Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Digital, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This contract repriced violently higher on August 19, jumping 74 percentage points from 6.0% to 80.0%. This single-day move accounts for the entirety of the market's upward trend. The provided context indicates there is no verifiable driver for this spike; research found no specific news, social media activity, or other catalyst coinciding with the move. The price has held at the 80.0% level since the event.
Total volume stands at 1,117 contracts. The extreme price movement without a clear public catalyst suggests either a thinly traded market or a significant repricing based on a private information flow. The 80.0% level now acts as established resistance. The market sentiment has shifted decisively, with the current price reflecting high conviction that BJ's Wholesale will mention "Digital" during its earnings call on August 21.
  • New Q3/Q4 2026 club openings may impact future General Merchandise sales.
  • Own Brand penetration reached 27% of total sales by mid-2026.
  • Gasoline price differentials throughout Q2 2026 are widely trackable.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
ExpressPay 80.0% 73.7% ExpressPay technology improves checkout efficiency and customer convenience.
General Merchandise 93.0% 90.8% General merchandise is a core sales category for wholesale clubs.
Diesel 25.0% 13.7% BJ's Wholesale may discuss Diesel brand merchandise performance or new partnerships.
Gasoline 83.0% 77.6% Gasoline sales are a significant draw and revenue stream for BJ's.
Renewal Rate 86.0% 81.5% Membership renewal rates are a key performance indicator for wholesale clubs.

Current Context

BJ's Wholesale Club will report Q2 2026 earnings on August 21. The company is scheduled to host its Q2 2026 earnings conference call on Friday, August 21, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. ET [1][2][3][4][5]. Analysts anticipate Q2 2026 earnings per share (EPS) between $1.16 and $1.17, with a street consensus non-GAAP EPS estimate of $1.16 [6][7][8][9][4][5]. Total revenue is projected to be in the range of $5.89 billion to $5.97 billion for the quarter [6][7][8].
Market sentiment is positive, with potential for an earnings beat. Expectations for the upcoming call are generally positive, with some analysts noting a potential for an earnings surprise, reflected by an Earnings ESP of +0.39% [6][7][8]. The company has a history of exceeding consensus estimates [6][7][8]. Management's commentary on the utilization of tariff-related refunds will be a key area of interest. These refunds provided an approximate $20 million benefit in the previous quarter, and their use for maintaining price competitiveness against peers will be scrutinized [10].
BJ's maintains its fiscal 2026 guidance and continues expansion efforts. The company previously reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, including adjusted EPS of $4.40–$4.60 [11]. BJ's is also actively expanding its physical footprint, with new club openings in Kentucky, Florida, and Indiana planned for 2026 [11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1BJ's Wholesale Club Announces Second Quarter Fiscal 2026...newsroom.bjs.com
  2. 2BJ’s Wholesale Club Announces Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call Date | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  3. 3BJ’s Wholesale Club Announces Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call Dateinvestor.wedbush.com
  4. 4Will BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) beat quarterly earnings?polymarket.com
  5. 5Will BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) beat quarterly earnings?polymarket.com
  6. 6BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release — Latest News | MetaTradermetatrader.com
  7. 7BJ’s Wholesale Club Earnings Anticipated to Rise: Key Insights Before Next Week’s Report - WallStreet Waveswallstreetwaves.com
  8. 8BJ’s Q2 2026 Earnings: Expect 11% Revenue Growth Amid Retail Shakeup:: SentimentTradingsentiment-trading.com
  9. 9BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ) to Release Earnings on Friday - Daily Politicaldailypolitical.com
  10. 10Retail Warehouse Earnings Lifted by $30M Tariff Refunds - Pomegra Newspomegra.io
  11. 11BJs Wholesale Club Holdings (BJ) Stock News | StockTitanstocktitan.net

