Short Answer

Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Peacock app downloads in August will be Above 104, with only minor residual uncertainty.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market displays a sideways trend, opening at 66.0% and trading at 62.0% as of the latest data, but with extreme intra-period volatility. The price has fluctuated within a wide 75-point range, from a low of 4.0% to a high of 79.0%. The most significant price action occurred over a three-day period. On August 22, the price dropped from 66.0% to 58.0%. This was followed by a collapse to 4.0% on August 23 and a subsequent spike to 62.0% on August 24. This rapid whipsaw suggests a highly unstable trading environment.

The primary drivers for this volatility do not appear to be fundamental. Research indicates the extreme price movements on August 23 and August 24 were not linked to any verifiable external news or announcements. The price collapse and subsequent recovery happened in an information vacuum. Similarly, the initial 8.0 percentage point drop on August 22 is difficult to attribute, with related research suggesting a drop of a similar magnitude on that date occurred in an entirely different market. Trading volume is concentrated, with 921.52 contracts traded on August 22, representing over a third of the total market volume. The lack of volume on subsequent days points to an illiquid market where price levels can be moved by isolated, large trades rather than broad conviction.

Market sentiment appears to have reverted to its baseline after a brief, sharp panic. The 60-70% range has acted as a general equilibrium point, with the 4.0% low on August 23 serving as a temporary, unsupported floor. The immediate and strong recovery from that low suggests the drop was viewed as an anomaly or an overreaction. The current price of 62.0%, near the opening level, indicates the market has discounted the brief period of extreme volatility and is again pricing based on longer-term fundamentals, such as Peacock's recent profitability and subscriber growth.

Downloads likely exceed 108 million, driven by Q2 profit and subscriber growth.
The 112 million download threshold is challenged by late-August Premier League timing.
Highest downloads face headwinds from August price increases and Q3 content absence.

Current Context

Peacock achieved Q2 2026 profitability, driven by major sports and content. In Q2 2026, Peacock reported its first quarterly profit, reaching $189 million in adjusted EBITDA ^[1]^[2]^[3]. The platform added 2 million paid subscribers, bringing its total to 48 million ^[4]^[3]. This subscriber growth was attributed to major live events and sports programming, including the NBA Playoffs and FIFA World Cup, alongside the reality series Love Island USA ^[3]. While executives project improved annual profitability, they caution that quarterly earnings will likely fluctuate due to content spending and the timing of significant live sports events ^[2]^[5]^[6]^[7].

August 2026 saw a price hike and varied app download estimates. As of August 18, 2026, Peacock raised subscription prices across all tiers for new and returning users, marking its fourth annual price increase in four years ^[8]^[5]^[6]. App download estimates for August 2026 show monthly figures ranging from approximately 900,000 to 2 million combined ^[9]^[10]^[11]^[12]^[13]. These aggregate download estimates vary by tracker, subject to platform-specific tracking methodologies ^[9]^[10]^[11]^[12]^[13].

Peacock is evolving towards a bundled entertainment membership platform. Peacock is transitioning from a streaming-only service to an entertainment membership platform ^[14]^[15]. Plans include bundling the service with YouTube Premium in early 2027 to expand its subscriber reach ^[14]^[15]. Separately, Comcast Corporation announced its intent in July 2026 to split NBCUniversal and Sky into two distinct companies ^[3].

Sources (15)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 24, 2026: 58.0pp spike

Price increased from 4.0% to 62.0%

Outcome: Above 112

What happened: The provided research indicates there is no verifiable evidence of a 58.0 percentage point spike in Peacock app downloads on August 24, 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]. While Peacock experienced a download surge in February 2026 due to the Winter Olympics, this predates the specified event ^[5]. Although other apps like FOMO and Claude AI saw activity around August 2026 ^[6]^[7], there is no social media activity or traditional news identified that corresponds to a 58.0pp download increase for Peacock on August 24, 2026. Therefore, based on the available information, social media was irrelevant, as the described prediction market price movement appears unsubstantiated by the data for Peacock.

