Short Answer

Instacart app downloads in August 2026 are likely to exceed 110% of the prior year's volume, driven by 19 consecutive months of growth, recent acceleration in daily download rates, and 14% year-over-year Gross Transaction Value growth in Q2 2026. The market prices this outcome at 99.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The significant price volatility in this market during late August appears driven by data confusion rather than fundamental news. A 35.0 percentage point spike on August 29 was likely caused by a misattribution of app performance data, specifically confusion with a surge in the unrelated FOMO social trading app. The subsequent large moves, including a 51.0pp spike on August 30 and a sharp 82.0pp drop on August 31, lack clear catalysts in the available research. An earlier 75.0 percentage point drop on August 22 also has no identified driver.

This price action is inconsistent with reported metrics for Instacart. The app saw an average of 11,667 daily downloads across iOS and Android in August, a 16.7% growth over the preceding three months. In the 30 days leading up to August 25, the app recorded over 415,000 downloads on iOS alone. The market's final price of 17.0% reflects a significant reversal from mid-August, when prediction markets indicated an 80-90% probability that monthly downloads would surpass the 120,000-125,000 level.

Since last update (~24h): The model-led probability for "Above 130" rose +14.8pp to 33.6%, significantly widening the edge.
For "Above 125", the model-led probability increased +8.1pp, causing the edge to flip.
The probability for "Above 140" dropped -17.8pp; the market also decreased -18.0pp.
Model-led probability for "Above 135" fell by -12.6pp, resulting in a compressed edge.
Downloads above 110% are expected from 19 consecutive months of app growth.
Downloads above 125% are supported by 16.7% growth in estimated daily rates.
Above 130% appears plausible given strong Q2 GTV and the August 25 app update.

Current Context

Instacart app downloads show growth; prediction markets indicate high probability. The Instacart app recorded over 415,000 downloads on iOS in the 30-day period leading up to August 25, 2026 ^[1]. As of August 2026, the average daily app download rate for Instacart was estimated at 11,667 across iOS and Android, reflecting a 16.7% growth over the preceding three months ^[2]. Prediction markets in mid-August 2026 indicated an 80-90% probability that monthly app downloads would exceed 120,000-125,000, while the probability of exceeding 130,000 was 5% ^[3]. Instacart's SEC filings do not disclose specific monthly app download figures for August 2026 ^[4].

Instacart reported strong Q2 results and raised Q3 guidance. The company (NASDAQ: CART) announced its Q2 2026 financial results on August 6, 2026, for the period ending June 30, 2026 ^[4]. Q2 2026 total revenue was $1,043 million, a 14% increase year-over-year ^[4]. GAAP net income reached $111 million, and Adjusted EBITDA was $313 million, up 19% year-over-year ^[4]. Gross Transaction Value (GTV) for Q2 2026 was $10.35 billion, with Adjusted EBITDA at $313 million ^[5]^[6]^[7]. For Q3 2026, Instacart guided to a GTV of $10.3 billion-$10.55 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $320 million-$340 million ^[5]^[6]^[7]. The company's focus as of August 2026 remains on growth through its Marketplace, Enterprise platform, and AI-driven ad solutions, with a commitment to return the majority of free cash flow to shareholders via share repurchases in 2026 ^[4].

Strategic partnerships and an acquisition marked August for Instacart. Key developments included the release of app version 9.31.1 on August 25, which boosted user ratings by 0.7 stars ^[1]. On August 24, Instacart formed a strategic partnership with Kroger to integrate pharmacy and grocery delivery services ^[1]^[8]. The company also acquired Arpalus, a shelf intelligence firm, on August 31 ^[9].