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 19, 2026: 87.0pp spike

Price increased from 6.0% to 93.0%

Outcome: Digital

What happened: There is no verifiable evidence to identify a primary driver for an 87.0 percentage point spike in the "Digital" outcome for BJ's Wholesale Club on August 19, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Research indicates no specific social media activity, such as posts from influential figures or viral narratives, coinciding with or leading up to this reported spike [1][2][3][4]. While BJ's Wholesale Club is expected to hold its earnings call on August 21, 2026, no related news or announcements correspond to the specified price movement date [5][6][1]. Therefore, social media activity appears irrelevant to this reported market movement based on the available information.
Sources (6)
  1. 1Will BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) beat quarterly earnings?polymarket.com
  2. 2https://polymarket.com/uk/event/bj-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-08-21-2026-1pt16polymarket.com
  3. 3https://polymarket.com/hi/event/bj-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-08-21-2026-1pt16polymarket.com
  4. 4https://polymarket.com/vi/event/bj-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-08-21-2026-1pt16polymarket.com
  5. 5BJ’s Wholesale Club Announces Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call Date | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  6. 6BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The provided content does not explicitly state the conditions that trigger a 'YES' or 'NO' resolution for whether specific terms like 'Fuel,' 'Curbside,' or 'Egg' will be said during BJ's Wholesale's next earnings call. The market began on Friday, August 21, 8:00 am EDT, with a maximum payout date of December 31, 2026. A 3.25% interest rate is noted for the 'Egg' sub-market.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Digital $0.95 $0.13 93%
General Merchandise $0.94 $0.15 93%
Renewal Rate $0.86 $0.23 86%
Own Brand $0.85 $0.24 85%
Gasoline $0.83 $0.26 83%
ExpressPay $0.83 $0.27 80%
Fuel $0.69 $0.39 69%
Rotterdam $0.75 $0.34 69%
Curbside $0.65 $0.44 64%
Egg $0.56 $0.50 50%
Tally $0.34 $0.74 35%
Ask Bev $0.36 $0.73 33%
Wellesley Farms $0.31 $0.78 30%
Diesel $0.24 $0.83 25%

Market Discussion

BJ's Wholesale Club is scheduled to announce its second quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Friday, August 21, 2026, with a conference call at 8:00 a.m. ET [1][2][3]. Analysts generally expect non-GAAP EPS of $1.16 to $1.17 and revenue between $5.89 billion and $5.97 billion for the quarter, with financial markets actively tracking whether the non-GAAP EPS will exceed the $1.16 consensus estimate [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. Public discussion also indicates scrutiny on BJ's performance, particularly concerning traffic growth, pricing power, and supply chain efficiency [12][13].

Sources (13)
  1. 1BJ’s Wholesale Club Announces Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call Date | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  2. 2BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
  3. 3BJ's Wholesale Club Next Earnings Datenextearningsdate.com
  4. 4BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) Earnings Expected to Growzacks.com
  5. 5BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Releasefinance.yahoo.com
  6. 6https://polymarket.com/event/bj-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-08-21-2026-1pt16polymarket.com
  7. 7BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ) to Release Earnings on Friday - Daily Politicaldailypolitical.com
  8. 8https://polymarket.com/uk/event/bj-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-08-21-2026-1pt16polymarket.com
  9. 9https://polymarket.com/hi/event/bj-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-08-21-2026-1pt16polymarket.com
  10. 10https://polymarket.com/vi/event/bj-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-08-21-2026-1pt16polymarket.com
  11. 11Will BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) beat quarterly earnings?polymarket.com
  12. 12BJ’s Q2 2026 Earnings: Expect 11% Revenue Growth Amid Retail Shakeup:: SentimentTradingsentiment-trading.com
  13. 13BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) Earnings Predictionaltindex.com

5. How do BJ's Wholesale and Costco's strategies on pricing and membership growth compare heading into the second half of 2026?

