Short Answer

The 10-year US Treasury yield is unlikely to fall to 4.83% or below by November 30, 2026, driven higher by hotter-than-expected CPI data, hawkish Federal Reserve comments, and weak auction demand. While a model assigns a 51.8% probability to this threshold, the market prices the outcome at 29.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The probability implied by this market collapsed in response to hotter-than-expected inflation data. The price, which reflects the likelihood of lower yields, fell from 68.0% on November 6 to 18.0% by November 11. The catalyst was a core CPI report that revived bets on further Federal Reserve tightening.

The inflation figures directly drove the 10-year Treasury yield higher by 10-13 basis points on November 10-11, with the yield briefly trading at 5.023%. Sentiment was further confirmed by weak demand for a 10-year auction that cleared at a high yield of 5.02%. The sharp repricing in the cash bond market made a significant drop in yields by the end of the month appear much less likely, triggering the sell-off in this contract. The available information does not specify a driver for the increase in probability seen during the first week of November.

Yields are likely to reach 4.83% or below, driven by fiscal gridlock and falling oil prices.
Hotter CPI and weak auction demand, however, temper further downward yield moves.
JPMorgan (4.85%) and HSBC (4.65%) show divergent 2026 year-end yield forecasts.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome	Market	Model	Why
4.81% or below	18.0%	51.5%	A model indicated a significant downward revision for lower yield probabilities.
4.83% or below	29.0%	51.8%	Hotter CPI data, hawkish Fed comments, and weak auction demand drove yields higher.
4.72% or below	9.0%	9.0%	Hotter CPI data, hawkish Fed comments, and weak auction demand drove yields higher.
4.66% or below	6.0%	4.0%	PropBetEdge model revisions indicate a stronger negative impact on thresholds immediately below the current yield.
4.79% or below	70.0%	51.5%	PropBetEdge model indicates a stronger negative impact on thresholds immediately below the current yield.

Current Context

The 10-year Treasury yield reacted sharply to recent inflation data. It rose approximately 10-13 basis points on November 10-11, 2026, briefly topping 5% intraday at 5.023% before closing at 4.99% ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. The 10-year auction cleared at 5.02%, indicating weak demand ^[1]. Prior to this increase, the yield had fallen 42 basis points from 5.28% in early October to 4.86% by November 10 ^[5]. As of November 11, 2026, a prediction market prices the 10-year yield at 4.983%, with 23% odds it falls to 4.83% or below by November 30, 2026, and 11% odds it reaches 4.75% or below ^[6].

Strong inflation data fuels expectations for continued Fed tightening. October 2026 CPI, released November 10, showed headline inflation at +0.4% month-over-month, above the +0.3% expected, and core CPI at +0.3% month-over-month, exceeding the +0.2% expected ^[2]^[7]^[3]^[4]. This marks the third consecutive month of core CPI at +0.3%, with a three-month annualized core pace of +3.75%, the fastest since April 2024 ^[2]. Fed Governor Chris Waller stated on November 10 he backs a 25 basis point rate hike in December, suggesting a 50 basis point move 'should be considered' if core CPI remains around 0.3% or higher ^[8]^[2]^[3]^[9]^[10]. CME FedWatch pricing reflects an 88.8% probability for a 25 basis point December hike and 11.2% for a 50 basis point move ^[10]. Deutsche Bank strategists noted the CPI print drove the largest moves in US Treasuries, with the 2-year yield experiencing its biggest daily jump since 2025, and market pricing now discounts a more extended and aggressive Fed hiking cycle into 2027 ^[7]. TD Securities reported that US Treasuries bear flattened sharply following the CPI data and Waller's comments, with markets pricing in additional Fed tightening ^[9]. Goldman Sachs added another 25 basis point rate hike in March 2027 to its forecast after the hot CPI data, expecting Fed hikes in December 2026 and March 2027 ^[11]. A Reuters poll of 101 economists from November 6-10, 2026, forecasts a 25 basis point Fed hike in December to a 4.00%-4.25% range; 55% of forecasters expect this to be the end of the current tightening cycle, while 45% see at least two more increases ahead ^[12].

Diverse analyst forecasts precede key economic releases this month. Financial Forecast Center projects the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.02% in November 2026, rising to 5.17% in December 2026, and peaking at 5.20% in January 2027, before gradually declining to 4.85% by May 2027 ^[13]. JPMorgan raised its year-end 2026 10-year Treasury yield forecast to 4.85% from 4.70% ^[14]. HSBC anticipates the 10-year at 4.65% by year-end, while UBS forecasts 4.5% for the 10-year by end-2026 ^[15]^[16]. Key economic data releases before November 30, 2026, include PPI on November 13, retail sales and industrial production on November 17, FOMC minutes on November 18, and GDP second estimate and PCE inflation on November 25 ^[17]^[18]^[19]^[20]. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 ^[19].

