How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?
Short Answer
The 30-year US Treasury yield is not expected to fall to 5.23% or below by November 30, 2026, despite having already reached 5.24% or below on November 5, 2026. This outlook stems from rising yields, Federal Reserve hawkishness, and substantial projected Treasury debt issuance, with the market pricing this outcome at 14.0%, diverging from the model's 57.7%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's probability of the 30-year Treasury yield falling to 5.37% or lower collapsed due to a sharp reversal in interest rate expectations around November 13. Reports from that time indicated Treasury yields were rising as traders increased bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes. This shift in sentiment directly counters the conditions needed for yields to reach new lows, causing the contract's price to fall from a high of 58% on November 7 to 1% by November 13.
The earlier, higher probabilities reflected a different market narrative. The climb to 58% was consistent with forecasts that the minimum 30-year yield would fall into a 5.25% to 5.35% range before expiration. Such a floor would all but guarantee a drop below the 5.37% threshold. The subsequent news of strengthening Fed rate hike bets appears to have entirely invalidated this prior consensus, leading to the dramatic repricing.
- The 30-year yield has already reached 5.24% or below by November 5, 2026.
- Federal Reserve hawkishness and projected debt issuance challenge further significant declines.
- Prediction market distributions lean towards a high-5.2s to mid-5.3s outcome.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.16% or below | 1.0% | 35.9% | Rising yields, Federal Reserve hawkishness, and substantial debt issuance limit lower thresholds. |
| 5.07% or below | 5.0% | 2.9% | Rising yields, Federal Reserve hawkishness, and substantial Treasury debt issuance diminish likelihood of lower thresholds. |
| 5.2% or below | 6.0% | 35.9% | Rising yields, Federal Reserve hawkishness, and substantial debt issuance limit lower thresholds. |
| 5.19% or below | 2.0% | 35.9% | Rising yields, Federal Reserve hawkishness, and substantial debt issuance limit lower thresholds. |
| 5.13% or below | 1.0% | 25.6% | Rising yields, Federal Reserve hawkishness, and substantial Treasury debt issuance diminish likelihood of lower thresholds. |
Current Context
Minimum 30-year Treasury yield expected around 5.30% by November 2026. The practical point estimate for the minimum 30-year Treasury yield through November 30, 2026 is approximately 5.30%, with a plausible range of 5.25%–5.35% [1][2][3][4][5]. A decline to 5.24% or lower would require roughly a 22-basis-point drop from the November 13 level near 5.46%; prediction-market probability for this scenario was about 10% [1][5]. A fall below 5.20% appears materially less likely without a sharp risk-off event, weak economic data, or a major disinflationary surprise; the market assigned an 83% probability to 5.16% or above for November 30 [6][4].
Near-term risks indicate upward pressure on Treasury yields. The dominant near-term risk remains higher rather than lower yields [1][7]. CNBC reported nearly 87% odds of a 25-basis-point December Fed hike [1]. Concurrently, the latest 30-year auction's bid-to-cover ratio declined to 2.36 from 2.54, and October's federal deficit reached $404 billion [1][7]. Principal scheduled catalysts before November 30 include retail sales on November 17, FOMC minutes on November 18, and a 2-year Treasury auction on November 23 [4][8]. Prediction-market settlement is November 30 [4].
Sources (9)
- 1Treasury yields rise as traders strengthen Fed rate hike betscnbc.com
- 2Monthly Fixed Income Monitor - November 2026nationalbank.com
- 330 Year U.S. Treasury Bond Rate Forecastforecasts.org
- 430Y US Treasury yield on Nov 30, 2026? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 5Rates forecasts & analysis | PropBetEdge Prediction Intelligencepredictions.propbetedge.ai
- 6Will 30-Year US Treasury Yields Climb Higher? | Goldman Sachsgoldmansachs.com
- 7US bond market cracks resurface as higher for longer fears return to haunt Wall Streetinvestinglive.com
- 830Y Yield (^TYX) Prediction Markets: Odds & Outlook | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 9How high will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 5.23% or below
📉 November 13, 2026: 57.0pp drop
Price decreased from 71.0% to 14.0%
What happened: The 57.0 percentage point drop in the market price indicates a significantly reduced probability that the 30-year US Treasury yield would reach 5.23% or below by November 30, 2026. This movement appears to be primarily driven by the cumulative effect of stronger-than-expected inflation data and hawkish Federal Reserve comments, which contributed to upward pressure on yields in the days leading up to November 13, 2026 [1][2]. For instance, yields jumped on November 10 and "ripped higher" on November 11 [1][2], reaching 5.4510% by November 12, 2026, with experts anticipating further increases [3][4][5]. Social media activity from key figures or viral narratives are not mentioned in the provided research, indicating traditional news and economic data as the primary driver and social media as irrelevant.