Costco U.S. and Canada Renewal Rate92.2% [1]
BJ's Tenured-Member Renewal Rate90% [1]
BJ's Anticipated Revenue Growth (YoY)9.5% to 11% [2]
Costco and BJ's differentiate through distinct market and pricing strategies. Costco operates with a global warehouse club model, characterized by an aggressive low-price strategy and high-margin membership fees, aiming for leadership in price reductions while being slow to increase them [1][3]. In contrast, BJ's Wholesale employs a regional, grocery-focused approach, distinguishing itself by utilizing coupon stacking and a smaller club footprint to attract price-sensitive consumers [1][3].
Both companies exhibit strong membership loyalty, with BJ's forecasting growth. Costco reports a 92.2% membership renewal rate in the U.S. and Canada, while BJ's maintains a 90% tenured-member renewal rate as of mid-2026 [1][3]. BJ's Wholesale Club is scheduled to announce its Q2 fiscal 2026 financial results on August 21, 2026 [2][4]. Heading into the latter half of 2026, analysts anticipate revenue growth of approximately 9.5% to 11% year-over-year for BJ's, with consensus earnings estimates around $1.16 per share [2][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Consumer Stress Puts Walmart, Costco and BJ’s at the Center of the Value Retail Tradebrief.sharpertrades.com
  2. 2BJ’s Wholesale Club Earnings Anticipated to Rise: Key Insights Before Next Week’s Report - WallStreet Waveswallstreetwaves.com
  3. 3COST vs BJ: Costco vs BJ's Wholesale — Warehouse Club Leaders Compared | BriMindInvestbrimindinvest.com
  4. 4BJ’s Wholesale Club Announces Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call Date | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  5. 5BJ’s Q2 2026 Earnings: Expect 11% Revenue Growth Amid Retail Shakeup:: SentimentTradingsentiment-trading.com

6. What key assumptions underpin analyst forecasts for BJ's Wholesale's Q2 2026 EPS to be between $1.16 and $1.17?

Q2 2026 EPS Forecast Range$1.16 - $1.17 [1][2][3]
Q2 2026 EPS Analyst Consensus$1.16 [1][2][3]
Key AssumptionsRobust membership fee income, operational discipline, value-oriented model [3][4][5]
BJ's Wholesale's Q2 2026 EPS is projected between $1.16 and $1.17. Analyst forecasts for BJ's Wholesale's Q2 2026 earnings per share (EPS) are expected to range from $1.16 to $1.17 [1][2][3]. The current analyst consensus for the period stands at $1.16, aligning with broader market expectations [1][2][3].
Forecasts are primarily driven by several key performance assumptions. These projections are supported by critical assumptions regarding the company's performance [3][4][5]. Key factors include the expectation of robust membership fee income, recognized as a high-margin, recurring revenue source [3][4][5]. Analysts also emphasize operational discipline and effective cost management, particularly in controlling merchandise shrink [3][4][5]. Furthermore, it is assumed that BJ's Wholesale's value-oriented business model will enable it to maintain customer traffic and healthy margins even amidst evolving consumer spending habits and macroeconomic uncertainties [3][4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Financeca.finance.yahoo.com
  2. 2BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) analyst ratings, estimates and forecasts – Yahoo Financeau.finance.yahoo.com
  3. 3BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Releasefinance.yahoo.com
  4. 4BJ Q2 2026 Earnings: EPS Beats Estimates by 3.7% Despite...weatherapi.com
  5. 5BJ Q2 2026 Earnings: EPS Beats Estimates as Wholesale Club Operator Shows Resilience - Cost Structure Reviewworldweatheronline.com

7. What are the projected financial impacts for Q3 and Q4 2026 from BJ's new club openings in Kentucky, Florida, and Indiana?

