Short Answer

Ulta's September 2026 credit card spend is likely to be above 94, driven by strong Q2 comparable sales growth, raised full-year guidance, and the "21+ Days of Beauty" promotion (priced at 95.0%).

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

A sales promotion at Ulta appears to be the primary driver behind this market's sharpest upward move. On October 4, the contract price jumped 13.0 percentage points after Ulta announced an app-exclusive event with discounts, bonus points, and free shipping. This promotion likely caused traders to price in a higher probability of increased September credit card expenditure.

The move followed a 9.0 percentage point gain on October 3, which coincided with news that Ulta was expanding in-store distribution for two brands, Wavytalk and Flower Knows. These catalysts built on a positive fundamental backdrop. In its Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings report, Ulta raised its full-year guidance, projecting net sales growth between 6.7% and 7.2% and comparable-sales growth from 3.2% to 3.7%.

Ulta spend appears likely above 98, supported by strong Q2 comparable sales growth.
September spend likely exceeds 102, driven by the "21+ Days of Beauty" promotion.

Current Context

Ulta's recent financials show positive trends and raised guidance. For Q2 fiscal 2026, which ended August 1, 2026, Ulta Beauty announced increased FY2026 guidance, projecting net sales growth of 6.7%-7.2%, comparable-sales growth of 3.2%-3.7%, operating-income growth of 8.3%-9.3%, and diluted EPS of $28.70-$29.00 ^[1]^[2]. The company’s SEC filing indicates that net sales comprise revenue from stores, e-commerce, salons, and other sources, with private-label and co-branded credit-card programs included in "other revenue" ^[3]. However, the filing does not report a specific September 2026 card-spend figure ^[3]. A September 30, 2026 analysis suggested more conservative second-half FY2026 expectations, implying net-sales growth of 4%-5%, comparable-sales growth of 2%-3%, and operating-profit growth of 6%-8% ^[4]. Q2 comparable sales growth was predominantly driven by a 3.9% increase in average ticket, while transactions remained roughly flat ^[4]. Management commentary emphasized ongoing sales growth, disciplined SG&A, margin improvement, cash flow, and increased shareholder returns, providing a constructive operating backdrop ^[5]^[6].

Prediction market data suggests strong September credit card spend. The prediction market tracks Ulta's September 2026 credit card spend based on Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, indexed year-over-year ^[7]^[8]^[9]^[10]. An index value above 100 signifies growth over the prior year, 100 indicates matched spend, and values below 100 denote a decline ^[7]^[8]^[9]^[10]. As of October 5, 2026, secondary market trackers showed high probabilities for September 2026 Ulta card spend exceeding lower thresholds ^[11]^[9]^[10]. Predxy reported a 91% probability for spend above 102, with an approximate total volume of $4,000, while other trackers indicated probabilities of roughly 97%-98% for the above-90 contract ^[11]^[9]^[10]. These figures are market-implied probabilities, not confirmed financial results ^[11]^[9]^[10].

Prediction market timing differs from Ulta's official financial reporting. The prediction market is slated to settle on October 7, 2026, based on the initial Carbon Arc value reported ^[7]^[8]^[9]^[10]. Ulta's next official earnings release date providing September-specific financial information has not been established by the cited sources ^[1]^[2]. Consequently, the September card-spend index serves as an alternative high-frequency signal, distinct from GAAP financials ^[1]^[2]^[7].

Sources (11)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 100

📉 October 05, 2026: 18.0pp drop

Price decreased from 94.0% to 76.0%

What happened: The reported 18.0 percentage point drop in the "Ulta Credit Card Spend in September" market for the "Above 100" outcome on October 5, 2026, could not be confirmed by the available research ^[1]. Prediction market pricing on that date instead showed strong confidence that Ulta's September 2026 credit card spend would exceed $100, with contracts for "above 102," "above 94," and "above 90" trading at 91-98% ^[2]^[3]^[4]. No social media activity from key figures or traditional news announcements were identified that would cause the stated decline ^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]^[10]^[11]. Therefore, no primary driver for the reported price movement can be identified, and social media activity appears irrelevant to this unsubstantiated event.

