Short Answer

The Fear & Greed Index is expected to be Neutral on September 4, 2026, with a reported reading of 54, a sentiment the market prices at 83.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's primary move, a drop from 10% to 4% between August 28 and September 2, appears driven by anticipation of the nonfarm payrolls report. The context indicates this data was "looming" just ahead of the September 4 resolution date, injecting uncertainty into the market outlook. Such uncertainty typically lowers the probability of a strong positive sentiment reading, which the low-probability "YES" price suggests this contract was tracking.
The market trend proved correct. On September 4, the Fear & Greed Index registered 35.23, a reading in the "Fear" range. This outcome was consistent with the cautious sentiment priced in by traders ahead of the jobs report. The total volume of 794 contracts traded over the life of the market indicates that conviction behind the move was not deep.
  • Neutral sentiment is highly likely, with the index reported at 54.
  • Fear remains a possibility, citing ambiguous reports of readings around 45.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Extreme Greed 4.0% 3.7% No specific evidence supports Extreme Greed; the stock market index was 54 (Neutral).
Greed 1.0% 0.9% No evidence supports Greed for the stock market index, which was reported at 54 (Neutral).
Neutral 83.0% 80.1% The stock market Fear & Greed Index was reported at 54, indicating a Neutral sentiment.
Fear 20.0% 14.4% Some reporting from price movement analysis suggests index readings around 45, which indicates Fear.
Extreme Fear 1.0% 0.9% No evidence supports Extreme Fear; the stock market index was reported as 54 (Neutral).

Current Context

Stock market sentiment registered "Fear" on September 4, 2026. The Fear & Greed Index reading was 35.23, placing it in the "Fear" range of 25-45 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Tracker readings for the same date were around 35 and 36, also indicating "Fear" [^][^][^][^][^][^]. For September 3, 2026, the index was reported at 36, declining to 35 by close [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Separately, a general report cited the Stock Market Fear & Greed Index at 54 ("Neutral") on September 3, 2026 [^][^][^]. The Cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index indicated "Greed" on September 4, 2026, with reported values of 78, 74, and 62 [^][^][^]. Investor risk appetite had deteriorated sharply by early September 2026 to its lowest level in nearly two and a half years, with the S&P Global Investment Manager Index (IMI) falling from -10% in August to -29% [^]. Despite this, equity market volatility, measured by the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), reached near one-year lows by the end of August, closing the month at 14.92 [^][^].
Dovish Fed commentary spurred a global market rally. Market sentiment on September 4, 2026, was influenced by dovish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller [^][^][^][^][^]. On September 3, Waller stated he would support maintaining unchanged interest rates at the September 16 meeting if inflation data remains moderate, though he noted a potential hike if August inflation progress proved fleeting [^]. This commentary caused the implied probability of a September rate hike to decrease from approximately 63% to 50% [^][^][^][^][^]. Global financial markets reacted with a rally, seeing gains in major indices including the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 [^][^][^]. The Dow Jones notably jumped 600 points [^]. Brent crude oil prices remained elevated near $95-$99/barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions [^][^]. Key upcoming economic data releases, critical for the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, include the US August nonfarm payrolls report (Sep 4), US August Producer Price Index (PPI) on September 10, and US August Consumer Price Index (CPI) on September 11 [^][^][^][^].
No explicit Fear & Greed Index methodology changes were noted. No explicit methodology changes or expert opinions specifically tied to the Fear & Greed Index on September 4, 2026, were reported in the provided evidence [^][^][^][^][^][^]. While market news context from September 4, 2026, was available, it was not explicitly linked to the index's methodology or specific changes on that date [^][^][^][^][^][^]. On September 3, 2026, the SEC proposed the rescission of its "pay-to-play" rule (Advisers Act Rule 206(4)-5), which restricts investment advisers' political contributions [^].

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Neutral

📈 September 04, 2026: 82.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 83.0%

What happened: The provided research does not evidence a "Fear & Greed Index spike of 82.0 percentage points" on September 4, 2026, instead indicating stable equity volatility and index readings around 45 ('Fear') or 54 ('Neutral' for the prior day) [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. The primary driver for market sentiment on September 4, 2026, was dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller regarding a potential pause in interest rate hikes, which caused Treasury yields to ease and spurred significant crypto short liquidations [^][^][^][^]. While a public social media feud between AMC Entertainment and Robinhood CEOs did trigger extreme speculative activity in a new token, this was a secondary, unrelated catalyst to the broader market [^]. Therefore, social media was mostly noise relative to the major market drivers observed, and the claimed index spike cannot be substantiated.

