M ARR, Revolutionizing Enterprise AIlinkedin.com
  6. 6Glean IPO 2026: $4.6B Valuation, 73/100 Score | TechStackIPOtechstackipo.com
  7. 7Glean IPO 2026: Valuation, Competitors & How To Investblog.mexc.com
  8. 8IPO Readiness for AI Company | Case Study - Cherry Bekaertcbh.com
  9. 9Cerebras IPO 2026: $8.1B Valuation, $136.4M Revenue, and the CFIUS Overhang Resolvedvalueaddvc.com

6. What concrete steps, such as hiring an IPO-experienced CFO or filing a confidential S-1 with the SEC, have been taken by Glean's management since mid-2026 to prepare for a public listing?

Public Listing Steps TakenNone (as of June 25, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5]
Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR)$300 million (as of May 2026) [1][6][7][8]
Company Valuation~$7.2 billion [1][6][7][8]
Glean has not taken publicly verified steps toward a public listing. As of June 25, 2026, Glean's management has not undertaken any concrete, publicly confirmed actions to prepare for an initial public offering (IPO) [1][2][3][4][5]. Key pre-IPO measures, such as filing a confidential S-1 with the SEC, hiring a chief financial officer (CFO) with IPO experience, or formally appointing investment bank underwriters, have not been observed [1][2][3][4][5]. Consequently, Glean remains a privately held company without an official IPO timeline or announcement [1][6][7][8].
Significant business growth does not indicate immediate public listing preparations. While Glean has achieved substantial business milestones, including reaching over $300 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) as of May 2026 and maintaining a valuation of approximately $7.2 billion, these are considered indicators of general business expansion rather than direct pre-IPO activities [1][6][7][8]. Furthermore, existing secondary market activity, such as trading Glean shares on platforms like Hiive for accredited investors, signifies private market liquidity rather than an active transition to a public listing [7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Glean IPO 2026: Valuation, Competitors & How To Investblog.mexc.com
  2. 2Insights: How To Invest In Glean Stock Pre-IPO - Forge Globalforgeglobal.com
  3. 3Glean IPO 2026: $4.6B Valuation, 73/100 Score | TechStackIPOtechstackipo.com
  4. 4Glean's top line crosses $300M as AI budget cutting becomes its major selling point | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com
  5. 5Glean hits 300 million ARR by selling AI budget cuts - Startup Fortunestartupfortune.com
  6. 6Glean - Investment Opportunities & Pre-IPO Valuations - Forge Globalforgeglobal.com
  7. 7https://www.tipranks.com/news/glean-ai-pre-ipo-investing-company-overview-access-and-market-datatipranks.com
  8. 8https://finance.biggo.com/news/qwucaZ4B6tLPsnrZ9TnBfinance.biggo.com

7. How do Glean's key growth and valuation metrics compare to those of Databricks and Scale AI, two other major AI companies also anticipated to IPO?

Glean ARR$300 million as of June 2026 [1][2]
Glean Valuation$7.2 billion (June 2025) [1][3][2]
Databricks Target Valuation$165–175 billion (mid-2026) [4]
Glean shows strong growth but lacks an official IPO date. As of June 2026, Glean's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) has reached $300 million, representing a three-fold increase in 15 months [1][2]. The company's valuation was last set at $7.2 billion in June 2025 [1][3][2]. An official IPO date for Glean has not been announced as of June 25, 2026 [5].
Databricks targets a high valuation, delaying IPO plans. Databricks is aiming for a valuation of $165–175 billion in mid-2026, having recently raised capital at a $134 billion valuation in early 2026 [6][4]. CEO Ali Ghodsi has stated that 2026 is an unfavorable year for a public offering, making a 2027 IPO more likely [7]. As of June 25, 2026, there is no official IPO date for Databricks, and growth metrics such as ARR or revenue were not provided in the available facts [5].
Scale AI maintains its valuation, facing IPO complexities. Scale AI's valuation remains at $29 billion, a figure established in June 2025 [8][9][5]. A public offering for Scale AI is considered structurally complex due to its concentrated ownership and dependence on government and Meta-related contracts [5]. As of June 25, 2026, Scale AI does not have an official IPO date, and specific growth metrics like ARR or revenue were not available in the provided information [5].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Glean's top line crosses $300M as AI budget-cutting becomes its major selling point | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com
  2. 2Glean Surpasses $300M ARR: Unrivaled Enterprise Context Fuels AI Adoption | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  3. 3Glean revenue, funding & news - Sacrasacra.com
  4. 4Databricks in talks to raise at up to $175bn valuationthenextweb.com
  5. 5Scale AI Valuation (2026): ~$29B from the Meta Deal — and Frozen Since | Teahoseteahose.com
  6. 6Databricks opts for private funding over IPO amid market lullcryptobriefing.com
  7. 7Databricks CEO: 2026 is "a terrible year to go public"thenextweb.com
  8. 8Insights: How To Invest In Scale AI Stock Pre-IPO - Forge Globalforgeglobal.com
  9. 9Scale AI Stock: $29B Valuation — Is It a Buy? | TSG Investtsginvest.com

8. What is the typical timeframe from a confidential S-1 filing to an official IPO announcement for high-growth tech companies, based on data from 2023-2026 IPOs?