📉 October 02, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 25.0% to 15.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 10.0 percentage point drop in the "Ulta Credit Card Spend in September" prediction market on October 2, 2026, is not clearly evident from the provided research. There is no indication of significant social media activity, such as posts from key figures or viral narratives, that would explain a decline [Web research]. While a low-authority article dated October 2 claimed Ulta's AI drove a double-digit e-commerce increase, this positive news contradicts the observed market price drop ^[12]. Official Ulta filings before October 5 covered Q2 fiscal 2026 (ending August 1), not September, and were generally positive, offering no direct explanation for a September spend decrease ^[13]^[14]^[15]^[16]. Social media activity appears to be mostly irrelevant in driving this particular market movement, as no relevant activity was identified.

Outcome: Above 102

📈 October 04, 2026: 83.0pp spike

Price increased from 8.0% to 91.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 83.0 percentage point spike in the "Ulta Credit Card Spend in September" prediction market on October 4, 2026, appears to be an Ulta promotion coinciding with the market movement ^[2]^[17]. This October 4 promotion included app-exclusive discounts, bonus points, and free shipping for Ulta Rewards Credit Card purchases, directly incentivizing card usage ^[17]. Market participants may have interpreted these aggressive sales initiatives and card-specific benefits as indicators of strong overall customer engagement and momentum, suggesting robust September spend ^[17]. Social media was not a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or significant noise, as no relevant activity was identified in the available information.

Outcome: Above 98

📈 October 03, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 73.0% to 82.0%

What happened: On October 3, 2026, the primary identified catalyst coinciding with the market movement was the news of Ulta Beauty expanding in-store distribution for Wavytalk and Flower Knows, featuring Ulta-exclusive products ^[18]^[19]. This traditional news, emphasizing a differentiated assortment and trend-driven shoppers, could have positively influenced expectations for Ulta's sales and credit card spend ^[18]^[19]. However, the specific "Above 98" outcome and the 9.0 percentage point spike are not directly corroborated by the provided market data, which shows an 83-point rise for the "above 102" contract and a fall for the "above 94" contract ^[3]^[2]^[4]. No specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives was identified as a driver. Social media was irrelevant as a primary driver.

Outcome: Above 96

📈 October 01, 2026: 20.0pp spike

Price increased from 79.0% to 99.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 20.0 percentage point spike in the "Ulta Credit Card Spend in September" market on October 1, 2026, cannot be definitively identified from the available information. There is no evidence of specific social media activity or breaking news directly causing this movement ^[20]^[21]. While Ulta Beauty launched a new Ulta Rewards promotion on October 1, 2026, offering bonus points for purchases, this promotion would primarily impact October spend and not directly the September data that the market was tracking ^[22]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, and no clear news catalyst for this specific price movement was found.

Sources (22)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For this Kalshi prediction market, a "YES" resolution for a contract such as "Above X" triggers if the final reported Ulta Credit Card Spend in September is greater than X. Conversely, a "NO" resolution triggers if the final spend is X or less. Final data is anticipated in October 2026, with a specific maximum payout date of October 6, 2026, for contracts like "Above 104". The market settles once the official final data for September's Ulta Credit Card Spend is released.

Market Discussion

The market tracks Carbon Arc's September 2026 Ulta credit/debit-card spend index, a year-over-year measure where 100 signifies flat spend compared to September 2025 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets indicated high probabilities for the index to be above 90 (98%) and above 94 (95%), with 91% probability for above 102 ^[5]^[6]^[7]. While Carbon Arc publishes Ulta card-spend analytics and Ulta management noted 47 million active loyalty members, the available sources do not establish a direct September spend estimate ^[8]^[9]^[10].

Sources (10)

5. What is the methodology of the Carbon Arc transaction panel, and what are its historical revision patterns for retailers like Ulta?

Data update frequency	Daily ^[1]
Index baseline	100 for flat year-over-year performance ^[1]
Market settlement convention	First reported value for the relevant month ^[1]

Carbon Arc indexes year-over-year transaction performance from daily card data. The Carbon Arc transaction panel compiles aggregated U.S. credit-and-debit-card transaction data, which updates daily, to provide year-over-year comparisons expressed as an index. An index value of 100 signifies flat year-over-year performance, while 103 indicates a 3% increase, and 97 denotes a 3% decrease ^[1].

