Nasdaq-100 price on Apr 28, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Wall Street analysts project strong Q1 2026 EPS growth for key tech firms. As of January 2026, and largely reaffirmed in early March 2026, the consensus for the top seven Nasdaq-100 constituents, known as the 'Magnificent Seven,' indicated a robust aggregate year-over-year Q1 2026 EPS growth of approximately 25%, with projections ranging from 24% to 26% ^[1]. A significant portion of this anticipated strong performance, specifically between 40% and 50% of the incremental EPS growth for the group, was directly attributed to these companies' substantial investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and the subsequent expansion of AI-driven services and hardware sales ^[1].

Artificial intelligence will significantly boost earnings for several major constituents. Nvidia was anticipated to lead this group, with projected Q1 2026 EPS growth surging by over 60%, primarily fueled by its dominant position in AI chip markets ^[2]. Microsoft's Q1 2026 EPS growth was projected around 20%, driven by its Azure AI services and Copilot integrations ^[2]. Amazon's AWS division was forecast to drive much of its projected 18% EPS growth through increasing AI infrastructure spending by enterprises ^[2]. Alphabet was expected to achieve approximately 15% Q1 2026 EPS growth, with Gemini AI integrations being key drivers ^[3]. Meta Platforms was slated for about 22% Q1 2026 EPS growth, primarily benefiting from AI-enhanced advertising tools ^[4].

Other constituents show solid growth, with AI underpinning the overall outlook. While Apple and Tesla are integral to the Magnificent Seven's overall performance, their immediate Q1 2026 EPS growth projections of 10% and 8% respectively were seen by analysts as having less direct and explicit AI revenue stream attribution compared to the other five ^[2]. Nevertheless, AI advancements were implicitly expected to support their long-term growth trajectories ^[2]. The overall consensus highlighted AI as the paramount factor influencing the strong Q1 2026 earnings outlook for these leading technology firms ^[5].

A precise market-implied probability cannot be determined from the research. The provided research does not include the specific numerical data detailing market-implied probabilities for various Federal Reserve target rate ranges for the March 2026 FOMC meeting. Consequently, a definitive market-implied probability of the target rate being at or below 3.50% cannot be calculated based on the information given.

Calculating this probability requires specific numerical data from reliable sources. To determine the market-implied probability of the Federal Reserve's target rate being at or below 3.50% by the March 2026 FOMC meeting, one would typically sum the probabilities for all Federal Funds Target Rate ranges that are 3.50% or lower, such as 2.75% to 3.00% and 3.25% to 3.50% ^[1]. While sources indicate that probabilities for specific ranges for 2026 are tracked by MacroMicro, drawing from the CME FedWatch Tool ^[1], the actual numerical probability values for these ranges were absent from the provided research, making it impossible to compute the aggregate market-implied probability.

Goldman Sachs officially recommends overweighting US Large-Cap Growth and US Technology stocks. Their Q4 2025 and 2026 outlooks, including "Tech Tonic — a broadening bull market," advocate an overweight allocation for institutional clients heading into 2026 ^[3]. Goldman Sachs anticipates continued strength in these sectors, propelled by innovation and earnings growth, reflecting a favorable perspective ^[3]. This positive outlook is further reinforced by the December 2025 US Market Pulse, which underscores strong fundamentals for growth sectors ^[1].

Conversely, Morgan Stanley adopts a more cautious stance on US equities for 2026. Their Q4 2025 reports reflect a circumspect strategy, expressing concerns regarding market concentration and foreseeing a potentially more moderate growth environment for US equities ^[4]. While explicit numerical "overweight" or "underweight" recommendations for specific sectors like "US Large-Cap Growth" or "US Technology" are not detailed, Morgan Stanley's broader market commentary implies a neutral to defensive positioning for institutional portfolios ^[2]. They suggest caution about the ongoing outperformance of highly concentrated growth sectors, prioritizing diversification over strong emphasis on particular growth areas in their asset allocation strategies ^[2].

Legal analysts assign a low probability to Google's structural remedy. Legal and political risk analysts generally assign a low probability to a structural remedy, such as forced divestiture or breakup, being ordered in the Department of Justice's (DOJ) antitrust case against Google before April 2026. A prediction market indicates a 12% probability of Google undergoing a breakup by the end of 2025 ^[1]. Many legal experts consider a full breakup of Google a "long shot," suggesting remedies are more likely to focus on behavioral changes within Google's operations ^[2]. While the DOJ is reportedly interested in a breakup of Google's ad tech business ^[4], any court-ordered structural remedy would likely face an extensive appeals process, anticipated to last "several years" or extend "into 2026" ^[4].

FTC seeks Amazon structural remedies, but probabilities are unknown. In the separate antitrust case against Amazon, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has explicitly stated its intention to seek a structural remedy, which could include potential divestiture ^[3]. However, available research does not provide specific probabilities or timelines from legal or political risk analysts regarding the likelihood of such a structural remedy being ordered by a court in the Amazon case before April 2026 ^[3]. A judge has ordered the FTC to clarify the specific remedies it is pursuing, indicating that discussions around potential structural changes are ongoing ^[3].

Reaching 25,000 by 2026 requires a 32.9x forward P/E. Assuming the Nasdaq-100 meets the consensus 2026 full-year Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimate of $760.00 ^[1], the index would need to trade at a forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiple of approximately 32.9x to attain the 25,000 level. This valuation is derived by dividing the target index value of 25,000 by the estimated 2026 full-year EPS of $760.00 ^[1].

This P/E significantly exceeds recent and prior historical averages. Comparing the required 32.9x P/E multiple to past periods reveals it is considerably higher than historical valuations. During the 2018-2021 Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) era, the Nasdaq-100's forward P/E averaged around 27.5x, experiencing notable peaks in late 2020 and early 2021 ^[2]. Furthermore, the 2003-2007 period preceding the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) saw the index maintain a substantially lower average forward P/E of approximately 19.7x ^[2]. Therefore, achieving the 25,000 target by 2026 would necessitate the Nasdaq-100 sustaining a valuation multiple that surpasses its average during the recent ZIRP environment and is substantially greater than its valuation before the 2008 financial crisis.