Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Intuit (INTU) to beat quarterly earnings, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market shows a sharp upward revision in the probability of an Intuit earnings beat. The contract opened at a 62.5% probability on August 12, 2026, and experienced a single, significant movement that day, spiking 29.5 percentage points to 92.0%. The price has since held steady at this new level. The provided context indicates this price spike was not driven by any specific Intuit catalyst, but rather by unrelated market events or general analysis. The price points of 62.5% and 92.0% act as the effective floor and ceiling for the market's brief history.
The most critical feature of this market is the complete absence of trading volume. With zero contracts traded, the price action does not reflect any genuine market activity or capital-weighted conviction. The initial price and the subsequent jump to 92.0% are likely the result of an automated market maker's pricing or the actions of the market creator, rather than a consensus formed by buyers and sellers. While the 92.0% price level implies very high confidence in an earnings beat, the lack of any participation means this price cannot be interpreted as a reliable signal of broad market sentiment.
  • Yes: Intuit's Q4 2026 estimates project significant earnings and revenue.
  • Yes: The trader 'whisper number' for EPS is above Wall Street consensus.

Current Context

Intuit (INTU) will report Q4 and full-year fiscal 2026 results. The company is scheduled to announce its financial results on August 25, 2026, after the market closes [1]. As of August 13, 2026, Intuit has not yet released earnings for the fiscal quarter ended July 31, 2026 [2][3][4]. In the previous fiscal year, Intuit announced its results for the quarter ended July 31, 2025, on August 21, 2025 [4]. Analysts' consensus estimates for Q4 2026 project earnings between $3.54 and $3.66 EPS, with revenue approximately $4.3 billion [5][6][7][8].
Market sentiment for Intuit's Q4 earnings is mixed. A "whisper number" of $3.76 EPS, representing trader expectation, is higher than the analyst consensus [8]. However, recent analyst coverage has included several downgrades, citing concerns over growth and the company's ability to monetize AI initiatives [8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Intuit to Announce Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Fiscal 2026 Results on Aug. 25; Investor Day Set for Sep. 17:: Intuit Inc. (INTU)investors.intuit.com
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3intu-20260520sec.gov
  4. 4intu-20250821sec.gov
  5. 5Intuit Inc. (INTU) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Financeca.finance.yahoo.com
  6. 6INTU Q4 2026 earnings estimate — revenue & EPStickerleague.com
  7. 7INTUIT INC (INTU) Forecast, Price Target & Analyst Ratingschartmill.com
  8. 8INTU Whisper Number & Earnings Estimates - Intuit Inc | The Whisper Numberthewhispernumber.com
  9. 9Dear Intuit Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for August 25barchart.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 12, 2026: 29.5pp spike

Price increased from 62.5% to 92.0%

Outcome: Yes

What happened: The provided research indicates that the 29.5 percentage point figure cited for the price movement does not refer to an Intuit earnings catalyst, but rather to unrelated market events or general financial analysis [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Therefore, based on the available information, the premise of a 29.5 percentage point spike in the "Will Intuit (INTU) beat quarterly earnings?" prediction market on August 12, 2026, is not supported, making it impossible to identify a primary driver. No specific social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors around this date were found to explain such a movement pertaining to Intuit's earnings. Consequently, social media's role in this purported movement is indeterminate due to the lack of evidence for the movement itself.
Sources (6)
  1. 1Odds surge for US to announce end of Iranian blockade, driven by Augglobal-political-spotlight.com
  2. 2Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?ainvest.com
  3. 3INTU · F-Score 7/9 · Health 61/100 · Insider Trades & Quant Analysis | fffinstill | fffinstillfffinstill.com
  4. 4HQY · F-Score 8/9 · Health 53/100 · Insider Trades & Quant Analysis | fffinstill | fffinstillfffinstill.com
  5. 5INCY Financial Statements — Rev $5.4B (Tue Mar) — fffinstillfffinstill.com
  6. 6CXM · F-Score 6/9 · Health 47/100 · Insider Trades & Quant Analysis | fffinstill | fffinstillfffinstill.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Intuit reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $3.59 for the relevant quarter, primarily using official company earnings documents. It resolves to "No" if the non-GAAP EPS is $3.59 or less. A "No" resolution also occurs if earnings are not released within 45 calendar days of the estimated August 25, 2026 date, or if the primary non-GAAP figures are unavailable within 96 hours of the announcement, in which case fallback sources like SeekingAlpha or GAAP EPS will be considered. All figures are rounded to the nearest cent, and subsequent restatements typically do not qualify for resolution.