Full methodology details and Ulta-specific revision patterns remain publicly unavailable. Publicly available evidence does not document the panel's complete methodology, including specifics on sample construction, issuer coverage, weighting, merchant classification, seasonal adjustment, or backfill window ^[1]. For retailers like Ulta, the market's settlement convention uses the initial value Carbon Arc reports for a given month, meaning any corrections or revisions issued after settlement do not alter the original outcome. Publicly searchable archives do not contain retailer-specific data for Ulta showing first-release versus revised values, thus making it impossible to provide a defensible quantitative estimate of Ulta’s historical revision magnitude or direction ^[1].

Sources (1)

1Ulta Credit Card Spend in September - Kalshi noteringen | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

6. How do Ulta's Q2 2026 results and raised FY2026 guidance support the market's high expectations for September's card spend?

Q2 FY2026 Comparable Sales Growth	3.8% ^[1]^[2]^[3]
FY2026 Comparable Sales Growth Outlook	3.2%-3.7% ^[1]^[2]
Implied H2 FY2026 Comparable Sales Growth	2%-3% ^[4]^[5]^[6]

Ulta Beauty's strong Q2 results and raised guidance show robust performance. The company reported robust Q2 fiscal 2026 results, demonstrating an 8.9% year-over-year increase in net sales, reaching $3.036 billion, alongside a 3.8% rise in comparable sales ^[1]^[2]^[3]. This growth was primarily attributed to a higher average ticket, as transaction volumes remained largely flat ^[4]^[5]^[6]. Following this strong performance, Ulta subsequently elevated its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance, now forecasting net-sales growth between 6.7% and 7.2%, and comparable-sales growth in the range of 3.2% to 3.7% ^[1]^[2].

These positive results generally support market expectations for increased September card spend. The favorable Q2 results and the upwardly revised full-year outlook broadly align with the prediction market's anticipation of an above-year-ago September 2026 card spend index ^[1]^[2]^[7]^[8]. Specifically, the updated comparable sales outlook of 3.2% to 3.7% for the full fiscal year provides a constructive prior for future spending trends ^[1]^[2]^[7]^[8].

Support for very high spend readings, however, is tempered by several factors. Nevertheless, the foundation for exceptionally high spend readings, such as an index of 102 or more, appears less robust due to several considerations ^[2]^[5]^[6]^[8]. The increased full-year guidance suggests a more conservative outlook for the second half of fiscal 2026, projecting comparable-sales growth of only 2% to 3% ^[4]^[5]^[6]. Moreover, Q2 transactions saw no growth, and Ulta's reported comparable sales growth is not directly equivalent to the Carbon Arc card spend index, which specifically measures card-panel spend rather than consolidated company sales, and Q2 growth was predominantly driven by ticket size rather than transaction volume ^[2]^[5]^[6]^[8]^[1]^[7].

Sources (8)

7. What major promotional events from Ulta and its key competitors, like Sephora, likely impacted consumer spending patterns in September 2026?

Ulta 21+ Days of Beauty Event Dates	August 28, 2026, through September 17, 2026 ^[1]
Sephora Competing Event End Date	September 17, 2026 ^[2]
Ulta Daily Deal Discount	50% off ^[1]

Major promotions by Ulta and Sephora significantly influenced consumer spending in September 2026. Ulta Beauty's semi-annual 21+ Days of Beauty event, which ran from August 28 through September 17, 2026, was a primary driver of consumer spending in the early-to-mid part of the month ^[1]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]. During this same period, Sephora conducted a competing 50% off One-Day Deals event, also concluding on September 17, 2026, designed to directly counter Ulta's promotions and capture consumer spending ^[2]^[9]^[10]^[6].

Ulta's 21+ Days of Beauty event notably featured daily 50% off deals on various popular beauty brands ^[1]. Following these major semi-annual sales, retailers continued their promotional activities through late September. For instance, Ulta hosted in-store beauty events on September 26, 2026, and Target launched a Beauty Studio celebration on the same date ^[11]^[8]. These subsequent activities likely helped maintain consumer engagement after the conclusion of the primary sales events ^[11]^[8].