📉 September 02, 2026: 65.0pp drop

Price decreased from 78.0% to 13.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 65.0 percentage point price drop in the "Fear & Greed Index on Sep 4, 2026?" prediction market on September 2, 2026, was traditional news indicating a significant shift in market sentiment towards 'fear' [^][^]. This shift was prompted by a more than 400-point decline in the Dow, rising Treasury yields, and higher crude oil prices, which reportedly pushed the stock market Fear & Greed Index into the 'fear' zone [^][^]. This immediate downturn decreased the perceived probability of a "Neutral" outcome, although market sentiment later recovered to 'Neutral' by September 4 following dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Waller on September 3 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Social media was irrelevant to this specific price movement, as no related activity from key figures or viral narratives was identified.

Outcome: Extreme Fear

📉 September 03, 2026: 47.0pp drop

Price decreased from 65.0% to 18.0%

What happened: The provided web research does not support a 47.0 percentage point drop in the Fear & Greed Index resulting in "Extreme Fear" on September 3, 2026. The CNN Fear & Greed Index was at approximately 33-35 ("Fear") during this period, not "Extreme Fear," with daily changes of less than one point, not 47 points [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Crypto Fear & Greed indices also indicated "Greed" and showed increases or minor fluctuations, not significant drops [^][^][^][^]. Given that the described price movement is not evidenced by the available data, no primary driver from social media, traditional news, or market structure can be identified for it.

Outcome: Fear

📈 September 01, 2026: 58.0pp spike

Price increased from 16.0% to 74.0%

What happened: The claimed 58.0 percentage point spike in the Fear & Greed Index on September 1, 2026, is not substantiated by the available research, which suggests it may be a misinterpretation or artifact [^][^][^]. Contrary to a spike, some data for September 1, 2026, implies a -4 point move, while the VIX index was near a one-year low by September 3, 2026 [^][^]. Although traditional news reported market volatility, declining stocks, and surging oil prices on September 1, 2026, due to U.S.-Iran tensions [^][^][^][^], these events are not linked to a confirmed 58.0pp Fear & Greed Index increase. As the specified price movement itself lacks verification, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver.

📉 August 31, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 26.0% to 16.0%

What happened: No social media activity was found to directly cause the 10.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market price for the "Fear" outcome on August 31, 2026. Traditional news on that date indicated a significant increase in market fear, driven by U.S. military strikes in the Strait of Hormuz and hawkish Federal Reserve comments, which caused crude oil prices to surge and stocks to dip [^][^][^][^][^]. These events would typically lead to an increase in the perceived probability of a "Fear" outcome, making the reported price drop for "Fear" contradictory to the available primary news drivers [^][^][^][^][^]. Consequently, social media was irrelevant, and a primary driver for this specific prediction market price drop cannot be identified from the provided information.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves based on the Fear & Greed Index value for the current day. A 'Yes' contract for a specific state (e.g., Neutral, Fear, Extreme Fear) resolves to YES if the Index corresponds to that state, and to NO otherwise. The market starts on September 4, 9:30 AM EDT, and has a series maximum payout date of September 11, 2026.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Neutral $0.82 $0.81 83%
Fear $0.97 $0.80 20%
Extreme Greed $0.01 $1.00 4%
Extreme Fear $0.54 $0.99 1%
Greed $0.25 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

On September 4, 2026, the Cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index indicated a state of "Greed" with values ranging from 62 to 78 [^][^][^], whereas the Stock Market Fear & Greed Index was reported as "neutral" at approximately 45-54 [^][^]. Financial market sentiment on September 4, 2026, was influenced by dovish Federal Reserve comments that bolstered equities and reduced expectations for a September rate hike [^][^][^], though the S&P Global Investment Manager Index for September 2026 indicated a sharp deterioration in risk appetite to -29%, its lowest since May 2023, driven by valuation, political, and recession concerns [^].

5. Trader Dashboard

A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.

Extreme GreedPrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality68Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality68Mostly confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
Extreme FearTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality70Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality70Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
FearTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality80Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality80Confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
NeutralTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality72Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality72Confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
GreedTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality72Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality72Confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.14 · computed Sep 4, 2026

6. Which economic data releases in late August and early September 2026 are most likely to influence the Fear & Greed Index reading?