Sources (20)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: 4.82% or below

📉 November 11, 2026: 55.0pp drop

Price decreased from 72.0% to 17.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the prediction market's 55.0 percentage point drop on November 11, 2026, making "4.82% or below" more likely, was the staggering 20% weekly collapse in crude oil prices ^[1], which precipitated the 10-year US Treasury yield falling to 4.837% on November 10, 2026 ^[2]. Brent crude futures diving "nearly 9% overnight" contributed significantly, signaling weaker economic demand and inflation expectations, thereby increasing demand for safe-haven Treasuries ^[1]. This pushed the yield to its lowest close in almost two months, just above the market's target ^[2]. Social media was not identified as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or significant noise based on the available information.

Outcome: 4.83% or below

📉 November 10, 2026: 67.0pp drop

Price decreased from 87.0% to 20.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 67.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market on November 10, 2026, was traditional news. On that day, the 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.98% after trading above 5% intraday, following the release of hot October CPI data and comments from Fed Waller that drove rate hike expectations ^[3]. This news pushed yields higher, significantly decreasing the market's perceived probability that the yield would reach "4.83% or below" by November 30, 2026. Social media activity did not appear to be a primary driver or significant accelerant for this specific market movement.

📉 November 03, 2026: 21.0pp drop

Price decreased from 63.0% to 42.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 21.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market on November 03, 2026, was a traditional news announcement: a strong jobs report that bolstered expectations for a December Fed rate hike ^[4]. This report indicated potential for tighter monetary policy, leading to expectations of higher future bond yields and making the outcome "4.83% or below" less probable ^[4]. Concurrently, the 10-year yield displayed a steepening pattern on November 3rd, reinforcing expectations for rising long-term rates ^[5]. Social media was irrelevant to this specific price movement, as no related posts or viral narratives were identified in the provided research for this period.

Outcome: 4.65% or below

📉 November 06, 2026: 18.0pp drop

Price decreased from 33.0% to 15.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 18.0 percentage point drop in the "4.65% or below" outcome on November 06, 2026, appears to be a market re-evaluation of the limits to further yield declines. Following an initial dip in the 10-year US Treasury yield after the November 04 Democratic election sweep ^[6]^[7], traders likely recalibrated expectations based on a prevailing analyst sentiment citing 4.75% as "fair value" and a slim likelihood of breaking below 4.5% in the short term ^[8]. This sentiment, coupled with the high probability of a December Fed rate hike, reduced confidence that the yield would reach 4.65% or below ^[9]^[10]. Social media was not identified as a factor in this price movement.

Outcome: 4.7% or below

📈 November 05, 2026: 49.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 49.0%

What happened: The provided research does not identify a primary driver for the 49.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on November 05, 2026. While the 10-year Treasury yield generally declined from early October to 4.86% by November 10, 2026, there are no specific social media posts, traditional news, or market events cited for November 05, 2026, that would directly trigger such a sharp increase in the probability of the yield falling to 4.7% or below ^[9]. Major news events impacting yields, such as hot CPI data and hawkish Fed comments, occurred on November 10, 2026, and generally pushed yields higher, which would typically decrease the probability of reaching 4.7% or below ^[3]^[11]^[12]^[13]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this specific observed price movement based on the available information.

Sources (13)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if the 10-year US Treasury yield reaches 4.83% or below at any point by November 30, 2026. It resolves NO if the yield remains above 4.83% through that date. The provided content does not specify the exact data source for the yield.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket	Yes (price)	No (price)	Last trade probability
4.79% or below	$0.25	$0.85	70%
4.8% or below	$0.26	$0.84	65%
4.77% or below	$0.22	$0.88	54%
4.83% or below	$0.32	$0.78	29%
4.67% or below	$0.10	$0.99	23%
4.81% or below	$0.23	$0.81	18%
4.78% or below	$0.19	$0.87	17%
4.82% or below	$0.29	$0.81	17%
4.75% or below	$0.17	$0.91	14%
4.76% or below	$0.18	$0.92	12%
4.72% or below	$0.10	$0.94	9%
4.65% or below	$0.08	$0.99	8%
4.66% or below	$0.08	$0.97	6%
4.69% or below	$0.07	$0.95	6%
4.7% or below	$0.12	$0.98	2%
4.68% or below	$0.11	$0.99	0%
4.71% or below	$0.13	$0.97	0%
4.73% or below	$0.16	$0.94	0%
4.74% or below	$0.17	$0.93	0%

Market Discussion

The 10-year US Treasury yield has already dipped to or below 4.84% in November 2026, with a prediction market resolving "Yes" for this level and Federal Reserve data showing 4.84% on November 5, 2026 ^[1]. While current prediction market odds for November 2026 show declining probabilities for the yield to fall below 4.75% (11% chance), broader forecasts and market sentiment suggest yields are more likely to remain elevated or rise towards year-end, with many traders skeptical of efforts to cap rising yields ^[1].