Market Discussion

Intuit (INTU) is scheduled to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 financial results on August 25, 2026, with analyst consensus estimating EPS between $3.54 and $3.65, and revenue around $4.3 billion [1]. Investor sentiment is mixed; some analysts suggest the stock is undervalued following a recent decline, potentially leading to an earnings beat driven by cost-cutting and AI-focused restructuring [2]. However, others express caution due to concerns about AI monetization, uncertainty in the TurboTax business, and recent workforce reductions [2].

Sources (2)
  1. 1Intuit to Announce Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Fiscal 2026 Results on Aug. 25; Investor Day Set for Sep. 17:: Intuit Inc. (INTU)investors.intuit.com
  2. 2Intuit's Selloff Creates A Better Setup Heading Into Q4 Earnings (NASDAQ:INTU) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com

5. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Aug 13, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality4
Poor
Liquidity
4

1 contract

Yes4
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Yes—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 1.91 log-odds, 29.0c, vol 0

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

1 contract

Yes95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 13, 2026

6. How do Q4 2026 consensus estimates for Intuit stack up against the company's actual earnings performance over the previous four quarters?

Fiscal Q4 2026 Announcement DateAugust 25, 2026 [1][2]
Q4 FY26 EPS Estimate$3.59 [3][2]
Q4 FY26 Revenue Estimate$4.27 billion to $4.3 billion [3][2]
Intuit's Q4 2026 estimates project significant earnings and revenue. Intuit is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 2026 financial results on August 25, 2026 [1][2]. For this upcoming quarter, the consensus analyst estimate for Intuit's earnings per share (EPS) is $3.59. Analysts also project the consensus revenue estimate to be between approximately $4.27 billion and $4.3 billion for the same period [3][2].
Intuit consistently surpassed earnings estimates in previous quarters. The company has demonstrated a strong track record by outperforming analyst EPS estimates in each of its four most recent quarters: Q3 FY26, Q2 FY26, Q1 FY26, and Q4 FY25 [4][5]. However, the available information does not include specific actual earnings figures or prior analyst estimates for these past quarters [4][5]. Consequently, a detailed numerical comparison of the Q4 2026 consensus estimates against precise actual earnings performance from previous quarters cannot be fully established with the provided data [4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Intuit to Announce Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Fiscal 2026 Results on Aug. 25; Investor Day Set for Sep. 17:: Intuit Inc. (INTU)investors.intuit.com
  2. 2Intuit (INTU) Increases Despite Market Slip: Here's What You Need to Knowfinance.yahoo.com
  3. 3INTU Q4 2026 earnings estimate — revenue & EPStickerleague.com
  4. 4Intuit (INTU) Earnings Trends: EPS & Revenue History | 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
  5. 5Intuit (INTU) Earnings Report Q3 2026 | Beat, EPS & Revenue | 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com

7. Beyond the headline numbers, what forward-looking guidance for FY2027 could catalyze a significant stock price move after the August 25 announcement?

Expected FY2027 Revenue Growth10-11% (management expectation) [1]
Workforce Reduction17% (announced earlier in 2026) [2]
AI Platform LaunchAugust 2026 [1]
Clear FY2027 guidance, especially for AI initiatives, could significantly move stock. The August 25 announcement is expected to trigger a significant stock price change, largely dependent on specific forward-looking guidance for fiscal year 2027 concerning strategic initiatives and operational efficiencies. A primary catalyst for FY2027 is the August 2026 platform launch. This new platform will introduce an AI-driven control tower, featuring consumption-based pricing for AI agent services. Management anticipates this innovation will generate 10-11% revenue growth [1].
Investor focus includes workforce impact, existing product performance, and AI disruption. Investors are also closely monitoring the effectiveness of the 17% workforce reduction, which occurred earlier in 2026, to determine its contribution to improved off-season operating margins and bottom-line growth. The sustained performance of Intuit Enterprise Suite and TurboTax Live continues to be a key area of investor attention [2]. Analyst sentiment is currently mixed; some point to the stock's substantial undervaluation and consistent history of exceeding earnings expectations [3][4], while others voice apprehension regarding potential AI-driven disruption within the tax preparation industry [4]. Consequently, comprehensive guidance on the AI platform's profitability and success, alongside favorable results from the workforce reduction and robust segment performance, could act as a significant catalyst for the stock price.
Sources (4)
  1. 1Is Intuit Stock a Buy in 2026 After Falling 67% From Its 52-Week High? | TIKR.comtikr.com
  2. 2Intuit Stock’s Operating Leverage Story: What the Income Statement Says About a $469 Target | TIKR.comtikr.com
  3. 3Intuit Inc (INTU) Earnings Reports & Dates | FXEmpirefxempire.com
  4. 4Intuit: The Sell Off Has Hit Ridiculous Levels (NASDAQ:INTU)seekingalpha.com