📉 August 23, 2026: 52.0pp drop

Price decreased from 56.0% to 4.0%

Outcome: Above 112

What happened: No verifiable external cause, such as social media activity, traditional news, or official announcements, appears to be the primary driver of a 52.0 percentage point drop in the "Peacock App Downloads in August" prediction market on August 23, 2026 ^[1]^[8]. Available data indicates stable or seasonal trends for Peacock app downloads during August 2026, contradicting a significant downturn ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[5]. Therefore, no specific social media posts from key figures or viral narratives were identified that would lead, coincide with, or lag such a price movement ^[8]^[9]^[10]^[11]^[12]. Based on the lack of corroborating evidence for an external catalyst, social media was irrelevant to this reported prediction market movement.

📉 August 22, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 66.0% to 57.0%

Outcome: Above 112

What happened: The reported 9.0 percentage point (pp) drop on August 22, 2026, occurred in a prediction market for maximum temperature, not Peacock app downloads ^[13]. Available data for August 2026 shows no evidence of a 9.0pp drop in Peacock app downloads, with the app consistently performing as a top-grossing entertainment service ^[1]^[2]^[8]. Given that the specified price movement did not occur in the "Peacock App Downloads in August" market, social media activity was irrelevant as a primary driver for this market.

Sources (13)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A 'YES' resolution for a contract (e.g., "Above 112") triggers if Peacock App Downloads in August exceed the specified numerical threshold. Conversely, a 'NO' resolution occurs if the downloads are at or below that threshold. The market tracks app download data for August, and the final maximum payout date is September 6, 2026. No other special settlement conditions are detailed.

Market Discussion

Estimates for Peacock's August 2026 app downloads vary significantly by platform and source, ranging from approximately 900,000 to 2.0 million monthly downloads ^[1]. This occurs as the service, which reached 48 million paid subscribers by August 2026 and achieved Q2 2026 profitability, appears to be transitioning its strategy from rapid growth to disciplined retention and monetization ^[2]. A subscription price increase was implemented on August 18, 2026, which may influence download trends alongside concerns regarding technical stability and the durability of ad revenue following Q2 sports events ^[3].

Sources (3)

5. Trader Dashboard

Trust profile

Event quality3

Poor

6. What major content releases or live sports events on Peacock are scheduled for August 2026 that could influence new subscriptions?

Premier League Season Start	August 21, 2026 ^[1]^[2]
You, Me & Tuscany Premiere	August 7 ^[3]
The Undeclared War Season 2	August 27 ^[4]^[5]

Live sports programming significantly influenced new Peacock subscriptions in August 2026. The 2026-2027 Premier League season commenced on August 21, with Peacock exclusively streaming live matches ^[1]^[2]. This kickoff was specifically expected to drive new subscriptions in late August. Additionally, Peacock maintained its exclusive "Game of the Day" MLB coverage throughout August, which included multiple games each week and Sunday Night Baseball matchups ^[6].

New entertainment releases also launched, drawing market prediction interest. For non-sports entertainment, August 2026 introduced the romantic comedy 'You, Me & Tuscany' on August 7 and the second season of the cyber-thriller 'The Undeclared War' on August 27 ^[3]^[4]^[5]. These significant content releases, alongside the live sports events, were identified as potential factors influencing new subscriptions and app downloads during the month ^[1]^[2]^[7]^[8]^[9]. The potential impact of these launches on app downloads was a subject of active trading on prediction markets on Kalshi as of August 21, 2026 ^[7]^[8]^[9].

Sources (9)

7. How do third-party app analytics firms like Sensor Tower and Appfigures estimate Peacock's download velocity in the first half of August 2026?

Estimation Method	Proprietary machine learning models ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]
Accuracy Measurement	Median Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) ^[5]^[4]
Estimated Error Rate Range	5% to 25% ^[5]^[4]

Third-party analytics firms estimate app downloads using proprietary machine learning models. These models are developed using extensive datasets, which include data from proprietary panels of millions of opted-in users and actual download and revenue figures from consenting partners ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. To generate estimates for applications that do not directly share their data, these firms calibrate their models by observing publicly available signals, such as app store category rankings, review counts, and download milestones ^[5]^[3]^[4].