Primary Market-Moving EventU.S. Employment Situation Report on September 4, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]
Specific Key Data ReleaseU.S. August Non-Farm Payrolls on September 4, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^]
Influential Preceding IndicatorISM Services PMI for August 2026 on September 3, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]
The U.S. Employment Situation report is the primary market mover. The U.S. Employment Situation (payrolls/unemployment) report, scheduled for September 4, 2026, is identified as the most likely economic data release in late August and early September to influence a Fear & Greed-style market sentiment reading [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Specifically, the U.S. August Non-Farm Payrolls, released on this date, is considered a critical economic data point for market sentiment [^][^][^][^][^]. This BLS Employment Situation report is explicitly described as the main market-moving event for the day, directly tied to Federal Reserve (Fed) rate expectations and bond yield movements [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Market commentary emphasized that markets were awaiting the August jobs report to determine whether the Fed would adjust rates, with expectations centered on job growth and unemployment stability [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Preceding labor and services prints will also influence sentiment. Closely preceding labor-market and services-activity prints are also expected to influence sentiment. These include the BLS JOLTS report for July 2026 on September 1, 2026, and the BLS Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment for July 2026 on September 2, 2026. These serve as labor-market indicators that help confirm or challenge the labor narrative ahead of the main payrolls report [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI for August 2026, released on September 3, 2026, provides services activity momentum that influences growth and inflation expectations, thereby affecting risk appetite [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Additional releases in late August also affect equity and credit risk. Other scheduled U.S. releases in the August 24–September 4, 2026 window are likely to impact equity and credit risk sentiment. These include the BEA GDP (Second Estimate) & Corporate Profits for Q2 2026 on August 26, 2026, and the Census Advance Economic Indicators Report for July 2026 on August 27, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. These releases directly impact rate expectations and risk appetite, which are key drivers of “fear vs. greed” sentiment [^][^][^][^][^][^]. However, the provided research does not include the exact CNN Fear & Greed Index value or a specific sentiment label for September 4, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^].

7. What historical precedent exists for the Fear & Greed Index's behavior in early September during prior non-election years?

Election CorrelationNo formal historical study correlating Fear & Greed Index September performance with non-election year cycles [^]
Historical Market PerformanceSeptember is historically the weakest month for US equity performance [^][^]
Index Tracking StartCNN Fear & Greed Index tracked since 2011 [^]
No direct historical precedent exists for early September Fear & Greed Index behavior in non-election years. The Fear & Greed Index is not considered an election-related metric, and current research indicates a lack of formal historical studies correlating its September performance specifically with non-election year cycles. Consequently, there is no standardized historical precedent directly linking the Index to non-election year calendar patterns in early September [^].
September is historically weak for equities, influencing Fear & Greed Index readings. Historically, September is recognized as the weakest month for US equity performance, a tendency that often contributes to higher "Fear" readings in the CNN Fear & Greed Index due to seasonal market behavior [^][^]. The CNN Fear & Greed Index has been tracked since 2011, providing a historical record of various market conditions [^]. However, its specific performance in early September varies annually, influenced more by broader macroeconomic conditions than by calendar seasonality alone [^][^]. Market sentiment indices are generally driven by wider economic data, rather than specific election-related regulatory reporting periods [^][^].

8. How have the stock market and cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Indices trended relative to each other in Q3 2026?

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (Sept 4, 2026)Greed (78, 74, 62) [^][^][^]
Stock Market Fear & Greed Index (Sept 3, 2026)54 (Neutral) [^]
Crypto Market Sentiment (August 2026)Significant recovery with double-digit gains [^]
Early September saw differing sentiment between crypto and stock markets. As of early September 2026, the cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index reflected a "greed" sentiment, with various trackers reporting values between 62 and 78 on September 4, 2026 [^][^][^]. In contrast, the stock market Fear & Greed Index registered a "Neutral" sentiment, posting a value of 54 during the September 3, 2026 session [^].
August brought recovery to both crypto and equity market sentiment. August 2026 was characterized by a substantial recovery in crypto market sentiment, evidenced by double-digit gains across CF Benchmarks indices and increased market participation [^]. Similarly, the equity market showed improved breadth at the beginning of September 2026, although this positive shift was moderated by ongoing concerns regarding hawkish monetary policy and mixed economic signals [^][^].
Prediction markets continue to offer contracts on the Fear & Greed Index. Prediction markets, such as Kalshi, maintain active tracking and offer contracts related to the Fear & Greed Index for future dates, including September 11, 2026 [^][^].

9. What are the most reliable sources for historical data on the seven individual components of the Fear & Greed Index for FY 2026?

