Uber Eats App Downloads in September
Short Answer
Uber Eats app downloads are unlikely to exceed 140 in September 2026, despite multiple strategic expansions like a nationwide Costco partnership and added Wakefern/ShopRite locations expected to positively influence downloads, an outcome the market prices at 1.0% compared to the model's 11.2% probability.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
No specific news event appears to correspond with the largest price movement in this market, a 23.0 percentage point drop on September 6. Research found no primary driver, such as social media activity or company announcements, to explain the decline from a 43.0% to 20.0% implied probability. The magnitude of the change is reportedly a common fluctuation for this market.
Similarly, no identified catalyst coincides with an earlier 9.0 percentage point spike on September 4. The price movements, on total volume of 953 contracts, have established a downward trend. The market, which resolves based on a year-over-year index for Uber Eats app downloads, opened with a 34.0% implied probability of the index exceeding 130 and is currently priced at 20.0%.
- Since last update (~9d): The overall edge flipped from 5.5pp to -0.2pp, driven by a -5.7pp model probability decrease.
- For "Above 140", the market's -19.0pp drop, a market_led shift, significantly widened the edge.
- Model-led shifts for "Above 126" saw a +3.8pp increase, widening the edge against a market drop.
- Model-led moves for "Above 138" decreased by -8.3pp, compressing the edge as market remained flat.
- September 2026 strategic expansions likely drive increased Uber Eats app downloads above 126.
- Model projects downloads Above 140 as possible, citing nationwide Costco partnership influence.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 134 | 20.0% | 19.8% | September 2026 strategic expansions, including Costco and Wakefern/ShopRite partnerships, are expected to boost app downloads. |
| Above 126 | 22.0% | 38.4% | September 2026 strategic expansions, including Costco and Wakefern/ShopRite partnerships, are expected to boost app downloads. |
| Above 136 | 16.0% | 16.4% | September 2026 strategic expansions, including Costco and Wakefern/ShopRite partnerships, are expected to boost app downloads. |
| Above 132 | 30.0% | 23.6% | September 2026 strategic expansions, including Costco and Wakefern/ShopRite partnerships, are expected to boost app downloads. |
| Above 138 | 13.0% | 13.6% | September 2026 strategic expansions, including Costco and Wakefern/ShopRite partnerships, are expected to boost app downloads. |
Current Context
Prediction markets show moderate confidence in Uber Eats' September app growth. As of September 9, 2026, contracts on one prediction market indicated a 36% probability that Uber Eats' September 2026 app downloads would exceed 130 on a year-over-year index (relative to a 100 baseline) [1]. The contract is scheduled to resolve on October 8, 2026, based on reported index values [1]. Official financial data and specific app download metrics for September 2026 have not been released by Uber Technologies, Inc. as of September 18, 2026, given that the third quarter of 2026 concludes on September 30, 2026 [2]. The most recent official financial data for Uber Technologies, Inc. covers the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, reported in a Form 10-Q filed on August 5, 2026 [2].
Uber's recent strategic moves aim to bolster its delivery segment. In September 2026, Uber expanded its Costco partnership to 47 states and committed to absorbing increased delivery driver wage costs [3]. The company continues to see strong growth in its delivery segment, with 40% growth in grocery and retail, and 26% overall delivery growth [4]. Additionally, Uber is in the process of a $14.8 billion acquisition of Delivery Hero, expected to close in the second half of 2027 [5]. In February 2026, Uber announced an agreement to acquire Getir’s delivery portfolio in Türkiye to expand its food, grocery, and retail delivery capabilities, with the food delivery portion anticipated to close in the second half of 2026 [6].
Sources (6)
- 1Uber Eats App Downloads in September - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2uber-20260630sec.gov
- 3Uber vows not to pass higher wage costs on to merchants on its platformafr.com
- 4Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Earnings Call Transcript & Summaryearningscalls.dev
- 5Delivery Hero Backs Uber's $14.8B Offer: UBER Analysis | LineVestlinevestnews.com
- 6Uber 8-Ksec.gov
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 140
📉 September 18, 2026: 89.0pp drop
Price decreased from 90.0% to 1.0%
What happened: Based on the provided research, there is no identified primary driver, including social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors, that explains an 89.0 percentage point drop in the "Uber Eats App Downloads in September" prediction market on September 18, 2026. The research explicitly states that no public news or widespread financial report regarding such a drop in app downloads for September 2026 was found [1]. In fact, Uber Technologies reported strong Q3 2026 delivery bookings growth, which would include September [1]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver, as no related social media activity or other causal event was discovered in the provided sources.
