5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 31, 2026?
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for the 5Y US Treasury yield to be 4.31% or above on August 31, 2026, at 94.9% model vs 83.0% market. This suggests the model has stronger conviction that the yield will remain at or above current levels, which stood at 4.42% on August 28, 2026.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's 55 percentage point spike to 80% on August 28 was a direct repricing based on the underlying instrument's behavior near resolution. On that day, the market yield on 5-year U.S. Treasury securities was reported to be approximately 4.41% to 4.42%, up from 4.37% the prior day. This move aligned the actual yield with consensus forecasts for August 2026 and, with only three days until settlement, crystallized the high probability of a "YES" outcome. The move was accompanied by trading volume of 100 contracts, indicating conviction.
An earlier 14 percentage point drop on August 25 lacks a clear catalyst in the available information. No specific market event or news development has been identified that corresponds with this move. The broader financial market sentiment at the time held a slight hiking bias, but with low expectations for any immediate Federal Reserve action.
- The 5-year Treasury yield is expected above 4.33%, aligning with major bank forecasts.
- Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech is a key catalyst on August 28.
- Stronger August 2026 jobs/CPI reports could push yields above 4.45%.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.43% or above | 80.0% | 79.4% | The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently 4.42%, aligning with market consensus for August 2026. |
| 4.33% or above | 95.0% | 94.9% | The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently 4.42%, aligning with market consensus for August 2026. |
| 4.41% or above | 82.0% | 81.5% | The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently 4.42%, aligning with market consensus for August 2026. |
| 4.31% or above | 83.0% | 94.9% | The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently 4.42%, aligning with market consensus for August 2026. |
| 4.45% or above | 62.0% | 60.8% | The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently 4.42%, aligning with market consensus for August 2026. |
Current Context
The 5-year US Treasury yield holds near 4.4% in late August. As of August 28, 2026, the market yield on 5-year U.S. Treasury securities was approximately 4.41% to 4.42% [^][^]. This follows a reported yield of 4.37% on August 27, 2026 [^]. Market consensus models forecast the 5-year Treasury yield to be approximately 4.41% for August 2026 [^].
Market sentiment indicates a slight hiking bias, but immediate Fed hikes are unlikely. Financial market sentiment in late August 2026 shows a slight 'hiking bias' among professional forecasters [^][^]. Markets are closely monitoring upcoming payroll and CPI data for policy reinforcement [^][^]. Despite some market speculation about future interest rate paths, recent expert commentary, including analysis from the Jackson Hole Symposium, suggests the Federal Reserve is not expected to implement immediate rate hikes [^][^]. There is no publicly available expert-consensus or official Federal Reserve forecast for the specific 5-year Treasury yield on August 31, 2026, given its immediacy [^]. Market expectations for interest rates are generally gauged using tools such as the CME FedWatch, which estimates FOMC target rate change probabilities from 30-day federal funds futures, rather than providing direct price forecasts for intermediate Treasury maturities like the 5-year note [^][^][^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 4.41% or above
📈 August 28, 2026: 57.0pp spike
Price increased from 25.0% to 82.0%
What happened: The reported "57.0 percentage point spike" in the prediction market for the "5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 31, 2026?" appears to be a misattributed or unrelated figure, as this magnitude of movement is typically cited for distinct, non-financial prediction market events [^][^]. Therefore, there is no evidence that such a price movement occurred in this specific market on August 28, 2026, precluding the identification of a primary driver. Without a confirmed price movement, social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors cannot be definitively linked as causal elements [^][^].
Outcome: 4.45% or above
📉 August 25, 2026: 31.0pp drop
Price decreased from 41.0% to 10.0%
What happened:
There is no evidence in the provided web research of social media activity, traditional news, or specific market events on August 25, 2026, that would serve as the primary driver for a 31.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for the 5Y US Treasury yield being "4.45% or above" [^]. On the date of the market movement, the 5Y US Treasury yield was 4.35%, already below the 4.45% threshold [^]. While discussions around Fed policy and Treasury markets appear in the search results, no specific announcement or influential post from August 25, 2026, is identified.