Sources (9)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 130

📉 August 31, 2026: 82.0pp drop

Price decreased from 99.0% to 17.0%

What happened: The provided research does not support the occurrence of an 82.0 percentage point drop in Instacart app downloads in August 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]. Instead, August 2026 saw several positive developments, including Q2 financial results showing accelerating growth and new partnerships with retailers like Kroger, Costco, and Academy Sports + Outdoors, which would typically indicate increased app usage and engagement ^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]. Therefore, a primary driver for the asserted market movement cannot be identified from the available evidence, and social media activity was irrelevant as the movement itself is not substantiated.

📈 August 30, 2026: 51.0pp spike

Price increased from 48.0% to 99.0%

What happened: The provided web research does not identify a primary driver for a 51.0 percentage point spike in the "Instacart App Downloads in August" prediction market on August 30, 2026. Available data indicates no specific evidence of such a spike linked to social media or other catalysts on that date ^[8]. Furthermore, no publicly available SEC filings or verified news sources confirm a 51.0pp app download spike occurring on August 30, 2026 ^[9]. While Instacart released an app update on August 25, 2026, associated with a Kroger partnership and positive rating increases ^[1], this occurred before the specified date and is not linked to the alleged spike. Therefore, social media was not a primary driver, as the premise of the specific price movement itself lacks supporting evidence in the provided sources.

📈 August 29, 2026: 35.0pp spike

Price increased from 13.0% to 48.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 35.0 percentage point price spike in the "Instacart App Downloads in August" market on August 29, 2026, was likely a misattribution of app performance data ^[10]^[11]^[12]. This spike appears to stem from confusion with the significant surge of the FOMO social trading app in August 2026, which climbed to top US iPhone Finance rankings ^[10]^[11]^[12]. Instacart's own app update and Kroger partnership on August 25, 2026, did not result in a reported download spike of this magnitude, nor do official filings support such a movement ^[1]^[13]^[9]. While FOMO is a social trading app, the available information does not detail specific social media activity directly causing or accelerating this particular Instacart market confusion, suggesting social media was mostly noise in this event.

Outcome: Above 125

📈 August 27, 2026: 38.0pp spike

Price increased from 24.0% to 62.0%

What happened: The 38.0 percentage point spike in the "Instacart App Downloads in August" prediction market on August 27, 2026, was primarily driven by traditional news regarding a significant app update ^[14]^[15]. On August 25, 2026, Instacart released version 9.31.1, which led to a 0.7-star rating increase following backend fixes and an announcement of a partnership with Kroger ^[1]. This positive development, suggesting improved user experience and expanded market reach, likely increased investor confidence in Instacart exceeding 125% year-over-year app downloads ^[1]^[14]. Social media activity cannot be identified as a primary driver or contributing accelerant from the available sources.

📈 August 25, 2026: 13.0pp spike

Price increased from 11.0% to 24.0%

What happened: Social media activity was not a primary driver, as no relevant posts or viral narratives from key figures were identified. The most likely primary driver for the prediction market spike was Instacart's announcement on August 25, 2026, of an exclusive same-day delivery partnership with Petsense by Tractor Supply ^[16]. This traditional news event coincided with the price movement and likely led market participants to anticipate increased app downloads due to the promotional nature of the partnership ^[16]. It is important to note, however, that the 13.0 percentage point spike may reflect broader market volatility rather than a confirmed metric specific to Instacart's app downloads ^[14].

Sources (16)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For the "Above 130" contract, a "Yes" resolution is triggered if Instacart App Downloads for August 2026 exceed 130. Conversely, a "No" resolution is triggered if the downloads are 130 or fewer. The market covers app download data specifically for August 2026, with the maximum payout scheduled for September 6, 2026. No special settlement conditions are specified.

Market Discussion

Instacart's app maintained an average download rate of approximately 11,667 per day across iOS and Android in August 2026 ^[1], with an August 25, 2026, app update resulting in a 0.7-star rating increase ^[2]. The company announced strong Q2 2026 financial results on August 6, 2026, which contributed to bullish market sentiment and high probabilities in prediction markets for increased app downloads ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]. As of September 1, 2026, no specific total app download counts for August 2026 have been publicly disclosed in official filings or by experts ^[10].