📈 September 15, 2026: 70.0pp spike
Price increased from 20.0% to 90.0%
What happened: The 70.0 percentage point spike in the "Uber Eats App Downloads in September" market on September 15, 2026, appears to have been primarily driven by anticipation of a significant traditional news announcement. Uber Technologies and Costco Wholesale announced a major national expansion of their partnership, bringing Costco delivery via Uber Eats to 47 states, on September 16, 2026 [2]. This impactful news, directly relevant to app downloads, likely prompted the market movement one day prior to its official release. No social media activity was identified, nor was Uber's concurrent announcement of a senior notes offering on September 15, 2026, relevant to app downloads [3]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, and the impending traditional news of the Costco partnership expansion was the primary driver.
Outcome: Above 134
📉 September 06, 2026: 23.0pp drop
Price decreased from 43.0% to 20.0%
What happened: No specific primary driver, including social media activity, could be identified for a 23.0 percentage point drop in the "Uber Eats App Downloads in September" prediction market on September 06, 2026. The research indicates that the reported 23.0pp change appears to be a common fluctuation magnitude observed in various prediction markets in 2026, rather than an event specifically tied to Uber Eats app downloads on that date [4][5]. Furthermore, no social media posts from influential figures or traditional news announcements explicitly reporting Uber Eats app downloads or correlating with such a market movement on September 06, 2026, were found [6][7][8][9][10]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this unattributable market movement.
📈 September 04, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 34.0% to 43.0%
What happened: The provided research does not identify a primary driver for the 9.0 percentage point spike in the "Uber Eats App Downloads in September" market on September 4, 2026. No social media activity from key figures or official news announcements, such as Uber SEC filings, were found to coincide with this specific date [6-13]. A significant Uber-Costco partnership expansion, which could impact downloads, was announced later on September 16, 2026, and thus lagged the reported price move [11]. Therefore, based on the available information, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver for this particular market movement.
Sources (11)
- 1Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Earnings Call Transcript & Summaryearningscalls.dev
- 2Uber Technologies, Inc. and Costco Wholesale Corporation Expand Nationwide Delivery Partnership on Uber Eats | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 3Uber 8-Ksec.gov
- 4Will average gas prices be above $4.30?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 5Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? — 66% | Orrery market check | Orreryorrery.me
- 6uber-20260630sec.gov
- 7https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1543151/000154315126000005/R2.htmsec.gov
- 8R30.htmsec.gov
- 9https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1543151/000154315126000032/R17.htmsec.gov
- 10R17.htmsec.gov
- 11Uber Expands Costco Delivery to 47 States on… | Pomegra Briefspomegra.io
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This prediction market contract resolves based on the total Uber Eats App Downloads for September 2026.
1. YES resolution: A "YES" resolution is triggered if the final reported total of Uber Eats App Downloads in September 2026 is strictly greater than the specific download threshold defined by the contract (e.g., "Above 126"). 2. NO resolution: A "NO" resolution is triggered if the final reported total of Uber Eats App Downloads in September 2026 is at or below the specific download threshold defined by the contract (e.g., "126 or less"). 3. Key dates/deadlines: The market uses data from September 2026. The settlement date, or maximum payout date, is October 7, 2026. 4. Special settlement conditions: The contract settles based on the total number of Uber Eats App Downloads accumulated over the entire month of September 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 130 | $0.99 | $0.95 | 36% |
| Above 132 | $0.99 | $0.96 | 30% |
| Above 126 | $0.99 | $0.90 | 22% |
| Above 134 | $0.99 | $0.98 | 20% |
| Above 136 | $0.99 | $0.99 | 16% |
| Above 138 | $0.99 | $0.99 | 13% |
| Above 140 | $0.89 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 142 | $0.97 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 146 | $0.72 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
As of September 9, 2026, prediction markets indicated a 36% probability that Uber Eats app downloads in September 2026 would exceed 130% of the previous year's level [1]. While Uber's Delivery segment reported strong year-over-year growth in bookings and revenue for 2026 [2][3][4], an Uber Eats partner noted lower-than-expected delivery volume [5], and social media commentary in September 2026 reflected frustrations with service quality and value [6][7]. Uber's official financial reports track metrics like Monthly Active Platform Consumers and Trips, rather than specific monthly app download numbers [8][9][10].