Outcome: 5.22% or below
📉 November 12, 2026: 67.0pp drop
Price decreased from 73.0% to 6.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price drop was a series of traditional news announcements on November 10, 2026, which signaled persistent inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance. October CPI data exceeded expectations, core CPI was higher than anticipated, and Fed Governor Waller discussed a possible 50-basis-point rate hike in December, while a $42 billion 10-year auction was weak [6][7][8]. These developments pushed Treasury yields higher, decreasing the market's perceived probability that the 30-year yield would fall to 5.22% or below by November 30, 2026 [6][7]. This traditional news and policy outlook appeared to lead the price move on November 12, 2026, making social media activity irrelevant as a primary driver given the provided information.
Outcome: 5.16% or below
📉 November 10, 2026: 41.0pp drop
Price decreased from 57.0% to 16.0%
What happened: The 41.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market price for "5.16% or below" was primarily driven by traditional news and economic data on November 10, 2026. Hotter-than-expected October CPI data combined with a mediocre $42 billion Treasury auction led to a selloff, causing the 30-year Treasury yield to rise by over 9 basis points to approximately 5.352% [6]. This increase in yield made the outcome of reaching 5.16% or below significantly less probable, directly resulting in the market's downward price adjustment [6]. Social media activity was irrelevant based on the available information.
Outcome: 5.2% or below
📈 November 05, 2026: 14.0pp spike
Price increased from 49.0% to 63.0%
What happened: Based on the provided research, a primary driver for the 14.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market price for the outcome "5.2% or below" on November 5, 2026, cannot be identified. All available information points to significant upward pressure on 30-year US Treasury yields around this date, driven by stronger-than-expected October inflation data and hawkish Federal Reserve remarks indicating potential interest rate hikes [1]. No social media activity or traditional news event was found that would suggest an increased probability of yields dropping to 5.2% or below at this time [3]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this specific movement, and traditional news indicates a contrary trend.
Sources (8)
- 1aa.com.tr
- 2home.saxo
- 3worldgovernmentbonds.com
- 4goldmansachs.com
- 5youtube.com
- 6Treasury yields: Traders digest inflation data, Waller commentscnbc.com
- 7US Treasury yields surge as hot CPI revives Fed tightening bets By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 8TREASURY WRAP: T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLE 26 TICKS LOWER AT 106-08 | Newsquawknewsquawk.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if the 30-year US Treasury yield reaches 5.24% or below by the end of November 2026. A NO resolution occurs if the yield remains above 5.24% by that time. The final payout date for the market is November 30, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.21% or below | $0.11 | $0.99 | 71% |
| 5.15% or below | $0.07 | $1.00 | 50% |
| 5.14% or below | $0.07 | $1.00 | 47% |
| 5.11% or below | $0.07 | $1.00 | 38% |
| 5.08% or below | $0.06 | $1.00 | 15% |
| 5.23% or below | $0.14 | $0.94 | 14% |
| 5.24% or below | $0.13 | $0.94 | 11% |
| 5.09% or below | $0.06 | $1.00 | 8% |
| 5.2% or below | $0.05 | $0.99 | 6% |
| 5.22% or below | $0.12 | $0.96 | 6% |
| 5.07% or below | $0.05 | $0.98 | 5% |
| 5.18% or below | $0.04 | $1.00 | 5% |
| 5.1% or below | $0.06 | $1.00 | 4% |
| 5.17% or below | $0.07 | $1.00 | 3% |
| 5.19% or below | $0.05 | $0.99 | 2% |
| 5.13% or below | $0.06 | $0.99 | 1% |
| 5.16% or below | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 5.12% or below | $0.07 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
The 30-year US Treasury yield was reported near 5.43%–5.46% on November 12–13, 2026 [1][2][3], with the most defensible point estimate for a November low approximately 5.24% and a forecast range of 5.20%–5.30% [3][4]. A sustained move below 5.00% by November 30 is not supported by cited evidence, as institutional forecasts cluster around 5.35%–5.50% and one analyst explicitly called sub-5% unlikely [1][5][6][7]. Potential downside catalysts for yields include risk-off episodes or weaker growth signals, while upside risks involve persistent inflation or weak Treasury auctions [2][8][9][10].