Sources (10)

5. Trader Dashboard

Trust profile

Event quality70

Healthy

6. How did Instacart's strategic moves in late August 2026—specifically the Kroger partnership and Arpalus acquisition—impact app download velocity?

Kroger Joint Service Launch	August 24, 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Arpalus Acquisition Focus	Internal enhancements ^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]
Predicted August 2026 App Download Performance	76-97% confidence of positive year-over-year ^[8]

Instacart implemented two distinct strategic initiatives in late August 2026. On August 24, 2026, the company launched a consumer-facing joint service with The Kroger Co., allowing customers to order groceries and eligible prescriptions in a single transaction across nearly all Kroger banners nationwide via the Instacart platform ^[1]^[2]^[3]. This partnership was designed to integrate shopping for both groceries and medications ^[1]^[2]^[3]. In contrast, Instacart's acquisition of Arpalus, a computer vision and shelf-intelligence company, was primarily focused on internal enhancements, aiming to improve fulfillment accuracy, inventory management, and in-store AI capabilities, rather than being a direct consumer-facing feature intended to increase app downloads ^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7].

Instacart's app download performance for August 2026 showed positive market sentiment. As of September 1, 2026, prediction markets indicated a high confidence level of approximately 76-97% that Instacart's year-over-year app download performance for August 2026 would be positive ^[8]. However, the provided information does not contain specific details on how either the Kroger partnership or the Arpalus acquisition individually impacted Instacart's app download velocity for that period.

Sources (8)

7. What do leading app intelligence platforms project for Instacart's daily download rate and growth trajectory through August 2026?

Probability downloads > 120% YoY	90% (Kalshi) ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Probability downloads > 125% YoY	80% (Kalshi) ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Consecutive months of app download growth	19 months (AltIndex) ^[3]

While leading app intelligence platforms do not explicitly project Instacart's daily download rate for August 2026, prediction markets indicate strong growth. Kalshi's prediction markets, for instance, show a 90% probability that Instacart's app downloads for August 2026 will be "Above 120," signifying 120% of the prior year's volume. Additionally, there is an 80% probability for downloads to be "Above 125" ^[1]^[2]^[3].

Consistent growth trends and financial forecasts support this positive outlook. Alternative data providers like AltIndex corroborate this optimistic market sentiment, confirming a consistent positive growth trajectory for Instacart's app. The company has demonstrated sustained upward momentum, not experiencing a down month in app download growth for 19 consecutive months leading up to August 2026 ^[3]. This is further reinforced by Instacart's official financial report for Q3 2026, which projects a 14% year-over-year growth in Gross Transaction Value (GTV) at the midpoint, signaling continued consumer demand ^[4]^[5].

Sources (5)

8. How did Instacart's app download growth in August 2026 compare to that of its primary competitors, DoorDash and Uber Eats?

Instacart app index growth (Aug 2026)	97% probability index above 100 (Kalshi prediction market) ^[1]
Instacart app download growth rate (Aug 2026)	Not quantifiable from available data ^[2]^[3]
DoorDash & Uber Eats app download growth rate (Aug 2026)	Not quantifiable from available data ^[2]^[3]

A direct comparison of Instacart's, DoorDash's, and Uber Eats' app download growth rates for August 2026 cannot be made from the provided research ^[2]^[3]. The available dataset lacks quantifiable, source-cited app download growth rates for these companies specifically for that period, and comparative third-party searches did not yield a recent report detailing such figures ^[2]^[3]. Furthermore, the expert-curated sources provided do not contain publicly available data regarding app download growth for these companies specifically for August 2026 ^[4]^[5]. Thus, the available information explicitly states it is not possible to quantify or retrieve app download metrics for this period with the given environment data ^[2]^[3].