Estimates for specific apps leverage aggregate performance trends and refine user data. For a particular application like Peacock, estimates for the first half of August 2026 would be derived from aggregate store-level performance trends observed in individual countries ^[6]^[7]^[4]. These calculations are performed on a per-user basis, meticulously filtering out re-installs or downloads across multiple devices to maintain accuracy ^[6]^[7]^[4]. The accuracy of these estimates is typically assessed using Median Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), with vendors commonly reporting error rates that span from 5% in optimal scenarios to 25% in less favorable ones ^[5]^[4].

Sources (7)

8. How do Peacock's August 2026 subscription prices and content library compare to those of direct competitors like Paramount+ and Max?

Peacock Monthly Price Range (as of Aug 2026)	$8.99 to $19.99 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]
Paramount+ Monthly Price Range (as of Aug 2026)	$8.99 to $13.99 ^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]
Max Monthly Price Range (as of Aug 2026)	$10.99 to $22.99 ^[10]^[11]^[12]^[13]^[14]

Peacock increased its monthly subscription prices across all tiers in August 2026. Effective August 18, 2026, the updated monthly pricing structure for Peacock includes the Select tier at $8.99, Premium at $12.99, and Premium Plus at $19.99 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5].

Peacock's updated pricing compares closely with competitors' offerings. As of August 2026, Paramount+ provides two monthly subscription tiers: Essential for $8.99 and Premium with SHOWTIME for $13.99 ^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]. During the same period, Max offers three monthly subscription options: Basic with Ads for $10.99, Standard Ad-Free for $18.49, and Premium Ad-Free for $22.99 ^[10]^[11]^[12]^[13]^[14].

Content library comparisons for these streaming services are currently unavailable. The available research does not contain the necessary information to compare the content libraries of Peacock, Paramount+, and Max.

Sources (14)

9. What are the known methodological differences between app download trackers like data.ai and Sensor Tower, and how have their past estimates for Peacock varied?

Sensor Tower Data.ai Merger	2024 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]
Peacock First Month Downloads	Nearly 3 million (Sensor Tower estimate) ^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]
App Download Tracking Method	Hybrid (app store data + proprietary consumer panels) ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]

App download trackers employ hybrid methodologies for estimating downloads. Both Sensor Tower and data.ai (formerly App Annie) historically used a combination of app store rank and performance data with proprietary consumer panels to estimate app download numbers ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. In 2024, Sensor Tower acquired data.ai, and has since integrated their respective consumer panels and modeling pipelines to create a unified data product ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4].

Industry practices for data aggregators can cause discrepancies. General industry practice for data aggregators involves proprietary sampling, statistical modeling, and third-party data feeds. This can lead to discrepancies between different providers due to variations in data sources, processing methods, and update frequencies ^[9]^[10]^[11]^[12]. However, the provided research does not contain specific information regarding the detailed methodological differences between data.ai and Sensor Tower in tracking app downloads prior to their merger ^[9]^[10]^[11]^[12].

Sensor Tower publicly estimated Peacock’s initial download performance. For Peacock specifically, Sensor Tower has provided public estimates for its launch, reporting nearly 3 million downloads in its first month, which have served as industry benchmarks ^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]. While third-party modeling estimates have historically shown variances when compared to official numbers ^[13], the research does not detail historical discrepancies in estimates for Peacock between data.ai and Sensor Tower ^[12]^[9]^[10].

Sources (13)

10. According to Comcast's Q2 2026 earnings call, what is the stated strategy regarding Peacock's balance between subscriber growth and profitability?

Q2 2026 Added Subscribers	2 million paid subscribers (Q2 2026) ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]
Total Paid Subscribers	48 million paid subscribers ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]
Q2 2026 EBITDA	$189 million (nearly $200 million of profits) ^[1]^[2]^[7]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]

According to Comcast's Q2 2026 earnings call, Peacock's stated strategy prioritizes scaled, sustainable subscriber growth while simultaneously building toward profitability, rather than optimizing for profitability in isolation ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]. Management aims to create value across Comcast’s broader media assets, ensuring that Peacock’s development contributes holistically, not solely by maximizing its standalone profit ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]. This approach is underpinned by a dual-revenue model combining distribution and advertising, which intrinsically links subscriber growth with monetization efforts ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6].