Sources (10)
- 130 Year U.S. Treasury Bond Rate Forecastforecasts.org
- 2Treasury yields rise as traders strengthen Fed rate hike betscnbc.com
- 3How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026: Odds & Chart | 4Search Finance4search.com
- 4Rates forecasts & analysis | PropBetEdge Prediction Intelligencepredictions.propbetedge.ai
- 5Peter Brandt Sees 30-Year Yield at 7%. Would Bitcoin and Stocks Survive?beincrypto.com
- 6Monthly Fixed Income Monitor - November 2026nationalbank.com
- 7https://economics.td.com/domains/economics.td.com/documents/reports/bottom-line/tables/2026-11-06/us-table.htmeconomics.td.com
- 8US Rates Strategy Weeklysmbcgroup.com
- 9Interesting TACs of the Week (November 2 – November 8, 2026) – Macro Viewpointscinemarasik.com
- 10Yields Hit Session High After Ugly, Tailing 30Y Auction – FREEDOMBUNKERfreedombunker.com
5. Trust Index
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score79Good
Market integrity is low (68), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score43High Risk
Trust score71Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What catalysts, from FOMC policy pivots to key inflation reports, could realistically drive the 30-year Treasury yield below 5.25% by late 2026?
| Primary Conditions for Yield Fall | Soft inflation and dovish Federal Reserve communication, or soft data and declining flight-to-quality/term-premium [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Key Near-Term Policy Catalyst | November 18 FOMC minutes [6][7] |
| Market Odds for Yield Below 5.25% | Inconsistent, ranging from approximately 10% to 56% [1][8] |
Achieving a 30-year Treasury yield below 5.25% by late 2026 requires specific conditions. A realistic path necessitates a combination of soft inflation, particularly in the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) release, and dovish Federal Reserve communication, or weak economic data alongside a decline in flight-to-quality or term premium [1][2][3][4][5]. A scenario driven solely by an FOMC policy pivot, without accompanying lower inflation or a reduced long-end premium, is considered less likely to achieve this target [1][2][3][4][5].
Near-term catalysts, primarily FOMC minutes and PCE, could influence yields. The November 18 FOMC minutes represent the most crucial scheduled near-term policy catalyst [6][7]. A dovish interpretation of these minutes, indicating concerns about labor-market downside or discussions of faster rate cuts, could lower the front end of the yield curve, subsequently pulling the long end down [6][7]. Additionally, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) release on November 25, 2026, is an important inflation report; a downside surprise in headline and core PCE would reinforce disinflation and rate-cut expectations [5]. Other pre-deadline labor catalysts could include revisions, weekly claims, or various labor indicators [9][10][11].
Post-deadline catalysts are not direct influences on the specific prediction. Catalysts scheduled after the November 30 resolution deadline, such as the December 10, 2026, CPI release and the December 8-9 FOMC meeting, are not direct influences on this specific prediction market [6][9][10]. Market assessments of the probability for the 30-year yield falling to 5.24% or below by November 30, 2026, have shown inconsistency, with reported figures ranging from approximately 10% to 56% [1][8]. Model analyses, such as those from PropBetEdge, demonstrate sensitivity to events, though their path model did not explicitly incorporate macro-release calendar effects [3][4].
Sources (11)
- 1How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 2How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026 — forecast vs market | PropBetEdge Predictionspredictions.propbetedge.ai
- 3How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026 — PBE forecast moved −17 pts | PropBetEdge Predictionspredictions.propbetedge.ai
- 4How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026 — PBE forecast moved +15 pts | PropBetEdge Predictionspredictions.propbetedge.ai
- 5Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
- 6The Fed - Meeting calendars and informationfederalreserve.gov
- 7US 30Y Treasury yield at 2:15pm ET · FOMC minutes Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 8US 10Y Treasury yield at 2:15pm ET · FOMC minutes Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 9Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Indexbls.gov
- 10Schedule of Selected Releases for December 2026bls.gov
- 11Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situationbls.gov
7. How do the US Treasury's projected debt issuance needs through 2026 and recent auction demand metrics challenge the case for significantly lower yields?
| FY2026 Projected Net Marketable Borrowing (Median) | $2.009 trillion [1] |
|---|---|
| Q4 FY2026 Projected Net Coupon Issuance | $375 billion [1] |
| Nov 2026 30-year Auction Bid-to-Cover Ratio | approximately 2.36x [2] |
The US Treasury projects substantial debt issuance, challenging significantly lower yields. The Treasury's anticipated borrowing requirements through 2026 are considerable, with a primary-dealer median forecast of $2.009 trillion for privately held net marketable borrowing in FY2026 and $375 billion of net coupon issuance for Q4 FY2026 [1]. An illustrative November 2026 financing schedule also included a $25 billion 30-year bond auction, indicating a sustained supply of long-duration debt [3]. These substantial borrowing needs and ongoing supply collectively form a strong argument against significantly lower yields through 2026 [1][4].