Sources (1)

1How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com

5. Trust Index

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up

Integrity80% of score78Good

Market integrity is low (68), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score44High Risk

Trust score72Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile

Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

6. What specific outcomes in the November 25 PCE inflation report could trigger a significant drop in the 10-year yield before the end of the month?

10-year US Treasury yield	Around 4.983% or 4.929% (As of November 10, 2026) ^[1]^[2]
Core PCE median forecast	0.33% month-over-month (November 25, 2026 report) ^[3]^[4]
Probability of Fed rate cut before 2027	1% ^[3]

A significant drop in the 10-year US Treasury yield before November 30, 2026, hinges on a dovish surprise in the November 25, 2026 PCE inflation report. This would specifically require the October 2026 core PCE data to fall below the 0.25% lower bound of the forecast distribution. Such an outcome would strengthen market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, subsequently pushing yields lower ^[3]^[4].

Current market conditions require a substantial dovish shift. As of November 10, 2026, the 10-year US Treasury yield is approximately 4.983% or 4.929% ^[1]^[2]. The upcoming November 25 PCE inflation report is anticipated to show a core PCE increase with a median forecast of 0.33% month-over-month ^[3]^[4]. Given that the current probability for a Fed rate cut before 2027 is priced at only 1%, a substantial dovish surprise in the PCE data would be necessary to significantly shift market expectations for near-term rate cuts and induce a notable yield drop ^[3].

Sources (4)

7. How do the underlying economic assumptions of JPMorgan and HSBC lead to their divergent year-end 2026 10-year yield forecasts of 4.85% and 4.65%?

JPMorgan 2026 10-year yield forecast	4.85% ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]
HSBC 2026 10-year yield forecast	4.65% ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]
Zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 (prediction market probability)	98% ^[3]^[4]

JPMorgan and HSBC hold divergent year-end 2026 10-year yield forecasts. JPMorgan forecasts the year-end 2026 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.85%, a projection 20 basis points higher than HSBC's forecast of 4.65% ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. This difference reflects JPMorgan's more hawkish assumptions concerning the Federal Reserve's 2026 policy path and expectations of persistent inflation ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. In contrast, HSBC's lower forecast is based on anticipated faster disinflation and a soft-landing economic trajectory, which would lead to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4].

JPMorgan's higher forecast stems from expectations of persistent inflation. The firm's 4.85% forecast is underpinned by assumptions of a hawkish Federal Reserve and inflation persisting, with the CPI year-over-year median anticipated around 3.7% in November 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. This outlook is further supported by prediction markets, which assign a 69% probability to a higher term premium driven by fiscal supply and an overheating economy ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. Prediction markets also indicate a 98% probability of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 and an 85% probability of two 25-basis point hikes, totaling 50 basis points, during the same year, reinforcing JPMorgan's higher-yield perspective ^[3]^[4].

HSBC's lower forecast anticipates faster disinflation and a soft landing. Its 4.65% year-end 2026 10-year yield forecast expects faster disinflation and a soft-landing scenario, leading to a dovish Federal Reserve and allowing for yield compression below JPMorgan's projection ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. While the current 10-year yield trades near 4.98% and the Kalshi year-end median is approximately 5.09%, the Kalshi market estimates roughly a 23% chance that the 10-year yield could fall to 4.83% or lower by November 30, 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[3]^[5]^[6]^[4].

Sources (6)

8. What evidence from recent Treasury auctions and statements by Fed Governor Waller supports the view that the 10-year yield will remain near 5% through November 2026?

10-year Treasury Yield (early Nov 2026)	4.9-5.0% ^[1]^[2]
10-year Treasury Auction Yield (Nov 10, 2026)	High 4.9% range ^[3]^[4]
Expected High 10-year Yield (by Nov 30, 2026)	Median 5.07-5.08% ^[5]^[6]^[7]

The 10-year US Treasury yield is currently stable, consistently trading near 5%. Official data indicates the yield has oscillated in a tight 4.9-5.0% band in early November 2026, demonstrating minimal daily movement ^[1]^[2]. Further support for this stability came from the 10-year Treasury auction on November 10, 2026, which confirmed the yield was trading in the high 4.9% range ^[3]^[4]. Based on recent data, the yield is widely expected to remain within a narrow band around this level through November 2026.