Sources (10)
- 1Uber Eats App Downloads in September - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2Uber: 12% Revenue Hides 24% Bookings Growth — the Multiple Is Fair, Not Cheapainvest.com
- 3Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Earnings Call Transcript & Summaryearningscalls.dev
- 4How Much Money Does Uber Eats Make? (2026 Data)eathealthy365.com
- 5https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1832483/000121390026090504/ea0302122-8k_serve.htmsec.gov
- 6'That's Not a Driver, It's a Bicyclist': This Uber Eats Customer Wants to Opt Out of Bicycle Deliveriesdailydot.com
- 7Reddit Sentiment Analyzerreddit.sentinel-team.org
- 8Documentsec.gov
- 9Documentsec.gov
- 10uber-20260331sec.gov
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score79Good
Market integrity is low (68), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score40High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score71Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What impact will Uber's expanded Costco partnership and other September 2026 promotions have on new user acquisition for Uber Eats?
| Uber Eats-Costco Partnership | Expanded nationwide delivery [1] |
|---|---|
| Kalshi Market 'Above 130' Probability | 36% for September 2026 [2] |
| Uber Delivery Segment | Includes growing list of grocery shops and retailers [3] |
Uber has expanded its Costco partnership, but direct impact data is unavailable. Uber has expanded its partnership with Costco, offering nationwide delivery services through Uber Eats [1]. However, no specific data is available that quantifies an increase in new user acquisition directly linked to this partnership for September 2026 [1]. Furthermore, information regarding other potential promotions for that month and their impact on user acquisition is not provided [1].
Market sentiment suggests uncertainty regarding September 2026 app download growth. A Kalshi prediction market, which measures year-over-year growth for Uber Eats App Downloads in September 2026 (with an index value above 100 indicating growth), highlights significant market uncertainty [2]. As of September 9, 2026, the market priced the probability of the Uber Eats App Downloads index being 'Above 130' at 36%, reflecting this uncertainty regarding the magnitude of year-over-year download growth for the month [2]. Uber's delivery segment continues its expansion, encompassing a diverse and growing list of grocery shops and retailers [3].
7. What do third-party app analytics from firms like Sensor Tower or data.ai indicate about Uber Eats' download trends in Q3 2026 relative to Q2 2026?
| Probability of YOY downloads > 130 | 36% (Kalshi, September 9, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Probability of YOY downloads > 132 | 30% (Kalshi, September 9, 2026) [1] |
| Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 Uber Eats downloads | Not publicly available from third-party app analytics firms [2] |
Specific third-party app analytics for Uber Eats' future downloads are unavailable. The provided information does not contain specific third-party app analytics from firms such as Sensor Tower or data.ai concerning Uber Eats' download trends in Q3 2026 relative to Q2 2026. While companies like Sensor Tower, formerly known as data.ai, specialize in digital intelligence and offer mobile app market insights, including download data, public-facing, real-time download volume reports for individual companies like Uber Eats for future periods are typically proprietary or exclusively available via their paid platforms [2].
Prediction markets provide year-over-year download probabilities for September 2026. As of September 9, 2026, prediction markets on Kalshi offer insights into "Uber Eats App Downloads in September" through a year-over-year index. These markets indicate a 36% probability that the year-over-year index will surpass 130, and a 30% probability that it will exceed 132 [1]. It is important to recognize that these probabilities originate from prediction markets and represent year-over-year comparisons, rather than direct third-party app analytics contrasting Q3 2026 trends with Q2 2026 [1].