Social media was not a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or identifiable noise based on the provided information.
Outcome: 4.49% or above
📉 August 16, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 31.0% to 20.0%
What happened: The available web research does not provide a primary driver for the 11.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for the 5Y US Treasury yield on August 16, 2026. Specifically, there are no social media posts from influential figures, viral narratives, or breaking news announcements explicitly dated to or immediately preceding August 16, 2026, among the provided sources. While some sources discuss general trends in US Treasury markets and Federal Reserve actions, they lack the precise dating needed to establish a causal link to the market movement [^][^][^]. Consequently, based solely on the provided information, social media's role as a primary driver, accelerant, or even noise cannot be assessed for this specific event.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves to "Yes" if the 5-year US Treasury yield is 4.45% or above on the specified Monday. Conversely, it resolves to "No" if the 5-year US Treasury yield is below 4.45% on that same Monday. The maximum payout date for this market is August 31, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.33% or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 95% |
| 4.39% or above | $1.00 | $0.04 | 90% |
| 4.35% or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 89% |
| 4.37% or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 85% |
| 4.31% or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 83% |
| 4.41% or above | $0.96 | $0.11 | 82% |
| 4.43% or above | $0.85 | $0.22 | 80% |
| 4.45% or above | $0.68 | $0.39 | 62% |
| 4.47% or above | $0.29 | $0.79 | 21% |
| 4.49% or above | $0.19 | $0.89 | 21% |
| 4.59% or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 19% |
| 4.51% or above | $0.14 | $0.93 | 9% |
| 4.53% or above | $0.14 | $1.00 | 7% |
| 4.55% or above | $0.14 | $1.00 | 2% |
| 4.57% or above | $0.10 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
As of August 28, 2026, the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield was approximately 4.42%, continuing a slight rise from 4.37% on August 26, 2026 [^]. Economic forecasting models estimate the yield for August 2026 to be between 4.38% and 4.41% [^], with prediction markets on August 21, 2026, indicating a 66% probability of it being at or above 4.31% on August 31, 2026 [^].
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
4.43% or abovePrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality77Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality77Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
4.31% or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
- Metric
- —
4.33% or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 2.05
4.35% or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 1.56
4.37% or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 1.25
4.39% or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality72Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality72Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
4.41% or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality76Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality76Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
4.45% or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality74Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality74Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
4.47% or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality75Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality75Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
4.49% or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality73Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality73Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
4.51% or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality68Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality68Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
4.53% or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
- Metric
- —
4.55% or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
- Metric
- —
4.57% or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
- Metric
- —
4.59% or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
- Metric
- —
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 28, 2026
6. What specific outcomes in the upcoming August 2026 jobs and CPI reports would most likely push the 5-year Treasury yield above 4.45%?
| Target Yield Threshold | Above 4.45% [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Current 5-year US Treasury Yield | 4.37% (as of August 26, 2026) [^][^] |
| August 2026 Yield Range | 4.32%–4.45% [^][^] |
Stronger August 2026 reports would push 5-year Treasury yields above 4.45%. The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield is projected to surpass 4.45% if the upcoming August 2026 jobs and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports indicate stronger-than-expected economic trends, thereby reversing recent 'soft' economic indicators [^][^][^]. Specifically, hotter-than-expected payrolls or CPI prints are the most likely triggers. As of August 26, 2026, the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 4.37%, having traded within a range of 4.32% to 4.45% throughout August 2026 [^][^]. The broader market has recently fluctuated between 3.6% and 4.4% [^].
Robust economic reports compel markets to re-price higher interest rate expectations. Outcomes such as stronger-than-expected payrolls, which would reverse the July decline, or hotter-than-expected CPI prints, which would reverse the cooling trend, would compel the market to re-price higher interest rate expectations, despite current Federal Reserve neutrality [^][^][^]. Historical analysis by the New York Fed confirms that nonfarm payroll employment and core CPI announcements significantly impact Treasury yields, with intermediate maturities like the 5-year showing strong sensitivity to these surprises [^][^][^][^]. Specifically, stronger nonfarm payrolls and employment figures, as well as higher producer price pressures, typically exert upward pressure on Treasury yields [^][^][^][^].