Prediction markets largely reinforce a stable outlook for the 10-year yield. The Kalshi market, for instance, projects a median expected high of 5.07-5.08% for the 10-year US Treasury yield by November 30, 2026 ^[5]^[6]^[7]. While there was an initial 70% probability for the yield to drop to 4.83% or below, the PropBetEdge model adjusted this forecast down to 35% on November 10, 2026, based on new Treasury data, thereby reducing the likelihood of a significant decline ^[8]^[9]. Overall, prediction markets for November, including Polymarket, indicate an expected range of approximately 4.85-5.10% ^[7], with strikes between 4.80-5.00% anticipated around key Fed events throughout the month ^[6]^[10]^[11]^[12].

Sources (12)

9. How might forward-looking guidance in the November 18 FOMC minutes regarding the 2027 tightening path affect 10-year yields before November 30?

Implied Fed target range midpoint	4.39% by March 2027 ^[1]^[2]^[3]
10-year US Treasury yield	4.93-4.98% (as of Nov 10-11, 2026) ^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]
PropBetEdge 10-year yield probability (4.83% or below)	35% (on Nov 10, 2026) ^[10]^[11]^[12]

Forward guidance from FOMC minutes will significantly impact 10-year yields. Market participants anticipate a notable reaction to the November 18, 2026 FOMC minutes regarding the 2027 tightening path, affecting 10-year yields before November 30 ^[13]^[14]^[15]^[16]^[17]^[18]^[19]. A hawkish release is expected to push yields higher, while a dovish surprise could lead to lower yields ^[20]^[2]^[3]^[21]. The Federal Reserve is currently in a tightening cycle, with its target range set at 3.75-4.00% ^[1]^[2]^[3]. Prediction markets indicate a 51% probability of a January 2027 rate hike and 56% odds of a March 2027 hike, with the implied target range midpoint reaching 4.39% by March 2027 ^[1]^[2]^[3]. Should the November 18 FOMC minutes provide hawkish guidance on the 2027 tightening path, it would likely drive 10-year yields higher, thereby reducing the likelihood of reaching lower thresholds ^[20]^[2]^[3].

Current 10-year yields indicate limited potential for downside movement. As of November 10-11, 2026, the 10-year US Treasury yield is trading at approximately 4.93-4.98%, having recently fallen below 4.91% ^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]. The Kalshi prediction market suggests a median lowest point of around 4.81-4.85% by November 30, with a 59-65% probability of reaching 4.80% or below ^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]^[22]^[20]. However, the currently elevated yield, combined with a hawkish Fed outlook, points to limited potential for downward movement before November 30, unless the FOMC minutes unexpectedly deliver a dovish shift or other macroeconomic data weakens the tightening narrative ^[21]^[2]^[3]. The PropBetEdge model’s probability of the 10-year yield reaching 4.83% or below significantly decreased from 69% to 35% on November 10, 2026, reflecting its high sensitivity to new Treasury data and evolving market conditions ^[10]^[11]^[12].

Sources (22)

10. How does the market's pricing for the December Fed meeting (via CME FedWatch) compare to the distribution of forecasts in the latest Reuters economist poll?

Probability of 25 basis point Fed rate hike	85% (as of November 11, 2026) ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]
Implied post-meeting fed funds midpoint	4.14% ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]
Kalshi median fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting	4.13% ^[2]^[3]^[4]

Direct comparison to Reuters economist forecasts is currently not feasible. Research did not yield direct Reuters economist poll data for the December 2026 Federal Reserve meeting ^[1]^[2]^[3]. Consequently, an assessment of how market pricing aligns with or diverges from such a poll cannot be performed ^[1]^[2]^[3].

Prediction markets strongly anticipate a December 2026 Fed rate hike. As of November 11, 2026, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket assign an approximately 85% probability to a 25 basis point increase in the federal funds rate at the December 9, 2026 FOMC meeting ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. This market pricing implies a post-meeting midpoint for the fed funds target range of 4.14% ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. Specifically, the Kalshi market indicates a median fed funds rate of 4.13% following the December meeting, and the 'Fed median dot plot in December 2026' is priced at 4.05% ^[2]^[3]^[4].