Prediction markets and sales growth do not provide suitable app download metrics for comparison. A Kalshi prediction market indicated a 97% probability of Instacart's app index being above 100 in August 2026, suggesting year-over-year growth ^[1]. However, this does not provide a quantifiable app download growth rate suitable for direct comparison with competitors ^[1]. Separately, Instacart, DoorDash, and Uber Eats all reported strong sales growth in their quarterly results during August 2026, reflecting continued consumer demand across their respective delivery segments ^[6]^[7]. It is important to note that these figures pertain to sales performance, not app download growth ^[6]^[7].

Sources (7)

9. Which data sources and methodologies are considered authoritative for determining final monthly app download counts for publicly traded companies like Instacart?

Authoritative iOS App Downloads	Apple App Store Connect/App Store Analytics App Downloads report ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]
Authoritative Android App Downloads	Google Play Console monthly install-related reports ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]
Prediction Market Authoritative Source	Carbon Arc (for Kalshi market on Instacart app downloads) ^[7]

Store-native reports are definitive for app download counts. For publicly traded companies such as Instacart, the most authoritative data sources for determining final monthly app download counts are the internal reports provided directly by Apple App Store Connect for iOS and Google Play Console for Android ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]. Apple App Store Connect's App Store Analytics App Downloads report furnishes canonical monthly counts for iOS, which include redownloads, after Apple has aggregated its data ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]. Correspondingly, the Google Play Console's monthly install-related reports offer finalized data on metrics like users, devices, and install events, serving as the canonical source for Android ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]. It is important to note that publicly traded companies' standard SEC financial filings typically do not report definitive app download counts ^[8]^[9]^[10]^[11].

Third-party platforms offer estimations, while markets define their sources. Mobile market intelligence platforms, including Sensor Tower, Appfigures, ASOMobile, and AppFollow, provide estimated download data by utilizing proprietary algorithms, global consumer panels, and app store API metrics ^[8]^[9]^[10]^[12]^[11]^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]. These platforms are valuable for external benchmarking and comparative analysis, but they are not considered canonical ledgers for official counts ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]. In unique contexts such as prediction markets, like the Kalshi market for Instacart's August 2026 app downloads, the authoritative data source is explicitly outlined by the market's contractual rules, which in this instance relies on a data provider called 'Carbon Arc' ^[7]. Instacart's provided Q2 2026 earnings call transcript excerpts do not disclose a specific methodology for measuring app installs or downloads ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6].

Sources (12)

10. What was the measurable impact of the August 25 app update (v9.31.1) on Instacart's user ratings and organic download conversion rates?

App update release date	August 25, 2026 ^[1]
App rating increase	0.7 stars ^[1]
New average app rating	3.66 stars ^[1]

Instacart's app update significantly boosted user ratings in late August. The v9.31.1 app update, released on August 25, 2026, led to a measurable increase in Instacart's average app rating. The rating improved by 0.7 stars, moving from 2.96 to 3.66 stars ^[1]. This positive change was attributed to backend fixes and a beneficial halo effect from a significant Kroger partnership announcement on August 24, rather than the introduction of new user-facing features ^[1].

App downloads did not show a direct impact from the update. Despite the increase in app ratings, there were no specific reports detailing a measurable impact on organic download conversion rates directly attributable to the v9.31.1 update itself ^[1]. The Kalshi prediction market for "Instacart App Downloads in August" (2026) monitors year-over-year performance against a baseline of 100, with values above 100 indicating growth ^[2].

Sources (2)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Instacart reported Q2 2026 gross transaction value (GTV) of $10.351 billion, marking a 14% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $313 million, up 19% year-over-year ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. Q2 orders rose 9% to 90.3 million, and revenue increased 14% to $1.043 billion. For Q3 2026, the company guided GTV to $10.3–$10.55 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $320–$340 million ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. In the 30 days preceding August 25, 2026, the Instacart app recorded over 415,000 iOS downloads in the United States ^[5]. As of August 2026, the estimated daily download volume for Instacart across iOS and Android was approximately 11,667, showing 16.7% growth over the prior three months ^[6]. Prediction markets in early August 2026 indicated a 90% probability that August 2026 Instacart app downloads would exceed 120,000 ^[7]. However, Instacart had not publicly disclosed specific app download figures for August 2026 as of September 1, 2026 ^[8]. Sensor Tower's public app profile showed "Downloads... Last Month 500K" for Instacart, but the page text did not explicitly confirm "Last Month" as August 2026 ^[9]^[10]^[11]^[12]^[13]^[14].