Sources (11)

8. How did Ulta's comparable-sales growth in its most recent quarter compare to that of key beauty retail peers like Sephora and e.l.f. Beauty?

Ulta Beauty Comparable Sales Growth	3.8% (fiscal Q2 2026) ^[1]^[2]
Ulta Beauty Total Net Sales	$3.0 billion (fiscal Q2 2026) ^[1]^[2]
e.l.f. Beauty Organic Sales Growth	approximately 1% (fiscal Q4 2026) ^[3]

Ulta Beauty's recent comparable-sales growth outpaced its key competitors' organic figures. For its most recent quarter, fiscal Q2 2026, Ulta Beauty reported a comparable-sales growth of 3.8% year over year ^[1]^[2]. The company’s total net sales increased 8.9%, reaching approximately $3.0 billion ^[1]^[2]. Directly comparing this performance with key beauty retail peers like Sephora and e.l.f. Beauty is challenging due to differences in reporting metrics and company structures.

Direct comparable-sales data remains unavailable for Ulta's private and acquisition-focused peers. Sephora, as a privately held operating business within LVMH, does not make direct comparable figures publicly available ^[4]. While Sephora reportedly continued to grow, LVMH's broader Selective Retailing segment experienced flat performance in Q1 2025, which means a direct comparable-sales percentage for Sephora in its latest quarter is unestablished by the available sources ^[4]. Similarly, e.l.f. Beauty also does not report a retail-style comparable-sales metric ^[5]. Its fiscal Q1 2027 report indicated a total net sales growth of 35% year over year ^[5]. However, this figure includes significant inorganic growth; e.l.f. Beauty's prior fiscal Q4 2026 report clarified that a similar 35% sales increase included approximately 34 percentage points from the Rhode acquisition, resulting in organic sales growth of about 1% ^[3].

Ulta's comparable-sales growth notably exceeded e.l.f. Beauty's underlying organic growth. While Ulta's 3.8% comparable-sales growth was positive, it was substantially below e.l.f. Beauty's headline revenue growth of 35% ^[1]^[2]^[5]. However, Ulta's underlying store-sales performance was stronger than e.l.f. Beauty's latest disclosed organic growth, which was approximately 1% ^[1]^[2]^[5]^[3].

Sources (5)

9. What do alternative high-frequency spending datasets from providers like Earnest Analytics or Bloomberg Second Measure show for Ulta's September 2026 performance?

Ulta September 2026 Spending Data (Earnest Analytics)	Not found in publicly accessible web results ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Ulta September 2026 Spending Data (Bloomberg Second Measure)	Not found in accessible web results ^[4]^[5]^[1]
Earnest Analytics Consumer Data Coverage	Millions of de-identified U.S. consumers ^[1]

Publicly accessible alternative spending datasets currently lack Ulta-specific September 2026 performance data. Web results for high-frequency spending datasets from providers like Earnest Analytics and Bloomberg Second Measure do not contain a direct Ulta-specific series for September 2026 ^[4]^[5]^[1]. While prediction markets are strongly pricing positive Ulta card spend for September 2026, this constitutes a market signal and not independent confirmation from these data providers ^[6]^[7]^[4]^[5]^[1].

Earnest Analytics provides historical spending trends, but not Ulta-specific 2026 data. Earnest Analytics publishes alternative card/debit spending measures derived from millions of de-identified U.S. consumers. These measures cover thousands of national brands and support online/in-store and geographic breakouts ^[1]. However, the reviewed public search results contain historical methodology and broad category trends from September 2022, September 2023, and September 2024, but no publicly accessible Ulta-specific September 2026 print was found ^[1]^[2]^[3].

Bloomberg Second Measure offers granular consumer spending, yet lacks 2026 Ulta series. This provider delivers daily or near-daily U.S. consumer-spend indicators based on billions of credit/debit transactions from more than 23 million consumers, with products typically delivered on 2-, 3-, or 7-day lags ^[4]^[5]. Nevertheless, no direct September 2026 Ulta series from Bloomberg Second Measure was found in the accessible web results ^[4]^[5]^[1].