Sources (4)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The 10-year Treasury yield recently fell approximately 42 basis points over five consecutive weeks from its early October peak of 5.28-5.36% to around 4.86%, marking the biggest five-week slide since August 2024 ^[1]. This decline was attributed to fiscal gridlock from a divided Congress, falling oil prices, and an AI selloff safe-haven bid ^[1]^[2]. However, the October CPI, released November 10, 2026, came in hotter than expected at or above 3.8% year-over-year, pushing the 10-year yield back above 5% intraday before paring gains to 4.992% ^[3]^[4]. A soft $42 billion 10-year note auction on the same day compounded the bond market's decline ^[3]^[4]. These events converged on November 10, 2026, a Tuesday, with the bond market closed Wednesday for Veterans Day, leaving no buffer day for digestion ^[5]^[4]. As of November 10, 2026, Kalshi priced 23% odds the 10-year yield falls to 4.83% or below by November 30, 2026 ^[6].

Market expectations for Federal Reserve policy remain a key driver. CME FedWatch priced approximately 73-84% probability of a quarter-point Fed rate hike at the December 8-9, 2026 FOMC meeting, influenced by strong October payrolls of 165,000 against expectations of 59,000-65,000 and persistent inflation concerns ^[4]^[2]. This divergence shows the short end driven by jobs and inflation (hike pricing), while the long end is pressured down by fiscal gridlock, falling oil on Iran de-escalation, and an AI selloff safe-haven bid ^[2]. Citi strategists noted a divided government after the November 3 midterms would likely benefit bonds by weakening fiscal expectations and pushing Treasury prices higher ^[7]. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced in August 2026 that Treasury would at least double its planned buybacks of longer-term government bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, running through November 4, 2026, in an effort to cap rising yields ^[8]^[9].

Huffman Writes identifies a 'paradox branch' scenario where if November payrolls approach zero and the December FOMC meeting passes without a hike, a 10-year yield of 4.4% with inflation at 3.6% could materialize by late November/early December ^[10]. Current forecasts vary: TD Economics projects the 10-year yield at 5.10% for Q4 2026 and 4.95% for Q1 2027 ^[11], while National Bank projects 5.00% for Q4 2026 and 5.15% for Q1 2027 ^[12]. Both institutions expect two additional Fed rate hikes in December and March, bringing rates to 4.50% ^[12]^[11].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Strike Date: November 30, 2026
Expiration: December 02, 2026
Closes: November 30, 2026

Sources (12)

12. Keep Exploring

IPO Tracker Companies preparing to go public, with the market's view on timing. More Interest Rates markets See more interest rates setups in the same theme. Browse all Financials markets Keep exploring adjacent financials markets. Track this in the app Open the live app flow and keep following this market in real time.

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 20 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

KX10YRDIRLM-26NOV30L-T5.05: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
KX10YRDIRLM-26NOV30L-T5.04: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
KX10YRDIRLM-26NOV30L-T5.03: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
KX10YRDIRLM-26NOV30L-T5.02: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
KX10YRDIRLM-26NOV30L-T5.01: YES (Nov 02, 2026)

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

Outcome: 4.82% or below

📉 November 11, 2026: 55.0pp drop

Outcome: 4.83% or below

📉 November 10, 2026: 67.0pp drop

📉 November 03, 2026: 21.0pp drop

Outcome: 4.65% or below

📉 November 06, 2026: 18.0pp drop

Outcome: 4.7% or below

📈 November 05, 2026: 49.0pp spike

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

5. Trust Index

6. What specific outcomes in the November 25 PCE inflation report could trigger a significant drop in the 10-year yield before the end of the month?

7. How do the underlying economic assumptions of JPMorgan and HSBC lead to their divergent year-end 2026 10-year yield forecasts of 4.85% and 4.65%?

8. What evidence from recent Treasury auctions and statements by Fed Governor Waller supports the view that the 10-year yield will remain near 5% through November 2026?

9. How might forward-looking guidance in the November 18 FOMC minutes regarding the 2027 tightening path affect 10-year yields before November 30?

10. How does the market's pricing for the December Fed meeting (via CME FedWatch) compare to the distribution of forecasts in the latest Reuters economist poll?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

13. Historical Resolutions

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome: 4.82% or below

📉 November 11, 2026: 55.0pp drop

Outcome: 4.83% or below

📉 November 10, 2026: 67.0pp drop

📉 November 03, 2026: 21.0pp drop

Outcome: 4.65% or below

📉 November 06, 2026: 18.0pp drop

Outcome: 4.7% or below

📈 November 05, 2026: 49.0pp spike

Contract Snapshot

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Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

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