8. How is revenue growth expected to compare between Intuit's 'Small Business and Self-Employed' and 'Consumer' segments in the Q4 2026 report?

FY26 Global Business Solutions Revenue GrowthApproximately 16% (full fiscal year 2026) [1][2][3][4]
FY26 Consumer Revenue GrowthApproximately 10% (full fiscal year 2026) [1][2][3][4]
Q4 FY26 Total Company Revenue Growth Guidance11% to 12% [1][2][3][4]
Intuit has not provided segment-specific Q4 2026 revenue growth targets. The company has not released specific fourth-quarter-only growth targets for its 'Small Business and Self-Employed' and 'Consumer' segments for fiscal year 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Consequently, information regarding how revenue growth is expected to compare between these two segments for Q4 2026 is currently unavailable. For the full fiscal year 2026, Intuit guided revenue growth of approximately 16% for its 'Global Business Solutions' (Small Business and Self-Employed) segment and about 10% for its 'Consumer' segment [1][2][3][4].
Total company Q4 2026 revenue growth guidance ranges from 11% to 12%. For the fourth quarter of 2026, Intuit has exclusively offered a total company revenue growth guidance, which is projected to range from 11% to 12% [1][2][3][4]. Intuit's Q4 2026 earnings are currently anticipated to be announced on August 25, 2026, based on an update issued on August 13, 2026. Whether the company will exceed its quarterly earnings for Q4 2026 is yet to be determined [5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Intuit Reports Strong Third-Quarter Results and Raises Full-Year Revenue Guidanceinvestors.intuit.com
  2. 2Intuit Reports Strong Third-Quarter Results and Raises Full...investors.intuit.com
  3. 3https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/intuit-inc_intu_earnings_call_transcript_2026-05-20earningscalls.dev
  4. 4Intuit Inc. Third-quarter Fiscal 2026 Conference Call Remarks May 20, 2026investors.intuit.com
  5. 5Intuit (INTU) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings Call & Financialspublic.com
  6. 6Intuit (INTU) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com

9. What alternative datasets, such as credit card transaction data or web traffic, are available to model Intuit's Q4 2026 performance?

Alternative Datasets for IntuitWeb traffic, mobile app downloads, hiring/job postings, employee sentiment, Reddit mentions, Stocktwits activity, insider transactions, Google Trends [1][2]
QuickBooks Credit Card Data FunctionReal-time transaction information, serves as a lagging indicator of past performance [3]
Predictive Model ComponentsHistorical surprise patterns, analyst/insider signals, macroeconomic factors, alternative datasets [4][5]
Multiple alternative datasets can model Intuit's Q4 2026 performance. To analyze Intuit's potential future financial outcomes, a variety of alternative data sources can be utilized. These include web traffic analytics, mobile app download figures, data related to hiring and job postings, employee sentiment indicators, mentions across social media platforms like Reddit and Stocktwits, insider transaction records, and Google Trends data [1][2]. These varied datasets offer distinct perspectives for evaluating the company's prospective performance.
QuickBooks credit card data reflects past performance, not future revenue. While QuickBooks integrated credit card data provides real-time transaction insights, it primarily functions as a lagging indicator of historical activity [3]. This type of data does not inherently serve as a forward-looking tool for forecasting future cash flow or revenue. Therefore, it reflects past financial activity rather than directly predicting future financial outcomes.
Predictive models integrate diverse data for comprehensive earnings forecasts. To calculate beat probabilities and provide a comprehensive outlook on potential earnings outcomes for Intuit, these alternative datasets are often integrated with other crucial factors [4][5]. Such models frequently incorporate historical earnings surprise patterns, signals derived from financial analysts and company insiders, and broader macroeconomic factors, often employing machine learning techniques.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Intuit (INTU) Stock Analysis: AI Score & Alternative Dataaltindex.com
  2. 2Intuit (INTU) AI Stock Analysis: AI Score & Signal Breakdown 2026 | AltIndexaltindex.com
  3. 3QuickBooks New Card: What It Solves, What It Does Notfinoya.ai
  4. 4INTU Earnings: 95% Beat Probability — Next Aug 19 — fffinstillfffinstill.com
  5. 5The AI Transformation of Intuit: A 2026 Deep-Dive Research Featuremarkets.financialcontent.com

10. What is the divergence between Wall Street's official consensus and the trader 'whisper number' for Intuit's Q4 2026 EPS?