New Club Locations AnnouncedKentucky (Frankfort), Florida (Ocala, Lecanto, Port St. Lucie), Indiana (Portage) [1][2][3][4]
2026 New Club Openings Goal12 new clubs in 2026 [1][2][3][4]
Projected Financial Impact 2026Slight SG&A deleverage throughout fiscal 2026 [5][6][7][8]
BJ's Wholesale plans significant club expansion across several states in 2026. In May 2026, BJ's Wholesale announced plans to open new club locations in Frankfort, Kentucky; Ocala, Lecanto, and Port St. Lucie, Florida; and Portage, Indiana [1][2][3][4]. These openings are part of the company's larger goal to launch a total of 12 new clubs during fiscal year 2026 [1][2][3][4].
New club openings are expected to cause slight SG&A deleverage. The projected financial impact for fiscal 2026, including the third and fourth quarters, indicates that management has guided for slight selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) deleverage [5][6][7][8]. This anticipated deleverage is primarily attributed to the costs associated with the accelerated new club openings and higher depreciation [5][6][7][8].
An upcoming earnings call will provide fiscal 2026 performance details. BJ's Wholesale is scheduled to hold its second quarter fiscal 2026 earnings conference call on August 21, 2026, where further insights into the company's financial performance are expected [9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1BJ's Wholesale Club Accelerates Growth with New...investors.bjs.com
  2. 2BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. | BJ’s Wholesale Club Accelerates Growth with New Locations in Kentucky, Florida and Indiananewsroom.bjs.com
  3. 3BJ's sales climb 10%; to open five new clubs — here's wherechainstoreage.com
  4. 4BJ’s Wholesale to Open New Locations in Three Statesshoppingcenterbusiness.com
  5. 5BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings (BJ) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  6. 6https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-3-5-bjs-wholesale-club-holdings-inc-stock/marketbeat.com
  7. 7BJ Q4-2026 Earnings Call - Alpha Spreadalphaspread.com
  8. 8BJ Q4 Deep Dive: Guidance Disappoints Despite Membership and Digital Gainsinvestor.wedbush.com
  9. 9BJ's Wholesale Club Announces Second Quarter Fiscal 2026...newsroom.bjs.com
  10. 10BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com

8. What datasets are available to track regional gasoline price differentials between BJ's and its key competitors throughout Q2 2026?

OPIS Daily Price Monitoring5 million daily prices [1]
DataWeave ZIP Code Coverage30,000+ ZIP codes [2]
BJ's Gas Pricing StrategyMaintain prices below average retail market rates [3]
Multiple data sources are available for tracking regional gasoline price differentials. These datasets, suitable for monitoring differences between BJ's and its key competitors throughout Q2 2026, include professional intelligence services and API-based platforms [1][2]. Specific providers such as OPIS monitor 5 million daily prices, while DataWeave offers hyperlocal insights across more than 30,000 ZIP codes [1][2]. Additional options encompass the bluedoor Gas Prices API and historical GasBuddy information, which is provided by PDI Technologies through the University of Chicago's Kilts Center [1][2].
BJ's aims to offer competitive gas prices as a membership benefit. BJ's Wholesale's strategy involves maintaining gasoline prices below average retail market rates to demonstrate value to its members [3]. The company primarily competes with supercenters, supermarkets, and other warehouse clubs such as Costco and Sam's Club [3][4][5]. It is anticipated that the competitive dynamics of gas pricing, particularly between BJ's and Costco, will vary significantly by region during Q2 2026 [6][5].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Fuel Pricing Intelligencedataweave.com
  2. 2Retail Fuel Market Prices & Competitive Analysis for Gas...opis.com
  3. 3bj-20260131sec.gov
  4. 4Is a BJ's Membership Worth It Just for the Gas Savings?bjsgasprice.com
  5. 5Comparing Gas Prices and Quality: Costco vs. BJ'seathealthy365.com
  6. 6Who Has Cheaper Gas Prices, Costco or BJ's? A Full Guideeathealthy365.com

9. How does the market share of BJ's 'Own Brand' products compare to private label offerings from competitors like Costco and Walmart in mid-2026?