Sources (7)

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Prediction-market data as of October 5, 2026, indicates strong bullish sentiment for September 2026 Ulta card spend. Predxy shows a 91% probability of exceeding 102, while Kalshi-linked snapshots suggest a 97–98% probability of exceeding 90/98 ^[1]^[2]^[3]. The market uses Carbon Arc's year-over-year U.S. credit/debit-card spend index, where 100 signifies last year's level ^[1]^[2]^[3]. An early Carbon Arc data-feed reading on September 4, 2026, showed Ulta card spend at 105.3 ^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]. These contracts are expected to settle around October 7, 2026, for Kalshi-linked pages, and October 14, 2026, for Predxy's above-102 contract, based on the first Carbon Arc-reported value ^[1]^[2]^[3].

Ulta's latest reported quarter, ending August 1, 2026, showed net sales up 8.9% to approximately $3.04 billion, comparable sales up 3.8%, operating income up 10.1%, and diluted EPS up 13.3% to $6.55 ^[10]^[11]^[12]. Management subsequently raised fiscal 2026 guidance, projecting 6.7–7.2% net sales growth, 3.2–3.7% comparable sales growth, 8.3–9.3% operating income growth, and $28.70–$29.00 EPS ^[10]^[11]^[12]. Management commentary on September 10, 2026, described beauty as resilient and an affordable luxury, noting average member spending increased across income and age cohorts with no change in consumer shopping behavior entering Q3 ^[13]^[14]^[15]^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9].

Other notable events include a Wells Fargo upgrade on September 15, 2026, moving ULTA from Underweight to Equal-Weight, with a price target increase from $450 to $525 ^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]. The Target partnership exit in mid-August is expected to result in sales recapture as prestige brands return to Ulta's ecosystem ^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]. However, Zacks flagged valuation risk on September 30, noting ULTA trades at 17.6x forward earnings versus 14.3x for its sub-industry, with traffic identified as a key risk ^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]. Ulta's next expected earnings report is December 2, 2026 ^[16]^[17].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Expiration: October 14, 2026
Closes: October 07, 2026

Sources (17)

11. Keep Exploring

IPO Tracker Companies preparing to go public, with the market's view on timing. More Credit Card Spend markets See more credit card spend setups in the same theme. Browse all Financials markets Keep exploring adjacent financials markets. Track this in the app Open the live app flow and keep following this market in real time.

Recent resolutions:

KXULTACC-26SEP07-T98: YES (Sep 05, 2026)
KXULTACC-26SEP07-T95: YES (Sep 05, 2026)
KXULTACC-26SEP07-T92.5: YES (Sep 05, 2026)
KXULTACC-26SEP07-T103.5: NO (Sep 05, 2026)
KXULTACC-26SEP07-T101: NO (Sep 05, 2026)

Ulta Credit Card Spend in September

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

Outcome: Above 100

📉 October 05, 2026: 18.0pp drop

📉 October 02, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Outcome: Above 102

📈 October 04, 2026: 83.0pp spike

Outcome: Above 98

📈 October 03, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Outcome: Above 96

📈 October 01, 2026: 20.0pp spike

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Market Discussion

5. What is the methodology of the Carbon Arc transaction panel, and what are its historical revision patterns for retailers like Ulta?

6. How do Ulta's Q2 2026 results and raised FY2026 guidance support the market's high expectations for September's card spend?

7. What major promotional events from Ulta and its key competitors, like Sephora, likely impacted consumer spending patterns in September 2026?

8. How did Ulta's comparable-sales growth in its most recent quarter compare to that of key beauty retail peers like Sephora and e.l.f. Beauty?

9. What do alternative high-frequency spending datasets from providers like Earnest Analytics or Bloomberg Second Measure show for Ulta's September 2026 performance?

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

12. Related News

Strong Guidance, September Sales Lift Ulta Card Spend Bets

13. Historical Resolutions

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome: Above 100

📉 October 05, 2026: 18.0pp drop

📉 October 02, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Outcome: Above 102

📈 October 04, 2026: 83.0pp spike

Outcome: Above 98

📈 October 03, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Outcome: Above 96

📈 October 01, 2026: 20.0pp spike

Contract Snapshot

Market Discussion

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

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Strong Guidance, September Sales Lift Ulta Card Spend Bets

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