Peacock reported first quarterly profit and strong subscriber growth in Q2 2026. In Q2 2026, Peacock added 2 million paid subscribers, bringing its total to 48 million, primarily driven by events like the NBA Playoffs, FIFA World Cup, and Love Island USA ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]. The platform also achieved its first quarterly profitability in Q2 2026, reporting $189 million in EBITDA ^[1]^[2]^[7]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]. While executives noted that profitability will likely fluctuate quarter-to-quarter due to content and sports scheduling, they expect annual EBITDA to continue improving, fueled by a growing subscriber base and enhanced monetization efforts ^[1]^[2]^[7]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6].

Sources (7)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Peacock recorded its first-ever quarterly profit in Q2 2026, reporting $189 million in adjusted EBITDA and 48 million total paid subscribers ^[1]^[2]^[3]. This profitability reflects a $290 million year-over-year improvement ^[3]. Bullish catalysts include high ad-revenue per subscriber growth, which rose 43% to $4.98 a month, and strategic pivots toward membership programs and "great rebundling" deals, such as the YouTube Premium partnership ^[4]^[1]^[5]^[2]^[6]^[7]. Engagement is also driven by coverage of major live sports and entertainment events, including the NBA Playoffs, FIFA World Cup, and Love Island USA ^[3]. Additionally, Comcast announced its intent to separate NBCUniversal and Sky assets into focused companies, a major structural change serving as a key financial catalyst ^[3].

Bearish risks center on the volatility of quarterly profitability, which relies heavily on cyclical sports calendars ^[1]^[5]^[8]^[2]. The absence of massive tentpole events in Q3/Q4 2026, compared to Q2, could impact future financial performance ^[1]^[5]^[8]^[2]. Estimates for Peacock's monthly app downloads vary, generally tracking between 900,000 and 2 million per month on major platforms, with cumulative Android installs exceeding 62 million ^[9]^[10]^[11].

Key upcoming timeline milestones include a YouTube Premium bundle rollout planned for early 2027 ^[6]^[7]^[12]. There is also a continued focus on transitioning the service from a standalone streaming platform into a broader membership-based ecosystem ^[6]^[7]^[12].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Expiration: September 14, 2026
Closes: September 07, 2026

Sources (12)

12. Keep Exploring

IPO Tracker Companies preparing to go public, with the market's view on timing. More App Downloads markets See more app downloads setups in the same theme. Browse all Financials markets Keep exploring adjacent financials markets. Track this in the app Open the live app flow and keep following this market in real time.

13. Related News

+58.0pp Published: August 24, 2026

Last updated: August 24, 2026, 12:36 UTC

Late-August Content Slate Sends Peacock Download Bets Soaring

Expectations for a final-week surge in app downloads, driven by a slate of expiring blockbuster movies and shows, fueled a massive rally on Monday in markets forecasting Peacock's August performance. ...

Peacock App Downloads in August

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

📈 August 24, 2026: 58.0pp spike

📉 August 23, 2026: 52.0pp drop

📉 August 22, 2026: 9.0pp drop

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Market Discussion

5. Trader Dashboard

6. What major content releases or live sports events on Peacock are scheduled for August 2026 that could influence new subscriptions?

7. How do third-party app analytics firms like Sensor Tower and Appfigures estimate Peacock's download velocity in the first half of August 2026?

8. How do Peacock's August 2026 subscription prices and content library compare to those of direct competitors like Paramount+ and Max?

9. What are the known methodological differences between app download trackers like data.ai and Sensor Tower, and how have their past estimates for Peacock varied?

10. According to Comcast's Q2 2026 earnings call, what is the stated strategy regarding Peacock's balance between subscriber growth and profitability?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

13. Related News

Late-August Content Slate Sends Peacock Download Bets Soaring

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

📈 August 24, 2026: 58.0pp spike

📉 August 23, 2026: 52.0pp drop

📉 August 22, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Contract Snapshot

Market Discussion

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

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Late-August Content Slate Sends Peacock Download Bets Soaring

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