BJ's 'Own Brand' penetration (mid-2026)Approximately 27% [1][2]
BJ's 'Own Brand' penetration goal30% [1][2]
Competitor private label penetrationApproximately 33-34% (Costco) or 33% (Sam's Club) [3][4][5]
BJ's 'Own Brand' penetration reached approximately 27% of total sales by mid-2026. As of mid-2026, BJ's Wholesale Club's 'Own Brand' products, including Wellsley Farms and Berkley Jensen, constituted approximately 27% of its total merchandise sales [1][2]. The company has publicly stated its intention to increase this figure, actively working towards achieving a 30% penetration rate for its proprietary offerings [1][2].
BJ's 'Own Brand' penetration trails competitors like Costco and Sam's Club. This current penetration rate for BJ's 'Own Brand' products is lower compared to the private label offerings of its key competitors in the wholesale club market [3]. For instance, Costco's widely recognized Kirkland Signature brand accounts for a significantly higher portion of its total sales, ranging from approximately 33% to 34% [3][4]. Similarly, Walmart's Sam's Club also demonstrates stronger private label penetration, with its Member's Mark brand representing approximately 33% of its sales [3][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) Business & Moat Analysis (2026)koalagains.com
  2. 2BJ's Wholesale Approaches 30% Own Brand Penetration...storebrands.com
  3. 3Costco, BJ's and Sam's Club Expand Store-Brand Productsprogressivegrocer.com
  4. 4Store Brands Grab More Shelf Space At The Clubsstorebrands.com
  5. 5Top 5 Private Label Brands are Owned by Walmart; Kroger's Smart Way is Fastest Growing Store Brand, Numerator Reports - Numeratornumerator.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

BJ's Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ) is scheduled to release its fiscal second-quarter 2026 financial results on Friday, August 21, 2026, before the market opens, with a conference call at 8:00 a.m. ET [1][2][3][4]. Analysts estimate earnings of approximately $1.16–$1.17 per share and revenue around $5.89–$5.97 billion, representing year-over-year growth of about 9.5–11% in revenue [5][6][7][4]. The street consensus estimate for BJ's Wholesale Club's non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) for the relevant quarter is $1.16 [8][9][10][11].
Market sentiment leans slightly bullish, with an Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of +0.39% [5][7][12]. The company has a track record of consistently beating consensus EPS estimates, including a +5.77% surprise in the previous quarter [5][7][12].
Key catalysts and focus areas for investors include the durability of the membership-driven business model, margin pressure management, club expansion progress, and competitive positioning within the warehouse retail sector compared to peers like Walmart and Target [6][12].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: December 31, 2026
  • Closes: December 31, 2026
Sources (12)
  1. 1BJ's Wholesale Club Announces Second Quarter Fiscal...finance.yahoo.com
  2. 2BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
  3. 3BJ’s Wholesale Club updates financial calendar, sets quarterly earnings call - BJ News | Ralliesrallies.ai
  4. 4BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ) to Release Earnings on Friday - Daily Politicaldailypolitical.com
  5. 5BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release — Latest News | MetaTradermetatrader.com
  6. 6BJ’s Q2 2026 Earnings: Expect 11% Revenue Growth Amid Retail Shakeup:: SentimentTradingsentiment-trading.com
  7. 7BJ’s Wholesale Club Earnings Anticipated to Rise: Key Insights Before Next Week’s Report - WallStreet Waveswallstreetwaves.com
  8. 8Will BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) beat quarterly earnings?polymarket.com
  9. 9https://polymarket.com/uk/event/bj-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-08-21-2026-1pt16polymarket.com
  10. 10https://polymarket.com/hi/event/bj-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-08-21-2026-1pt16polymarket.com
  11. 11https://polymarket.com/vi/event/bj-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-08-21-2026-1pt16polymarket.com
  12. 12What BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings (BJ)'s Earnings Beat Optimism and Valuation Debate Means For Shareholders - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st

12. Related News

+83.0pp
Last updated: August 19, 2026, 12:20 UTC

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