Official Q4 2026 EPS Estimate$3.54 [1]
Trader Whisper Q4 2026 EPS$3.76 [1]
Q4 2026 Earnings Release DateAugust 25, 2026 [2][3][4]
Intuit's Q4 2026 EPS estimates show a notable divergence. As of August 13, 2026, the official Wall Street consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimate for Intuit (INTU) for its fourth fiscal quarter of 2026 is $3.54. In contrast, the trader 'whisper number' for the same period stands at $3.76 [1]. This difference represents a divergence of approximately 6.3% between the widely reported consensus and the whisper number [1].
Intuit's Q4 2026 earnings release is scheduled for late August. The company has officially announced that its fiscal Q4 and full-year 2026 earnings will be released on August 25, 2026 [2][3][4]. While explicit quantification of prediction markets for this event is not available in current data, some analysts and market indicators suggest that Intuit may be well-positioned to exceed earnings estimates [5][6]. This potential aligns with Intuit's established historical pattern of frequently surpassing consensus expectations [5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1INTU Whisper Number & Earnings Estimates - Intuit Inc | The Whisper Numberthewhispernumber.com
  2. 2Intuit to Announce Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Fiscal 2026 Results on Aug. 25; Investor Day Set for Sep. 17:: Intuit Inc. (INTU)investors.intuit.com
  3. 3Q4 and Fiscal-Year 2026 Earnings Conference Callinvestors.intuit.com
  4. 4Intuit Sets Aug. 25 Fiscal 2026 Earnings Date | INTU Stock Newsstocktitan.net
  5. 5Intuit Q4 Earnings Preview: Should You Buy the Stock Now or Wait? | Nasdaqnasdaq.com
  6. 6Why Intuit (INTU) is Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates Againfinance.yahoo.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Intuit (INTU) has officially announced its fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 earnings announcement for August 25, 2026, following the close of market [1]. The company's fiscal year ends on July 31 [2], and its Q4 and full-year earnings reports are typically released in late August, for instance on August 21, 2025 [2][3].
Wall Street consensus estimates for Intuit's Q4 2026 EPS range from $3.59 to $3.66, with revenue expectations around $4.3 billion to $4.37 billion [4][5][6][7]. Analyst sentiment is mixed, carrying a consensus Moderate Buy rating, but recent downgrades from firms like Morgan Stanley and Truist highlight concerns over softening growth and uncertainty in the TurboTax business and AI monetization [8][9][10].
Intuit has beaten earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters [11][9][10]. However, as of August 13, 2026, Intuit has not yet released its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings [12][13][14]. Market predictions regarding whether the company will "beat" earnings are speculative and not supported by official resolution sources [12][13][14].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: August 25, 2026
Sources (14)
  1. 1Intuit to Announce Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Fiscal 2026 Results on Aug. 25; Investor Day Set for Sep. 17:: Intuit Inc. (INTU)investors.intuit.com
  2. 2intu-20250821sec.gov
  3. 3Aug 21, 2025sec.gov
  4. 4INTU Q4 2026 earnings estimate — revenue & EPStickerleague.com
  5. 5Intuit Inc. (INTU) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Financeca.finance.yahoo.com
  6. 6Intuit Inc (INTU) Earnings Reports & Dates | FXEmpirefxempire.com
  7. 7INTUIT INC (INTU) Forecast, Price Target & Analyst Ratingschartmill.com
  8. 8Dear Intuit Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for August 25barchart.com
  9. 9What to Expect From Intuit's Next Quarterly Earnings Reportfinance.yahoo.com
  10. 10Susquehanna Issues Pessimistic Forecast for Intuit...marketbeat.com
  11. 11What to Expect From Intuit's Next Quarterly Earnings Reportbarchart.com
  12. 12Documentsec.gov
  13. 13intu-20260520sec.gov
  14. 14Documentsec.gov