Historical Component DataNo single official historical database for the seven individual components of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for FY 2026 [^][^][^]
Reconstruction MethodSourcing underlying market inputs from official or primary market data [^][^][^][^][^][^]
Data for September 4, 2026Not provided in the evidence [^][^][^][^][^][^]
An official historical database for the seven individual components of the CNN Fear & Greed Index is not provided by CNN for FY 2026. Consequently, historical values must be reconstructed by sourcing raw market data. The most reliable approach for this reconstruction involves gathering underlying market inputs from official or primary market data that aligns with CNN’s established component logic [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Specific market data types are reliable for each component of the index. For Market momentum, S&P 500 data is most reliable, while NYSE 52-week highs and lows are used for Stock price strength. Stock price breadth relies on NYSE advance/decline data, and Put and call options are best sourced from the Cboe put/call ratio. Junk bond demand is derived from the high-yield versus investment-grade yield spread, and Market volatility is measured by the VIX from Cboe. Lastly, Safe haven demand is determined by the Treasury versus stock/risk-asset return or yield spread [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Specific component values and methodologies are not detailed within the provided evidence. The evidence does not contain authoritative, component-level historical values specifically for September 4, 2026, within the allowed window of March 4, 2026, to September 4, 2026. Additionally, the evidence does not identify specific provider sources, such as exact URLs or feeds, for these component values for that date, nor does it detail the exact published methodology or mapping to underlying raw inputs for each component as of that period [^][^][^][^][^][^].

10. How did the seven underlying components of the Fear & Greed Index contribute to its final reading on September 4, 2026?

Fear & Greed Index (September 4, 2026)54 (Neutral) [^]
Index Calculation MethodEqual-weighted average of seven indicators [^][^][^][^]
Number of Underlying Indicators7 [^][^][^][^]
On September 4, 2026, the Fear & Greed Index indicated a neutral market sentiment. The index recorded a value of 54, signifying a Neutral sentiment within the stock market [^]. This metric is designed as a composite index, derived from an equal-weighted average of seven distinct underlying indicators [^][^][^][^].
Seven core indicators comprise the Fear & Greed Index. These components are Market Momentum, Stock Price Strength, Stock Price Breadth, Put and Call Options, Junk Bond Demand, Market Volatility, and Safe Haven Demand [^][^][^][^]. Each component assesses different market aspects, such as the performance of the S&P 500 relative to its 125-day moving average and the 50-day moving average of the VIX [^][^][^][^].
Individual component contributions for September 4, 2026, are unspecified. Although the overall Fear & Greed Index value of 54 (Neutral) on September 4, 2026, is known, the provided research does not include specific details regarding the individual readings or the precise contributions of each of these seven constituent components that contributed to this final score.

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Upcoming catalysts for September 2026 include the September 16 FOMC meeting, featuring a Summary of Economic Projections [^] [^] [^] [^] . Market expectations for this meeting, as of early September 2026, were divided, with 55% probability for maintaining current rates and 45% for a 25 basis point hike [^][^]. A 64% likelihood exists for a hike to 3.75%-4.0% at the September 16, 2026 meeting [^]. Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated on 2026-09-04 that he could support holding rates steady if inflation cools [^]. Further key events include August CPI/PPI inflation data and an ECB interest rate decision [^]. Uncertainty surrounding inflation, at 3.4% as of late August 2026, remains a factor [^].
Market sentiment as of September 3, 2026, showed the CNN Fear & Greed Index in the "Fear" zone with a reading of 33 [^] . The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) stood at 14.32 on September 3, 2026 [^][^][^]. On 2026-09-04, bond yields increased, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reaching approximately 4.80% [^]. The August jobs data is a significant near-term volatility trigger [^][^]. Other market drivers include ongoing military conflicts [^], gross margin compression linked to surging memory costs from AI buildout [^], Lululemon cutting its full-year outlook again, and Adobe slipping due to CEO succession uncertainty on 2026-09-04 [^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 11, 2026
  • Closes: September 11, 2026

12. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Upcoming catalysts for September 2026 include the September 16 FOMC meeting, featuring a Summary of Economic Projections [^] [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: Market expectations for this meeting, as of early September 2026, were divided, with 55% probability for maintaining current rates and 45% for a 25 basis point hike [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: A 64% likelihood exists for a hike to 3.75%-4.0% at the September 16, 2026 meeting [^] .
  • Trigger: Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated on 2026-09-04 that he could support holding rates steady if inflation cools [^] .

14. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 16 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXFEAR-26AUG28-XGREE: NO (Aug 28, 2026)
  • KXFEAR-26AUG28-XFEAR: NO (Aug 28, 2026)
  • KXFEAR-26AUG28-NEUT: YES (Aug 28, 2026)
  • KXFEAR-26AUG28-GREE: NO (Aug 28, 2026)
  • KXFEAR-26AUG28-FEAR: NO (Aug 28, 2026)