Beyond economic reports, several factors contribute to upward pressure on Treasury yields. Upward pressure on Treasury yields is also driven by concerns over large fiscal deficits, persistent inflation, and heavy Treasury issuance [^][^]. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential foreign central bank sales of U.S. Treasuries are additional factors cited as capable of creating upward pressure on longer-term yields [^][^].
7. What underlying economic data and Federal Reserve signals are leading major banks to forecast a 5-year Treasury yield around 4.41% for August 2026?
| 5-year Treasury Yield Forecast (Aug 2026) | Around 4.41% [^][^] |
|---|---|
| 5-year US Treasury Yield (Aug 28, 2026) | 4.42% [^][^] |
| Q2 2026 Real GDP Growth Rate | 1.5% annualized [^] |
Major banks predict the 5-year Treasury yield at 4.41% for August 2026. This projection is made by major banks, considering current economic data and Federal Reserve signals [^][^]. As of late August 2026, the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield was observed at 4.42% on August 28 and 4.37% on August 26, exhibiting fluctuations between 4.35% and 4.43% during this period [^][^]. Prediction markets on Kalshi also indicated a 66% probability of the 5-year Treasury yield being 4.31% or above by August 31, 2026 [^][^][^].
Economic data and Federal Reserve signals drive yield curve expectations. Current economic indicators influencing these yields include an annualized real GDP growth rate of 1.5% in Q2 2026 [^] and elevated inflation, with the PCE price index increasing 5.3% in Q2 [^]. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, including guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and a recent adjustment in projected rate hikes or cuts from two to three down to two, plays a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and the yield curve [^][^][^][^].
Additional factors and broader yield curve dynamics also affect forecasts. Other influences on Treasury yields include persistent U.S. fiscal deficits, the ongoing US-Iran war, and Treasury buyback programs [^][^]. The Cleveland Fed reported an August 2026 10-year Treasury yield of 4.70% and a 3-month yield of 3.87%, creating a yield spread of approximately 83 basis points, which is continuously monitored for potential recession signals [^].
8. How do the recent movements of the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields in August 2026 compare, and what does the resulting yield curve shape signal for the 5-year yield?
| 2-year Treasury Yield | 4.19% (as of August 27, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| 10-year Treasury Yield | 4.66% (as of August 27, 2026) [^] |
| Yield Curve Spread | Approximately 47 basis points [^] |
Treasury yields reflect an upward-sloping curve, indicating growth. As of August 27, 2026, the 2-year Treasury yield stood at 4.19%, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.66%, resulting in an approximate spread of 47 basis points [^]. This upward-sloping yield curve generally signals market expectations for economic growth and normal compensation for duration risk [^][^].
Both yields experienced recent volatility; the 5-year yield maintains normal slope. Throughout late August, both the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields showed fluctuations; the 2-year yield ranged between 4.17% and 4.24%, and the 10-year yield moved between 4.64% and 4.74% in the last week [^][^][^]. The 5-year Treasury yield, recorded at 4.37% on August 26, 2026, reinforces a normal, positively sloped yield curve across the 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year tenors [^]. This positive spread contrasts with historically inverted yield curves, which have often preceded economic recessions [^][^]. Furthermore, a Kalshi prediction market on August 21, 2026, estimated a 66% probability that the 5-year Treasury par yield would exceed 4.31% by August 31, 2026 [^][^][^].
9. What are the primary data sources, such as TIPS breakeven rates and Fed Funds Futures, that traders are using to model the 5-year Treasury yield in late August 2026?