8. How does Uber Eats' grocery delivery strategy, particularly its Costco partnership, compare to DoorDash's approach in the same segment during 2026?
| Uber Eats Costco Expansion | 47 states [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| DoorDash Dollar Tree SNAP/EBT Expansion | Thousands of stores in 48 states [4] |
| Uber Eats 'Above-130' Probability (Sep 9) | 36% [5][2] |
Uber Eats targets large grocery orders through a national Costco partnership. Uber Eats' 2026 grocery delivery strategy is characterized by a "scale-and-basket" approach, focusing on a nationally recognized warehouse partner through its Costco collaboration to generate larger planned grocery orders and facilitate cross-selling of nonfood goods [1][2][3]. This strategy includes an expansion across 47 states, intended to strengthen Uber Eats' national grocery credibility and potentially increase app acquisition [2]. While the Costco partnership could support Uber Eats app downloads in September through heightened awareness and new grocery users, a causal lift in downloads or specific market outcome has not been established; for example, the "Above-130" probability was recorded at 36% on September 9 [5][2].
DoorDash emphasizes retailer breadth and everyday utility, distinct from Uber Eats. In contrast, DoorDash's visible 2026 strategy is portfolio-oriented and inclusion-focused, highlighting retailer diversity and payment accessibility [4]. This is evidenced by its Dollar Tree SNAP/EBT expansion, which reaches thousands of stores in 48 states [4]. DoorDash aims to build habitual, everyday utility across value-oriented and local retail use cases, rather than relying on a single flagship relationship comparable to Uber's Costco partnership [4]. The primary competitive distinction lies in Uber Eats leveraging Costco to bolster national grocery credibility and potential app acquisition, while DoorDash focuses on establishing consistent, everyday utility [1][2][4].
Sources (5)
- 1Costco Expands Nationwide Delivery on Uber Eatsbusinesswire.com
- 2Uber and Costco expand Uber Eats delivery to 47 states - Quartzqz.com
- 3Costco expands partnership with Uber Eats for nationwide...shopping.yahoo.com
- 4News | DoorDashdoordash.news
- 5Uber Eats App Downloads in September - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
9. Which data providers will be the primary sources for determining Uber Eats' September 2026 download figures, and what is their historical accuracy compared to Uber's official reports?
| Kalshi Settlement Data Provider | Carbon Arc [1] |
|---|---|
| App Download Data Release | Apple and Google do not publicly release app-level download figures [2][3][4] |
| Uber App Download Reporting | Uber does not publish specific app download volume counts in public financial disclosures [5] |
Kalshi's Uber Eats predictions rely on Carbon Arc as a data provider. The Kalshi prediction market for Uber Eats' September 2026 app downloads uses "Carbon Arc" to settle its data [1]. However, current research does not provide details on Carbon Arc's historical accuracy or how its data compares to Uber's official reports, making it difficult to assess the reliability of its download figures [1].
Third-party providers offer app download estimates using proprietary methods. Mobile intelligence companies like Sensor Tower and Apptopia generate app download estimates through their own sampling and modeling, as Apple and Google do not publicly release granular app-level download figures [2][3][4]. The historical accuracy of these services is frequently debated, with users often noting discrepancies between the estimates from different providers and their own internal data [2][3][6]. Consequently, these tools are generally considered more useful for analyzing relative trends rather than for delivering precise, audited figures [2][3][6].
Uber's public reports do not include specific app download volumes. Uber Technologies, Inc. provides financial and operational metrics, such as total delivery bookings, to the SEC [5]. However, its standardized public financial reports do not disclose specific app download volumes [5]. Therefore, a direct comparison of app download accuracy against Uber's official figures is not feasible, as Uber does not publish these specific data points [5].
Sources (6)
- 1Uber Eats App Downloads in September - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2Apptopia vs. Sensor Tower Comparison 2026 - G2g2.com
- 3Compare Apptopia vs Sensor Tower 2026 | TrustRadiustrustradius.com
- 4data.ai (formerly App Annie): Now Part of Sensor Tower - Strataigizestrataigize.com
- 5S-1sec.gov
- 6How is this possible: r/iOSProgramming - Redditreddit.com
10. How might Uber's Q3 2026 decision to absorb higher driver wage costs affect its promotional spending and user growth incentives for Uber Eats?
| Delivery Segment Operating Income Growth (Q2 2026) | 38% to $1.1B (despite higher courier payments) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Driver Wage Costs (Q3 2026) | Uber decision to absorb higher costs [3] |
| Incentive Spending | Increased significantly to support supply [3] |
Uber Eats faces a balancing act due to increased labor costs. Uber's Q3 2026 decision to absorb higher driver wage costs for Uber Eats necessitates a careful balance with promotional spending to maintain growth [3]. Rising driver and courier pay in 2026 has pressured margins, requiring Uber to strategically manage these elevated labor costs against promotional investments to sustain ongoing growth. Incentive spending has notably increased to support supply [3].