Instacart's business strategy focuses on expanding enterprise partnerships, such as Storefront Pro and fulfillment solutions, and enhancing its retail media network, Carrot Ads ^[8]^[15]. The company also develops AI-driven conversational shopping tools, including Cart Assistant and Claude integration ^[8]^[15]^[16]. Recent partnerships announced in late August 2026, which could drive app engagement, include same-day delivery for Academy Sports + Outdoors, on-demand delivery for Foot Locker, Kids Foot Locker, and Champs Sports with a promotion through August 24, 2026, and an exclusive same-day delivery partnership with Petsense by Tractor Supply through September 30, 2026 ^[16]^[9]^[10]^[11]^[12]^[13]^[14]. Additionally, Costco custom cakes and party platters became available for nationwide delivery, and Kroger enabled combined grocery and eligible prescription orders via Instacart ^[3]^[7]^[17]^[9]^[10]^[11]^[12]^[13]^[14]. Bullish catalysts cited include strong growth in advertising and enterprise segments, share buybacks, and expansion into non-grocery retail ^[17]^[18]. Bearish concerns encompass FTC fee scrutiny, margin pressure from advertising costs, and intense competition ^[17].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Expiration: September 14, 2026
Closes: September 07, 2026

Sources (18)

12. Keep Exploring

IPO Tracker Companies preparing to go public, with the market's view on timing. More App Downloads markets See more app downloads setups in the same theme. Browse all Financials markets Keep exploring adjacent financials markets. Track this in the app Open the live app flow and keep following this market in real time.

13. Related News

-82.0pp Published: September 1, 2026

Last updated: September 1, 2026, 12:12 UTC

Weak July Data Slashes Instacart's High-End Growth Odds for August

A report showing a steep year-over-year decline in Instacart app downloads for July 2026 triggered a sharp repricing in prediction markets on Monday, with traders scaling back expectations for a high-...

Instacart App Downloads in August

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

Outcome: Above 130

📉 August 31, 2026: 82.0pp drop

📈 August 30, 2026: 51.0pp spike

📈 August 29, 2026: 35.0pp spike

Outcome: Above 125

📈 August 27, 2026: 38.0pp spike

📈 August 25, 2026: 13.0pp spike

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Market Discussion

5. Trader Dashboard

6. How did Instacart's strategic moves in late August 2026—specifically the Kroger partnership and Arpalus acquisition—impact app download velocity?

7. What do leading app intelligence platforms project for Instacart's daily download rate and growth trajectory through August 2026?

8. How did Instacart's app download growth in August 2026 compare to that of its primary competitors, DoorDash and Uber Eats?

9. Which data sources and methodologies are considered authoritative for determining final monthly app download counts for publicly traded companies like Instacart?

10. What was the measurable impact of the August 25 app update (v9.31.1) on Instacart's user ratings and organic download conversion rates?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

13. Related News

Weak July Data Slashes Instacart's High-End Growth Odds for August

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome: Above 130

📉 August 31, 2026: 82.0pp drop

📈 August 30, 2026: 51.0pp spike

📈 August 29, 2026: 35.0pp spike

Outcome: Above 125

📈 August 27, 2026: 38.0pp spike

📈 August 25, 2026: 13.0pp spike

Contract Snapshot

Market Discussion

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

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Weak July Data Slashes Instacart's High-End Growth Odds for August

Prediction Markets

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Developers

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