Auction demand metrics suggest adequacy, not exceptional strength, hindering lower yields. Recent data indicates that auction demand has been adequate rather than exceptionally robust, which further challenges the case for significantly lower yields. For instance, the November 12, 2026 30-year bond auction achieved an approximately 2.36x bid-to-cover ratio, with $122.385 billion in total bids against a $25 billion offering [2][5]. This performance was not dramatically stronger than the August 2026 auction's roughly 2.40x competitive bids [2][5]. While robust demand is present and larger coupon sizes had not yet been announced, the combination of consistent borrowing needs and ordinary auction demand collectively impedes a significant reduction in yields [4][2].
Sources (5)
- 1Treasury Presentation to TBAChome.treasury.gov
- 2Securitiestreasurydirect.gov
- 3TBAC RECOMMENDED US TREASURY FINANCING SCHEDULE FOR AUGUST 2026-OCTOBER 2026 QUARTER * BILLIONS OF DOLLARShome.treasury.gov
- 4Quarterly Refunding Statement of Deputy Assistant Secretary for Federal Finance Brian Smith | U.S. Department of the Treasuryhome.treasury.gov
- 5TREASURY AUCTION RESULTStreasurydirect.gov
8. How do the Federal Reserve's long-run 'dot plot' projections compare with Wall Street's consensus forecasts for the 30-year yield in late 2026?
| Median Nov-low Contract | 5.17% (late 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Middle-half Range | 5.10%–5.25% (late 2026) [1] |
| Macro/Fed Events Median | 5.45%–5.46% (late 2026) [2][3][4] |
Wall Street forecasts for late 2026 30-year Treasury yields vary. As of November 13, 2026, the median forecast for the November-low contract was 5.17%, with a middle-half range reported between 5.10% and 5.25% [1]. Public.com pricing further suggested a central downside target for the yield in the range of 5.15%–5.20% [5].
Available research lacks Federal Reserve 'dot plot' projections for comparison. The provided research does not include information regarding the Federal Reserve's long-run 'dot plot' projections. Therefore, a direct comparison between the Federal Reserve's projections and Wall Street's consensus forecasts for the 30-year yield in late 2026 cannot be made based on the available facts.
Sources (5)
- 130Y US Treasury yield on Nov 13, 2026: Odds & Chart | 4Search Finance4search.com
- 2How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026: Odds & Chart | 4Search Finance4search.com
- 330Y Yield (^TYX) Prediction Markets: Odds & Outlook | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 4TLT (TLT) Prediction Markets: Odds & Outlook | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 5How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
9. Which derivatives markets, such as SOFR futures and options on the TLT ETF, provide the clearest signals on evolving market expectations for the 30-year yield's 2026 trajectory?
| Cleanest long-end tail signal | 30-year Treasury futures options [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Liquid proxy for sentiment | TLT options [4][1][2][3] |
| Diagnosing long-end move drivers | SOFR futures and options [1][2][3] |
30-year Treasury futures options offer the clearest long-end yield signals. Evolving market expectations for the 30-year yield's 2026 trajectory are primarily signaled by 30-year Treasury futures options, which provide the most distinct tradable signal for the long-end tail [1][2][3]. TLT options also function as a liquid proxy, indicative of market liquidity and overall sentiment [4][1][2][3]. However, when employing TLT options, it is crucial to convert metrics like implied volatility, put/call skew, and downside/upside strikes into yield space [4][1][2][3]. Factors such as duration, convexity, ETF flows, distributions, and the broader Treasury curve significantly affect TLT's price, meaning these metrics cannot be directly interpreted as 30-year-yield probabilities [4][1][2][3].
SOFR futures and options clarify drivers of long-end yield movements. These instruments are crucial for discerning whether long-end yield shifts are driven by expectations of Federal Reserve easing or by other market dynamics, such as term-premium or supply forces [1][2][3]. Furthermore, direct 30-year yield event prices are continuously monitored to address specific questions regarding the yield's precise trajectory [1][2][3].