Delivery segment performance remains robust despite rising courier payments. Despite increased courier payments, Uber's Delivery segment reported strong operating income growth in Q2 2026, rising 38% to $1.1 billion [1][2]. This growth was driven by increased revenue and advertising revenue, demonstrating the segment's ability to achieve operating income expansion even amidst higher labor expenses [1][2]. Additionally, Uber's overarching corporate strategy aims to enhance user acquisition and frequency through cross-platform engagement, expansion in 'sparse markets,' and scaling new offerings such as grocery and retail, all while addressing regulatory challenges associated with labor costs [4][5].
Sources (5)
- 1Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER) 10-Q Quarterly Report August 2026last10k.com
- 2Uber Technologies (UBER) Q2 FY2026 Earnings: $14.19B Revenueearningslens.ai
- 3Q2 2026 Rideshare Report: Premium Rides, Fees, and Driver Pay | Gridwisegridwise.io
- 4Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Earnings Call Transcript & Summaryearningscalls.dev
- 5Uber Stock: Just Keeps Getting Cheaperyoutube.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Recent expansions for Uber Eats include a partnership with Costco, extended to 47 states and nearly 600 warehouses [1]. The platform also added over 375 Wakefern/ShopRite locations [2]. Uber is integrating recent acquisitions, including Getir [3][4][5][6]. Further catalysts include continued expansion of grocery and retail partnerships and the integration of autonomous delivery technologies [7][8]. The Delivery segment, which includes Uber Eats and a growing list of grocery and retail partners, generated $4.477 billion in quarterly revenue in Q3 2025 [9][10][11][12].
For Q3 2026, Uber announced Gross Bookings guidance between $58.25 billion and $60.25 billion, representing 18%–22% YoY constant-currency growth, and non-GAAP EPS guidance of $0.84–$0.88 [3][4][5][6]. A prediction market on Kalshi, as of September 9, 2026, priced a greater-than-30% growth in Uber Eats app downloads for September 2026 at 36% probability [13]. Uber does not publicly disclose specific monthly app download counts, reporting instead on quarterly metrics such as Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPCs) and Trips, which primarily drive Delivery segment revenue and operational scale [14][15][7][10][11][12]. Bearish risks include foreign-exchange headwinds, intense competitive pressure, decelerating bookings growth, and market concerns regarding the long-term impact of autonomous vehicles on delivery take rates [6][16].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: October 15, 2026
- Closes: October 08, 2026
Sources (16)
- 1Uber Eats Adds 375+ Wakefern Supermarkets in Northeast Push | ABC Moneyabcmoney.co.uk
- 2Uber Expands Costco Delivery to 47 States on… | Pomegra Briefspomegra.io
- 3Uber Technologies, Inc. - Uber Announces Results for Second Quarter 2026investor.uber.com
- 4Q2 2026 Prepared Remarkss23.q4cdn.com
- 5Uber Announces Results for Second Quarter 2026finance.yahoo.com
- 6Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) Updates Q3 2026 Earnings Guidance - Transcript Dailytranscriptdaily.com
- 7uber-20260331sec.gov
- 8E26049 ex99 1.htmsec.gov
- 9Uber Stock: Just Keeps Getting Cheaperyoutube.com
- 10https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1543151/000154315125000033/R16.htmsec.gov
- 11Documentsec.gov
- 12Documentsec.gov
- 13Uber Eats App Downloads in September - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 14R17.htmsec.gov
- 15R30.htmsec.gov
- 16Uber: 12% Revenue Hides 24% Bookings Growth — the Multiple Is Fair, Not Cheapainvest.com
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 14 markets in this series
Outcomes: 11 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXUBEREAPP-26SEP07-T148: NO (Sep 07, 2026)
- KXUBEREAPP-26SEP07-T144: NO (Sep 07, 2026)
- KXUBEREAPP-26SEP07-T140: NO (Sep 07, 2026)
- KXUBEREAPP-26SEP07-T136: YES (Sep 07, 2026)
- KXUBEREAPP-26SEP07-T132: YES (Sep 07, 2026)