| Macroeconomic Inputs | CPI, payroll reports, and other output/income metrics [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Term Structure Indicators | Nominal Treasury zero-coupon yields, real yields from 5-year TIPS, 5-year breakeven inflation rate [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Policy Expectations | Federal Funds rate paths and term premiums, Federal funds futures observed and traded [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
Traders model 5-year Treasury yields using macroeconomic data and term structure indicators. Traders modeling the 5-year Treasury yield in late August 2026 primarily utilize a combination of macroeconomic data and term structure indicators. Key macroeconomic inputs include the Consumer Price Index (CPI), payroll reports, and various output and income metrics, which collectively offer insights into the broader economic environment. Additionally, term structure indicators such as nominal Treasury zero-coupon yields, real yields derived from 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), and inflation compensation measures like the 5-year breakeven inflation rate are employed in their analyses [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Policy expectations, especially Fed actions, critically influence Treasury yields. Policy expectations are assessed using Federal Funds rate paths and term premiums, which help decompose nominal yields. Federal funds futures are closely monitored and traded, providing market expectations for future short-term interest rates [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve, particularly adjustments to short-term interest rates in response to inflation data and labor market conditions, are identified as critical drivers for broader Treasury yield movements in late 2025 and 2026 [^][^].
10. How does the 5-year Treasury yield's behavior in August 2026 align with historical patterns observed during prior periods of Federal Reserve policy uncertainty?
| 5-year US Treasury yield (August 2026) | Approximately 4.39% [^][^] |
|---|---|
| 5-year US Treasury yield (Aug 26, 2026) | 4.37% [^] |
| Probability of yield > 4.30% (Aug 31, 2026) | 66% [^][^][^] |
The 5-year Treasury yield remained elevated in August 2026. The 5-year US Treasury yield traded at approximately 4.39% during this period, primarily driven by persistent inflation concerns and Federal Reserve policy uncertainty following the removal of forward guidance [^][^]. Throughout August 2026, the yield consistently hovered between 4.35% and 4.43%, reaching 4.37% by August 26 [^][^]. Market sentiment, as indicated by CME FedWatch, shifted to anticipate a single rate hike for the remainder of the year due to inflation control, a change from earlier expectations for rate cuts [^]. Furthermore, prediction markets on Kalshi assigned a 66% probability that the 5-year US Treasury yield would be above 4.30% by August 31, 2026 [^][^][^].
Historical patterns differ from August 2026's observed yield behavior. Typically, during periods characterized by high monetary policy uncertainty, Treasury yields tend to exhibit a muted response to policy shocks; long-end yields have sometimes remained flat or even declined, a phenomenon referred to as "uncertainty-induced" decoupling [^][^][^]. While August 2026 was marked by Federal Reserve policy uncertainty [^][^][^], the available research does not explicitly detail how the observed elevated levels of the 5-year Treasury yield directly align with or illustrate this historical pattern of a muted response or decline in yields during times of policy shocks or tightening [^][^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The primary market catalyst on August 28, 2026, is the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole economic symposium [^] [^] [^] [^] . Markets are seeking clarity on the Fed's reaction function, inflation outlook, and interest rate path [^][^][^][^]. As of August 28, 2026, the 5-Year US Treasury note yield was reported at 4.41% to 4.42% [^]. The 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity rate has shown recent volatility, recording 4.35 percent on August 25, 2026, and 4.37 percent on August 26, 2026 [^][^].
Bullish and bearish sentiment is driven by debates over whether long-term bond yields are already providing sufficient tightening, concerns over US Treasury debt buybacks by the Treasury Department, sticky inflation data, and potential future interest rate hikes [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . The CME FedWatch tool provides market-implied probabilities for Federal Reserve policy decisions based on 30-Day Fed Funds futures, which influence broader interest rate expectations and Treasury yields [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: August 31, 2026
- Expiration: September 02, 2026
- Closes: August 31, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The primary market catalyst on August 28, 2026, is the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole economic symposium [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Markets are seeking clarity on the Fed's reaction function, inflation outlook, and interest rate path [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: As of August 28, 2026, the 5-Year US Treasury note yield was reported at 4.41% to 4.42% [^] .
- Trigger: The 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity rate has shown recent volatility, recording 4.35 percent on August 25, 2026, and 4.37 percent on August 26, 2026 [^] [^] .
14. Related News
15. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 19 markets in this series
Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.89: NO (Jul 31, 2026)
- KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.84: NO (Jul 31, 2026)
- KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.79: NO (Jul 31, 2026)
- KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.74: NO (Jul 31, 2026)
- KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.69: NO (Jul 31, 2026)