Sources (4)
- 1How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026: Odds & Chart | 4Search Finance4search.com
- 2TLT (TLT) Prediction Markets: Odds & Outlook | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 3How high will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026: Odds & Chart | 4Search Finance4search.com
- 430Y US Treasury yield on Nov 13, 2026: Odds & Chart | 4Search Finance4search.com
10. What does the history of past Fed rate cycles since 2000 suggest about the plausible floor for the 30-year yield in a 'soft landing' versus a recession scenario by 2026?
| 30-year yield recession low | 1.82% (January 2021) [1] |
|---|---|
| 30-year yield soft landing low | 2.22% (January 2020) [1] |
| FOMC projected federal funds rate | 3.25%-3.50% by end of 2025 (soft landing) [2] |
The history of Federal Reserve rate cycles since 2000 reveals distinct potential floors for the 30-year Treasury yield in varying economic scenarios. During recessionary periods, aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts have historically driven 30-year yields to approximately 2% or even lower [3][4]. In contrast, a soft landing scenario typically involves more gradual rate adjustments by the Fed, which prevents yields from reaching the extreme lows observed during recessions, with a historical floor closer to 2.22% [3][1].
Recessions prompt aggressive Fed rate cuts, driving 30-year yields significantly lower. Historically, the Federal Reserve implemented substantial rate cuts to stimulate the economy during downturns, leading to considerable drops in long-term Treasury yields [3]. For instance, the 30-year Treasury yield fell to lows around 2% following the Great Recession [4]. More recently, during the COVID-19 Recession, after the Fed reduced rates to 0% [5][6], the 30-year Treasury yield reached an extreme low of 1.82% by January 2021 [1]. These examples demonstrate that severe economic downturns lead to policy responses that significantly reduce long-term yields.
Soft landings involve measured Fed rate cuts, preventing extreme long-term yield drops. In such scenarios, the Federal Reserve’s approach to rate adjustments is typically more measured, which tends to keep long-term yields from plummeting to recessionary lows [3]. A notable example is the 2019 "mid-cycle adjustment," where the 30-year Treasury yield, which stood at approximately 3.04% in January 2019, only dipped to about 2.22% by January 2020 [1]. Furthermore, as of October 2024, FOMC projections for a soft landing by the end of 2025 suggest a potential federal funds rate range of 3.25%-3.50% [2], indicating a less drastic reduction in rates and, consequently, in long-term yields.
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.4602% on November 13, 2026, rising 3 basis points from the November 12 reference of 5.43% [1][2]. Prediction market distributions lean towards a high-5.2s to mid-5.3s outcome rather than a deep rally [3]. Kalshi indicated 53% odds at-or-above 5.28%, 48% at-or-above 5.30%, 44% at-or-above 5.32%, and 83% at-or-above 5.16% for the November 30 settlement [3].
Polymarket's November high-yield market showed substantial upside-tail risk from November 3–30, with an 84% probability of reaching 5.45%, 68% for 5.49%, 46% for 5.53%, and 24% for 5.57% at some point [4]. A bullish scenario of 5.15%–5.25% could materialize if growth data weaken and risk-off demand intensifies [3][4][2][5][6][7]. The base case is set at 5.30%–5.45% [3][4][2][5][6][7]. A bearish outcome, ranging from 5.45%–5.60%, is possible if inflation, Fed-hike expectations, energy risk, or supply concerns dominate [3][4][2][5][6][7]. Prediction-market rules assess the U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 30 Yr column, on the final business day [4].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 30, 2026
- Expiration: December 02, 2026
- Closes: November 30, 2026
Sources (7)
- 130 Year U.S. Treasury Bond Rate Forecastforecasts.org
- 2Treasury yields rise as traders strengthen Fed rate hike betscnbc.com
- 330Y US Treasury yield on Nov 30, 2026? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 4How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in November?polymarket.com
- 5Monthly Fixed Income Monitor - November 2026nationalbank.com
- 6Report to the Secretary of the Treasury from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee | U.S. Department of the Treasuryhome.treasury.gov
- 7US Rates Strategy Weeklysmbcgroup.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 15 resolved YES, 5 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KX30YRDIRLM-26NOV30L-T5.37: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
- KX30YRDIRLM-26NOV30L-T5.36: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
- KX30YRDIRLM-26NOV30L-T5.35: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
- KX30YRDIRLM-26NOV30L-T5.34: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
- KX30YRDIRLM-26NOV30L-T5.33: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