Typical timeframe S-1 to IPO announcement4 to 6 months [1][2]
Range for S-1 to IPO announcement3 to 12 months [1][2]
Company typeHigh-growth tech companies [1][2]
High-growth tech companies typically take months from S-1 to IPO announcement. For high-growth technology companies, the typical timeframe to progress from a confidential S-1 filing to an official Initial Public Offering (IPO) announcement generally spans 4 to 6 months [1][2]. This duration reflects the common period for firms navigating the initial phases of going public.
IPO timelines vary significantly due to market and company factors. While a general range exists, this transition period can vary considerably, with estimates extending from 3 to 12 months. Several critical factors influence this duration, including the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) review cycles, prevailing market conditions, and the specific company's overall preparedness for the intricate IPO process [1][2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1From S-1 Filing to IPO: How Many Are Filed, the Full Timeline, and...filingtrack.com
  2. 2Anthropic Has Filed Its Confidential S-1. How Long Until the IPO?cabotwealth.com

9. How has Glean's valuation trended on secondary markets like Forge Global since its last funding round, and what does this indicate about private investor demand?

Secondary Market Share Price$44–$57 per share (June 2026) [1][2][3][4]
Last Primary Valuation$7.2B post-money (June 2025) [1][2][3][4]
Estimated ARR$200M–$300M (late 2025/early 2026) [2][5]
Glean's secondary market valuation has declined, reflecting tempered investor demand. Glean's valuation on secondary markets has declined since its most recent funding round. Secondary market price estimates for Glean shares are approximately $44–$57 per share by June 2026, marking a roughly 15% decrease from its late 2025 peaks near $61 [1][2][3][4]. This trend suggests a moderation in private investor demand and a more cautious outlook regarding the potential for further valuation increases, as evidenced by the falling share prices on secondary markets [2][5].
Despite significant primary funding, secondary markets show caution on future growth. Glean secured its last primary funding through a Series F round in June 2025, raising $150 million at a post-money valuation of $7.2 billion [1][2][3][4]. This high private valuation was supported by rapid revenue growth, with Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) projected to reach an estimated $200 million–$300 million by late 2025 or early 2026. However, the observed volatility in secondary markets indicates investor caution regarding the company's future valuation expansion [2][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Invest and Sell Glean Stock - Forge Globalforgeglobal.com
  2. 2Insights: How To Invest In Glean Stock Pre-IPO - Forge Globalforgeglobal.com
  3. 3Glean (GLEA.PVT) Valuation, History & News - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
  4. 4Glean Valuation, Share Price Estimates & Funding History | Public.compublic.com
  5. 5Glean revenue, funding & news | Sacrasacra.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

As of 2026-06-25, Glean has not officially announced an IPO nor filed a public S-1 document, remaining a private company without a specific timeline for a public offering [1][2][3][4]. CEO Arvind Jain, who previously took Rubrik public, is viewed as not opposed to an IPO; however, he has indicated a focus on growth, and the company has not felt compelled to rush a public listing [5][6].
The company's financial strength may influence its timeline. Glean reported reaching $300 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) as of May 2026 [7]. It was last valued at approximately $7.2 billion following its Series F funding round in June 2025 [7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 08, 2026
  • Closes: June 01, 2027
Sources (7)
  1. 1Glean IPO 2026: Valuation, Competitors & How To Investblog.mexc.com
  2. 2Insights: How To Invest In Glean Stock Pre-IPO - Forge Globalforgeglobal.com
  3. 3https://www.tipranks.com/news/glean-ai-pre-ipo-investing-company-overview-access-and-market-datatipranks.com
  4. 4https://finance.biggo.com/news/qwucaZ4B6tLPsnrZ9TnBfinance.biggo.com
  5. 5Glean Stock: Gleaning Clues About a Potential IPOaccessipos.com
  6. 6Pre-IPO Briefing: Glean Transcriptwithvincent.com
  7. 7Glean's top line crosses $300M as AI budget cutting becomes its major selling point | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 2 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 2 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXIPOGLEAN-26MAY01: NO (May 01, 2026)
  • KXIPOGLEAN-26JUN01: NO (Jun 01, 2026)